国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟解读2025年5月份CPI和PPI数据时表示，5月份，居民消费价格指 数（CPI）环比下降0.2%，同比下降0.1%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.6%，涨幅比上月 扩大0.1个百分点。工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比下降0.4%，降幅与上月相同，同比下降3.3%， 降幅比上月扩大0.6个百分点。我国以更大力度和更精准措施提振消费，新质生产力成长壮大，部分领 域供需关系有所改善，价格呈现积极变化。 影响本月PPI环比下降的主要原因：一是国际输入性因素影响国内相关行业价格下降。国际原油价格下 行影响国内石油相关行业价格下降，石油和天然气开采业价格下降5.6%，精炼石油产品制造价格下降 3.5%，化学原料和化学制品制造业价格下降1.2%，上述3个行业合计影响PPI环比下降约0.23个百分点， 超过总降幅的五成。二是国内部分能源和原材料价格阶段性下行。煤炭需求处于淡季，电厂、港口存煤 充足，加之新能源发电成本低、替代作用强，煤炭开采和洗选业价格下降3.0%，煤炭加工价格下降 1.1%。南方地区高温雨水天气增多，影响部分房地产、基建项目施工，加之钢材、水泥等建材生产供 ...

Core Viewpoint - In May, the Producer Price Index (PPI) in China decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline widening by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] Group 1: PPI Changes - The month-on-month decline in PPI was primarily influenced by international input factors leading to price decreases in related domestic industries [1] - The price of crude oil fell, impacting domestic oil-related industries, with prices in the oil and gas extraction sector down by 5.6%, refined petroleum product manufacturing down by 3.5%, and chemical raw materials and products manufacturing down by 1.2% [1] - These three sectors collectively contributed approximately 0.23 percentage points to the month-on-month PPI decline, accounting for over 50% of the total decrease [1] Group 2: Domestic Price Influences - Domestic energy and raw material prices experienced a phase of decline, with coal mining and washing prices down by 3.0% due to seasonal demand factors and sufficient coal stockpiles [1] - The price of coal processing decreased by 1.1%, while black metal smelting and rolling industries, as well as non-metallic mineral products, saw a price drop of 1.0% due to ample supply of construction materials [1] - These four sectors together contributed approximately 0.18 percentage points to the month-on-month PPI decline [1]

Group 1 - China's CPI and PPI data for May 2025 will be released on June 9 [1] - China has implemented a visa exemption policy for citizens of Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, and Bahrain, effective from June 9, 2025, to June 8, 2026, allowing stays of up to 30 days without a visa [2] - A total of 4.19 billion shares worth 17.922 billion yuan will be unlocked today from 13 companies, with significant unlocks from Zeyu Intelligent, Yueneng Technology, and Huahai Qingke [3] - Three companies have disclosed stock repurchase progress, with two companies completing repurchases exceeding 10 million yuan [4] - Upcoming data releases include the U.S. wholesale inventory month-on-month rate and Singapore's May foreign exchange reserves [5]

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A remains negative, while Index B continues to decline, indicating weak economic growth momentum[1] - The standardized Index B decreased by 0.43, underperforming historical averages, suggesting a weak domestic economic growth rate[1] - Investment and real estate sectors show signs of decline, while consumer sector stability is maintained[12] Price Trends - Food prices have slightly increased, while non-food prices have slightly decreased; May CPI is expected to decline to -0.4% year-on-year[2] - The PPI is projected to decrease by approximately 0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year drop to -3.2%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, and the Shanghai Composite Index is high; predictions indicate a rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index for the week of June 13, 2025[1][18] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of June 13, 2025, is 2.21%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to be 3,094.40[19]

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-frequency Macro Diffusion Index A remains negative, while Index B continues to decline, indicating weak economic growth momentum[1] - The standardized Index B decreased by 0.43, underperforming historical averages, suggesting a weak domestic economic growth rate[1] - Investment and real estate sectors show a decline in activity, while consumer sector performance remains stable[12] Price Trends - Food prices have slightly increased, while non-food prices have slightly decreased; May CPI is expected to show a month-on-month decline of approximately -0.4%[2] - The PPI is projected to decline by about -0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year drop to -3.2%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, and the Shanghai Composite Index is high; predictions indicate a rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index for the week of June 13, 2025[1][18] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of June 13, 2025, is 2.21%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to be 3,094.40[19]

