1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Bullish. Recent supply reduction and supportive supply - demand conditions suggest a positive outlook [3]. - Soda Ash: Neutral. Short - term supply - demand is average, and the rebound is more sentiment - driven [4]. 2. Core Views of the Report - Recently, the glass supply side has seen a significant reduction. With the continuation of energy consumption dual - control and anti - involution policies, the expectations of supply reduction and cost support are strengthened. Although the price is generally strong, the medium - to - long - term pressure pattern remains. At the end of the year and the beginning of the new year, policies are mainly favorable. Glass demand has resilience and supply reduction is obvious, while soda ash supply and demand are average [40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Main Views and Strategy Overview Glass - Supply: Bullish. The daily output of national float glass this week was 150,100 tons, a decrease of 0.96% from January 1st. The industry's start - up rate was 71.38%, a decrease of 0.67 percentage points from January 1st, and the capacity utilization rate was 75%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points from January 1st. Two production lines were shut down for cold repair this week, and there are still many unexpected shutdowns for maintenance at the end of the year, with short - term reduction expectations continuing. Due to policy continuation, glass supply is restricted and cost support strengthens [3]. - Demand: Neutral. Demand has some support. Recently, the phased shipment of glass manufacturers has been good, but the terminal demand support is limited, and the market is mainly driven by rigid demand, with limited actual support for overall production and sales [3]. - Inventory: Bullish. The total enterprise inventory was 55.518 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 1.348 million heavy boxes from the previous period, a decrease of 2.37% month - on - month and an increase of 27.04% year - on - year. The inventory days were 24.1 days, a decrease of 1.5 days from the previous period [3]. - Basis/Spread: Neutral. This week, the basis weakened oscillatingly, and the 01 - 05 spread strengthened oscillatingly [3]. - Valuation: Neutral. Valuation has been significantly repaired [3]. - Macro and Policy: Bullish. Policies are mainly favorable at the turn of the year [3]. - Investment View: Bullish. Recent supply reduction continues, and supply - demand has support [3]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, go long on dips; for arbitrage, mainly conduct reverse arbitrage [3]. Soda Ash - Supply: Bearish. Supply has increased significantly. This week's soda ash output was 753,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 56,500 tons, a rise of 8.11%. Among them, the light soda ash output was 349,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,000 tons, and the heavy soda ash output was 404,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 33,500 tons. The resumption of maintenance enterprises has significantly increased supply, and it is difficult for supply to increase at the end of the year and the beginning of the new year. Capacity expansion continues, and the medium - term oversupply pressure remains [4]. - Demand: Bearish. Short - term direct demand has weakened marginally. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has remained stable, while that of float glass has declined [4]. - Inventory: Bearish. Inventory has increased significantly. The total factory inventory was 1.5727 million tons, an increase of 164,400 tons from last Wednesday, a rise of 11.67%. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 836,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 104,300 tons; the heavy soda ash inventory was 736,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 60,100 tons. The inventory at the same time last year was 1.4708 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10,190 tons, a rise of 6.93% [4]. - Basis/Spread: Neutral. This week, the basis rebounded oscillatingly, and the 01 - 05 spread oscillated [4]. - Valuation: Bearish. Valuation is average [4]. - Macro and Policy: Bullish. Policies are mainly favorable at the turn of the year, and market sentiment switches quickly [4]. - Investment View: Neutral. Short - term supply - demand is average, and the rebound is more sentiment - driven [4]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, no action; for arbitrage, mainly conduct reverse arbitrage [4]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Review Glass - Price: This week, the price strengthened. The main contract closed at 1,144 (+57), and the Shahe spot price was 944 (-24) [6]. Soda Ash - Price: This week, the price oscillated. The main contract closed at 1,228 (+19), and the Shahe spot price was 1,199 (+77) [12]. Spread/Basis - Soda Ash: The 05 - 09 spread oscillated, and the basis oscillated downward [22]. - Glass: The 05 - 09 spread oscillated, and the basis oscillated downward [22]. 3.3. Supply - Demand Fundamental Data Glass Supply - Output has decreased. The reasons for supply reduction are the same as those mentioned in the main views. The production profit has improved slightly. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 186.40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5.00 yuan/ton; that using coal - made gas was - 73.83 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8.60 yuan/ton; that using petroleum coke was - 5.78 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 18.58 yuan/ton [25]. Glass Demand - Downstream deep - processing orders are average. The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 8.6 days, a week - on - week decrease of 10.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. Real - estate mid - to - back - end completion data is poor. From January to November, the housing construction area was 6.56066 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. The new construction area was 534.57 million square meters, a decrease of 20.5%. The completion area was 394.54 million square meters, a decrease of 18.0%. Inventory has been reduced, and the relevant inventory data is the same as that in the main views [30]. Soda Ash Supply - Supply has increased significantly, and the relevant output data is the same as that in the main views. The profit of soda ash plants has changed. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 57.85 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 39.36%. The theoretical profit of the combined - soda process (double - ton) was - 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12.68% [36]. Soda Ash Demand - Demand is weak. The short - term direct demand has weakened marginally, with the daily melting volume of float glass declining and that of photovoltaic glass stabilizing. Inventory has increased significantly, and the relevant inventory data is the same as that in the main views [37].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Bearish [6] - Polysilicon: Neutral (Suggested to wait and see) [7] - Lithium carbonate: Sideways [85] Core Views of the Report - The supply and demand of industrial silicon have both decreased, and with the strengthening expectation of polysilicon production cuts, the support below the price is weak [6]. - The fundamentals of polysilicon are weak, and the existing "anti-involution" measures may violate "anti-monopoly" regulations, leading to a revaluation of the polysilicon price. Future prices may continue to correct the previous policy expectations of "anti-involution." Due to the high speculative atmosphere in the polysilicon futures market and large price fluctuations, the exchange has introduced multiple risk control measures, resulting in poor contract liquidity [7]. - In terms of demand for lithium carbonate, there are more production suspensions and maintenance in the material sector in January, and the scheduled production has decreased month-on-month, but the prosperity is higher than in previous years. In terms of supply, the scheduled production in January has decreased, and there is no sign of large-scale production increase. The weekly data shows a slight increase in production and a slight accumulation of inventory, indicating obvious off-season characteristics. Coupled with the large short - term increase and a large number of profit - taking positions, the lithium carbonate price may fluctuate in the short term [85]. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon (SI) - **Supply**: The national weekly production is 80,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.77%; the number of open furnaces is 228, a week - on - week decrease of 3. The production in January is scheduled to be 377,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.87% and a year - on - year increase of 24.26% [6]. - **Demand**: The weekly production of polysilicon is 25,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.71%; the weekly production of silicone is 44,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.90%. The production of both in January is scheduled to decline significantly [6]. - **Inventory**: The visible inventory is 512,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.65%; the industry inventory is 457,900 tons, unchanged from the previous week; the warehouse receipt inventory is 54,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.42% [6]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9,088 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 0.03%; the gross profit per ton is - 97 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [6]. - **Investment View**: Bearish. The supply and demand of industrial silicon have both decreased, and the price support is weak [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Bearish on single - side trading. Pay attention to the disturbances of large manufacturers' production cuts and restarts and changes in environmental protection policies [6]. Polysilicon (PS) - **Supply**: The national weekly production is 25,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.71%. The production in January is scheduled to be 107,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.67% and a year - on - year increase of 14.19% [7]. - **Demand**: The weekly production of silicon wafers is 10.26GW, a week - on - week decrease of 0.97%. The factory inventory is 26.23GW, a week - on - week increase of 13.11% [7]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory is 311,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.65%, with continuous inventory accumulation; the registered warehouse receipts are 13,290 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.93%, with