有色金属周报(氧化铝与电解铝及铝合金) 美联储9/12月降息预期概率有所升高 国内传统消费淡季特征渐趋显现 www.hongyuanqh.com 2025年06月17日 宏源期货 研究所 金属研究团队 王文虎（F03087656，Z0019472） 董晓妮（F0287405，Z0017234） 张蕾（F03086068，Z0019377） 氧化铝 山西多数矿和河南露天矿仍未复采，几内亚政府撤销部分企业采矿权或要求部分运行企业停产，广西 计划开展非法采矿和涉重金属污染倒查十年专项行动，使国产和澳洲(几内亚)铝土矿价格环比持平(上涨)， 或使国内铝土矿6月生产(进口)量环比减少(减少)但难改供需预期偏松； 山东创源三期和广西华晟二期100与200万吨氧化铝产能已建成并部分投产，山西晋中100万吨氧化铝产 能节能增效改造项目2月底开工且建设工期14个月，广西防城港25年3月开始建设2条120万吨氧化铝产能且 总工期为8个月，或使中国氧化铝6月生产量环比增加，中国氧化铝日度平均完全生产成本为2880元/吨左 右； 南山铝业旗下印尼宾坦氧化铝三期项目100万吨产能5月上旬开启 试生产且预计25年实现满产（届时氧 化铝产 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 棉花(纱)产业日报 2025-06-12 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 态，盈利空间也持续不佳，直接影响了企业对原材料的采购意愿，在原料采购策略上表现得格外谨慎，仅 根据实际生产需求补充库存。中美贸易关系缓和，市场对贸易前景乐观情绪提振价格短期震荡偏强，但是 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 消费淡季，去库存速度缓慢，上方空间或受限。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13520 | -20 棉纱 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The easing of Sino - US trade relations boosts market optimism about trade prospects, causing prices to be short - term volatile and slightly stronger. However, it is the consumption off - season in the textile industry, with slow inventory reduction and limited upside potential [2]. - The textile industry shows characteristics of the consumption off - season. New orders are poor, summer orders have limited growth, and most are short - term, small - scale orders. Some enterprises reduce shifts, and the overall operating rate is slowly decreasing. Some spinning mills are in a state of inventory accumulation, with poor profit margins, which affects their raw material procurement willingness [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 13,540 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price is 19,750 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [2]. - Cotton futures' top 20 net positions are - 42,217 lots, down 4,474 lots; cotton yarn futures' top 20 net positions are - 58 lots, down 123 lots [2]. - Cotton main contract positions are 545,791 lots, up 7,234 lots; cotton yarn main contract positions are 18,448 lots, up 2,365 lots [2]. - Cotton warehouse receipts are 10,794 sheets, down 21 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 2 sheets, unchanged [2]. - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 14,784 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 20,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 现货市场 - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,656 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 21,899 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan [2]. - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) is 14,389 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count) is 23,776 yuan/ton, up 92 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6160 thousand tons, up 540 thousand tons [2]. - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,516 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan; the industrial inventory of cotton nationwide is 833 thousand tons, down 31 thousand tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of cotton is 60 thousand tons, down 10 thousand tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 120 thousand tons, down 10 thousand tons [2]. - The daily profit of imported cotton is 284 yuan/ton, up 103 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 4152.6 thousand tons, down 687 thousand tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly yarn inventory days are 21.12 days, up 0.14 days; the monthly inventory days of grey cloth are 32.54 days, up 1.37 days [2]. - The monthly cloth output is 2.72 billion meters, down 0.159 billion meters; the monthly yarn output is 1987 thousand tons, down 183.5 thousand tons [2]. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1,160,655.8 thousand US dollars, up 25,528.3 thousand US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1,257,966.4 thousand US dollars, up 52,872.6 thousand US dollars [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 8.76%, up 1.09%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options is 8.77%, up 1.06% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 6.67%, down 3.36%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 12.69%, up 0.01% [2]. Industry News - As of June 6, 2025, the national commercial inventory of cotton is 3,209.2 thousand tons, down 128.7 thousand tons (a decrease of 3.86%) from last week. Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang is 2,303 thousand tons, down 108.2 thousand tons (a decrease of 4.49%) week - on - week; the commercial cotton in the inland area is 448.5 thousand tons, down 4.6 thousand tons (a decrease of 1.02%) week - on - week [2]. - As of the week of June 8, 2025, the US cotton sowing is 76% complete, 10% higher than the previous week, 3% lower than the same period last year, and 4% lower than the five - year average. The excellent - good rate is 49%, the same as the previous week and 7% lower than the same period last year. The US weather is generally favorable for crop growth [2].

