Group 1 - The spring market rally has entered its second half, characterized by reduced trading volume and rising prices, as regulatory signals promote a return to rationality in the market [4][6][10] - The average maximum increase of the Shanghai Composite Index during the past 16 spring rallies was 15.8%, while the current rally has seen a maximum increase of 9.8%, indicating potential for further price increases [10][12] - Economic data is showing positive trends, with expectations for a continued rally supported by improving PPI figures and favorable policies from the government [10][20] Group 2 - The focus of the market is shifting from risk appetite to earnings growth, with a notable increase in the proportion of companies reporting positive earnings forecasts, reaching 37.8% as of January 17 [13][19] - The reduction in competitive pressure (internal competition) is leading to a significant increase in the proportion of companies with improved earnings, particularly in industries such as steel, construction materials, and media [20][22] - The overall improvement in earnings among non-financial companies in the A-share market is evident, with a 5.8% increase in the proportion of companies reporting positive net profit growth [20][22] Group 3 - Investment recommendations focus on sectors with strong earnings growth expectations, including non-bank financials, cyclical industries, and technology innovation [23][24] - Non-bank financials have shown the highest proportion of earnings revisions, with a 400% increase in companies adjusting their profit forecasts positively [23][24] - Cyclical sectors such as materials and energy are expected to benefit from fiscal stimulus and demand-side support, with significant upward revisions in profit forecasts [23][24]

Report Summary Investment Rating The document does not mention the investment rating for the industry. Core Views - **Steel**: Steel prices are facing resistance from previous highs, and chasing the upward trend should wait for a breakthrough. The macro - environment is generally favorable, but the fundamentals show a pattern of strong raw materials and weak finished products, with steel mill profits continuing to compress. The upward drive depends on cost - push factors, while the downward drive comes from the accumulation of contradictions in the steel industry chain after复产 [6][8]. - **Iron Ore**: Ore prices are returning downward, but there is still macro - support. Overseas supply is at a high level year - on - year, but Brazilian shipments are weak. Demand is supported by pre - Spring Festival restocking, and there is a risk of upward drive deviating from the fundamentals [77][79]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Driven by events and valuation repair, the rhythm is more important than the trend. The supply - demand structure is subtly changing, and coking coal and coke will maintain a high - level volatile pattern. The contradiction between supply and demand is still accumulating [127]. - **Ferroalloys**: The fundamentals will remain stable in the short term, and attention should be paid to the supply rhythm. The alloy prices are oscillating, and the cost and demand sides have different impacts on silicon iron and manganese silicon [214][216]. - **Steam Coal**: The short - term market is in a weak adjustment, and attention should be paid to the impact of abnormal weather. The supply is stable currently but may shrink before the Spring Festival, demand may be boosted by cold air, and inventory at northern ports is high [291][292]. Summary by Directory 1. Steel Weekly View - **Logic**: Steel prices are facing resistance from previous highs, and chasing the upward trend should wait for a breakthrough [6]. - **Macro - aspect**: The domestic macro - environment is generally favorable, with the central economic work conference re - emphasizing "anti - involution" and the improvement and stabilization of the real estate market expectation [8][11]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand pattern of steel is loose, but the cost supports the rebound of the disk price. Steel mill profits continue to compress. Technically, black chain indexes and related contracts face previous high pressure [8]. - **Upward Drive**: The upward breakthrough of black commodities depends on cost - push factors, such as policy - restricted coal supply contraction and sudden disturbances in the iron ore supply end [8]. - **Downward Drive**: The accumulation of contradictions in the steel industry chain after复产 and the release of high - inventory liquidity in iron ore may lead to a decline [8]. 