Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core Viewpoints - In the short - to - medium term, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand persists, pressuring egg prices to decline, with prices in some regions dropping to feed costs. Attention should be paid to the intensity and scale of hen culling driven by low prices [3]. - In the long term, the continuous increase in egg - laying hen farming scale may lengthen the price bottom cycle. Wait patiently for the over - culling in the farming sector to drive the capacity - reduction process [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market News - During the holiday, egg prices fell unexpectedly, and the futures market opened with a significant gap down [1]. Spot Performance - During the holiday, the strong supply and weak demand in the egg market pressured egg prices to drop significantly. On October 8, the price of Hebei Guantao pink eggs was 2.49 yuan per jin, a decrease of 0.35 yuan per jin compared to September 30 [3]. Futures Performance - Today, the near - month contract of egg futures opened with a significant gap down. The 2511 contract opened at 2890 yuan per 500 kg, a decline of 4.24%. As of the time of writing, the market was at 2902 yuan per 500 kg, while the far - month contracts were relatively stable [3]. Analysis Logic - Short - to - medium term: The pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues, and egg prices are under pressure to decline, with some areas reaching feed costs. Focus on the intensity and scale of hen culling driven by low prices [3]. - Long term: The continuous increase in egg - laying hen farming scale may lengthen the price bottom cycle. Wait for the over - culling in the farming sector to drive capacity reduction [3]. Trading Strategy - Before the holiday, it was continuously suggested to maintain a short - selling strategy until large - scale concentrated hen culling occurs, and it was recommended to hold previous short positions. - Currently, the Hebei spot price has fallen below 2.5 yuan per jin. It was suggested in today's morning report that the market might open with a gap down, and previous short positions can continue to be held. It is recommended to consider gradually taking profits on dips [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report analyzes the supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate and related lithium compounds. The overall supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate shows a state of capacity mismatch, resulting in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 71,740 - 73,860 yuan/ton for the 2511 contract. The main logic is that the supply of lithium carbonate is relatively high, while the demand growth is not strong enough, and the cost structure of different production methods also affects the production enthusiasm of enterprises [8][9][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - Supply: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 20,516 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.75%, higher than the historical average. It is predicted that the production in September 2025 will be 86,730 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.75%. The import volume in August 2025 was 21,847 tons, and it is predicted that the import volume in September will be 19,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.74% [8][9]. - Demand: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 98,286 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.15%, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,896 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.00%. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [8]. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 75,407 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.03%, with a production loss of 2,927 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica is 78,268 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.58%, with a production loss of 7,776 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is average. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - Other Factors: The fundamentals are neutral; on September 30, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,550 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 750 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish; the smelter inventory was 33,492 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.79%, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 60,893 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.35%, higher than the historical average; the overall inventory was 136,825 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.51%, higher than the historical average, which is neutral; the main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [9]. 3.2 Lithium Ore Supply - Price: The price of 6% lithium spodumene is 858 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous value, with a change rate of 0.00%. The price of lithium mica concentrate (2% - 2.5%) is 1,855 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan from the previous value, with a decline rate of 1.07% [15]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The domestic lithium ore supply - demand balance shows different situations in different months. In general, the demand is relatively large, and the production and import volume together meet the demand, but there are still some months with a supply - demand gap [27]. 3.3 Lithium Carbonate Supply - Production: The production of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling) shows different trends. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene was 356,750 tons in a certain period, a month - on - month increase of 12.75% [18]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate also varies by month. In some months, there is a surplus, while in others, there is a shortage. For example, in August 2025, the supply - demand balance was 2,695 tons, indicating a surplus [35]. 