Group 1 - The report suggests that the overall bond market is expected to gradually stabilize within a narrow range, with opportunities for short-term credit investments within 3 years, while recommending to wait for better trading opportunities for longer durations [4][9]. - The sentiment in the credit bond market has improved after the short-end correction in mid to late August, but there remains caution regarding longer durations due to weak stability in fund liabilities and strong liquidity demands [4][9]. - The report indicates that the "stock-bond seesaw" effect may weaken, which could be relatively favorable for the bond market, allowing for potential recovery opportunities [4][9]. Group 2 - In the corporate perpetual bond sector, there is potential for configuration value, but it is not yet the right time for trading; only institutions with stable liabilities are recommended to participate cautiously [4][9]. - The issuance of corporate perpetual bonds in August saw a slight decrease, with a total of 141 bonds issued, raising 146 billion yuan, while the repayment scale increased significantly, leading to a net inflow of only 8.6 billion yuan [17][20]. - The report highlights that the financing costs for high-rated issuers have increased, with AAA and AA-rated bonds seeing interest rates rise by 9 basis points and 13 basis points respectively [17][20]. Group 3 - The ABS market is expected to face challenges in seeing opportunities for spread compression in September, but there is a preference for selecting ABS with a stronger safety margin, particularly from urban investment and large central enterprises [12][4]. - The report notes that the liquidity in the ABS market is weakening, and the premium over urban investment bonds has remained stable, with a 3-year spread fluctuating between 25 to 30 basis points [12][4]. - The recommendation is to prioritize ABS types with lower risk, such as revenue rights and affordable housing, while considering the risk appetite and stability of liabilities for other types [12][4]. Group 4 - The report indicates that the secondary market for perpetual bonds is experiencing significant pressure on yield spreads, particularly for medium to long-term bonds, with credit spreads widening [28][29]. - The yield for high-grade medium to long-term perpetual bonds has increased significantly, with the AA-rated 5-year urban investment yield rising by up to 16 basis points [28][29]. - The report emphasizes that the market is currently under pressure from the "stock-bond seesaw" effect, with weak sentiment leading to upward trends in yields [28][29].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market has accumulated significant gains and may enter a high - level oscillation pattern. It is recommended to wait for the next stage of direction decision. The bond market may strengthen, and the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate within a certain range. Precious metals have reached new highs, and investors need to be cautious when going long. The shipping index shows a downward trend, and investors can consider going long on the 12 - contract on dips. The prices of various metals and agricultural products also have different trends and corresponding investment suggestions [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: On Monday, the A - share market opened higher, fluctuated during the session, and closed higher. The TMT sector remained hot, while the large - finance sector corrected. The four major stock index futures contracts all rose, and the basis of the main contracts declined [2][3]. - News: China's economic prosperity continued to expand in August. South Korea's exports in August showed strong growth, especially in semiconductors and automobiles [3]. - Capital: On September 1st, the A - share trading volume remained high, with a net withdrawal of 10.57 billion yuan by the central bank [4]. - Operation suggestion: The current basis rates of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are - 0.29%, - 0.05%, - 1.34%, and - 1.61% respectively. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market performance: Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market showed a differentiated trend [5]. - Capital: The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 10.57 billion yuan. The liquidity at the beginning of the month was generally stable [4][5][6]. - Fundamental: The manufacturing PMI in August showed a slight increase, with production and new orders rebounding, and external demand remaining resilient [6]. - Operation suggestion: The bond market may strengthen. The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.8%, and it is recommended to operate within the range [6][7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market review: Overnight, gold and silver prices rose significantly due to the increase in the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and geopolitical instability in Europe. Gold reached a new high of $3475.35 per ounce, and silver reached a new high since 2011 at $40.674 per ounce [9]. - Outlook: The Fed's policy path may suppress the US dollar index, and institutional investors' demand for precious metals continues to increase. However, investors need to be cautious when going long unilaterally. For silver, although the industrial demand is relatively weak, the price may continue to rise [10]. - Capital: The positions of gold and silver ETFs increased significantly in August, and the speculative net long positions rebounded [10]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping on European Routes - Spot price: As of September 2nd, the spot price quotes of major shipping companies showed a slow downward trend [11]. - Shipping index: As of September 1st, the SCFIS European route index and the US - West route index both declined [11]. - Fundamental: As of September 2nd, the global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year. The eurozone's comprehensive PMI and manufacturing PMI in August were above 50, and the US manufacturing PMI in July was 48 [11]. - Logic: The futures market oscillated, and the spot price continued to decline. There may be a bottom - fishing opportunity for the 12 - contract [12]. - Operation suggestion: It is expected to oscillate. Investors can wait and see or go long on the 12 - contract on dips [12][13]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: As of September 1st, the average price of electrolytic copper increased, and the supply was tight. The spot trading became more active with the arrival of the traditional peak season [14]. - Macro: The Fed's attitude has become more dovish, and the market expects the probability of an interest - rate cut in September to increase [15]. - Supply: The TC of copper concentrate was at a low level. The domestic electrolytic copper production in August decreased month - on - month, and the production in September is expected to continue to decline [15]. - Demand: The operating rates of copper rod production decreased. The domestic demand was still resilient, and the power and new - energy sectors supported the demand [16]. - Inventory: The LME copper inventory decreased, the domestic social inventory decreased, and the COMEX copper inventory increased [16]. - Logic: The Fed's dovish attitude boosts copper prices, but the upside space is limited. The fundamentals show a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". Copper prices may at least oscillate [17]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 78,500 - 80,500 yuan [17]. Alumina - Spot: On September 1st, the spot prices of alumina in various regions decreased slightly, and the supply was gradually becoming more relaxed [17]. - Supply: In July 2025, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina in China increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the operating capacity is expected to increase slightly in August [18]. - Inventory: The port inventory decreased, and the warehouse receipt registration increased [18]. - Logic: The futures price continued to decline. The market shows a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". The downside space is limited, and the upside needs new catalysts [19][20]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 2900 - 3200 yuan. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [19][20]. Aluminum - Spot: On September 1st, the average price of A00 aluminum decreased, and the premium decreased [20]. - Supply: In July 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the aluminum - water ratio decreased [20]. - Demand: The operating rates of downstream industries increased [21]. - Inventory: The domestic mainstream consumption - area inventory increased slightly, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [21]. - Logic: The futures price oscillated at a high level. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the improvement of fundamentals supported the price, but the high price suppressed downstream procurement. It is expected to oscillate between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan [22]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan, and pay attention to the pressure at 21,000 yuan [22]. Aluminum Alloy - Spot: On September 1st, the spot price of aluminum alloy remained unchanged [22]. - Supply: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased, and the operating rate increased. In August, it was affected by the off - season, and the operating rate is expected to remain stable [23]. - Demand: In July, the demand was under pressure, and the inventory increased [23]. - Logic: The futures price oscillated downward with the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the cost was supported. The demand is expected to improve in September. The price is expected to oscillate between 20,000 - 20,600 yuan [24][25]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 20,000 - 20,600 yuan. If the upward momentum of Shanghai aluminum is strong, investors can consider the arbitrage of going long on AD and short on AL [25]. Zinc - Spot: On September 1st, the average price of zinc ingots increased, and the spot