化工日报 | 2025-06-24 青岛港口库存环比回升 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约13950元/吨，较前一日变动+50元/吨。NR主力合约12010元/吨，较前一日变动-55 元/吨。现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格13950元/吨，较前一日变动+50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混13820元/吨， 较前一日变动+40元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1700美元/吨，较前一日变动+0美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标 胶1640美元/吨，较前一日变动+0美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格12000元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 浙江传化BR9000市场价11600元/吨，较前一日变动-50元/吨。 近期市场资讯：2025年5月中国天然橡胶进口量环比减少13.35%，同比增加30.51%，1-5月累计进口量同比增幅扩 大至25.25%。 据隆众资讯了解，预计本周轮胎样本企业产能利用率表现基本稳定，全钢胎企业排产暂稳运行，检修半钢胎企业 复工对整体产能利用率形成一定拉动，但多数企业根据自身订单及库存情况灵活调整排产，个别企业或存适度降 低排产可能，预计产能利用率整体波动不大。 我国乘联分 ...

尿素日报 | 2025-06-24 地缘影响减弱，尿素震荡走低 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-06-23，尿素主力收盘1711元/吨（-19）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1760 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1750元/吨（-70）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1770元/吨（-60）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：39 元/吨（-51）；河南基差：49元/吨（-41）；江苏基差：59元/吨（-41）；尿素生产利润220元/吨（-70），出口利润648 元/吨（+136）。 供应端：截至2025-06-23，企业产能利用率88.28%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为113.60 万吨（-4.11），港口样本 库存量为29.50 万吨（+5.00）。 需求端：截至2025-06-23，复合肥产能利用率31.82%（-1.99%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为64.32%（+0.55%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.29日（+0.58）。 伊朗以色列地缘对尿素盘面影响减弱，重回基本面交易，尿素震荡走低。尿素开工高位运行，装置检修计划偏少， 产量预计走高，供应端压力较大。尿素下游农业需求追肥补货需求释放，工厂预售 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of the lithium carbonate market are weak, with a possible decline in the consumer end and the lithium carbonate futures market. Short - term attention should be paid to the new warehouse receipt registration after the cancellation of warehouse receipts. It is recommended to sell on rallies for hedging [1][2][3]. 3. Summary According to Related Content Market Analysis - On June 23, 2025, the opening price of the lithium carbonate main contract 2509 was 58,860 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 59,120 yuan/ton, a 0.77% drop from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 259,487 lots, and the open interest was 356,954 lots, an increase of 2,607 lots from the previous trading day. The total open interest of all contracts was 656,617 lots, an increase of 9,340 lots. The total trading volume of contracts decreased by 167,517 lots to 282,439 lots, and the overall speculation degree was 0.43. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 26,779 lots, a decrease of 1,014 lots from the previous day. The futures were at a discount of 830 yuan/ton to the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate [1]. Spot Market - On June 23, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 59,300 - 60,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 57,850 - 58,850 yuan/ton, also a 4,500 - yuan/ton decrease. The market continued to have an oversupply situation. Supply was abundant, while downstream demand was weak, with only rigid demand for restocking. There was no sign of concentrated restocking. The market showed a differentiated situation: large lithium salt enterprises had relatively firm prices, while some small and medium - sized enterprises' prices were loose. The overall market trading was light [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Sell on rallies for hedging. There is no suitable strategy for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3][4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The photovoltaic rush in May exceeded expectations, potentially pre - consuming a significant amount of the second - half installation demand. As a result, the subsequent consumer side may be difficult to sustain, and the market may continue to be weak. For industrial silicon, the supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and the market is expected to oscillate at the bottom [1][5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis**: On June 23, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2509 opened at 7375 yuan/ton and closed at 7420 yuan/ton, down 0.20% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2509 was 303119 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 54184 lots, a decrease of 439 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable, with