中美贸易战
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国证国际港股晨报-20251015
Guosen International· 2025-10-15 05:36
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights an increase in demand for defensive asset allocation amid rising volatility risks in the market [2][5][6] - The Hong Kong stock market indices experienced significant declines, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 1.73%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down by 1.55%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropping by 3.62% [2][4] - The report notes a substantial trading volume in the market, with a total turnover of HKD 398.91 billion and a short-selling amount of HKD 63.17 billion, representing 17.49% of the total trading volume [2][4] Group 2 - The report discusses the impact of the U.S.-China trade war, indicating that recent developments have led to increased market volatility, particularly following the announcement of new tariffs by the U.S. [5][7] - The U.S. stock market experienced its most severe sell-off since April, with major indices plunging due to President Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, raising the total tariff rate to approximately 140% [7][8] - The report emphasizes that the trade war may enter a turbulent new phase, with both sides prepared for further escalation, which could complicate the process of reaching a trade agreement [8][9] Group 3 - The report highlights the performance of various sectors, noting that semiconductor stocks faced significant declines, with companies like Hua Hong Semiconductor and SMIC experiencing drops of 13.08% and 8.48% respectively [4] - Conversely, defensive sectors such as banking stocks saw gains, with China Merchants Bank rising by 4.7% and Chongqing Bank increasing by 3.58% amid market uncertainties [4][5] - The report also mentions the performance of gold as a safe-haven asset, which rose by 0.8% in response to market turmoil, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards safer investments [7][10]
聚烯烃日报:供需仍是宽松格局,聚烯烃延续弱势-20251015
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-15 05:17
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of polyolefins remain in a loose pattern, and the polyolefin market continues to be weak. For PE, post - holiday inventory accumulation, weakened cost support from falling crude oil, and new device production increases drive the price down. For PP, it is mainly dragged down by the weakening of crude oil and propane prices. The overall supply - demand situation is loose, and the cost support is weak [1][2][3]. - Suggested strategies include cautious short - selling hedging for both L and PP in the single - side trading; L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05 reverse spreads in the inter - period trading; and narrowing the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high in the inter - variety trading [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 6918 yuan/ton (-65), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 6602 yuan/ton (-91). The LL North China spot price is 6970 yuan/ton (-30), the LL East China spot price is 7000 yuan/ton (-80), and the PP East China spot price is 6640 yuan/ton (-30). The LL North China basis is 52 yuan/ton (+35), the LL East China basis is 82 yuan/ton (-15), and the PP East China basis is 38 yuan/ton (+61) [1]. 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate is 83.9% (+1.9%), and PP operating rate is 77.7% (+1.1%). PE oil - based production profit is 461.2 yuan/ton (-81.6), PP oil - based production profit is -188.8 yuan/ton (-81.6), and PDH - based PP production profit is 110.3 yuan/ton (+209.4) [1]. 3. Non - standard Price Difference of Polyolefins No specific data analysis provided in the given text. 4. Import and Export Profits of Polyolefins - LL import profit is -28.2 yuan/ton (-39.0), PP import profit is -524.0 yuan/ton (+23.8), and PP export profit is 19.9 US dollars/ton (+2.3) [1]. 5. Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits of Polyolefins - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 35.6% (+2.8%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 52.9% (+0.5%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 44.3% (+0.4%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.7% (+0.5%) [1]. 6. Polyolefin Inventory - For PE, post - holiday inventory of major plastic producers has accumulated significantly. For PP, there is an expectation of inventory digestion after the holiday, and traders are actively selling at discounted prices [2][3].