trading improved [25]. - Supply: The TC of zinc concentrate remained high. The zinc ore supply was loose, and the domestic refined zinc production increased significantly in July [26]. - Demand: The operating rates of the primary processing industries were at a seasonal low, but the decline space was limited. The downstream procurement increased after the price decline [27]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory increased, and the LME inventory decreased [27]. - Logic: The supply is expected to be loose, and the price may oscillate. The upward breakthrough needs better demand and interest - rate cut expectations, and the downward breakthrough needs stronger TC and continuous inventory accumulation [28]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 21,500 - 23,000 yuan [28]. Tin - Spot: On September 1st, the price of 1 tin decreased slightly, and the spot trading was stagnant [28]. - Supply: The domestic tin ore import volume decreased in July, and the supply was still tight. The tin ingot import volume increased [29][30]. - Demand and inventory: The operating rate of the soldering tin industry decreased. The inventory of LME and the social inventory decreased [30][31]. - Logic: The national policy boosts the demand expectation. The supply is tight, and the price may oscillate at a high level. Pay attention to the recovery of Burmese tin ore supply [31]. - Operation suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see. The price is expected to oscillate widely [31][32]. Nickel - Spot: As of September 1st, the average price of 1 electrolytic nickel increased [32]. - Supply: The production of refined nickel was at a high level and was expected to increase slightly [32]. - Demand: The demand for electroplating and alloys was stable, the demand for stainless steel was average, and the demand for nickel sulfate was under pressure [32]. - Inventory: The overseas inventory remained at a high level, the domestic social inventory decreased, and the bonded - area inventory remained stable [33]. - Logic: The futures price oscillated upward. The cost was supported, and the supply - demand fundamentals changed little. The price may oscillate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan [34]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan [34][36]. Stainless Steel - Spot: As of September 1st, the price of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel increased, and the basis decreased [36]. - Raw materials: The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron was strong. The price of chrome ore was supported by cost [36][38]. - Supply: The domestic stainless - steel production in August is expected to increase [37]. - Inventory: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased [37]. - Logic: The futures price was strong. The cost was supported, but the terminal demand was weak. It is expected to oscillate between 12,600 - 13,400 yuan [38]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 12,600 - 13,400 yuan [38][39]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot: As of September 1st, the spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased, and the trading volume decreased [39]. - Supply: The production in August increased, but the supply was expected to contract recently [40]. - Demand: The demand was stable and optimistic, and the demand in September is expected to increase [40]. - Inventory: The inventory decreased slightly in all links last week [42]. - Logic: The futures price was weak, and the main - contract center moved down. The supply - demand was in a tight balance, and the price may oscillate widely between 72,000 - 78,000 yuan [43]. - Operation suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see. The price is expected to oscillate weakly and widely [43][44]. Commodity Futures - Ferrous Metals Steel - Spot: The futures price decreased significantly, and the spot price followed the decline [44]. - Cost and profit: The cost support may weaken, and the steel profit decreased significantly in August [44]. - Supply: The iron - element production increased from January to August. The steel production reached a new high this year, and the production may decline seasonally after the military parade [44]. - Demand: The domestic demand may weaken seasonally, and the export remained at a high level. The demand is expected to improve in September and October [45]. - Inventory: The inventory increased significantly in August, and it is expected to increase more slowly in the future [45]. - View: The steel price may continue to decline. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options and consider going long on the ratio of steel to ore [46]. Iron Ore - Spot: As of September 1st, the price of mainstream iron ore powder decreased [47]. - Futures: The main contract of iron ore decreased [47]. - Basis: The basis of different varieties was calculated [47]. - Demand: The steel - mill profit rate was at a high level, and the iron - water production decreased slightly [48]. - Supply: The global iron - ore shipment increased significantly, and the port arrival volume increased [48]. - Inventory: The port inventory decreased slightly, the port - clearance volume decreased, and the steel - mill inventory decreased [49]. - View: The iron - ore price may not have a strong upward drive. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the arbitrage of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [49]. Coking Coal - Spot: The spot price oscillated weakly, and the coal - mine inventory increased slightly [50]. - Supply: The coal - mine operating rate decreased slightly, and the import - coal price decreased [51][53]. - Demand: The coking - plant and blast - furnace operating rates decreased due to production restrictions [51][52][53]. - Inventory: The coal - mine, port, and border - port inventories increased slightly, and the coking - plant and steel - mill inventories decreased slightly [52][53]. - View: The coking - coal price may continue to decline in September. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the arbitrage of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [53]. Coke - Spot: The seventh - round price increase of coke was implemented, and the eighth - round increase was blocked [54][56]. - Supply: The coking - plant operating rate decreased due to production restrictions [54][56]. - Demand: The iron - water production decreased, and the demand may be affected by production - reduction policies [55][56]. - Inventory: The coking - plant, port, and steel - mill inventories all increased slightly [56]. - View: The coke price may decline in the future. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the arbitrage of going long on iron ore and short on coke [56]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - Spot market: The domestic soybean - meal spot price increased on September 1st, and the trading volume decreased. The rapeseed - meal trading volume was 100 tons [57]. - Fundamental news: There were various news about soybean production and trade around the world, such as the expected increase in US soybean crushing in July and the decrease in EU soybean imports [57][58]. - Market outlook: The US soybean yield is expected to be high, and the supply - demand pattern suppresses the market. The domestic meal price may have limited downward space, and it is recommended to go long on dips in the 3000 - 3050 range [59][60]. Live Pigs - Spot situation: The spot price of live pigs oscillated upward on September 1st [61]. - Market data: The profit of live - pig breeding decreased, and the average slaughter weight decreased slightly [61][62]. - Market outlook: The short - term supply tightened, which boosted the price, but the duration may be limited. It is recommended to operate with caution [62].

Report Investment Rating - The outlook for stock index futures is "shockingly bullish," for stock index options is "shockingly," and for Treasury bond futures is "shockingly bearish" [7][8][9] Core Viewpoints - Stock index futures are moving upward due to inertia, with the ChiNext and STAR Market indices leading the gains. A-shares are deviating from the trend of the Asia-Pacific stock market, and the CSI 2000 has underperformed the CSI 1000 in the past two weeks. The turnover rate of the Wind All A Index is approaching a relatively high level, and it may be better to shift to small and micro-cap stocks in September [7]. - The optimism in the stock index options market is waning, with trading volume and implied volatility both dropping. The market sentiment remains positive, but the trading pace has slowed down. It is advisable to set appropriate stop-profit and stop-loss points and re-anchor trading levels [8]. - The performance of the Treasury bond futures market depends on the stock market. Although the stock market was strong yesterday, the bond market also showed an upward trend, and the bullish sentiment may have recovered. The market is concerned about a potential short-term adjustment in the stock market, which could boost the bullish sentiment in the bond market. The bond market should be approached with caution [3][9]. Summary by Directory Market Views Stock Index Futures - The basis of the current contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM closed at -13.11, -1.60, -95.49, and -120.55 points respectively, with a month-on-month change of -22.55, -5.13, -48.35, and -48.47 points. The spreads between the current and next-month contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 7.6, 1.6, 51.6, and 66.4 points respectively, with a month-on-month change of 2.2, -1.6, 3.0, and 4.8 points. The total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM changed by -16713, -11062, -12442, and -12786 lots respectively [7]. - The market moved upward due to inertia yesterday, with the ChiNext and STAR Market indices leading the gains. Metal materials, electronics, and healthcare sectors had significant increases, while the large financial sector was relatively weak. A-shares are deviating from the Asia-Pacific stock market, and the CSI 2000 has underperformed the CSI 1000 in the