individual silicon prices in Kunming and Sichuan decreasing, while those in Tianjin, Xinjiang, and other regions remained unchanged [1]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: The supply - demand fundamentals are weak. Although the explicit inventory has decreased due to many warehouse receipt cancellations recently, the total inventory is accumulating. The consumption side is average, with downstream enterprises making rigid purchases [1][2]. - **Strategy**: It is expected that the market will oscillate at the bottom. For single - side operations, it is advisable to operate within a range, and upstream enterprises can sell on rallies for hedging [2]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis**: On June 23, 2025, the main contract 2508 of polysilicon futures continued to decline, opening at 31200 yuan/ton and closing at 30615 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.30% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 78183 lots, and the trading volume was 88450 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable, and the inventories of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers decreased. The weekly output of polysilicon increased by 2.94% week - on - week, while the silicon wafer output decreased by 1.53% week - on - week [3]. - **Price of Downstream Products**: The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained mostly stable, with a slight increase in the mainstream transaction price of N - type 210mm components [3][5]. - **Strategy**: The market is mainly trading on the weak expectation of subsequent installations and the production increase of silicon material factories. The market may continue to be weak. For single - side operations, it is advisable to operate within a range and sell on rallies for hedging [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. Core Views - The glass and soda ash markets are experiencing a weak demand in the off - season, with both showing a trend of narrow - range fluctuations and a general outlook of weakening oscillations [1][2]. - The ferrosilicon and silicomanganese markets have obvious off - season characteristics, with both showing a continuous oscillating trend [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The glass futures rebounded slightly yesterday. In the spot market, the morning buying sentiment was good, but the overall purchase volume was average. Except for a price increase of a small - board safety glass brand, other brands' quotes were stable [1]. - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures oscillated downward yesterday. In the spot market, the overall downstream procurement was average, mainly for rigid - demand restocking, and the speculative sentiment was weak [1]. Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: With some production lines in the red, the glass supply decreased month - on - month. The downstream rigid demand remained weak, and real - estate data was still at a low level. During the traditional consumption off - season, the high inventory of glass strongly suppressed prices. Attention should be paid to glass factories' cold - repair plans and profit situations [1]. - Soda Ash: As previously - overhauled alkali plants resumed production and new projects were launched, the soda ash output increased month - on - month, resulting in a relatively loose supply. The demand from the float and photovoltaic sectors weakened, and the real - estate sector continued to drag down consumption. With the expected contraction of float - glass supply in the future and the approaching of the short - term consumption off - season, the demand for heavy soda ash was expected to weaken further. In the long run, oversupply would continue to push down prices [1]. Strategy - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2]. - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2]. Double Silicon (Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon) Market Analysis - Silicomanganese: Yesterday, the main contract of silicomanganese futures fell by 6 yuan/ton to 5610 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the silicomanganese market oscillated. At the beginning of the week, the market was full of wait - and - see sentiment, and there were few spot quotes. The price of 6517 silicomanganese in the northern market was 5480 - 5530 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5500 - 5550 yuan/ton. The silicomanganese output rebounded from a low level, the molten - iron output increased slightly, and the demand for silicomanganese increased slightly. The inventories of silicomanganese manufacturers and registered warrants were at medium - to - high levels, suppressing the price of silicomanganese. The port inventory of manganese ore decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to silicomanganese inventories and manganese - ore shipments [3]. - Ferrosilicon: Yesterday, the main contract of ferrosilicon futures closed at 5316 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from the previous day. In the spot market, the ferrosilicon market rose slightly. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5050 - 5150 yuan/ton (cash and tax included), and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5600 - 5750 yuan/ton. Currently, the ferrosilicon output increased month - on - month, the demand increased slightly, and the factory inventory was at a high level. As the consumption off - season approached, the consumption intensity of ferrosilicon would be tested. The ferrosilicon production capacity was relatively loose, and the short - term price was dragged down by costs. However, the overall restocking of ferrosilicon was in a healthy state. Attention should be paid to the impact of electricity - price changes and industrial policies on the black - metal sector [3]. Strategy - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [4]. - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The 9 - department released the "Implementation Plan for High - quality Development of the Gold Industry (2025 - 2027)", focusing on resource security, technological autonomy, and green transformation to enhance the global competitiveness and strategic security guarantee ability of China's gold industry [1]. - The Hangzhou Housing Provident Fund Management Center launched a business allowing employees to use provident funds to directly pay the down - payment for newly built commercial housing, with online handling supported, and the online function for second - hand houses is under development [1]. - The overall industry credit spread has recently declined slightly [5]. 3) Summary by Directory A. Upstream - Oil prices continue to rise, with the upward trend slightly moderating compared to last week; PTA prices have increased significantly [2]. B. Mid - stream - The recent seasonal decline in the operating rates of PTA and PX in the chemical industry is at a three - year high [3]. C. Downstream - The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have recently declined seasonally, reaching a near - three - year low; the number of domestic flights has decreased cyclically [4]. D. Market Pricing - The industry credit spread across all industries has recently declined slightly [5]. E. Industry Credit Spread Tracking | Industry | Last Year's Same Period | First Quarter | One Month Ago | Last Week | This Week | Quantile | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |农牧渔林|68.20|81.35|77.83|60.41|58.97|0.40| |采掘|37.42|46.44|46.36|39.96|38.75|8.20| |化工|68.50|64.03|62.06|52.42|50.98|0.00| |钢铁|44.14|56.91|55.10|46.81|45.79|8.70| |有色金属|47.14|55.89|56.54|51.73|50.75|11.60| |电子|57.60|79.47|70.94|65.56|64.57|18.30| |汽车|64.73|65.98|50.32|41.90|40.50|0.20| |家用电器|44.44|53.86|47.58|46.04|45.75|11.00| |食品饮料|42.41|46.19|45.25|36.89|35.31|1.60| |纺织服装|50.71|57.83|53.41|51.88|51.16|7.00| |轻工制造|51.05|193.97|167.09|154.45|148.66|7.10| |医药生物|57.87|64.98|71.30|63.70|60.87|9.20| |必并事业|27.91|33.53|33.57|26.52|26.33|7.50| |交通运输|33.98|35.86|36.88|31.18|29.86|4.80| |房地产|234.76|151.73|126.20|101.86|99.89|2.70| |商业贸易|48.49|51.32|50.24|42.85|41.84|4.00| |休闲服务|80.43|103.67|119.48|119.25|118.64|96.80| |银行|29.04|32.54|19.80|18.03|18.25|5.00| |非银金融|30.98|36.62|34.18|28.55|29.03|6.20| |综合|69.61|50.38|49.74|43.03|41.38|0.70| |建筑材料|36.53|45.83|46.19|39.36|37.52|7.00| |建筑装饰|45.68|56.39|54.48|60.68|58.82|24.70| |电气设备|54.94|86.98|79.25|74.88|78.84|40.90| |机械设备|36.82|40.70|44.64|42.32|40.66|14.40| |计算机|69.57|69.68|61.96|50.70|48.66|0.00| |传媒|220.47|45.99|45.79|38.85|37.67|0.20| |通信|33.18|38.14|29.18|22.05|23.57|0.70| [51] F. Key Industry Price Index Tracking | Industry Name | Index Name | Frequency | Unit | Update Time | Current Value | Year - on - Year | Past 5 - day Trend | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/23 | 2345.7 | 0.43% | | | | Spot price