有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 23 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜先抑后扬，上涨 0.34%至 9519.5 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力下跌 0.12%至 | | | | | 77820 元/吨；国内现货进口持续亏损。宏观方面，美国 5 月综合、制造业、服务业 | | | | | PMI 均好于预期，受关税政策缓解影响，美国本月的商业活动和产出预期均有所改 | | | | | 善，制造业和服务业呈现同步增长的态势，特别是新订单相对比较强劲。而欧元区 | 5 | | | | 月综合 PMI 从 4 月的 50.4 降至 49.5，制造业的小幅改善被服务业的下跌所抵消。美 | | | | | 欧经济体之间的对比，或有利于美元后期的企稳表现。特朗普减税案在众院涉险过 | | | | 铜 | 关，正提交参议院审议。美联储理事沃勒表示，减税法案引发美债抛售，若关税稳定 | | | | | 在 10%水平，美联储下半年将降息。库存方面，LME 铜库存下降 2300 吨至 166525 | | | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Equity Index**: The Trump tax - cut bill barely passed in the House of Representatives and still faces challenges in the Senate. Fed理事沃勒 said the tax - cut bill triggered the selling of US Treasuries, and if tariffs stabilize, there may be an interest rate cut in the second half of the year. US May Markit manufacturing and services PMIs exceeded expectations and expanded, with the price index rising again. The Eurozone's May PMI unexpectedly contracted, and the service sector had its worst performance in 16 months. After the US - Japan finance ministers' meeting, the US said "no exchange - rate discussion, the current exchange rate reflects fundamentals", and Japan said "no discussion on US Treasuries". In the domestic market, the rotation is fast, the main driving force of the market is weak, and the equity index may fluctuate [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Recently, the market has entered a data vacuum zone, lacking new positive or negative factors, and oscillation has become the consensus. From the futures trend, the long - and short - side forces are evenly matched. During the oscillation period, when it touches the upper or lower limit of the range, there will be short - term confrontations between the long and short sides. Without incremental information or fundamental data guidance in the short term, the oscillation pattern is expected to continue, and the market may continue to focus on spread mining [3]. 3. Strategy Recommendations - **Equity Index**: Adopt a defensive and wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Bullish in the short term [4]. 4. Market Review - **Equity Index**: The main contract futures of the CSI 300 index fell 0.05%, the main contract futures of the SSE 50 index rose 0.1%, the main contract futures of the CSI 500 index fell 0.7%, and the main contract futures of the CSI 1000 index fell 0.81% [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year main contract rose 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.0%, the 30 - year main contract fell 0.04%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.0% [9]. 5. Technical Analysis - **Equity Index**: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows a possible oscillating operation with adjustment risks [7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows an oscillating operation and may rebound [10]. 6. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (Yuan/Zhang) | Increase/Decrease (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | CSI 300 Main Continuous | 3879.60 | - 0.05 | 52835 | 143884 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | SSE 50 Main Continuous | 2715.40 | 0.10 | 28918 | 51342 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | CSI 500 Main Continuous | 5614.80 | - 0.70 | 53832 | 116140 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | CSI 1000 Main Continuous | 5950.00 | - 0.81 | 148619 | 195203 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | 10 - Year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 108.81 | 0.01 | 65126 | 156071 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | 5 - Year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 105.98 | - 0.00 | 47004 | 116615 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | 30 - Year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 119.52 | - 0.04 | 67554 | 82843 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | 2 - Year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 102.37 | - 0.00 | 34274 | 100554 | [12]

