Group 1 - The recent escalation of the US-China trade war involves both countries revealing their strategies, with China implementing countermeasures targeting critical sectors such as rare earths, port services, and the chip industry, while the US responds with a 100% tariff increase [1] - China's counteractions are not merely emotional responses but are based on its control over key industries and resources, indicating a strategic foresight beyond passive reactions [1][9] - The US's aggressive stance on tariffs conceals internal reservations about the severity of a full-blown conflict, as indicated by US Trade Representative Tai's comments suggesting that there is "no need for a trade war" [1][5] Group 2 - The volatility in the US stock market, particularly in the tech sector, reflects concerns over extreme policies, with companies losing billions in market value, highlighting their deep reliance on the Chinese market and supply chains [3] - High tariffs are expected to increase corporate costs and inflationary pressures, affecting various sectors including agriculture and finance, which may lead to a reconsideration of extreme tariff policies in the future [5] - European countries exhibit a divided stance, with Germany showing anxiety due to its reliance on Chinese supply chains, while other European nations remain cautious, indicating the complexities of global interdependence [7] Group 3 - The trade war represents a contest of confidence and strategy rather than mere rhetoric, with China demonstrating its accumulated strength through decisive actions, while the US balances its hardline approach with underlying concerns [9] - The escalation of the trade conflict reflects the fragility of current global industrial, political, and social structures, suggesting that the outcomes may already be determined by market dynamics and strategic depth rather than direct confrontations [9]

Core Viewpoint - The rare earth permanent magnet sector in the A-share market is experiencing significant growth, with all eight companies that have released third-quarter earnings forecasts reporting positive results, and many showing over 100% increase in net profit for the first three quarters of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - North Rare Earth expects a net profit of 1.51 billion to 1.57 billion yuan for the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year increase of 272.54% to 287.34% [1]. - Zhongke Sanhuan anticipates a net profit of 80 million to 100 million yuan, with a growth rate of 290.24% to 337.79% compared to the previous year [1]. - Shenghe Resources forecasts a net profit of 740 million to 820 million yuan, reflecting an increase of 696.82% to 782.96% year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The positive performance in the rare earth permanent magnet sector is attributed to two main factors: rising rare earth prices and the strategic importance of rare earths in the context of the China-U.S. trade war [2]. - Companies are optimizing production and marketing strategies, enhancing management capabilities, and controlling costs to capitalize on market opportunities [2]. Group 3: Stock Performance - Hunan Silver's stock price increased from 3.39 yuan per share at the beginning of the year to 8.04 yuan per share by October 17, marking a rise of over 100% [3]. - Yujing Co.'s stock rose from 19.41 yuan per share to 34.63 yuan per share, reflecting an increase of nearly 80% [3]. - Keli Yuan's stock price increased from 4.05 yuan per share to 5.92 yuan per share, showing a growth of nearly 50% [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global soybean supply and demand pattern shows no obvious positive factors. The new - season soybean planting in Brazil is progressing normally, and the estimated planting area is increasing. The domestic soybean import cost is expected to fluctuate weakly. The domestic double - meal market is under real - time supply pressure, with soybean inventory at a record high and no clear positive factors on the cost side. In the medium term, the expectation of a loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, setting the direction of selling on rebounds. In the short term, there are uncertainties in South American planting and weather, and the bean - meal destocking season provides some support. It is expected that the bean - meal market will fluctuate weakly [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **International Soybeans**: This week, US soybeans fluctuated weakly. The global soybean supply - demand pattern shows no obvious positive factors. Brazil's new - season soybean planting is progressing normally, and institutional estimates suggest an increase in the planting area. Brazil's premium quotes fluctuated this week, and the soybean arrival cost remained stable. The valuation of US soybeans is currently slightly low, and there is some room for the Brazilian premium to decline. Since there is no significant decline in the global soybean supply, the domestic soybean import cost is expected to fluctuate weakly. Whether to import US soybeans is yet to be determined. If China continues not to import