Core Viewpoint - The market experienced a downward adjustment in early trading, with all three major indices declining, and the CSI A500 index falling by 1.56% [1]. Market Performance - In the market, sectors such as batteries and semiconductors saw collective adjustments, while the focus shifted to electric grid equipment, nuclear power, and military industries [2]. - As of the morning close, ETFs tracking the CSI A500 index dropped over 1%, with 13 related ETFs having transaction volumes exceeding 100 million yuan, and 4 surpassing 2.9 billion yuan. The transaction volumes for A500 ETF fund, CSI A500 ETF, and A500 ETF Huatai-PB were 3.748 billion yuan, 3.214 billion yuan, and 2.986 billion yuan respectively [2]. Economic Outlook - A brokerage firm indicated that with the Federal Reserve initiating a rate-cutting cycle in October, the global liquidity environment is expected to become more accommodative, which may broaden the operational space for domestic monetary policy. This has led to increased market expectations for subsequent easing measures from the central bank, potentially boosting market risk appetite [2]. - However, the increasing congestion in previously popular sectors may heighten short-term market volatility risks. Based on this assessment, a balanced investment strategy incorporating both growth and value styles is recommended [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the federal government shutdown has disrupted official economic data, leading to average market demand and rising US bond yields. The weakening yen has strengthened the US dollar, cooling global risk appetite. The first - stage cease - fire in Gaza has reduced global risk - aversion. Domestically, poor US economic data during the National Day holiday has increased expectations of a Fed rate cut, causing global stock markets to rise. The central bank's large - scale MLF renewal has ensured market liquidity, and the introduction of multiple industry growth - stabilizing plans has increased policy support, potentially boosting domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened, and future focus should be on Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies [3][4]. - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks are expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term; bonds will oscillate; among commodities, black metals will oscillate, non - ferrous metals will oscillate strongly, energy and chemicals will oscillate, and precious metals will oscillate strongly at a high level [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas: The federal government shutdown has disrupted economic data, resulting in average demand and rising US bond yields. The weakening yen has strengthened the US dollar, cooling global risk appetite. The Gaza cease - fire has reduced risk - aversion [3]. - Domestic: Poor US economic data during the National Day holiday has increased Fed rate - cut expectations, leading to a rise in global stock markets. The central bank's MLF renewal has ensured liquidity, and industry growth - stabilizing plans have increased policy support, potentially boosting domestic risk appetite [3][4]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as precious metals, industrial metals, and rare earths, the domestic stock market has risen significantly. Supported by factors like US economic data and domestic policies, the short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened. Short - term cautious buying is recommended [4]. Black Metals Steel - On Thursday, the domestic steel futures and spot markets rebounded slightly, with low trading volumes. The rise of overseas non - ferrous and precious metals during the holiday has boosted market risk appetite. However, real demand is weak, with a 127 - million - ton increase in the inventory of five major steel products during the holiday, exceeding the five - year average. After late October, demand may further weaken. Supply is expected to remain high as steel mills' profits are still acceptable, and the logic of compressing steel mill profits will continue. The steel market is likely to oscillate within a range [5]. Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures and spot prices continued to strengthen. The news of long - term contract negotiations has increased expectations of supply contraction. Ore demand remains strong as the daily average pig iron output is above 2.4 million tons. During the holiday, global iron ore shipments decreased by 1.96 million tons, while arrivals increased by 2.482 million tons, and port inventories increased by 1.69 million tons. Although the market's expectation of negative feedback in the industrial chain has increased, the short - term probability of actual negative feedback is low as the proportion of profitable steel mills is over 56%. Iron ore prices will oscillate within a range after the holiday, with negative feedback risks from late October to November [6][7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - LME copper has broken through and risen due to concerns about tight global copper supply. An accident at the Grasberg mine has affected production by 270,000 tons, with a plan to resume production in mid - 2026 and fully recover in 2027. Domestic electrolytic copper production remains high, with a 11.62% year - on - year increase in September, but demand is facing challenges as previous