1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The "reciprocal tariff" policy of the United States continues to loosen, leading to a significant increase in global risk appetite. The short - term stagflation risk of the US economy is increasing, with the US dollar index falling. In China, market - stabilizing measures and potential new policies support the domestic market risk appetite [2]. - For asset investment, the stock index is expected to rebound in the short - term with cautious long positions; treasury bonds will oscillate at a high level with cautious long positions; the black metal sector is weakly oscillating with cautious observation; the non - ferrous metal sector is oscillating and rebounding with cautious long positions; the energy and chemical sector is oscillating with cautious observation; precious metals are rising with cautious long positions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in April was 50.8, lower than expected, and the one - year inflation rate expectation reached a 40 - year high, increasing the short - term stagflation risk. The US has exempted some electronic products from "reciprocal tariffs", and the global risk appetite has increased [2]. - Domestic: The loosening of the US "reciprocal tariff" policy and domestic market - stabilizing measures and potential new policies support the domestic market risk appetite [2]. 3.2 Stock Index - Supported by sectors such as semiconductors, non - metallic materials, and precious metals, the domestic stock market continued to rebound. With the loosening of the US "reciprocal tariff" policy and domestic support measures, short - term cautious long positions are recommended [2][3]. 3.3 Precious Metals - Gold: Due to the US government's credit damage, the selling of US dollar assets, and geopolitical uncertainties, gold remains strong. A significant correction may present a long - term allocation opportunity [4]. - Silver: Affected by trade frictions, it fell 3.81% last week. It may follow gold and show a weakly oscillating and upward trend [4]. 3.4 Black Metal - Steel: The spot and futures prices of steel continued to be weak last week, but the decline slowed down over the weekend. The apparent demand for some steel products decreased, and the supply of some varieties may still increase. Short - term observation is recommended [5][7]. - Iron Ore: The spot and futures prices rebounded slightly. Iron water production may continue to increase, but there is a downward expectation in the medium - term. The short - term price will oscillate within a range [7]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: The spot prices remained flat. The demand for ferroalloys is fair, but the supply is decreasing. Short - term price oscillation within a range is expected [8]. 3.5 Energy and Chemical - Crude Oil: After tariff fluctuations, the oil price rebounded slightly, but the market is still worried about demand decline. The Iran sanctions risk may lead to short - term price fluctuations, and long - term oversupply is expected [9]. - Asphalt: It oscillates weakly following the oil price. The inventory has decreased, but the actual demand is weak, and the price fluctuation will remain high [9]. - PX: The external price has dropped significantly. It will continue to be weak in the short - term, but there may be a slight rebound later [10][11]. - PTA: Terminal orders are affected by tariffs, and the short - term rebound space is limited, remaining in a weak state [11]. - Ethylene Glycol: The short - term demand is poor, and the de - stocking time is postponed. It will oscillate at a low level [11]. - Short - fiber: The price has been corrected significantly, and it will continue to oscillate weakly, but there is some support [11]. - Methanol: The inventory is decreasing, but the supply is expected to increase. The 05 contract will oscillate and repair, and the 09 contract is bearish [12]. - PP: The downstream start - up has decreased slightly, but the supply reduction may relieve the pressure, and the price will oscillate and repair [12]. - LLDPE: The downstream demand has declined, and the 09 contract's center of gravity will move down [12]. 3.6 Non - ferrous Metal - Copper: The US may not increase tariffs further. Looking for low points for a rebound is a more prudent strategy in the short - term [13]. - Aluminum: The inventory has decreased, and it can be considered for a rebound after a short - term correction [13]. - Tin: The macro situation is expected to improve market sentiment. The smelter start - up has declined, and the inventory has decreased. The tin price will rebound in the short - term [14]. 3.7 Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: The supply - demand expectation has tightened, and the price may rebound if there are weather risks during the spring sowing [15]. - Soybean Meal: The domestic supply has decreased, and the inventory has shrunk. The price will fluctuate at a high level, and the downward space is limited [15]. - Rapeseed Meal: It has entered the consumption season, and the inventory is high. The supply risk has decreased, and there is room for the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal to rebound [15]. - Soybean Oil: The demand is in the off - season, and the price is supported by the risk premium of imported soybeans. The basis may weaken in the second quarter [16]. - Palm Oil: The domestic inventory is low, but the global production is increasing, and the price is under pressure [16][17]. - Rapeseed Oil: The domestic inventory is high, and the price is under pressure. The cost support is stable but lacks driving force [17].