美联储6月会议纪要将于北京时间周四凌晨发布，市场寻求9月降息的关键线索。强劲就业数据已排除7 月降息可能性，投资者将目光转向9月16-17日的议息会议。 经济学家指出，美联储内部分化明显，一派主张今年不降息，另一派则支持降息两到三次。6月会议后 鹰派立场显著增强，7名官员预计今年不会降息，较3月的4名大幅增加。 通胀预期成关键考量因素 鲍威尔在6月新闻发布会上描述劳动力市场表现稳固，并表示预期通胀将因总统关税计划而上升。这解 释了美联储维持观望立场的原因。 美联储主席鲍威尔在6月会议后的国会证词中预期，通胀将在6、7、8月回升。分析师认为这暗示9月可 能成为首次认真考虑降息的会议窗口。花旗则认为，这份会议纪要将释放比预期更为鸽派的信号，降 息"观望期"可能在夏末结束。 花旗认为，尽管美国上周较为强劲的就业数据封堵了7月降息可能，但美联储官员对通胀降温的共识正 推动9月启动降息进程。该行仍认为美联储将从9月开始降息，并在明年3月前累计降息125个基点。 强劲就业数据重塑降息预期 6月就业数据的强劲表现彻底改变了市场对7月降息的预期。经济学家普遍认为7月会议降息为时过早， 焦点已完全转向9月16-17日的议息会议 ...

影响有限。近期供需两弱，下游按需采购，国内社会库存小幅增加；海外库存持稳。技术面，持仓增量空 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 沪镍产业日报 2025-07-09 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 119140 | -1230 08-09月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -90 | 30 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 15015 | -115 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 72919 | 5696 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | -11671 | -3104 LME镍:库存(日,吨) | 203562 | 942 | | | 上期所库存:镍(周,吨) | 24922 | 204 LME镍:注销仓单:合计(日,吨) | 8484 | -18 | | | 仓单数量:沪镍(日,吨) | 20677 | -156 | | | ...

情增加，不过现货升水维持400元/吨，国内库存小幅增加。而海外延续去库，LME注销仓单增加。技术面 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 ，持仓增量空头增强，关注MA60支撑，重回前期震荡区间。操作上，建议暂时观望，参考26.0-26.8。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 | | | 沪锡产业日报 2025-07-09 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 262890 | -2590 LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 33320 | 60 | | | 8月-9月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | -30 | 70 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 26633 | 388 | | ...

【基本面消息】 数据显示，7月9日上海黄金现货价格报价763.39元/克，相较于期货主力价格（766.82元/克）贴水3.43 元/克。 美国总统特朗普发文表示，关税将于2025年8月1日开始实施，"该日期没有变化，以后也不会改变"。可 能未来两天向欧盟发征税函。 【黄金期货最新行情】 | 7月9日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 766.82 | -1.00% | 310838 | 181258 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 日本5月经常项目顺差3.44万亿日元，同比增长16.5%。出口额同比下滑1.4%，进口额减少7.5%，贸易收 支逆差5223亿日元。 【机构观点】 宁证期货：全球多国回应特朗普最新关税措施。日本和韩国表示"遗憾"，但均表达了通过谈判解决问题 的意愿。泰国对关税税率感到惊讶，南非总统对关税计算方式提出异议，而巴西总统态度强硬，批评美 方做法"错误且不负责任"。德国财长警告称，若不能与美国达成公平的贸易协议，欧盟准备采取反制措 施。评：虽然各国对关税均有所 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 9 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜尾盘发生异动，下跌 1.22%至 9665 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.69%至 | | | 80030 元/吨；国内现货铜进口亏损收窄。宏观方面，据纽约联储周二发布的月度调查 | | | 数据显示，消费者对未来一年物价上涨的中位数预期连续第二个月下降，从 3.2%回落 | | | 至 3%，创五个月新低，对未来三年和五年的年化通胀预期则分别维持在 3%和 2.6%不 | | | 变。特朗普周二签署行政令，将对等关税暂缓期推迟到 8 月 1 日，不再延期，并继续 | | | 发关税函。另外，特朗普在内阁会议上威胁对铜、药品和半导体征收高额关税，并考 | | | 虑对进口到美国的铜征收 50%的附加税，这也导致昨晚美铜和伦铜市场异动。库存方 | | 铜 | 面来看，LME 库存增加 5100 吨至 102500 吨；Comex 库存增加 301 吨至 20.12 万吨； | | | SHFE 铜仓单下降 2573 吨至 19109 吨，BC 铜仓单下降 ...

Group 1 - The competition for the next Federal Reserve Chair is intensifying, with Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh as the main contenders [1][2] - Hassett's momentum is rising, having met with President Trump multiple times, while Warsh faces skepticism due to his earlier popularity and "hawkish" stance [2][4] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is also rumored to be interested in the Fed Chair position, with suggestions of him potentially holding both roles [2][9] Group 2 - Hassett, a seasoned economist with a strong academic background, has shifted his stance to align more closely with Trump's views, becoming a vocal critic of current Fed Chair Powell [3][4][5] - Warsh, with a high-profile financial background, is attempting to reshape his "hawkish" image and has proposed aggressive rate cuts in collaboration with Mnuchin [6][7] - Mnuchin's dual role as an advisor and potential candidate adds complexity to the selection process, with his comments possibly exacerbating divisions within the Fed [8][9] Group 3 - Trump's dissatisfaction with Powell has fueled the search for a new Fed Chair, emphasizing the need for rapid interest rate cuts to support economic growth [10][11] - The expectation for the next Chair to prioritize rate cuts is clearer than during Trump's first term, raising concerns about the potential impact on Fed independence and inflation expectations [11]

