Core Viewpoint - Spot gold prices have gradually recovered to the range of $3980-$3990 after a sell-off, but current price momentum appears insufficient to challenge the psychological level of $4000 [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The ten-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 4.16%, reaching a one-month high, which could continue to support the dollar and exert pressure on the gold market [1] - The bond market is showing signs of an independent trend, influenced by slightly better-than-expected U.S. private sector economic data, which may impact the Federal Reserve's decision in December [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - Traders are currently pricing in a 61% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, but this is not guaranteed [1] - Any adjustments to the market's pricing of rate cut expectations will have a significant impact on gold in the coming weeks [1] Group 3: Seasonal Trends - The upcoming period from December to January is traditionally a bullish season for precious metals [1]

Group 1: Dollar Index Movement - On November 4, the dollar index broke through the 100-point mark, reaching its highest level since August 2025[2] - The increase in the dollar index is supported by rising U.S. Treasury yields, which increased from approximately 4.0% to around 4.1%[3] - The market's expectation for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve dropped from 92% to 69% following comments from Fed Chair Powell[3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - U.S. retail sales showed a month-on-month increase of 0.6% in August, significantly above the market expectation of 0.2%[5] - The consumer confidence index for October was reported at 53.6, slightly down from 55.1 in September but up from a low of 52.2 in Q2[5] - The manufacturing PMI for October was recorded at 48.7, with new orders showing an upward trend, indicating a potential recovery in domestic demand[5] Group 3: External Factors Influencing the Dollar - Political instability in Japan and Europe has weakened the yen and euro, contributing to the dollar's strength[8] - The U.S. government shutdown has led to tighter liquidity conditions, with bank reserves dropping to $2.8 trillion, the lowest level in 2025[11] - The overnight secured funding rate (SOFR) surged to 4.22% on October 31, indicating a tightening liquidity environment[11] Group 4: Future Outlook - The dollar index is expected to fluctuate around the 100-point mark in Q4 2025, influenced by various factors including government reopening and judicial decisions on tariffs[19] - The potential appointment of a new Fed Chair may lean towards dovish signals, which could lead to a decline in the dollar index[19] - The outcome of the U.S. Supreme Court hearing on tariffs could significantly impact market expectations and the dollar's trajectory[20]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Wednesday saw a slight rebound in precious metal prices, with gold and silver maintaining an overall oscillatory pattern. The U.S. ADP employment data exceeded expectations, and the number of newly - employed people stopped falling and rebounded, recovering from the previous two months' weak employment situation. After the data disclosure, the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields rebounded slightly, while other assets showed a relatively calm performance. Overseas equities oscillated, and commodities rebounded strongly in the short - term [1][4]. - Precious metal prices currently lack significant drivers and are expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term. The trading window in December should be closely watched, as the space for interest rate cuts next year may be speculated around the December FOMC meeting. Additionally, U.S. Treasury official Bessent stated that the nominee for the new Fed Chair is expected to be confirmed before Christmas, and the independence risk brought by personnel changes may become a bullish driver at that time. In the long run, excessive debt issuance and de - globalization are the core factors driving the decline of the U.S. dollar's credit. As a currency beyond sovereignty, gold remains the preferred asset to hedge against the risk of the U.S. dollar's credit. The global central banks' gold - buying trend persists, and the long - term price center of gold is expected to rise. The trend of silver remains consistent with that of gold. In the short term, it is expected to adjust oscillatory in tandem, and in the long run, the depreciation of credit currency will spill over, and the suppression of silver price elasticity due to the relaxed expectation of a U.S. soft landing, so the silver price center is expected to move up in the long term following gold [4][5]. - The weekly price of London gold is expected to be in the range of [3800, 4200], and the price of London silver is expected to be in the range of [46, 52] [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - In October, the U.S. ADP employment increased by 42,000 people, exceeding the expected increase of 28,000 people. The previous value was revised from a decrease of 32,000 people to a decrease of 29,000 people. ADP reported that last month, U.S. employment rebounded from two months of weakness, but the scope of the rebound was not broad. Education, healthcare, trade, transportation, and utilities led the growth, while employers in professional business services, information, leisure, and the hotel industry laid off employees for the third consecutive month. In October, the year - on - year salary increase remained the same as the previous month, with 4.5% for those who did not change jobs and 6.7% for job - hoppers [2]. - The U.S. Treasury set the quarterly refinancing scale at $125 billion, in line with market expectations. It plans to issue $58 billion of 3 - year Treasury bonds on November 10, $42 billion of 10 - year Treasury bonds on November 12, and $25 billion of 30 - year Treasury bonds on November 13, and keep the new issuance auction scale of 10 - year inflation - protected bonds (TIPS) in January at $21 billion. The U.S. Treasury expects the auction market to remain stable for at least the next few quarters and plans to increase the Treasury issuance scale by mid - 2026 [2]. - The U.S. federal government's "shutdown" has entered its 36th day, breaking the previous record of 35 days from the end of 2018 to the beginning of 