of eggs | Daily | Yuan/kg | 6/23 | 5.9 | 5.41% | | | | Spot price of palm oil | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/23 | 8732.0 | - 0.82% | | | | Spot price of cotton | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/23 | 14881.8 | 0.49% | | | | Average wholesale price of pork | Daily | Yuan/kg | 6/23 | 20.1 | - 1.42% | | | Non - ferrous Metals | Spot price of copper | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/23 | 78388.3 | - 0.28% | | | | Spot price of zinc | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/23 | 21922.0 | - 0.36% | | | | Spot price of aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/23 | 20663.3 | 0.13% | | | | Spot price of nickel | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/23 | 119616.7 | - 0.33% | | | | Spot price of aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/23 | 16812.5 | 0.07% | | | Ferrous Metals | Spot price of rebar | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/23 | 3071.0 | 0.03% | | | | Spot price of iron ore | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/23 | 724.7 | - 1.61% | | | | Spot price of wire rod | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/23 | 3255.0 | 0.54% | | | Non - metals | Spot price of glass | Daily | Yuan/square meter | 6/23 | 13.8 | 0.14% | | | | Spot price of natural rubber | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/23 | 13808.3 | 0.29% | | | | China Plastic City Price Index | Daily | - | 6/23 | 834.1 | 0.53% | | | Energy | Spot price of WTI crude oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 6/23 | 73.8 | 1.18% | | | | Spot price of Brent crude oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 6/23 | 77.0 | 3.75% | | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/23 | 3970.0 | 0.25% | | | | Coal price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/23 | 728.0 | 2.28% | | | Chemical Industry | Spot price of PTA | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/23 | 5282.0 | 5.47% | | | | Spot price of polyethylene | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/23 | 7556.7 | 1.59% | | | | Spot price of urea | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/23 | 1824.0 | 1.11% | | | | Spot price of soda ash | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/23 | 1350.0 | - 1.46% | | | Real Estate | Cement price index (national) | Daily | - | 6/23 | 138.3 | - 1.53% | | | | Building materials comprehensive index | Daily | Points | 6/23 | 111.2 | - 0.50% | | | | Concrete price index (national) | Daily | Points | 6/23 | 98.8 | - 0.25% | | [52]

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦炭】6月23日，河北山东主流钢厂针对焦炭采购 价格下调湿熄50元/吨，干熄55元/吨，2025年6月23日0时起执 行。评：供应端，受陕西、内蒙古等地环保监察影响，部分焦 企开工依然受限，焦炭产量延续下滑。需求端，铁水产量小幅 回升，焦炭刚需仍存。库存方面，多数钢厂保持控量采购节 奏，焦企出货仍有压力，但在供应减少下，部分焦企库存回 落。总体来看，第四轮提降已落地，焦企利润被压缩，供应有 继续下跌预期。预计盘面短期承压震荡。 【短评-PVC】 华东SG-5型PVC 4830元/吨，下降10元/吨； PVC产能利用率78.62%，周下降0.63%；陕西金泰二期及福建万 华二期新投产计划，供应压力增加；PVC社会库存56.93万吨， 环比减少0.74%；全国电石法PVC生产企业平均毛利-494元/吨， 周上升18元/吨；全国乙烯法PVC生产企业平均毛利-640元/吨， 周降低80元/吨。评：PVC生产企业检修规模环比增加，PVC供应 仍维持高位，利润不佳，后续仍有新投产增量预期，需求维持 平稳，出口转入淡季。成本端原油价格下跌，PVC行业库存累库 及需求淡季，现货市场承压，终 ...

苯乙烯日报 | 2025-06-24 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差473元/吨（+22元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润273元/吨（-14元/吨），预期逐步压 缩。苯乙烯华东港口库存85000吨（+18700吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存66300吨（+21300吨），处于库存回建阶段。 苯乙烯开工率79.0%（+5.2%）。 下游硬胶方面：EPS生产利润167元/吨（+20元/吨），PS生产利润-483元/吨（+20元/吨），ABS生产利润93元/吨（+110 元/吨）。EPS开工率53.63%（-1.84%），PS开工率58.70%（+0.40%），ABS开工率63.97%（-0.11%），下游开工季节 性低位。 市场分析 主要驱动仍在于最上游成本端的原油价格波动，美国打击伊朗后，油价却有所回落，反映市场认为最激烈的预期 已兑现。纯苯方面，国产开工率已上升至高位，下游CPL及苯胺开工仍偏低，拖累纯苯需求，港口方面，后续韩国 发往中国压力仍大，纯苯港口库存本周初再度快速上升，压制纯苯加工费。苯乙烯方面，港口库存逐步进入回升 周期，且国内苯乙烯开工率进一步上升至近3年高位，工厂库存亦是累库周期。下游方面，PS及ABS ...

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 24 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭 ...

2025 年 06 月 24 日 品 研 究 豆粕：隔夜美豆收跌，连粕或跟随回落 【宏观及行业新闻】 6 月 23 日 CBOT 大豆日评：中西部天气有利，大豆承压回落。北京德润林 2025 年 6 月 24 日消息： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 豆一：市场氛围偏空，或调整震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2509 （元/吨） | 4250 -1 | （-0.02%） | 4250 -6（-0.14%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2509 （元/吨） | 3037 | -33（-1.07%） | 3028 -14（-0.46%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1046.5 | -14.0（-1.32%） | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 296.7 | -1.6（-0.54%） | n a | ...