US soybeans, the Brazilian quotes will remain strong, providing some support for the bean - meal market. If partial or full import of US soybeans is allowed, the bean - meal market may first trade the short - term supply pressure, causing the price to decline. Then, after the game between US soybeans and the Brazilian premium ends, the import cost will stabilize, and the bean - meal market will trade based on the cost [9]. - **Domestic Double - Meal**: This week, the domestic bean - meal spot market weakened, the basis increased, the futures market weakened, and the oil - mill's futures crushing profit declined. Domestic trading volume was average, and the pick - up volume rebounded to a relatively high level. The inventory days of feed enterprises were 7.93 days, slightly higher than the same period last year, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.41 days. As of October 14, institutional statistics showed that the purchased volume in August was 9.2 million tons, 8.76 million tons in September, 8.26 million tons in October, and 5.33 million tons in November. The current purchase progress indicates that the domestic soybean inventory may decline around the end of September. Coupled with the large - scale pick - up of domestic bean - meal, the domestic bean - based basis has some support [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is that the market is expected to fluctuate weakly. The core driving logic is that the domestic supply is under real - time pressure, with soybean inventory at a record high and no clear positive factors on the cost side. In the medium term, the expectation of a loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, setting the direction of selling on rebounds. In the short term, there are uncertainties in South American planting and weather, and the bean - meal destocking season provides some support [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price**: The report presents the historical spot price trends of soybean meal in Dongguan, Guangdong, and rapeseed meal in Huangpu, Guangdong, from 2021 to 2025 [17][18]. - **Basis of the Main Contract**: The report shows the historical basis trends of the soybean - meal 01 contract and the rapeseed - meal 01 contract from February to October 2025 [20][21]. - **Spread**: The report displays the historical spread trends of the soybean - meal 01 - 05, 03 - 05, 11 - 1 spreads, and the soybean - meal 01 - rapeseed - meal 01 spread from 2021 to 2026 [22][23]. - **Fund Position**: The report shows the historical net - long positions of the management funds in US soybeans and US soybean meal from May 2020 to September 2025, along with the corresponding futures prices [25][26][29]. 3.3. Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: The report presents the historical planting progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, and excellent - good rate of US soybeans from 2021 to 2025 [31][32]. - **Weather Conditions**: There is a possibility of La Niña occurring from October 2025 to January 2026. The report also shows the weighted precipitation and forecasts in the US and Brazilian soybean - producing areas until October 31, 2025, as well as the impact and frequency of La Niña on precipitation in North America from July to September and its climate impact on South America [34][35][36]. - **US Soybean Export Progress**: The report shows the historical trends of the total export contracts signed by the US soybeans in the current market year to China, the sales completion rate of the current year, the total export contracts signed in the current market year, and the cumulative export shipment volume to China from 2021/22 to 2025/26 [49][50]. - **China's Oilseed Imports**: The report presents the historical monthly import volume and forecasts of soybeans and rapeseeds in China from 2021 to 2025 [52][53]. - **China's Oil - Mill Crushing Situation**: The report shows the historical soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes of major oil mills from 2021/22 to 2025/26 [54][55]. 3.4. Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory**: The report presents the historical port inventory of soybeans and the inventory of rapeseeds in major oil mills from 2021 to 2025 [58][59]. - **Protein - Meal Inventory**: The report shows the historical inventory and forecasts of soybean meal in major coastal oil mills and the inventory of rapeseed meal in major coastal oil mills from 2021 to 2025 [61][62]. - **Protein - Meal Crushing Profit**: The report presents the historical crushing profits of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseeds in coastal areas from 2021 to 2025 [63][64]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Consumption and Transaction**: The report shows the historical cumulative transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills in the crop year and the apparent consumption of soybean meal from 2021/22 to 2025/26 [66]. - **Breeding Profit**: The report presents the historical per - head profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the per - feather profit of white - feather broiler breeding from 2021 to 2025 [67][68].