2. Iron Ore Weekly View - **Supply**: Overseas overall shipments are at a high level year - on - year, but Brazilian shipments are weak both year - on - year and month - on - month. The freight rates from Australia and Brazil to China are falling [78][79]. - **Demand**: The blast furnace start - up rate has decreased month - on - month but is still relatively high year - on - year. Pre - Spring Festival restocking demand may support iron ore demand [79]. - **Macro - level**: The central bank's decision to cut re - loan and re - discount rates has rekindled market expectations for interest rate cuts, providing some support for short - term domestic risk asset valuations [79]. - **Contract Performance**: The main 05 contract price has weakened oscillatingly, with an increase in positions and a decrease in trading volume [83]. - **Spot Price**: The prices of medium - grade goods are relatively firm, with small declines [85]. 3. Coking Coal and Coke View - **Supply**: Domestic coal mine production has returned to normal, with smooth shipments. Import volume has increased, and the inventory in the regulatory area is being depleted [125]. - **Demand**: Coke has started the first round of price increases. The iron ore demand is supported by the raw material rigid demand, and iron ore is expected to rise again after the end of maintenance [128]. - **Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory has increased month - on - month, and the inventory has begun to transfer downstream [128]. - **View Summary**: Driven by events and valuation repair, the supply - demand structure is subtly changing, and coking coal and coke will maintain a high - level volatile pattern [127]. 4. Ferroalloys Weekly View - **Price Movement**: The alloy prices are oscillating, and the disk center of gravity has moved down further. The cost side may support the disk to maintain an oscillating pattern [216]. - **Macro**: The central bank has clarified its key work in 2026, and there is no significant overseas news [216]. - **Micro**: The iron ore output has decreased slightly month - on - month, and the demand for raw materials is weakly supported [216]. - **Fundamentals**: For silicon iron, the cost has decreased, and the explicit inventory has decreased. For manganese silicon, the cost is supported, but the supply expansion plan in the north and the accumulation of inventory suppress the price [216]. 5. Steam Coal - **Supply**: Currently, coal mines are producing normally, and supply is stable. However, supply may shrink before the Spring Festival. In 2025, the national coal production and import had certain changes, and the coal production increment may narrow in 2026 [291]. - **Demand**: The cold air will strengthen in the next 10 days, which may boost daily consumption. Currently, the power plant's daily consumption has declined, and the market is only making sporadic purchases [291]. - **Inventory**: The sentiment at northern ports is weak, and the port inventory has increased due to wind - induced navigation closures. It may decline slightly later [292]. - **Main Logic**: The short - term coal price may be oscillatingly weak, and attention should be paid to the impact of abnormal weather [292]. - **Outlook**: The impact of nuclear - reducing production capacity is unclear, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies and terminal restocking [292].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.45% and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index up 1.14% and 1% respectively, indicating a divergence in market trends as institutions provide insights on future movements [2] Group 1: Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities highlights that the adjustment of financing margins does not affect the overall upward trend of the market but impacts its structure, emphasizing the importance of performance indicators as the annual report preview period approaches [2] - Huaxi Securities maintains that the slow bull trend of A-shares remains intact, with a focus on sectors showing high growth or improving conditions as macro policies support economic recovery [3] - Galaxy Securities notes that investor sentiment is highly active, with a continuous increase in margin trading balances, indicating a stable long-term bullish foundation for the market despite short-term fluctuations [4] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities are identified along two main lines: the acceleration of global changes favoring technology innovation and growth sectors, and the recovery of manufacturing and resource sectors due to improved supply-demand dynamics [5] - The first main line focuses on technology sectors such as AI and robotics, while the second emphasizes the recovery paths for industries like non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals [5] - Auxiliary opportunities include the continuation of consumption policies aimed at boosting demand and the trend of companies expanding their profitability through international markets [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Insights - In the previous two cyclical bull markets, alpha leading