3.4 Lithium Hydroxide Supply - Production and Export: The production and export volume of lithium hydroxide have changed over time. The export volume in different months shows an upward or downward trend, and the production also fluctuates. For example, the production in August 2025 was 21,820 tons [38][40]. - Supply - Demand Balance: Similar to lithium carbonate, the supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide also shows different situations in different months, with some months having a surplus and others having a shortage [40]. 3.5 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - Different Production Methods: The cost - profit situations of different lithium compound production methods (such as purchased lithium spodumene, purchased lithium mica, recycling) are different. Some production methods are in a loss state, while others have certain profit margins. For example, the production from purchased lithium spodumene has a loss of 2,927 yuan/ton [9][43]. - Purification and Transformation: The profit situations of industrial - grade lithium carbonate purification and lithium hydroxide carbonation to lithium carbonate also change over time, which is affected by factors such as raw material prices and product prices [45][48]. 3.6 Inventory - Lithium Carbonate Inventory: The lithium carbonate inventory includes smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and other inventories. The smelter inventory was 33,492 tons last week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.79%, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 60,893 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.35%, higher than the historical average; the overall inventory was 136,825 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.51%, higher than the historical average [9]. - Lithium Hydroxide Inventory: The inventory of lithium hydroxide also shows different trends in different periods, which is affected by production and demand [50]. 3.7 Demand - Lithium Battery: The production, sales, and export of lithium batteries show different trends. For example, the monthly production of power batteries in a certain period was 62,500 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 11.81% [18][54]. - New Energy Vehicles: The production, sales, and export of new energy vehicles also change over time. The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles has shown an upward trend in recent years [78][79]. - Ternary Precursor and Ternary Material: The price, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors and ternary materials are also analyzed in the report. The production of ternary precursors in a certain period was 76,159 tons, and the supply - demand balance also shows different situations in different months [59][62]. - Lithium Iron Phosphate: The price, production, and cost - profit of lithium iron phosphate and related products are also analyzed in the report. The production of lithium iron phosphate in a certain period shows an upward trend [70][73].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is shifting towards demand - led. The price of lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 72,820 - 75,020. The main logic is that capacity mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [9][13]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors are the persistently high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and the insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply side: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 20,516 tons, a 0.75% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In August 2025, the production was 85,240 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 86,730 tons, a 1.75% month - on - month increase. The import volume in August 2025 was 21,847 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 19,500 tons, a 10.74% month - on - month decrease [8][9]. - Demand side: Last week, the inventory of sample lithium iron phosphate enterprises was 98,286 tons, a 2.15% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of sample ternary material enterprises was 17,896 tons, a 2.00% week - on - week increase. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - Cost side: The CIF price of 6% concentrate increased on a daily basis, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate is 75,433 yuan/ton, a 0.02% daily increase, with a production loss of 2,953 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lithium mica is 78,729 yuan/ton, unchanged on a daily basis, with a production loss of 8,238 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that at the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9][10]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Prices**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as spodumene, lithium mica concentrate, lithium iron phosphate, and lithium hexafluorophosphate showed different degrees of changes. For example, the price of spodumene (6%) increased by 0.12% to 858 US dollars/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.07% to 73,550 yuan/ton [14]. - **Supply - side Data**: The monthly production, import volume, and开工率 of lithium carbonate, lithium ore, and lithium hydroxide showed different trends. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate in August 2025 was 85,240 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 86,730 tons; the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate in August 2025 was 21,847 tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 19,500 tons [9][19]. - **Demand - side Data**: The demand for lithium - related products in the fields of lithium batteries, new energy vehicles, etc. showed an upward trend. For example, the monthly total loading volume of power batteries in August 2025 was 62,500 GWh, a 11.81% increase from the previous month; the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles also increased [19]. - **Inventory Data**: The overall inventory of lithium carbonate decreased slightly, with a 0.51% week - on - week decrease to 136,825 tons. The inventory of smelters decreased by 2.79% to 33,492 tons, while the downstream inventory increased by 2.35% to 60,893 tons [10].

