Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Polypropylene is in a phase of oscillating downward, and the price center is expected to decline in the future. In late 2024, multiple new units were put into operation intensively, and the production of units in 2025 continued throughout the year, resulting in huge production pressure. Meanwhile, the existing production load was also high, leading to a supply much higher than the historical average. Although the demand has entered the traditional peak season, the support is limited. Overall, due to over - capacity, the supply - demand relationship is weak, and the expectation of crude oil on the cost side is also weak, so the price center of polypropylene is expected to move down oscillatingly [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Basis and Spread - **Basis**: Affected by the tariff storm and the sharp decline in crude oil, the PP price dropped significantly at the beginning of the week but temporarily stopped falling and stabilized due to supply concerns. The East China basis remained at around - 20 yuan/ton, the North China basis ranged from 10 to - 100 yuan/ton, and the South China basis strengthened from 80 to - 70 yuan/ton. The non - standard basis showed a similar trend but was generally stronger than the standard product [19]. - **Regional Spread**: The North China - East China spread was relatively strong, while the South China - East China spread was at a low level. The spread between injection molding - drawing and low - melt copolymer - drawing in the non - standard basis changed little [30][31]. - **Related Product Spread**: The 5 - 9 monthly spread of the futures strengthened to 124 during the week and then fell back to 76, indicating a weaker far - month expectation. The L - PP06 spread weakened to a minimum of 50 this week, and the PP - Wh spread increased slightly. The significant decline in the L - P3 spread was due to the potential production loss of the BBI process on the PP supply side caused by the propane import tariff counter - measure and the weaker demand for PE after the peak season. With the large - scale restart of Iranian plants, the load recovered and the shipping volume exceeded expectations, MA dropped sharply, and the MTO profit was significantly repaired to the level of the same period last year [36]. 3.2 Domestic Production - End Profit and Supply - **Production Profit**: After the sharp decline last week, the crude oil price oscillated this week. The oil - making profit improved due to the weakening of the cost side. On April 4, the tariff on imported propane from the US increased, which would increase the import cost of liquefied petroleum gas in the short term and tighten the domestic supply. In the long term, the domestic pricing target may shift to ether - after carbon four. High production and weak demand led to a decline in coal prices, resulting in good CTO profits, and the decline in methanol prices in the production area slightly improved MTO profits [41][42]. - **Domestic Output and Load**: This week, the PP output was 73.16 tons (- 0.04 tons), and the operating rate was 76.38% (- 0.05%). The supply loss of PP was 19.28 tons, including 12.47 tons of maintenance loss and 6.81 tons of production reduction loss. The previously shut - down units restarted one after another, the maintenance volume decreased, and the supply increased. In the future, attention should be paid to the maintenance of PDR units. On the other hand, the significant repair of oil - making profit increased the willingness to start production [8][59]. - **Scheduling Ratio**: An increase in the drawing scheduling ratio may indicate that the standard product is stronger than the non - standard product in the short term, but the medium - term supply pressure may increase [78]. 3.3 US Dollar Price and Import - Export Profit - **US Dollar Price and Spread**: The prices in Europe and the US declined, especially in Northwest Europe. Asian prices mostly fell, and CFR Far East was greatly affected by the tariff policy. The demand in Southeast Asia was weak, and market transactions were cautious. The South Asian prices remained stable. The spread between CFR China and Northwest Europe was at a low level [87][88]. - **Import - Export Profit**: Although the RMB exchange rate weakened, the concern about tariffs led to a significant decline in overseas inquiries and export transactions, making it difficult to consume resources. On the import side, the overseas offers were few and expensive, and imports were blocked [104]. 3.4 Downstream Operating Rate - The downstream is still in the peak season. The comprehensive operating rate decreased slightly by 0.03% month - on - month. In the future, attention should be paid to the impact of tariff policies on the downstream. The operating rate of plastic weaving remained flat, the demand for fertilizer bags continued, and the demand for cement and food was also acceptable. In addition, the operating rate of injection molding increased by 1.2%, and the operating rate of pipes decreased by 0.8%. As the temperature rises, the demand for storage boxes, milk tea cups, and disposable transparent products continues to be released [9][107]. 3.5 Inventory - The inventory of production enterprises increased by 2.07 tons to 63.71 tons, including a 1.07 - ton increase in the inventory of two major oil companies and a 0.7 - ton increase in the inventory of coal - chemical enterprises. The market risk - aversion sentiment increased, and the downstream purchasing willingness weakened. The inventory of traders decreased by 0.54 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.02 tons. Due to the decrease in overseas inquiries and the decline in export transactions, the port inventory fluctuated slightly [10][123].

