Market Overview - Gold prices experienced a significant increase, reaching a two-week high of $3393.43 following the unexpected dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook by President Trump, which raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and heightened market risk aversion [1] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.22%, and the yield curve for U.S. Treasuries steepened, with market expectations for a rate cut in September rising to over 87% [1] Technical Analysis - In the previous trading session, gold fluctuated and found support at $3367.1 before rising to a high of $3393, indicating a bullish trend with a daily close showing a large bullish candle [3] - The daily indicators suggest a bullish outlook, with the 5-day moving average trending upwards and KDJ indicators showing a bullish crossover [3] - However, the hourly chart indicates a short-term bearish trend, with K-line showing consecutive declines and KDJ indicators indicating overbought conditions [3] Trading Recommendations - Suggested to buy gold in the range of $3371-$3374 with a stop loss at $3366 and a take profit target of $3385-$3390 [5] - Suggested to sell gold in the range of $3396-$3399 with a stop loss at $3405 and a take profit target of $3380 [5]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing upward momentum due to rising market risk aversion, expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, and a weakening dollar, particularly in the context of declining tech stock prices in the U.S. market [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold futures and spot prices have rebounded as U.S. tech giants face stock price declines, with spot gold prices nearing $3,350 [1]. - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices have shown weakness, with significant declines in major tech stocks, including Nvidia, which has seen a nearly 4% drop over two days [1]. - Wall Street firms like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Citigroup view market fear and risk aversion as key catalysts for short-term gold price increases [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - President Trump is advocating for a rate cut from the Federal Reserve, calling for the resignation of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, which could allow him to influence future monetary policy [2][4]. - The latest FOMC meeting minutes indicate a hawkish stance, with most policymakers believing that a rate cut is premature despite growing concerns about inflation and labor market weakness [2][4]. - Market participants are eagerly awaiting Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech for hints regarding potential rate cuts in September [2]. Group 3: Price Predictions and Trends - Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook for gold, predicting prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by strong global central bank demand and ETF inflows [5]. - Citigroup has revised its three-month gold price forecast from $3,300 to $3,500 per ounce, citing deteriorating economic growth and inflation outlooks [7]. - JPMorgan forecasts that deteriorating non-farm employment data could catalyze gold prices to reach $3,675 per ounce by year-end, with a potential rise to $4,000 per ounce early next year [8].

Group 1 - Gold futures and spot prices have rebounded as U.S. tech giants' stock prices decline, with spot gold reaching around $3,350 per ounce amid rising risk aversion and expectations of a Fed rate cut in September [1] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices have weakened due to the decline of major tech companies, with Nvidia's market cap dropping nearly 4% over two days, contributing to a four-day decline in the S&P 500 [1] - Major Wall Street banks, including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Citigroup, view risk aversion and pessimistic economic outlooks as key catalysts for short-term gold price increases, with expectations of a prolonged bullish trend for gold [1] Group 2 - President Trump is calling for Fed Governor Lisa Cook's resignation, aiming to influence the Fed's monetary policy towards a more dovish stance, despite the recent hawkish tone in the Fed's meeting minutes [2][3] - The Fed's July FOMC meeting minutes indicate a broad support for a neutral monetary policy, with only two dissenters advocating for rate cuts, highlighting a cautious approach among policymakers [2] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook for gold, projecting prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by strong global central bank demand and inflows into gold ETFs [4] - Gold prices have recently seen a rise, with August COMEX gold futures closing above $3,343 per ounce, marking a new weekly high [4] Group 4 - Citigroup has revised its three-month gold price forecast upward from $3,300 to $3,500 per ounce, citing deteriorating economic growth and inflation outlooks as key reasons for the shift to a bullish stance [6] - JPMorgan suggests that weak employment data could significantly boost gold prices, with a potential target of $3,675 per ounce by year-end and a possibility of reaching $4,000 per ounce by early next year [6][7]