面对这一局面，中国的立场始终清晰而坚定：我们不惧怕与美国展开"贸易战"，若战必奉陪到底。然而，从美国上下表现出的紧张神情不难看出，旷日持久 的关税战只会让美国自身遭受更严重的损失。事实上，特朗普和美国财政部长也深知这一点，否则他们不会提出以三个月的关税缓冲期来换取中国放弃稀土 管制措施。 此前中美贸易磋商的结果显示，双方关税的缓冲期将于下个月的十号到期。这意味着，留给两国达成最终协议的时间已不足一个月。一旦在此期间未能就新 的关税条款达成一致，美国极有可能对中国商品征收数倍的关税，届时中美两国市场将面临彻底脱钩的严峻风险。 按理说，既然美国已在中国"稀土大棒"的威力下感到痛苦，并请求中国网开一面，至少应摆出诚恳求人的姿态，而非继续以一种高高在上、施舍般的傲慢姿 态示人。事已至此，美国难道还不认为手握高科技含量的芯片便能拿捏中国吗？ 究竟是芯片杀伤力更大，还是稀土威力更强，两者之间的内在联系已然揭示了答案。稀土是制造精密芯片不可或缺的关键原材料。换言之，一旦稀土资源的 供应中断，美国的芯片制造企业和军事工业将面临停滞，甚至可能走向破产。因此，对比之下，稀土的战略价值显然远超芯片。难怪稀土被誉为"工业的维 生素" ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the complex power struggle behind the U.S. government's policy towards China, particularly regarding rare earth exports, indicating a deeper tension between the two nations [1][3]. - Trump's declaration of a "trade war" suggests a proactive stance, while U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent's more moderate approach hints at internal disagreements on how to handle relations with China [1][3]. - The current state of U.S.-China relations is described as a "trade truce," with both sides seeking solutions to avoid full-scale conflict before the tariff exemption deadline [3][5]. Group 2 - Rare earth resources are emphasized as strategically vital for modern technology industries, and China's recent expansion of export controls has heightened U.S. concerns [3][5]. - Bessent's proposal to extend tariff exemptions in exchange for China easing rare earth export controls reflects a strategy of pressure and negotiation, but China remains firm in its stance [3][5]. - The article notes that the rare earth issue has become a potential flashpoint in U.S.-China relations, with American companies scrambling to secure shipping capacity for Chinese orders, indicating the difficulty of finding alternatives in the short term [3][5]. Group 3 - The article discusses a subtle shift in U.S. strategy towards China, balancing pressure for benefits with attempts to negotiate to avoid conflict, which could escalate tensions if not managed effectively [5][7]. - China has made it clear that negotiations must address mutual concerns and cannot be superficial, signaling a demand for sincerity from the U.S. in any dialogue [5][7]. - The future of U.S.-China relations remains uncertain, with both nations motivated to avoid a full trade war, but this motivation could be disrupted by domestic economic pressures or political interests [5][7]. Group 4 - The ongoing trade war is characterized as entering a new phase of negotiation and potential conflict, with the need for effective communication and cooperation being crucial for both sides [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The document does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - The gold market is influenced by factors such as the US government's fiscal situation, Fed officials' statements, and credit crises, with a recommendation to hold gold long - positions and be cautious with silver long - positions [1]. - For base metals, copper is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger; aluminum may maintain a volatile trend; alumina is likely to be volatile and weaker; industrial silicon is expected to oscillate within a certain range; lithium carbonate is in a tight balance and warrants observation; polysilicon's future depends on the progress of the storage platform; and tin should be treated with an oscillating mindset [2][3]. - In the black industry, steel has limited supply - demand contradictions and obvious structural differentiation, with a suggestion to hold short - positions in rebar [4]. - For agricultural products, soybeans are in range - bound oscillation, corn is expected to decline seasonally, palm oil trading is complex, cotton requires observation, and prices of eggs and hogs are expected to decline [5][6]. - In the energy and chemical sector, LLDPE is expected to be short - term volatile and long - term supply - demand will be more relaxed; PVC should be short - allocated; PX and PTA are expected to be weak; rubber is short - term volatile; glass requires observation; PP is short - term volatile and long - term supply - demand will ease; MEG should be observed short - term and shorted long - term; crude oil short - positions should be held; styrene is short - term volatile and long - term supply - demand will be more relaxed; and soda ash requires observation [7][8][9][10]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Gold Market - Market Performance: International gold prices denominated in London Gold continued to rise, breaking through $4300 [1]. - Fundamentals: The US Senate failed to advance the Republican's temporary appropriation bill; Fed officials had different views on interest rate cuts; there were loan fraud and bad debt problems in US banks; gold and silver inventories in various places changed; gold and silver ETF holdings changed [1]. - Trading Strategy: Hold gold long - positions and be cautious with silver long - positions [1]. Base Metals Copper - Market Performance: Copper prices oscillated weakly [2]. - Fundamentals: Fed officials supported interest rate cuts; there were concerns about US bank loans; the supply of copper mines remained tight; domestic inventories increased; and the London structure was in contango [2]. - Trading Strategy: Treat it with an oscillating and slightly stronger mindset [2]. Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.31% [2]. - Fundamentals: Aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate decreased slightly [2]. - Trading Strategy: Observe temporarily as the price may maintain a volatile trend [2]. Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 0.25% [2]. - Fundamentals: Alumina plants maintained high production, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - Trading Strategy: Observe temporarily as the price is expected to be volatile and weaker [3]. Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: The main contract price increased, and the position and capital changed [3]. - Fundamentals: The number of furnaces increased, and production might decrease in the southwest in October; social inventories increased slightly, and demand was supported by high - grade polysilicon start - up rates [3]. - Trading Strategy: The price is expected to oscillate between 8200 - 9300 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to macro - level events [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The main contract price increased by 3.1% [3]. - Fundamentals: Production reached a new high, imports changed, demand for downstream products increased, and inventories decreased [3]. - Trading Strategy: Observe due to high spot demand and tight supply [3]. Polysilicon - Market Performance: The main contract price increased, and the position and capital changed [3]. - Fundamentals: Production was expected to increase, industry inventories increased, downstream product prices were stable, and domestic photovoltaic installation growth might be under pressure [3]. - Trading Strategy: Focus on the progress of the storage platform, with support at the bottom and a reference upper limit for the spot price; consider light - position long - positions for contracts after December [3]. Tin - Market Performance: Tin prices oscillated [3]. - Fundamentals: There were concerns about US bank loans, Fed officials supported interest rate cuts, and the supply of tin mines remained tight [3]. - Trading Strategy: Treat it with an oscillating mindset [3]. Black Industry Rebar Steel - Market Performance: The main contract price increased [4]. - Fundamentals: Rebar demand was weak but the supply - demand contradiction was relieved after production cuts; plate demand was stable; overall, steel supply - demand contradictions were limited with obvious structural differentiation, and the valuation was neutral [4]. - Trading Strategy: Hold short - positions in rebar, with a reference range of 3020 - 3090 yuan/ton [4]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: The main contract price increased [4]. - Fundamentals: Port inventories increased, iron - water production decreased, steel mill profitability decreased slightly, and the supply - demand was slightly stronger with a forward - discount structure and neutral valuation [4]. - Trading Strategy: Observe, with a reference range of 755 - 785 yuan/ton [4]. Coking Coal - Market Performance: The main contract price increased [4]. - Fundamentals: Iron - water production decreased, steel mill profits were stable at a low level, the first round of coke price increase was implemented, and the futures valuation was high [4]. - Trading Strategy: Observe, with a reference range of 1155 - 1215 yuan/ton [4]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market Performance: Soybeans rose slightly [5]. - Fundamentals: US soybeans had a slight reduction in production, South America was expected to increase production, and there was a structural differentiation in US soybean demand [5]. - Trading Strategy: US soybeans are in range - bound oscillation, and domestic soybean meal is weak in the short - term with high mid - term uncertainty [5]. Corn - Market Performance: Futures prices were weak, and spot prices fluctuated [5]. - Fundamentals: Bad weather in North China affected corn harvesting, and new grain listing pressure was approaching [6]. - Trading Strategy: Futures prices are expected to decline seasonally [6]. Palm Oil - Market Performance: Malaysian palm oil continued to rise [6]. - Fundamentals: Production in Malaysia decreased seasonally, and exports increased [6]. - Trading Strategy: Palm oil trading is complex, and the P structure is suitable for reverse spreads [6]. Cotton - Market Performance: US cotton futures rebounded, and domestic cotton oscillated slightly [6]. - Fundamentals: International cotton inventory was stable, and domestic cotton acquisition prices and picking progress changed [6]. - Trading Strategy: Observe, with a range - bound strategy of 13200 - 13600 yuan/ton [6]. Eggs - Market Performance: Futures prices were weak, and spot prices fluctuated [6]. - Fundamentals: Post - holiday demand decreased, and supply increased [6]. - Trading Strategy: Futures prices are expected to decline [6]. Hogs - Market Performance: Futures prices were weak, and spot prices rebounded [6]. - Fundamentals: Post - holiday demand decreased, and supply increased [6]. - Trading Strategy: Futures prices are expected to decline [6]. Energy and Chemical LLDPE - Market Performance: The main contract oscillated slightly, and the import window was closed [7]. - Fundamentals: Supply pressure increased but at a slower pace, and demand improved in the agricultural film season [7]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term oscillation, and long - term supply - demand will be more relaxed, consider short - positions at high prices [7]. PVC - Market Performance: The price continued to decline, and trading was light [8]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased, demand was weak, costs were expected to decline, and inventories were high [8]. - Trading Strategy: Short - allocate [8]. PX and PTA - Market Performance: PX and PTA prices changed, and the PTA basis was