任何企业也难以抵御周期的力量。 有中国 "锂矿双雄" 之称的天齐锂业 (002466.SZ) 与赣锋锂业 (002460.SZ) ，一个掌控锂矿资源 储量世界第一，一个则拥有着世界上最大与品质最好的锂矿资源，在 "周期熊" 强烈冲击下也深 陷 "降速巨亏" 泥潭。 据24潮产业研究院 (TTIR) 统计，天齐锂业营业收入已经连续6个季度下降，近五个季度营收降幅 均超50%，其24年更是创纪录的巨亏 （归母净利润，下同） 79.05亿元 （同比下降了208.32%） ，从季度趋势变化看，其已经连续5个季度亏损；赣锋锂业形势也不容乐观，其营业收入已经连 续7个季度下降，24年亏损20.74亿元 （同比下降141.93%） ，这是有记录以来 （2007年以来） 首次出现亏损。 为了方便读者朋友能更为客观、全面的了解锂矿双雄的真正竞争力与潜在风险，24潮团队还统计 对比了天齐锂业与赣锋锂业2024年投资布局与收益、造血力与资本实力、国际化与市值变化等多 个核心指标，供读者朋友参考。 如表所示，24年锂矿双雄国际化方面也遭遇了较大冲击。2024年天齐锂业与赣锋锂业海外业务收 入分别同比下降了81.13%和63.68%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium mining giants Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium are facing significant challenges due to a cyclical downturn, resulting in substantial revenue declines and record losses in 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Tianqi Lithium's revenue has decreased for six consecutive quarters, with a revenue drop exceeding 50% for the last five quarters, leading to a record loss of 7.905 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 208.32% [1][4]. - Ganfeng Lithium has also seen a decline in revenue for seven consecutive quarters, reporting a loss of 2.074 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 141.93%, marking its first recorded loss since 2007 [1][4]. - In 2024, Tianqi Lithium's total revenue was 13.063 billion yuan, down 67.75% year-on-year, while Ganfeng Lithium's revenue was 18.906 billion yuan, down 42.66% year-on-year [4][5]. Group 2: International Operations - Both companies experienced significant declines in overseas revenue in 2024, with Tianqi Lithium's overseas income dropping by 81.13% and Ganfeng Lithium's by 63.68% [2][5]. - The overseas business gross margin for Tianqi Lithium was 41.44%, down 42.45% year-on-year, while Ganfeng Lithium's was 8.41%, down 10.89% year-on-year [5]. Group 3: Investment and Capacity - Ganfeng Lithium has invested heavily in lithium battery manufacturing, achieving a near-integrated lithium supply chain, while Tianqi Lithium has focused on upstream lithium resource development [1][2]. - Ganfeng Lithium's planned capacity for lithium carbonate is 244,200 tons, while Tianqi Lithium's capacity is not specified [5]. - Ganfeng Lithium's cash flow from operations was 5.161 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3,434.93%, while Tianqi Lithium's was 5.554 billion yuan, down 75.52% year-on-year [5][6]. Group 4: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The global lithium market is experiencing a fundamental shift, with expectations of oversupply leading to a bearish trend in lithium prices, which fell by 32% in 2024 [7][8]. - Despite some production cuts announced by lithium projects, the overall supply is expected to remain high, with a projected price range of 60,000 to 90,000 yuan per ton in 2025 [8]. - The lithium battery industry is facing severe overcapacity, with planned production exceeding demand forecasts, indicating a potential mismatch in the market [9][10].

