数据来源：Wind、Mystee、富宝资讯、广发期货发展研究中心。请仔细阅读报告尾端免责声明。 免责声明 | 钢材产业期现日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025年7月24日 | | | 問數波 | Z0010559 | | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 现值 | 品种 | | 前值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 3380 | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | | 3370 | 10 | ટેર | | | 3340 | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | | 3330 | 10 | 16 | | | 3490 | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3480 | | -10 | 156 | | | 3350 | 螺纹钢05合约 | | 3386 | -36 | 30 | | | 3274 | 螺纹钢10合约 | | 3307 | -33 | 106 | | | 3324 | 螺纹钢01合约 | | 3367 | -43 | 56 | | | 3450 | 热卷现货 ...

Group 1: Hainan Free Trade Port - Hainan Free Trade Port will officially start customs closure operations on December 18, 2025, allowing for a special customs supervision area across the entire island [1] - The customs closure will implement a policy characterized by "one line open, one line controlled, and free flow within the island," facilitating international trade and investment [1] - After customs closure, many overseas goods imported into Hainan will enjoy zero or low tariffs, with a 30% value-added processing requirement for zero tariffs when transported to the mainland [1] Group 2: US-Japan Trade Agreement - The US and Japan have reached a trade agreement, with a 15% tariff on Japanese imports, and Japan committing to invest $550 billion in the US [3] - The agreement includes a reduction of tariffs on Japanese cars from 25% to 15%, while maintaining existing tariffs on steel and aluminum [3] - This trade agreement is seen as a step forward in the US's negotiations with major trading partners, with potential long-term impacts on global trade dynamics [4] Group 3: Telecommunications Operators - China's three major telecom operators have committed to simplifying their service packages and enhancing transparency in consumer transactions [5] - Measures include requiring explicit customer consent for service changes and improving the process for unsubscribing from services [5] - Despite improvements, challenges remain in the ease of unsubscribing and accessing low-cost packages, indicating a need for further enhancement in customer service [6] Group 4: Wanda's Financial Asset Sale - Wanda Group plans to sell a 30% stake in Quick Money Financial for 240 million yuan, as part of its strategy to divest from non-core assets amid a challenging real estate market [7] - Quick Money Financial, which holds a third-party payment license, is expected to benefit from the growing digital currency and cross-border payment sectors [8] - The sale reflects Wanda's ongoing efforts to transition to a lighter asset model while navigating pressures in the commercial real estate sector [7] Group 5: JD's Acquisition of Hong Kong Retailer - JD.com is set to acquire Hong Kong-based supermarket chain Jia Bao for 4 billion HKD, aiming to expand its presence in the Hong Kong retail market [9] - The acquisition includes a transitional management period where Jia Bao's founders will continue to manage operations for three years [9] - This move is part of JD's strategy to enhance its supply chain capabilities and integrate online and offline retail operations [10] Group 6: Public Fund Growth - As of the end of Q2, China's public fund market reached a total scale of 33.73 trillion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.69% [11] - Equity funds saw a total scale of 4.28 trillion yuan, while bond funds increased by 8.55% to 10.92 trillion yuan [11] - The competitive landscape among fund companies remains intense, with top firms maintaining their positions despite fluctuations in fund performance [12] Group 7: Commodity Market Trends - A rare surge in the domestic commodity market saw six major products, including glass and industrial silicon, hit their daily price limits [13] - This surge was driven by concerns over coal supply reductions, prompting a broader market reaction and price increases across various sectors [13] - Despite the initial price increases, downstream industries remain cautious, indicating a potential gap between quoted prices and actual transaction prices [14] Group 8: Stock Market Performance - The stock market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing slightly up at 3582.3 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.37% [15] - Market activity was characterized by a mix of rising and falling stocks, with significant trading volume but a lack of clear direction [15] - The recent customs closure announcement for Hainan has led to declines in related sectors, reflecting market sensitivity to policy changes [16]

