Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's latest meeting minutes show differences among members regarding future prospects, mainly due to different expectations of tax impacts on inflation. The initial jobless claims in the US have decreased for four consecutive weeks, reaching the lowest level in two months, while continuing claims remain at the highest level since the end of last year. Some Fed officials believe that two interest rate cuts within the year are most likely, and the impact of tariffs on prices is milder than expected, boosting market risk appetite. Domestically, tin smelters face raw material supply pressure, with the resumption of production in the Wa State of Myanmar still uncertain. Recently, tin prices have adjusted, and smelters are holding firm on prices, with few transactions. Traders' quotes follow the market, and the willingness of downstream buyers to take delivery has increased, with overall market trading performing well. Tin prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Report Summary - The Fed's meeting minutes reveal differences among members on future prospects, mainly due to different inflation expectations influenced by taxes. US initial jobless claims have dropped for four consecutive weeks, hitting a two - month low, while continuing claims are at a high since late last year. Some Fed officials see two potential rate cuts this year, and tariff impacts on prices are milder than expected, enhancing market risk preference. Domestically, tin smelters face raw material supply pressure, and the resumption in Myanmar's Wa State is uncertain. Tin prices have adjusted, smelters are holding prices, and trading is sluggish. Traders' quotes follow the market, and downstream buying interest has increased, with overall trading performing well [5]. Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors: The resumption rhythm of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State is still uncertain; overseas inventories have declined; the US dollar index remains at a low level [7]. - Bearish factors: The consumer end is in the industry's off - season, and the production schedule of photovoltaic modules has significantly decreased [7]. Data Analysis - **Supply and demand balance**: In April 2025, global refined tin production was 29,800 tons, consumption was 30,400 tons, with a supply shortage of 600 tons. From January to April 2025, production was 119,400 tons, consumption was 111,700 tons, with a supply surplus of 7,700 tons. In April 2025, global tin ore production was 27,600 tons, and from January to April, it was 103,700 tons [9]. - **Price and basis**: This week, tin futures prices remained volatile. The basis of Shanghai tin was - 1,810 yuan/ton, changing from premium to discount; the LME tin premium was 22.21 dollars/ton, changing from discount to premium [12]. - **Smelter operating rate**: Recently, the weekly operating rates of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi have been slightly rising. As of this week, the combined operating rate of the two provinces reached 53.97%. Yunnan smelters face tight tin ore supply, and although the operating rate rose slightly by 4.13% this week, it is still far below the level in Q4 2024. Jiangxi smelters rely on waste tin recycling, but poor terminal consumption has led to a decline in recycling volume and increased production costs. It is expected that the operating rates of smelters in the two regions will remain low in July [15]. - **Import data**: In May 2025, China's tin ore imports were 13,400 tons (equivalent to about 6,518 metal tons), a month - on - month increase of 36.39% and a year - on - year increase of 59.84%. From January to May, the cumulative import volume was 50,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 36.51%. In May, China's tin ingot imports were 2,076 tons, a month - on - month increase of 84.04% and a year - on - year increase of 225.9%. From January to May, the cumulative import volume was 9,584 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 38.48%. In May, refined tin exports were 1,770 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.19%. From January to May, the cumulative export volume was 9,584 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.48%, with imports and exports basically balanced [18][24]. - **Production data**: In May 2025, domestic refined tin production was 14,670 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.34%. From January to May, the cumulative production was 72,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.75%. It is expected that in June 2025, domestic refined tin production will be around 13,800 tons [21]. - **Automobile industry data**: In June 2025, China's new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.268 million and 1.329 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 26.4% and 26.7%. From January to June, production and sales were 6.968 million and 6.937 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 41.4% and 40.3%. In June, China's total automobile exports were 592,000, a month - on - month increase of 7.4% and a year - on - year increase of 22.2% [27]. - **Solder industry data**: In May, the solder operating rate was 72.