【棉花周二行情及市场分析】周二，ICE 美棉下跌 0.88%，报收 67.82 美分/磅，CF509 下跌 0.23%，报 收 12745 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 6434 手至 58.75 万手。 新疆地区棉花到厂价为 13846 元/吨， 较前一日下降 79 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14113 元/吨，较前一日下降 70 元/吨。 国际市 场上，宏观扰动仍存，美国近期数据公布喜忧参半，美联储5 月大概率按兵不动，美元指数重心小幅下 移，关注美联储议息会议结束后的相关发言。天气方面，美国及德州棉花主产区受干旱影响面积环比下 降，干旱扰动减弱。 国内市场中，郑棉维持低位震荡走势，目前缺乏趋势性驱动。一方面中美关税有 改善预期，郑棉期价处于历史低位，下方空间有限；另一方面，已进入纺服消费淡季，终端需求有待改 善，新棉种植基本结束，国内新棉种植面积同比增加，整体供需结构难有方向性变化。预计短期郑棉低 位区间震荡为主，关注后续宏观及天气层面扰动。【白糖市场动态】2024/25 榨季截至 2025 年 4 月 30 日，印度入榨甘蔗 27585.7 万吨，较去年同期的 31151.2 万吨减 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Arbitrage: Suspended [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the off - season of consumption, the supply and demand of lead may show a weak pattern, and macro uncertainties will continuously interfere with the trend of non - ferrous metals. It is recommended to conduct sell - hedging operations around 17,200 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On May 6, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$10.29/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by -100 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 0 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton, SMM Guangdong lead spot changed by -75 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton, SMM Henan lead spot changed by -100 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton, and SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by -125 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,300 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells changed by 50 yuan/ton to 10,525 yuan/ton [2] Futures - On May 6, 2025, the main contract of SHFE lead opened at 16,755 yuan/ton, closed at 16,700 yuan/ton, a change of -140 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 36,146 lots, a change of 1,712 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 38,454 lots, a change of 2,348 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,780 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,625 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of SHFE lead opened at 16,740 yuan/ton, closed at 16,675 yuan/ton, a 0.05% decrease from the afternoon close [3] Inventory - On May 6, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 46,000 tons, a change of 600 tons from the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 261,500 tons, a change of -100 tons from the previous trading day [3]

/ 国信期货研究 Page1 国信期货有色（铝、氧化铝）月报 202505 铝、氧化铝 黑天鹅灰犀牛齐舞有色仍在强势风口 供应过剩预期限制氧化铝反弹空间 沪铝等待新一轮宏观指引 2021 年 4 月 25 日 2025 年 4 月 27 日 主要结论 氧化铝方面，成本利润端，未来 5 月氧化铝成本或仍由铝土矿价格变化主导，矿价预 计在上下游博弈中承压下行，但空间有限。供应过剩压力下，成本降低所挤让出的利润预 计难以保留，长期来看氧化铝行业盈利能力仍不容乐观，大部分企业将面临扩损压力，行 业利润的修复能力将更多依靠供应端的调节，若 5 月累积减产规模扩大，进一步推动氧化 铝价格反弹，行业亏损压力有望出现阶段性缓解。供应端，减产、复产与新产能释放并行 的局面预计有所持续，氧化铝未来整体供应增量可观，奠定了中长期供应过剩的预期，不 确定性在于当前氧化铝行业低利润情况下，新产能释放的节奏是否有所推迟，以及高成本 产区的减产规模是否进一步扩大，需要持续关注高成本产区的产能运行情况以及新投产能 的释放速度，以防出现过大的预期差风险。需求方面将受到出口需求走弱的影响，出现边 际下滑。 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【 ...

研究院 农产品组 研究员 邓绍瑞 010-64405663 dengshaorui@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 lixin@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z0019724 联系人 白旭宇 010-64405663 baixuyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03114139 薛钧元 010-64405663 xuejunyuan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03114096 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 期货研究报告|果蔬品周报 2025-4-13 红枣观点 ■ 市场分析 苹果天气扰动强势上涨，枣树萌芽关注天气变化 策略摘要 苹果观点 ■ 市场分析 综合来看，4 月份苹果进入传统销售旺季，客商陆续返回产地补货，山东产区低价货 源交易增多，冷库包装发货较多。销区到车量增加，市场走货好转，下游客户按需补 货，消化进度良好。前期对消费的担忧减缓，市场看涨情绪居多。柑橘类消费放缓， 其他竞品水果对苹果销售的侵占有限，利好苹果。当前剩余库存处于五年低位，去库 压力不大，预计下周成交保持顺畅，价格维持稳 ...