Group 1: Energy and Metals Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The overall market presents a complex situation with different trends in various commodities. Some commodities face supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by geopolitical, policy, and seasonal factors. Summary by Commodity - **Crude Oil**: The market is in a volatile state. After the third - quarter peak season, there is pressure for accelerated inventory accumulation. The price center may decline in the medium - term, but short - term options strategies are recommended for risk - hedging [2]. - **Precious Metals**: They are in a weak operation recently due to the decline in market risk - aversion sentiment. Investors should wait patiently for callback layout positions [3]. - **Copper**: The price has fallen below the MA60 moving average. The market is cautious about economic growth risks. Short - term operations are recommended based on price levels [4]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: - **Aluminum**: It shows short - term fluctuations. The inventory peak may be approaching, and the lower support level is around 20,300 yuan [5]. - **Alumina**: It is in a weak and volatile state due to supply surplus [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the trend of Shanghai Aluminum. There is a possibility that the cross - variety spread with AL will gradually narrow [6]. - **Zinc**: The supply has increased, and demand is weak. The price has fallen for 5 consecutive days. Be vigilant about macro - sentiment fluctuations in the "Golden September and Silver October" period [7]. - **Lead**: The consumption is not as strong as expected in the peak season, but the cost provides support. There is an expectation of demand recovery in the future [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel has slightly adjusted. The inventory of stainless steel has decreased, but there are still uncertainties in the market [9]. - **Tin**: The price of London Tin is relatively strong. The decline in Indonesian exports and low overseas inventory support the price [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price is in a volatile state. The market trading is active, and short - term long positions are recommended [11]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price has fallen. The policy details have not been updated, and there is an opportunity to go long below 50,000 yuan/ton [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price is in a downward trend. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,500 - 9,000 yuan/ton [13]. - **Steel Products**: - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The price has fallen. The demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory is increasing. Pay attention to the production restriction in Tangshan [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is increasing seasonally, and the demand is supported by high - level hot metal in the short - term. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [15]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The price is in a volatile state. The production restriction expectation of coking plants is rising, and the inventory is decreasing [16]. - **Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron**: The price is in a downward trend. They are affected by the "anti - involution" policy and follow the trend of coking coal [17][18]. - **Shipping Index**: The spot price is declining, and the market is in a bearish atmosphere [19]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak, while low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively strong. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil from the Middle East is increasing [20]. - **Asphalt**: The demand is expected to recover in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 3,400 - 3,500 yuan/ton [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The overseas market is stable. The domestic market is under pressure, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [22]. Group 2: Chemicals Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The chemical market is affected by factors such as supply - demand balance, policy, and cost. Different chemicals show different trends. Summary by Commodity - **Urea**: The export policy news affects the market. The short - term supply and demand are loose, and the price is affected by market sentiment [23]. - **Methanol**: The port inventory is increasing rapidly. The short - term market is weak, and attention should be paid to macro - and market - sentiment changes [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price has fallen at night. The fundamentals are improving, and monthly - spread band - trading is recommended [25]. - **Styrene**: The price is in a consolidation pattern. The cost provides support, and the supply and demand are relatively balanced [26]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The supply and demand of these chemicals are generally weak, and the price is under pressure [27]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC is in a weak operation, while caustic soda is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term but with limited long - term increase [28]. - **PX and PTA**: The price has fallen at night. The demand for polyester is expected to increase, and the valuation of PX is expected to improve [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price has fallen slightly. It is in a short - term low - level fluctuation, and attention should be paid to the demand recovery rhythm [30]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: The supply and demand of short - fiber are stable, and it is recommended to be long - configured in the medium - term. The processing margin of bottle chip is in a low - level fluctuation [31]. - **Glass**: The price has fallen at night. The demand is weak, but the cost increase may prevent it from breaking the previous low [32]. - **Rubber**: The supply of natural rubber is increasing, and the demand is general. The market sentiment is pessimistic [33]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is increasing, and the price is under pressure in the long - term [34]. Group 3: Agricultural Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Agricultural products are affected by factors such as weather, policy, and supply - demand balance. Different products show different trends. Summary by Commodity - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: The US soybean is in good condition, but there are challenges in the future. The domestic soybean meal price has increased, and the market is cautiously bullish [35]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The price has fallen. Be cautious about short - term fluctuations and maintain a long - position strategy in the long - term [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The price is in a weak state. It is expected to have a short - term weak rebound, and attention should be paid to new developments in imports [37]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The price has fallen. The supply has increased through auction, and attention should be paid to weather, policy, and imported soybean performance [38]. - **Corn**: The domestic corn auction has a low success rate. The US corn is in good condition, and the domestic corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [39]. - **Pig**: The short - term spot price has increased slightly, but the medium - term price is expected to be weak. It is recommended for industries to hedge at high prices [40]. - **Egg**: The futures price is in an accelerated decline. The high - capacity pressure requires price decline for de - capacity. Attention should be paid to various factors [41]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price has fallen slightly. The domestic cotton price is affected by downstream orders and production expectations. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate [43]. - **Apple**: The price is in a volatile state. The market focuses on the new - season production estimate, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Wood**: The price is in a volatile state. The supply is expected to remain low, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **Pulp**: The price has fallen. The inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [46]. Group 4: Financial Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The financial market is affected by geopolitical, policy, and macro - economic factors. Different products show different trends. Summary by Commodity - **Stock Index**: The stock market is in a narrow - range fluctuation. The geopolitical pressure on market risk preference has been relieved. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors [47]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market is difficult to recover significantly in the short - term. The yield curve is expected to steepen [47].

