2025 年 4 月 29 日 股指期货将震荡整理 黄金、白银期货将偏强震荡 多晶 硅、碳酸锂、原油、PTA、PVC、豆粕期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将震荡整理：IF2506 阻力位 3748 和 3768 点，支撑位 3716 和 3705 点；IH2506 阻力位 2640 和 2650 点，支撑位 2612 和 2605 点；IC2506 阻力位 5510 和 5561 点，支撑位 5443 和 5420 点；IM2506 阻力位 57 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel market, although the price has rebounded due to the fading of the tariff - war sentiment, the overall nickel element is in surplus with strong nickel ore prices, and there is significant upward pressure. Despite favorable policy stimuli, the economic slowdown is inevitable. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, and the mid - to long - term strategy is to sell and hedge on price increases [3]. - For the stainless steel market, after the sentiment of the Sino - US tariff war fades, the price has returned. With strong nickel ore prices and increased nickel - iron costs, along with reduced production of 300 - series stainless steel, and recent policy stimuli, but weak demand, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term. The mid - to long - term strategy is also to sell and hedge on price increases [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On April 29, 2025, the main contract 2506 of Shanghai nickel opened at 125,250 yuan/ton and closed at 124,690 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.83% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 201,951 lots, and the open interest was 70,157 lots [1]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel opened lower and oscillated downward on the night session of Friday, rebounded slightly after the opening of the day session but continued to fall, and then oscillated and rebounded after getting support. It closed with a medium - sized negative line. The trading volume and open interest increased compared with the previous trading day [2]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will introduce measures to stabilize employment and the economy, and the People's Bank of China will use a moderately loose monetary policy and may cut reserve requirements and interest rates. The first - phase nickel ore domestic trade base price in Indonesia in May is expected to drop by about 1 US dollar, while the domestic trade premium will rise by 2 US dollars to 26 - 27 US dollars, with an overall increase of about 1 US dollar. Currently, nickel ore prices remain firm [2]. - In the spot market, Jinchuan nickel's morning quotation decreased by about 1,625 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of mainstream brands also decreased. The nickel price oscillated weakly, and downstream buyers remained on the sidelines. The spot trading of refined nickel was generally average, and most spot premiums and discounts remained stable. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by 100 yuan/ton to 2,250 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium changed by - 50 yuan/ton to 150 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 24,632 (- 168.0) tons, and LME nickel inventories were 201,426 (- 1,044) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - The short - term strategy is mainly range - bound operations, and the mid - to long - term strategy is to sell and hedge on price increases. For single - side trading, it is mainly range - bound operations, while there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On April 29, 2025, the main contract 2506 of stainless steel opened at 12,725 yuan/ton and closed at 12,765 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 186,219 lots, and the open interest was 103,278 lots [3]. - The main contract of stainless steel oscillated sideways slightly after the opening of the night session, fell slightly after the opening of the day session and then oscillated upward, closing with a medium - sized positive line. The trading volume increased, and the open interest decreased compared with the previous trading day [4]. - Similar to the nickel market, relevant policies were announced, and the situation of Indonesian nickel ore prices was the same. Nickel - iron prices were 970 - 975 yuan/nickel. The production of 300 - series stainless steel in April and May decreased [4]. - In the spot market, the stainless steel market oscillated upward, the cold - rolled price rebounded slightly, and the trading of low - priced resources was okay, meeting just - in - time demand. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market was 12,950 yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 13,000 yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 355 to 555 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 968.5 yuan/nickel point [5]. - **Strategy** - The short - term strategy is range - bound oscillations, and the mid - to long - term strategy is to sell and hedge on price increases. For single - side trading, it is neutral, while there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5].

早盘提示 Morning session notice 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | 推荐理由 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周一两市主要指数延续震荡行情，成长类指数偏弱。两市成交额 1.05 万亿元，变 | | | | | | | 化不大。中证 1000 指数收 5877 点，跌 62 点，跌幅-1.05%；中证 500 指数收 5598 | | | | | | | 点，跌 28 点，跌幅-0.51%；沪深 300 指数收 3781 点，跌 5 点，跌幅-0.14%；上证 | | | | | | | 50 指数收 2651 点，涨 2 点，涨幅 0.09%。行业与主题 ETF 中涨幅居前的是游戏 | | ETF、 | | | | | 银行 ETF 基金、科创芯片 50ETF、绿电 ETF、钢铁 ETF，跌幅居前的是房地产 ETF、 | | | | | | | 机器人 ETF 易方达、建 ...