"坚持从供需两侧发力，标本兼治化解重点产业结构性矛盾等问题，促进产业健康 发展和提质升级。要优化产业布局、强化标准引领、推进整合重组，推动落后低效 产能退出，增加高端产能供给。要优化市场监管，加强行业自律，共同维护公平竞 争、优胜劣汰的市场秩序。" 3月1日习近平总书记《求是》杂志发表文章《经济工作必须统筹好几对重要关系》指出， "内卷式"竞争是市场资源配置功能受限的结果，破局要从"有效市场"和"有为政府"两个 维度着手。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人张馨月 近期政策层面密集释放积极供给侧改革的信号。 2月10日国常会提出， "要坚持供需两侧协同发力、动态平衡，持续深化供给侧结构性改革"。 3月6日五部委记者会国家发改委主任郑栅洁表示， "将分行业出台化解重点产业结构矛盾的具体方案，推动落后低效产能退出，扩大 中高端产能供给，让供给侧更好适应市场需求变化"。 值得注意的是，近期政策表态对于供给侧问题的表述是 "重点产业结构矛盾"，而非"产能过剩"。 事实上，我国多数行业面临的结构性问题是低端产能过剩、高端产能不足。尤其是对于需求仍处于上行 周期的新兴产业来说，是否存在整体的"产能过剩"，还是个问号。 因此，本轮 ...

公告显示， 嘉元科技 预计2025年第一季度实现营业收入17亿元至23亿元，与上年同期相比，将增加7.7亿元至13.7亿元，同比增加 82.80%至147.32； 预计第一季度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润2200万元到3000万元，同比实现扭亏为盈； 预计第一季度实现归属于 母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益的净利润1000万元到1350万元。 锂电铜箔领域迎来一份新成绩单。 4月9日， 嘉元科技发布2025年一季报预告， 公司营收大幅增长并成功扭亏为盈，给市场带来提振作用。 在产品端，公司 持续加大复合铜箔、可剥离载体铜箔等前沿新技术的研发投入。其 极薄铜箔生产技术达到行业领先水平，目前 实现了 4.5μm极薄高端铜箔、高延高强铜箔产业化。 对于业绩变动的主要原因， 嘉元科技表示，第一季度由于公司销售订单增加，同时产能利用率同比上升，单位生产成本降低，进而导致毛利 率上升。 事实上，在经历了2023-2024年两年的价格下行后，铜箔企业发展均不乐观。但进入2025年，锂电铜箔市场订单频发，比如诺德股份、嘉元 科技、 德福科技等都获得了订单。 据多家锂电铜箔公司反应， 近几年铜箔行业快速扩产，内卷严重，出现产能 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Honggong Technology, is on the verge of going public after nearly three years of preparation, but its future valuation will depend heavily on its operational strength and market conditions [3][4]. Financial Performance - From 2021 to 2023, Honggong Technology's revenue grew from 579 million to 3.198 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of 134.99%. However, in 2024, the company faced a significant decline, with revenue dropping to 2.163 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 32.36% [5][6]. - The net profit for 2024 also fell to 220 million, down 30.08% year-on-year. The company anticipates continued challenges in 2025, with projected net profit ranging from 29.73 million to 36.34 million [6][8]. Market Position and Dependency - Honggong Technology focuses on automated material handling systems, with a significant portion of its revenue derived from the lithium battery sector, accounting for 71.99% to 92.18% of its main business income from 2021 to 2024 [7][8]. - The company has a heavy reliance on major clients like CATL, which poses risks if these clients experience operational difficulties. Sales to CATL dropped significantly in 2024, accounting for only one-third of the previous year's revenue [9][10]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - The company has seen a continuous increase in accounts receivable, which reached 1.448 billion by September 2024, indicating potential cash flow pressures [10][11]. - Operating cash flow has been negative since 2022, raising concerns about the sustainability of profits and cash flow management [11][12]. Legal and Management Issues - The company faces legal challenges, including patent infringement lawsuits, which could impact its financial standing. Recent rulings have declared some of the contested patents invalid, reducing the risk of liability [15][16]. - Management stability is crucial, especially given the personal circumstances of the controlling shareholders, which could affect decision-making and company direction [13][14]. Future Outlook - The company plans to raise 532 million through its IPO, with funds allocated for working capital and R&D projects. However, the success of this fundraising is contingent on improving operational performance and market conditions [12][21]. - Despite the challenges, the company has established a strong market presence and technological capabilities, which could support future growth if managed effectively [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - The company Fuyat has announced a significant decline in its financial performance for 2024, with revenue and net profit experiencing substantial drops due to industry overcapacity and falling prices of photovoltaic glass [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Fuyat reported total revenue of 18.683 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.20%, and a net profit of 1.007 billion yuan, down 