2019, becoming the longest - lasting government "shutdown" in U.S. history. The U.S. Congressional Budget Office stated that if the "shutdown" lasts for six weeks, the economic loss will rise to $11 billion, and it is expected that the annual growth rate of the U.S. real GDP in the fourth quarter will decline by 1 - 2 percentage points. The record - breaking "shutdown" has severely impacted people's livelihoods in areas such as U.S. aviation safety and food relief [3]. Price Logic - Wednesday witnessed a slight rebound in precious metal prices, with gold and silver maintaining an overall oscillatory pattern. The U.S. ADP employment data exceeded expectations, and the number of newly - employed people stopped falling and rebounded, recovering from the previous two months' weak employment situation. After the data disclosure, the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields rebounded slightly, while other assets showed a relatively calm performance. Overseas equities oscillated, and commodities rebounded strongly in the short - term [1][4]. - Precious metal prices currently lack significant drivers and are expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term. The trading window in December should be closely watched, as the space for interest rate cuts next year may be speculated around the December FOMC meeting. Additionally, U.S. Treasury official Bessent stated that the nominee for the new Fed Chair is expected to be confirmed before Christmas, and the independence risk brought by personnel changes may become a bullish driver at that time. In the long run, excessive debt issuance and de - globalization are the core factors driving the decline of the U.S. dollar's credit. As a currency beyond sovereignty, gold remains the preferred asset to hedge against the risk of the U.S. dollar's credit. The global central banks' gold - buying trend persists, and the long - term price center of gold is expected to rise. The trend of silver remains consistent with that of gold. In the short term, it is expected to adjust oscillatory in tandem, and in the long run, the depreciation of credit currency will spill over, and the suppression of silver price elasticity due to the relaxed expectation of a U.S. soft landing, so the silver price center is expected to move up in the long term following gold [4][5]. Outlook - The weekly price of London gold is expected to be in the range of [3800, 4200], and the price of London silver is expected to be in the range of [46, 52] [5].

Group 1: Market Overview - Recent international gold prices have shown significant volatility, with COMEX gold futures dropping from $4013/oz to $3941.30/oz, and silver futures closing at $46.90/oz [3] - The U.S. government shutdown has lasted 36 days, impacting market liquidity and driving asset value rebalancing, which has contributed to the strengthening of the dollar index and the decline in international gold prices [4][5] Group 2: Economic Factors - The prolonged government shutdown has created market uncertainty, leading to a preference for the dollar as a safe asset, which has put downward pressure on gold prices [5] - The market has adjusted its expectations for a December interest rate cut, reducing the probability from 90% to 70%, which has influenced the rise in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar [9] Group 3: Tax Policy Impact - New tax regulations regarding gold trading will take effect from November 1, 2025, to December 31, 2027, focusing on VAT exemptions for exchange-traded transactions and physical delivery management [6] - The tax policy is expected to accelerate the centralization of gold trading in China and may shift interest towards gold investment products, although its impact on global gold prices is anticipated to be minimal [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent decline in gold prices is primarily driven by rising real interest rates and cooling rate cut expectations, with short-term weakness expected if the dollar index remains above 100.5 [10] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing central bank purchases and the broader trend of dollar credit expansion [10]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in international gold prices have been influenced by the prolonged U.S. government shutdown, which has led to increased market liquidity concerns and a stronger U.S. dollar, resulting in a significant drop in gold prices [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions - On November 4, international gold futures prices fell sharply, with COMEX gold futures dropping from $4013/oz to a low of $3931.30/oz, while COMEX silver futures closed at $46.90/oz [2]. - The U.S. government shutdown has reached a historic 36 days, causing market unease and impacting liquidity, which counteracts the effects of interest rate cuts in October [3][4]. - The market's adjustment of interest rate cut expectations has led to a rise in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, diminishing gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [3][4]. Group 2: Dollar Strength - The dollar index has surged past the 100 mark, supported by reduced interest rate cut expectations and the weakness of the euro and yen, as both the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan have maintained their current policies [5]. - If the government shutdown is resolved, liquidity may improve as funds flow back into the market, potentially leading to a decrease in the dollar index [5]. Group 3: Tax Policy Impact - A new tax policy regarding gold trading, effective from November 1, 2025, aims to encourage on-exchange trading by exempting value-added tax for certain transactions, which may shift interest towards investment products like gold ETFs [6][7]. - The policy may negatively impact non-investment gold consumption due to increased costs, while the overall long-term price trajectory of gold is expected to remain stable despite short-term speculative behavior [7][8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent rise in actual interest rates and the cooling of rate cut expectations are primary factors behind the recent decline in gold prices, with short-term weakness anticipated if the dollar index remains above 100.5 [9][10]. - Long-term drivers for gold prices, such as central bank purchases and the ongoing trend of dollar credit expansion, are expected to provide upward momentum for gold [10].