negative [3]. - Fundamentals: PX supply was high, PTA short - term supply pressure was relieved, and polyester demand and inventories were in a certain state [3]. - Trading Strategy: PX and PTA are expected to be weak, and short - sell processing fees for far - month contracts [3]. Rubber - Market Performance: The main contract price increased slightly [8]. - Fundamentals: Raw material prices were stable, tire factory production capacity utilization increased, and inventories rose slightly [8]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term oscillation, and gradually stop losses on short - positions [8]. Glass - Market Performance: The price was stable, and supply decreased in the short - term [8]. - Fundamentals: Supply was high, inventories increased, and downstream demand was weak [8]. - Trading Strategy: Observe [8]. PP - Market Performance: The main contract oscillated slightly, the import window was closed, and the export window was open [9]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased, and demand was in the peak season but with some pre - consumed demand [9]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term oscillation, and long - term supply - demand will ease, consider short - positions at high prices [9]. MEG - Market Performance: The spot price and basis changed [9]. - Fundamentals: Supply pressure increased, inventories were low, and polyester demand and inventories were in a certain state [9]. - Trading Strategy: Observe short - term, and short - sell long - term [9]. Crude Oil - Market Performance: Oil prices declined [9]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased, and demand decreased seasonally and might be affected by trade relations [9]. - Trading Strategy: Hold short - positions [9]. Styrene - Market Performance: The main contract oscillated slightly, and the import window was closed [9]. - Fundamentals: Pure benzene and styrene inventories were at certain levels, and downstream demand was complex [9]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term oscillation, and long - term supply - demand will be more relaxed, consider short - positions at high prices [9]. Soda Ash - Market Performance: The price increased slightly [10]. - Fundamentals: Supply was high, inventories increased slightly, and downstream demand was in a certain state [10]. - Trading Strategy: Observe [10].

Group 1 - Gold prices surged by $80, breaking through the $4200 mark, followed by a sharp decline of $60, but then rebounded again, indicating a strong bullish trend [1][3] - The recent price movements show a pattern of volatility, with gold returning above $4200 and approaching historical highs around $4240, with expectations to reach $4300 [3][5] - The year-to-date performance of gold has been impressive, with a total increase of over $1500, and a significant rise of more than $700 in the last two months alone [7] Group 2 - Key factors influencing gold prices include geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S.-China trade war, which has created uncertainty and increased demand for gold as a safe haven [9] - The U.S. national debt has reached a record high of over $37.8 trillion, contributing to market volatility and impacting investor sentiment towards gold [9] - Upcoming economic data releases, such as U.S. retail sales and PPI, are critical as they may influence Federal Reserve policy and subsequently affect gold and dollar movements [10] Group 3 - Investment strategies in gold emphasize the importance of timing and market entry/exit points, which require extensive experience and practical knowledge [10] - A successful trading approach involves managing risk effectively while maximizing profit opportunities, with a focus on following experienced traders for better outcomes [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyester industry chain is weak, and the PTA processing fee is compressed again. The supply - demand contradiction of over - supply has emerged due to factors such as the slowdown of China's import demand after the National Day, the increase in US exports, and the increase in Middle East exports. The macro and fundamentals resonate, putting pressure on the fundamentals without a clear rebound driver in the short term [1]. - For PX, the PXN is under pressure due to factors like the resumption of high - load operation in China, the restart of overseas devices, the postponement of the fourth - quarter maintenance plan, and the expansion of individual devices in the fourth quarter. The downstream PTA factory's production reduction and postponed new device production also affect the market sentiment, weakening the Q4 supply - demand outlook [1]. - For TA, the processing fee is repaired but suppressed. The accumulation of inventory is narrowed in October - November due to more maintenance plans and postponed new device production, but the inventory accumulation pressure is large in December. The market supply is abundant, and the demand is slightly boosted by pre - holiday stocking, but the increase in polyester load is limited [2]. - For PF, the production profit has increased, the factory inventory has decreased to a low level, and the short - term supply - demand situation is better than that of the raw material end, and the processing fee is expected to be maintained [3]. - For PR, the processing fee has increased. The load remains stable, the inventory has increased due to holidays, and the supply - demand pressure is large under the new device production pressure. The processing fee is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger, and