理性预期回归挤出情绪溢价，PX、PTA估值存回调修复压力 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 05月21日，PX 主力合约收6766.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨1.47%，基差 为-1.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4788.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨1.18%，基 差为112.0元/吨。 成本端，05月21日，布油主力合约收盘65.6美元/桶。WTI收62.25美元/ 桶。 市场继续关注俄乌、美伊局势，油价短期震荡格局对成本端支撑有限。涤 丝库存压力缓解，未来关注下游纱厂备货节奏。 1/8 二、产业链价格监测 | | 数据指标 | 2025-05-21 | 2025-05-20 | 変化 | 近日涨跌幅 | 走勢 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX期货 | 主力合约价格 | 6,766 | 6,668 | 98 | 1.47% | | ...

化工日报 | 2025-05-22 PTA装置陆续重启,关注成本支撑 市场要闻与数据 在原油上涨和主流供应商减合约消息下，周三PTA期货震荡上行，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差企稳。 市场分析 成本端，市场近期关注点在宏观和地缘上反复切换，目前暂无消息指引，油价拉锯盘整，继续关注美伊核谈和俄 乌谈判方面进展。 汽油和芳烃方面，汽油裂解近期有所反弹，但季节性表现仍弱于前两年。芳烃方面，今年的调油需求已不值得过 多的期待，国内外间歇性调油需求依靠石脑油基本可以满足，限制芳烃进入汽油池的积极性。3~5月上旬韩国出口 到美国的芳烃调油料甲苯+MX+PX有明显下降，近期关注利润恢复下PX短流程装置恢复情况。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN258美元/吨(环比变动-13.25美元/吨）。近期近期宏观利好提振，同时多套px装置计划外 损失增加，进一步收紧PX近月供需预期，市场货源偏紧，加之窗口内PX买气活跃，外商挺价积极，进一步支撑价 格上行，PXN低位反弹，当前已脱离低估值水平。后续5月国内PX检修装置将陆续重启，供应预计有所增加，但PTA 新装置投产下PX延续去库。整体来看，短期市场情绪好转和计划外检修增多下PXN反弹明 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 67,000 tons, a 1.47% decrease from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 73,000 tons, an 8.96% increase from the previous week. The demand has increased [7]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 599,000 tons, a 0.50% increase; the sample - enterprise inventory was 247,600 tons, a 6.53% decrease; the main - port inventory was 132,000 tons, a 0.75% decrease [8]. - Cost: In the Xinjiang region, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 3,615 yuan/ton, and the cost support increased during the dry season [7]. - Expectation: The industrial silicon 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 7,760 - 7,970 [8]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon output was 21,400 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The planned output for May is 94,800 tons, a 0.62% decrease from the previous month [10]. - Demand: The silicon - wafer output last week was 12.42 GW, a 0.56% increase; the inventory was 194,400 tons, a 7.22% increase. The production of silicon wafers is currently in a loss state. The planned output for May is 54.3 GW, a 6.94% decrease from the previous month. The battery - cell output in April was 65.55 GW, a 14.35% increase; the external - sales factory inventory of battery cells last week was 7.91 GW, a 76.56% increase. The production of battery cells is currently in a loss state. The planned output for May is 60.84 GW, a 7.18% decrease. The component output in April was 59.4 GW, a 16.47% increase; the expected component output for May is 53.03 GW, a 10.72% decrease. The domestic monthly inventory is 51.3 GW, an 11.74% increase; the European monthly inventory is 41.28 GW, a 14.35% decrease. The component production is currently profitable [10]. - Cost: The average cost of polysilicon N - type materials in the industry is 36,330 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 170 yuan/ton [10]. - Expectation: The polysilicon 2507 contract is expected to fluctuate between 35,215 - 36,505 [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - Fundamental analysis: Bullish. The cost support has increased, and the supply - side production plan has decreased [7][8]. - Basis: On May 21st, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 8,600 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 675 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. Bullish [8]. - Inventory: The overall inventory situation is mixed, with an increase in social inventory and decreases in sample - enterprise and main - port inventories. Bearish [8]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 09 contract closed below the MA20. Bearish [8]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and the shorts increased. Bearish [8]. Polysilicon - Fundamental analysis: Bullish. The cost is stable, and although the supply - side production plan is decreasing, the demand is expected to recover in the medium term [10][11]. - Basis: On May 21st, the price of N - type polysilicon material was 36,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 07 contract was 640 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. Bullish [12]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 250,000 tons, a 2.72% decrease, at a low level compared to the same period in history. Neutral [12]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 07 contract closed below the MA20. Bearish [12]. - Main position: The main position is net long, and the longs decreased. Bullish [11]. Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of most contracts decreased, with the 01 contract down 1.32%, the 02 contract down 1.09%, etc. [18]. - Spot prices of various types of silicon also showed a downward trend, with the price of East - China non - oxygen - passing 553 silicon down 1.15% [18]. - Inventory data showed changes in different regions, with some inventories increasing and some decreasing [18]. Polysilicon - Futures prices of some contracts increased, and the prices of various silicon - related products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed different trends, with some remaining unchanged and some having small fluctuations [20]. Downstream Market Analysis Organic Silicon - DMC production: The daily production capacity utilization rate was 60.11%, remaining unchanged from the previous period and lower than the historical average [41]. - Price and cost: The price of DMC and other organic - silicon products remained stable, and the cost and profit situation showed certain characteristics, with the profit of DMC at - 301 yuan/ton [18][41]. - Inventory: The monthly inventory of DMC was 105,000 tons, a 7.49% decrease [18]. Aluminum Alloy - Price: The daily price of SMM aluminum - alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20,400 yuan/ton [18]. - Supply and demand: The monthly production of primary - aluminum - based aluminum - alloy ingots increased by 4.45%, while the monthly production of recycled aluminum - alloy ingots decreased by 5.28% [18]. - Inventory: The weekly social inventory of aluminum - alloy ingots was 13,900 tons, a 5.44% decrease [18]. Polysilicon - Cost: The average cost of the polysilicon industry remained stable at 36.33 yuan/kg [20]. - Price: The prices of various polysilicon products showed a downward trend, with the price of granular silicon down 1.52% [20]. - Supply and demand: The supply and demand situation showed certain changes, with the monthly supply increasing by 6.66% and the monthly consumption increasing by 7.03% [20]. - Inventory: The weekly total inventory was 250,000 tons, a 2.72% decrease, and the domestic component inventory increased by 11.74% [20].

| CCFEI价格指数:涤纶DTY 2025/5/21 | 元/吨 | 8900.00 | 8900.00 | 0.00% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶POY 2025/5/21 CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY68D 下 | 元/吨 | 7250.00 | 7250.00 | 0.00% | | 2025/5/21 | 元/吨 | 7250.00 | 7250.00 | 0.00% | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY150D 2025/5/21 | 元/吨 | 7200.00 | 7200.00 | 0.00% | | 游 CCFEI价格指数:涤纶短纤 2025/5/21 | 元/吨 | 6630.00 | 6620.00 | 0.15% | | 2025/5/21 CCFEI价格指数:聚酯切片 | 元/吨 | 6000.00 | 5995.00 | 0.08% | | CCFEI价格指数:瓶级切片 2025/5/21 | 元/吨 | 6050.00 | 6000.00 | 0.83% | | 装置信息 西北一套120万吨PTA装置计划5 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The cost support has weakened due to the decline in raw materials and electricity prices during the wet season in the southwest region. There are no bright spots on the consumer side, and high industry inventories are suppressing prices. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in the southwest and the impact of macro - sentiment [2]. - In the short term, actual spot transactions are extremely rare. Downstream enterprises are mainly consuming inventory. Near - month contracts are still trading based on delivery games, while far - month contracts are trading on weak reality and weak expectations [6]. 3. Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On May 19, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price continued to bottom out. The main contract 2507 opened at 8150 yuan/ton and closed at 8130 yuan/ton, a change of (-155) yuan/ton or (-1.87)% from the previous day's settlement. The position of the main contract 2507 was 155,038 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 66,384 lots, a change of - 49 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon declined. The price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon in East China was 8800 - 9100 (-150) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9600 - 10100 (-150) yuan/ton. The price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon in Xinjiang was 8100 - 8300 (-100) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8100 - 8300 (-100) yuan/ton. Some silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, Shanghai, and the northwest region also continued to decline. The price of 97 silicon also declined [1]. - According to SMM statistics, the quotation of organic silicon DMC was 11300 - 11600 (0) yuan/ton. It is reported that the market trading volume is expected to recover faster in mid - to late May, and the low - level inventory reduction of monomer enterprises has been effective recently. Although the operation of monomer enterprises in North and Southwest China has recovered, those in the Northwest are still in the maintenance period [1]. - **Strategy** - For single - side trading, focus on range operations, and upstream enterprises should sell hedging at high prices. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On May 19, 2025, the main contract 2506 of polysilicon futures fluctuated. It opened at 36,900 yuan/ton and closed at 37,150 yuan/ton, a change of 0.51% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 28,688 (32,702 the previous day) lots, and the trading volume was 72,986 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The quotation of polysilicon re - feedstock was 34.00 - 36.00 (0.00) yuan/kg; dense polysilicon was 33.00 - 35.00 (0.00) yuan/kg; cauliflower - shaped polysilicon was 30.00 - 32.00 (0.00) yuan/kg; granular silicon was 33.00 - 34.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, N - type silicon was 37.00 - 39.00 (-0.75) yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 34.00 - 36.00 (0.00) yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased, while the inventory of silicon wafers increased month - on - month. The latest statistics show that the polysilicon inventory was 25.00 tons, a month - on - month change of - 2.27%, the silicon wafer inventory was 19.44GW, a month - on - month change of 7.22%, the weekly polysilicon output was 21,400.00 tons, with a month - on - month change of 0.00%, and the silicon wafer output was 12.42GW, a month - on - month change of 0.50% [4]. - **Strategy** - For single - side trading, focus on range operations. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7]. Silicon Wafers, Battery Cells, and Components - **Silicon Wafers** - The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.94 (0.00) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.28 (-0.02) yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.08 (-0.02) yuan/piece [6]. - **Battery Cells** - The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon M10 battery cells were about 0.26 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon 210RN battery cells were 0.26 (0.00) yuan/W; and HJT210 half - cell batteries were 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [6]. - **Components** - The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.69 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.69 - 0.70 (0.00) yuan/W [6]. Factors to Watch - Resumption of production in the southwest and changes in the operation in the northwest [2][5]. - Changes in the operation of polysilicon enterprises [5]. - Policy disturbances [5]. - Macro and capital sentiment [2][5]. - Operation of organic silicon enterprises [5]. - Impact of industry self - discipline on upstream and downstream operations [7]. - Impact of futures listing on the spot market [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The PTA futures market saw a decline on Monday, with a fair trading atmosphere in the spot market and a slight loosening of the spot basis after strengthening [1]. - In the cost - end, as summer approaches, demand will seasonally increase, and refinery operating rates will rise. The market can maintain a tight balance in Q3, but an oversupply situation is expected in Q4. Short - term attention should be paid to the developments in the US - Iran and Russia - Ukraine situations [2]. - Gasoline cracking has rebounded recently but is seasonally weaker than in the past two years. The blending demand for aromatics this year is not promising, and the intermittent blending demand at home and abroad can be basically met by naphtha, limiting the enthusiasm for aromatics to enter the gasoline pool [2]. - For PX, the PXN was $273/ton (a decrease of $9.38/ton compared to the previous period). Due to recent macro - positive factors and unexpected losses of multiple PX plants, the supply - demand outlook for the near - term PX has tightened, and the price has been supported. In May, domestic PX plants under maintenance will gradually restart, but PX will continue to be destocked due to the commissioning of new PTA plants [2]. - For TA, the spot basis of the TA main contract is 198 yuan/ton (an increase of 6 yuan/ton compared to the previous period), and the PTA spot processing fee is 414 yuan/ton (a decrease of 16 yuan/ton compared to the previous period). Supported by strong demand from downstream polyester plants, PTA will continue to be significantly destocked in May, and the supply will gradually return later [3]. - The polyester operating rate is 95.0% (an increase of 0.8% compared to the previous period). With the improvement of the macro - environment and the rebound of raw material prices, the operating rates of downstream weaving and texturing have quickly recovered. After the Sino - US negotiations achieved positive results and tariffs were reduced, textile and clothing orders improved significantly, and the inventory of filament yarn decreased significantly. The average monthly polyester load in May may increase instead of decrease [3]. - The PF spot production profit is - 8 yuan/ton (a decrease of 11 yuan/ton compared to the previous period). Although the market outlook has improved due to tariff benefits, downstream customers are cautious due to the rapid rise in raw material prices. Future attention should be paid to the cost trend of polyester raw materials [3]. - The bottle - chip spot processing fee is 314 yuan/ton (a decrease of 81.95 yuan/ton compared to the previous period). With most domestic polyester bottle - chip plants in operation, the market supply is gradually increasing, and the market price is expected to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the news of plant maintenance due to rising costs [3]. - In terms of strategies, PX/PTA/PF/PR are expected to be strong in the short - term. After consecutive rapid increases, the current valuations of PXN and PTA are no longer low, and the absolute prices have returned to the level before the corresponding tariffs. The market sentiment has declined. Future attention should be paid to the downstream negative feedback and the cost support from crude oil. The polyester industry chain is expected to remain strong in the short - term, but there is a demand for profit - taking, and the risk of chasing high prices should be vigilant. For cross - period trading, a positive spread strategy is recommended [4]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report includes figures on the TA main contract, its basis, and cross - period spreads; the PX main contract, its basis, and cross - period spreads; the PTA East China spot basis; and the short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - gloss pure - white basis [9][10][12] Upstream Profit and Spread - Figures cover PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20] International Spread and Import - Export Profit - It includes figures on the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [25][27] Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Figures show the operating rates of Chinese, South Korean, and Taiwanese PTA plants, as well as Chinese and Asian PX plants [28][31][32] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures are provided for PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [34][37][38] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures include filament yarn production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament yarn factory inventory days, and the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving, texturing, and dyeing industries [46][48][58] PF Detailed Data - Figures cover 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, regenerated cotton - type staple fiber load, the difference between original and regenerated fibers, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [70][72][82] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures include polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, the difference between East China water bottle chips and regenerated 3A - grade white bottle chips, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [89][94][96]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年5月20日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧553生产亏损为3615元/吨，枯水期成本支撑有所上升。 2、基差: 05月19日，华东不通氧现货价8850元/吨，09合约基差为650元/吨，现货升水期货。 偏多。 3、库存: 社会库存为59.9万吨，环比增加0.50%,样本企业库存为247600吨，环比减少6.53%,主要 港口库存为13.2万吨，环比减少0.75%。 偏空。 4、盘面: MA20向下，09合约期价收于MA20下方。 偏空。 5、主力持仓: 主力持仓净空，空减。 偏空。 6、预期: 供给端排产有所减少，处于历史平均水平附近，需求复苏处于低位，成本支撑有所上升。 工业硅2509：在8025-8235区间 ...

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, the supply and demand are both decreasing, and the inventory accumulation situation persists. The long - term supply pattern is in surplus, and the demand is difficult to increase. The supply at the low level in the market is maintained for a short time, and the futures price lacks the power to rise continuously. The supply - demand contradiction will become prominent again, and the price will enter the downward channel again, with the futures market likely to show a weak and fluctuating trend [8]. - For glass, the overall profit in the float glass production field has increased slightly, and the production volume remains relatively stable. The demand market is relatively dull, and the downstream inventory has accumulated. The futures price is approaching the production cost line, and the cost support may appear in the short - term. The short - term market has an expectation of rush - exporting, which brings some support to the market, but the supply - demand game is still the key factor for the subsequent trend [9][10]. Summary by Section 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data on May 19th**: The main soda ash futures contract SA509 opened low and went lower, with a closing price of 1,284 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton, and a decline of 1.91%, and an increase of 116,309 lots in positions. The FG509 glass futures contract closed at 1,018 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton, with a gain of 0.19%, and a decrease of 54,017 lots in positions [7]. - **Soda Ash Situation**: The weekly output of soda ash in China dropped to 677,700 tons in the week of May 15th, a month - on - month decrease of 8.52%, and the capacity utilization rate dropped to 80.27%. The enterprise inventory of heavy soda ash was 880,000 tons, continuing the inventory accumulation trend. The market supply is in a long - term surplus pattern, and the demand is difficult to increase, so the price will likely decline [8]. - **Glass Situation**: The overall profit in the float glass production field has increased slightly, and the production volume remains stable. The demand market is dull, and the downstream inventory has accumulated. The futures price is approaching the cost line, and the cost support may appear in the short - term. The short - term market has an expectation of rush - exporting, which brings some support to the market [9][10]. 2. Industry News - **Real Estate**: In April, the sales price of new commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities was flat month - on - month, down 2.1% year - on - year, and the decline narrowed by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous month. The sales price of second - hand residential buildings in first - tier cities decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, down 3.2% year - on - year, and the decline narrowed by 0.9 percentage points compared with the previous month [11]. - **Manufacturing Loans**: From January to April, the Export - Import Bank of China invested more than 180 billion yuan in medium - and long - term loans for the manufacturing industry, and the balance of medium - and long - term loans for the manufacturing industry at the end of April was 1.8 trillion yuan [11]. - **Sodium Bicarbonate Market**: The sodium bicarbonate market in Henan is running weakly, and the downstream makes rigid demand purchases. The mainstream ex - factory price of food - grade sodium bicarbonate is estimated to be between 1,180 - 1,260 yuan/ton [11]. - **Float Glass Market**: The prices of the domestic float glass market are mainly stable, with some fluctuations. The prices in North China have fluctuated, the prices in East China have decreased in some areas, the prices of colored glass in Central China have increased in some factories, the prices in South China are stable, the prices in Northeast China have decreased, and the prices in Southwest China have fluctuated [11]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of soda ash and glass active contracts, the weekly output and enterprise inventory of soda ash, the market price of heavy soda ash in Central China, and the production volume of flat glass, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [17][18][16].