Investment Ratings - The steel industry is rated as "Neutral" while the non-ferrous metals industry is rated as "Positive" [3] - Specific companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), Zhongjin Gold (600489), Shandong Gold (600547), Zijin Mining (601899), and China Aluminum (601600) are rated as "Buy" [3] Core Insights - The steel market is experiencing a seasonal downturn, with expectations of declining demand for construction materials and sheet steel, leading to a potential inventory accumulation cycle [1][18] - Copper prices are supported by tight supply at the mine level, but the overall demand remains weak during the off-season [1][41] - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term due to domestic low inventory supporting prices, despite some downstream sectors showing signs of weakness [1][50] - Gold prices are bolstered by international trade tensions, expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts, and geopolitical factors [2][54] - The lithium market faces oversupply pressures, with significant inventory levels expected to keep prices weak [2][57] Industry Summaries Steel Industry - Demand has weakened, with a notable decrease in terminal procurement volumes, down 14.62% week-on-week and 6.41% year-on-year as of June 6 [19] - Steel production from major varieties was 8.8038 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.05% from the previous week [21] - The total steel inventory increased by 0.26% week-on-week, but decreased by 20.97% year-on-year [27] Copper Industry - The copper market is influenced by U.S.-China trade tensions, with the first meeting of trade negotiations expected to impact copper prices significantly [41] - As of June 6, LME copper prices were $9,800 per ton, reflecting a 1.79% increase from the previous week [48] Aluminum Industry - The aluminum sector is facing pressure from rising costs due to higher alumina prices, while some downstream demand is weakening [50] - As of June 6, LME aluminum prices were $2,400 per ton, down 0.55% from the previous week [51] Gold Industry - Gold prices are supported by various macroeconomic factors, including rising U.S. debt and geopolitical tensions [2][54] - As of June 6, COMEX gold closed at $3,331 per ounce, up 0.54% from the previous week [54] Lithium Industry - The lithium market is characterized by significant inventory pressure, with prices expected to remain weak due to oversupply [57] - As of June 6, battery-grade lithium carbonate prices were 60,700 yuan per ton, down 1.30% from the previous week [58] Rare Earth and Minor Metals - Prices for light rare earths have shown an increase, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide priced at 449,000 yuan per ton as of June 6, up 2.51% [68]

间或受限。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 棉花(纱)产业日报 2025-06-10 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13520 | 25 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 19725 | -15 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -37743 | -5128 棉纱期货前20名净持仓(手) | 65 | -94 | | | 主力合约持仓量:棉花(日,手) | 538557 | 96 主力合约持仓量:棉纱(日,手) | 16083 | 1669 | | | 仓单数量:棉花(日,张) 中国棉花价格指数:CCIndex:3128B(日,元 | 10815 | -20 仓单数量:棉纱(日,张) | 2 | 2 | | 现货市场 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bearish [3] Core Viewpoints - Although the supply of lead ore is relatively tight, it is currently the off - season for consumption, with low downstream enterprise operations. Sellers are lowering quotes, and some smelters are resuming production. It is recommended to conduct sell - hedging on rallies, with the selling range suggested between 16,950 yuan/ton and 16,980 yuan/ton. The option strategy is to wait [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On June 9, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 26.98 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16525 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 25.00 yuan/ton, while SMM lead spot prices in Guangdong, Henan, and Tianjin all increased by 25 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference and waste battery prices remained unchanged [1] Futures - On June 9, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16705 yuan/ton, closed at 16765 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 27538 lots, a decrease of 3315 lots, and the position was 49567 lots, a decrease of 408 lots. The night - session main contract opened at 16810 yuan/ton and closed at 16865 yuan/ton, up 0.81% from the afternoon close [1] Inventory - On June 9, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 5.3 million tons, a decrease of 0.05 million tons from the previous week. As of June 9, the LME lead inventory was 279975 tons, a decrease of 1375 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The strategy for lead is to be cautiously bearish, with a recommendation to conduct sell - hedging on rallies. The selling range is suggested between 16,950 yuan/ton and 16,980 yuan/ton. The option strategy is to wait [3]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are expected to remain volatile in the near term, with limited upside and downside potential due to low inventory levels and supply disruptions, despite weakening downstream consumption [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be weak in the short term due to the weakening US economy, increased tariffs, and the approaching off - season, despite the current strong de - stocking of aluminum ingots and bars [2][4]. - Nickel prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the medium - to - long term due to supply overcapacity, although