continuous increase [7]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 42,795 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 0.71%; the gross profit per ton is 16,415 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 7,437 yuan [7]. - **News**: The State Administration for Market Regulation has required the China Photovoltaic Industry Association and the interviewed enterprises not to engage in monopolistic behavior and has asked them to submit written rectification measures by January 20 [7]. - **Investment View**: Wait and see. The weak fundamentals of polysilicon and the potential violation of "anti - monopoly" regulations by "anti - involution" measures have led to a revaluation of the price. The contract liquidity is poor, and investors are reminded to pay attention to price fluctuations and liquidity risks [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see on single - side trading. Pay attention to the disturbances of large manufacturers' production cuts and restarts and changes in "anti - involution" policies [7]. Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply**: The national weekly production is 22,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.51%. The production in January is scheduled to be about 98,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.24% and a year - on - year increase of 56.78% [85]. - **Import**: In November, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 22,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.64% and a year - on - year increase of 14.66%. The import volume of lithium concentrate was 677,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.59% and a year - on - year increase of 40.42% [85]. - **Material Demand**: The weekly production of lithium iron phosphate is 99,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.34%; the weekly production of ternary materials is 18,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.55%. The production of both in January is scheduled to decline [85]. - **Terminal Demand**: In November, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.88 million, a month - on - month increase of 6.10% and a year - on - year increase of 20.03%; the sales volume was 1.823 million, a month - on - month increase of 6.27% and a year - on - year increase of 20.59%. The cumulative winning bid power/scale of energy storage from January to November was 59.48GW/160.39GWh, a year - on - year increase of 70.53%/118.93% [85]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 10.99 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.31%; the lithium salt factory inventory is 18,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.05%; the downstream inventory is 91,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.41%. The warehouse receipt inventory is 25,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 25.04% [85]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cash production cost of lithium mica for external ore purchase is 130,468 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 13.88%; the production profit is 2,792 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3,340 yuan/ton. The cash production cost of lithium spodumene is 134,245 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 13.64%; the production profit is 2,351 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3,619 yuan/ton [85]. - **Investment View**: Sideways. The lithium carbonate market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and the price may fluctuate in the short term [85]. - **Trading Strategy**: Sideways on single - side trading. Pay attention to the disturbances of ore production cuts, changes in environmental protection policies, and the disturbances of large power battery manufacturers [85].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Palladium, Platinum, Polycrystalline Silicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Coke, BR Rubber, PTA, LPG [1] - Bearish: Industrial Silicon, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, PVC [1] - Neutral: Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Iron Ore, Black Metals, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Soybean Oil, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Ethylene Glycol, Asian Styrene, Propylene, Butadiene [1] Core Viewpoints - The stock index is expected to maintain an upward trend in the short - term, driven by sufficient market funds and positive macro - fundamentals [1]. - The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks [1]. - Different commodities have different price trends based on their own supply - demand situations, policy factors, and macro - economic conditions [1]. Summary by Categories Stock Index - The stock index broke through strongly with heavy volume last week, opening up a new upward space. With positive macro - fundamental data, it is expected to maintain an upward pattern in the short - term [1]. Bond Futures - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices are expected to stabilize and rebound despite a recent high - level decline [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be strong due to supply - side restrictions [1]. - Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate as they are near the cost line despite weak industrial fundamentals [1]. - Zinc prices have risen