stocks significantly outperformed the basic chemical sector. These leaders possess both supply-demand improvements and cost advantages, leading to price elasticity and sustainable low-cost expansion. In cyclical bull markets, they exhibit performance drivers of volume and price increases, providing excess returns for investors [2][6][38]. - The report emphasizes the importance of investing in high-quality leading companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Longbai Group, Yangnong Chemical, Huafeng Chemical, and Boyuan Chemical [2][6][38]. Summary by Sections Introduction: Why Focus on Leading Stocks in Cyclical Bull Markets? - The PPI (Producer Price Index) has shown a continuous narrowing of decline and is expected to turn positive by October 2025. This indicates a potential recovery in industrial product pricing and an improvement in market demand and supply conditions. The chemical industry, as a key industrial raw material, is likely to reflect these changes first, suggesting a transition from demand stagnation to a new round of inventory replenishment or capacity adjustment [4][14]. Performance of Alpha Leaders in Previous Cyclical Bull Markets - The report analyzes the stock selection and performance of alpha leaders during the last two cyclical bull markets (2016-2018 and 2020-2021). The selected stocks include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Longbai Group, and Yangnong Chemical, with the addition of Huafeng Chemical and Boyuan Chemical in the second round. The performance data shows that these leaders significantly outperformed the basic chemical index [5][18]. - In the first cycle (2016-2018), the highest stock price increases for these leaders were 488.9% for Wanhua Chemical, 281.4% for Hualu Hengsheng, 147.7% for Longbai Group, and 247.5% for Yangnong Chemical, with an average increase of 291.4%. The basic chemical index saw a maximum increase of around 39% during the same period [18][19]. - In the second cycle (2020-2021), the highest increases were 311.0% for Wanhua Chemical, 276.5% for Hualu Hengsheng, 314.2% for Longbai Group, 188.0% for Yangnong Chemical, 290.1% for Huafeng Chemical, and 728.7% for Boyuan Chemical, with an average increase of 351.4% compared to a maximum of 136% for the basic chemical index [18][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality leading companies for investment opportunities, as they are expected to benefit from supply-demand improvements and cost advantages. The overall chemical sector is currently at a low point, but with anticipated global economic growth, demand for chemical products is expected to increase. The report also highlights the potential for a recovery in PPI and chemical prices in 2026 [6][38][39].

Group 1: Economic Trends and Shifts - The year 2025 is identified as a significant turning point for the Chinese economy and market, with a notable shift in the perception of China's innovation capabilities and competitiveness in the global economic system [5] - The term "Deep Seek moment" reflects China's accelerated pace in the key technology field of artificial intelligence, surpassing previous expectations [5] - The return of "animal spirits" in the industry indicates a collective optimistic outlook, leading to increased investments and expansions among enterprises [6] Group 2: Innovation and Market Dynamics - Despite the emergence of many innovative companies, there is a challenge regarding the profitability of some firms not keeping pace with their innovation [8] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to optimize market competition ecology, ensuring that innovative firms receive reasonable returns, which could alleviate macroeconomic pressures like demand shortages and low prices [9] - The current economic environment shows similarities to past supply-side structural reforms, but the "anti-involution" approach addresses new characteristics such as simultaneous demand growth and declining profit margins in industries like automotive [9] Group 3: Service Consumption Potential - The development potential of the service sector is crucial for domestic demand, with current spending on services being relatively low compared to physical goods [11] - Key areas for service consumption growth include entertainment, healthcare, and public services, with specific constraints identified such as limited leisure time and the need for improved service quality [12] - The aging population is expected to drive demand for healthcare services, necessitating a focus on high-quality, personalized medical services alongside basic healthcare accessibility [12] Group 4: External Demand Trends - The trend of enterprises "going global" is anticipated to remain significant over the next five years, indicating a focus on expanding international markets [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Glass**: Short - term weakness and medium - term oscillation. Short - term factors include forward premium, inventory pressure, and off - season influence. Mid - term bullish drivers are anti - deflation, anti - involution policies, and potential production cuts in the glass industry. However, high forward premium, high inventory, and supply contraction factors also exist. The price is expected to fluctuate between the upward drive of production cut expectations and the downward pressure of weak demand and weak basis [4][6]. - **Soda Ash**: Short - term weakness and medium - term oscillation. The core driving forces of pressure are supply surplus, high forward premium in futures, and potential demand reduction from downstream production cuts. It needs large - scale production cuts in soda ash or continuous improvement in the glass industry to drive the market. The price is supported by limited downward space and suppressed by long - term supply surplus and potential production cuts in the glass industry [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Supply - Current production capacity is about 150,000 tons per day, with a peak of 178,000 tons per day in 2021. In 2025, the total daily melting volume of cold - repaired production lines was 21,330 tons, and that of newly ignited production lines was 15,010 tons. There are also potential new ignition, old - line复产, and cold - repair production lines with certain daily melting volumes. Usually, production cuts are likely to occur from the end of the fourth quarter to the first quarter [10][11][15]. Price and Profit - Prices in most regions are stable with little change, but market transactions declined in the second half of the week. The basis strengthened due to the decline in futures prices. Profits for different fuel types are negative, with petroleum coke at about - 7 yuan/ton, natural gas at about - 186 yuan/ton, and coal at about - 74 yuan/ton [19][24][28]. Inventory and Downstream开工 - After New Year's Day, transactions improved and inventory decreased, but transactions declined in the second half of the week. Current inventory is relatively high, and regional arbitrage shows little change in price differences [36][41]. Photovoltaic Glass Price and Profit - Market transactions have weakened recently, and this situation is expected to continue. The prices of 2.0mm and 3.2mm coated panels are stable compared with last week [45][47]. Capacity and Inventory - Market transactions are weak, and inventory in some regions has increased. The sample inventory days are about 38.94 days, a 3.07% decrease from the previous week [49][55]. Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - Some plants have resumed production, and the operating rate is gradually increasing. The overall capacity utilization rate is 86.82%, up 2.43% from last week. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.575 million tons, a 0.15% increase from last week and a 10.06% increase year - on - year [2][58][62]. Price and Profit - The low - end price in the Shahe area is 1,140 yuan/ton, and the market price has slightly decreased. Factory ex - factory prices are mostly stable. The basis strengthened as futures prices declined. The profit of the joint - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) is - 40 yuan/ton, and that of the ammonia - alkali method in North China is - 58 yuan/ton [70][73][77].

Report Information - Report Title: "Ribbed Bar & Hot-Rolled Coil Weekly Report" [1] - Analyst: Li Yafei [2] - Date: January 18, 2026 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The prices of ribbed bars and hot-rolled coils are facing resistance from previous highs, and chasing the rise should wait until the prices break through [3][5] 3. Summary Based on Directory Macro and Fundamental Analysis - **Macro Environment**: Domestic macro environment is generally positive. The Central Economic Work Conference mentioned "anti-involution", and an article in Qiushi Journal aimed to improve and stabilize the real estate market expectations [5][8] - **Black Industry Chain**: Coking coal supply is facing tightening disturbances, and coal and coke prices are strong. Iron ore prices are fluctuating at high levels due to the expected resumption of hot metal production and steel mills' winter storage replenishment. The supply and demand pattern of steel is loose, but costs support the rebound of the futures price. Steel mills' profits continue to be compressed [5] - **Upside Drivers**: The upward breakthrough of black commodities depends on cost-push factors, such as policy constraints on coal supply contraction or sudden disturbances in the iron ore supply end. Relying on steel demand alone cannot form a smooth positive feedback market [5] - **Downside Drivers**: After the resumption of production, the accumulation of steel contradictions may trigger a negative feedback in the industrial