俄乌世纪会晤倒计时，地缘风险缓和预期下，黄金表示压力山大？金十研究员高阳正在直播分析，点击 进入直播间 相关链接 ...

Group 1: Core Views - On May 13, 2025, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for June 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.67 per barrel, up $1.72 or 2.78% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.65 - $63.9 [1] - The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for July 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $66.63 per barrel, up $1.67 or 2.57% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $64.63 - $66.81 [1] - Sino - US economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress, with the US canceling 91% of the additional tariffs and China canceling 91% of the counter - tariffs; both sides suspended the implementation of 24% of relevant tariffs [2] - Geopolitical risks have weakened. If sanctions on Iran are eased, oil exports will increase. Hamas is ready to negotiate a cease - fire, and there is a possibility of further progress in the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiations [3] - Affected by the optimistic outlook of trade negotiations and the expected shortage of heavy crude oil supply, oil prices are running strongly. A double - bottom pattern has formed, attracting buying sentiment. However, the continuous upward space for oil prices is limited due to OPEC+ production increases and Trump's low - oil - price policy. In the second quarter, oil prices will fluctuate greatly due to Trump administration's uncertain policy adjustments. Near the summer oil consumption peak season, considering factors such as the sluggish economic recovery outlook and new energy substitution, oil prices may decline [4]

美国贸易谈判有新进展，继续关注地缘风险，黄金能否守住3200？点击观看金十研究员文成直播分析 相关链接 ...

特朗普抨击伊朗，警惕地缘风险陡升，黄金关键转换位在哪？点击观看GMA指标直播分析 相关链接 ...

原油产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年5月14日 宙 扬 Z0020680 | 原油价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 5月14日 | 2月13日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 車位 | | Brent | 66.53 | 66.63 | -0.10 | -0.15% | | | WTI | 63.59 | 63.67 | -0.08 | -0.13% | 美元/桶 | | SC | 491.00 | 482.80 | 8.20 | 1.70% | 元/桶 | | Brent M1-M3 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | WTI M1-M3 | 0.95 | 0.93 | 0.02 | 2.15% | 美元/桶 | | SC M1-M3 | 12.20 | 12.90 | -0.70 | -5.43% | 元/桶 | | Brent-WTI | 2.94 | 2.96 | -0.02 | -0.68% | | | EFS | 1.15 | 1.11 ...

GMA直播 特朗普开启中东行，关注地缘风险变化，黄金能否填补缺口？点击观看GMA指标直播分析 相关链接 ...

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On May 12, 2025, the settlement price of the June 2025 West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $61.95 per barrel, up $0.93 or 1.52% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.02 - $63.61. The settlement price of the July 2025 Brent crude oil futures on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $64.96 per barrel, up $1.05 or 1.64% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.88 - $66.4 [1] - The Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks have made substantial progress, significantly reducing bilateral tariff levels. The US has cancelled 91% of the additional tariffs, and China has correspondingly cancelled 91% of the counter - tariffs. The US has suspended the implementation of 24% "reciprocal tariffs", and China has also correspondingly suspended the implementation of 24% counter - tariffs [2] - Attention is paid to the progress of the US - Iran nuclear negotiations. Iranian sanctions may ease, and oil exports will increase. Hamas has stated its readiness to participate in negotiations for a comprehensive and sustainable cease - fire agreement. There is also a possibility of further progress in the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiations, weakening the impact of geopolitical risks on oil prices [3] - Affected by the optimistic outlook of trade negotiations and the expected shortage of heavy crude oil supply resources, oil prices are running strongly. Currently, oil prices have formed a double bottom, attracting some buying sentiment. However, the continuous upward space for oil prices is limited, mainly due to OPEC+ production increases and Trump's low - oil - price policy. In the second quarter, oil prices will still fluctuate greatly, mainly due to the uncertain policy adjustments of the Trump administration. Near the summer peak oil consumption season, considering factors such as the sluggish economic recovery outlook and the substitution of new energy, oil prices still have room to decline [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - On May 12, 2025, WTI June 2025 futures settled at $61.95/barrel, up 1.52%, trading between $61.02 - $63.61. Brent July 2025 futures settled at $64.96/barrel, up 1.64%, trading between $63.88 - $66.4 [1] Trade Negotiations - Sino - US trade talks made progress, with both sides cancelling 91% of relevant tariffs and suspending 24% of tariffs [2] Geopolitical Situation - Iran sanctions may ease, increasing oil exports. Hamas is ready for cease - fire talks, and there's potential progress in Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiations, weakening geopolitical impact on oil prices [3] Future Outlook - Oil prices are strong due to trade optimism and supply concerns but have limited upward space due to OPEC+ output and Trump's policy. Second - quarter prices will be volatile, and there's a risk of decline near summer [4]