全球贸易局势引发市场波动。世界贸易组织数据显示，2025年全球商品贸易增速预期已从2%下调至-0.2%，而国 际货币基金组织（IMF）亦将全球经济增速预测从3.3%降至2.8%，滞胀风险显著上升。与此同时，各国央行政策 分化明显：美联储连续四次"按兵不动"，欧洲三央行则选择降息以应对衰退压力，政策不确定性进一步推升市场 避险情绪，促使监管政策持续趋严。 金融科技赋能交易：速度、工具与智能化的三重升级 AC资本（ACCM）依托前沿金融交易技术，重构交易体验，显著提升决策效率与投资胜率。 极速执行与低延迟：AC资本市场（ACCM）数据中心遍布全球，流动性来自伦敦LD4、纽约NY4、新加坡SG2和 东京TY3等金融中心，专线直连数据中心与交易服务器，可以实现毫秒级且稳定的订单执行，确保在高频波动中 抢占先机。 智能辅助工具：AC资本（ACCM）引入广泛欢迎的MT5，其具备先进的金融交易功能、卓越的技术和基本面分析 工具；Autochartist自动图表分析系统，实时识别技术形态与趋势信号；结合Trading Central的宏观策略研报，帮助 投资者在美联储政策分歧或地缘事件发酵前预判市场方向；除此之外，还有跟单交 ...

Group 1 - International gold prices continued to decline, with December gold futures on the New York Commodity Exchange dropping nearly 2.2% to $3415.6 per ounce [2] - Investors are focused on the upcoming US-Russia leaders' meeting in Alaska on August 15, with expectations of easing geopolitical risks and a reduction in safe-haven sentiment [4] - Analysts predict that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July may rebound to 3% year-on-year, raising concerns about inflation impacting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, which could limit gold price increases [4] Group 2 - Last week, international gold prices rose nearly 2.7% due to investor optimism regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and reports of increased tariffs on imported gold bars, which heightened market risk aversion [4] - Gold prices reached an intraday historical high of $3534.1 per ounce, with the price difference between New York gold futures and London spot gold reaching $100 per ounce [4]