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector is expected to benefit from a new round of anti-involution and capacity reduction measures initiated by the National Energy Administration, aimed at stabilizing coal supply and optimizing industry order [2][3][9]. Group 1: Policy Announcement - The National Energy Administration issued a notification on July 10, 2025, regarding the organization of coal mine production situation checks to promote stable and orderly coal supply [2][5]. - The notification indicates that the coal supply-demand situation has been generally loose this year, with prices continuously declining, leading some coal enterprises to produce beyond their announced capacity, disrupting market order [3][4]. Group 2: Inspection Scope and Requirements - The inspection will cover coal mines in eight provinces, including Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Anhui, focusing on whether the annual coal output exceeds announced capacity and if production plans are reasonable [5][6]. - Violations will be categorized and dealt with according to the nature and severity, with corrective actions mandated for companies exceeding production limits [6][7]. Group 3: Market Reaction and Investment Outlook - Following the announcement, the coal sector saw a significant increase, with a rise of over 6% on July 22, 2025, although it experienced a slight decline the following day [9][10]. - Analysts suggest that the anti-involution measures will help stabilize supply-demand relationships and optimize industry order, with high-quality coal companies still showing strong attributes such as high barriers to entry and cash flow [2][9]. - The current proportion of loss-making companies in the coal industry stands at 53.6%, significantly higher than 35% in 2016, indicating a pressing need for the anti-involution actions to restore profitability [9][11]. Group 4: Price Trends and Future Expectations - As of July 21, 2025, the price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal was 642 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 12 RMB/ton, and a rebound of 27 RMB/ton from the yearly low [10]. - Analysts predict that with improved demand and more rational supply releases, coal prices are expected to rise further, creating a safer and more sustainable development environment for the industry [10][11].

煤炭领域或将迎来新一轮的反内卷和去产能。7月22日下午，一则国家能源局综合司发布的促进煤炭供 应平稳有序的通知在网上流传。通知显示，今年以来，全国煤炭供需形势总体宽松，价格持续下行，部 分煤矿企业"以量补价"，超公告产能组织生产，严重扰乱煤炭市场秩序。为规范煤矿企业生产行为，促 进煤炭供应平稳有序，国家能源局拟于近期在重点产煤省(区)组织开展煤矿生产情况核查工作。23日上 午，从国家能源局的多个渠道确认，该通知属实。据知情人士介绍，该文件是由煤炭司主导负责。(央 广网) ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The recent theme in the chemical sector is the rectification expectation of plants in operation for over 20 years. The capacity of methanol plants in China in operation for over 20 years accounts for 8%. The expectation of capacity reduction has driven up the chemical market, but the methanol spot price has been slow to follow, and the basis has continued to weaken. Overseas methanol plants are operating at a high level, leading to high pressure on China's imports and a rapid increase in port inventories. For downstream MTO, the maintenance plans of some MTO plants have not been implemented, and attention should be paid to the progress of production reduction in late July. The short - term situation at ports remains weak. In the inland areas, coal - based methanol plants are undergoing short - term centralized maintenance, with the operating rate at a short - term low, but it will gradually recover by the end of the month. The traditional downstream shows strong demand, with MTBE showing stronger - than - expected resilience and acetic acid operating at a stable rate. Inland methanol plant inventories have decreased again, indicating that the inland market is stronger than the port market [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - period spreads, including the basis between methanol in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and the main futures contract, as well as the spreads between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01). The data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [7][9][22] 3.2 Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and import spreads such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China. The data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [26][27][31] 3.3 Methanol Operation and Inventory - The total port inventory of methanol, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated plants), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated plants) are presented in figures. The data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [34][35][37] 3.4 Regional Price Differences - Figures show regional price differences such as the difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, the difference between Taicang and Inner Mongolia, and the differences between other regions. The data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [39][46][49] 3.5 Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production gross margins of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan. The data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [50][52][60] 4. Market News and Important Data 4.1 Inland Market - Q5500 thermal coal in Ordos is priced at 450 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia is 615 yuan/ton (unchanged). Inland methanol prices vary by region: Inner Mongolia North Line is 1990 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of 133 yuan/ton (down 46 yuan); Inner Mongolia South Line is 1990 yuan/ton (unchanged); Linyi in Shandong is 2335 yuan/ton (up 35 yuan), with a basis of 78 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan); Henan is 2170 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), with a basis of - 87 yuan/ton (down 36 yuan); Hebei is 2190 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of - 7 yuan/ton (down 46 yuan). The inventory of inland plants is 352340 tons (down 4560 tons), and the inventory of plants in the northwest is 218000 tons (down 10000 tons). The pending orders of inland plants are 243119 tons (up 21879 tons), and those of plants in the northwest are 113600 tons (up 13600 tons) [1] 4.2 Port Market - Methanol in Taicang is priced at 2412 yuan/ton (up 14 yuan), with a basis of - 45 yuan/ton (down 32 yuan); CFR China is 275 US dollars/ton (up 2 US dollars), and the import price difference in East China is - 20 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan). Methanol in Changzhou is 2410 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it is 2410 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), with a basis of - 47 yuan/ton (down 36 yuan). The total port inventory is 790200 tons (up 71300 tons), with the inventory in Jiangsu ports at 454000 tons (up 59000 tons), in Zhejiang ports at 180000 tons (up 4500 tons), and in Guangdong ports at 106000 tons (down 6000 tons). The downstream MTO operating rate is 85.10% (up 0.27%) [2] 4.3 Regional Price Differences - The price difference between northern Shandong and the northwest is 15 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan); the difference between Taicang and Inner Mongolia is - 128 yuan/ton (up 14 yuan); the difference between Taicang and southern Shandong is - 173 yuan/ton (down 21 yuan); the difference between southern Shandong and Taicang is - 177 yuan/ton (up 21 yuan); the difference between Guangdong and East China is - 182 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan); the difference between East China and Sichuan - Chongqing is - 23 yuan/ton (down 21 yuan) [2] 5. Strategy - Unilateral: Buy on dips for hedging - Inter - period: Do reverse spreads when the MA09 - 01 inter - period spread is high - Cross - variety: Shrink the spread between PP2601 and 3MA2601 when it is high [4]