Core Viewpoint - The global commodity market is entering a "super cycle" with significant price increases in gold and oil driven by inflation and geopolitical risks [1][8]. Group 1: Gold and Oil Price Dynamics - Gold is seen as both a safe-haven asset and an inflation hedge, with prices surpassing $2400 per ounce, supported by central bank purchases and geopolitical tensions [4][6]. - Oil prices have risen due to supply-demand imbalances and geopolitical risks, with Brent crude oil prices returning above $85 per barrel, supported by OPEC+ production cuts and increased demand from China and the U.S. [4][7]. Group 2: TradeMax Platform Features - TradeMax offers a comprehensive trading platform for commodities, allowing users to trade gold and oil with features like low spreads and no expiration dates for contracts [4][5]. - The platform provides intelligent tools for decision-making, including real-time market analysis and alerts for significant economic events, enhancing trading strategies [4][8]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The outlook for gold and oil remains strong, with ongoing support from central bank purchases and geopolitical risks, although potential corrections may occur following Federal Reserve rate cuts [6][8]. - Technical analysis suggests gold could target $2500 per ounce, while Brent crude oil may challenge the $90 per barrel mark, indicating potential trading opportunities [8].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a polyester weekly report from Zhengxin Futures, dated May 12, 2025, focusing on the PTA and MEG markets [2] - It analyzes the cost, supply, demand, and inventory aspects of the polyester industry chain and provides investment strategies and key points to watch [6] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - PTA is expected to have a warm and oscillating trend in the short - term due to strong raw material PX performance and continuous de - stocking, despite some relief in the tight supply - demand pattern [6] - MEG is likely to continue its rebound in the short - term as the supply - demand pattern is favorable with expected declines in both domestic production and imports and high polyester开工率 [6] Group 4: Summary by Directory 4.1 Upstream Industry Analysis - **Market Review**: International oil prices fell due to OPEC+ increasing production and positive signals from US - Iran negotiations. PX had a narrow - range repair due to poor cost support, continuous de - stocking of downstream PTA, low processing fees, and declining capacity utilization. As of May 9, Asian PX closed at $786/ton CFR China, up $40/ton from April 30 [18] - **PX开工率**: The weekly average PX capacity utilization rate was 81.94%, a 4.5% increase from last week. Some devices had restarts, but there were also load - reducing situations such as catalyst replacement and planned maintenance [21] - **PX Processing Fees**: As of May 9, the PX - naphtha price difference was $216.7/ton, up $34.42/ton from April 30. Low previous processing fees and non - planned load reduction promoted the repair of processing fees [23] 4.2 PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: After the holiday, PTA opened slightly lower, then the international oil price rebounded, and with supply reduction from device maintenance and a warming commodity sentiment, the PTA price center strengthened. As of May 9, the PTA spot price was 4,720 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 2509 + 155 [26] - **PTA Capacity Utilization**: The weekly average PTA capacity utilization rate dropped to 74.48%, a 2.53% decrease from the previous week. In May, there are more planned device maintenance and some planned restarts, with an expected decline in capacity utilization [30] - **Supply - Demand Balance and Processing Fees**: Multiple device maintenance led to supply reduction and continuous de - stocking of the balance sheet, causing a significant increase in PTA processing fees. Next week, with device restarts, processing fees are expected to decline slightly [33] - **Inventory Expectation**: In May, with many PTA device maintenance plans and a co - existence of maintenance and restart in the polyester end, the