Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Precious Metals Data Daily [4] - Report Date: June 3, 2025 [5] - Research Institution: ITC Guomao Futures [3] - Researcher: Baishuna from the Macroeconomic and Financial Research Center [5] Group 2: Price and Performance Price Tracking - On May 30, 2025, the prices of London Gold Spot, London Silver Spot, COMEX Gold, COMEX Silver, AU2508, AG2508, AU (T+D), and AG (T+D) were $3298.75/oz, $33.13/oz, $3322.40/oz, $33.25/oz, 771.80 yuan/g, 8218 yuan/kg, 767.80 yuan/g, and 8187 yuan/kg respectively [5]. - Compared with May 29, 2025, the price changes were 0.8%, -0.1%, 0.8%, -0.2%, 1.0%, -0.1%, 0.9%, and 0.0% respectively [5]. Spread and Ratio - On May 30, 2025, the spreads and ratios such as gold TD - SHFE active price, silver TD - SHFE active price, gold and silver internal - external spreads, SHFE and COMEX gold - silver ratios, etc. are presented in the report [5]. - The changes compared with May 29, 2025 varied, with the largest increase of 30.6% in the gold internal - external (TD - London) spread and the largest decrease of 19.14% in COMEX gold non - commercial short positions [5]. Group 3: Position Data Non - commercial Positions - As of May 27, 2025 (weekly data), the non - commercial long and short positions of COMEX gold and silver, and the positions of gold ETF - SPDR and silver ETF - SLV are provided [5]. - Compared with May 29, 2025, the changes in non - commercial positions of COMEX gold and silver ranged from - 19.14% to 6.22% [5]. Inventory Data - On May 30, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 17,247 kg, with no change compared to May 29, 2025; the SHFE silver inventory was 1,066,885 kg, a 2.99% increase [5]. - The COMEX gold inventory was 38,789,194 troy ounces, unchanged, and the COMEX silver inventory was 496,007,980 troy ounces, a 0.43% decrease [5]. Group 4: Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Market - On May 30, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.18, a 0.08% decrease compared to May 29, 2025 [5]. - The US dollar index was 99.44, a 0.08% increase; the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.89%, a 0.77% decrease; the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.41%, a 0.45% decrease [5]. - The VIX was 18.57, a 3.18% decrease; the S&P 500 was 5911.69, a 0.01% decrease; NYWEX crude oil was $60.79, a 0.21% decrease [5]. Group 5: Market Analysis and Strategy Short - term Logic - Trump's decision to raise steel tariffs to 50% and the EU's response, along with the escalating geopolitical tensions in Europe, have led to a significant increase in market risk - aversion sentiment, boosting precious metal prices [5]. - The slowdown of US PCE in April and consumer inflation expectations in June have increased the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the weak operation of the US dollar index also supports precious metal prices [5]. - However, due to the uncertainty and recurrence of tariff negotiations, the driving force for precious metal prices may weaken if the negotiations ease [5]. Medium - and Long - term Logic - Against the backdrop of the trade war, the US economy still faces the risk of "stagflation," and the Fed still has a certain probability of cutting interest rates in the second half of the year [5]. - With the intensification of great - power competition and the de - dollarization trend, global central banks' gold purchases continue, strengthening the monetary attribute of gold, and the medium - and long - term upward trend remains unchanged [5]. - The strategy suggests continuous low - buying allocation [5].