Group 1: Report on Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The steel price of finished products is expected to run weakly with fluctuations [3]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Contents Production Status - Last week, the scale of maintenance of construction steel mills significantly decreased and the scale of resumption of production increased. There were 5 maintenance production lines, 12 less than the previous week, and 8 resumption production lines, 6 more than the previous week. The production affected by production line maintenance was 257,800 tons last week, and it is expected to be 189,600 tons this week [2]. - The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.18%, a week - on - week increase of 4.39 percentage points. The steel mill profitability rate was 60.17%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 percentage points. The daily average hot metal output was 2.4055 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 117,100 tons [2]. - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 55.26%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.48 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 18.52 percentage points [2]. Price and Market Situation - The price of Tangshan Qian'an common billet was stable at 3,010 yuan/ton last weekend [2]. - Finished products fluctuated and declined last week, with a rebound during Friday's trading session, but the whole week was mainly characterized by downward fluctuations to a recent low. After the military parade, the previously shut - down production capacity gradually recovered, and the hot metal output increased rapidly last week. The demand side changed little, showing a characteristic of strong supply and weak demand, which is expected to continue in the short term [2]. Later Concerns - Macro policies, supply - side production reduction situation, and downstream demand situation should be focused on [3]

Core Viewpoint - The pig market shows signs of stabilization after a period of continuous decline, with a slight increase in prices observed on September 12, 2025 [1] Price Monitoring - On September 12, the average price of pigs nationwide was 13.72 yuan per kilogram, which is an increase of 0.01 yuan per kilogram compared to the previous day [1] - The price trend indicates a mix of 4 regions experiencing price increases, 7 regions seeing declines, and 20 regions remaining stable, reflecting a downward trend overall [1] Market Analysis - The market is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, with a notable increase in the sentiment of sellers holding back on sales [1] - The upcoming double holiday is expected to trigger some stocking up in demand, but the impact on prices is anticipated to be limited [1] Price Differential - The average price differential for the external three yuan pig price across 21 major regions was approximately 0.49 yuan per kilogram, which is an increase of 0.03 yuan per kilogram from the previous day [1] - This price differential remains below the average transportation cost of 0.56 yuan per kilogram, indicating ongoing supply chain pressures [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market is currently in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventory levels. The overall industry pattern is deteriorating, facing double pressure from significant capacity growth and continuous decline in real - estate demand. In the short term, there are opportunities for short - selling on rallies, but it is necessary to guard against the return of anti - internal competition sentiment. In the medium term, without policies to clear out outdated production capacity, the supply - demand pattern will remain weak, and the industry may need to reduce valuations to clear out excess capacity [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: Wuhai calcium carbide price is 2300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton month - on - month; Shandong calcium carbide price is 2730 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton month - on - month; Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke is 660 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton month - on - month. Chlor - alkali integrated profit remains high, while ethylene - based profit declines, and overall valuation support is weak [11]. - **Supply**: PVC capacity utilization rate is 77.1%, up 0.3% month - on - month. Among them, calcium carbide method is 76.7%, up 0.7% month - on - month; ethylene method is 78.1%, down 0.9% month - on - month. Last month, maintenance volume decreased, and new device production was released, increasing supply pressure. This month, maintenance is expected to further decrease, and there are new device commissioning plans, so supply pressure will still be large [11]. - **Demand**: In July, exports to India rebounded due to the extension of BIS certification and anti - dumping. However, the final anti - dumping tax rate for India has been announced and is expected to be implemented in about a month, which will likely lead to a decline in exports. The overall downstream load is 43.5%, up 1.5% month - on - month, but still lower than the same period last year, and overall demand is weak. The key for the demand side is whether exports can exceed expectations [11]. - **Inventory**: At the end of the month, factory inventory is 31.6 tons, with a month - on - month de - stocking of 3 tons; social inventory is 91.8 tons, with a month - on - month inventory build - up of 19.6 tons; overall inventory is 123.4 tons, with a month - on - month inventory build - up of 16.6 tons; warehouse receipts continue to increase. Currently in the inventory build - up cycle, if exports do not exceed