商品期货早班车-20251015
Zhao Shang Qi Huo· 2025-10-15 02:04
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, but the Fed's outlook is contradictory. The short - term prices of gold and silver are at historical highs, with potential for significant high - level fluctuations. For base metals, the market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, macro - policies, and trade frictions. In the black industry, the supply - demand relationship shows structural differentiation. The agricultural product market is influenced by factors like production, demand, and policies. The energy and chemical market is facing a situation where supply is increasing and demand is complex, with different trends for different products [1][2][5]. 3. Summary by Category Gold Market - **Market Performance**: International gold prices denominated in London Gold rose and then fell, closing at $4141 per ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Powell's speech was interpreted as opening the door for Fed rate cuts. Fed Governor Bowman expected two rate cuts by the end of the year. There was an inflow of funds into domestic gold ETFs. COMEX gold inventory decreased by 2 tons to 1233 tons, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory increased by 2.2 tons to 72.2 tons. London's September gold inventory increased by 39 tons to 8839 tons. The global largest gold ETF - SPDR's holdings increased by 3 tons to 1021 tons [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long gold positions and hold long silver positions cautiously due to potential high - level fluctuations [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices oscillated weakly [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Powell said the Fed would end balance - sheet reduction in the next few months. The supply of copper ore remained tight, and the spot premium of refined copper in East and South China varied [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for a new buying opportunity after sufficient consolidation [2]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract decreased by 0.12% to 20860 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum smelters maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate decreased slightly [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see, and pay attention to the progress of APEC on November 1st [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main alumina contract decreased by 0.53% to 2805 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Alumina plants maintained high - yield status, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see, and focus on the impact of the heating season production restrictions and alumina plant shutdowns [2][3]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc 2510 contract decreased by 0.02% to 22,200 yuan/ton. The domestic zinc inventory increased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure persisted, and the production in October was expected to increase to over 620,000 tons. Consumption did not exceed expectations [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short at high prices [3]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead 2509 contract decreased by 0.29% to 17,050 yuan/ton. The domestic lead inventory decreased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Recycled lead smelters resumed production after maintenance, and the consumer side showed resilience. The lithium - battery export control policy was expected to drive some consumption back to lead - acid batteries [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Trade within a range [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main contract price decreased by 3.24% to 8520 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The number of open furnaces increased, and production was expected to decrease in the southwest in late October. Social inventory increased slightly, and demand was supported by the high start - up rate of polysilicon [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, as the price is expected to oscillate between 8200 - 9300 yuan/ton [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2511 closed at 72,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.6% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, and demand from downstream products such as lithium - iron phosphate and ternary materials also increased. The market was expected to maintain a tight balance in October [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the Sino - US leadership negotiations. Consider short - selling the far - month contracts due to the expected oversupply next year [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main contract price increased by 2.56% to 49990 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased slightly, and demand from downstream products was stable. The photovoltaic installation in August decreased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Focus on the progress of the state - purchase platform and the 11 - 12 spread. Consider buying out - of - the - money put options for low - risk investors [4]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices oscillated weakly [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Short - term tin ore supply was tight, but there was an expectation of future supply loosening. Traditional demand was a drag, and global visible inventory continued to decrease [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a range - bound trading strategy in the short term [4]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main rebar contract 2601 closed at 3052 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Rebar demand was weak, and production was expected to decline due to low profits. Plate demand was stable [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short rebar positions, with the RB01 reference range of 3020 - 3090 yuan/ton [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main iron ore contract 2601 closed at 784 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Australian and Brazilian shipments decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. Iron ore supply and demand were marginally neutral to strong, and inventory accumulation was expected to be slower than the historical average [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, with the I01 reference range of 770 - 800 yuan/ton [5]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main coking coal contract 2601 closed at 1143.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.5 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Steel mill profits were stabilizing, and the first round of price increases was implemented. Supply - side inventories were differentiated, and the futures were at a premium [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, with the JM01 reference range of 1110 - 1170 yuan/ton [5]. Agricultural Product Market Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: Overnight CBOT soybeans fell slightly [6]. - **Fundamentals**: US soybeans had a slight production decrease, and South America was expected to increase production. US soybean demand was differentiated, with increased crushing but weak export demand due to tariff policies [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans were weak and range - bound. The domestic market was loose in the short term, with high mid - term uncertainty depending on the Sino - US tariff policy [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices rebounded slightly, while spot prices continued to fall [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Continuous rain in North China affected corn harvesting, increasing the risk of quality damage and storage difficulty. New - crop production was expected to increase, and costs decreased [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices were expected to oscillate downward due