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.1%. The operating rates of large, medium, and small solder enterprises all decreased [30]. - **Inventory data**: The latest LME tin inventory is 2,015 tons, reaching the lowest level in nearly two years. As of the week of July 4, Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory increased by 3.49% to 7,198 tons [34]. 后市研判 - Tin prices will maintain a volatile pattern [36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US imposing a 50% tariff on copper imports may lead to short - term adjustment risks for copper prices, and the US copper inventory may increase while non - US regions gradually become more relaxed. The end of the US restocking process is expected, and the previous non - US spot contradictions will gradually ease [10]. - Some Fed officials believe that there will likely be two interest rate cuts this year because the impact of tariffs on prices is more moderate than expected, which boosts market risk appetite [12]. - The tight supply at the mine end continues. The processing fees for copper concentrates remain at a low level, and supply disruptions in Peru support copper prices. Although the production of refined copper has increased slightly, demand is still weak, and inventory has accumulated [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - The US plans to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper starting from August 1. The initial jobless claims in the US have declined for four consecutive weeks, reaching the lowest level in two months, but the continuing claims are still at the highest level since the end of 2021 [5]. - Some Fed officials believe that there will likely be two interest rate cuts this year, as the impact of tariffs on prices is more moderate than expected, which boosts market risk appetite. The non - US spot contradictions will gradually ease [5]. - As of July 4, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 43.43 dollars per dry ton, up 0.06 dollars per dry ton from the previous week. The processing fees for copper concentrates have been hovering at a low level, and supply disruptions in Peru support copper prices. The estimated output of electrolytic copper has decreased slightly, and demand is weak [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus Bullish Factors - Some dovish Fed officials have spoken out, boosting market risk appetite. The domestic social copper inventory accumulation is limited, and the copper concentrate processing fees remain at a low level [8]. Bearish Factors - The US imposing a 50% tariff on copper imports will be implemented on August 1. The short - term copper price has adjustment risks, and the previous non - US spot contradictions will gradually ease [9][10]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Supply - side Data** - China's copper ore and concentrate imports in May were 2.3952 million tons, a 17.55% month - on - month decrease and a 6.61% year - on - year increase. The supplies from Chile and Peru have both declined, and the supply tension is difficult to ease [13]. - As of July 4, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 43.43 dollars per dry ton, up 0.06 dollars per dry ton from the previous week. The processing fees for copper concentrates have been hovering at a low level, and supply disruptions in Peru support copper prices [17]. - In May, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1417 million tons, a 2.93% month - on - month increase and a 16.33% year - on - year increase. It is estimated that the output in the second quarter will reach 3.3913 million tons, a 16.13% increase from the second quarter of 2024 [19]. - China's scrap copper imports in May were 185,200 tons, a 9.55% month - on - month decrease and a 6.53% year - on - year decrease. The supplies from Thailand, Japan, and the US have all declined [22]. - **Demand - side Data** - As of July 10, the refined - scrap copper price difference was around - 1015 yuan per ton, which is beneficial for refined copper consumption [26]. - In June, the domestic refined copper rod output was 811,300 tons, a 3.51% month - on - month decrease and a 7.47% year - on - year increase. The output of recycled copper rods was 215,500 tons, a 7.11% month - on - month increase [30]. - In June, the domestic copper plate and strip output was 202,800 tons, a 3.47% month - on - month decrease, lower than the same period last year [34]. - In June, China's new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.268 million and 1.329 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 26.4% and 26.7%. China's total automobile exports were 592,000, a 7.4% month - on - month increase and a 22.2% year - on - year increase [38]. - **Inventory and Price Difference Data** - LME copper inventory has stopped falling and rebounded, and the risk of a short squeeze has decreased. The copper inventory in SHFE and COMEX has increased, and the bonded - area copper inventory in Shanghai and Guangdong has also increased [42]. - On July 4, the spot premium of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 copper turned into a discount, and the LME 0 - 3 spot also changed from a large premium to a discount [46]. 3.4后市研判 - With the upcoming implementation of tariffs, the short - term adjustment risk continues. Attention should be paid to the support at the 77,000 integer level [49].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-7-10 关税及美联储分歧推动⾦价反弹 4）美国总统特朗普周二表示，美联储主席鲍威尔应立即辞职。 5）欧洲议会贸易委员会主席朗格（Bernd Lange）周三表示，欧盟可 能即将与美国达成贸易协议，但可能难以争取到立即减免关税和承诺 不出台新措施。 价格逻辑： 金价下破3300美元后反弹，主要因为美联储会议纪要显示美联储内部 对于经济前瞻存在分歧，特朗普公布新关税政策。 基本面上，美联储方面，6月会议纪要显示，政策制定者指出，对于 关税对通胀潜在影响的时间、规模和持续性存在"相当大的不确定 性"。由于关税在经济中的传导路径及贸易谈判的不同结果，官员们 对其通胀影响持不同观点。 关税方面，美国总统特朗普宣布将对12国加征25%-40%关税，并对所 有金砖国家商品额外征10%关税，尽管"对等关税"最后谈判期限延 至8月1日暂时支撑美元，但整体贸易战风险仍挥之不去。此外，自8 月1日起，美国将对菲律宾产品征收20%的关税，对文莱和摩尔多瓦征 25%关税，对阿尔及利亚、伊拉克、利比亚和斯里兰卡征30%关税。 特朗普公布的对巴西新征 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a gradual upward trend, with a notable recovery in market risk appetite, approaching the 3500-point mark, supported by a low interest rate environment and expectations of policy stimulus [1][2]. Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market has shown a broad-based rally, with over 4200 stocks rising, indicating a strong profit-making effect and increased trading volume [3]. - The market's upward movement is a response to the U.S. adjusting tariff rates for 14 countries, reflecting a desensitization to tariff impacts [1]. - Key sectors leading the gains include telecommunications, power equipment, electronics, and construction materials, while banking and utilities experienced declines [3]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a slow upward trajectory due to low interest rates and a recovering risk appetite, particularly in high-risk sectors like non-bank finance, media, and military industry [1]. - July is anticipated to be driven by event-based themes, with potential high-low sector rotations, particularly in consumer goods and robotics, as well as semiconductor localization trends [2]. - The innovation drug sector is projected to reach a turning point in fundamentals by 2025, following a period of adjustment [2].

日度报告——综合晨报 特朗普称 8 月 1 日加征关税不会延期，且威 胁对铜加税 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-07-09 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 特朗普放话称 8 月 1 日关税最后期限不会延期 特朗普表态关税期限不会延期，这使得市场风险偏好受到一定 影响，市场预期有所变化， 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 特朗普称将实施 50%铜关税、药品和半导体关税在望 行业关税压力加大，与日本、欧盟谈判不确定性仍存，美股盘 中窄幅震荡。 综 农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油） 合 印度尼西亚：受关税威胁影响 对美国棕榈油出口预计下滑 晨 消息面扰动频发，棕榈油大幅增产上行 报 黑色金属（铁矿石） Ferrexpo 二季度铁矿石生产承压运行 尽管工业品情况较高，但黑色现实基本面压力下难以推动大幅 反弹。进入淡季之后，终端钢坯和长材累库速度有所加快。短 期矿价维持震荡，关注焦煤估值修复力度。 有色金属（多晶硅） 今日市场多晶硅预期价格大幅上调 政策端博弈性强，操作风险高，建议观望。 | 黄玉萍 | 资深分析师 | （农产品） | | --- | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： [Table_Ana ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, in the short - term, it is expected to decline; in the medium - term, it will fluctuate; and the intraday view is weakly fluctuating, with a suggestion of waiting and seeing. For copper, in the short - term and medium - term, it is expected to rise; and the intraday view is strongly fluctuating, with a short - term bullish outlook [1] Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold - Short - term view: decline; medium - term view: fluctuation; intraday view: weakly fluctuating; reference view: wait and see. Core logic: US non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, leading to a stronger dollar and putting pressure on gold prices. Meanwhile, the decline in market risk appetite since last Friday and the high - level adjustment of US stocks increased short - term safe - haven demand for gold, providing support for gold prices [1][3] Copper - Short - term and medium - term view: rise; intraday view: strongly fluctuating; reference view: short - term bullish. Core logic: Last week, the macro environment cooled, the US interest - rate cut expectation decreased, and tariff concerns increased, causing copper prices to fall. On Monday, copper prices continued to decline with reduced positions. On the industrial side, supply is expected to decrease due to smelter losses and policy expectations, and demand is strong but marginally declining. Technically, attention should be paid to the 20 - day moving average support [1][5]