数据来源：Wind、Mysteel、富宝资讯、广发期货研究所。请仔细阅读报告尾端免责声明。 免费声明 体报告中的信息均来源于被广发明货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告反映研究人员的不同现点、见解 、并不代表广发明货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下、报告内容仅供参考．报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价．投资者 风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士．版权归广发期货所有．未经广发期货书面授权、任何人不得对本报告进行任何影式的发布 据此报资。 复制。如引用、刊发. 需注明出处为"广发期货"。 | 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年7月23日 | | | 周敏波 | 6560400Z | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张庆 | 某差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3370 | 3320 | 50 | 3 | | ...

Industry Insights - The Chinese equipment manufacturing industry is expected to benefit significantly from the rural road upgrade and renovation, which could create a market worth trillions of yuan [2][4]. - The newly implemented Rural Road Regulations emphasize improving road network quality and promoting integrated urban-rural transportation development [2]. Market Potential - As of the end of 2024, China's rural road total mileage is projected to be 4.64 million kilometers, accounting for approximately 85% of the national road total [4]. - It is estimated that 9% of rural roads (around 410,000 kilometers) may require upgrades over the next decade, with upgrade costs ranging from 30 million to 50 million yuan per kilometer, leading to potential annual expenditures of 1.2 trillion to 2 trillion yuan [4]. Beneficiaries - Companies such as SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion Heavy Industry, Hengli Hydraulic, Weichai Power, and China National Heavy Duty Truck are expected to benefit from the rural road upgrades, acting as catalysts for the engineering machinery and heavy truck sectors [5].