根据彭博社的消息，本周中国企业已经从巴西购买超过240万吨大豆，至少40艘货轮才能装完。知情人士称，最近巴西大豆价格有所回落，中国企业正是趁 这个时候出手"扫货"的。在巴西，中国企业很受欢迎，接下来，预计还有更多的大豆订单落到中国手里。 就在3月5日，中国刚宣布了对美国大豆、高粱、乳制品等增收25%的关税，而后随着美国不断提高对华征收关税的税率，中国给予反制，最终税率达到 125%，这意味着美国大豆已经没有进入中国市场的希望了。 这对美国农民来说是个绝望的消息，美国大豆协会主席凯莱布·拉格兰表示：美国发动的贸易战，让美国豆农面临绝境，特朗普总统害惨了我们。 大豆虽然不是三大主粮之一，但它对粮食安全的作用却非常大。大豆在中国的主要用途有四大类，第一是饲料需求，大豆的豆粕是支撑中国生猪、家禽和水 产养殖的关键饲料。因为中国的生猪存栏量占全球50%以上，所以大豆的需求量最高。 第二是食用油需求，在国内的植物油市场上，大豆油占40%以上。中国是人口大国，又是烹饪大国，所以在全球范围内，中国对大豆油的需求量也最高。 第三是食品加工，例如做豆腐、豆芽等豆制品，以及做酱油等调味料。 第四是工业用途，比如做生物柴油。 其中， ...

金十数据6月3日讯，丹麦央行在周二发布的金融稳定报告中警告称，美国贸易战的升级将对丹麦银行业 构成"重大风险"，因为该国银行高度依赖出口导向型产业。由于制造业企业占工业出口的很大比重，且 这些出口直接或间接流向美国，丹麦银行业特别容易受到贸易紧张局势的进一步影响。如果关税导致丹 麦在欧盟的贸易伙伴需求减少，情况可能迅速恶化。出口遭受重大冲击以及全球经济普遍放缓不仅会直 接影响受出口影响的企业，还将影响分包商、员工乃至丹麦经济整体，可能导致信贷机构发放的企业贷 款出现损失。丹麦央行数据显示，制造业约占大型银行企业贷款组合的18%。 丹麦央行警告：贸易战升级将对丹麦银行业构成重大风险 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing trade tensions, particularly the escalation of the trade war initiated by Trump, which has implications for various sectors including manufacturing and technology [4] - The report notes that the US manufacturing PMI has contracted for three consecutive months, indicating a potential slowdown in economic activity [4] - The European Union is reportedly planning to restrict Chinese access to the medical device procurement sector, which could impact market dynamics [4] Economic Data Summary - The Baltic Dry Index increased by 4.80% to 1418.00, indicating a rise in shipping costs [5] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 19242.61, up by 0.67%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.08% to 42305.48 [5] - The ICE Brent crude oil price rose by 3.73% to 65.12, reflecting an increase in global oil prices [5] - The US dollar index decreased by 0.75% to 98.69, suggesting a weakening of the dollar against other currencies [5] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23157.97, down by 0.57%, indicating a decline in the Hong Kong market [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.47% to 3347.49, reflecting a downward trend in mainland Chinese markets [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the situation of the trade war was uncertain, causing the bond market to fluctuate. With a loose funding environment and the overnight interest rate dropping back to 1.4%, ultra-long bonds were slightly pressured, showing a V-shaped trend throughout the week. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds increased slightly, and both the term spread and the variety spread widened [1][11]. - For the 30-year treasury bond, as of May 30, the spread between the 30-year and 10-year treasury bonds was 23BP, at a historically low level. Considering domestic economic data, the economy in April still showed resilience. The estimated year-on-year GDP growth rate in April was about 4.1%, a 0.8% decline from March but still higher than the annual economic growth target. In terms of inflation, the CPI in April was -0.1% and the PPI was -2.7%, indicating obvious deflation risks. With the recent easing of Sino-US trade frictions and the dissipation of investors' pessimistic expectations, the short-term focus will shift to the domestic economic data of the second quarter. It is expected that as the policy support effect weakens, the bond yield is more likely to decline. However, the current term spread of the 30-year treasury bond is still low, providing limited protection [2][12]. - For the 20-year CDB bond, as of May 30, the spread between the 20-year CDB bond and the 20-year treasury bond was 2BP, at a historically extremely low level. The domestic economic situation in April was similar to that of the 30-year treasury bond. It is also expected that the bond yield will decline as the policy support effect weakens. However, the current variety spread of the 20-year CDB bond is still low, providing limited protection [3][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Review - **Ultra-long Bond Review**: Last week, due to the uncertain trade war situation and a loose funding environment with the overnight interest rate at 1.4%, ultra-long bonds were slightly pressured, showing a V-shaped trend. The trading activity increased slightly, and both the term spread and the variety spread widened [1][11]. - **Ultra-long Bond Investment Outlook**: As analyzed above for the 30-year treasury bond and 20-year CDB bond [2][3]. - **Ultra-long Bond Basic Overview**: As of May 31, the balance of outstanding ultra-long bonds exceeded 21.6 trillion yuan, accounting for 14.4% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main varieties. By remaining term, the 30-year variety had the highest proportion [14]. 