chain. The release of high inventory liquidity of iron ore may lead to the decline of the spot price leading the futures price [5] Ribbed Bar Fundamental Data - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spread of ribbed bars show a pattern of weak current situation and strong expectations, suitable for reverse arbitrage. Last week, the Shanghai ribbed bar spot price was 3300 (+10) yuan/ton, the 05 contract price was 3163 (+19) yuan/ton, the 05 contract basis was 137 (-9) yuan/ton, and the 05 - 10 spread was -49 (+3) yuan/ton [14][18] - **Demand**: New home sales remain at a low level, indicating weak market confidence. Traditional off - season leads to a decline in demand [19][22][23] - **MS Weekly Data**: Supply and demand are both weak, and inventory is at a healthy level. Long - and short - process supply and inventory data show different trends [24][26] - **Production Profit**: With the expected resumption of steel mills' production and inventory replenishment, the on - screen profit of ribbed bars is shrinking. Last week, the spot profit was 165 (+10) yuan/ton, the main contract profit was 137 (+34) yuan/ton, and the East China ribbed bar valley - electricity profit was 197 (-15) yuan/ton [28][31] Hot - Rolled Coil Fundamental Data - **Basis and Spread**: Similar to ribbed bars, the basis and spread of hot - rolled coils also show a pattern of weak current situation and strong expectations, suitable for reverse arbitrage. Last week, the Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot price was 3300 (+30) yuan/ton, the 05 contract futures price was 3315 (+21) yuan/ton, the 05 contract basis was -15 (+9) yuan/ton, and the 05 - 10 spread was -21 (+3) yuan/ton [33][37] - **Demand**: Demand is flat during the traditional off - season. However, exports remain at a high level through price - for - volume strategy [38][39] - **MS Weekly Data**: Hot - rolled coil inventory is relatively high, and production cuts are needed to reduce inventory. Production is maintained at a low level [46][47] - **Production Profit**: With the expected resumption of steel mills' production and inventory replenishment, the on - screen profit of hot - rolled coils is shrinking. Last week, the spot profit was 2 (+30) yuan/ton, and the main contract profit was 139 (+36) yuan/ton [49][52] Variety Regional Difference - The report shows the regional price differences of ribbed bars, cold - rolled coils, hot - rolled coils, and medium - thick plates, including differences between cities such as Shanghai, Tianjin, Beijing, and Guangzhou [59][60][62][63][65] Cold - Rolled Coil and Medium - Thick Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - The report provides seasonal data on the total inventory, production, and apparent consumption of cold - rolled coils and medium - thick plates [66][67]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the logistics and transportation sector, including SF Holding and Jitu Express [6]. Core Insights - The strategic alliance between Jitu Express and SF Holding aims to enhance cross-border logistics and network expansion, leveraging each company's strengths for better collaboration and market reach [1][3]. - The oil shipping market is experiencing a rise in freight rates due to geopolitical risks and optimistic sentiment among shipowners, with a focus on companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy [2][12]. - The express delivery sector is expected to see significant growth, with a projected 8% increase in business volume in 2026, driven by overseas e-commerce growth and the strategic partnership between Jitu and SF [3][17]. Summary by Sections Weekly Insights and Market Review - The transportation sector index fell by 0.94% in the week of January 12-16, 2026, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.49 percentage points [1][18]. - The top-performing segments included shipping, public transport, and express delivery, with respective gains of 1.51%, 1.42%, and 0.93% [18]. Aviation - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from low supply growth and recovering demand, with a focus on business travel and international flight recovery [11][26]. Shipping and Ports - VLCC freight rates have significantly increased due to concentrated shipments from the Middle East and West Africa, with rates reaching $99,627 per day [2][12]. - The dry bulk shipping market is facing a decline in rates, particularly for Cape-sized vessels, due to slow recovery in demand [13][14]. Logistics - The express delivery sector is highlighted with two main investment themes: international expansion through the Jitu and SF partnership and the internal competition dynamics among leading express companies [3][17]. - The express delivery business volume is projected to grow by approximately 8% in 2026, despite a slowdown in growth rates due to market saturation and price increases [17].