Group 1 - The A500 Index (000510) has shown a 0.52% increase, with notable gains from constituent stocks such as China Energy Engineering (601868) up 10.20% and Tunnel Engineering (600820) up 10.07% [1] - The A500 ETF (512050) has also risen by 0.60%, marking its fourth consecutive increase, with the latest price at 1.01 yuan [1] - A new round of "de-involution" and capacity reduction actions has commenced across multiple industries, driven by policy signals aimed at alleviating deflationary expectations from the supply side [1] Group 2 - The A500 Index is designed to reflect the overall performance of the 500 most representative listed companies across various industries, selected based on market capitalization and liquidity [2] - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the A500 Index include Kweichow Moutai (600519) and CATL (300750), collectively accounting for 20.67% of the index [2] Group 3 - The top ten stocks in the A500 Index and their respective weightings include: - Kweichow Moutai: 1.17% increase, 3.81% weight - CATL: 1.83% increase, 2.88% weight - China Ping An: -1.19% decrease, 2.58% weight - China Merchants Bank: -0.13% decrease, 2.46% weight - Industrial Bank: -0.92% decrease, 1.68% weight - Yangtze Power: -0.61% decrease, 1.59% weight - Midea Group: 0.62% increase, 1.53% weight - Zijin Mining: 2.17% increase, 1.39% weight - BYD: 1.44% increase, 1.30% weight - Eastmoney: 0.21% increase, 1.26% weight [3] Group 4 - The A500 ETF (512050) has several related funds, including the 华夏中证A500ETF联接 series and the 华夏中证A500指数增强 series [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of iron ore show that steel mill hot metal production is decreasing, the arrival level this month has dropped, the overall supply - demand is loose, port inventories are decreasing, there are rumors of crude steel reduction policies, and the trade war is easing, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The basis indicates that spot prices at Rizhao Port and Qingdao Port are at a premium to futures, showing a neutral state [2]. - Port inventories stand at 14,381.51 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, which is neutral [2]. - The price is above the 20 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average is upward, showing a bullish tendency [2]. - The net position of the iron ore main contract is short, with short positions decreasing, showing a bearish tendency [2]. - With the expected decline in domestic demand and the impact of capacity - reduction plans on the market, the market is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Steel mill hot metal production decreases, supply arrival drops, overall supply - demand is loose, port inventories decrease, there are rumors of crude steel reduction policies, and the trade war eases, neutral [2]. - **Basis**: Rizhao Port PB powder spot converted to futures price is 827, basis is 18; Qingdao Port Super Special powder spot converted to futures price is 887, basis is 78, spot at a premium to futures, neutral [2]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory is 14,381.51 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, neutral [2]. - **Disk**: Price above 20 - day moving average and 20 - day moving average upward, bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: Net short position of the main iron ore contract, short positions decreasing, bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: Domestic demand declines, capacity - reduction plans impact the market, market expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias [2]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Likely to be Bullish**: High hot metal production, decreasing port inventories, import losses, rising downstream steel prices with strong tolerance for high - priced raw materials [6]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: Increased future shipments, weak terminal demand [6].

Group 1: Current Inflation Status - The CPI in June 2025 increased by only 0.1% year-on-year, significantly below the 2% inflation target[3] - The PPI in June 2025 dropped to -3.6%, marking the lowest level in the year and continuing a negative trend for 33 consecutive months[3][19] - Key factors contributing to low CPI include weak performance in food and energy prices, underestimating the impact of "de-real estate," and weak demand for durable goods and services[3][15][18] Group 2: Policy Implications and Future Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to have a weaker impact on inflation compared to "capacity reduction" policies, as it focuses on market mechanisms rather than administrative measures[3][26] - CPI recovery to above 2% is anticipated to be slow due to ample supply and underappreciated real estate factors[3][29] - PPI is projected to turn positive by Q2 2026, with a forecasted year-end PPI of -1.3% in 2025[3][29] Group 3: Risks and Market Dynamics - Risks include unexpected downturns in the real estate market and insufficient policy effectiveness[3][29] - The relationship between PPI and commodity prices is crucial, with coal, rebar, lithium carbonate, copper, pork, and crude oil being significant influencers[3][20][22] - Recent commodity price trends show a decline in coal and rebar prices, while copper has shown signs of recovery[3][22]