Report Information - Report Date: September 27, 2025 [1] - Report Title: High - frequency Economic Weekly (2025.9.21 - 2025.9.27) [3] - Analysts: Huang Weiping, Luan Qiang [1] - Research Support: Wang Zheyi [1] Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View The report shows that personnel flow has declined while demand has improved month - on - month. Industrial production is generally stable, personnel and freight flows have changed, consumption shows a mixed picture, investment in construction and the real - estate market has improved, exports have seen some fluctuations, and there have been some important policies and events during the period [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Big - class Assets - This week, bond indices generally declined. The China Bond 7 - 10 - year China Development Bank Bond Index fell the most, with a weekly decline of 0.19%. - Most stock indices rose. The Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose the most, with a weekly increase of 6.47%. - Commodities showed mixed performance. The Nanhua Precious Metals Index rose the most, with a gain of 4.48%, while the Nanhua Black Index fell the most, with a decline of 1.95%. - Most foreign currencies depreciated against the RMB. The Japanese yen had the largest decline, with a weekly decline of 0.95%, and the US dollar appreciated against the RMB, with a weekly increase of 0.31% [3] 2. Industrial Production - Production is marginally stable. From the upstream, the weekly coal consumption in the national power plant sample area decreased by 1.27% month - on - month, the weekly operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants increased by 5.70 pcts to 40.10%, the weekly blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.47 pcts to 84.47%, and the weekly crude steel output decreased by 0.67%. - In the real - estate chain, the weekly operating rate of rebar decreased by 2.31 pcts to 40.65%, the operating rate of float glass remained flat at 76.31% compared with last week, and the mill operation rate remained flat at 38.55% compared with last week. - In the consumer goods chain, the operating rate of polyester filament remained flat at 91.54% compared with last week, the PTA operating rate decreased by 0.81 pcts to 76.48%, and the methanol operating rate increased by 0.12 pcts to 79.51%. - In the automotive chain, the operating rate of automobile semi - steel tires decreased by 0.08 pcts to 73.58%, and the operating rate of automobile all - steel tires increased by 0.06 pcts to 65.72% [3] 3. People and Goods Flow - Personnel flow has significantly declined. The 7 - day moving average (7DMA) of the national migration scale index decreased by 7.21% week - on - week. The 7DMA of domestic flight operations decreased by 2.93% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of international flight operations decreased by 1.01% week - on - week. The passenger volume in Beijing and Shanghai increased, while the subway passenger volume in Guangzhou and Shenzhen decreased. - Freight prices decreased slightly. The 4 - week moving average (4WMA) of the road logistics freight rate index decreased by 0.04% week - on - week, and the total volume was higher than the same period in previous years [3] 4. Consumption - Automobile wholesale and retail sales increased year - on - year. In the previous period, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car market wholesale and retail sales were 6.00% and 9.00% respectively, and both the 4WMA of the wholesale year - on - year growth rate and the 4WMA of the retail year - on - year growth rate increased. - The film box office and the number of moviegoers decreased. The weekly film box office decreased by 55% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of moviegoers decreased by 55% week - on - week. - Agricultural product prices showed a mixed performance. The weekly price of pork decreased by 0.31%, while the weekly price of vegetables increased by 4.23% [3] 5. Investment - Construction showed good performance. The weekly cement inventory - to - capacity ratio increased by 0.4 pcts, the weekly cement price index increased by 2.97%, and the weekly cement shipment rate increased by 0.4 pcts. The rebar inventory decreased by 2.8% week - on - week, the proportion of profitable steel mills nationwide decreased by 0.9 pcts week - on - week, and the apparent demand for rebar increased by 5.0% week - on - week. - The real - estate market improved. The 7DMA of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 21.2% week - on - week. The transaction areas of first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities all increased. The 7DMA of the second - hand housing transaction area in 16 cities increased by 1.6% week - on - week, and the national second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.1% week - on - week. The land transaction area in 100 cities increased, and the land transaction premium rate decreased week - on - week [3] 6. Exports - Port throughput increased slightly. The weekly port cargo throughput increased by 0.1%, and the weekly container throughput increased by 0.2%. - Most shipping indices declined. The BDI index increased by 2.54% week - on - week, while the SCFI index and the CCFI index decreased by 6.98% and 2.93% respectively week - on - week [3] 7. Important Policies/Events - On September 22, the LPR quotation remained unchanged. - On September 22, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the development of the financial industry during the 14th Five - Year Plan period, without involving short - term policy adjustments. - On September 24, the central bank announced an operation of 600 billion MLF on September 25. - On September 26, the central bank's third - quarter monetary policy