expectations, inventory build - up will continue [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market The document mainly presents multiple charts related to the PVC futures and spot market, including PVC term structure, spot basis, 1 - 5 spread, active contract positions, trading volume, total positions, and total trading volume, but no specific text analysis is provided [15][16][23]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Inventory**: Overall inventory has significantly increased. Factory inventory and social inventory trends are shown through charts, and the overall inventory is in a build - up state [31][37]. - **Profit**: Chlor - alkali integrated profit in Shandong using purchased calcium carbide, calcium carbide - based PVC profit, ethylene - based PVC profit, and Inner Mongolia calcium carbide profit trends are presented through charts, showing that the comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a high level this year, with relatively large valuation pressure [41]. 3.4 Cost Side Calcium carbide prices are fluctuating and rising, and inventory is increasing. The document also presents price trends of raw materials such as Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke, 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong, liquid chlorine in Shandong, Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot price, etc., but no specific text analysis is provided [47][48][50]. 3.5 Supply Side - In 2025, the capacity release of PVC is relatively large, mainly concentrated in the third quarter. A total of 250 tons of new capacity is expected to be put into production, including multiple projects using calcium carbide method and ethylene method [58][65]. - In August, PVC maintenance was relatively less, and the operating rate in September is expected to remain high. The operating rates of calcium carbide method, ethylene method, and overall PVC are presented through charts [66]. 3.6 Demand Side - The operating rates of downstream industries such as PVC pipes, films, and profiles are presented through charts, showing that the overall downstream operating rate has slightly rebounded but is still lower than the same period last year, and overall demand is weak [75]. - PVC export volume, export volume to India, pre - sales volume, and the relationship between China's housing completion area and new construction area are presented through charts. The key for the demand side is whether exports can exceed expectations. After the implementation of India's anti - dumping tax rate, export expectations are expected to weaken [77][80][82].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply - last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,138 tons, a 4.21% week - on - week decrease but higher than the historical average. In July 2025, production was 81,530 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 84,200 tons, a 3.27% increase. July's import volume was 13,845 tons, and next month's predicted import is 18,500 tons, a 33.62% increase [8][9]. - Demand - last week, the inventory of sample lithium iron phosphate enterprises was 93,640 tons, a 1.51% week - on - week decrease, and the inventory of sample ternary material enterprises was 17,617 tons, a 1.86% week - on - week increase. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may decline [8]. - Cost - the daily CIF price of 6% concentrate is flat week - on - week, lower than the historical average, and the demand - led situation has weakened. Lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate between 77,200 - 80,520 [9]. - Overall situation - due to capacity mismatch, supply is stronger than demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply: last week's production decreased week - on - week but was higher than the historical average. July's production and import volume are predicted to increase next month. - Demand: last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate enterprises decreased, while that of ternary material enterprises increased. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may decline. - Cost: the daily CIF price of 6% concentrate is flat week - on - week, lower than the historical average. - Expected range: lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate between 77,200 - 80,520 [8][9]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Data**: - Lithium ore prices: the price of 6% lithium spodumene is $920/ton, flat week - on - week; the price of 2% - 2.5% lithium mica concentrate is 1,970 yuan/ton, flat week - on - week. - Lithium salt prices: the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 81,600 yuan/ton, a 0.12% week - on - week decrease; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 79,300 yuan/ton, a 0.13% week - on - week decrease. - Other prices: the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 56,400 yuan/ton, a 1.08% week - on - week increase [14]. - **Supply - Side Data**: - Lithium ore: the monthly production of lithium ore is expected to increase, and the import volume is also expected to increase significantly. - Lithium carbonate: the weekly production of lithium carbonate decreased week - on - week, and the monthly production is expected to increase. The import volume decreased month - on - month. - Lithium hydroxide: the weekly production of lithium hydroxide decreased week - on - week, and the monthly production is expected to increase. The export volume increased month - on - month [19]. - **Demand - Side Data**: - Lithium battery: the monthly output of lithium batteries increased month - on - month, and the demand for lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide is expected to increase. - New energy vehicles: the monthly production and sales of new energy vehicles decreased month - on - month, and the penetration rate increased [20]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price: the price of lithium ore has fluctuated in recent years, and the current price is at