宏观反复，需求转淡 2025-6-3 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 有色金属团队】 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 行情回顾 宏观与基本面分析 目 录 铝价走势展望 01 02 03 04 01 行情回顾 01 沪铝行情回顾 02 宏观与铝基本面分析 17000 17500 18000 18500 19000 19500 20000 20500 21000 21500 22000 2025/05/28 2025/05/23 2025/05/20 2025/05/15 2025/05/12 2025/05/07 2025/04/29 2025/04/24 2025/04/21 2025/04/16 2025/04/11 2025/04/08 2025/04/02 2025/03/28 2025/03/25 2025/03/20 2025/03/17 2025/03/12 2025/03/07 2025/03/04 2025/02/27 2025/02/24 2025/02/1 ...

Market Performance - In May, global stock markets collectively rose, with the Nasdaq index leading the gains among major markets[4] - The US PCE for April showed a "cooling" inflation trend, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% and a year-on-year growth of 2.1%, below market expectations[4] - The VN30 index in Vietnam led the gains in the Asia-Pacific market[4] Economic and Trade Developments - Following the recent tariff legal disputes, negotiations are expected to return to the forefront, with a focus on US-India trade talks scheduled for June 5-6[4] - The Trump administration faces challenges in tariff negotiations, inflation, and interest rate battles, with the potential for inflation warnings to ease in June and July[4] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on the recovery of US dollar assets, particularly short-term bonds, while maintaining a trading bias towards long-term bonds[4] - In light of expected acceleration in tariff negotiations, US stocks are anticipated to rise[4] Risk Factors - Risks include potential unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and geopolitical tensions that could lead to increased market volatility[4]

Macroeconomic Overview - The economic situation in China showed some marginal changes in late May 2025, with a temporary tariff agreement reached between China and the US on May 12, leading to some improvement in export conditions, although exports to the US continued to decline [1][2] - Domestic economic activity indicators remained stable in late May, with high furnace operating rates and grinding machine utilization rates holding steady, indicating a maintained high level of activity in the automotive sector [10][19] - Real estate sales remained weak, with noticeable price corrections in some second-hand housing markets, particularly in second and third-tier cities, while first-tier cities also saw a temporary decline in second-hand housing price indices [19][20] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI data for May indicated a mild recovery in economic sentiment, although price levels faced downward pressure. The PMI was slightly higher than in April, with improvements in import and export indices, but domestic demand remained weak [23][28] Real Estate Market - The real estate market continued to show signs of weakness, with property sales remaining low since the Spring Festival, particularly in second and third-tier cities. First-tier cities also experienced a phase of price correction in the second-hand housing market [19][20] Export and Trade - Despite a temporary improvement in export conditions due to the tariff agreement, the overall export situation remains uncertain, with ongoing tariff frictions and diminishing "export rush" effects posing challenges for future export trends [2][19]

一、导语：一场裁决引发的全球震荡 2024年5月28日，一则来自美国国际贸易法院的裁决震撼全球——特朗普政府4月2日签署的"全球基准关税"政策被裁定越权无效，必须立即停止执行。这一 判决不仅终结了特朗普试图通过单边关税重塑全球贸易规则的努力，更可能成为中美经贸博弈的转折点。舆论场迅速分裂：有人欢呼"规则战胜了强权"，也 有人担忧"关税战只是换个战场继续"。在这场法律与权力的交锋中，中国是否真的"躺赢"？全球贸易又将走向何方？ 二、事件核心：关税政策为何被判"非法"？ 政策内容：特朗普的"全球征税蓝图" 根据此前披露的信息，特朗普政府于4月2日宣布对全球进口商品加征10%"最低基准关税"，并对部分国家（如中国）额外征收20%"芬太尼关税"。其官方理 由包括"保护美国经济""打击非法移民"和"应对供应链安全威胁"。然而，这一政策立即遭到多方反对，尤其是美国本土企业——它们认为此举推高成本，却 无助于解决实际问题。 法院裁决：宪法权力的清晰边界 美国（资料图） 美国国际贸易法院在裁决中明确指出，总统无权绕过国会行使贸易权力。这一结论基于两大法律依据： 宪法第一条第八款：明确规定国会拥有"规范对外贸易"的独家权力。 ...