除了地缘政治因素，即将公布的美国7月消费者物价指数（CPI）数据也是市场关注的焦点。分析师预 计，受关税政策的影响，核心CPI将较前月上涨0.3%，较上年同期上涨3.0%。这一数据虽然较美联储 2%的通胀目标仍有距离，但可能为美联储未来的货币政策提供重要指引。如果CPI数据表现强劲，可 能进一步推高美元汇率，从而对金价形成压制。近期美国就业数据表现不及预期，市场对美联储9月降 息的预期显著升温。根据市场定价，美联储在9月放宽货币政策的概率高达90%，并且预计到2025年底 还将至少再降息一次。降息通常对黄金有利，因为它降低了持有非收益资产（如黄金）的机会成本。然 而，短期内美元的潜在走强可能限制金价的上涨空间。尽管金价面临压力，但逢低买入的投资者仍可能 为市场提供支撑。与此同时，中美贸易谈判的进展也为市场增添了不确定性。特朗普要求华盛顿与北京 在8月12日之前达成协议，这一最后期限的临近让投资者保持高度警惕。贸易紧张局势的升级可能推高 市场避险情绪，从而为金价提供一定支撑，但如果谈判取得突破，黄金的吸引力可能进一步减弱。 8.11黄金行情走势分析： 黄金技术面分析：受美联储官员鹰派表态，市场普遍认为降息可能推 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the US economy is expected to continue weakening in the medium term, with a clear direction towards interest rate cuts [1] - Recent concerns about market recession have been reignited due to unexpected weak non-farm data and the normalization of tariff policy disruptions, leading to increased expectations for rate cuts and a rise in market risk aversion [1] - Short-term gold prices are likely to surge again, while the long-term outlook remains bullish due to multiple supporting factors such as geopolitical conflicts, a weakening dollar, rate cut expectations, and continued gold purchases by non-US central banks [1] Group 2 - The gold ETF (518800) tracks the SGE gold 9999 (AU9999), reflecting the price trends of high-purity (99.99%) gold in the Shanghai Gold Exchange, purely reflecting the supply and demand dynamics of the domestic and international gold markets [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai Gold ETF Connect A (000218) and Guotai Gold ETF Connect C (004253) [2]

8月8日上午，美国纽约商品交易所黄金期货价格一度超过每盎司3534美元，突破历史高位。 国内金价也水涨船高。8日，中钞国鼎金条价格为每克816.00元，中国黄金投资金条价格为813.50元；价格相对较低的上海黄金交易所投资金条为每克 781.05元。截至8日中午12时，工行纸黄金价格每克超783元。 这波金价上涨的天花板在哪儿？投资者又该如何应对？ 多因素推动黄金价格冲高 中国（香港）金融衍生品投资研究院院长王红英在接受中新社国是直通车采访时表示，纽约黄金期货价格8日盘中一度突破历史高位，直接原因是市场普 遍预期美联储将启动降息周期。更深层次的原因在于美国7月经济数据疲软，就业市场增长乏力，制造业、服务业指标表现不佳，叠加美元指数弱势运 行，市场避险情绪升温，推动黄金价格持续上涨。 汇管信息研究院副院长赵庆明表示，过去十年，黄金价格上涨主要受三大因素驱动：全球宽松货币政策、地缘政治风险升温、央行购金行为。2009年后， 全球央行从黄金净卖出转为净买入，导致国际黄金市场供需格局改变，形成紧平衡状态，推高金价。 工信部信息通信经济专家委员会委员盘和林认为，美国关税政策调整与非农数据下滑，强化了市场对美联储降息的预 ...

| 今日金店黄金回收价格一览(2025年8月7日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 回收报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | | 黄金 | 769. 80 | 元/克 | | 采自黄金 | 775.30 | 元/克 | | 周生生黄金 | 767. 60 | 元/克 | | 周大福黄金 | 773.90 | 元/克 | | 老凤祥黄金 | 782.80 | 元/克 | 说完国内黄金价格，我们再来讲讲国际金价情况： 昨日现货黄金走势有点类似于前一日，整体呈V型走势。不过昨日金价在晚间回升后，再次迎来下跌，最终收报3369.19美元/盎司，跌幅0.33%。 今日金价暂有上行趋势，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报3377.67美元/盎司，涨幅0.25%。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： | | | 今日金店黄金价格一览(2025年8月7日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | | 老庙黄金价格 | 1012 | 元/克 | l | 跌 | | 六福黄金价格 | 1015 | 元/克 | O | 2 ...