attention should be paid to raw material price fluctuations [3]. - In terms of strategies, for single - side operations, it is recommended to cautiously short - sell PX/PTA/PF/PR on rallies. For cross - variety operations, it is recommended to buy PF processing fees at low prices. For cross - period operations, it is recommended to conduct reverse spreads for PX/PTA2601 - 2605 [4]. Summary According to the Directory Price and Basis - The TA main - contract spot basis is - 85 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of - 3 yuan/ton), the PTA spot processing fee is 83 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of - 102 yuan/ton), and the main - contract disk processing fee is 306 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of + 0 yuan/ton) [2]. Upstream Profits and Spreads - The PX processing fee PXN is 226 US dollars/ton (with a month - on - month change of + 1.75 US dollars/ton). The PXN is under pressure due to factors such as the resumption of high - load operation of PX in China, the restart of overseas devices, the postponed maintenance plan, and the expansion of individual devices in the fourth quarter [1]. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits No specific data and in - depth analysis provided in the given text. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - China's PX load has gradually recovered to a relatively high - load operation. With the restart of several overseas devices, the overall PX start - up rate has increased. The PTA load is increasing from a low level, and there are more maintenance plans [1][2]. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The accumulation of PTA inventory is narrowed in October - November due to more maintenance plans and postponed new device production, but the inventory accumulation pressure is large in December. The market supply is abundant [2]. Downstream Polyester Load - The polyester start - up rate is 91.5% (with a month - on - month change of + 0.0%). The load of weaving and texturing increased in late September, and the orders improved marginally. After the National Day, the filament inventory started to accumulate again, and the terminal raw material procurement is expected to be mainly cautious [2]. PF Detailed Data - The PF spot production profit is 346 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of + 46 yuan/ton). The direct - spinning polyester staple fiber load is at a seasonal high, the factory inventory has decreased to a low level, and the short - term supply - demand situation is better than that of the raw material end [3]. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The bottle - chip spot processing fee is 553 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of + 44 yuan/ton). The load remains stable, the inventory has increased due to holidays, and the supply - demand pressure is large under the new device production pressure. The processing fee is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger, and attention should be paid to raw material price fluctuations [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of polyolefins continue to be weak, leading to a downward trend in prices. For PE, factors such as inventory accumulation, weak cost support from crude oil, and new device production contribute to the decline. For PP, cost - side weakness and supply - demand imbalances cause the downward movement of the market [1][2][3] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价为6910元/吨（-8），PP主力合约收盘价为6595元/吨（-7），LL华北现货为6910元/吨（-60），LL华东现货为6950元/吨（-50），PP华东现货为6620元/吨（-20），LL华北基差为0元/吨（-52），LL华东基差为40元/吨（-42），PP华东基差为25元/吨（-13）[1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率为83.9%（+1.9%），PP开工率为77.7%（+1.1%）[1] - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润为452.3元/吨（-8.9），PP油制生产利润为 - 147.7元/吨（-8.9），PDH制PP生产利润为174.6元/吨（+64.2）[1] - **Import and Export**: LL进口利润为 - 108.2元/吨（-80.0），PP进口利润为 - 554.0元/吨（-30.0），PP出口利润为23.6美元/吨（+3.7）[1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率为35.6%（+2.8%），PE下游包装膜开工率为52.9%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.3%（+0.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.7%（+0.5%）[1] Market Analysis - **PE**: After the holiday, the inventory of major plastic producers has accumulated significantly. The downstream procurement is mainly for rigid demand, and the slow inventory digestion, weak cost support from crude oil, and new device production lead to the downward trend. In the future, supply is expected to increase with new device production and restart of shutdown devices, while demand improvement is limited [2] - **PP**: The weakening of the futures market is mainly due to the weakening of crude oil and propane prices. Supply is expected to increase with the restart of devices and new production, while demand fails to meet expectations during the peak season. The cost support is weak [3] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously short - hedge L and PP [4] - **Inter - period**: Reverse spread L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05 [4] - **Inter - variety**: Shrink the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price fluctuations of steel futures will increase due to the seasonal improvement in steel demand and the strong spot prices of raw materials like iron ore and coke, but the uncertainty of trade conflicts has sharply increased. The secondary rebound of steel prices in the future market will be more volatile. It is expected to trade with a relatively controllable shock logic on October 13th, and the decline caused by the realization of risks is unclear. There