Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The new generation of wealth management systems has been fully launched, significantly optimizing data quality and reporting efficiency, laying a foundation for transparency in information disclosure [3][10][11] - Some wealth management companies are attempting to utilize T-1 valuation rules to create "explosive" products, enabling value transfer between new and old products [3][12][13] - The report highlights the potential risks of T-1 valuation arbitrage, including investor dissatisfaction and hindrance to research and development capabilities within the industry [17][18] Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - The new generation wealth management system was launched on October 3, 2025, enhancing data processing capabilities and system stability [10][11] - The T-1 valuation arbitrage method is being explored by some companies to quickly generate popular products, which may lead to unfair advantages for new product investors [12][14][17] Peer Innovation Dynamics - China Post Wealth Management has launched two indices focused on high-grade technology innovation and green bonds, supporting the transition to a low-carbon economy [18] Yield Performance - Cash management products recorded a 7-day annualized yield of 1.28%, a decrease of 1 basis point from the previous week, while money market funds remained stable at 1.16% [19][21] - The report indicates a general decline in yields across various fixed-income products due to tighter monetary policy and market conditions [21][22] Net Value Tracking - The net value ratio of bank wealth management products was 0.53%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points, with credit spreads also narrowing [28][29]

Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - The new generation of wealth management system was fully launched on October 3, 2025, marking a significant breakthrough in data processing capabilities and system stability for the wealth management market [6][7]. - Some wealth management companies are attempting to create "popular" products by utilizing the T-1 valuation rule of trust accounts, enabling value transfer between new and old products [8][10]. Peer Innovation Dynamics - China Post Wealth Management, in collaboration with the China Bond Valuation Center, launched two indices: "China Bond - China Post Wealth Management High-Grade Technology Innovation Bond Selection Index" and "China Bond - China Post Wealth Management High-Grade Green Bond Selection Index" to support technological innovation and green transformation [12][13]. Yield Performance - For the week of November 3 to November 9, 2025, cash management products recorded an annualized yield of 1.28%, a decrease of 1 basis point, while money market funds remained stable at 1.16% [14][15]. - The overall bond market yield is experiencing fluctuations due to lower-than-expected central bank bond purchases and tightening expectations from public fund sales regulations [15]. Net Rate Tracking - The net rate of bank wealth management products was 0.53%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points, with credit spreads contracting by 5.56 basis points, indicating limited cost-effectiveness [21].

Group 1 - The performance of major global stock indices declined due to multiple factors including the cooling of interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, the U.S. government shutdown leading to missing economic data, and a valuation correction in the tech sector [1] - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant drop, with the Nasdaq index falling 3.04%, marking its worst weekly performance since April, driven by concerns over AI tech stock bubbles and liquidity pressures from the government shutdown [1] - In the bond market, global government bond yields mostly rose, with U.S. Treasury yields fluctuating upward amid liquidity tightening and policy expectation dynamics [1] Group 2 - Domestic economic indicators showed positive signs with the resumption of U.S.-China trade talks, the central bank maintaining liquidity, and a rise in October CPI year-on-year, alleviating deflation concerns [2][4] - The A-share market experienced a slight increase despite reduced trading volume, with the Shanghai Composite Index touching 4000 points again during the week [2] - The issuance of $4 billion in sovereign bonds by China, with a subscription rate of 30 times, indicates a potential new channel for dollar liquidity [5] Group 3 - The outlook for assets suggests a stable economic environment with narrow fluctuations in stocks, bonds, and currencies, as the yuan remains relatively stable without strong support for a sustained dollar rise [6] - The stock market is expected to experience slight fluctuations and consolidation due to a lack of strong new policy expectations [7] - The bond market is anticipated to show stable fluctuations with a relaxed funding environment and a gradual pace of central bank bond purchases [8]