meeting continued to emphasize a "moderately loose" monetary policy [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall industrial production is stable, with some indicators showing upward trends and others showing downward trends. Personnel flow has significantly declined, and freight prices have slightly decreased. Automobile sales have increased year-on-year, and price performance is differentiated. Construction is performing well, and the commercial housing market has improved. Port throughput has increased, while most shipping indices have declined. Bond indices have generally fallen, most stock indices have risen, commodities have shown mixed performance, and most foreign currencies have depreciated [1]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Large - scale Assets - This week, bond indices generally declined, most stock indices rose, commodities showed mixed performance, and most foreign currencies depreciated. The China Bond 7 - 10 - year China Development Bank Bond Index fell the most, with a weekly decline of 0.19%. The Sci - tech Innovation 50 Index rose the most, with a weekly increase of 6.47%. The Nanhua Precious Metals Index rose the most among commodities, with a gain of 4.48%, while the Nanhua Black Index fell the most, with a decline of 1.95%. Most foreign currencies depreciated against the RMB, with the Japanese yen having the largest decline of 0.95%, and the US dollar appreciated against the RMB, with a weekly increase of 0.31% [1][6]. 2. Industrial Production - Production is marginally stable. From the upstream perspective, the weekly coal consumption in the national power plant sample area decreased by 1.27% week - on - week, the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants increased by 5.70 pcts to 40.10% week - on - week, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.47 pcts to 84.47% week - on - week, and the crude steel output decreased by 0.67% week - on - week. In the real estate chain, the rebar operating rate decreased by 2.31 pcts to 40.65% week - on - week, the float glass operating rate remained flat at 76.31% compared with last week, and the mill operating rate remained flat at 38.55% compared with last week. In the general consumer goods chain, the polyester filament operating rate remained flat at 91.54% compared with last week, the PTA operating rate decreased by 0.81 pcts to 76.48% week - on - week, and the methanol operating rate increased by 0.12 pcts to 79.51% week - on - week. In the automotive chain, the operating rate of automobile semi - steel tires decreased by 0.08 pcts to 73.58% week - on - week, and the operating rate of automobile all - steel tires increased by 0.06 pcts to 65.72% week - on - week [1][9]. 3. People and Goods Flow - Personnel flow has significantly declined, and freight prices have slightly decreased. The 7 - day moving average (7DMA) of the national migration scale index decreased by 7.21% week - on - week. The 7DMA of the number of domestic flights decreased by 2.93% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of international flights decreased by 1.01% week - on - week. The passenger volumes in Beijing and Shanghai increased, while the subway passenger volumes in Guangzhou and Shenzhen decreased. The 4 - week moving average (4WMA) of the road logistics freight rate index decreased by 0.04% week - on - week, and the total volume was higher than the same period in previous years [1][32]. 4. Consumption - Automobile sales have increased year - on - year, and price performance is differentiated. Both the year - on - year wholesale and retail sales of automobiles increased. In the previous period, the year - on - year sales of passenger cars in the wholesale and retail markets increased by 6.00% and 9.00% respectively compared with last year, and both the 4WMA of the year - on - year wholesale growth rate and the 4WMA of the year - on - year retail growth rate increased. The weekly box office of movies decreased by 55% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of moviegoers decreased by 55% week - on - week. Agricultural product prices showed differentiation, with the pork price decreasing by 0.31% week - on - week and the vegetable price increasing by 4.23% week - on - week [1][46]. 5. Investment - Construction is performing well, and the commercial housing market has improved. The cement inventory - to - capacity ratio increased by 0.4 pcts week - on - week, the cement price index increased by 2.97% week - on - week, and the cement shipment rate increased by 0.4 pcts week - on - week. The rebar inventory decreased by 2.8% week - on - week, the proportion of profitable steel mills nationwide decreased by 0.9 pcts week - on - week, and the apparent demand for rebar increased by 5.0% week - on - week. Overall, the terminal demand for construction is performing well. The 7DMA of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 21.2% week - on - week. By city tier, the commercial housing transaction areas in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities all increased. The 7DMA of the second - hand housing transaction area in 16 cities increased by 1.6% week - on - week, and the national second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.1% week - on - week. The land transaction area in 100 cities increased, and the land transaction premium rate decreased week - on - week [1][55]. 6. Export - Port throughput has increased slightly, and most shipping indices have declined. The weekly port cargo throughput increased by 0.1% week - on - week, and the container throughput increased by 0.2% week - on - week. The BDI index increased by 2.54% week - on - week, while the SCFI index and CCFI index decreased by 6.98% and 2.93% respectively week - on - week [1][73].