3.2 Primary Market - **Weekly Issuance**: Last week (May 26 - May 30, 2025), the issuance of ultra-long bonds was low, totaling 117.7 billion yuan, a significant decrease compared to the week before last. By variety, local government bonds accounted for 104.9 billion yuan, and by term, 20-year bonds accounted for 56.5 billion yuan [19]. - **Upcoming Issuance This Week**: The announced issuance plan for ultra-long bonds this week totals 108.1 billion yuan, including 71 billion yuan of ultra-long treasury bonds and 37.1 billion yuan of ultra-long local government bonds [26]. 3.3 Secondary Market - **Trading Volume**: Last week, the trading of ultra-long bonds was quite active, with a turnover of 903.9 billion yuan, accounting for 10.4% of the total bond turnover. Compared to the week before last, the trading activity increased slightly, with the turnover increasing by 42.2 billion yuan and the proportion increasing by 0.2% [28][29]. - **Yield**: Affected by the trade war and the funding environment, ultra-long bonds were slightly pressured, showing a V-shaped trend. The yields of different types of ultra-long bonds had different changes, such as the 15-year treasury bond yield decreasing by 2BP to 1.85% [36]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra-long bonds widened but remained at a low absolute level. The spread between the 30-year and 10-year treasury bonds was 23BP, a 6BP increase from the week before last, at the 6% quantile since 2010 [43]. - **Variety Spread**: The variety spread of ultra-long bonds also widened but was at a low absolute level. The spread between the 20-year CDB bond and the treasury bond was 2BP, and the spread between the 20-year railway bond and the treasury bond was 7BP, with changes of 0BP and 2BP respectively from the week before last, at the 2% and 3% quantiles since 2010 [48]. 3.4 30-year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of the 30-year treasury bond futures, TL2509, closed at 119.41 yuan, a decrease of 0.16%. The total trading volume was 408,900 lots (-60,932 lots), and the open interest was 113,500 lots (-15,740 lots), showing a slight decline in both [50].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a decline of 2.40% during the week of May 26 to May 30, ranking low among all primary industries. Precious metals fell by 3.55%, industrial metals by 2.56%, energy metals by 3.18%, small metals by 0.69%, and new materials by 1.09% [1][15]. - The macroeconomic sentiment has weakened due to declining U.S. consumer spending and escalating trade tensions, impacting industrial metals negatively. However, gold is expected to strengthen due to rising inflation expectations in the U.S. [1][4]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.03%, with the non-ferrous metals sector declining by 2.40%, underperforming the index by 2.38 percentage points [15]. - All sub-sectors within non-ferrous metals saw declines, with precious metals leading the drop [15]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Prices remained volatile due to seasonal demand declines and macroeconomic sentiment. As of May 30, LME copper was at $9,497/ton, down 1.22% week-on-week, while SHFE copper was at ¥77,600/ton, down 0.24% [2][34]. - **Aluminum**: Prices decreased slightly, with LME aluminum at $2,449/ton (down 0.71%) and SHFE aluminum at ¥20,070/ton (down 0.42%). Social inventory fell to 549,600 tons, down 6.47% [3][38]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc was at $2,630/ton, down 3.06%, while SHFE zinc was at ¥22,225/ton, up 0.05%. Inventory levels decreased for both exchanges [41]. - **Tin**: Prices fell significantly, with LME tin at $30,230/ton (down 7.45%) and SHFE tin at ¥250,300/ton (down 5.40%). Supply expectations have increased due to resumed operations in certain mines [45]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: The COMEX gold price rose to $3,313.10/oz (up 0.55%), while SHFE gold fell to ¥771.80/g (down 1.06%). The market anticipates a rise in U.S. inflation, providing a bullish outlook for gold [4][50]. Economic Indicators - U.S. durable goods orders fell by 6.3% in April, indicating weakening consumer spending and investment sentiment. The PCE price index showed a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, the lowest since March 2021 [4][28]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report highlights a tightening supply for copper due to disruptions in production and a seasonal decline in demand. The macroeconomic environment is expected to exert more influence on copper prices in the short term [2][34]. Inventory Trends - Copper inventories showed mixed trends, with LME stocks at 149,900 tons (down 9.02%) and SHFE stocks at 105,800 tons (up 7.22%) [34]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and data from the industry report, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook for the non-ferrous metals sector.