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250704 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：6 月美国非农大超预期，"大而美"法案过关待签署 海外方面，美国 6 月非农新增就业 14.7 万人，连续四月超预期，4-5 月合计上修 1.6 万 人；失业率意外降至 4.1%，平均时薪环比放缓至 0.2%，市场基本消化 7 月不降息，风险偏 好再度打开，美股齐涨，10Y 美债利率回升至 4.34%，金价下跌。然而从结构上看仍存隐忧： 6 月非农新增岗位中近半数来自政府部门，私营部门就业增长依旧疲弱，与此前爆冷的 ADP 就业数据（私营部门）相呼应。美国"大美丽"法案仍在众议院险些过关，特朗普预计将于 周六清晨正式签署。 国内方面，A 股缩量上涨，两市成交额回落至 1.33 万亿，风格上创业板、深证成指表 现占优，行业上电子、生物科技领涨，美越关税协议落地、对华科技制裁放松，均有助于修 复市场风险偏好。在内需乏力、物价依旧偏低迷的背景下，供给侧优化正逐步落地并加快推 进，工信部：依法整治光伏 ...

宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 7 月 4 日） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 美非农就业高于预期，美元反弹， 铜价承压 | | 铜 | 2508 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 短线看强 | 宏观风险偏好回升，铜价上行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 观点参考 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：昨日夜盘沪金低开震荡运行。美国非农就业高于市场 ...

Group 1 - The divergence between the ADP employment data and non-farm payroll data in June indicates a potential shift in the Federal Reserve's policy direction, with the ADP data unexpectedly contracting [3] - The non-farm payroll data for June showed a seasonally adjusted increase of 147,000 jobs, significantly exceeding market expectations, which diminishes the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July [4] - The market is now shifting its expectations for a potential rate cut to September, as the strong non-farm data suggests continued high interest rates [4] Group 2 - Despite the Federal Reserve's reluctance to cut rates, the U.S. stock market continues to rise, with indices like the Nasdaq and S&P 500 reaching historical highs, indicating a strong market performance [5] - The high interest rate environment may lead investors to prefer U.S. Treasury securities over equities, as the average dividend yield of listed companies rarely exceeds Treasury yields [5] - The recovery of the stock market after a significant decline earlier in the year suggests a strong rebound, although uncertainties remain regarding the Federal Reserve's future actions [6] Group 3 - The stock market's ability to recover quickly from earlier losses may be attributed to the influence of major technology companies and the resolution of issues like the debt ceiling, which positively affects market risk appetite [5][6] - The market's valuation levels have increased again, raising concerns about the return of valuation bubbles, while the underlying risks remain unaddressed [6] - The ongoing speculation about the Federal Reserve's rate decisions continues to drive market behavior, with potential volatility if unexpected events occur [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, PE, PVC [1] - **Bearish**: Silver, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Carbonate Lithium, Cotton, Pulp, Logs, Natural Rubber, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Styrene, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Gold, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Carbonate Lithium, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coke, Sinter, Ferroalloy, Glass, Soda Ash, Bitumen, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, PE, PP, PVC, Chlor - Alkali [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, market trading volume is gradually shrinking, and with mediocre domestic and foreign positive factors, the stock index faces resistance in breaking upward and may show an oscillating pattern. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank's short - term interest - rate risk warning restricts the upward space. The price of gold is supported by factors such as renewed tariff uncertainties and the passage of the US tax - reform bill in the Senate, but the slowdown of the US dollar index decline requires vigilance against the suppression of the gold price by a staged rebound. The macro and commodity attributes support the silver price, but the fundamentals limit its upside. Copper prices are strong in the short term due to the recovery of market risk appetite and the fermentation of the squeeze - out situation of US copper and LME copper. Aluminum prices are strong due to the low - level operation of electrolytic aluminum inventories and the improvement of market risk appetite. The overall market sentiment has improved, and attention should be paid to the progress of tariffs and changes in domestic and foreign economic data [1]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Short - term upward breakthrough is difficult, may oscillate, and follow - up focus on macro incremental