Economic Indicators - In May 2025, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from April[1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index in May was 50.3%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from April[1] - The comprehensive PMI output index increased to 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from April[1] Factors Influencing PMI - The rise in manufacturing PMI was primarily driven by the implementation of proactive macro policies and a rebound in exports due to the easing of the US-China tariff conflict[2] - New credit and social financing in May were supported by a series of financial policy measures, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in public housing loan rates[2] - The new export orders index and import index rose to 47.5% and 47.1%, respectively, reflecting increases of 2.8 and 3.7 percentage points from the previous month[2] Challenges and Limitations - Despite the improvements, the manufacturing PMI remains in a contraction zone, influenced by high tariffs over 40% from the US and ongoing adjustments in the domestic real estate market[3] - High-frequency data indicated a decline in operating rates in most industries, except for those related to infrastructure investment, which saw an increase[3] Price Trends - The manufacturing PMI's price indices both fell slightly by 0.1 percentage points, remaining in a deep contraction zone, with PPI expected to decline further from -2.7% to around -3.1% year-on-year[4] - High-tech manufacturing PMI remained above 51.5% for four consecutive months, indicating strong growth and resilience in this sector[4] Service Sector Insights - The service sector PMI was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points from April, supported by increased tourism during the May Day holiday[5] - The construction PMI fell to 51.0%, down 0.9 percentage points, primarily due to a decline in real estate investment activities[5] Future Outlook - The implementation of steady growth policies is expected to provide crucial support for macroeconomic operations, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and accelerating infrastructure investment[6] - The manufacturing PMI is projected to rise further to around 49.7% in June, driven by the "export rush" effect following the easing of tariffs[6]

【白银期货行情表现】 在市场高度关注美联储利率政策走向之际，鲍威尔并未在讲话中就美国经济与未来利率前景发表看法。 有分析称，鲍威尔此番有意"保持沉默"或许是为了避免在关键数据发布前提前影响市场预期。 美国芝加哥联储主席奥斯坦·古尔斯比表示，如果特朗普政府的关税措施最终没有最初公布的那样激 进，那么美联储的政策利率在未来15个月内"很可能会明显降低"。 美联储理事沃勒表示，假设有效关税税率接近较低关税情形，潜在通胀继续朝着2%的目标取得进展， 劳动力市场保持稳健，将支持今年晚些时候实施"好消息式"的降息。 【机构观点】 银河期货：贵金属市场虽然短期强势 但中期可能仍然以宽幅震荡为主 6月3日，沪银主力暂报8423元/克，涨幅达2.42%，今日沪银主力开盘价8520元/克，截至目前最高8522 元/克，最低8419元/克。 【宏观消息】 川普威胁对欧盟征收50%关税。川普不断的对全球市场进行发难，风险偏好再度回落。从特朗普威胁欧 盟开始，意味着关税战周期重启。 美国总统特朗普表示，将把进口钢铁的关税从25%提高至50%。同时特朗普在社交媒体表态中国未遵守 5月的相关贸易协定，但提到希望双边高层会谈解决问题。 俄乌 ...

Focus Review - The article discusses the potential impact of Trump's decision to raise steel tariffs to 50%, which may lead to retaliatory measures from the EU, indicating ongoing uncertainty in global trade policies [1] - The article highlights that the core asset pricing power is gradually shifting towards Hong Kong, with the potential for more quality leading companies to list in Hong Kong, catalyzing a shift in A-share market style towards core assets [2][3] Equity Market - Hong Kong's structural changes and cyclical improvements are expected to attract global allocation funds, which may spill over into A-shares, benefiting core assets with high and stable ROE [2] - The article notes that the demand for convertible bonds may increase due to a mismatch in supply and demand, potentially leading to a bull market in this sector [3] Industry Research - The article mentions that the consumer, cyclical, and self-controlled sectors are likely to gain more attention as A-share earnings improve despite external tariff disturbances [8] - It also points out that the Hong Kong innovative drug sector is entering a "harvest period," with most valuations still within a reasonable range, indicating long-term growth potential [9] - The defense and military sector is highlighted as leading in performance, driven by expectations of accelerated domestic engine development due to potential U.S. export restrictions [10] Macro and Fixed Income - The article discusses the downward shift in the central rate of funding, which is expected to benefit short-term assets, as the bond market returns to a fundamental pricing logic [16] - It emphasizes that the convertible bond market may experience a bull market due to supply-demand mismatches, with a gradual upward trend expected in the coming years [18] Asset Allocation - The article suggests a balanced and defensive asset allocation strategy in response to external risks, highlighting the importance of dividend assets and technology innovation investments in the A-share market [20] - It notes that the Hong Kong market is stabilizing due to low valuations and policy support, with increasing domestic pricing power as southbound capital flows continue [20]