2025年05月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡回落 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：跟随上涨 | 2 | | 铜：库存减少，支撑价格 | 4 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 6 | | 氧化铝：小幅下跌 | 6 | | 锌：承压运行 | 8 | | 铅：供需双弱，区间调整 | 9 | | 锡：窄幅震荡 | 10 | | 镍：镍矿矛盾托底，转产经济性或限制上方估值 | 12 | | 不锈钢：成本底部空间清晰，上行缺乏实质驱动 | 12 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 23 日 黄金：震荡回落 白银：跟随上涨 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Crude oil: Hold a light long position in the calendar spread and stay on the sidelines for single-sided trading [1] 2. Core View - The report provides the latest prices and price changes of international crude oil futures, and also lists a series of global economic data and industry news that may affect the crude oil market [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs International Crude Oil Futures Prices - WTI June crude oil futures closed down $0.37/barrel, a decrease of 0.60%, at $61.20/barrel [1] - Brent July crude oil futures closed down $0.47/barrel, a decrease of 0.72%, at $64.44/barrel [1] - SC2507 crude oil futures closed down 5.60 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 1.21%, at 456.90 yuan/barrel [1] Global Economic Data - China's Swift RMB share in global payments in April was 3.5%, down from 4.13% previously [2] - China's year-to-date national power generation installed capacity annual rate in April was 15.9%, up from 14.6% previously [2] - China's year-to-date national power generation installed capacity in April was 349,000 million kilowatts, up from 343,081 million kilowatts previously [2] - France's May manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, expected 48.9, previous value 48.7 [2] - Germany's May manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 48.8, expected 48.9, previous value 48.4 [2] - Eurozone's May manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4, expected 49.3, previous value 49 [2] - Germany's May IFO business climate index was 87.5, expected 87.4, previous value 86.9 [2] - UK's May services PMI preliminary value was 50.2, expected 50, previous value 49 [2] - UK's May manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.1, expected 46, previous value 45.4 [2] - UK's May CBI industrial order difference was -30, expected -24, previous value -26 [2] - US initial jobless claims for the week ended May 17 were 227,000, the lowest since the week ended April 19, market expected 230,000 [2] - US May S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.3, expected 50.1, previous value 50.2 [2] - US May S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 52.3, expected 50.8, previous value 50.8 [2] - US April existing home sales annualized total was 4 million units, expected 4.1 million units, previous value 4.02 million units [2] - India's crude oil imports in April decreased 1.0% year-on-year to 21.2 million tons, and gasoline exports increased 3.8% year-on-year to 1.2 million tons [2] Industry News - Israel is preparing to quickly strike Iran's nuclear facilities if the US-Iran negotiations break down [2] - OPEC+ is discussing whether to agree to another ultra-large-scale production increase at the June 1 meeting, and a 411,000 barrels per day increase in daily output in July is one of the options under discussion [2][3] - The Iraqi oil minister hopes that oil prices will rebound in the second half of this year and has reservations about the energy agreement signed with the Kurdish region [3] - Saudi Arabia's domestic refinery crude oil processing volume in March increased by 323,000 barrels per day to 2.944 million barrels per day [3] - Saudi Arabia's crude oil production in March increased by 10,000 barrels per day to 8.957 million barrels per day [3] - Saudi Arabia's petroleum product demand in March increased by 223,000 barrels per day to 2.218 million barrels per day [3] - Saudi Arabia's petroleum product exports in March increased by 145,000 barrels per day to 1.553 million barrels per day [3] Trend Intensity - Crude oil trend intensity: 0, indicating a neutral view [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market is complex. For copper, the supply of raw materials remains tight, but the decline in consumption intensity may lead to price fluctuations. For aluminum, the rapid depletion of domestic aluminum ingot inventories provides support, but the seasonal weakness in consumption restricts the upside potential. Lead prices are weak due to limited recycled raw material inventories and the decline in scrap battery prices. Zinc prices face a certain downward risk as the inventory accumulates. Tin prices may decline due to the expected increase in supply and weak demand. Nickel prices are expected to remain volatile. Lithium carbonate prices are likely to fluctuate, and the short - term strategy for alumina is to wait and see. Stainless steel prices have certain resilience, and the focus is on raw material price fluctuations and downstream demand recovery [1][3][4][5][7][8][10][13][15] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price Movement**: LME copper rose 0.34% to $9519/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 77820 