recently due to good macro - sentiment, but caution is needed regarding the upside space [1]. - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level with increased risk, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies, macro - sentiment, and futures positions [1]. - Stainless steel futures are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and short - term operations are recommended [1]. - Tin prices are affected by market sentiment, and caution is needed for capital withdrawal [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious metals are expected to be strong in the short - term but with significant fluctuations [1]. - The short - term pattern of weak platinum and strong palladium may continue, and platinum can be bought at low prices or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be considered in the long - term [1]. - Industrial silicon is bearish due to production changes and reduced production schedules in related industries [1]. - Polycrystalline silicon has factors such as a traditional peak season for new energy vehicles,旺盛 demand for energy storage, and increased supply resumption [1]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to rise rapidly in the short - term [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Short - term sentiment and funds play a greater role than industrial contradictions, and long positions with stop - losses can be considered [1]. - Iron ore has obvious upward pressure, and chasing long positions is not recommended [1]. - Black metals are in a situation of weak reality and strong expectations, with potential supply disturbances [1]. - Glass prices are supported in the short - term but face over - supply pressure in the medium - term [1]. - Soda ash prices follow glass and are more loosely supplied in the medium - term, facing pressure [1]. - Coking coal may have room to rise if the "capacity reduction" expectation continues, but the actual increase is hard to judge [1]. - Coke has a similar logic to coking coal [1]. Oils - Palm oil is expected to be bearish in December according to MPOB data but may reverse later, and short - term rebounds due to macro - sentiment should be watched [1]. - Soybean oil has a strong fundamental and is recommended for long - allocation in oils [1]. - Rapeseed oil may have a trading logic change, and there is still room for price decline [1]. Agricultural Products - Cotton is in a situation of having support but no driving force, and future policies and market conditions should be watched [1]. - Sugar has a global surplus and increased domestic supply, and attention should be paid to capital changes [1]. - Corn sales progress has slowed but is still fast year - on - year, and the spot price is firm in the short - term [1]. - Bean粕 is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the USDA report [1]. - Pulp prices are affected by macro - commodity fluctuations, and cautious observation is recommended [1]. - Log prices are expected to fluctuate in a certain range [1]. - Live pigs' supply capacity still needs further release [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil has a risk of rising due to geopolitical factors, but there are also factors such as increased supply and weakening demand [1]. - Fuel oil is affected by factors similar to crude oil [1]. - Asphalt has factors such as high profit and potential supply changes [1]. - BR rubber has factors such as reduced upward momentum in the short - term and positive factors for future butadiene exports [1]. - PTA has a recent price increase not due to fundamental changes but has fundamental support in the future [1]. - Ethylene glycol rebounded due to supply - side news [1]. - Asian styrene is in a weak - balance state, and short - term upward momentum depends on overseas markets [1]. - Propylene has cost support and geopolitical risks [1]. - PVC is expected to face over - supply in 2026, and there is a possibility of capacity clearance [1]. - LPG has factors such as increased import costs, geopolitical risks, and changing inventory trends [1].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel, the market is expected to improve, but the industry is still weak. Unilateral strategies can adopt a volatile mindset, and hot-rolled coil cash-and-carry arbitrage can be rolled. [2] - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the fundamentals continue to be under pressure, with high supply and weak demand. There is a high risk of a decline despite policy support. [3] - For coking coal and coke, the spot market may start restocking after the futures rebound. It is advisable to buy on dips. [5] - For iron ore, the price has fallen back after hitting a resistance level. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Steel - Weekend spot prices fluctuated little with light trading volume. The macro liquidity is abundant, and the commodity capital rotation logic remains valid. The iron ore price rose first, causing the basis to weaken and attracting cash-and-carry arbitrage. The iron production is increasing, and the pressure on plate destocking persists. The price has support at low levels. [2] - Strategies include using a range-bound approach for unilateral trading, rolling hot-rolled coil cash-and-carry arbitrage, or using options to assist in spot procurement and sales. [7] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Market sentiment is changeable, leading to significant price fluctuations. The demand is affected by poor steel prices and low mill profits, and it is difficult to improve in the off-season. The supply is high despite low alloy plant profits. There are policy supports and cost pressures, but the outlook is uncertain. [3] - Industrial customers are advised to hedge at high prices. [7] Coking Coal and Coke - The spot market has shifted from a fifth-round price cut expectation to a 1 - 2 round price increase expectation. The futures market rose on Wednesday due to supply-side news. The long-term coal supply is expected to optimize. The industry data is weak in the off-season, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking. It is advisable to buy on dips. [5] - The recommended strategy is to buy on dips. [7] Iron Ore - The price fell after hitting a resistance level due to the resonance of the commodity index and market rumors. The valuation is moderately high, and there is inventory pressure. The steel demand has slightly declined, and the overall fluctuation is limited. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines. [6] - The recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines. [7] Futures and Spot Market Data - Futures: On January 9th, the closing prices, price changes, and price change percentages of far-month and near-month contracts of various products (such as RB2610, HC2610) are provided, along with cross-month spreads, price differences, and profit margins. [1] - Spot: On January 9th, the spot prices and price changes of various products (such as Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar) in different regions are presented, as well as basis values. [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market indices are experiencing upward momentum, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new ten-year high, while the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index shows mixed performance among its constituent stocks [1] - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) has seen a net inflow of 39.914 million yuan over the past three days, indicating strong investor interest [1] - Market conditions are favorable for a spring rally, supported by better-than-expected PMI and inflation data, increased willingness of external funds to enter the market, and upcoming technological industry catalysts [1] Group 2 - The CSI Petrochemical Industry Index is closely tracking the performance of the Petrochemical ETF and its linked funds, with the top three sectors being refining and trading (27.3%), chemical products (22.8%), and agricultural chemicals (20.3%) [2] - The "anti-involution" policy is identified as a core theme for the petrochemical industry, suggesting ongoing improvements in supply-demand dynamics and profitability [2]

Group 1 - The chemical sector experienced a reversal in early trading on January 12, 2026, with the CSI Chemical Industry Theme Index (000813) down by 0.63% as of 11:25 AM [1] - Key stocks in the sector showed mixed performance, with Guangwei Composite leading gains at 8.12%, followed by Bluestar Technology at 4.77% and Zhongjian Technology at 4.52%. Hebang Bio led the declines, with Sanmei Co. and Juhua Co. also falling [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized four key areas for 2026: "stability," "expansion," "innovation," and "growth," focusing on stabilizing growth in key industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals [1] Group 2 - CITIC Construction pointed out that despite rising short-term technical correction risks in the chemical sector, investment opportunities still exist. The outlook remains positive for the cross-year market, focusing on future industry hotspots, AI, semiconductors, and the resource price increase chain [1] - Guohai Securities noted that under the "anti-involution" policy, supply-side expansion in China's chemical industry is expected to slow significantly, potentially leading to a recovery in industry prosperity. The curtailment of disorderly capacity expansion may benefit leading companies with cost and efficiency advantages, marking a long-term upward trend in performance [1] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Chemical Industry Theme Index included Wanhua Chemical, Salt Lake Industry, and Cangge Mining, accounting for a total of 45.31% of the index [2] Group 3 - Investors can also explore investment opportunities in the chemical sector through the Chemical ETF Link Fund (013527) [3]

锂电池出口退税调整对碳酸锂品种的影响 研究院 新能源&有色组 研究员 期货研究报告|新能源专题报告 2026-01-12 陈思捷 师橙 021-60828513 shicheng@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3046665 投资咨询号：Z0014806 封帆 投资咨询号：Z0014660 从业资格号：F03149704 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 报告摘要 2026 年 1 月 8 日，国家财政部和税务总局公布了《财政部 税务总局关于调整光伏等产 品出口退税政策的公告》，其中提到自 2026 年 4 月 1 日起至 2026 年 12 月 31 日，将电 池产品的增值税出口退税率由 9%下调至 6%；2027 年 1 月 1 日起，取消电池产品增值 税出口退税。该政策是针对新能源行业"反内卷"的最新要求，再次强调了国家对锂电行 业未来发展的重视程度。本次分析将就退税调整政策及"反内卷"对锂电行业及碳酸锂品 种的影响进行探讨。 