a relatively low level. - Production: the production of domestic lithium spodumene mines and lithium mica has increased year - on - year. - Import: the import volume of lithium ore has increased year - on - year, mainly from Australia. - Supply - demand balance: the domestic lithium ore supply - demand balance has been in a state of shortage in recent years [26]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Production: the weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate has increased year - on - year, mainly from lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and recycled materials. - Import: the import volume of lithium carbonate has decreased month - on - month, mainly from Chile. - Supply - demand balance: the domestic lithium carbonate supply - demand balance has been in a state of surplus in recent months [32]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Production: the weekly and monthly production of lithium hydroxide has increased year - on - year, mainly from smelting and causticizing. - Export: the export volume of lithium hydroxide has increased year - on - year, mainly to overseas markets. - Supply - demand balance: the domestic lithium hydroxide supply - demand balance has been in a state of surplus in recent months [41]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - Lithium spodumene: the production cost of lithium spodumene has decreased week - on - week, and the production profit has increased. - Lithium mica: the production cost of lithium mica is flat week - on - week, and the production profit has decreased. - Lithium carbonate import: the import profit of lithium carbonate has decreased week - on - week. - Other aspects: the cost and profit of other lithium compounds, such as lithium hydroxide and recycled lithium carbonate, also show different trends [46]. 3.7 Inventory - Lithium carbonate: the total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased week - on - week, with the inventory of smelters decreasing and the inventory of downstream enterprises increasing. - Lithium hydroxide: the inventory of lithium hydroxide decreased week - on - week [54]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Price: the price of lithium batteries has fluctuated in recent years, and the current price is at a relatively low level. - Output: the monthly output of lithium batteries has increased year - on - year, mainly for power batteries and energy - storage batteries. - Demand: the demand for lithium batteries is expected to increase in the future, driven by the development of new energy vehicles and energy - storage industries [58]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price: the price of ternary precursors has fluctuated in recent years, and the current price is at a relatively low level. - Cost and profit: the production cost of ternary precursors has decreased week - on - week, and the production profit has increased. - Supply - demand balance: the domestic ternary precursor supply - demand balance has been in a state of surplus in recent months [63]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - Price: the price of ternary materials has fluctuated in recent years, and the current price is at a relatively low level. - Cost and profit: the production cost of ternary materials has decreased week - on - week, and the production profit has increased. - Supply - demand balance: the domestic ternary material supply - demand balance has been in a state of surplus in recent months [69]. 3.11 Demand - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium - Price: the price of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium has fluctuated in recent years, and the current price is at a relatively low level. - Cost and profit: the production cost of phosphoric acid iron has decreased week - on - week, and the production profit has increased. The production cost of phosphoric acid iron lithium is flat week - on - week, and the production profit has decreased. - Supply - demand balance: the domestic phosphoric acid iron/phosphoric acid iron lithium supply - demand balance has been in a state of surplus in recent months [73]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production and sales: the monthly production and sales of new energy vehicles decreased month - on - month, and the penetration rate increased. - Retail - wholesale ratio: the retail - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric new energy vehicles has increased year - on - year. - Inventory: the inventory warning index and inventory index of dealers have increased year - on - year [80].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The egg market is in a "peak season with weak performance" situation, facing a prominent contradiction of "strong supply and weak demand." The egg price has reached a low level in recent years, and the futures market has been declining to correct the premium. The start of back - to - school stocking this week is expected to be an important variable to stabilize the market [6][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review (1) Futures Price - Last week, the egg futures market broke through the lower limit. The main 2510 contract hit a record low. As of the close on Friday, the JD2510 contract was reported at 3033 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 0.07%, with a trading volume of 526,351 lots and an open interest of 434,281 lots [4][13]. (2) Spot Price - The average price of eggs in the main producing areas last week was 3.19 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 5.63%, but still at a low level in the same period of history. The market showed a pattern of "weak reality," with the core contradiction of "loose supply and weak demand" remaining unresolved. The start of back - to - school stocking this week is expected to relieve the current supply - demand pressure [17]. (3) Chicken Chick Price - Last week, the average price of commercial chicken chicks in key national regions was 2.99 yuan per chick, a month - on - month decrease of 2.29% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.57%. The current utilization rate of hatching eggs is about 50%. Since February, the industry has been in deep losses, which has severely dampened the confidence of the breeding side, and the willingness to replenish chicks is poor [21]. (4) Old Hen Price - Last week, the average price of old hens in the representative market was 5.22 yuan per catty, a month - on - month decrease of 6.62%. The price decline continued. Due to the pessimistic expectation of the future market, most farmers chose to cull old hens, while some farmers had a wait - and - see attitude [25]. 