格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 07 月 21 日星期一 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 研究员： 张晓君 从业资格：F0242716 交易咨询资格：Z0011864 | | | 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 上周五生猪期货主力合约震荡偏强，LH2509合约日涨幅1.07%，收于14135元/吨；L | | | | H2511合约日涨幅0.96%，收于13635元/吨。 | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | 1、20日全国生猪均价14.34元/公斤，较18日涨0.17元/公斤；预计今日早间猪价北 | | | | 弱南强，东北调整至14-14.7元/公斤，山东弱稳至14.3-14.9元/公斤，河南微跌至1 | | | | 4.4-14.7元/公斤，四川稳定至13.5-13.8元/公斤，广东涨至15.8-16.2元/公斤，广 | | | | 西涨至13.8-14.3元/公斤。 | | | | 2、官方口径显示我国25年6月能繁母猪存栏4043万头，同比增长0.1%，是 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For rebar futures, based on the comprehensive analysis of the Great Wall Futures AI intelligent big - data quantitative strategy model, the main contract of rebar futures has entered the fourth week of the red energy ladder area. The daily - level price of rebar futures is in an upward channel, and steel spot enterprises can consider an 80% long - hedging plan [7]. - For iron ore futures, according to the Great Wall Futures AI intelligent data model, the main contract of iron ore futures has entered the third week of the medium - term red energy stage area, and spot enterprises can consider a step - by - step 50% long - hedging strategy [33]. 3. Summary by Directory Rebar Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - The main contract of rebar futures has entered the fourth week of the red energy ladder area. The weekly output of rebar is 2.09 million tons, the apparent consumption is 2.06 million tons, the inventory of major steel mills is 1.73 million tons, and the social inventory is 5.66 million tons. The daily - level price of rebar futures is in an upward channel. Steel spot enterprises can consider an 80% long - hedging plan [7]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The main contract of rebar futures entered the third week of the red energy ladder area [10]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The main contract of rebar futures is in the fourth week of the red energy ladder area in the medium - term trend. Steel spot enterprises can consider a step - by - step 80% long - hedging strategy [11][12]. - **Related Data Situation** - **Variety Diagnosis Situation**: The main funds of rebar futures are strongly bearish, with a multi - short flow of - 81.0. The capital energy is 17.5 FP, remaining basically stable. The multi - short divergence is 97.3, indicating a high risk of market reversal [25]. Iron Ore Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - The main contract of iron ore futures has entered the third week of the medium - term red energy stage area. The global shipment volume of iron ore last week was 29.87 million tons, the arrival volume at 45 major ports in China was 26.62 million tons, the inventory of steel enterprises was 88.22 million tons, and the inventory at major domestic ports was 137.85 million tons. Spot enterprises can consider a step - by - step 50% long - hedging strategy [33]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The main contract of iron ore futures entered the second week of the medium - term red energy stage area [36]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: Spot enterprises can consider a step - by - step 50% long - hedging strategy [36]. - **Related Data Situation** - Specific variety diagnosis and selected indicator data are not provided in the text.