晨报 成材 成材：缺乏驱动 钢价整理 逻辑：中国人民银行副行长邹澜表示，中国人民银行将用好用足适度 宽松的货币政策，根据国内外经济形势和金融市场运行情况，适时降准降 息，保持流动性充裕，创设新的结构性货币政策工具，围绕稳就业稳增长 重点领域精准加力，做好金融支持。4 月 28 日 Mysteel 统计 76 家独立电 弧炉建筑钢材钢厂平均成本为 3351 元/吨，日环比增加 2 元/吨，平均利 润为-69 元/吨，谷电利润为 36 元/吨，日环比增加 11 元/吨。4 月 21 日 -4 月 27 日，全球船厂共接获 16 艘新船订单。其中中国船厂接获 10 艘新 船订单；韩国船厂接获 6 艘新船订单。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成 材：武秋婷 成文时间： 2025 年 4 月 29 日 重要声明： 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；下游需求情况。 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-04-29 股指震荡调整，银行板块再度走强 市场分析 国内政策稳步推进。宏观方面，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展政策措施有关情况。 央行副行长表示，适时降准降息，保持流动性充裕；将发挥好货币政策工具箱总量和结构双重功能，适时推出增 量政策。国家发改委副主任表示，将加力推动既定政策落地见效，包括提振消费专项行动、用好今年国家层面5万 亿元投资资金、加快设立国家创业投资引导基金等，这些政策大部分将在二季度落地。商务部副部长表示，将设 立大型成套设备出口专项信贷等支持工具，让外贸企业更有底气接单。人社部副部长表示，我国就业政策工具箱 充足，将根据形势变化及时推出。海外方面，美国财长贝森特表示，正与18个交易伙伴进行定制化协议，首笔贸 易协议可能最早在本周或下周达成。 策略 总的来看，关税政策仍给市场带来压力，同时市场等待科技股财报，美股三大指数涨跌不一。中国再度否认同美 国进行关税问题磋商，彰显坚定立场。国内政策工具箱储备丰富，各项政策稳步推进，有助于托底经济。A股财报 披露进入尾声，当前仍建议重点关注IH机会。 风险 若国内政策落地不及预期、海外货币政策超预期、地 ...

国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展政策措施有关情况。央行副行长邹澜表示， 将根据国内外经济形势和金融市场运行情况，适时降准降息，保持流动性充裕，发挥好货币政策工具箱 总量和结构双重功能，创设新的结构性货币政策工具，围绕稳就业、稳增长的重点领域精准发力，做好 金融支持。还在研究丰富政策工具箱，将适时推出增量政策，助力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期。 【操作建议】 【资金面】 央行公告称，4月28日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了2790亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.50%， 投标量2790亿元，中标量2790亿元。当日1760亿元逆回购到期，据此算，单日净投放1030亿元。资金面 方面，存款类机构隔夜和七天质押式回购利率一降一升，前者下行近2个bp，后者因跨月原因上行超3个 bp。长期资金方面，全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单最新成交在1.78%附近，较上日略有上行。 央行在上周进行了超预期规模的MLF续做后，近两日公开市场也维持稳步净投放，资金面预期跨月平 稳。 【政策面】 【市场表现】 国债期货收盘多数上涨，30年期主力合约涨0.30%报120.180元，10年期主力合约涨0.03%报 ...

行 业 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 HTTP://WWW.QH168.COM.CN 1 / 8 请务必仔细阅读正文后免责申明 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 ...

国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展政策措施有关情况。央行副行长邹澜表示， 适时降准降息，保持流动性充裕；将发挥好货币政策工具箱总量和结构双重功能，适时推出增量政策。 国家发改委表示，将建立和实施育儿补贴制度，创设专项再贷款工具、加大对服务消费重点领域和养老 产业发展的支持；指导限购城市，针对长期摇号家庭和无车家庭等重点群体，定向增发购车指标；力争 6 月底前要下达 2025 年 " 两重 " 建设和中央预算内投资全部项目清单。 国内商品期货夜盘收盘普遍下跌，国际贵金属期货普遍收涨。 重点品种： 股指、贵金属、集运 股指： 美国三大指数涨跌不一，上一交易日股指回落为主，银行板块领涨，房地产板块领跌，全市成 交额 1.08 万亿元，其中 IH2505 下跌 0.08% ， IF2505 下跌 0.21% ， IC2505 下跌 0.53% ， IM2505 下跌 0.95% 。资金方面， 4 月 25 日融资余额减少 54.02 亿元至 17914.72 亿元。从本次关税争端风波来看上 证 50 和沪深 300 走势更为坚挺，这两个指数里的内需比重比较高，若后续中美间争端持续，受影响程 度会相对 ...

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Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Treasury Department has raised its borrowing forecast for Q2 to $514 billion [13] - China's gold consumption in Q1 decreased by 5.96% year-on-year, while gold ETF holdings increased by 23.47 tons [13] - The People's Bank of China plans to implement timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, along with new structural monetary policy tools [12][13] Group 2: Stock Market Performance - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones up by 0.28% and the Nasdaq down by 0.1% [4] - European stock indices closed higher, with the German DAX30 up by 0.13% and the European Stoxx 50 up by 0.32% [5] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell by 0.04%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.12% [5] Group 3: Commodity Prices - Spot gold rose by 0.79% to $3344.26 per ounce, while spot silver increased by 0.25% to $33.16 per ounce [8] - WTI crude oil fell by 2.06% to $61.68 per barrel, marking a near two-week low [8] - Brent crude oil decreased by 1.97% to $64.61 per barrel [8] Group 4: International Relations and Trade - Trump stated that there are no red lines that would change U.S. tariff policies [11] - The U.S. and Ukraine are expected to sign a mineral agreement soon, enhancing the stability and fairness of the deal [11] - Pakistan's defense minister warned of an imminent military offensive from India [13]