supply - demand will continue the de - stocking pattern [34][36] 4.3 MEG Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: Affected by the sharp drop in crude oil during the holiday, MEG opened lower after the holiday. With the improvement of the macro - situation, the market rebounded from the low level and fluctuated around 4,300 yuan/ton. As of May 9, the closing price in Zhangjiagang was 4,300 yuan/ton, and the delivered price in the South China market was 4,390 yuan/ton [39] - **MEG Capacity Utilization**: The total domestic MEG capacity utilization rate this week was 63.46%, a 0.47% increase from the previous week. There are multiple device maintenance and new device start - up plans in May, with most restarts concentrated around the end of the month [42] - **Port Inventory**: As of May 8, the total MEG port inventory in the main ports of East China was 69.2 tons, an increase of 1.6 tons from May 6. The arrival was okay, but the shipment was dull, leading to a slight increase in inventory [47] - **Production Profits**: Due to the slight increase in the MEG price and different declines in raw material prices, the sample profits of all MEG production processes increased. As of May 9, the profit of naphtha - based MEG was - $105.8/ton, up $19.55/ton from last week; the coal - based profit was - 203.58 yuan/ton, up 43.32 yuan/ton from last week [50] 4.4 Downstream Demand Analysis - **Polyester Capacity Utilization**: The weekly average polyester capacity utilization rate was 91.49%, a 0.1% decrease from the previous week. Although some devices increased their loads, the overall production and capacity utilization declined slightly due to previous maintenance [53] - **Polyester Production**: In May, with a co - existence of maintenance and restart and a higher restart capacity than the maintenance capacity, the monthly polyester production is expected to increase slightly [56] - **Capacity Utilization of Different Products**: The weekly average capacity utilization rate of polyester filament was 92%, a 0.28% decrease from the previous week; that of polyester staple fiber was 86.94%, a 0.26% increase; that of fiber - grade polyester chips was 85.75%, a 2.99% decrease [59] - **Polyester Product Inventory**: After the holiday, the market trading was average, and the finished - product inventory of polyester filament factories gradually accumulated [60] - **Polyester Cash Flow**: With the expected increase in the cost side, the polyester cash flow may be further compressed, with local cash flow repair for some products and compression for DTY [63] - **Weaving Industry**: As of May 8, the comprehensive starting rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 60.82%, a 5.73% increase from the previous period. The average order days of terminal weaving were 10.17 days, an increase of 0.48 days from last week. However, foreign trade orders were sporadic, and there is a risk of a decline in the starting rate in the future [67] 4.5 Polyester Industry Chain Fundamental Summary - **Cost Side**: International oil prices fell, and PX had a narrow - range repair due to factors such as downstream de - stocking and low processing fees [69] - **Supply Side**: The PTA capacity utilization rate decreased, and the MEG capacity utilization rate increased slightly [69] - **Demand Side**: The polyester capacity utilization rate decreased slightly, and the weaving starting rate increased, but the order situation was not optimistic [69] - **Inventory**: PTA maintained a tight supply - demand balance, and MEG port inventory increased slightly [69]

| | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/5/9 | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 | 2025/5/8 | 美元/桶 | 59.91 | 58.07 | 3.17% | | 上 | 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/5/8 | 美元/桶 | 62.84 | 61.12 | 2.81% | | 游 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/5/8 | 美元/吨 | 554.50 | 562.00 | -1.33% | | | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国 | 2025/5/7 | 美元/吨 | 657.50 | 640.50 | 2.65% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/5/8 | 美元/吨 | 778.00 | 767.67 | 1.35% | | | CZCE TA 主力合约 收盘价 | 2025/5/8 | 元/吨 | 4546.00 | ...