past two weeks. The turnover rate of the Wind All A Index is approaching a relatively high level, and it may be better to shift to small and micro-cap stocks in September. It is recommended to hold IM [7]. Stock Index Options - The trading volume of each option variety decreased by 33.31%, and the liquidity of all varieties declined consistently. The implied volatility of options decreased by an average of 2.55%. It is speculated that the decline in volatility is mainly due to the closing of long option positions, rather than the suppression of short option positions. The average position PCR increased by 1.08%, indicating that the sentiment remains positive, but the trading pace has slowed down. It is advisable to set appropriate stop-profit and stop-loss points and re-anchor trading levels. A small amount of covered call strategy is recommended [8]. Treasury Bond Futures - The trading volumes of the next-quarter contracts of T, TF, TS, and TL were 84189, 60563, 25178, and 121725 lots respectively, with a one-day change of 10472, 4284, -8257, and -19489 lots. The positions were 185116, 113156, 67204, and 125481 lots respectively, with a one-day change of 7482, -145, 605, and 4819 lots. The spreads between the current and next-quarter contracts of T, TF, TS, and TL were 0.300, 0.105, -0.080, and 0.410 yuan respectively, with a one-day change of 0.060, -0.045, -0.010, and -0.100 yuan. The spreads between TF*2-T, TS*2-TF, TS*4-T, and T*3-TL of the next-quarter contracts were 103.190, 99.277, 301.744, and 207.090 yuan respectively, with a one-day change of -0.030, -0.044, -0.118, and 0.210 yuan. The basis of the next-quarter contracts of T, TF, TS, and TL were 0.340, 0.021, -0.048, and 0.549 yuan respectively, with a one-day change of -0.109, -0.032, -0.009, and -0.178 yuan. The central bank conducted 1827 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchases yesterday, with 2884 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing [8]. - Treasury bond futures rose across the board yesterday. The T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts rose 0.17%, 0.08%, 0.02%, and 0.30% respectively. The T main contract opened lower in the morning but then rebounded quickly and showed an upward trend throughout the day. The PMI data in August showed a slight increase, and the equity market continued to be strong yesterday. The bond market sentiment was weak in the morning, but the stock-bond seesaw effect weakened during the day. The bond market also showed an upward trend, and the bullish sentiment may have recovered. The market is concerned about a potential short-term adjustment in the stock market, which could boost the bullish sentiment in the bond market. Although the central bank net withdrew 105.7 billion yuan from the open market on the first day of September, the liquidity in the money market was relatively loose, and the money market rates declined. DR001 and DR007 dropped to 1.31% and 1.45% respectively. In the future, although the stock-bond seesaw effect was not obvious yesterday, it is still necessary to closely monitor the performance of the stock market and the risk appetite. The bond market should be approached with caution. Trend strategy: Be cautiously bullish. Hedging strategy: Pay attention to short hedging at low basis levels. Basis strategy: Pay attention to long-end arbitrage opportunities. Curve strategy: Appropriate attention can be paid to the steepening of the yield curve [3][9]. Economic Calendar - The economic data to be released this week includes the eurozone's unemployment rate, CPI, core CPI, PPI, the US ISM manufacturing PMI, ADP employment, and new ADP employment [10]. Important Information and News Tracking - From July 1 to August 31, the national railway carried a total of 943 million passengers, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, and the national railway carried a total of 702 million tons of goods, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. Both passenger and freight volumes reached record highs for the same period [11]. - At the end of the SCO Tianjin Summit on September 1, 2025, Wang Yi, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Minister of Foreign Affairs, introduced the eight achievements of the summit, including formulating a 10-year development strategy for the SCO, making a political decision to establish the SCO Development Bank, and setting up six practical cooperation platforms [11]. Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report also includes data on stock index futures, stock index options, and Treasury bond futures, but the specific data is not provided in the text [12][16][28]