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 1300 tons to 166525 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts continued to decrease to 32000 tons. - **Market Situation**: Domestic social inventory increased slightly, bonded area inventory decreased, and the spot premium in Shanghai decreased. The import loss of domestic copper spot remained above 400 yuan/ton, and the scrap - refined copper price difference narrowed. - **Price Outlook**: The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the price support is strong. However, due to the decline in consumption intensity, the price is expected to be volatile. The operating range of SHFE copper is 77200 - 78400 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper is $9400 - 9600/ton [1] Aluminum - **Price Movement**: LME aluminum fell 0.77% to $2456/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20160 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased rapidly, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased to 58000 tons. - **Market Situation**: The trading volume in the spot market improved, and the inventory depletion rate accelerated. - **Price Outlook**: The rapid depletion of inventory provides support, but the seasonal weakness in consumption restricts the upside potential. The operating range of SHFE aluminum is 20000 - 20260 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum is $2430 - 2480/ton [3] Lead - **Price Movement**: SHFE lead index fell 1.29% to 16681 yuan/ton, and LME lead fell to $1955/ton. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory increased to 58200 tons. - **Market Situation**: The inventory of recycled raw materials is limited, the profit of recycled lead enterprises is under pressure, and the start - up rate continues to decline. - **Price Outlook**: Short - term lead prices are weak [4] Zinc - **Price Movement**: SHFE zinc index fell 0.72% to 22256 yuan/ton, and LME zinc fell to $2676/ton. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 83800 tons, and the zinc ingot inventory increased slightly. - **Market Situation**: In April, the export volume of unforged zinc alloy increased significantly, mainly flowing to Taiwan. The port inventory of zinc concentrate continued to rise, and the processing fee increased again. - **Price Outlook**: In the medium term, as the social inventory of zinc ingots accumulates, zinc prices still face a certain downward risk [5] Tin - **Price Movement**: SHFE tin main contract fell 1.10% to 264780 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: SHFE registered warehouse receipts decreased by 14 tons to 8056 tons, and LME inventory decreased by 5 tons to 2665 tons. - **Market Situation**: The tin mines are gradually resuming production, and the high price suppresses the downstream restocking willingness. - **Price Outlook**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The price center may move down. The operating range of SHFE tin is 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton, and that of LME tin is $30000 - 33000/ton [6][7] Nickel - **Price Movement**: SHFE nickel fell 0.53% to 122890 yuan/ton, and LME nickel fell 0.90% to $15490/ton. - **Inventory**: LME nickel inventory decreased by 86 tons to 200910 tons. - **Market Situation**: The price of nickel ore is stable, the price of nickel iron has stabilized and rebounded, and the price of intermediate products remains high. - **Price Outlook**: The short - term rebound in nickel iron prices provides support, and nickel prices are expected to remain volatile. The operating range of SHFE nickel is 120000 - 130000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel is $15000 - 16300/ton [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movement**: The MMLC index remained unchanged at 62657 yuan, and the LC2507 contract rose 1.70% to 62140 yuan. - **Inventory**: The domestic lithium carbonate production decreased by 3.2% week - on - week, and the SMM weekly inventory decreased by 141 tons. - **Market Situation**: The disk price is in the cost - intensive area, and there is selling pressure above. - **Price Outlook**: Lithium carbonate prices are likely to fluctuate. The operating range of the LC2507 contract is 61100 - 63200 yuan/ton [10] Alumina - **Price Movement**: The alumina index fell 1.05% to 3207 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 9900 tons to 163600 tons. - **Market Situation**: The spot prices in various regions increased, and the overseas FOB price remained stable. - **Price Outlook**: Due to the continuous disturbances in the mine and supply sides, the short - term strategy is to wait and see. The operating range of the AO2509 contract is 2900 - 3500 yuan/ton [12][13] Stainless Steel - **Price Movement**: The stainless steel main contract rose 0.23% to 12870 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: The futures inventory decreased by 1314 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.42%. - **Market Situation**: The prices of raw materials were stable, and the long - term contract procurement price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Qing Shan Group remained unchanged. - **Price Outlook**: The 304 variety has certain resilience, and the focus is on raw material price fluctuations and downstream demand recovery [15]