Group 1 - The A-share market has seen a significant increase in investor participation, with 22.46 million new accounts opened in the first ten months of 2025, representing an 11% year-on-year growth, bringing the total number of A-share investors close to 250 million [1] - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets have performed well in 2025, driven by sectors such as AI computing and innovative pharmaceuticals, with the ChiNext index outperforming gold and the mixed equity fund index achieving a return of 32.47%, surpassing major indices like the Nasdaq [2][3] - Among 31 first-level industries, 30 have recorded positive returns this year, with the only exception being the food and beverage sector, which saw a slight decline, highlighting a significant divergence in sector performance [3] Group 2 - The commodities market has experienced unprecedented performance this year, with commodity funds achieving returns close to 40% and other QDII funds rising by 26.46%, influenced by a declining interest rate environment and geopolitical tensions [7] - Bond funds have underperformed, with an average return of only 2.13%, although convertible bond funds have shown a remarkable increase of over 20%, comparable to equity fund indices [8] - Overall, different types of funds have provided a positive experience for holders, particularly technology-focused funds, which have delivered substantial returns [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is in a volatile and weak - trending situation, with the long - end and short - end yields showing different trends. The long - end yields move up and down following multiple logics, while the short - end yields are at a low level and are weakly volatile. The central bank's bond - buying operation may open up the game space for long - term interest rates, but the "rush - ahead" market in the bond market from November to December this year may not necessarily reappear [1][5][6]. - The positioning of the central bank's national debt trading tool is becoming more diversified and three - dimensional, which is an important part of improving the micro - foundation of the bond market and enhancing pricing efficiency. The impact of the scale of bond - buying on liquidity is not the main factor, and the ultimate shape of the yield curve depends on the desired range, which is affected by market expectations, fundamental conditions, and institutional behavior [2][3][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review: Bond Market Continues to Seek Direction - This week, the bond market showed a volatile and weak - trending market under the rapid switching of multiple pricing logics. The long - end yields first declined and then rose following the logics of "central bank's bond - buying implementation - stock market strength suppressing - expectation fermentation of the new regulations on fund sales fees implementation", while the short - end yields were at a low level, and the central bank's bond - buying had limited boosting effect, showing a weak - trending volatility. On Friday, the short - end yields continued to correct due to slightly tight funds [1][8]. - At the beginning of the week, the market was mainly pricing around the central bank's restart of bond - buying in October. After the implementation of national debt trading on Tuesday afternoon, the long - end yields first rose and then strengthened. On Wednesday afternoon, the trading logic switched to the "stock - bond seesaw", and the bond market was suppressed by the strong stock market. On Friday, the expectation of the new regulations on fund sales fees implementation dominated the bond market, and the tightened funds also dragged down the market [8]. 3.2 This Week's Focus: How to Price the Yield Curve with the Central Bank's Resumption of Bond - Buying? - On October 27, the central bank mentioned resuming national debt trading, with new information including directly linking national debt trading to guiding the yield curve shape, affirming the current bond market operation, emphasizing two - way trading operations, and believing that national debt trading is beneficial to the reform and development of the bond market and the improvement of financial institutions' market - making and pricing capabilities [2][10]. - In October, the central bank net - bought 20 billion yuan of national debt. There is no need to over - focus on the relationship between the bond - buying scale in October and the operation time. The scale of bond - buying does not have a major impact on liquidity. National debt trading may open up the game space for long - term interest rates, and the market's pricing of the resumption of bond - buying may be nearing the end [3][12][14]. - The scale of bond - buying affects the market through expectations. A higher scale can boost market confidence, while a limited scale may be a short - term negative factor. The final shape of the yield curve depends on the desired range, which is affected by market expectations of interest rate trends, fundamental repair conditions, and institutional behavior [4][15][17]. 