2. Fundamental Analysis (1) Supply Side - **In - laying Hen Inventory**: In July, the national in - laying hen inventory was about 1.292 billion. It is expected that the number of newly - laid hens in August will be greater than the number of old hen slaughter, and the in - laying hen inventory will continue to increase, increasing the production capacity pressure [30]. - **Shipping Volume in Producing Areas**: The average daily shipping volume in the main producing areas was 6,066.71 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.56% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.94%. The logistics efficiency in the egg - producing areas decreased this week, and the egg price rose and then fell. The market bearish sentiment spread, and the inflow of cold - stored eggs into the market affected the fresh egg sales [35]. - **Old Hen Slaughter**: The total slaughter volume of old hens in the sample points last week was 513,100, a month - on - month increase of 6.63%. The average slaughter age was 502 days, unchanged from the previous month. The increase in slaughter volume was due to the continuous losses of farmers and the weakening of confidence in the peak season [40]. (2) Demand Side - **Arrival Volume in Selling Areas**: The arrival volume in the main selling areas rebounded slightly last week, but the increase in arrival volume did not effectively translate into consumption power, and the market remained weak [45]. - **Old Hen Slaughter Volume**: According to statistics, the total slaughter volume of old hens in 22 designated slaughter enterprises last week was 3.4307 million, a month - on - month increase of 44.26%. The increase in slaughter volume was due to the continuous low egg price, which severely dampened the breeding confidence, and farmers' culling willingness increased significantly [48]. (3) Inventory - As of last Friday, the national production - link inventory was 0.87 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.13 days. The egg inventory increased month - on - month, mainly due to the increase in supply from newly - laid hens and the weak terminal demand [52]. (4) Laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit - Last week, the laying hen breeding cost was 3.55 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.28%. The breeding profit was - 0.34 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 35.85%. The price of corn and soybean meal showed different trends last week [56]. 3. Market Outlook - In August, the laying hen inventory continued to increase month - on - month, and the egg price reached a low level in recent years. The futures market continued to decline to correct the premium. Although it has entered the seasonal peak season, the terminal demand boost is far lower than expected, showing a prominent "peak season with weak performance" feature. The start of back - to - school stocking this week is expected to be an important variable to stabilize the market [57]. 4. Operation Strategy - **Single - side**: Adopt a bearish strategy when the price is high. - **Arbitrage**: Gradually take profit on previous arbitrage orders. - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [8][58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate last week showed an increase, with production reaching 19,980 tons, a 2.16% week - on - week growth and higher than the historical average. Demand - side inventory of sample enterprises also increased, with the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises rising by 0.51% to 95,081 tons and that of ternary material sample enterprises increasing by 4.45% to 17,296 tons. [8] - In terms of cost, the cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate was 82,375 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.04%, resulting in a profit of 2,126 yuan/ton. The cost of purchasing lepidolite was 86,253 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged, leading to a loss of 3,890 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end was close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end was 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation. [9] - The overall assessment of the fundamentals is neutral. The basis on August 19th showed that the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 85,700 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 1,840 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The overall inventory situation was complex, with the smelter inventory decreasing by 2.56% to 49,693 tons, lower than the historical average, while the downstream and other inventories increased, and the overall inventory decreased slightly by 0.11% to 142,256 tons, higher than the historical average, which is neutral. The disk showed that MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above MA20, which is bullish. The net short position of the main contract decreased, which is bearish. [9] - In terms of expectations, in July 2025, the production of lithium carbonate was 81,530 physical tons, and the predicted production for the next month is 84,200 physical tons, a 3.27% increase. The import volume in July was 18,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for the next month is 18,500 physical tons, a 2.78% increase. It is expected that demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. The 2511 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 85,640 - 89,440 yuan/ton. [9] - The main logic is that the mismatch between production capacity leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. [12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,980 tons, a 2.16% week - on - week increase and higher than the historical average [8]. - Demand: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 95,081 tons, a 0.51% week - on - week increase, and that of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,296 tons, a 4.45% week - on - week increase [8]. - Cost: The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate was 82,375 yuan/ton, a 0.04% daily increase, with a profit of 2,126 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lepidolite was 86,253 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged, with a loss of 3,890 yuan/ton; the cost of the recycling end was close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm; the quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end was 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - Fundamentals: Neutral; Basis: Bearish; Inventory: Neutral; Disk: Bullish; Main Position: Bearish [9]. - Expectations: In July 2025, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 physical tons, predicted to be 84,200 physical tons next month (3.27% increase); import volume was 18,000 physical tons, predicted to be 18,500 physical tons next month (2.78% increase). Demand is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. The 2511 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 85,640 - 89,440 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data - **Supply - side Data** - The weekly operating rate was 63.92%, remaining unchanged. The daily production cost of spodumene was 82,375 yuan/ton, a 0.04% increase. The monthly processing cost of spodumene was 19,810 yuan/ton, a 0.30% increase. The daily production profit of spodumene was 2,126 yuan/ton, a 98.88% increase. The daily production cost of lepidolite was 86,253 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The monthly processing cost of lepidolite was 35,300 yuan/ton, a 1.48% decrease. The daily production profit of lepidolite was - 3,890 yuan/ton, a 21.70% decrease. The total weekly inventory of lithium carbonate was 142,256 tons, a 0.11% decrease. The smelter inventory was 49,693 tons, a 2.56% decrease. The downstream inventory was 48,283 tons, a 0.26% increase. Other inventory was 44,280 tons, a 2.36% increase. The monthly total production of lithium carbonate was 81,530 tons, a 4.41% increase. The monthly production of lithium concentrate was 44,810 tons, a 13.59% increase. The monthly production of lepidolite was 18,000 tons, a 7.60% decrease. The monthly production of salt - lake lithium was 12,340 tons, a 7.57% decrease. The monthly production of recycled lithium was 6,380 tons, a 9.81% increase. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate was 427,626 tons, a 17.25% decrease. The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 17,697.62 tons, a 16.31% decrease. The monthly net import volume was 17,267.97 tons, a 17.22% decrease. The supply - demand balance was 2.682 million tons, a 67.31% increase [16]. - **Demand - side Data** - The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate was 59%, a 5.36% increase. The monthly production was 252,200 tons, a 9.70% increase. The monthly operating rate of ternary precursor was 50.97%, a 2.93% increase. The monthly production was 68,640 tons, a 5.75% increase. The weekly inventory of ternary materials was 17,296 tons, a 4.45% increase. The monthly total battery loading volume was 55,900 GWh, a 3.95% decrease. The loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 10,900 GWh, a 1.87% increase. The loading volume of ternary batteries was 44,900 GWh, a 5.27% decrease. The production of new energy vehicles was 1,268,000 units, a 0.16% decrease. The sales volume of new energy vehicles was 1.329 million units, a 1.68% increase. The export volume of new energy vehicles was 205,000 units, a 3.30% decrease. The penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales was 48.67%, a 6.36% increase [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The rebound space of urea prices is limited due to the persistent pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market. If export demand cannot make up for the shortfall, urea prices will face significant downward pressure [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Changes - Urea futures prices: UR01 in Shandong increased by 17 yuan/ton (0.98%), in Shanxi remained unchanged, UR05 increased by 7 yuan/ton (0.39%), and UR09 increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.58%) [1] - Domestic spot prices (small - granules): In Henan, it increased by 20 yuan/ton (1.16%); in Hebei, by 10 yuan/ton (0.58%); in Northeast, remained unchanged; in Jiangsu, increased by 30 yuan/ton (1.75%) [1] - Upstream costs: Anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged [1] - Downstream prices: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, and melamine prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1] Basis and Spread - Basis (Shandong spot - UR) increased by 23 yuan/ton [1] - Spread (01 - 05) increased by 10 yuan/ton [1] Market Situation - The trading volume of the main contract 2601 was 2601 lots and the open interest was 183,795 lots. The opening price was 1750 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1767 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1745 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1754 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1755 yuan/ton [1] Supply and Demand - The domestic urea supply is strong, with daily production close to 190,000 tons at a high level, and the upstream enterprise inventory is about 860,000 tons. Domestic agricultural demand may gradually enter the off - season [1]