2025.07.21-07.25 工业硅、碳酸锂 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 工业硅期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 工业硅期货目前处于震荡筑底过程中。 中线趋势判断 1 n 上周策略回顾 工业硅价格筑底震荡运行，可考虑回调逢低少量做多。 n 本周策略建议 工业硅价格筑底震荡运行，可考虑回调逢低少量做多。 趋势判断逻辑 2 上周工业硅现货价格小幅上涨，截至7月18日新疆地区421#价格8900元/吨， 云南地区421#价格9900元/吨，四川地区421#价格9450元/吨。长城期货AI 智能投询品种诊断报告显示工业硅价格日线处在上升通道中。资金方面， 主力显示出较强的偏空情绪。 工业硅2509期货价格支撑位在7800—8200区间，建议逢低少量做多。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 相关数据情况 截止至2024年04月19日，上海期货交易所阴极铜库存为300,045吨，较上一周增加322吨。从季节性角度分析，当前库存较近五年相比维持在较高水平。 SHF阴极铜库存走势 SHF阴极铜库存季节性分析 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mystee ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: Unilateral trend is oscillating with an upward bias, and rolling long positions on the monthly spread are recommended. Keep an eye on the long PX and short EB/EG positions. The supply and demand of PX remain tight. On the supply side, the operating rate of domestic plants has decreased, and some plants have unexpectedly reduced their loads. In the second half of the month, attention should be paid to the possible maintenance of Tianjin Petrochemical. On the PTA side, the operating rate has rebounded, and the 1.5 million - ton Sanfangxiang plant is in trial operation. In terms of valuation, Shandong Yulong is about to start production, the valuation of MX has decreased, and the PX - MX spread has widened [8]. - PTA: Caught in the game between weak downstream demand and cost, TA shows a unilateral oscillating market. The 9 - 1 monthly spread should be operated within the range of 20 - 70. The PTA processing fee is still hard to improve. Regarding the spread between varieties, consider long PTA and short PF. On the supply - demand side, the operating rate of existing PTA plants continues to rise, and new plants are put into production, resulting in a loose supply. However, on the demand side, the impact of filament plant production cuts on the overall polyester operating rate is limited. This week, the polyester operating rate slightly dropped to 88.5% (-0.3%). PTA is expected to maintain a slight inventory accumulation pattern. Considering that the current PTA raw material inventory of polyester plants is not high, and after the bottle - chip plants restart in August, the polyester operating rate will gradually recover, the inventory accumulation of PTA in August is limited, and the basis will stabilize and rebound after falling to par [9]. - MEG: Reduce positions on the 9 - 1 monthly spread. The unilateral price of ethylene glycol should be operated within the range of 4250 - 4450. Regarding the basis and monthly spread, the market is concerned about the restart of Satellite Petrochemical at the end of August, which may create delivery pressure on the market in late August and the 09 contract on the futures market, so long positions on the monthly spread should be exited in the short term. From the supply perspective, imports were 620,000 tons in June, expected to be 630,000 tons in July, and less than 600,000 tons in August. The operating rate of domestic coal - based ethylene glycol plants is at a high level (70%). In July, attention should be paid to the restart of Yangmei Shouyang 200,000 - ton, Yulin Chemical 400,000 - ton, and Zhonghuaxue 300,000 - ton plants. The total load of domestic ethylene glycol is 66% (-1.37%). In August, attention should be paid to the restart progress of Guanghui 400,000 - ton, Zhejiang Petrochemical 800,000 - ton, and Satellite Petrochemical 900,000 - ton plants. Before there are no unexpected load changes in the ethylene plants, the supply is slightly loose. With weak polyester demand, the inventory days of MEG in polyester plants have been rising recently, limiting the upside space of the unilateral price of ethylene glycol [9][10]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - PX: On July 18, the price of Asian paraxylene increased by $6 per ton to $839.33 per ton CFR Unv1/China, driven by market sentiment and the strengthening of crude oil prices. This increase was mainly due to the market reaction after a technical problem occurred at the Shenghong Petrochemical refinery in China on July 16. However, some market participants believe the supply impact may be limited as Shenghong has obtained external mixed xylene raw materials. Attention is turning to the upcoming Sanfangxiang new PTA plant, which is expected to start production in late July, potentially increasing the demand for PX and adding upward pressure on prices. As of July 17, the overall operating rate of Chinese PX plants was about 81.10%, slightly lower than the previous week's 81.30%. On July 18, there were inquiries and offers for September and October delivery of PX cargoes, but no transactions were concluded [4][5][6]. - MEG: A 400,000 - ton/year syngas - based ethylene glycol plant in Xinjiang plans to restart in early August, which has been shut down since late March. Three ethylene glycol plants in Saudi Arabia with a total capacity of 1.7 million tons/year have encountered difficulties in restarting due to infrastructure problems, and their upstream and downstream plants are currently shut down, with the specific restart time undetermined [7]. - Polyester: A 200,000 - ton direct - spinning polyester staple fiber plant in Sichuan has restarted, planning to produce one line of hollow fibers and two lines of cotton - type fibers, and is expected to produce products this week. A 300,000 - ton polyester plant in Wuxi is restarting and is expected to produce normal filaments at the beginning of this week, mainly producing polyester filament yarn. A 250,000 - ton direct - spinning polyester staple fiber plant in Xinjiang has shut down for maintenance, with a previous daily output of 400 tons, and the restart time is undetermined. On the 18th, the sales of direct - spinning polyester staple fibers improved, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 84% by 3:00 pm. The sales - to - production ratio of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang also increased overall, with an estimated average sales - to - production ratio of about 90% by 3:30 pm [7]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of paraxylene, PTA, and MEG is all 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [8]. Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures**: The closing prices, price changes, and price change percentages of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures are provided, along with the changes in their monthly spreads [4]. - **Spot**: The prices and price changes of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG spot, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent are presented, as well as the changes in spot processing fees such as PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, etc. [4].

