Group 1: Market Overview - In March, the bond market faced significant challenges, with the 10-year government bond yield starting at 1.70% and closing at 1.80%, peaking at 1.90% during the month[1] - The bond market experienced a "dramatic adjustment" followed by a "gradual recovery" after March 17, when the central bank's attitude softened, leading to a recovery in long-term interest rates[1] - The seasonal easing of liquidity in April is expected to be a key driver for the bond market, with historical data showing a decrease in funding rates in April compared to March[2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The central bank has a history of implementing reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts in April, with reductions of 0.25 percentage points in April 2022 and March 2023, and a potential cut of 0.50 percentage points in February 2024[2] - April typically sees a significant tax payment period, with monthly tax payments exceeding CNY 1.5 trillion, which could create liquidity fluctuations[2] - The net issuance of government bonds in April is historically low, averaging CNY 639 billion for national bonds and CNY 2.13 trillion for local bonds, indicating minimal disruption to liquidity[2] Group 3: Risk Factors - The imposition of tariffs by the U.S. on April 2 may increase global market risk aversion, potentially pushing bond yields down and impacting equity markets[3] - High-frequency data suggests that March exports did not show significant improvement, with container shipping rates declining by 11.1% compared to February, indicating weakening export demand[3] - If export data shows a significant slowdown, it may trigger policy responses, including potential RRR cuts and accelerated government bond issuance[3] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Non-bank institutions are expected to regain pricing power in the bond market as the market stabilizes in Q2, with funds likely to increase their bond allocations[4] - The insurance sector is anticipated to enhance its bond allocation in April, particularly favoring long-term local bonds, which may see a return to average spreads with government bonds[4] - The strategy for April should focus on higher spread protection durations to mitigate market volatility during uncertain periods[4]

Group 1: Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 382 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation on March 4, with an operation rate of 1.5%. On the same day, 318.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 280.3 billion yuan [2][3]. - The central bank's recent operations indicate a net withdrawal of funds for two consecutive days in March, which does not hinder the overall liquidity in the market [3]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Bonds - The latest one-year interbank certificates of deposit traded around 1.99%, showing little change from the previous day [5]. - Major interbank bond yields initially declined but then fluctuated and turned upward. For instance, the 1-year government bond yield was at 1.4600%, while the 10-year yield was at 1.7175% [7]. - The recent trends in city investment bonds (AAA) across various maturities indicate changes in yield spreads [8]. Group 3: Global Economic Insights - The Reserve Bank of Australia indicated a stronger case for interest rate cuts, expressing concerns over economic downturn risks and the potential for prolonged tight monetary policy. If inflation persists, rates may remain at 4.1% for an extended period or could be increased [11]. Group 4: Bond Market Events - The National People's Congress Standing Committee will strengthen supervision over government debt management. Additionally, work has begun on issuing 2 trillion yuan of replacement bonds by 2025 [13]. - Longfor Group successfully redeemed the "20 Longfor 04" bond, with a total redemption amount of 2.5 billion yuan [13].

央行公开市场开展141亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有891亿元逆回购到期。净回笼750亿元。 资金面均衡宽松，资金价格回落，DR001下行至1.45%。 在懂的行情里搏杀，你是猎手；在不懂的行情里搏杀，你就是猎物。 什么行情是看得懂的行情呢？就是那些可识别、有明显特征的情景或走势，这需要我们自己去总结、运用和修正，最后融会贯通、知行合一。 ——笔记哥《交易》 【笔记20250106— 股债都不听话（+股市继续下跌+资金面均衡宽松=中下)】 资金面均衡宽松，长债收益率明显下行。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 01. 06) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.53 | 21 | | 2. 30 | 0 | 67619.89 | 6227. 17 ...

看大势者不做逆势交易，熊市中交易要做亏，牛市中交易要踏空。 熊市中不对回暖有幻想，每次回暖都是出逃的机会；牛市中不对回调有恐惧，每次回调都是加仓的机会。 国家统计局原发言人姚景源今天表示："扩大消费得先让老百姓有钱，谁有钱不会花钱，还用专家指导?" 【笔记20241220— 听话踏空（+强化首席经济学家自律管理+资金面宽松=大下)】 资金面均衡宽松，长债收益率大幅下行。 央行今日公开市场开展1016亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率为1.50%。今日2051亿元逆回购到期。净回笼1035亿元。 资金面均衡宽松，DR007加权利率下至1.57%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2024. 12. 20) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.54 | -5 ...