3.3 Next Week's Concern: Will There Be a "Rush - Ahead" Market at the End of the Year? - Near the end of the year, the market is turning its attention to the cross - year allocation market. The "rush - ahead" market at the end of last year was the main driving force for the rapid decline of bond market interest rates. However, this year, there are differences. The sustainability of the purchases by allocation - oriented investors such as rural commercial banks, large - scale banks, and insurance companies remains to be observed, and the increase in the purchase scale of wealth management products and funds is mainly driven by the expansion of the liability side, not by the rapid decline of bond market interest rates [5][19]. - It is believed that the "rush - ahead" market in the bond market from November to December this year may not necessarily reappear. The purchases by allocation - oriented investors may be restricted by floating losses and the high - base effect of last year's performance. Additionally, the imagination space for loose monetary policy has shrunk compared to the end of last year [5][22]. 3.4 Outlook for the Future - If the stock market strengthens and concerns about the new fund regulations ferment, it will still suppress the bond market. However, the wave - like recovery of the fundamentals and the central bank's resumption of bond - buying limit the upward adjustment momentum of interest rates. The cross - year allocation market remains to be confirmed, but the game space for long - term interest rates may be opened up. One can try to seize trading opportunities for long - term interest rates but should respond cautiously with a volatile mindset [6][23]. - In terms of spread trading, the current bond - swapping market has generally ended. The further compression space of the "China Development Bank Bond - National Debt" spread needs to be continuously observed based on the purchasing momentum of allocation - oriented investors. The "deposit transfer" may make the scale of wealth management products resilient, and the purchasing power of wealth management products may support medium - and short - term credit bonds. One can focus on medium - and short - duration bonds with coupon value [6][23][24].

Core Insights - The recent quarterly reports from Changcheng Fund for 2025 indicate a shift in monetary policy with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and a focus on employment data, suggesting a potential easing cycle ahead [1][2] - Domestic economic conditions are stabilizing, with a focus on promoting a unified national market and addressing low-price competition, which has led to a rebound in the stock market [1][3] - The bond market is experiencing upward pressure on yields, influenced by strong performance in equity markets and changes in fund fee regulations [2][4] Group 1: Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with expectations for at least two more cuts by year-end, indicating a completed policy shift [1][2] - Domestic employment remains stable, with core CPI showing a slight increase over four months, while the focus is on enhancing consumer demand and implementing anti-"involution" policies [1][2] Group 2: Market Performance - The stock market has seen a rally due to anti-"involution" policies, with significant gains in equity and commodity markets, leading to a rise in risk appetite among institutions [2][3] - The bond market has shown a steepening yield curve, with long-term yields rising while short-term rates remain low, reflecting a complex interaction between equity and bond markets [3][4] Group 3: Fund Manager Insights - Fund managers from Changcheng Fund highlight that the bond market is under pressure from rising yields, driven by improved risk sentiment and regulatory changes affecting fund management [2][4] - The performance of credit bonds has been mixed, with long-term credit spreads widening, while short-duration credit bonds have shown independent positive returns [3][4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Affected by the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading and the continued expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, most treasury bond futures closed lower the previous day. Overall, the increasing uncertainty in global trade adds to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. The bond market fluctuates between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. In the short term, attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [3]. Summary by Related Catalog I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - The monthly China CPI had a 0.10% month - on - month change and a - 0.30% year - on - year change; the monthly China PPI had a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.30% year - on - year change [9]. - The social financing scale was 437.08 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 3.42 trillion yuan and a rate of +0.79%. M2 year - on - year was 8.40%, down 0.40% from the previous value with a rate of - 4.55%. The manufacturing PMI was 49.00%, down 0.80% from the previous value with a rate of - 1.61% [10]. - The dollar index was 99.70, down 0.46 with a rate of - 0.46%. The offshore dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.1272, down 0.004 with a rate of - 0.05%. SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.42, with no change in value and a rate of - 0.14%. DR007 was 1.43, down 0.01 with a rate of - 0.86%. R007 was 1.53, up 0.02 with a rate of +1.49%. The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.57, up 0.00 with a rate of +0.18%. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.08, down 0.01 with a rate of +0.18% [11]. II. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market The report presents multiple graphs including the closing price trend of the main continuous contract of treasury bond futures, the price change rates of various treasury bond futures varieties, the trend of the settled funds of various treasury bond futures varieties, the proportion of open interest of various treasury bond futures varieties, the net open interest proportion of the top 20 traders in various treasury bond futures varieties, the long - short open interest ratio of the top 20 traders in various treasury bond futures varieties, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, and the issuance of treasury bonds [14][16][17][20]. III. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation The report shows graphs about the Shibor interest rate trend, the yield - to - maturity trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, the issuance of local government bonds, the inter - term spread trend of various treasury bond futures varieties, and the spread between the spot - bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread (4*TS - T) [24][25][29]. IV. Spread Overview The report presents graphs of the spread between the spot - bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), and (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [33][34][38]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report shows graphs of the implied interest rate and the treasury bond yield - to - maturity of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [36][39][47]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report includes graphs of the implied interest rate and the treasury bond yield - to - maturity of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [49][53]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report shows graphs of the implied yield and the treasury bond yield - to - maturity of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [56][57]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report presents graphs of the implied yield and the treasury bond yield - to - maturity of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [63][65][69]. Strategy - For single - side trading, with the decline of the repurchase rate and the fluctuating price of treasury bond futures, the outlook for the 2512 contract is neutral [4]. - For arbitrage, attention should be paid to the decline of the basis of the 2512 contract [4]. - For hedging, as there is an adjustment pressure in the medium term, short - position traders can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The outlook for stock index futures is "oscillating with a slight upward bias" [7] - The outlook for stock index options is "oscillating" [7] - The outlook for treasury bond futures is "oscillating with a slight upward bias" [7][9] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Stock index futures: The market sentiment rebounded, but it is currently considered a phased rebound. It is recommended to use a dumbbell - shaped portfolio. The reasons include the influence of the US dollar index and the policy and earnings data window period in November [1][7] - Stock index options: The market sentiment has stabilized with declining volatility. It is advisable to continue the covered - call strategy for now and switch to a bull - spread strategy after confirming the sustained improvement of sentiment [2][7] - Treasury bond futures: The performance is affected by the stock market. Although there is a lack of catalysts for further decline in bond yields, the fundamental environment may still be favorable for the bond market, and it is expected to oscillate with a slight upward bias [3][7][9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views Stock Index Futures - Yesterday, the market sentiment rose, with the Science and Technology Innovation 50 index rising over 3%. The A - share trading volume approached 2.1 trillion yuan, but the stock index showed a position - reducing trend. The current rebound is considered phased. It is recommended to hold IM + dividend index [1][7] Stock Index Options - The underlying market rose across the board yesterday, but the option market turnover decreased by 7.49% compared with the previous day. Volatility declined significantly. It is recommended to use the covered - call strategy for now [2][7] Treasury Bond Futures - Most