demand - boosting factors weaken. Copper de - stocking has not met expectations, and the US economic situation needs to be monitored [8]. Aluminum - It was previously expected that SHFE aluminum would stabilize and oscillate within a 200 - 300 - point range, which has basically come true. During the holiday, the rise in copper prices has boosted aluminum prices, but on Thursday, SHFE aluminum underperformed, and the domestic - foreign price difference has decreased significantly. Domestic aluminum social inventories have accumulated during the holiday, exceeding expectations. With rigid supply and weakening demand, it is difficult for prices to rise significantly [8][9]. Tin - LME tin has soared due to the rise in copper prices and Indonesia's crackdown on illegal tin mining, but the upward space is limited. The price is supported by tight ore supply and low smelting operating rates due to maintenance at a large Yunnan smelter. However, smelters are expected to resume production in October, and ore supply will increase after November. Prices are expected to remain high in the short term but face upward pressure [9]. Carbonate Lithium - On Thursday, the main carbonate lithium 2511 contract rose 0.27%, with a settlement price of 73,700 yuan/ton. The weighted contract increased positions by 1,559 lots, with a total position of 677,900 lots. The supply and demand of carbonate lithium are both increasing, with strong seasonal demand, a slight reduction in social inventory, and a transfer of smelter inventory to downstream. The market is expected to oscillate, and the upper pressure range should be monitored [10]. Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, the main industrial silicon 2511 contract fell 0.29%, with a settlement price of 8,645 yuan/ton. The weighted contract increased positions by 8,057 lots, with a total position of 407,800 lots. The 2511 contract faces the pressure of digesting warehouse receipts at the end of November. The market is expected to oscillate, and the cash - flow cost support of large enterprises should be monitored [10]. Polysilicon - On Thursday, the main polysilicon 2511 contract had a 0% increase, with a settlement price of 50,185 yuan/ton. The weighted contract increased positions by 7,663 lots, with a total position of 234,000 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is increasing, and there will be concentrated cancellations in November. With high supply and low demand, the market is waiting for the implementation of state - reserve purchase news, and the support of spot prices should be monitored [11]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - After Israel reached an agreement with Hamas on hostage release and implemented a cease - fire, crude oil prices have declined as OPEC+ increases supply and demand lacks new positive signals. The strengthening of the US dollar has also reduced the attractiveness of dollar - denominated commodities [12]. Asphalt - As crude oil prices decline again, asphalt shows signs of breaking through the lower limit. The peak - season demand is almost over, and the pressure of over - supply remains. The basis is still falling, and there is some pressure for social inventory accumulation, while factory inventory is slightly increasing. The profit has recovered recently, and the operating rate has increased significantly. The impact of OPEC+ production increase on crude oil prices and the support of crude oil prices should be monitored [12][13]. PX - The change in PX is limited. The previous changes in Xinjiang's facilities have little impact on the market. The cost support from crude oil remains, but the small positive impact of increased maintenance plans has been mostly priced in. The PXN spread has decreased to $218, and the external PX price has fallen to $804. PTA's short - term processing fee has been squeezed, and PX remains in a tight supply situation. With the decline of the polyester market, PX may oscillate weakly but has some support at the bottom [13]. PTA - The peak - season demand is lower than expected, with low terminal orders and low operating rates of looms. The rumor of production cuts by leading PTA manufacturers has been disproven, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. There is also a possibility that the restart of maintenance facilities will be postponed. The market has some support at the previous low but faces long - term downward pressure [13]. Ethylene Glycol - The price of ethylene glycol continues to decline and oscillates at a low level. Similar to PTA, it faces challenges in downstream demand, with high short - term operating rates and new production capacity pressure. Although the current inventory is low, there is a risk of inventory accumulation, and the upward space for price rebound is limited in the medium term [13]. LLDPE - The polyethylene market price has adjusted. The LLDPE transaction price is 7,050 - 7,600 yuan/ton, with prices in the North and East regions falling. Supply is increasing, and the demand is in the peak season, but the post - holiday inventory accumulation suppresses prices. With new capacity coming on - line, the transition to the off - season, and the decline of crude oil prices, the price of PE is expected to decline [14]. Urea - The urea market is weakly declining. The supply - demand situation is under pressure. During the National Day holiday, most factories