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. government has led to significant market volatility, with major declines in U.S. stock markets and other asset classes, indicating a potential liquidity shock and a loss of confidence in the global economic order [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Tariff Overview - The "reciprocal tariffs" are extensive, applying a baseline 10% tariff on all trade partners, with effective rates potentially rising above 23%, marking a historical high [2][6][10]. - Specific countries facing higher tariffs include Vietnam (46%), Thailand (36%), and China (34%), among others, with exemptions for certain goods [3][11]. Economic Impact - The tariffs are expected to increase inflationary pressures in the U.S., with estimates suggesting a rise in inflation by 1.5-2 percentage points, potentially leading to a GDP drag of approximately 0.7 percentage points [20][21][27]. - The effective tax rate on imports has already increased from 2.3% to 5.7% prior to the tariffs, and is projected to rise significantly due to the new measures [10][6]. Market Reactions - U.S. stock markets have experienced a sharp decline, with the Nasdaq index dropping over 5% in two days, reflecting heightened risk premiums and investor uncertainty [1][30]. - The volatility has also affected other asset classes, including commodities like oil and gold, while the U.S. dollar has shown signs of pressure due to long-term policy confidence issues [1][34]. Sector-Specific Effects - Industries with significant exposure to U.S.-China trade, such as electronics and consumer goods, are likely to face substantial impacts, with potential declines in earnings growth for affected sectors [38][44]. - The tariffs may lead to a reevaluation of supply chains, with companies potentially seeking to mitigate risks through diversification or relocation of production [41][46]. Global Implications - Emerging markets, particularly those with high exposure to U.S. exports like Vietnam and Thailand, are expected to experience significant economic impacts, with potential currency depreciation and capital outflows [45][49]. - The overall sentiment in global markets is likely to remain cautious, with investors closely monitoring the developments in tariff negotiations and retaliatory measures from affected countries [12][37].

一、美股下行与前期观点验证 当地时间3月10日，美股遭遇"黑色星期一"大幅下挫，标普500指数下跌2.7%，纳斯达克指数下跌4%，道琼斯 工业指数下跌2.08%。近期美股经历明显调整，标普500指数已从高点下行近10%。 这一走势与我们此前的市 场预判一致。早在2024年9月研究院的 《资本市场月报》 中，我们对美股科技股的观点即从乐观转为中性，明 确指出"上行空间有限，风格趋于均衡"，认为大型科技股预期过高， 将纳斯达克配置下调至标配水平。 在 2025年年度展望 《中美"再通胀"——2025年宏观经济与资本市场展望》 中，我们进一步强调了美国通胀风险 的重要性，并提示AI发展面临短期挑战。在2025年3月机构观点 《境外美股承压，境内股好于债》 中，明确 指出受多重因素影响，美股压力增大。 二、美股调整的原因 当前美股调整的核心原因来自三个方面： 一是对美国 经济滞胀的忧虑。 一方面是经济预期回落，另一方面是通胀数据回升。近期美国经济领先指标明 显转弱，预示未来企业盈利可能走软，对股市支撑力度下降。分析师预测也呈现回落趋势，2025年标普500净 利润增速从年初的12.5%下降至当前的10.3%。再通胀风 ...

Group 1: U.S. Tariff Actions - On March 3, 2025, President Trump announced a 25% tariff on all goods from Canada and Mexico, with a 10% tariff on Canadian energy products[1] - The second round of tariffs on Chinese goods increased from 10% to 20%[1] - Canada retaliated with a 25% tariff on $30 billion CAD of U.S. imports starting March 4, and an additional $125 billion CAD after 21 days[1] Group 2: Impact on China - In 2024, China's total exports to the U.S. were $524.656 billion, accounting for 14.67% of China's total exports, the lowest since 2010[4] - The 20% tariff on Chinese goods is expected to drag down China's nominal GDP by approximately 0.4%[4] - The largest export categories to the U.S. include machinery and audio equipment, which accounted for $218.38 billion or 41.6% of total exports to the U.S.[4] Group 3: Impact on U.S. Economy - Recent economic data shows a decline in U.S. retail sales, with a January 2025 decrease of 0.88%, the largest drop since January 2024[12] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, above the expected 4%[16] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPnow model predicts a significant drop in Q1 2025 GDP growth to -2.83%[16] Group 4: Market Reactions - Major U.S. stock indices have declined, with the Dow Jones down 4% and the S&P 500 down 4.5% since the tariff announcement[22] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 4.3%, dropping below 104[23] - Gold prices increased to over $2900 per ounce, reflecting a 3.6% rise since the tariff announcement[23] Group 5: Future Outlook - The financial market is expected to experience volatility, with U.S. stocks fluctuating around the annual line[29] - The dollar index is projected to remain weak within the 100-105 range[29] - Gold prices may continue to rise, potentially reaching $3000 per ounce in the short term[29]