to the pressure of new - crop listing [6]. Edible Oils - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil prices fell in the short term [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Malaysian palm oil production decreased seasonally in September, and exports increased. The market continued to accumulate inventory in September with an expectation of future seasonal production decline [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: It was difficult to trade edible oils unilaterally, and the P contract was suitable for reverse spreads. Pay attention to production in the producing areas and biodiesel policies [6]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: Overnight US cotton futures prices oscillated downward, and international crude oil prices continued to weaken [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Brazil's 25/26 cotton production was expected to decrease by 1%. Zhengzhou cotton futures prices oscillated narrowly. China's textile and clothing exports from January to September decreased by 0.3% year - on - year [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, with a trading strategy in the range of 13200 - 13600 yuan/ton [6]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices rebounded slightly, and most spot prices remained stable [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Post - holiday demand weakened seasonally, while supply continued to increase. Egg inventory accumulated, and low vegetable prices dragged down egg prices [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices were expected to weaken [6]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices were weak, while spot prices rebounded slightly [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Post - holiday demand decreased significantly, and pig slaughter was expected to increase from October to November, increasing the supply - demand gap [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices were expected to weaken [7]. Energy and Chemical Market LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main LLDPE contract continued to decline slightly. The domestic spot price was 6900 yuan/ton, and the import window was closed [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased but at a slower pace, and demand improved seasonally in the agricultural film sector [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the market was expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, as new plants were put into operation, the supply - demand pattern would loosen. Consider short - selling at high prices or reverse spreads [8]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V01 contract closed at 4963, a decrease of 0.6% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased with new plant production. Demand was weak due to low downstream start - up rates and negative real - estate indicators. Social inventory reached a new high [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell or use reverse spreads due to the weak supply - demand balance [8]. PTA - **Market Performance**: The CFR China price of PX was $791 per ton, and the PTA spot price in East China was 4440 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamentals**: PX supply was high, and PTA supply pressure was relieved in the short term but large in the long term. Polyester factory load was high, and terminal orders improved structurally [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: PX prices were expected to oscillate weakly, and short - sell the processing fee of PTA's far - month contracts [8]. Rubber - **Market Performance**: The RU2601 contract closed at 14845 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.97% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Thai raw material prices weakened, and rubber inventories in Qingdao changed. Spot prices were stable to weak [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions cautiously or wait and see due to the lack of short - term positive factors [9]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG01 contract closed at 1139, a decrease of 3.4% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Glass supply was high, and inventory accumulated. Downstream demand was weak due to negative real - estate indicators [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see due to the weak supply - demand balance [9]. PP - **Market Performance**: The main PP contract continued to decline slightly. The domestic spot price was 6550 yuan/ton, the import window was closed, and the export window was open [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, and demand improved seasonally during the "Golden September and Silver October" [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the market was expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, as new plants were put into operation, the supply - demand pattern would loosen. Consider short - selling at high prices or reverse spreads [9]. MEG - **Market Performance**: The MEG spot price in East China was 4171 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 69 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure was high after new plant production. Import supply was expected to increase. Polyester factory load was high, and terminal orders improved structurally [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see in the short term due to low inventory and macro - volatility. Short - sell at high prices in the long term due to inventory accumulation pressure [9]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices fell again due to Sino - US trade uncertainties and weak fundamentals [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure increased as multiple countries planned to increase production, while demand decreased seasonally and was affected by trade frictions [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short SC positions [10]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The main EB contract continued to decline slightly. The domestic spot price was 6650 yuan/ton, and the import window was closed [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories were at normal to high levels, and downstream demand was weak despite the seasonal peak [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the market was expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, as supply increased, the supply - demand pattern would loosen. Consider short - selling at high prices or reverse spreads [10]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA01 contract closed at 1234, a decrease of 0.7% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Soda ash supply was high, and inventory accumulated during the National Day. Downstream demand from photovoltaic glass was stable but with high inventory [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see due to the supply - demand balance [10]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: The SH01 contract closed at 2429, a decrease of 1% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Caustic soda spot prices stopped falling, and futures prices continued to decline. Inventory accumulated, and non - aluminum demand recovery was less than expected [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see due to the supply - demand balance [10].
美方等了3天,中方拒绝通话,特朗普措辞变了:美国不想伤害中国
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-14 19:56
就在10月10日,美国总统特朗普还信誓旦旦地宣布,要从11月1日起对中国商品加征100%关税,摆出一副要硬刚到底的架势。 可谁能想到,这话说出来还 不到72小时,他就自己在社交媒体上改口了,连声说"美国不想伤害中国",还想"帮助中国"。 这种180度大转弯,让全世界都看傻了眼。 更关键的是,中方这次直接不接美方的电话,用沉默表明了态度。 特朗普在10月10日那天高调宣布了他的新关税计划。 他这次没有像往常那样直接签总统令,而是把加税时间定在了11月1日,中间留了将近20天的空档。 明 眼人都能看出来,这是给双方谈判留余地。 特朗普当时还放狠话,要求中国在稀土出口等问题上让步,否则美国就要动手。 他的团队原本估计中方会像过去那样很快过来谈判,然后美国再找个台阶 下,宣布取消关税。 才过了不到三天,也就是10月12日,特朗普就在自己的社交账号上发了一段完全不同的内容。 他安慰美国民众"别担心中国",还说一切都会好起来。 更让 人吃惊的是,他居然表示"美国不想伤害中国",甚至说要"帮助中国"。 这种软话从一贯强硬的特朗普嘴里说出来,立即引起了广泛讨论。 不少美国媒体直接批评特朗普这是"露怯了",因为以往他就算最后让 ...