Core Insights - The electric vehicle (EV) industry in China is transitioning from reliance on government policies to market-driven growth, marking the end of the "policy infusion" era and the beginning of "self-sustaining" operations [2][4][17] Group 1: Market Dynamics - In 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China surpassed 50%, reaching 59.5% by November, indicating a significant shift towards electric vehicles [5][25] - The charging infrastructure has improved significantly, with a total of 19.32 million charging points by the end of November 2025, a 52% year-on-year increase, and over 5,000 battery swap stations established [5][25] - The competition landscape has changed, with Tesla's retail sales in China declining by 4.8% to 625,698 units, while domestic brands like BYD, Geely, and Changan have seen substantial growth [5][27] Group 2: Sales Performance - BYD led the NEV sales in 2025 with 3.48 million units sold, despite a 6.3% year-on-year decline, holding a market share of 27.2% [6][27] - Geely and Changan reported significant sales increases of 81.3% and 26.8%, respectively, with Geely selling 1.56 million units and Changan 789,141 units [6][27] - New entrants like Leap Motor and Xiaomi have emerged as strong competitors, with Leap Motor's sales increasing by 86.3% to 529,503 units and Xiaomi entering the rankings with 411,837 units, a 200.9% increase [6][27] Group 3: Technological Advancements - The focus on "intelligent driving" has intensified, with companies like BYD, NIO, and Xpeng launching advanced driver-assistance systems and AI-driven models [11][32] - Despite advancements, there remains a gap between technology and user experience, with consumers expressing concerns over the reliability of intelligent driving systems [11][35] - The industry is witnessing a shift towards more comprehensive AI models that aim to enhance decision-making capabilities in complex driving scenarios [12][33] Group 4: Future Outlook - Starting in 2026, the EV industry will face new challenges as the government reduces subsidies, shifting the focus to market-driven strategies and user experience [15][38] - The competitive landscape is expected to evolve with a mix of pure electric, hybrid, and range-extended vehicles, as traditional automakers and new entrants adapt to changing consumer preferences [19][40] - Companies are increasingly looking to expand internationally, marking a new phase of competition that emphasizes technology depth, cost efficiency, and brand loyalty [20][41]

Core Insights - In 2025, China's automotive industry achieved record production and sales figures, with 34.53 million vehicles produced and 34.40 million sold, marking year-on-year growth of 10.4% and 9.4% respectively, showcasing resilience and vitality in the sector [1] - The year marked a significant shift in the market, with new energy vehicles (NEVs) surpassing 50% of domestic new car sales, indicating their transition from niche products to mainstream market leaders [2][3] - The automotive export volume exceeded 7 million units, with NEV exports reaching 2.615 million units, reflecting a robust growth trajectory and the establishment of overseas markets as new growth drivers [2][11] New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) as Market Leaders - NEVs accounted for 50.8% of domestic new car sales in 2025, with production and sales reaching 16.626 million and 16.49 million units respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 29% and 28.2% [3] - The competitive landscape has shifted, with domestic brands capturing nearly 70% of the passenger car market share, marking a significant reversal against joint venture brands [3][4] Technological and Policy Support - The growth of NEVs is attributed to supportive policies, technological advancements, and a well-structured supply chain, with over 11.5 million vehicles replaced under the trade-in policy, contributing to a sales boost of over 1.6 trillion yuan [5] - Innovations in technology have led to improved vehicle performance, with average electric vehicle ranges reaching around 500 kilometers and significant reductions in battery costs and charging times [6] Smart Driving Developments - The approval of the first L3-level conditional autonomous driving vehicles in December 2025 marks a pivotal moment in China's autonomous driving sector, transitioning from technology validation to mass production [7][9] - The penetration rate of vehicles equipped with L2-level driving assistance features reached 64% in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by decreasing costs and increased availability in lower-priced models [9] Global Expansion and Localization - China's automotive exports reached 7.098 million units in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 21.1%, highlighting the importance of overseas markets for growth [11] - Localization efforts are intensifying, with over 20 Chinese automotive brands establishing manufacturing facilities in Thailand and Brazil, enhancing local production capabilities and supply chain integration [12] Market Competition Restructuring - The introduction of compliance guidelines aims to curb price wars and establish a more orderly competitive environment, shifting focus from price competition to quality and service [13][15] - The automotive industry is transitioning from a phase of scale expansion to one of quality enhancement, necessitating a comprehensive approach to governance and market regulation [15][16]