treasury bond futures closed lower yesterday. The central bank's net withdrawal of 249.8 billion yuan through 7 - day reverse repurchase had little impact on the capital market. The long - end bond yields were affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect. It is recommended to adopt different strategies for trends, hedging, basis, and yield curve [3][7][9] 2. Economic Calendar - China's October SPGI Manufacturing PMI was 50.6, lower than the forecast of 50.9 and the previous value of 51.2. The US October ISM Manufacturing PMI was 48.7, lower than the forecast of 49.5 and the previous value of 49.1. The US October ADP employment change was 4.2 million, higher than the forecast of 2.5 million and the previous value of - 3.2 million [10] 3. Important Information and News Tracking - Medicine: The National Healthcare Security Administration plans to carry out a pilot project on full - process intelligent review of medical insurance handling to improve the national medical insurance handling and review capabilities [10] - Shipping: The US Secretary of Transportation confirmed that the capacity of 40 major US airports will be cut by 10% [11] 4. Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data on stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, including basis, spreads, trading volume, and open interest changes, but specific data analysis is not provided in the summary [7][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - In Q3 2025, the scale of bond funds and bond holdings decreased significantly, mainly due to the stock - bond seesaw and the negative impact of the new fund sales regulations. Bond funds generally reduced leverage and duration, and under - allocated interest - rate bonds, with medium - and long - term pure bond funds being the most obvious [3]. - Looking ahead, the bond market is expected to recover in Q4, and the scale of bond - type funds is likely to stabilize. With the duration of funds reaching a low point at the end of Q3, there is sufficient room for long - positions. After the possible implementation of the new fund sales regulations, the negative factors will be exhausted, which will drive the bond market, and interest rates are expected to reach a new low before the end of the year [3]. - In Q3, the overall market fund scale increased, but the bond fund scale declined. In terms of holdings, the proportion of stocks in the overall market funds increased, while that of bonds decreased, mainly by under - allocating interest - rate bonds and over - allocating credit bonds, affected by the significant interest rate adjustment in the bond market [3]. - The performance of equity assets was strong, while that of fixed - income assets was under pressure. Short - term bonds outperformed long - term bonds, and hybrid secondary bond funds outperformed hybrid primary bond funds. The equity market rally in Q3 drove up the yields of equity - related assets, and the bond yield curve steepened bearishly, with medium - and long - term bonds performing weaker [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Fund Total Scale Rises, Bond Allocation Scale Drops 1.1 Fund Market Scale: Both Fund Shares and Net Asset Value Increase - As of the end of Q3 2025, there were about 13,300 funds, with a market share of approximately 31.06 trillion shares and a net asset value of about 35.92 trillion yuan. Compared with the end of Q2 2025, the number of funds increased by 3.06%, the market share by 0.53%, and the net asset value by 6.52% [7]. 1.2 Fund Asset Allocation: Bond Allocation Proportion Drops Significantly - By the end of Q3 2025, the total fund asset value increased by 3.95% compared with Q2. The market value of stock holdings increased by 24.81% quarter - on - quarter, that of bond holdings decreased by 5.02%, and that of cash holdings increased by 5.86% [15]. - The proportion of stock assets in fund holdings increased, while that of bonds decreased. At the end of Q3 2025, the proportions of stocks, bonds, cash, and other assets were 23.58%, 52.81%, 13.11%, and 9.85% respectively, with the bond asset proportion decreasing by 4.98 pct quarter - on - quarter [15]. 1.3 Fund Bond - Holding Analysis: Interest - Rate Bond Allocation Proportion Drops Significantly - By the end of Q3 2025, among all funds' bond holdings, interest - rate bonds, financial bonds, credit bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and other bonds decreased by 8.76%, 3.68%, 0.85%, 4.65%, and 6.29% respectively quarter - on - quarter [17]. - The proportion of interest - rate bonds in fund bond holdings decreased the most. At the end of Q3 2025, the proportions of financial bonds, credit bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit in bond holdings increased by 0.18 pct, 0.88 pct, and 0.13 pct respectively, while those of interest - rate bonds and other bonds decreased by 1.16 pct and 0.04 pct respectively [19]. 