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Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the significant increase in polysilicon futures, which have risen over 30% in just half a month, prompting questions about the reasons behind this surge and the potential for further growth [1] - Palm oil futures have experienced three consecutive weeks of gains, raising inquiries about how bulls are ignoring the bearish impact of increased production [1] - The article emphasizes the need to monitor key commodities such as coking coal, soybean meal, SC crude oil, and lithium carbonate for potential investment opportunities and risks [1]

Group 1 - The main contracts for glass and soda ash futures experienced a rapid increase, with glass rising over 2% and soda ash nearly 2% [1]

农产品日报（2025 年 7 月 18 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 现货市场方面，进口玉米持续拍卖，进口供应增加，玉米市场供应压力加大。周 强运行，深加工玉米价格普遍上调 10-30 元/吨。价格持续下跌后，贸易商出货 | | | | 周四，玉米 9 月合约多空增持，主力合约期价在 2280 元的价格低位企稳上行。 | | | | 五进口玉米继续拍卖 22.89 万吨，进口玉米持续拍卖对市场的气氛有一定的不利 | | | | 影响，贸易商随行出货，东北玉米整体购销气氛较为清淡。华北地区玉米价格偏 | | | | | 下跌 | | | 积极性明显减弱，到货量维持低位。 销区市场玉米价格暂稳运行。经过短期的 | | | | 价格下调，市场逐步恢复平稳，港口贸易商报价暂稳，下游饲料厂仍执行前期订 | | | | 单为主，对于跌价的玉米观望为主。技术上，玉米 9 月合约期价围绕 2300 元整 | | | | 数关口波动，短线关注 2300 关口新增头寸对价格的提振性影响，中期价格延续 | | | | 偏弱表现。 | | | | 周四，C ...

Group 1: Report's Core View - On July 17th, glass and soda ash fluctuated with a slight upward trend. Glass price fluctuations are mainly driven by market sentiment. In the short - term, supply - demand has marginally improved, spot prices are stable, demand is resilient, inventory is being reduced, and market sentiment is positive, providing price support. For soda ash, recent maintenance has gradually ended, supply is expected to increase, direct demand is expected to weaken, concerns about supply - demand surplus have resurfaced, profits of float and photovoltaic glass are poor, and cost support has weakened, putting pressure on prices [2] - The trading strategy is to hold short - position options for soda ash and long - position contracts for glass [2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Data - For glass futures contracts in January, May, and September 2025, the closing prices are 1168, 1092, and 1236 respectively, with price increases of 6, 4, and 22, and increase rates of 0.52%, 0.32%, and 2.06% respectively. For soda ash futures contracts in the same months, the closing prices are 1271, 1307, and 1225 respectively, with price increases of 17, 16, and 17, and increase rates of 1.36%, 1.24%, and 1.41% respectively [1] - The price spreads between different glass futures contracts: January - May is - 68, May - September is 144, September - January is - 76; for soda ash, January - May is - 36, May - September is 82, September - January is - 46 [1] Spot Data - Glass spot prices in different regions: 1160 in the East China region, 1290 in another region, and 1300 in North China. Soda ash spot prices in different regions: 9960 in the Northwest, 1300 in North China, and 1250 in East China [1] Basis Data - The main glass basis in different regions: 68, 148, and 198; for soda ash, - 265, 75, and 25 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 09 - 01 reverse spread; Inter - variety: Short coal - based profit [3] Core View - The polyolefin market continues fundamental trading, with weak and stable prices. During the upstream petrochemical plant maintenance season, the number of maintenance enterprises increases slightly, capacity utilization decreases, and new capacity continues to be released, so the overall supply maintains an increasing trend. Enterprises' inventory accumulates, and the destocking rate is slow. Downstream demand remains in the off - season, the terminal operating rate remains low, and the overall operating rate changes little. Purchases are mainly for rigid demand, and there is little hope for improvement in the short term. International oil prices and propane prices continue to be weak, and are expected to remain weak, with weak cost support, and PDH - made PP profit remains slightly profitable [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7215元/吨（+1），PP主力合约收盘价为7020元/吨（+7），LL华北现货为7150元/吨（-10），LL华东现货为7190元/吨（-30），PP华东现货为7070元/吨（-10），LL华北基差为 - 65元/吨（-11），LL华东基差为 - 25元/吨（-31），PP华东基差为50元/吨（-17） [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为78.2%（+0.4%），PP开工率为77.3%（+0.7%）；PE油制生产利润为171.7元/吨（+4.6），PP油制生产利润为 - 208.3元/吨（+4.6），PDH制PP生产利润为301.8元/吨（+56.9） [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - LL进口利润为 - 101.2元/吨（+76.3），PP进口利润为 - 672.8元/吨（+0.0），PP出口利润为34.2美元/吨（+0.0） [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE下游农膜开工率为12.5%（-0.2%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.6%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率为41.4%（-0.6%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.8%（+0.2%） [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - No specific data provided in the given text