美国财长表态中国,愿意取消100%加税,但是稀土限制必须撤销
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-14 17:58
美国财政部长贝森特在福克斯商业频道的那番话让我有点意外,不是因为他说了什么,而是因为这话出现的时间点太微妙了。就在几天前,他的老板特朗普 才在10月10日放话,要从11月1日开始对中国产品加征额外100%的关税。结果很快,口风就软了。贝森特说,"对华商品加征100%关税不一定要发生",条 件是中国得取消稀土出口限制。 这已经不是一般的态度转变,而是一次急刹车 。你要知道,美国对稀土的依赖,是它自己都心虚的事。这不仅是有色金属的问题,这是整个高科技和军工产业链的命门。 有意思的是,特朗普在威胁加税后的两天里,社交媒体上的语气也变了。他甚至把中国加强稀土管制说成是中方"心情不好"。你细品,这句没什么建设性的 评论,反而透出一点不得不安抚市场的意味。 贝森特随后出现在国际货币基金组织2025年年会上,更明确地释放出信号,美国希望和中国保持密切沟通,美中双边峰会会继续如期举行。表面看是在求 稳,但结合近期中国的动作,你就会明白,这其实是因为美国心里清楚它的稀土软肋被掐住了。 稀土这个词,很多人觉得很遥远,其实离我们每天用的东西都很近。它包含17种特殊元素,是从国防武器到手机芯片、电动汽车马达都离不开的材料。美国 的导 ...
中美怎么和解?特朗普只提了1个条件,俄专家:美国又低看中国
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-14 16:48
Group 1 - The trade deficit between the US and China is significantly lower than the figures claimed by Trump, with the actual deficit for 2024 estimated at around $295 billion, contrasting sharply with Trump's assertion of over $1 trillion [1][5] - Trump's approach to trade involves imposing tariffs on imports, particularly targeting countries with large trade deficits, which has led to increased tensions and retaliatory measures from China [3][12] - The first phase of the trade agreement between the US and China saw a low execution rate of only 58%, indicating a lack of commitment from both sides to make substantial concessions [5][10] Group 2 - The ongoing trade war has resulted in significant economic consequences for both the US and China, with estimates suggesting that Trump's tariff strategy could lead to a 1.3% decline in US GDP, costing American households an additional $1,300 annually [10][12] - China's response to the trade conflict has included a push for self-sufficiency in critical sectors such as semiconductors and renewable energy, reflecting a strategic shift towards domestic production [10][12] - The trade dynamics have also affected global relationships, with Russia noting that the US underestimates China's role in the global market and its ability to maintain trade partnerships, particularly with Russia [7][14]
中国稀土“王炸”级反制后,特朗普对华征100%关税,看来真的很疼
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-14 14:13
中美贸易争端再次急剧升级。在中国祭出稀土出口管制这一"王炸"反制措施后,美国总统特朗普立即宣布将从11月1日起对中国产品加征100%关税,并 对"所有关键软件"实施出口管制。这一系列"针锋相对"的举动,特别是特朗普的剧烈反应,侧面印证了中国的反制措施确实击中了美国的"痛点"。 特朗普祭出"底牌":关税与市场。 中国反制措施:稀土与港务费双管齐下。 中国商务部在周四(也就是10月9号)那天,一口气发布了六份公告,说要对包括五种中重稀土产品,还有稀土相关的技术、设备以及原材料这些境外物品 加强出口管控,管控的范围和力度都比以前大多了。稀土这东西啊,被大家叫做"工业的维生素",是中国在高科技领域里能卡住全球供应链关键位置的王 牌。有分析说,北京这么做是为了反击美国和它那些盟友对中国高科技产业的打压,给接下来的中美经贸谈判多争取点有利条件。 紧接着,到了周五也就是10月10号这天,中国交通运输部发布了一个公告,说从下周二开始,要对停靠在中国港口的美国船只收取一种特别的港务费,这个 费用是按照每净吨400元来算的,而且还会逐年增加。这么做呢,是为了回应美国之前对中国船只加收港口服务费这种带有"歧视性"的行为。 虽然中美 ...