Market Performance - Treasury futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.30%, the 10-year main contract up by 0.17%, the 5-year main contract increasing by 0.08%, and the 2-year main contract gaining 0.02% [1] - The yield on the 30-year government bond "25 Super Long Special Government Bond 02" decreased by 0.4 basis points, while the 10-year government bond "25 Coupon Government Bond 11" saw a yield drop of 1 basis point [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 182.7 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being the bid and winning amount [2] - On the same day, 288.4 billion yuan in reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 105.7 billion yuan [2] - The overall funding conditions remained stable, with a slight decrease in overnight repurchase rates for deposit-taking institutions [2] Economic Fundamentals - The manufacturing PMI for August slightly increased by 0.1% to 49.4, driven mainly by a 0.3% rise in the production index to 50.8 [3] - The new orders index also saw a minor increase of 0.1% to 49.5, indicating some resilience in external demand [3] - The raw material purchase price index rebounded by 1.8% to 53.3, while the factory price index increased by 0.8% to 49.1, suggesting ongoing price pressures in the manufacturing sector [3] Operational Recommendations - The slight recovery in the PMI for August may not significantly impact the bond market, but a balanced funding environment and renewed interest in long-term bonds could support a stronger bond market [4] - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to fluctuate between 1.75% and 1.8%, with a recommendation for investors to adopt a range-based trading strategy [4] - The anticipated easing of monetary policy, particularly with a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve, could open up a wider space for domestic monetary easing [4]

Group 1 - The article discusses three main topics: A-share mid-term reports, Alibaba's Q2 report, and the issue of style switching in the market [1] - In the A-share mid-term reports, the leading sectors today include telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, electronics, machinery, and pharmaceuticals, with telecommunications showing a net profit growth of 8% year-on-year, while the other three sectors are around 20% [2][18] - Alibaba's stock rose over 18% today after a 13% increase in the US market, contributing 1.4% to the Hang Seng Technology Index's overall gain of 2.2% [2][3] Group 2 - The article notes a significant divergence between the stock and bond markets, with the stock market seeing a surge in the optical module sector while long-term interest rates on bonds declined [3] - The optical module sector, referred to as "Yizhongtian," has seen substantial gains, with average increases exceeding 100% since August [5][6] - The article outlines four key points explaining the current market behavior, emphasizing that the inability to short-sell in the short term is a core issue [14] Group 3 - The article highlights the performance of the non-ferrous metals sector, which has shown a year-on-year net profit growth of 37% in the first half of the year, making it one of the few sectors with double-digit growth [22][23] - The article also mentions that the current market structure is characterized by a "dumbbell" approach, with investments in both high-dividend monopolistic sectors and high-growth sectors with reasonable valuations [21] - The article indicates that the insurance industry has officially lowered its preset interest rates starting today, and a new personal consumption loan subsidy policy has been launched by over 20 banks [30][31]

Core Viewpoint - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is fundamentally an asset price comparison effect following the reduction of deposit interest rates, which has led to increased acceptance of equity assets as funds are released from low-risk investments [1][8]. Group 1: Underlying Logic of Deposit Migration - The driving force behind deposit migration stems from the continuous decline in deposit interest rates, prompting residents to seek new asset opportunities as old asset returns diminish [2][8]. - There exists a clear seesaw effect between resident deposits (especially fixed deposits) and deposits in non-bank financial institutions, with the timing and final flow influenced by the macroeconomic environment and risk appetite [8]. Group 2: Impact on Stock and Bond Markets - The current round of deposit migration began in June 2023, initially flowing into money market funds and bond funds, with a noticeable increase in equity fund inflows only after the "924" policy [2][8]. - Theoretically, the decline in risk-free interest rates should lead to a simultaneous rise in both stock and bond markets, but due to transmission lags or liquidity traps, these markets may experience staggered movements, as seen in previous years [8]. Group 3: Unique Aspects of the Current Deposit Migration - Unlike previous instances, the current liquidity bull market does not aim to devalue the currency, as the central bank has not engaged in extensive monetary easing but rather focused on guiding capital back into the market [2][8]. - The recent increase in risk appetite is a result of significant macroeconomic changes, with the central bank's continuous guidance on exchange rate expectations reinforcing domestic risk appetite and restoring the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds [8].