面对隐藏在《大漂亮法案》中的第899条税收条款，大摩警告华尔街面临史上最大"资本税"冲击。 华尔街见闻此前提及，在美国众议院此前通过的《大漂亮法案》税收与支出议案中，一条标题为"针对不公平外国税收的执法补救措施"的条款提出，对于被美 国认定存在"歧视性"税收政策的国家，将大幅提高该国企业和个人在美投资的税率。 如果参议院未能澄清适用范围，市场可能面临美债收益率曲线陡化、美元走弱及信用利差扩大的多重冲击。 万亿美元级别的税收"核弹"即将引爆 报告指出，899条款的杀伤力在于其"递增式惩罚税"设计：对被认定存在"歧视性"税收政策国家的投资者，首先提高5个百分点税率，然后每年再增加5个百分 点，最高可达20个百分点的额外税负。 并且，该条款涵盖的目标极其广泛，包括美国被动收入、房地产投资、商业利润，甚至可能波及外国央行和主权财富基金——这些此前享受免税待遇的"特权阶 层"。 尽管目前文本暗示固定收益资产可能不在范围内，但专家们仍对"金融资产"是否会被纳入"实际资产"范畴存在分歧。 报告数据显示，截至2024年12月，美国对外国实体的总负债高达39.8万亿美元，占名义GDP的134%。其中，证券持有占83%，长期证券 ...

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of Section 899 of the "Big Beautiful Act" poses a significant threat to Wall Street, potentially leading to the largest capital tax impact in history, particularly affecting foreign investors in the U.S. market [1][2]. Tax Implications - Section 899 introduces a "progressive penalty tax" for investors from countries deemed to have "discriminatory" tax policies, starting with a 5% increase in tax rates, escalating by 5% annually, with a maximum additional burden of 20% [2]. - The scope of this tax is extensive, potentially impacting passive income, real estate investments, business profits, and even foreign central banks and sovereign wealth funds that previously enjoyed tax exemptions [2]. Market Impact - The ambiguity surrounding whether financial assets will be included in the tax scope raises concerns among experts, despite current indications suggesting fixed income assets may be excluded [3]. - As of December 2024, U.S. liabilities to foreign entities are projected to reach $39.8 trillion, accounting for 134% of nominal GDP, with securities holdings comprising 83% and long-term securities at 96% [3]. Foreign Investment Dynamics - Foreign official investors hold a significantly larger share of U.S. fixed income markets compared to equities, meaning any tax policy changes could directly affect U.S. Treasury yield curves [6]. - The report indicates that foreign private investors tend to hold longer-term Treasuries, while official investors prefer shorter maturities, suggesting that rising tax costs could lead to greater selling pressure on long-term bonds [8]. Regional Effects - Europe is likely to be the biggest "victim" of these tax changes, with $3.5 trillion of the $5.39 trillion in foreign direct investment in the U.S. coming from Europe, making Eurozone countries the largest holders of U.S. fixed income and equity securities [11]. Currency and Credit Market Effects - The tax implications signal a negative outlook for the U.S. dollar, as the 4% current account deficit heavily relies on