will be a restorative rebound near the end of the month. Attention should be paid to whether the Sino - US trade war will escalate again, the internal profit trend of the industrial chain after steel profits reach the break - even point again, and whether the iron ore supply gap worried by the market will appear in the spot market [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook - **Market Review** - On October 15th, the main contracts 2601 of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated and declined, hitting new lows since July 3rd and July 11th respectively in the afternoon. The prices of some rebar and hot - rolled coil in the spot market also fell. The daily KDJ indicators of rebar and hot - rolled coil 2601 contracts continued to decline, and the daily MACD green columns continued to expand [5][6][8]. - The table shows the price, trading volume, and position of steel futures main contracts on October 15th, as well as the position of black - series futures. For example, the closing price of RB2601 was 3034 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.85%, and the trading volume was 1,018,136 lots [5][7]. - **Future Outlook** - In terms of news, after China's counter - measures, the US authorities first threatened to impose 100% tariffs on China and then lowered the expectation and tone of the Sino - US trade conflict. There are also unconfirmed news about the procurement of imported iron ore from BHP. The follow - up rebound of iron ore futures depends on the result of the game between the two sides and the real recovery of steel terminal demand [9][10]. - Fundamentally, the weekly output of the five major steel products in the past six weeks has declined compared with late August but remains at a relatively high level. After the demand reached a new high since early June in the week of October 3rd, it significantly shrank last week due to the long holiday, and the social inventory of the five major steel products reached a new high since mid - April. In the raw material market, the iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills and the imported ore sinter powder inventory of 64 sample steel mills have significantly declined. The shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore has increased, and the arrival volume has also increased significantly. The profit per ton of coke has turned positive after three consecutive weeks of losses, and the first round of spot price increase of coke was implemented on October 1st [10][11]. 3.2 Industry News - Premier Li Qiang chaired an economic situation symposium, emphasizing the implementation of more proactive and effective macro - policies to promote economic recovery, and proposed measures such as expanding domestic demand and building a first - class industrial ecosystem [12]. - In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index (PPI) showed that the year - on - year decline narrowed, and some industries' prices showed positive changes. For example, the price decline of coal processing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries narrowed [13]. - According to statistics, in September 2025, the sales volume of various excavators increased by 25.4% year - on - year. From January to September, the total sales volume increased by 18.1% year - on - year [13]. - Hebei Province issued measures to support key industries' environmental performance to reach level A, and steel industry leading enterprises may not reduce crude steel production or reduce the reduction ratio [13]. - Shanxi Coking Coal Group and Hunan Iron and Steel Group held a symposium to strengthen cooperation in the "coal - steel - coke" industry chain [13]. - Some companies released production and sales data. For example, Lu'an Huaneng's coal production in September 2025 increased by 6.06% year - on - year, and Zhonglv Electric's power generation in the third quarter increased by 86.46% year - on - year [14]. - The first coal - to - natural - gas project in Northeast China achieved a breakthrough, and the first - phase project was fully connected [14]. - The freight volume of Tongjiang Railway Port exceeded 5 million tons 46 days earlier than last year, with significant increases in coal and iron ore imports [14]. - China's Ministry of Commerce responded to the US 301 investigation on China's shipbuilding industry, and relevant Chinese departments will launch investigations and include some enterprises in the counter - measure list [14]. - BHP will settle 30% of the amount in RMB in iron ore spot transactions with China starting from the fourth quarter of 2025, and will initiate long - term contract negotiations in RMB if the market acceptance of the Chinese RMB iron ore index reaches the standard [15]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised the forecast of global economic growth rate for this year to 3.2%, and maintained the forecast of China's economic growth rate at 4.8% this year [15]. 3.3 Data Overview - There are multiple data charts, including the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major markets, the weekly output and inventory of the five major steel products, the social inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major cities, the blast furnace and electric furnace start - up rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of the five major steel products, and the basis between Shanghai rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and January contracts. The data sources are mainly Mysteel and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [17][18][21][28][32][36].