关注长端债券机会，注意把控节奏 摘 要： 我国经济景气水平总体继续保持扩张，中国 8 月官方制造业 PMI、非制造业 PMI 和综合 PMI 分别为 49.4%、50.3%和 50.5%，环 比升 0.1、0.2 和 0.3 个百分点。九三阅兵在即，我国国际影响力 将进一步加强，离岸人民币汇率大幅升值，国内经济景气度的不断 上升，进一步提振风险偏好。下半年规模高达 5000 亿元的新型政 策性金融工具将出，重点投向新兴产业、基础设施等领域，国家开 发银行、中国农业发展银行、中国进出口银行等政策性银行参与其 中。如果下半年外围政策有任何变动，国内各种政策可以马上出台， 以保证经济复苏的趋势持续进行。 最近，多家中小银行宣布下调人民币存款利率，降幅达 10 到 20 个基点。近日，江苏银行、南京银行等多家银行宣布调整 3 年期 定期存款利率。央行新增支农支小再贷款额度 1000 亿元，引导和 鼓励金融机构加大对北京、河北、吉林、山东、甘肃等受灾地区的 经营主体特别是小微企业、个体工商户，以及农业、养殖企业和农 户的信贷支持力度。目前从流动性及货币政策方面，与央行发布第 二季度货币政策执行报告提出，下一阶段要落实落 ...

Market Overview - The bond market continued to fluctuate last week (2025.08.25-2025.08.29), with a warming market sentiment. The 1-year government bond yield decreased by 0.09 basis points to 1.37%, while the 10-year government bond yield increased by 5.61 basis points to 1.84%. Credit bonds showed overall recovery, with divergent trends in term spreads and credit spreads [3][9]. - U.S. Treasury yields also declined last week, with the 1-year yield falling to 3.83%, the 2-year yield to 3.59%, and the 10-year yield to 4.23%. This was influenced by concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve following the firing of a board member and strong demand for 2-year Treasury bonds [3][9]. REITs Market - The REITs market experienced a recovery, with the CSI REITs total return index rising by 1.06% over the week. The sectors that rebounded the most were affordable rental housing and consumer infrastructure, while transportation and energy sectors showed smaller fluctuations, indicating defensive attributes [3][10]. Public Fund Market Dynamics - The approval process for "rights-containing" mixed funds and secondary bond funds has accelerated. Recent regulatory updates indicate a focus on supporting the development of various fund types while prioritizing equity funds [4][11]. Fund Index Performance Tracking - The Money Enhanced Index rose by 0.03% last week, with a cumulative return of 3.99% since inception. Short-term bond fund selections fell by 0.03%, with a cumulative return of 4.15%. Mid to long-term bond fund selections increased by 0.07%, with a cumulative return of 6.21% [5][12][13]. - Low volatility fixed income + fund selections rose by 0.20%, with a cumulative return of 3.72%. Medium volatility fixed income + fund selections increased by 0.53%, with a cumulative return of 4.79%. High volatility fixed income + fund selections rose by 0.23%, with a cumulative return of 6.29% [6][12][13]. - Convertible bond fund selections fell by 1.28%, but have a cumulative return of 18.45%. QDII bond fund selections rose by 0.20%, with a cumulative return of 9.13% [6][12][13].