Group 1 - The May PMI is reported at 49.5%, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points, indicating slight improvement in the manufacturing sector [1] - The PPI for chemical raw materials and chemical products has expanded its year-on-year decline to 4.1%, while the PPI for chemical fiber manufacturing has decreased by 6.5%, reflecting ongoing price pressures in the industry [1] - Fixed asset investment growth in the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing sector has slowed to 1.3%, whereas investment growth in the chemical fiber manufacturing sector has increased to 17.6% [1] Group 2 - Inventory data shows a slight month-on-month decrease in finished goods inventory for both chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, as well as chemical fiber manufacturing [1] - In terms of upstream raw material prices, the average WTI crude oil price has decreased by 19.55% year-on-year, while natural gas prices have increased by 43.57%, and the average price of thermal coal has decreased by 6.69%, indicating weak downstream demand and a clear trend of price competition in the industry [1] - The valuation of the basic chemical sector has seen an increase in PB compared to last month and the beginning of the year, while the PB for the petrochemical sector has risen month-on-month but remains below the level at the beginning of the year [1] Group 3 - The chemical leader ETF (code: 516220) tracks a sub-sector chemical index (code: 000813), which is compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd., selecting representative listed companies in the chemical products and chemical fiber sectors from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets to reflect the overall performance of the Chinese chemical industry [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI Sub-sector Chemical Industry Theme ETF Connect C (012731) and Guotai CSI Sub-sector Chemical Industry Theme ETF Connect A (012730) [1]

Core Insights - The China Commodity Price Index (CBPI) for May 2025 is reported at 110.3 points, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 7.2% [1][3] - The index shows signs of stabilization and improvement due to a temporary easing of US-China trade tariffs, which has restored some market confidence [1][3] - Despite the recovery in global commodity prices, external uncertainties and insufficient effective demand remain significant challenges for various industries [1][3] Price Index Summary - The CBPI increased from 109.9 points in April to 110.3 points in May, with a month-on-month rise of 0.4 points [3] - The energy price index decreased to 96.3 points, down 2.1% month-on-month and down 14.9% year-on-year [3][4] - The chemical price index rebounded to 102.8 points, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% but a year-on-year decline of 13.7% [3][4] - The black metal price index fell to 78.7 points, down 0.8% month-on-month and down 11.4% year-on-year [3][4] - The non-ferrous metal price index rose slightly to 127.7 points, up 0.9% month-on-month but down 5.2% year-on-year [3][4] - The agricultural product price index increased to 98.2 points, with a month-on-month rise of 0.5% and a year-on-year increase of 2% [3][4] Commodity Price Movements - Among 50 monitored commodities, 32 (64%) saw price declines while 17 (34%) experienced price increases in May [5] - The top three commodities with price increases were PTA (up 9.5%), ethylene glycol (up 4.6%), and corn (up 4.3%) [5] - The largest price declines were observed in industrial silicon (down 10.2%), lithium carbonate (down 10%), and soybean meal (down 9.9%) [5]