foreign capital inflows, and the new tax could deter foreign investment, leading to a weaker dollar against G10 currencies [14]. - In the corporate bond market, liquidity pressures and credit spreads may widen, with foreign investors holding about 25% of U.S. corporate debt, which could face volatility if additional tax burdens are imposed [14]. Securitized Products and Real Estate - Foreign investors show a stronger demand for agency bonds compared to securitized credit; unfavorable tax policies on non-government-backed assets could benefit GNMA mortgage-backed securities (MBS) [15]. - In commercial real estate (CRE), where foreign buyers account for 5-10% of transactions, tax changes could have a more pronounced impact on valuations compared to residential real estate [15]. Hedge Fund Risks - The definition of "applicable persons" in the tax clause could significantly affect hedge funds, as a 20% tax rate increase could eliminate arbitrage opportunities, fundamentally disrupting the business models of quantitative hedge funds reliant on U.S. markets [17]. Legislative Outlook - The likelihood of the worst-case scenario materializing from Section 899 remains uncertain, with the primary aim of the clause being to provide leverage in tax and trade negotiations [18][21]. - The Senate is seen as a potential "lifeline" to clarify the applicability of Section 899, with expectations that it may review the details, including income scope and applicable entities [22].

*三大股指上扬，纳指涨近0.7%； *中长期美债收益率走高，基准10年期美债报4.61%； *受特朗普言论影响，汽车和钢铁股悲喜两重天。 周一美股低开高走，尽管美国总统特朗普发表上调进口钢铁和铝关税言论，但投资者仍对美国与其贸易 伙伴之间的贸易谈判持乐观态度。截至收盘，道指涨35.41点，涨幅0.08%，报42305.48点，录得日线三 连阳，纳指涨0.67%，报19242.61点，标普500指数涨0.41%，报5935.94点。 明星科技股涨多跌少，Meta Platforms涨3.6%，英伟达涨1.6%，亚马逊涨0.8%，苹果涨0.4%，微软涨 0.3%，谷歌跌1.5%。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨0.5%。 市场概述 经济数据方面，供应管理协会（ISM）周一公布的数据显示，美国5月份制造业指数跌至48.5，连续第 三个月收缩，供应商在关税压力下交付投入的时间更长，这可能预示着一些商品即将出现短缺。 标普全球市场情报（S&P Global Market Intelligence）首席商业经济学家威廉姆森（Chris Williamson） 表示，尽管上个月制造商的整体情绪有所改善，部分原因是暂停关税，但"在不 ...

今日优选 外媒：寻求加快谈判，特朗普要求各国周三前提出 "最佳报价" 地缘政治风险加剧，原油大反弹，美国WTI原油盘中涨超5%，最终收涨3.45%，报62.89美元/桶；布伦特原油收涨3.47%，报64.91美元/桶。 美国5月制造业活动连续第四个月萎缩 美媒：美方态度大反转将允许伊朗进行低水平铀浓缩 俄乌第二轮谈判在伊斯坦布尔结束，双方同意交换部分战俘但未达成停火 GDPNow模型预计美国Q2 GDP增速为4.6% 鲍威尔：政府必须理解美元潜在的剧烈波动的影响 市场盘点 周一（6月2日）特朗普政府的"钢铁关税"又使全球贸易紧张局势升级，上周末俄乌冲突加剧也令地缘风险急速上升。欧美股市盘中下跌，黄金和原油大幅反 弹。不过后来，俄乌直接谈判结束、主要大国元首可能直接磋商的消息传出，令情绪有所逆转。 美元指数收跌0.76%，报98.69，美国制造业数据不佳，美元指数承压创近六周新低。美债收益率先跌后涨，基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.445%，2年期美 债收益率收报3.947%。 美元走软加之贸易战风险和地缘政治风险增加，现货黄金大幅收涨2.8%，最高突破3382美元/盎司，最终收报3381.56美元/盎司，创逾 ...