Group 1: Investment Strategy Overview - The report emphasizes a cautious investment approach, suggesting to "build high walls" (focus on dividends), "store grain" (control positions), and "wait for the king" (exercise caution while waiting for external risks to be fully released) [4][6][9] - The A-share market showed resilience despite initial declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index needing to maintain a low point of 3922 to avoid further downturns [4][18] - The technology sector has seen significant gains, with many leading tech stocks reaching new highs, but investors without positions are advised against chasing high volatility at elevated levels [4][18] Group 2: Market Analysis - The U.S. stock market experienced declines due to the Federal Reserve's officials striking down December rate cut expectations and profit-taking in tech stocks, indicating a high-risk environment for investors [5][25] - The report notes that the dollar index has broken through the previously indicated strong point of 99, with expectations for continued strength in the dollar against other currencies, particularly the RMB [30][31] - Commodity markets are advised to adopt a wait-and-see approach, with a noted decline in the Wenhua Commodity Index by 0.2% due to the strong dollar and ongoing market conditions [33][34] Group 3: Sector Performance - The report highlights that sectors such as coal, banking, and photovoltaic are still at low levels, suggesting that buying in less popular areas can yield excess returns [4][18] - The technology sector's absorption rate remains high, indicating limited room for further declines, while "old" sectors with lower volatility are expected to provide better returns in the fourth quarter [4][18] - The report identifies the Hainan Free Trade Zone as a strong performer, continuing to show resilience in the market [19][22]

美国政府延续停摆状态，重要的经济数据缺失，将导致美联储在后续货币政策的决策上更加谨慎，市场对美联储在12月降息预 期有所降温。 黄金方面： 据白宫官网，美国联邦政府停摆已经进入第36天，打破了2018年年底至2019年年初停摆35天的历史纪录，成为美国持续时间最 长的政府停摆。美国政府停摆将不利于改善美国的就业市场，虽然美国停摆期间非农就业人口数据没有公布，但是市场预期美 国就业市场难言乐观。 技术面：日线上，近期连续3个交易日行情冲高回落且收下影线较长影线，显示短期行情偏弱势。指标上看，行情仍然处于20日 均线上方运行，暗示下方有一定的支撑，短期不宜过分看空。日内关注上方62美元一线压力，下方关注59.50美元一线支撑。 美元指数： 美国政府停摆时间已经创造了历史，众多的重要数据缺失，极有可能导致美联储在货币政策方面更加谨慎。这也导致美联储官 员对于后续的货币政策分歧更加明显。 百利好特约智昇研究资深分析师辰宇认为，美联储12月份降息预期降温以及避险情绪的降温将在短期令金价承压。 技术面：日线上，上一个交易日行情自高位回落且收阴线，显示短期行情偏弱势。4小时线上，行情跌破20日均线，短期空头占 优势。日内关 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Views - Due to heightened concerns about high valuations, the US stock market experienced a "Black Tuesday," leading to a decline in gold and silver prices. The risk appetite decreased, and the rebound strength of both gold and silver prices was weak. In the medium to long term, there was a slight shift to a bearish trend, with limited upside potential. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate, and the silver premium has expanded to 300 yuan/gram [4][5]. - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to an economic recession expectation, making it difficult for gold prices to decline. However, the support for gold prices has significantly weakened recently [9]. - Silver prices still mainly follow gold prices. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase [13]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US three major stock indexes closed down across the board, European three major stock indexes closed mixed, US bond yields fell collectively, the 10 - year US bond yield dropped 2.72 basis points to 4.083%, the US dollar index rose 0.34% to 100.21, the offshore RMB depreciated against the US dollar to 7.1352, and COMEX gold futures fell 1.81% to $3941.30 per ounce. The gold futures price was 915.58, the spot price was 912.55, with a basis of - 3.03, indicating the spot was at a discount to the futures. The gold futures warehouse receipts were 87,816 kilograms, unchanged. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was below the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, but the main long positions decreased [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the US stock market's "Black Tuesday" led to a decline in silver prices. COMEX silver futures fell 2.40% to $46.90 per ounce. The silver futures price was 11,238, the spot price was 11,219, with a basis of - 19, indicating the spot was at a discount to the futures. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts were 665,610 kilograms, with a daily increase of 6,759 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was below the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, and the main long positions increased [5]. 2. Daily Tips - **Today's Focus**: A series of events and data releases are scheduled, including the release of the Bank of Japan's September monetary policy meeting minutes, the New Zealand Reserve Bank's press conference on the semi - annual financial stability report, the potential attendance of US President Trump at a hearing for the US Supreme Court's key "tariff ruling," and various PMI data from China, the US, and Europe, as well as the US October ADP employment data [15]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The support for gold prices has weakened due to the improvement of factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut and Sino - US tariff concerns. The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of turmoil, and the inflation expectation shifted to an economic recession expectation. But currently, the support factors have changed [9]. - **Silver**: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on silver prices, and there are both positive and negative factors affecting it. Positive factors include global turmoil, the existence of shadow Fed's significant interest rate cut expectations, tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East leading to a resurgence of inflation, and the support from the photovoltaic and technology sectors. Negative factors include the increasing expectation of a halt to interest rate cuts, the Fed's internal divergence, the under - expected European fiscal expansion, and the expectation of Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiations [13][14]. 