1月消费投资等经济数据再度出现明显疲软、或因季节性因素以及政策到期影响，整体经济整体增速过际放缓。同时反内卷政策效果明显，通胀指标有所起色，PPI 各项通缩压力有所缓和。 【宏观政策:政治局会议定调积级,反内卷政策持续发力】 会议延续"稳中求进"总基调，强调"保持政策连续性稳定性。增强灵活性预见他"。反内卷政策中服除"低价无序竞争"中的"低价"表达，转向依法治理元序 竞争,避免恶性价格战,鼓励企业以质量和服务竞争 【海外市场: 就业下降风险或超过通胀上升风险】 经济方面,7月非农数据确认美国就业市场显著走动,同时通胀持平前值，景气指数处于低位,经济下行风险或有抬头。 政策方面，8月央行年会美联储重新调整货币政策框架。使得9月降息都率大幅增加,预期年内有2-3次降息。此外关税政策反复较多，未来仍存不确定性。 【宏观国债月报20250831】通缩压力有所缓和，内需仍为主要矛 it 日期：2025-08-31 【宏观国债月报20250831】通缩压力有所缓和，内需仍为主要矛盾 【经济情况:7月数据回落】 9月美联储议息会议,以及国内经济数据 国债期货观点策略 | 2025-08-31 核心观点 | | --- | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The "stock - bond seesaw" is likely to continue weakening. The rise in the stock market is not due to expectations of rising economic data, and even when the stock market rises, the capital interest rate remains low and the financing demand such as credit has not significantly increased. The future trends of stocks and bonds will be relatively independent, and "trading bonds based on stocks" is not a good strategy. The more reasonable "right - side" trading signals for bond yield decline are the central bank's further easing policies and the accelerated entry of allocation - type institutions [4][9]. - The current bond market adjustment is different from that in the first quarter. The first - quarter adjustment was caused by the central bank's active tightening of liquidity, while the current one is due to institutions' active adjustment of investment strategies. It is expected that the short - end will be more stable than the long - end, and credit bonds will be more stable than interest - rate bonds [4][9]. - Considering the historical upward trend of interest rates in September compared to August and the "early" adjustment of the bond market in 2025, the bond market is expected to gradually build a top in a narrow - range oscillation. The short - term strategy suggests quick in - and - out trading of long - end bonds for small fluctuations and continuous holding of medium - and short - term credit bonds [4][11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market Weekly View: The "Stock - Bond Seesaw" May Continue to Weaken - Last week, the "stock - bond seesaw" weakened. The reasons for the stock market rise and bond market adjustment are independent of each other. The stock market rise is due to the improvement of national governance expectations and confidence in technological - led economic transformation, while the bond market adjustment is because of the low profit - making effect [4][7][9]. - The future trends of stocks and bonds will be relatively independent. The bond market adjustment this time is different from that in the first quarter, with the short - end and credit bonds being more stable. The bond market is expected to build a top in a narrow - range oscillation, and short - term strategies for long - end and medium - and short - term credit bonds are proposed [4][9][11]. 3.2 This Week's Focus in the Fixed - Income Market: Rising Treasury Bond Supply - Data to be released this week include China's August S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, US August ADP employment figures, and August unemployment rate. An important event is the grand military parade in Tiananmen Square, China on September 3 [14][15]. - At the beginning of the month, the local bond issuance scale declined, while the treasury bond issuance scale increased to a relatively high level. It is expected that a total of 6324 billion yuan of interest - rate bonds will be issued, which is at a relatively high level compared to the same period [15]. 3.3 Review and Outlook of Interest - Rate Bonds: Limited Bond Market Recovery - The central bank's reverse repurchase operations had a net investment of 196.1 billion yuan. The MLF was over - renewed, and the capital interest rate increase was controllable under the central bank's active investment. The repurchase trading volume decreased, and the overnight ratio decreased. The net financing of certificates of deposit remained negative, and the prices mainly declined [20][21][27]. - Last week, the bond market sentiment marginally recovered, but the bullish momentum was still weak. The long - end active bonds were basically flat compared to the previous week. The yield curve continued to steepen, with the long - end 10Y treasury bond yield rising the most and the 1Y policy bank bond yield falling the most [39][40]. 3.4 High - Frequency Data: Mainly Declining Operating Rates - On the production side, the operating rates of blast furnaces, semi - steel tires, petroleum asphalt, and PTA all declined, and the average daily crude steel production in mid - August had a year - on - year growth rate of - 0.4% [46]. - On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car manufacturers' wholesale and retail sales declined. The year - on - year growth rate of commercial housing transaction area was still significantly negative. The SCFI and CCFI composite indices changed by 2.1% and - 1.6% respectively [46]. - On the price side, crude oil, copper, and aluminum prices rose, coal prices were divided, and the prices of building materials, cement, and glass in the mid - stream changed to different extents. The output of rebar increased, and the inventory continued to rise rapidly. Vegetable prices rose, fruit prices changed slightly, and pork prices fell [47].