投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 贵金属 姓名：何彬 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F03090813 投资咨询证号：Z0019840 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：hebin@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 贵金属 | 周报 · 2025 年 6 月 9 日 贵金属周报 专业研究·创造价值 关注中美在英会议 核心观点 端午节后一周，金价呈现冲高回落态势，纽约金在3400美元关口 得而复失，对应沪金跌破 780 元关口。节后金价上行很大程度上是受 到了美国提升钢铝关税至 50%的刺激；而随后金价回落很大程度上由 于中美关系趋于缓和，且美国就业表现韧性。 上周白银上涨明显，突破了 2024 年 5 月高位，金银比值大幅下 行。我们认为短期白银上涨一方面是有金银比值高位作为上涨基础， 另一方面则是黄金弱势，资金有流入白银的趋势。短线白银创下 ...

以下文章来源于申万宏源策略 ，作者全球资产配置团队 申万宏源策略 . 我们强调体系性、实战性 5月欧洲股债流入明显，中国股债出现"跷跷板"效应 —— 全球资产配置资金流向月报（2025年5月） 金倩婧/冯晓宇/林遵东/涂锦文/王胜 本期投资提示： 5月12日，中美瑞士日内瓦会谈取得阶段性成果。中美互相大幅降低"对等关税"，全球风险偏好 显著提升，全球股指普遍上涨。 5月22日，20年期美债拍卖遇冷，拍卖的最终得标利率为 5.047%，突破5%大关。得标利率较预发行利率5.035%高出约1.2个基点，创下去年12月以来的 最大尾部利差。拍卖的投标倍数为2.46，是自2月以来的最低水平。美债拍卖遇冷引发全球对美 国财政压力的担忧，叠加指数涨幅已经出现明显修复。全球股指进入震荡形态。 总的来看，5 月中美日欧股市都有上涨，其中港股和美股涨幅靠前，沪深300涨幅靠后。 全球资产价格表现上，5月全月来看，权益类资产普遍上涨，美债收益率上升美元走弱。1）权 益方面， 5月12日的中美瑞士贸易会谈取得重要成果，双方同意大幅削减4月2日以来的关税税 率，全球风险偏好明显提升，全球股指多数上涨，其中韩国、越南和美国股市涨幅靠前 ...

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index has returned above 6000 points for the first time since February, indicating a significant recovery in market risk appetite [8][9] - The overall performance of major global asset classes was mixed, with NYMEX platinum (+11.64%) showing the largest increase, while the Japanese yen against the RMB saw the largest decline (-1.05%) [30][41] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for May increased by 139,000, slightly above the expected 130,000, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, aligning with market expectations [8][9] Group 2 - The global equity markets exhibited varied performance, with the Korean Composite Stock Price Index rising by 4.24%, while the Nikkei 225 saw a decline of 0.59% [33][45] - In the U.S. equity market, the communication services sector experienced the highest gain at +2.96%, while the consumer discretionary sector faced the largest drop at -0.85% [40] - The major commodities market showed mixed results, with NYMEX platinum leading the gains, while CBOT corn recorded the largest decline at -0.34% [47][49] Group 3 - The report highlights the importance of upcoming economic data, particularly the June CPI data, which could influence interest rate expectations and further impact technology stocks [8][9] - The Federal Reserve's internal discussions reflect a cautious dovish tone, with officials indicating the possibility of rate cuts later in the year [9][10] - The report tracks significant economic indicators, including the ISM manufacturing PMI for May at 48.5, which is below both the previous value and market expectations [8][9]

Group 1 - The issuance of actively managed equity funds is showing signs of recovery, with an increase in the number of funds with large fundraising scales and the average issuance scale reaching a new high for the year [1][2] - The first floating rate funds have entered the market, significantly boosting the issuance heat of actively managed equity funds, with the largest fund raised this year being the Dongfanghong Core Value Mixed Fund at 1.991 billion yuan [2][3] - In June, four actively managed equity funds have raised over 1 billion yuan, indicating a structural recovery in the issuance market [2][3] Group 2 - Market sentiment is expected to continue improving due to the alleviation of external disturbances and the implementation of domestic growth stabilization policies [4][6] - The market is focusing on high elasticity sectors such as new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and technology growth, which are expected to perform well in the current environment [4][5] - The demand for equity assets is anticipated to increase, leading to further recovery in the issuance of actively managed equity funds [6]