4. Position Data - **Gold**: The net long position of the main gold holders decreased. For example, on November 4, 2025, the long position was 171,616, the short position was 69,501, and the net position was 102,115, showing a decrease compared to November 3, 2025 [31]. - **Silver**: The net long position of the main silver holders decreased. On November 4, 2025, the long position was 319,340, the short position was 252,370, and the net position was 66,970, also showing a decrease compared to November 3, 2025 [33]. - **ETF Positions**: The SPDR gold ETF position fluctuated and decreased, while the silver ETF position fluctuated and increased and remained higher than the same period in the past two years [36][39]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased slightly, the COMEX gold warehouse receipts continued to decrease but remained at a high level, the Shanghai silver warehouse receipts increased slightly and were at the lowest level in the past six years, and the COMEX silver warehouse receipts stopped falling with silver being transferred from New York to London [40][41][43].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View Although in the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and growth in investment demand (monetary easing prospects and periodic safe - haven trading) will continue to push up the price center of precious metals, in the short term, the market has entered an adjustment phase. Investors should look for mid - term opportunities to add positions on dips, and those with existing long positions should continue to hold them cautiously [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Condition - On Monday, precious metal prices fluctuated and consolidated. The U.S. dollar index rose slightly, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield increased slightly, the U.S. stock market continued to fluctuate and adjust, Bitcoin fell, crude oil fluctuated, and the Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index also fluctuated as a whole [2]. - The final settlement price of the COMEX gold 2512 contract was $4013.4 per ounce, down 0.06%; the U.S. silver 2512 contract settled at $48.25 per ounce, down 0.75%. The SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 922.58 yuan per gram, up 0.47%; the SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 11455 yuan per kilogram, up 0.39% [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations cooled slightly. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged on December 11 is 32.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 67.3% [3]. - The SPDR Gold ETF's holdings increased by 2.58 tons to 1041.78 tons; the iShares Silver ETF's holdings remained at 15189.82 tons. The SHFE silver inventory decreased by 6.7 tons to 658.9 tons per day; as of the week of October 24, the SGX silver inventory decreased by 145.4 tons to 905.2 tons [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - In terms of data, focus on the U.S. non - farm payrolls report on Friday evening. There will also be data such as ISM manufacturing and services PMI and ADP small non - farm data released during the week. Also, pay attention to whether the U.S. government shutdown will delay data releases [4]. - In terms of events, on Thursday at 08:00, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report. On Friday, multiple FOMC members will give speeches [4]. 3.4 Price Ranges - The resistance level for London gold is 4050 - 4100, the support level is 3900, and the strong support is in the 3800 - 3850 area; for silver, the resistance is 49.5 - 50, the support is 47.5, and the strong support is 45.5 [5]. 3.5 Other Market Data - The report also provides data on precious metal futures and spot prices, inventory and position data, and stock, bond, and commodity market data, including the U.S. dollar index, U.S. stocks, crude oil, and U.S. Treasury yields [5][13][15][19].

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a significant drop, trading around $3990 per ounce, with a decline of approximately 0.25% due to a strong US dollar at a three-month high [1] - The Federal Reserve's internal division was highlighted by a rare 10-2 vote, indicating significant disagreement among policymakers regarding future interest rate cuts [1][3] - The market's expectation for a December rate cut dropped sharply from nearly 100% to 65.3% following comments from Fed Chair Powell, who emphasized the need for caution in further easing [1][3] Group 2 - Dovish representative Milan reiterated the need for substantial rate cuts, suggesting a gradual reduction of 50 basis points until rates fall below the neutral level, citing pressures in housing and private credit markets [3] - Hawkish voices, including Chicago Fed's Goolsbee, expressed concerns over persistent inflation above target levels, indicating potential upward pressure on inflation in the coming years [3] - The ongoing government shutdown has led to a data vacuum, increasing uncertainty in the market, with key labor statistics and non-farm payroll reports on hold, complicating the Fed's policy decisions [4]