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no explicit overall industry investment rating provided in the report. However, investment suggestions are given for different sectors, including "long - position reduction", "short - selling opportunities", "interval trading", etc. [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market shows complex trends due to various factors such as economic data, policy changes, and supply - demand relationships across different commodity sectors. The overall market sentiment is affected by factors like the US consumer confidence index, inflation expectations, and geopolitical events. [1] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial - For stock index futures, it is recommended to consider reducing long positions and be vigilant about further adjustment risks [1]. - The bond futures are supported by asset shortage and weak economy in the long - term, but the short - term rise is suppressed by the central bank's interest - rate risk reminder [1]. - Gold prices may enter a consolidation phase in the short - term, while the long - term upward logic remains unchanged. Silver prices may be more resilient than gold in the short - term due to potential tariff impacts [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper prices are expected to be weak in the short - term due to lower downstream demand and other factors [1]. - Aluminum prices will remain strong in the short - term supported by low inventory and alumina price rebounds. Alumina prices continue to rise due to supply disruptions [1]. - Zinc fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities [1]. - Nickel prices will oscillate in the short - term and face long - term oversupply pressure. Short - term interval trading is suggested [1]. - Stainless steel futures will oscillate in the short - term with long - term supply pressure. Interval trading is recommended [1]. - Tin prices have strong fundamental support before the复产 of Wa State [1]. Chemicals - Silicon presents a situation of strong supply, weak demand, and low - valuation, with no improvement in demand and high inventory pressure [1]. - Lithium carbonate has no further supply contraction, increasing inventory, and downstream rigid - demand purchasing [1]. - For methanol, the short - term spot market will trade in a range, and the long - term market may turn from strong to weak and oscillate [1]. - PVC has weak fundamentals but is boosted by macro - factors, and its price will oscillate [1]. - LPG prices are expected to decline in the short - term due to tariff easing and demand off - season [1]. Black Metals - Rebar is in a window of switching from peak to off - season, with cost loosening and a supply - demand surplus, lacking upward momentum [1]. - Iron ore prices will oscillate, and manganese ore prices are expected to decline due to oversupply [1]. - Coke and coking coal are in a relatively oversupplied situation, and it is recommended to take advantage of price rebounds for hedging [1]. Agricultural Products - Brazilian sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record high, but it may be affected by crude oil prices [1]. - Grains are expected to oscillate, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended considering the tight annual supply - demand situation [1]. - Soybean prices are expected to oscillate due to lack of speculation and market pressure [1]. - Cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly as the domestic cotton - spinning industry enters the off - season [1]. - Pulp prices will oscillate due to lack of upward momentum after the tariff - related boost [1]. - Livestock prices will oscillate as the pig inventory recovers and the market is in a state of abundant supply expectation [1]. Energy - Crude oil and fuel oil prices are affected by the progress of the Iran nuclear deal and the end of the Sino - US trade negotiation drive [1]. - Asphalt prices will oscillate as cost drags, inventory returns to normal, and demand slowly recovers [1]. - Natural rubber prices are affected by rainfall, cost support, and the end of the trade negotiation drive [1].

| 19 E K # 5 | 日度策略参 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势研判 | 行业板块 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 品種 | 股指 | 震荡 | 持有的多头头寸考虑减仓,警惕进一步调整风险。 | 110 | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 容间。 | 宏观金融 | | | | | | | 短期金价或进入盘整;但中长期上涨逻辑尚未改变。明终 | 農汤 | 黄金 | 整体跟随黄金,但关税超预期结果将利好白银商品属性,因此短 | 農法 | 三 千尺 | | | | 期银价韧性或强于黄金。 | 近期市场情绪好转,铜价走高,但下游需求转弱,铜价存在回调 | 股 | | | | | | | 风险。 | 电解铝自身产业面无明显矛盾,在中美贸易谈判结果超预期情况 | 看头 | | | | | | | 下,铝价延续反弹走势。 | 铝土矿及氧化铝供应扰动有所提升,氧化铝供需格局有所好转 | 氧化铝 | | | | | | | 短期价格或进一步反弹。 | 步入淡季终端需求明显走弱,叠加 ...