63.52% [3]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 4.079 billion yuan, a decline of 27.67%, with a net profit of -289 million yuan, marking a 136.54% decrease in profitability [3]. - The photovoltaic glass segment generated revenue of 16.816 billion yuan, down 14.54%, with an average selling price of 13.30 yuan per square meter, a decrease of 17.59% [3]. Industry Challenges - The photovoltaic glass industry is facing high investment and asset-heavy conditions, with supply-demand imbalances leading to rapid price declines, which are core factors in Fuyat's poor performance [3]. - The company's gross margin for photovoltaic glass was 15.64%, down 6.81 percentage points year-on-year, indicating ongoing pressure on profitability [3][8]. Sales and Market Dynamics - Fuyat's sales volume for photovoltaic glass reached approximately 1.265 billion square meters, showing only a 3.70% increase year-on-year, suggesting stagnation in sales growth despite price declines [3]. - The overseas sales proportion has risen again in 2024 after several years of decline, raising concerns about future performance amid a challenging international environment [5]. Financing and Debt Levels - Since its IPO, Fuyat has raised a total of 12.5 billion yuan through various financing methods, including private placements and convertible bonds, yet its debt ratio remains significantly higher than that of comparable companies [6][7]. - The company has made substantial investments to reduce production costs, including a 3.3 billion yuan acquisition of two raw material mines, but this has not reversed the trend of declining profitability [8].

Core Viewpoint - The energy storage industry is experiencing a surge in demand driven by policy changes, market competition, and the expansion of overseas markets, leading to a situation where production lines are operating at full capacity despite an overall industry overcapacity issue [5][6][36]. Group 1: Industry Demand and Policy Impact - The energy storage sector has expanded rapidly, with planned production capacity in China exceeding 1000 GWh for 2024, but actual shipments only reaching 300 GWh, resulting in a utilization rate of less than 35% [4]. - The release of document No. 136 has created urgency among renewable energy developers to complete projects before the June 2025 deadline, leading to a spike in energy storage demand [5][6]. - Twelve provinces in China have issued clear targets for energy storage projects, totaling over 30 GW/80 GWh [7]. Group 2: International Market Opportunities - Domestic energy storage companies are securing significant orders in international markets due to their advanced technology and cost-effective products [8]. - Notable orders include a record 19 GWh from CATL in the Middle East, showcasing the growing international demand for energy storage solutions [9]. Group 3: Corporate Strategies and Production Expansion - Major companies are proactively securing supply agreements for battery materials to ensure timely delivery and production [21]. - CATL has signed multiple agreements to expand production capacity, including a 40 GWh battery production project in Fuzhou and a 25 GWh project in Fuding [25][26]. - EVE Energy is also expanding its production capabilities with a new factory in Jingmen, planning a total capacity of 60 GWh [28]. Group 4: Emerging Market Segments - The demand for energy storage in data centers is becoming a new growth point, driven by the increasing need for clean energy solutions to support high-density computing facilities [11][19]. - The global market for data center energy storage lithium batteries is expected to grow significantly, with shipments projected to exceed 69 GWh by 2027 and reach 300 GWh by 2030 [18]. Group 5: Industry Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite the current demand surge, the industry faces potential overcapacity issues due to some companies expanding production without considering actual market needs [36][38]. - Experts emphasize the importance of focusing on technological innovation and product quality to avoid falling into the trap of excess capacity [39][40].