Economic Growth and Demand - China's economic growth remains strong, but domestic demand is slightly below expectations, with key production and demand indicators showing stable growth in the first eight months of the year [2] - In August, there was a marginal decline in economic performance, with year-on-year growth rates for industrial value added, service production index, retail sales, fixed asset investment, and export amounts all weakening [2] - The internal driving force for economic growth has not yet solidified, with ongoing transitions between old and new growth drivers, particularly due to household deleveraging impacting economic circulation [2] Service Consumption Policies - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments issued policies on September 16 to expand service consumption, enhancing consumer credit support and promoting collaboration between financial institutions and businesses [3][4] - Service consumption is identified as a crucial support for improving livelihoods and upgrading consumption, with a projected 6.2% year-on-year growth in service retail sales for 2024, outpacing goods retail sales by 3 percentage points [5] - The government aims to attract more foreign consumers and reduce restrictions in high-end medical and leisure sectors to increase quality service supply [6] External Trade and Export Dynamics - In August, China's total goods imports and exports grew by 3.5% year-on-year, with both exports and imports achieving three consecutive months of growth [7] - The export of electromechanical products saw a significant increase, with a 9.2% year-on-year growth in the first eight months [7] - Despite a decline in export growth rate, the resilience of exports is expected to exceed expectations due to adjustments in export markets, particularly with ASEAN and EU countries compensating for reduced exports to the US [7][8] Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - The economic growth is primarily supported by policy measures and structural highlights, but challenges remain due to weak internal and external demand, low corporate profit expectations, and funding constraints [8] - The fourth quarter is seen as a critical period for economic stabilization, with the effectiveness of policy financial tools, local government projects, and consumption stimulus policies being pivotal for maintaining growth [8]

Economic Performance Overview - In August, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 5.2% year-on-year and 0.37% month-on-month [1] - The service production index rose by 5.6% year-on-year in August [1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.4% year-on-year and 0.17% month-on-month in August [1] - From January to August, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 0.5% year-on-year, while excluding real estate development investment, it grew by 4.2% [1][4] Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment increased by 5.1% year-on-year from January to August, although the growth rate is declining [4] - Infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas, and water production and supply) grew by 2.0%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous period [4] - Real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year-on-year, with the decline rate widening by 0.9 percentage points [4][5] Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate market is experiencing fluctuations but is moving towards stabilization, with a narrowing decline in sales and housing prices [5] - Recent adjustments in housing policies in some cities have shown positive effects, leading to improved market transactions [5] - The government is focusing on enhancing urban renewal and increasing the supply of high-quality housing to meet demand [5][6] Consumer Market Insights - The retail sales of consumer goods showed a year-on-year growth of 4.6% from January to August, with service retail sales increasing by 5.1% [8] - Key consumer goods categories, such as furniture and home appliances, saw significant sales growth in August, with increases of 18.6% and 14.3% respectively [8] - The film industry also experienced a surge, with box office revenue and attendance increasing by 48.6% and 66.9% year-on-year in August [8][9] Trade and Export Performance - In August, the total goods import and export volume increased by 3.5% year-on-year, with exports growing by 4.8% and imports by 1.7% [9] - Cumulatively, from January to August, exports rose by 6.9%, while imports fell by 1.2% [9] - Exports to the U.S. saw a significant decline of 32.9%, which was a major drag on overall export performance [9] Price Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.9% year-on-year in August, but the decline rate narrowed by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month [9][10] - Factors contributing to the PPI changes include improved market competition, increased demand in emerging industries, and the effects of consumption-boosting policies [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the commodity index fluctuated and declined slightly. Industrial and agricultural products both weakened. The weak fundamentals dragged down the overall commodity trend in the first half - week, while the market risk appetite improved in the second half - week, driving the commodities to rebound. The demand in the peak season was not strong, and the commodities were likely to fluctuate weakly. There were both bullish and bearish factors at the macro - level, and the demand had not improved significantly at the fundamental level [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views - **Review**: The commodity index fluctuated and declined slightly this week. Industrial and agricultural products weakened. The weak fundamentals in the first half - week and the improved risk appetite in the second half - week due to Fed rate - cut expectations and A - share rebound affected the commodity trend [3]. - **Overseas**: - In August, US inflation met market expectations. The CPI increased year - on - year and month - on - month, mainly due to rising prices of food, energy, and housing. A 25BP rate cut in September was the benchmark scenario, and the inflation upside risk was controllable. The weak employment market might be the Fed's focus [3]. - In the first week of September, the seasonally - adjusted initial jobless claims in the US reached 263,000, an increase of 27,000 from the previous week, indicating a cooling labor market [3]. - The ECB maintained key interest rates unchanged on September 11, 2025. The policy signal was "hawkish". The market's expectation of another ECB rate cut this year dropped to about 15%. In the short - term, the ECB was likely to stay put, while in the long - term, its policy stance was uncertain [3]. - **Domestic**: - In August, the new social financing scale was 2.57 trillion yuan, less than the same period last year but slightly higher than expected. New loans were 590 billion yuan, less than last year and in line with expectations. The real - economy financing demand was weak, and government net financing might become a drag. The rebound of resident and enterprise credit demand was crucial [3]. - In August, China's imports and exports in US dollars were lower than expected. Export momentum might weaken marginally, but there were still supporting factors such as global economic recovery and strong exports to Africa [3]. - **Commodity View**: With the peak demand season not living up to expectations, commodities were likely to fluctuate weakly. There were both bullish and bearish factors at the macro - level, and the demand had not improved at the fundamental level [3]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **US Inflation and Employment**: In August, US CPI increased year - on - year to 2.9%. The seasonally - adjusted initial jobless claims in the first week of September increased significantly, and the labor market was cooling [3][7][10]. - **ECB Policy**: The ECB maintained key interest rates unchanged on September 11, 2025. The policy signal was "hawkish", and the market's expectation of another rate cut this year dropped to about 15%. The future policy stance was uncertain depending on inflation and economic recovery [3][13]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **Financial Data**: In August, new social financing and loans were lower than the same period last year. The real - economy financing demand was weak, and government net financing might affect future performance. The rebound of credit demand was key [3][17]. - **Foreign Trade Data**: In August, China's imports and exports in US dollars were lower than expected. Export momentum might weaken, but there were supporting factors [3][20]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Data**: On September 5, the PTA operating rate was 78.28%, and the POY operating rate was 87.36%. In August and September, the operating rates of some industries showed certain changes [27][34]. - **Automobile Data**: In August and September, the sales of automobiles showed growth. For example, in August, the sales were 201.9 (units not specified), a 5.9% increase [34]. - **Agricultural Product Data**: On September 12, the price changes of some agricultural products were 0.75% and 0.14%, etc. [35].