2025 年以后，我国锂电行业进入新的阶段，一方面国内企业市场占比不断提升，技术方 面全球领先，但另一方面国内企业竞争白热化，利润率不足，因此为了行业的长期 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market currently revolves around two major themes: the strong upward trend of non-ferrous and precious metals, driven by the demand logic of related commodities in the new energy and AI economies; and the anti-involution logic of low-valued varieties, which is gradually advancing. In 2026, the anti-involution theme may play a significant role in the market [2][5] - The overall volatility of the commodity market has increased this week. Adjustments were mainly affected by events such as the anti-monopoly of polysilicon and the cancellation of export tax rebates for some commodities, but this will not affect the anti-involution process [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Theme Analysis - The strong upward trend of non-ferrous and precious metals is essentially driven by the demand logic of related commodities in the new energy and AI economies. The anti-involution logic of low-valued varieties is gradually advancing, with the glass production showing an obvious decline, and the current daily melting volume at 150,000 tons, approaching the low limit in 2015 [2][5] Weekly Market Review - **Precious Metals**: Gold has shown a divergence and stagnant rise recently, and the gold-silver ratio is at a historically low level. Copper, aluminum, nickel and other metals have strong trends, and after a brief technical adjustment last week, they have strengthened again [4] - **Agricultural Products**: The overall trend is still expected to be volatile, with limited downside space but lacking the fundamental elements for a continuous upward trend. The global soybean supply and demand pattern remains weak, but the support for US soybeans above 1000 is still effective [4] - **Chemical Industry**: In 2026, it will generally operate within the anti-involution framework. The national policy emphasizes the supply and demand adjustment of the petrochemical sector, which is a key area. The production capacity of glass has declined significantly recently, and PTA has set an example, and other varieties may follow. The valuation of chemical products has reached the limit [4] - **Black Sector**: Steel is one of the key varieties for anti-involution, and the downside space for coal is also limited. The supply guarantee market is coming to an end. The supply guarantee is a short-term logic, while anti-involution is a more long-term logic [4] Data Tables - **Table of Plate Capital Flows**: The total capital flow is 56.114 billion yuan. The capital flows of precious metals, non-ferrous metals, black metals, energy, chemicals, feed breeding, oilseeds, and soft commodities are 2.326 billion yuan, 11.281 billion yuan, 4.278 billion yuan, 958 million yuan, 2.506 billion yuan, 2.745 billion yuan, 3.683 billion yuan, and 1.241 billion yuan respectively [9] - **Table of Black and Non-ferrous Weekly Data**: It shows the price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis of various black and non-ferrous varieties [9] - **Table of Energy and Chemical Weekly Data**: It shows the price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis of various energy and chemical varieties [11] - **Table of Agricultural Product Weekly Data**: It shows the price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis of various agricultural products [12]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,232, up 0.32% for the day and 2.35% year-to-date [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.92% to 4,120, with a year-to-date increase of 3.82% [1] - The US markets showed positive performance, with the Dow Jones up 0.48% and the S&P 500 up 0.65% [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - In the Hong Kong market, the financial sector increased by 0.20%, while the real estate sector rose by 0.32% [2] - Chinese stocks saw gains in materials, consumer discretionary, and integrated enterprises, while consumer staples and utilities declined [3] - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has risen by 11.8% since the beginning of 2026, outperforming the MSCI China Index which increased by 9.1% [5] Group 3: Economic Indicators - China's CPI growth has slightly increased, reaching a near two-year high, driven by rising food and gold jewelry prices [4] - The US non-farm payrolls for December fell short of expectations, indicating a weakening job market, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.4% [4] - The basic medical insurance expenditure in China showed a recovery with a 0.5% growth in 2025, compared to a 5.5% increase in 2024 [9] Group 4: Pharmaceutical Industry Insights - The market size for patented drugs in China is estimated to be around 300-400 billion RMB, with domestic innovative drugs accounting for about 1/3 of this market [6] - The global pharmaceutical market is projected to reach 1.74 trillion USD, with China's market size at 166 billion USD, representing only 9.5% of the global market [7] - The trend of Chinese innovative drugs going overseas is expected to continue, with a significant increase in BD (business development) transactions projected for 2025 [8]

去年，一个00后女孩在上海住了十几晚酒店，每次退房都说：皮肤过敏、房间不干净、影响睡眠，堪称 酒店界皮肤科豌豆公主，外加研究酒店羊毛的爱因斯坦。 01 周末，我刷到一条新闻，大致内容是国内开始规制恶意索赔，防止经营者合法权益受侵害。 结果怎么样？家家中招，十几家酒店房费全退，最终因为一张病历单被保洁人员捡到，这才戳破了她的 伪装。但如果没有被发现呢？这大概率会是一趟愉快、顺利、零成本的免费旅程。 而类似的事情，并不罕见。 去年9月，据上观新闻报道，一名男子凌某在一个月内多次购买多家高档酒店的月饼礼盒，随后统一反 馈月饼中藏有塑料片。 市场监管总局明确提出，不得滥用投诉举报权利牟取不正当利益。 背景则并不复杂，近年来，滥用投诉举报制度的索赔行为明显增多，一小部分人以打假为名行碰瓷之 实，刻意追求小错大赔、小过重罚，不少中小商家因此不堪其扰，甚至被迫关门停业。 针对这一现象，监管部门要求投诉人提供真实身份信息和相应事实依据，对虚假材料、冒用他人名义、 拒不配合核验身份的投诉不予受理，并明确对敲诈勒索、骗取赔偿等违法索赔终止调解，依法移送公安 机关处理。 看到这条新闻，我的第一反应是这些年酒店行业同样不堪其扰，甚至 ...