Group 1 - The euro/dollar exchange rate briefly strengthened before declining, currently at 1.1707 with a decrease of 0.13% [1] - Consumer inflation expectations in the U.S. have fallen back to levels seen before the announcement of large new tariffs by the Trump administration, with the median expectation for price increases over the next year dropping from 3.2% to 3% [1] - The U.S. labor market outlook is mixed, with many consumers anticipating difficulties in finding new jobs, aligning with cautious hiring and layoffs reported by U.S. companies [1] Group 2 - Germany's exports to the U.S. significantly decreased in May due to tariff threats from President Trump, with total exports falling by 1.4% month-on-month, while imports dropped by 3.8% [2] - The trade surplus for Germany increased from €15.7 billion to €18.4 billion (approximately $21.6 billion) in May [2] - The EU is seeking a preliminary trade agreement with the U.S. to lock in tariff rates at 10% after the August 1 deadline, with negotiations for a permanent agreement ongoing [2] Group 3 - The euro is supported at the 1.0950 level on a monthly basis, indicating a long-term bullish outlook [3] - On a weekly basis, the euro is supported at the 1.1450 area, suggesting a continued bullish perspective despite temporary corrections [3] - Key levels to watch include 1.1700 and the previous day's low, with a focus on whether the price can break below these support levels [3]

期 货 研 究 2025 年 07 月 09 日 铝：区间震荡 氧化铝：短期偏强震荡 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | | | 20525 | 115 | -110 | 325 | -190 | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | | | 20540 | l | ー | ー | l | | LME铝3M收盘价 | | | 2577 | 14 | -25 | 127 | -74 | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | | | 109583 | -39087 | -25051 | -58740 | -62353 | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 电解铝 | | 254726 | -598 | -28373 | 4682 ...

2025年07月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：非农表现超预期 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：继续冲高 | 2 | | 铜：美国可能对铜加征关税，美铜价格大涨 | 4 | | 锌：短期区间运行 | 6 | | 铅：预期支撑 | 7 | | 锡：价格走弱 | 8 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 10 | | 氧化铝：短期偏强震荡 | 10 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 10 | | 镍：上方弹性受限，镍价低位承压 | 12 | | 不锈钢：库存轻微消化，钢价修复但弹性有限 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 9 日 黄金：非农表现超预期 白银：继续冲高 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Trump's statement about implementing a 50% copper tariff led to a decline in gold prices. The support for gold has significantly weakened, with the upward momentum clearly diminishing. There is a need to be vigilant about downward pressure. The premium of Shanghai gold has expanded to 4 yuan/gram. Although there are fluctuations in tariffs, the impact on gold prices is limited, and the prices are oscillating [4]. - Silver: Trump's statement about the copper tariff caused silver prices to rise initially and then fall back. The premium of Shanghai silver remains at around 420 yuan/kg. Similar to gold, the upward momentum of silver prices has weakened, and there is a risk of downward pressure [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Previous Day's Review - Gold: COMEX gold futures dropped 0.95% to $3311.00 per ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 2.38 basis points to 4.401%, and the US dollar index fell 0.06% to 97.49. The offshore RMB against the US dollar remained basically flat at 7.1806 [4]. - Silver: COMEX silver futures rose 0.06% to $36.93 per ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 2.38 basis points to 4.401%, and the US dollar index fell 0.06% to 97.49. The offshore RMB against the US dollar remained basically flat at 7.1806 [6]. 3.2 Daily Tips - Gold: The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The inventory of gold futures increased by 102 kg to 21456 kg, which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish. The main net position is long, and the main long position increased, which is bullish [5]. - Silver: The basis shows a neutral situation. The inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 4036 kg to 1334731 kg, which is neutral. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is neutral. The main net position is long, but the main long position decreased, which is bullish [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Economic data: At 07:50, Japan's June M3 money stock year - on - year; at 09:30, China's June CPI and PPI year - on - year; at 10:00, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rate decision and monetary policy assessment report; at 22:00, the final value of the US May wholesale inventory month - on - month. - Speeches: At 18:45, European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane will speak; at 19:00, European Central Bank Vice - President Luis de Guindos will speak. - Meetings: At 17:30, the Bank of England will release the minutes of its financial policy meeting. - Others: China's June credit data may be released today; OPEC will hold its 9th OPEC International Seminar from today to July 10 [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Gold: The fundamental situation is neutral. Trump's tariff statement and various market indicators such as stock indices, bond yields, and the US dollar index all have an impact on gold prices [4]. - Silver: The fundamental situation is neutral. Similar to gold, it is affected by Trump's tariff statement and various market indicators [6]. 3.5 Position Data - Gold: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 3738 to 197020 on July 8 compared to July 7, a decrease of 1.86%. The short position increased by 94 to 63072, an increase of 0.15%. The net position decreased by 3832 to 133948, a decrease of 2.78% [30]. - Silver: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai silver increased by 4360 to 402152 on July 8 compared to July 7, an increase of 1.10%. The short position increased by 11823 to 333284, an increase of 3.68%. The net position decreased by 7463 to 68868, a decrease of 9.78% [33]. - ETF Positions: The SPDR gold ETF position decreased slightly. The silver ETF position increased and is higher than the same period in the past two years [35][38]. - Warehouse Receipts: The COMEX gold warehouse receipt increased slightly and remains at a high level. The Shanghai gold warehouse receipt continued to increase. The Shanghai silver warehouse receipt turned to an increase and is higher than the same period last year, while the COMEX silver warehouse receipt decreased slightly [39][42].