maintained stable prices, fulfilling previous orders. After the holiday, production is expected to remain above 190,000 tons per day. The agricultural demand recovery is slow due to rainfall, and industrial demand is weak. Although there is potential support from reserve demand and Indian tenders, the overall support is limited. The price may decline slightly in the short term, and the export policy after the holiday should be monitored [14][15]. Methanol - The methanol market in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia has acceptable trading. The price in Inner Mongolia's northern line has decreased by 10 - 15 yuan/ton, and the southern line is stable. In Jiangsu, the methanol market has declined, and the basis has strengthened. After the holiday, methanol inventory has accumulated, and the high port inventory suppresses prices. There is no effective way to reduce inventory in the short term, but it is expected to oscillate weakly with support from domestic and foreign gas - restriction expectations. Opportunities for long - term long positions should be awaited [14]. PP - The market trading atmosphere is good, with the mainstream price of East China's drawn wire at 6,650 - 6,750 yuan/ton. The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina's polyolefins has increased by 270,000 tons. With increasing supply pressure, average downstream demand, and increasing inventory pressure, combined with the weakening of crude oil prices, the price of PP is expected to decline [14]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The prospects of Sino - US soybean trade and the MFP program will be the main focus of the oil - and - oilseed market. After the holiday, the market may re - evaluate the possibility of China resuming US soybean imports. If a phased arrangement is reached in the coming weeks, the possibility of resuming trade will increase. The implementation of the MFP program will reduce farmers' holding costs and relieve the pressure of grain sales and storage, which is positive for CBOT soybeans [16]. Hogs - After the holiday, the demand for hogs will weaken, and the supply - demand pressure remains high. Attention should be paid to farmers' reluctance to sell at low prices, local pork purchase - and - storage dynamics, and the rhythm of passive production reduction [17]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The expected supply - demand gap of domestic soybeans in the first quarter of next year will shrink, which is negative for soybean meal. In the short term, the phased replenishment of soybean meal may increase, and the cost support for near - month soybean meal will strengthen as the pressure of concentrated US soybean listing eases. The spread between near - and far - month contracts may widen. For rapeseed meal, the seasonal impact on imported rapeseed meal has significantly shrunk, and domestic rapeseed inventory is running out. Before the arrival of Australian rapeseed, the supply - demand of rapeseed meal is weak, and its market is mainly led by soybean meal [18]. Oils - Oils may oscillate strongly, with the order of strength being rapeseed oil > palm oil > soybean oil. Rapeseed oil inventory will be depleted rapidly before the arrival of Australian rapeseed, providing support. Palm oil is mainly driven by cost, with low inventory in the producing areas, stable crude oil prices, and strong related oils providing additional support. Soybean oil may experience seasonal inventory accumulation after the holiday and may perform relatively weakly [18]. Corn - The room for the price decline of new corn in the Northeast after the holiday may be limited. The increase in corn prices in Shandong provides support, as deep - processing enterprises unexpectedly raised prices during the holiday, and the demand for acquisition has increased. More acquisition entities will enter the market after the holiday. In addition, the rapid rebound of wheat prices in October will also support the corn market [18].

Group 1 - The market is currently focused on the Federal Reserve's statements and the September meeting minutes, with significant implications for commodities and RMB assets due to China's financial data and central bank liquidity operations [1][2] - Key upcoming events include speeches from Federal Reserve officials and the release of important economic data, which are expected to drive short-term trading strategies [1][2] - The trading environment is characterized by high volatility and risk, necessitating careful position management and confirmation of market signals before making trading decisions [3][4] Group 2 - Gold prices are expected to be influenced by the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes and officials' comments, particularly regarding interest rate paths, which will affect market risk appetite and the USD [1][2] - The performance of the US dollar is primarily driven by the Federal Reserve's statements, while Canadian employment data will directly impact the Canadian dollar [2] - Oil demand expectations are significantly influenced by China's financial data, and the Baker Hughes rig count provides insights into supply-side dynamics [2][3]