Group 1 - The A-share market sentiment has improved due to increased risk appetite, with major indices rising, particularly the ChiNext Index, which increased by 2.32% over the week [1] - Analysts expect the A-share market to remain in a recovery phase in June, supported by the easing of external disturbances and the implementation of domestic growth policies [2][3] - The market is anticipated to maintain a volatile but upward trend, with rapid sector rotation, providing structural investment opportunities for investors [2][3] Group 2 - The small-cap stocks have shown strong performance recently, but there are concerns about potential volatility due to high trading congestion and valuation deviations [3] - The trading loss indicator has declined significantly, suggesting a diminishing profit effect in the small-cap sector, which may warrant a focus on fundamental investment logic [3] - Analysts recommend focusing on stocks with improving earnings growth in the upcoming semi-annual report season, particularly within the small-cap segment [3] Group 3 - Three main investment themes have emerged: domestic consumption, technology growth, and high-margin dividend assets, which are attracting institutional attention [4] - The domestic policy focus on expanding consumption is expected to catalyze further growth, with resilient performance anticipated in sectors like home goods and food processing [4] - The technology sector is viewed as a long-term investment focus, with investors advised to wait for significant catalysts to emerge from industry trends [4]

风险偏好回升贵金属强劲补涨 但金价明显滞涨 2025年06月08日 威尔鑫投资咨询研究中心 （文） 首席分析师 杨易君 来源：杨易君黄金与金融投资 上周国际现货金价以3289.05美元开盘，最高上试3403.14美元，最低下探3288.75美元，报收3308.83美 元，上涨20.14美元，涨幅0.61%，振幅3.48%，周K线呈冲高回落，光脚倒T字阳。 上周美元指数以99.42点开盘，最高上试99.43点，最低下探98.34点，报收99.19点，下跌230点，跌幅 0.23%，振幅1.10%，周K线呈震荡下行小阴线。 上周wellxin贵金指数（金银钯铂）以6281.00点开盘，最高上试6711.24点，最低下探6261.22点，报收 6592.81点，上涨312.76点，涨幅4.98%，振幅7.17%，周K线长阳线上行，周收盘续创历史新高。 上周： NYMEX原油价格上涨6.55%，振幅6.15%，报收64.77美元； 伦铜上涨1.83%，振幅3.14%，报收9670.5美元； 伦铝上涨0.12%，振幅2.84%，报收2451.50美元； 伦铅上涨0.51%，振幅1.78%，报收1974.00美元； 伦锌 ...

兴业期货日度策略：2025.06.06 重点策略推荐及操作建议： 商品期货方面：白银相对坚挺，氧化铝、尿素承压。 联系电话：021-80220262 操作上： 品种基本面分析及行情研判： | 品种 | 观点及操作建议 | 方向研判 | 分析师 | 联系人 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 中美谈话再传积极信号，风险偏好继续回升 本周以来 A 股市场持续走强，资金量能小幅提升，虽然海外宏 | | 投资咨询部 | | | | 周四 A 股市场涨势延续，创业板继续领涨，沪深两市成交额提 | | | | | | 升至 1.32（前值 1.18）万亿元。从行业来看，TMT、金融板块领 | | | | | | 涨，农林牧渔、商贸零售行业领跌。股指期货随现货走强，IC、IM | | | | | | 近月合约基差逐步修复，但远月合约仍处于深度贴水状态。 | | 张舒绮 | 联系人：房紫薇 | | | | | 从业资格： | 021-80220135 | | | | 震荡 | | | | | 观扰动频发，但国内市场依旧表现出稳定的经济和政策预期。昨晚 | | F3037345 | ...