Industry Overview - Recent policies indicate a focus on supply-side reforms addressing "structural contradictions in key industries" rather than "overcapacity" issues[10] - The majority of industries in China face structural issues characterized by excess low-end capacity and insufficient high-end capacity[11] Capacity Utilization - As of Q4 2024, the industrial capacity utilization rate is at 65.9%, indicating that overcapacity is concentrated in specific industries[18] - Industries potentially facing overcapacity include non-metallic minerals, black metals, photovoltaic, lithium batteries, automotive manufacturing, petroleum and coal, specialized equipment, food manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, and chemicals[37] Types of Overcapacity - Overcapacity can be categorized into frictional, cyclical, and structural types, with structural overcapacity being the most persistent and challenging to resolve[3] - Structural overcapacity is characterized by the coexistence of low-end overcapacity and high-end capacity shortages, often requiring government intervention for resolution[38] Key Industries Affected - The steel and cement industries are experiencing both cyclical and structural overcapacity due to a downturn in the real estate sector, leading to a projected reduction in steel production by 30-50 million tons[41] - Emerging industries such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and lithium batteries are facing frictional and structural overcapacity due to rapid technological advancements and local government competition[59] Policy Recommendations - The government aims to guide the orderly exit of inefficient capacity through supply-side reforms, focusing on both eliminating low-end capacity and expanding high-end supply[40] - Effective market mechanisms and government actions are necessary to address the "involution" competition in emerging industries, including the implementation of fair competition regulations[65] Risk Factors - Risks include the potential for slower-than-expected capacity elimination, a more severe downturn in the real estate market, and unexpected declines in exports[5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the growth market, particularly focusing on the AI sector, and analyzes the factors influencing growth trends and investment strategies [2][4][57]. Group 1: Definition of Growth Industry - Growth industries are characterized by high growth potential and often exhibit high valuations in the A-share market, but their definitions evolve over time [2][11]. - The article categorizes growth styles into three main types: technology growth, manufacturing growth, and consumer growth, each with distinct performance characteristics [2][12]. Group 2: Factors Determining Growth Market - The decisive factor for growth markets is the industry trend and profit realization; a high prosperity industry is essential for a thriving growth market [3][22]. - The macro environment is not a decisive factor but can enhance the relative advantages of growth styles under favorable conditions [3][18]. - Important industry and regulatory policies serve as sufficient but non-essential conditions for the formation of growth markets [3][31]. - External factors, while less important than internal fundamentals, can influence domestic growth styles, particularly through global capital flows [3][4][57]. - Valuation does not determine the height of growth markets but can increase volatility once valuations reach relatively high levels [3][35]. - Sentiment indicators can provide short-term timing effects but have limited significance in the medium term [3][48]. - The market's leading capital influences growth styles significantly, with different investor preferences affecting market dynamics [3][40][41]. Group 3: Current AI Growth Market Analysis - The AI growth market is still in its early stages, with potential for performance realization in computing power and cloud services [4][57]. - The macro environment and supportive policies favor the AI growth market, while external uncertainties may impact global growth styles [4][57]. - Recent corrections in AI stocks have made valuations more attractive, providing potential investment opportunities [4][57]. Group 4: Long-term Investment Strategies in AI - Index investment is recommended due to the uncertainty in technology innovation, allowing for natural selection among companies [5][71]. - Investment in the technology supply chain should follow a sequence, starting with "selling shovels" (infrastructure) before moving to application stages [6][71]. - The rise in global competitiveness of industries has significant market implications, as seen in the historical context of China's rise in the electric vehicle sector [6][7]. - Understanding the "overcapacity" issue is crucial, as not all supply-demand imbalances indicate inefficiency [7]. Group 5: Historical Context and Lessons - Historical trends from the smartphone and electric vehicle industries provide insights into the current AI market, emphasizing the importance of industry trends and profit cycles [58][59]. - The evolution of the smartphone market illustrates how component manufacturers can gain competitive advantages, which is relevant for AI infrastructure [59][60]. - The rise of China's electric vehicle industry showcases the benefits of a complete supply chain and market advantages, which can be mirrored in the AI sector [66][67].