Group 1: Market Reactions to Tariff Increases - The announcement by President Trump to raise tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50% has heightened concerns about global economic impacts, leading to significant declines in U.S. stock markets, with the Nasdaq index dropping as much as 1.7% intraday before closing down 0.85% [1] - Asian markets reacted negatively, with South Korean steel stocks falling sharply and Japan's Nikkei 225 index dropping over 1.3% following the tariff news [1] - The German Steel Federation expressed concerns that the U.S. tariff increase would escalate transatlantic trade conflicts and exert significant pressure on the European steel industry [1] Group 2: Commodity Market Movements - The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has intensified market risk aversion, leading to a significant rise in gold and silver prices, driven by a weaker U.S. dollar [2] - The copper market is experiencing upward pressure due to supply constraints, with COMEX copper futures rising over 5% amid ongoing inventory depletion and potential supply shortages [3] - Despite a rise in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions, analysts suggest that OPEC+ production plans may limit the potential for sustained price increases in the oil market [3] Group 3: Future Market Expectations - Analysts predict that after the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, commodities such as copper and gold may open higher, with copper potentially exceeding 80,000 yuan/ton and gold surpassing 780 yuan/gram, although there are risks of pullbacks [4] - The domestic futures market is expected to remain weak due to sluggish domestic demand and uncertainties in external demand, with a focus on upcoming macroeconomic policies that may stimulate growth [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuating stance of the Trump administration regarding the trade war with China, highlighting the significant impact on both the U.S. economy and public sentiment towards Trump's policies [2][4][24]. Trade War Dynamics - Trump's trade war has led to a chaotic global economic environment, with the U.S. imposing tariffs on various countries, particularly China, in an attempt to exert pressure [4][24]. - The tariffs on Chinese goods have escalated to 145%, while China retaliated with tariffs of 125%, resulting in a substantial decoupling of U.S.-China trade relations [5][9]. Impact on U.S. Economy - The high tariffs have caused American consumers to face increased living costs, as many goods are sourced from China, which are typically cheaper and of good quality [7][11]. - U.S. farmers have been adversely affected, losing significant market share to countries like Brazil for agricultural exports, leading to dissatisfaction among American farmers [9][11]. Shift in Trump's Strategy - After facing backlash from the American public and economic downturns, Trump sought to ease tensions with China, leading to a temporary agreement on tariffs [12][16]. - Despite reaching an agreement, Trump continues to target China in other areas, such as technology and education, indicating a persistent adversarial approach [14][18]. Future Relations - Trump's initial plans to visit China have been stalled, reflecting a lack of genuine intent to negotiate, as he has not lifted tariffs [20][22]. - The article suggests that Trump's approach may ultimately harm the U.S. economy more than it benefits, as American industries rely heavily on Chinese manufacturing and resources [18][24].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade war initiated by the U.S. under Trump's administration is significantly impacting the development of the sixth-generation fighter jet, particularly due to the reliance on rare earth materials supplied predominantly by China [1][9][12]. Group 1: Impact on Military Development - The U.S. military's sixth-generation fighter jet project, specifically the F-47, is heavily dependent on rare earth elements such as neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium, which are crucial for high-performance magnets and radar systems [7][12]. - The recent approval for Boeing to produce the F-47 occurred just before China announced new export controls on rare earth materials, creating uncertainty for the U.S. military's development plans [9][12]. - The lack of sufficient rare earth supply could lead to significant delays or even halts in the production of critical military components, affecting the overall military readiness of the U.S. [7][12][18]. Group 2: China's Export Control Measures - China's new export control measures restrict seven categories of medium and heavy rare earth elements, which are vital for military, aerospace, and high-tech applications [12][26]. - The majority of medium and heavy rare earth supplies come from China, which possesses the largest reserves globally, creating a strong supply chain that the U.S. heavily relies on [12][19]. - The implementation of these controls has led to a near halt in rare earth exports from China, with U.S. companies facing potential inventory shortages and uncertainty in securing new supplies [26][28]. Group 3: Strategic Implications and Alternatives - The strategic significance of rare earth elements is underscored by their essential role in various industries, including military, aerospace, and high-tech sectors, where their absence could severely hinder production capabilities [12][16]. - While the U.S. may consider sourcing rare earth materials from other countries, challenges such as the lack of processing technology and infrastructure in those nations limit the feasibility of such alternatives [19][20]. - The U.S. government is exploring deep-sea mining as a potential solution to the rare earth supply crisis, but this approach faces significant technological and environmental hurdles, making it a long-term and uncertain solution [24][28].