cost support limits the downside [5]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to conduct range trading, while paying attention to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [6]. Summary by Category 1. Base Metals - **Copper**: As of June 9, the Shanghai copper main 07 contract rose 0.13% to 78,910 yuan/ton. Tariffs and Sino - US leader phone calls bring positive expectations, but downstream consumption is weakening. Social inventory is low and stable, and the upside and downside of copper prices are limited [1]. - **Aluminum**: As of June 9, the Shanghai aluminum main 07 contract fell 0.20% to 20,025 yuan/ton. Guinea's mine - end disruptions will affect imports in July. Alumina production capacity is increasing, and aluminum downstream开工率 is decreasing. Short - term aluminum prices are expected to be weak [2][4]. - **Nickel**: As of June 9, the Shanghai nickel main 07 contract rose 0.47% to 122,710 yuan/ton. There are supply shortages in nickel mines, and the nickel industry has over - capacity. Cost support limits the downside, but prices are expected to be weakly volatile [5]. - **Tin**: As of June 9, the Shanghai tin main 07 contract rose 0.31% to 263,740 yuan/ton. Tin ore supply is improving, but the improvement is limited. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate, and range trading is recommended [6]. 2. Spot Transaction Summary - **Copper**: Spot market transactions are light, with holders holding firm on prices and downstream buyers making small - quantity purchases on dips. Traders are waiting for negotiation results and inventory inflection points [7]. - **Aluminum**: Spot aluminum market transactions are light, with downstream buyers making rigid - demand purchases. Holders are more willing to sell, but traders are cautious [8]. - **Zinc**: Spot market trading volume has increased slightly. Holders lower premiums to stimulate sales, and downstream buyers purchase on dips, but macro uncertainties limit restocking [10][11]. - **Lead**: Spot market trading is light, with traders focusing on selling and downstream buyers making rigid - demand purchases [12][13]. - **Nickel**: Spot market transactions are light, with downstream buyers making rigid - demand purchases and trading mainly among traders [14][15]. - **Tin**: Spot market transactions are light due to high prices [16]. 3. Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - **SHFE**: Copper, zinc, and nickel futures warehouse receipts increased, while aluminum and tin futures warehouse receipts decreased, and lead futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged [18]. - **LME**: Copper, lead, zinc, aluminum, and nickel inventories decreased, and tin inventory remained unchanged [18].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Ethanol [1] - Bearish: Polycrystalline Silicon, Lithium Carbonate, Coking Coal, Coke, Logs, PTA, Short - Fiber, PVC [1] - Neutral (Oscillating): Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Silicon Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybeans, Pulp, Live Pigs, Asphalt, Natural Rubber, BR Rubber, Ethylene Glycol, Styrene, Urea, Methanol, Seasonal Products, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG, Container Shipping on European Routes [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term fluctuations of stock indices are dominated by overseas variables, and they are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but be cautious about the repeated signals of Sino - US tariffs [1]. - Asset scarcity and a weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest - rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and international relations. For example, the price of copper is affected by supply and Sino - US relations; the price of aluminum is affected by inventory and downstream demand [1]. Group 3: Summary by Industry Macro - Finance - Stock Index: Overseas variables dominate short - term fluctuations, expected to oscillate strongly with caution about tariff signal repetitions [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset scarcity and weak economy are favorable, but central - bank interest - rate risk warning restricts upward space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Gold: Expected to run strongly in the short term with a solid long - term upward logic [1]. - Silver: Technically broken through, expected to run strongly but beware of a pull - back [1]. - Copper: The Sino - US leaders' call boosts the price, but sufficient supply restricts the upward space [1]. - Aluminum: Low inventory supports the price, but weakening downstream demand may lead to a weakening oscillation [1]. - Alumina: Spot price rising, futures price falling due to increased production [1]. - Nickel: Expected to oscillate in the short term, with long - term surplus pressure [1]. - Stainless Steel: Follows macro - oscillations in the short term, with long - term supply pressure [1]. - Tin: Supply contradiction intensifies in the short term, expected to oscillate at a high level [1]. - Industrial Silicon: High supply in the northwest, resuming production in the southwest, low demand, and high inventory pressure [1]. Ferrous Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: In the window period of peak - to - off - peak season, with loose cost and supply - demand patterns and no upward driving force [1]. - Iron Ore: Expecting the peak of molten iron, with supply increase in June [1]. - Manganese Silicon: Short - term supply - demand balance, with high warehouse - receipt pressure [1]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon: Cost is affected by coal, but production reduction makes supply - demand tight [1]. - Glass: Weak supply and demand, with prices continuing to weaken [1]. - Soda Ash: Direct demand is okay, but terminal demand is weak, with medium - term over - supply and price pressure [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Spot prices continue to weaken, and the futures can be shorted [1]. Agricultural Products - Sugar: Brazilian sugar production is expected to hit a record high, but oil prices may affect production [1]. - Corn: Supply - demand tightening supports a strong oscillation, but the increase is limited by substitute grains [1]. - Soybeans: Expected to oscillate due to the lack of strong upward driving force [1]. - Pulp: Demand is weak, but the downward space is limited [1]. - Logs: Supply is loose, demand is weak, and short - selling is recommended [1]. - Live Pigs: Inventory is sufficient, and futures are stable [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil and Fuel Oil: Sino - US calls, geopolitical situations, and the summer peak season support the prices [1]. - Asphalt: Affected by cost, inventory, and demand [1]. - Natural Rubber: Futures - spot price difference returns, cost support weakens, and inventory decreases [1]. - BR Rubber: Fundamentals are loose in the short term, and long - term factors need attention [1]. - PTA: Actual production hits a new high, and sales are difficult [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Coal - to - ethylene glycol profit expands, and inventory is decreasing [1]. - Styrene: Speculative demand weakens, inventory rises, and the basis weakens [1]. - Urea: Expected to rebound due to export demand [1]. - Methanol: Entering the inventory - accumulation stage, with weak traditional demand [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure increases due to the end of maintenance and new device production [1]. - Caustic Soda: Spot is strong in the short term, but the price - reduction expectation is traded in advance [1]. - LPG: Prices are weak and oscillate in a narrow range [1]. Others - Container Shipping on European Routes: The contract in the peak season can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ななな [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Lead: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: なな女 な女女 [1] 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply, demand, inventory, and price trends [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Thursday, Shanghai copper main contract closed up above 78,000 yuan. Today, spot copper price adjusted to 78,415 yuan. Shanghai copper premium narrowed to 90 yuan, and Guangdong copper was at a discount of 15 yuan. SMM social inventory decreased by 4,200 tons to 148,800 tons this week. Suggest to short on rebounds or actively roll over contracts [2] Aluminum & Alumina - Shanghai aluminum slightly declined today. East China spot premium slightly dropped to 90 yuan. Aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 15,000 tons, while aluminum rod inventory increased by 2,000 tons. Demand faces seasonal weakening and trade friction. Shanghai aluminum has resistance at the previous gap of 20,300 yuan. Guinea mining area incident has temporarily subsided. Alumina has an over - supply situation in the long - term. Suggest to short on highs for both aluminum and alumina [3] Zinc - Overseas mines are expected to increase output in Q2 compared to Q1. Domestic CZSPT's Q3 2025 import ore TC guidance price is 80 - 100 dollars/dry ton. Zinc social inventory is expected to fluctuate at a low level, but total supply of zinc ingots and zinc alloys will increase. Consumption off - season is emerging. Suggest to short on rebounds [4] Lead - Thursday, SMM 1 lead average price rose by 75 yuan to 16,500 yuan/ton. High spot - futures price difference promotes warehousing. Lead - acid battery consumption is in the off - season. SMM lead social inventory increased to 53,900 tons. Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate between 16,300 - 17,000 yuan/ton [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel futures price oscillated downwards. Trade conflicts have spread to the steel sector. Stainless steel supply remains high, and consumption peak season is ending. Philippines nickel ore supply is expected to increase. Suggest to short on rebounds [7] Tin - Shanghai tin weighted price oscillated below the annual line. Today, spot tin price increased by 4,100 yuan to 259,600 yuan. Low - grade tin复产 may be more difficult than expected. Suggest to hold previous high - level short positions and roll over contracts on rebounds [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures price oscillated. Total market inventory decreased by 200 tons to 131,600 tons, downstream inventory increased by 800 tons, and smelter inventory decreased by 1,000 tons. Mid - stream production increased by 3% month - on - month. Suggest to participate in the oscillatory rebound with a light position [9] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures slightly declined. Supply is increasing while demand growth in photovoltaic and organic silicon slows down. High inventory persists. Although there are signs of oversold, the downward trend remains. Suggest to maintain a bearish view [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures decreased with reduced positions. Domestic distributed demand declined. June downstream production plans are tightened, while polysilicon production is expected to increase. Inventory pressure rises slightly. Price tends to oscillate weakly [11]