Production Side - As of the fourth week of May, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.89%, up 0.26 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The rebar operating rate was 42.64%, increasing by 0.83 percentage points month-on-month[3] - The cement mill operating rate was at a low level of 41.83%, down 0.40 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The inventory of rebar was 186.42 million tons, down 0.69 percentage points month-on-month[3] Demand Side - In May, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 cities was 201.56 million square meters, down 2.12% month-on-month[60] - The land transaction area was 903.48 million square meters, down 5.97% month-on-month[60] - The average daily sales of passenger cars were 60,823 units, up 18.85% month-on-month[89] Price Trends - The average price of cement was 368.33 yuan/ton, down 1.61% month-on-month[72] - The price of rebar was 3,077.13 yuan/ton, down 2.36% month-on-month[73] - The PPI for copper was 77,042 yuan/ton, down 0.58% month-on-month[99]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report updates the high - frequency fundamental data from May 26th to May 30th, 2025, showing that the overall fundamental high - frequency index is stable, with different trends in various sub - indicators such as production, demand, prices, and financing [1][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Stable - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 125.9 points (previous value: 125.8 points), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 point and a year - on - year increase of 5.0 points (previous value: 4.9 points), and the year - on - year growth rate rebounds. The long - short signal for interest - rate bonds is long, with a signal factor of 5.8% (previous value: 6.3%) [1][9]. 3.2 Production: Polyester Operating Rate Declines - The industrial production high - frequency index is 125.4 (previous value: 125.3), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 point and a year - on - year increase of 4.7 points (previous value: 4.7 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The electric furnace operating rate is 65.4% (previous value: 66.0%), and the polyester operating rate is 90.9% (previous value: 93.3%) [1][13]. 3.3 Real Estate Sales: New Home Sales Year - on - Year Remain Negative - The real estate sales high - frequency index is 44.8 (previous value: 44.9), with a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 point and a year - on - year decrease of 6.6 points (previous value: 6.6 points), and the year - on - year decline rate remains unchanged. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities is 31.0 million square meters (previous value: 27.7 million square meters), and the land premium rate of 100 large - and medium - sized cities is 10.1% (previous value: 1.2%) [1][24]. 3.4 Infrastructure Investment: Petroleum Asphalt Operating Rate Continues to Decline - The infrastructure investment high - frequency index is 117.9 (previous value: 117.7), with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 point and a year - on - year increase of 1.2 points (previous value: 0.9 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expands. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants is 27.7% (previous value: 30.8%) [1][40]. 3.5 Exports: Export Container Freight Rate Index Continues to Rise - The export high - frequency index is 144.4 (previous value: 144.5), with a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 point and a year - on - year increase of 6.5 points (previous value: 6.8 points), and the year - on - year growth rate narrows. The CCFI index is 1118 points (previous value: 1107 points), and the export price index of Yiwu small commodities is 108 points (previous value: 104 points) [1][42]. 3.6 Consumption: Passenger Car Manufacturer Retail Sales Rebound - The consumption high - frequency index is 119.3 (previous value: 119.4), with a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 point and a year - on - year increase of 1.4 points (previous value: 1.4 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. Passenger car manufacturer retail sales are 60,823 units (previous value: 51,175 units), and wholesale sales are 75,923 units (previous value: 56,286 units) [1][54]. 3.7 CPI: Pork Prices Continue to Fall - The CPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is - 0.1% (previous value: 0.0%). The average wholesale price of pork is 20.7 yuan/kg (previous value: 20.8 yuan/kg) [1][63]. 3.8 PPI: Rebar Prices Continue to Decline - The PPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is - 0.2% (previous value: - 0.3%). The settlement price of rebar futures is 3,237 yuan/ton (previous value: 3,299 yuan/ton) [1][69]. 3.9 Transportation: Both Passenger Transport and Flights Decline - The transportation high - frequency index is 127.6 (previous value: 127.4), with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 point and a year - on - year increase of 8.0 points (previous value: 7.8 points), and the year - on - year growth rate increases. The passenger volume of the subway in first - tier cities is 38.53 million person - times (previous value: 38.66 million person - times), and the number of domestic flights is 12,682 flights (previous value: 12,744 flights) [2][81]. 3.10 Inventory: Soda Ash Inventory Continues to Decline - The inventory high - frequency index is 160.1 (previous value: 160.0), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 point and a year - on - year increase of 9.9 points (previous value: 9.9 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The soda ash inventory is 161.3 million tons (previous value: 167.7 million tons) [2][86]. 3.11 Financing: 6M National - Share Banker's Acceptance Bill Rediscount Rate Rebounds - The financing high - frequency index is 227.9 (previous value: 227.3), with a week - on - week increase of 0.6 point and a year - on - year increase of 29.1 points (previous value: 29.1 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The 6M national - share banker's acceptance bill rediscount rate is 1.10% (previous value: 1.08%) [2][98].

Core Viewpoint - The article provides a forecast for various macroeconomic indicators in May, indicating a mixed outlook for industrial production, fixed asset investment, retail sales, trade, and monetary conditions, reflecting ongoing economic adjustments and external influences. Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial added value is expected to grow by 6% year-on-year in May, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 49.5, indicating a recovery in production and demand [1] - Key indicators show a decline in the operating rates of automotive tires, while the chemical industry shows varied performance [1] Group 2: Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment is projected to grow by 3.9% year-on-year in May, with manufacturing and real estate investments declining, while infrastructure investment remains stable [2] - High-frequency data indicates a decrease in steel prices and an increase in asphalt operating rates, supporting stable infrastructure investment [2] Group 3: Retail Sales - Social retail sales are expected to grow by 4.7% year-on-year in May, down from 5.1% in April, with service retail showing stronger growth [3] - The automotive market is experiencing cautious sentiment due to international uncertainties, impacting retail sales growth [3] Group 4: Trade - Exports are forecasted to grow by 5% year-on-year in May, while imports are expected to remain flat at 0% [4] - Factors such as increased port activity in Southeast Asia and tariff reductions are influencing export dynamics [4] Group 5: Monetary Conditions - New credit is expected to reach 800 billion yuan in May, with total social financing at 2 trillion yuan and M2 growth at 7.7% [5] - The article notes a shift in loan dynamics, with government bonds contributing significantly to social financing [5] Group 6: Inflation - CPI is projected to decline by 0.1% year-on-year in May, while PPI is expected to drop to -3% [5] - Price movements in fresh produce and energy are influencing inflation metrics [5] Group 7: Economic Forecasts - A summary table outlines various economic indicators for May 2025, including GDP growth, industrial added value, retail sales, fixed asset investment, exports, imports, trade surplus, CPI, PPI, and M2 growth [6]