2. Hybrid Bond Fund Stock - Holding Analysis - The market values of stocks held by hybrid secondary bond funds and hybrid primary bond funds were 201.1 billion yuan and 6.3 billion yuan respectively, with quarter - on - quarter increases of 91.7 billion yuan and 866 million yuan, and growth rates of 84% and 16% respectively [22]. - In terms of the top five industries by market value in the heavy - holding stocks of hybrid secondary bond funds, they were electronics, non - ferrous metals, power equipment, pharmaceutical biology, and media. In terms of quarter - on - quarter changes, electronics, non - ferrous metals, power equipment, media, and pharmaceutical biology were the most over - allocated, while public utilities, banks, building decoration, steel, and beauty care were the most under - allocated [22]. 3. Bond Fund Bond - Holding Analysis 3.1 All Bond Funds: Total Bond - Holding Scale Drops, Interest - Rate Bond Allocation Proportion Decreases - By the end of Q3 2025, the total value of bonds held by bond - type funds was about 11.61 trillion yuan, a decrease of 910.1 billion yuan or 7.27% compared with Q2 2025. The market values of interest - rate bonds, financial bonds, credit bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and other bonds decreased by 612.3 billion yuan, 143.4 billion yuan, 39 billion yuan, 73.8 billion yuan, and 41.6 billion yuan respectively [23]. - The proportions of interest - rate bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and other bonds decreased. The proportions of interest - rate bonds, financial bonds, credit bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and other bonds in bond investment market value were 42.15%, 20.59%, 30.55%, 2.35%, and 4.36% respectively, with quarter - on - quarter changes of - 1.83 pct, 0.35 pct, 1.91 pct, - 0.42 pct, and - 0.02 pct respectively [23]. - The proportions of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds in all bond funds decreased, while those of enterprise bonds, short - term financing bills, and medium - term notes increased [27]. 3.2 Medium - and Long - Term Pure Bond Funds: Treasury Bond Allocation Proportion Drops - By the end of Q3 2025, the total value of bonds held by medium - and long - term pure bond funds was about 6.88 trillion yuan, a decrease of 11.41% compared with Q2 2025. Interest - rate bonds, financial bonds, credit bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and other bonds decreased by 12.76%, 11.94%, 4.24%, 24.26%, and 31.84% respectively [29]. - The proportion of interest - rate bonds decreased. The proportions of interest - rate bonds, financial bonds, credit bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and other bonds in bond investment market value were 48.62%, 22.20%, 25.15%, 1.64%, and 2.4% respectively, with quarter - on - quarter changes of - 0.75 pct, - 0.13 pct, 1.88 pct, - 0.28 pct, and - 0.72 pct respectively [29]. - The proportion of treasury bonds decreased, while that of policy - bank bonds increased. The proportions of enterprise bonds, short - term financing bills, and medium - term notes increased [32]. 3.3 Short - Term Pure Bond Funds: Financial Bond Allocation Proportion Drops - By the end of Q3 2025, the total value of bonds held by short - term pure bond funds was about 1.003 billion yuan, a decrease of 21.68% compared with Q2 2025. Interest - rate bonds, financial bonds, credit bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and other bonds decreased by 10.50%, 30.67%, 20.47%, 37.44%, and 28.41% respectively [36]. - The proportion of financial bonds decreased. The proportions of interest - rate bonds, financial bonds, credit bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and other bonds in bond investment market value were 15.67%, 16.92%, 64.01%, 2.66%, and 0.74% respectively, with quarter - on - quarter changes of 1.96 pct, - 2.19 pct, 0.98 pct, - 0.67 pct, and - 0.07 pct respectively [37]. - The proportion of treasury bonds decreased, while that of policy - bank bonds increased. The proportions of enterprise bonds and short - term financing bills increased [39]. 4. Fund Heavy - Holding Bond Structure Analysis: Treasury Bond Holding Proportion Rises Continuously - In Q3 2025, the structure of interest - rate bonds in the heavy - holding bonds of bond - type funds remained basically unchanged. The proportions of treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - bank bonds were 11.63%, 1.32%, and 87.05% respectively, with changes of 0.01 pct, - 0.02 pct, and 0.01 pct compared with Q2 2025 [42]. - Bond - type funds increased the allocation ratio of industrial bonds with AA and below ratings and decreased the allocation ratios of industrial bonds with AAA and AA + ratings. The proportions of AAA, AA +, AA, and below AA industrial bonds were 94.71%, 4.40%, 0.75%, and 0.15% respectively [43]. - Bond - type funds increased the allocation ratio of AA + rated urban investment bonds and decreased the allocation ratios of AAA and AA and below rated urban investment bonds. The proportions of AAA, AA +, AA, and below AA urban investment bonds were 60.59%, 31.98%, 7.10%, and 0.32% respectively [44]. - In terms of regions, bond - type funds still mainly held urban investment bonds from Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Shandong at the end of Q3 2025. The holding proportions in Jiangsu, Chongqing and other regions increased quarter - on - quarter, while those in Shandong, Guangdong and other regions decreased [45][46]. 