Economic Overview - In August, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 5.2% year-on-year and 0.37% month-on-month [1] - The service production index rose by 5.6% year-on-year in August [1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.4% year-on-year and 0.17% month-on-month in August [1] - From January to August, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 0.5% year-on-year, while excluding real estate development, it grew by 4.2% [1][2] - The total import and export volume in August increased by 3.5% year-on-year, with exports rising by 4.8% and imports by 1.7% [1][6] Real Estate Market - Real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year-on-year from January to August, with the decline expanding by 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous period [2][3] - Despite fluctuations, the sales of commercial housing and residential prices have shown a narrowing decline, indicating progress in destocking [2] - The government is implementing policies to stabilize the real estate market and promote housing demand [3] Consumer Market - The retail sales of consumer goods showed a growth of 4.6% year-on-year from January to August, with service retail sales increasing by 5.1% [5] - In August, key consumer goods such as furniture and home appliances saw significant sales growth, with increases of 18.6% and 14.3% respectively [6] - The film industry also experienced a surge, with box office revenue and attendance increasing by 48.6% and 66.9% year-on-year in August [6] Export Dynamics - Exports to the U.S. fell by 32.9% in August, which was a significant drag on overall export performance [7] - However, exports to non-U.S. and non-ASEAN regions grew by 6.4% year-on-year, indicating successful market diversification efforts [7] Price Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.9% year-on-year in August, but the decline was less severe than in previous months [8] - Factors contributing to the narrowing PPI decline include improved market competition, increased demand in emerging industries, and effective consumption-boosting policies [8]

Inflation Trends - August CPI fell significantly by 0.4 percentage points to -0.4%, the lowest in nearly six months, primarily due to low food prices[3] - Core CPI improved slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 0.9%, driven by rising gold prices and stable service consumption[5] Food Prices - August food CPI decreased by 2.7 percentage points to -4.3%, significantly impacting overall CPI[4] - Fresh food supply was ample, with egg prices rising by 1.5% and fresh fruit prices dropping by 2.8% month-on-month[4] Industrial Prices - PPI's year-on-year decline narrowed by 0.7 percentage points to -2.9%, with month-on-month prices stabilizing after eight months of decline[6] - Coal and steel prices rebounded, with coal mining and washing industries increasing by 2.8% and black metal smelting rising by 1.9% month-on-month[6] Economic Outlook - The recovery of core CPI and PPI is expected to be gradual, influenced by fiscal policy and the real estate market's ongoing challenges[6] - Export demand is showing initial signs of cooling, necessitating close monitoring of economic conditions through 2026[6]

Economic Resilience and Retail Sector - In September, China's retail industry prosperity index reached 50.6%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points month-on-month, marking the highest level in eight months, indicating a positive trend in retail development [3] - The retail sector's performance is supported by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption, with retail sales of 11 categories of light industrial goods reaching 4.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.4% [8] Logistics and Transportation - In August, 15 new international air cargo routes were opened, with over 30 round-trip flights added weekly, totaling 152 new routes in the first eight months of the year [5] - The road logistics price index for August was reported at 105.1 points, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.01% and a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, indicating a vibrant road logistics market [7] Light Industry Performance - In the first seven months of the year, China's light industry maintained steady operation with a total revenue of 13.2 trillion yuan and a profit of 760.1 billion yuan, supported by strong production and market scale [8] - The investment growth in the light industry remains robust, with major sectors experiencing double-digit growth rates, surpassing the national fixed asset investment and manufacturing investment growth rates [10] Export Dynamics - Light industry exports reached 535.75 billion USD in the first seven months, accounting for 25.1% of the national total, with 11 out of 21 major categories showing growth [12] Foreign Investment in Guangdong - Guangdong province saw a 32.7% year-on-year increase in the number of newly established foreign-funded enterprises, totaling 17,000 in the first seven months [13][14] - The actual use of foreign capital in Guangdong reached 65.67 billion yuan, an increase of 8.2% year-on-year, with the manufacturing sector accounting for 29.1% of the total [16] Customs Special Supervision Areas - The comprehensive bonded zones and bonded logistics parks have contributed significantly to foreign trade, accounting for one-fifth of the national import and export value despite occupying less than 0.02% of the land area [16][18] - By 2024, the import and export value of customs special supervision areas is expected to grow by over 30% compared to 2020 [16]

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Economic Indicators - August 2025 domestic CPI is expected to be approximately 0.1% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline to -0.3%[3] - July 2025 PPI is projected to increase by about 0.4% month-on-month, with a significant year-on-year recovery to -2.5%[3] - Industrial added value is anticipated to rebound slightly to 6.0% year-on-year in August 2025[3] - Retail sales of consumer goods are expected to rise to 4.5% year-on-year in August 2025[3] Investment and Trade - Fixed asset investment is forecasted to continue declining, reaching a cumulative year-on-year growth of 1.3%[3] - Exports in dollar terms are projected to decrease to around 6.0% year-on-year[3] - Trade surplus for August 2025 is estimated at 992 million USD, up from 982 million USD in the previous period[4] Financial Metrics - Monthly increase in credit is expected to be 10,500 million CNY, a significant improvement from a decrease of 500 million CNY previously[4] - Total social financing is projected to increase by 26,000 million CNY for the month, compared to 11,320 million CNY previously[4] - M2 year-on-year growth rate is expected to remain stable at 8.8%[4]