| CTEERING | 日度策略参考 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 特给省调言:ZOOULI | 从业资格号:F0251925 | 行业板块 | 趋势研判 | 品种 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | 当前国内政策对股指的驱动力度不强,海外因素主导股指的短期 | 波动。鉴于关税政策的不确定性仍然较大,期指建议观望为主。 | | | | | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 国债 | 震荡 | 宏观金融 | 空间。 | | | | 避险升温提振金价;中长期上涨逻辑仍旧坚实。 | 看多 | 車金 | 跟随黄金,且受益于弹性,显著补涨。 | T 白银 | | | | 美国关税政策反复,风险偏好承压,但铜基本面仍有支撑,短期 | 震荡 | 价格高位震荡。总 | | | | | | 近期国内电解铝社会库存持续下滑,现货升水走高,电解铝低库 | 存对铝价仍有支撑。但亲观情绪反复,且国内铝下游需求转淡, | 開汤 | 铝价或震荡偏弱运行。 | | | | | 氧化铝现货价格持续走高,期货贴水明显, ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a rebound in April, with significant decline in volatility in May, and analysts expect a strong oscillation in June, focusing on liquidity, policy implementation, and economic expectations [1] - The A-share market currently exhibits a "strong reality, weak expectation" characteristic, with improved economic data due to policies like "two new, two heavy," "automobile replacement subsidies," and "consumption vouchers" [1] Economic Indicators - In Q1, the net profit growth rate for all A-shares excluding financials was 3.4%, reversing two years of negative growth, indicating clear fundamental support for the index [1] - However, internal demand remains insufficient, and asset price declines pose constraints on economic recovery [1] - April's PPI fell by 2.7% year-on-year, with a widening month-on-month decline, and recent social financing growth primarily relies on government debt issuance, with new RMB loan scales being relatively small [1] Future Outlook - The second quarter is expected to maintain basic data without significant decline, while the third quarter will be a critical period to validate the strength of economic recovery [1] - Previously announced government debt quotas may bottom out in Q3, with new policy measures likely to be introduced, making it a key period for index direction [1] Liquidity and Policy Measures - In May, the central bank implemented a series of monetary policies to provide ample liquidity to the market, with significant policies expected to be released by the Shanghai government during the 2025 Lujiazui Forum [2] - The economic data from April and May indicates that US-China trade tensions have not fundamentally impacted China's stable economic development, highlighting the resilience of the economy [2] Long-term Investment Trends - Policies are continuously guiding "long money, long investment," with ongoing updates on insurance fund long-term investment reform trials [3] - The inflow of "long money" is expected to stabilize the market and reduce stock market volatility, with public funds projected to increase their A-share holdings by at least 10% annually over the next three years [3] - The correlation between A-share valuations and medium to long-term RMB loans is significant, particularly for small-cap indices like the CSI 1000, which are notably influenced by liquidity [3] Investment Preferences - Long-term funds tend to have longer holding periods, lower capital costs, and place greater emphasis on the stability of equity assets, benefiting large-cap broad-based indices and dividend low-volatility themes [4]

| 可能原因 | 日度策略参 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布日期: 2025 | 从业资格号:F025174 | | | | | | 趋势研判 | 行业板块 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 品和 | 当前国内政策对股指的驱动力度不强,海外因素主导股指的短期 | 12 25 | | 波动。鉴于关税政策的不确定性仍然较大,期指建议观望为主。 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 国债 | 震荡 | 宏观金融 | | | 空间。 | 避险升温提振金价;中长期上涨逻辑仍旧坚实。 | 真金 | 看多 | | | | 跟随黄金,且受益于弹性,显著补涨。 | T 白银 | 有关 | 美国关税政策反复,风险偏好承压,但铜基本面仍有支撑,短期 | 震荡 | | | 价格高位震荡。总 | 近期国内电解铝社会库存持续下滑,现货升水走高,电解铝低库 | | | | | | 存对铝价仍有支撑,但随着铝价走高,上行空间变限,预计近期 | 震荡 | 震荡运行。 | | | | | 氧化铝现货价格持续走高,期货贴水明显,期货盘面价格下行动 ...