Group 1 - The U.S. federal government shutdown, occurring for the first time in seven years, is expected to negatively impact the economy, including U.S. import and export trade, and investment, shaking corporate confidence in the U.S. market [1][6] - Key financial regulatory agencies, including the SEC and CFTC, have placed most of their staff on unpaid leave, leading to a suspension of IPO applications and delays in the listing process for many companies, which could harm investor sentiment [3][5] - The shutdown is likely to exacerbate existing concerns in global asset markets, with investors shifting capital towards safe-haven assets like gold, potentially leading to price increases in these commodities [3][5] Group 2 - During the shutdown, customs operations will continue, but many technical staff will be on unpaid leave, causing delays in new certifications, approvals, and background checks, which will complicate import and export licensing for traders [5][6] - The absence of timely economic data releases, including employment and price data, will create uncertainty for foreign companies operating in the U.S. market, further amplifying global economic insecurity [6] - Historical data indicates that during the last shutdown in 2018, delays in food and beverage import/export procedures led to significant losses for traders, with cargo dwell times at major ports increasing by 15% to 20% [5][6]

Group 1 - Market focus is on Trump's new tariffs, key US economic data, and commodity volatility, with investors observing the Federal Reserve's actions and risk sentiment [1] - Electronic Arts saw a significant increase of approximately 15% due to acquisition rumors, sparking speculation and merger interest in the gaming sector [10] - Boeing's stock rose by around 4% following reports that the FAA may ease some production restrictions on the 737 MAX and 787 aircraft, improving delivery prospects [10] - NIO's stock declined by about 6% due to ongoing losses and pricing pressures in the Chinese electric vehicle market, overshadowing optimistic policy support [10] Group 2 - The market is digesting the tariffs announced by Trump, with investors seeking clarity on whether the new taxes will be broadly applicable or subject to trade agreement exemptions [10] - Upcoming macro data, including key US inflation (PCE), consumer confidence, and manufacturing data, will test market confidence in the Federal Reserve's next steps [10] - Risk appetite appears cautious ahead of the US inflation data release, with the VIX remaining firm above recent lows as traders process policy and tariff uncertainties [10]

Group 1 - The A-share market opened lower on September 26, with the ChiNext Index down 0.42%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.38%, and the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.35% [1] - The MSCI China A50 Connect Index, which represents core leading assets, fell approximately 0.8% during the session, with leading stocks such as China Merchants Shekou, BYD, and China National Nuclear Power leading the decline [1] - The margin trading balance has been steadily increasing since last September, surpassing 2 trillion yuan on August 5 this year and remaining above this threshold for 37 consecutive trading days, with the balance exceeding 2.4 trillion yuan for the last three days [1] Group 2 - According to a report by Founder Securities, the continuous new highs in margin trading balance reflect an increase in market risk appetite, indicating a relatively loose liquidity environment in the A-share market [1] - Although the absolute scale of the margin trading balance has exceeded that of 2015, its proportion relative to the circulating market value and trading volume remains at historical mid-levels since 2016 [1] - The A50 ETF (159601) closely tracks the MSCI China A50 Connect Index, providing a packaged investment in 50 leading interconnected assets, making it a preferred choice for domestic and foreign funds [1]

Market Overview - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant downturn, with major cryptocurrencies like BTC, ETH, and DOGE showing notable declines in price over the past 24 hours [1][2]. Price Movements - Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at $113,023.9, down by 2.32% - Ethereum (ETH) is priced at $4,171.16, down by 6.92% - Dogecoin (DOGE) is priced at $0.23998, down by 10.68% - Other notable declines include SOL at $224.12 (-6.82%), XRP at $2.802 (-6.78%), and BNB at $1,017.21 (-5.26%) [2]. Liquidation Data - Over the past 24 hours, approximately 406,205 traders were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $1.678 billion. Long positions accounted for $1.595 billion, while short positions totaled $83.435 million [5][6]. - The liquidation heatmap indicates that the majority of liquidations involved ETH ($477 million) and BTC ($282 million) [6][7]. Regulatory Impact - The European Union is considering actions against Russia's financial evasion strategies, which may include sanctions on cryptocurrency platforms and related transactions [7]. - This regulatory scrutiny could further impact market sentiment and trading activities within the cryptocurrency sector [7]. Market Sentiment - Analysts suggest that Bitcoin is under heavy selling pressure without clear catalysts, and it has recently tested a critical support level of $111,900, which has previously led to price rebounds [8]. - Concurrently, the gold market reached a historical high, with London gold prices surpassing $3,715 per ounce, indicating a shift in investor preference towards safer assets amid market volatility [9].