information [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term upward space is restricted by interest - rate risk warning [1] - **Gold**: Supported by tariff uncertainties and tax - reform bill, but beware of the impact of the US dollar index rebound [1] - **Silver**: Supported by macro and commodity attributes, but limited by fundamentals [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Strong in the short term due to risk - appetite recovery and squeeze - out situation [1] - **Aluminum**: Strong due to low inventory and improved market sentiment [1] - **Alumina**: Maintains a strong operation [1] - **Zinc**: Affected by news in the short term, beware of risks in short - selling [1] - **Nickel**: Rebounds in the short term but limited upside, long - term surplus pressure exists [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Short - term oscillating rebound, long - term supply pressure remains [1] - **Tin**: Rebounds due to improved macro sentiment, follow - up focus on imports [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Bullish due to production cuts and high market sentiment [1] - **Polysilicon**: Bullish due to supply - side reform expectations and high market sentiment [1] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Oscillates due to stable supply and weak downstream procurement [1] Black Metals - **Rebar**: Oscillates due to short - term factory production restrictions [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Oscillates due to short - term factory production restrictions [1] - **Iron Ore**: Oscillates with limited upside due to factory production restrictions and high short - term demand [1] - **Sinter**: Price is under pressure due to increased short - term production and weakening demand [1] - **Ferroalloy**: Excess pressure remains due to cost and demand factors [1] - **Glass**: Supply is stable in the short term, demand is resilient, but medium - term supply - demand surplus exists [1] - **Soda Ash**: Supply is disturbed, but demand is weak, and cost support is weakened [1] - **Coke**: Similar to coking coal, focus on futures premium for selling hedging [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Bullish in the short term, follow - up focus on hearings and supply - demand reports [1] - **Soybean Oil**: Similar to palm oil [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Similar to palm oil [1] - **Cotton**: Expected to oscillate weakly, affected by trade negotiations and weather in the short term, and macro uncertainties in the long term [1] - **Sugar**: Brazilian production is expected to increase, and pay attention to the impact of crude oil on the sugar - production ratio [1] - **Corn**: Expected to oscillate, with limited decline in the futures market, and C01 can be shorted at high prices [1] - **Soybean Meal**: Near - term inventory is expected to accumulate, and MO1 can be bought at low prices [1] - **Pulp**: Bearish due to falling prices, increased shipments, and weak domestic demand [1] - **Logs**: Weak due to off - season and limited supply decline [1] - **Live Pigs**: Futures are stable due to the continued recovery of inventory and limited decline in spot prices [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Oscillates due to geopolitical cooling, possible OPEC+ production increase, and consumption - season support [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Similar to crude oil [1] - **Asphalt**: Bearish due to cost drag, possible tax - refund increase, and slow demand recovery [1] - **Natural Rubber**: Bearish due to weakening demand, expected production increase, and inventory increase [1] - **BR Rubber**: Weak in the short term, follow - up focus on price adjustments and de - stocking progress [1] - **PTA**: Oscillates due to weakening basis, delayed plant maintenance, and strong PX floating [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Bearish due to large expected arrivals and negative macro - sentiment impact [1] - **Short - Fiber**: Oscillates, with low warehouse - receipt registration and cost following closely [1] - **Styrene**: Bearish due to weakening speculative demand, increased device load, and strong basis [1] - **PE**: Oscillates strongly due to good macro - sentiment, many overhauls, and rigid demand [1] - **PP**: Oscillates strongly due to limited overhaul support, rigid orders, and market sentiment [1] - **PVC**: Oscillates strongly due to policy support, upcoming new - device production, and seasonal demand changes [1] - **Chlor - Alkali**: Oscillates, follow - up focus on liquid - chlorine changes [1] - **LPG**: Bearish due to price cuts, seasonal demand decline, and narrow price difference [1] - **Container Shipping European Line**: Expected to peak in mid - July, with sufficient subsequent capacity [1]