5. Fund Leverage and Duration Analysis: Both Leverage Ratio and Duration Decrease - In Q3, the leverage ratios of medium - and long - term pure bond funds, primary bond funds, and secondary bond funds decreased. The leverage ratios of medium - and long - term pure bond funds, primary bond funds, and secondary bond funds were 117.38%, 112.64%, and 110.82% respectively, with decreases of 2.82 pct, 3.97 pct, and 3.02 pct compared with Q2 2025 [48]. - In Q3, the durations of medium - and long - term pure bond funds, primary bond funds, and secondary bond funds decreased. The durations of medium - and long - term pure bond funds, primary bond funds, and secondary bond funds were 2.96 years, 2.8 years, and 2.92 years respectively, with decreases of 0.8 years, 1.27 years, and 0.9 years compared with Q2 2025 [48]. 6. Fund Performance Analysis: Performance of Products with Equity Exposure Increases Significantly - In Q3 2025, the median quarterly returns of various funds were ranked as follows: stock - type funds (20.67%) > hybrid funds (19.51%) > secondary bond funds (2.6%) > money market funds (0.29%) > short - term pure bond funds (0.23%) > primary bond funds (0.19%) > medium - and long - term pure bonds (- 0.29%) > ChinaBond CDB Bond Total Full Price Index (- 1.18%) > ChinaBond Treasury Bond Total Full Price Index (- 1.84%) [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall disturbance to the liability side of the bond market in the fourth quarter is limited. Neither the equity market nor the "relocation" of deposits is sufficient to cause a trend disturbance to the bond market. The repair market in the fourth quarter is expected to continue. The yield of the active 10 - year Treasury bond (tax - free) is expected to decline to 1.65% - 1.7%, and the yield of the taxable bond is expected to decline to 1.7% - 1.75% [2][7][34]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs For the Bond Market, Equity is a High - Odds Variable - Fixed - income and equity products have different risk preferences and corresponding customer risk levels. Even if the equity market rises significantly, the bond market's capital loss is not obvious. Residents participate in the fixed - income market mainly through bank deposits, wealth management products, and fund products [11]. - For wealth management products, after the net - value transformation, they prioritize performance stability and liquidity management. As of September this year, the scale of cash and deposits held by wealth management reached 9.4 trillion, accounting for 27.5%, a record high. The scale of equity assets held remains below 1 trillion, accounting for about 2%. The performance compliance rate is not high, with the overall lower - limit compliance rate at 65% as of September. Thus, fixed - income funds in wealth management are unlikely to flow to equity assets even when the equity market rises [12]. - Public funds are the main drivers of the stock - bond seesaw. In Q3 this year, hybrid and bond funds together increased their stock holdings by about 1.3 trillion to around 6 trillion, a 27.6% increase, and reduced bond holdings by about 2 trillion to around 22 trillion, an 8.2% decrease. "Fixed - income +" funds increased both stock and bond holdings by 0.97 trillion to over 3 trillion, a 45.2% increase. Since Q4, the equity market has been oscillating at a high level. Public funds are expected to prefer a balanced stock - bond allocation rather than significantly increasing risk asset positions [13]. Deposit "Relocation" is Relatively Mild and More Affects the Internal Pricing of the Bond Market - There are two main forms of deposit "relocation": to the equity market and to non - bank institutions due to low deposit interest rates. When deposits move to the equity market, it may drive up the equity market but will not cause the bond market to fall because margin deposits are still within the banking system [26]. - The decline in bank deposit interest rates has made the bank's liability side unstable. Before the central bank announced the resumption of Treasury bond trading, the 1Y AAA inter - bank certificate of deposit yield was above 1.65%. Even with some market speculation, the yield generally remains above 1.6% [29]. - The impact of deposit interest rate cuts on liabilities is relatively mild. Current small and medium - sized bank interest rate cuts are a follow - up to large - bank cuts. Since May this year, the prices of 10 - year Treasury bonds and LPR have not changed significantly, so a new round of deposit interest rate cuts is unlikely to start soon. The "relocation" of funds from deposits to wealth management is mild, and this capital movement is within fixed - income products, which is relatively beneficial to credit bonds [30][31].