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Weekly Report - Date: September 22, 2025 - Main Theme: Interest rate cuts did not exceed expectations, and copper prices oscillated and adjusted [1] Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core View - Last week, copper prices declined from high levels. The main reason was that the Fed's interest rate cut in September did not exceed expectations. Market risk appetite declined, and the US dollar index rebounded, pressuring the metal market. Fundamentally, overseas mine interference rates continued to rise, the domestic consumption peak season arrived, and new scrap copper tax policies hindered domestic production release. The social inventory turned downward, and the near - month contract shifted to a Back structure. - The market has fully priced in the expectation of 2 - 3 interest rate cuts this year. Some overseas fund long positions took profits. Powell indicated no need to start a large - scale easing cycle, causing market risk appetite to decline and the US dollar to rebound, pressuring the metal sector. Domestically, the capital market sentiment was high. Fundamentally, overseas mine interference rates continued to rise, refined copper production was expected to decline, and the domestic tight - balance structure would intensify. Short - term copper prices were expected to oscillate and adjust [2][10] Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - **Contract Prices**: LME copper decreased from $10,064.50/ton to $9,996.50/ton, a decline of 0.68%; COMEX copper dropped from 464.8 cents/pound to 463.05 cents/pound, a decline of 0.38%; SHFE copper fell from 81,060 yuan/ton to 79,850 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.49%; international copper decreased from 72,030 yuan/ton to 70,810 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.69%. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.05 to 7.99 [3] - **Inventory**: As of September 19, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area rose to 646,720 tons. LME copper inventory decreased by 6,300 tons (4.09%); COMEX inventory increased by 6,287 short - tons (2.02%); SHFE inventory increased by 11,760 tons (12.51%); Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased by 500 tons (0.65%) [6] 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Price Fluctuation Reasons**: The Fed's interest rate cut in September did not exceed expectations, which alleviated market concerns about the Fed's independence, causing market risk appetite to decline and the US dollar to rebound, pressuring the metal market. Fundamentally, overseas mine interference rates continued to rise, the domestic consumption peak season arrived, new scrap copper tax policies hindered domestic production release, and the social inventory turned downward [2][7] - **Inventory Status**: As of September 19, the global inventory continued to rise slightly. LME copper inventory decreased, and the cancellation warrant ratio dropped to 9.75%; SHFE inventory increased but remained at a low level; Shanghai bonded area inventory was basically flat. The LME inventory shifted from accumulation to depletion, while the US copper inventory continued to increase. The Shanghai - London ratio dropped below 8 [7] - **Macro - situation**: The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4% - 4.25%. The latest dot - plot showed that there might be another 50 - basis - point cut this year and 25 - basis - point cuts in 2026 and 2027. Domestically, in August, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and from January to August, the cumulative profit growth was 6.2% [7][8] - **Supply and Demand**: Overseas mine interference rates continued to rise, and refined copper production was expected to decline. The new scrap copper tax policy hindered domestic production release. On the demand side, power grid investment projects started, the copper cable industry's operating rate returned to about 80%, and the new energy vehicle industry was approaching the peak season. The domestic tight - balance structure intensified, and the near - month contract price continued to rise, shifting the structure back to Back [2][9][10] 3. Industry News - Anglo American and Codelco signed an agreement to jointly operate adjacent mines in central Chile, which is expected to release at least $5 billion in value and produce an additional 2.7 million tons of copper in 21 years [11] - Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia has been suspended due to a mud - flow accident. The long - term suspension may lead to continuously high copper prices. The global copper smelting industry has been facing a serious shortage of concentrates this year [12] 4. Related Charts - The report provides 18 charts, including the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, inventory changes in LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area, copper basis, spread, and other data, with data sources from iFinD and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [15][17][23]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points (BP) to a range of 4.00%-4.25% aligns with market expectations, indicating potential for two more rate cuts by 2025, which enhances market risk appetite and may lead to short-term pressure on gold prices [1][2][3] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates is expected to ease recession fears in the U.S., as recent economic data shows improvement, including better-than-expected retail sales and a decrease in initial jobless claims [2] - The Fed's updated dot plot suggests two additional rate cuts by 2025, totaling approximately 50 BP, which could further influence market dynamics [3] Group 2: Precious Metals - The recent rate cut is likely to result in short-term fluctuations in gold prices, as market participants take profits amid rising risk appetite [2][3] - Despite short-term pressures, long-term prospects for gold remain positive due to ongoing U.S. government debt risks and challenges to the dollar's status, suggesting potential for sustained performance in the gold market [2] Group 3: Industrial Metals - The industrial metals sector is expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics, with rising processing rates for copper and aluminum as the market enters a traditional peak season [3] - Increased domestic policy flexibility and a favorable macroeconomic environment, coupled with supply-side disruptions, are likely to strengthen the industrial metals market, presenting a good opportunity for investment [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points (BP) to a range of 4.00%-4.25% aligns with market expectations, indicating potential for two more rate cuts by 2025, which is favorable for market sentiment and may lead to a short-term pressure on gold prices [1][2] Economic Analysis - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower rates is expected to enhance liquidity in the market, while domestic policy space is also widening, creating a favorable environment for industrial metals [1][2] - Recent economic data from the U.S. shows improvement, with retail sales exceeding expectations and a decline in initial jobless claims, reducing fears of a recession [2] Precious Metals - The gold price may experience short-term fluctuations due to profit-taking by some investors and an increase in market risk appetite, despite the long-term potential for gold driven by ongoing U.S. government debt risks and challenges to the dollar's status [2] Industrial Metals - The supply-demand dynamics for industrial metals are strengthening, with increased processing rates for copper and aluminum as the market enters a traditional peak season, alongside rising pre-holiday inventory demands [1][2] - The recent rate cut and anticipated further cuts are expected to support industrial metal prices, while supply-side disruptions are likely to enhance the supply-demand balance [2]