Core Insights - The temporary trade agreement between the US and China has led to a rebound in US business activity in May, but the comprehensive tariffs imposed by President Trump have increased prices for businesses and consumers [1] - Despite the improvement in business sentiment, concerns about the negative impacts of Trump's policies persist, keeping sentiment slightly below the average level for 2024 [3] Economic Indicators - The S&P Global composite PMI output index rose from 50.6 in April to 52.1 in May, indicating private sector expansion [1] - The manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rebounded from 50.2 to 52.3, surpassing expectations of 50.1, while the services PMI increased from 50.8 to 52.3, contrary to predictions of stability [1] - New orders received by businesses increased from 51.7 in April to 52.4, primarily driven by manufacturing [3] Inflation and Costs - The prices paid by businesses for inputs surged from 58.5 in April to 63.4, the highest level since November 2022, indicating that companies are passing higher costs onto consumers [3] - The prices charged for goods and services rose from 54.0 to 59.3, marking the highest level since August 2022, suggesting a sharp increase in consumer price inflation [3] - Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation is expected to rise to approximately 3.5%, while GDP growth is projected to slow to below 1% this year [2] Employment and Labor Market - The employment index fell from 50.2 to 49.5, reflecting concerns about future demand, rising costs, and labor shortages [3] - Inventory investments have surged to an 18-year high due to fears of supply shortages and price increases related to tariffs [2]

美国5月标普全球制造业及服务业PMI初值将于十分钟后公布。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the construction and engineering industry [11]. Core Insights - The report highlights fluctuations in infrastructure investment growth and emphasizes the importance of subsequent funding implementation [2]. - Fixed investment growth is declining, with a drop in the PMI for both manufacturing and construction sectors [6][19]. - The construction sector is experiencing pressure on orders, with a notable decline in new orders and employment indices [6][39]. Summary by Sections Investment & Orders - In April, the manufacturing PMI fell below 50, and the construction PMI also decreased, with new orders and employment indices at 39.6% and 37.8% respectively. The construction PMI was 51.9%, down 4.4 percentage points year-on-year and 1.5 percentage points month-on-month [6][19]. - Fixed asset investment from January to April reached CNY 14.7 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, with narrow infrastructure investment at CNY 4.9 trillion, up 5.8% year-on-year [22][23]. Physical Workload - Cement output has shown a year-on-year decline, while demand for cement in infrastructure remains relatively stable. From January to April, cement production decreased by 2.8% year-on-year [8][30]. Project Funding - The funding availability rate for construction projects is stable, with a slight improvement in housing construction. As of May 13, the funding availability rate was 59.1%, with non-housing projects at 60.65% and housing projects at 51.33% [9][30]. - The issuance of special bonds has accelerated, with a total of CNY 13.68 trillion issued year-to-date, which is CNY 5.12 trillion more than the previous year [9][30].

智通财经APP获悉，欧元区5月私营部门活动意外萎缩，服务业创16个月来最差表现。标普全球周四公 布的数据显示，欧元区综合采购经理人指数(PMI)从4月的50.4降至5月的49.5，跌破50的荣枯线。分析师 此前预计该指数将小幅升至50.6。 欧元区私营部门5月份萎缩 今年前几个月，欧元区20国经济表现稳健，尽管贸易不确定性抑制了企业投资和家庭支出，但仍超出预 期。然而，2025年的增长可能会受到限制，欧盟委员会本周预测 GDP 将增长0.9%。 增长动力主要来自该地区两大经济体之外的国家。德国的PMI同样令分析师意外，因服务业表现疲软而 跌破50。与此同时，法国的PMI连续第九个月低于荣枯线。 下个月，该地区可能会得到提振，分析师预计欧洲央行将在此轮周期中第八次下调存款利率，至2%。 进一步的货币宽松政策是否跟进，将取决于美国的贸易政策。欧洲央行官员将在季度展望中公布几种情 景，以更好地了解潜在结果。 汉堡商业银行经济学家Cyrus de la Rubia在一份声明中表示："欧元区经济似乎始终难以站稳脚跟。虽然 服务业的外部需求正在减弱，但拖累该行业的主要因素似乎是疲软的国内需求。" 长期以来的制造业疲软是部 ...

英国5月服务业PMI初值为50.2，预期50，前值49；英国5月制造业PMI初值为45.1，预期46，前值45.4。 ...