怪不得川普这么愤怒,原来我国拒绝美国通话请求,法媒:中国强势
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-14 11:59
Group 1 - The trade conflict between China and the U.S. is escalating, with both sides unwilling to make concessions, reminiscent of the trade war initiated by Trump in 2018 [2][3] - China's recent announcement to strengthen export licensing for rare earth minerals and processing equipment is a strategic move, as China holds 90% of the global processing capacity for these materials [2][5] - The U.S. response includes threats of imposing 100% additional tariffs on all imports from China, indicating a potential for further escalation in trade tensions [3][7] Group 2 - Rare earth elements are critical for modern industries, and China's dominance in this sector poses a significant challenge for the U.S., which has struggled to increase its domestic production [5][7] - The new regulations from China not only cover rare earth minerals but also include restrictions on five types of heavy rare earth elements, aiming to prevent technology leakage [5][8] - The impact of China's export controls is felt globally, as countries like the EU and Japan also rely heavily on Chinese rare earths, which could disrupt supply chains for major companies [7][8] Group 3 - The U.S. is facing internal pressures as companies like Boeing and General Electric express concerns over potential supply chain disruptions due to China's actions [7] - French media reports highlight that China's regulatory changes are not just aimed at the U.S. but have global implications, requiring licenses for products containing Chinese rare earths [8] - The situation reflects a broader need for Western countries to reassess the costs of decoupling from China, particularly in critical supply chains [8]
今年5月以来商务部已四次表态:打,奉陪到底;谈,大门敞开
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-14 09:33
第三次和第四次都是10月14日。近期,美威胁对华加征100%关税等限制措施,中方表示:关于关税 战、贸易战,中方立场是一贯的。打,奉陪到底;谈,大门敞开。中美拥有广泛的共同利益和广阔的合 作空间,双方合则两利,斗则俱伤。 商务部新闻发言人就美对华造船等行业301调查限制措施落地答记者问时提到:中方在相关问题上的立 场是明确的、一贯的,打,奉陪到底;谈,大门敞开。中方敦促美方纠正错误做法,与中方相向而行, 通过平等对话协商方式解决双方关切的问题。 (责任编辑:宋政 HN002) 格隆汇10月14日|据玉渊谭天,10月14日,商务部连发多条消息,不少网友都关注到了其中一句表述: 打,奉陪到底;谈,大门敞开。网友们提到,此前,中方多是"谈"在"打"前边的表述。谭主对今年商务 部发言人的回应进行梳理后发现,围绕"打与谈"这一原则立场的顺序,今年5月以来,商务部已四次表 态——打,奉陪到底;谈,大门敞开。 第一次是5月2日。在中方宣布对原产于美国的所有进口商品的加征关税税率由34%提高至84%后,美方 通过相关方面多次主动向中方传递信息,希望与中方谈起来。对此,中方表示:中方立场始终如一, 打,奉陪到底;谈,大门敞开。 ...
越秀证券每日晨报-20251014
越秀证券· 2025-10-14 08:39
Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,889, down 1.52% for the day but up 29.06% year-to-date [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell 1.83% to 6,145, with a year-to-date increase of 37.54% [1] - The CSI 300 Index decreased by 0.49% to 4,593, with a year-to-date rise of 16.75% [1] - The S&P 500 Index rose 1.56% to 6,654, recovering some losses from the previous week [7] Currency and Commodity Trends - The Renminbi Index is at 97.320, showing a 0.57% increase over the last month but a 1.47% decrease over six months [2] - Brent crude oil prices are at $63.75 per barrel, down 4.15% over the past month but up 2.05% over six months [2] - Gold prices increased by 10.78% in the last month, reaching $4,075.89 per ounce, and have risen 26.93% over six months [2] Company-Specific Developments - Xiaomi's SU7 electric vehicle caught fire after a collision, raising safety concerns regarding electronic door handles [15] - Ant Group's acquisition of Yao Cai Securities has been approved by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission, pending further approval from the National Development and Reform Commission [16] - Country Garden's major shareholder has provided additional support for a proposed restructuring, involving a commitment to subscribe for capitalized shares to offset shareholder loans of approximately $1.14 billion [17] Economic Indicators - China's exports in September increased by 8.3% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of 6.6% [12] - The trade surplus for September was reported at $90.45 billion, slightly below the expected $98.05 billion [12] - The current business sentiment index for small and medium enterprises in Hong Kong rose to 43.8, indicating improved business conditions [13] IPO and Market Activity - Recent IPOs have shown strong performance, with companies like Zijing Gold International and Xi Puni achieving significant first-day gains [25] - Upcoming IPOs include Xuan Bamboo Biotechnology and Yunji Technology, with expected listing dates in mid-October [25] Sector Performance - The semiconductor and gold sectors showed resilience, with stocks like Hua Hong Semiconductor and Zijin Mining rising [6] - Conversely, sectors such as mobile devices, gaming, and pharmaceuticals faced declines, with notable drops in stocks like Xiaomi and Wuxi AppTec [6] Future Outlook - Despite ongoing uncertainties in the external environment, the robust local economy in Hong Kong and continued growth in mainland China are expected to support local business sentiment [14]