Core Viewpoint - The global energy transition is entering a critical phase, with China's photovoltaic (PV) industry shifting from "scale expansion" to "quality leap" [1][3][10] Industry Overview - China's PV industry has established the most competitive supply chain globally, maintaining the highest production and installation capacity for over a decade [2] - In the first half of 2025, China is expected to add 212.21 GW of new PV installations, a 107% year-on-year increase, with a global installation forecast of 570-630 GW, of which China will account for over 45% [2] Technological Advancements - The N-type battery has become the market mainstream, with TOPCon technology accounting for over 75% of production capacity [2] - Leading companies like Longi Green Energy and Aiko Solar are innovating with technologies such as HIBC and BC, achieving significant efficiency improvements [2][7] Market Challenges - The PV industry faces structural contradictions, including overcapacity and intense price competition, leading to significant price fluctuations and profit margin compression [4][5] - As of July 2024, the production capacity across the main industry chain is expected to exceed 1200 GW, while global demand is only around 580 GW, resulting in a supply-demand imbalance [4] Policy and Industry Response - A comprehensive "anti-involution" campaign is underway, focusing on policy guidance and industry self-regulation to combat low-price competition and promote quality improvement [6][7] - The Central Economic Committee has emphasized the need for a unified national market and the orderly exit of outdated production capacity [6] Future Outlook - The PV industry is expected to transition from "volume competition" to "technology competition," with a focus on specialized applications and market differentiation [8] - The industry is predicted to experience a consolidation phase, enhancing overall competitiveness and addressing excess capacity [8][9] - With ongoing policy support and technological breakthroughs, the domestic PV industry is anticipated to overcome current challenges and contribute significantly to global energy transition efforts [10]

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2025 年 8 月 4 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/8/4 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 原油 | 工业硅 | 碳酸锂 | | | | 沥青 | 多晶硅 | 十债 | | | | 燃油 | 氧化铝 | 三十债 | | | | 橡胶 | 铝 | 五债 | | | | 甲醇 | 尿素 | 二债 | | | | 鸡蛋 | 焦煤 | 玻璃 | | | | 棉纱 | 铁矿石 | | | | | 棉花 | 螺纹钢 | | | | | 乙二醇 | 焦炭 | | | | | 短 ...

螺纹钢：市场情绪降温，宽幅震荡 2025 年 8 月 4 日 热轧卷板：市场情绪降温，宽幅震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 来源：Mysteel，同花顺，国泰君安期货研究所 【宏观及行业新闻】 7 月 31 日钢联周度数据：产量方面，螺纹-0.9 万吨，热卷+5.3 万吨，五大品种合计+0.65 万吨；总 库存方面，螺纹+7.65 万吨，热卷+2.79 万吨，五大品种合计+15.39 万吨；表需方面，螺-13.17 万吨，热 卷-8.31 万吨，五大品种合计-15.9 万吨。（数据来源：上海钢联） 【中共中央政治局:依法依规治理企业无房竞争。推进重点行业产能治理】会议指出要坚定不移深化改 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | （元/吨） 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB ...

2025 年 8 月 4 日 宏观政策落地 钢价震荡为主 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 钢材周报 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/8 ⚫ 宏观面：中美经贸会谈达成共识，双方将继续推动已暂 停的美方对等关税24%部分以及中方反制措施如期展期 90天。中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，会议强调， 做好下半年经济工作，要保持政策连续性稳定性，增强 灵活性预见性。纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，推动市 场竞争秩序持续优化。依法依规治理企业无 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant market correction in A-shares due to various underwhelming factors, with major indices experiencing declines: Shanghai Composite Index down 0.94%, Shenzhen Component down 1.58%, ChiNext down 0.74%, and STAR 50 down 1.65% during the week of July 28 to August 1, 2025 [1][9] - The macroeconomic drivers include the extension of the US-China tariff suspension for 90 days, alleviating short-term trade friction concerns, and the emphasis on "macro policy continuing to exert force and timely reinforcement" during the July Politburo meeting, which shifted focus to "implementing existing policies" [1][10] - The report notes a divergence in market performance, with technology sectors showing strength while cyclical sectors weakened, influenced by the tariff extension and domestic policy adjustments [1][9] Group 2 - The report recommends focusing on the banking sector, which has shown a divergence from the Shanghai Composite Index since July 11, 2025, suggesting that banks may become a choice for hedging against volatility as the market enters August [5][21] - The liquid cooling sector is highlighted due to the explosive growth in AI computing demand, projected to reach 725.3 EFLOPS by 2024, a year-on-year increase of 74.1%. The market for liquid cooling technology is expected to grow from 11.01 billion yuan in 2024 to 31.55 billion yuan by 2027, with a CAGR exceeding 40% [5][21] - The report emphasizes the challenges in implementing liquid cooling solutions, including system design complexity, construction risks, and high costs, which need to be addressed through comprehensive service models [5][21]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of "capacity governance" and "technological innovation" in driving economic growth and addressing challenges in China's economy [4] - The meeting highlighted that while the economy shows resilience and progress, it still faces significant risks and challenges [4] - The focus is on deepening reforms and fostering new competitive industries through technological innovation and integration with industrial innovation [4] Group 2 - A new round of supply-side reforms is emerging, benefiting leading companies in the chemical sub-industry as old capacities are phased out [5] - The chemical industry is currently experiencing low capacity utilization and profit margins, with a utilization rate of only 71.9% and a profit margin of 12.95% as of Q2 2025 [5][6] - The peak of new capacity additions in the chemical industry has passed, leading to a decrease in capital expenditure, which is expected to improve industry conditions [6] Group 3 - Technological innovation is crucial for the country's future development, with a focus on "domestic substitution" in materials [7] - The industry has made significant progress in overcoming technological barriers set by foreign manufacturers, particularly in semiconductor materials and high-performance new materials [7] - The emphasis is on investing resources in critical materials that have not yet achieved domestic production to ensure safety and self-sufficiency [7]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the bond market pressure has eased, signaling a potential turning point. The marginal softening of the "anti-involution" policy has reduced inflation expectations, and recent deep corrections in commodity futures have alleviated panic in the bond market, enhancing the willingness of investors to enter the market [4][23][25] - The stock market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, with the Shanghai Composite Index likely to fluctuate due to a vacuum in incremental policy. The omission of "rate cuts" in the recent political bureau meeting suggests a lower probability of new stimulus policies, shifting focus to the implementation of existing measures [5][25] - The report highlights two main investment directions: defensive stocks such as banks and non-bank financials that serve as stabilizers for the index, and opportunities in rare earths due to the US-China competition and price increases, as well as low-position opportunities in other thematic rotations [5][25] Group 2 - The report reviews significant events, including the continuation of US-China trade negotiations and the Chinese government's emphasis on stabilizing economic policies without aggressive measures like rate cuts. The meeting reiterated the need for a proactive macro policy while avoiding mention of "disorderly competition" [13][14] - The weekly market review indicates a rebound in the bond market, with a decrease in manufacturing PMI reflecting short-term disturbances in economic recovery. The report notes that the A-share market has seen a significant pullback, with some sectors reaching high valuations after a rapid increase since June [16][19] - The report tracks key indicators in the A-share and bond markets, noting that the yield curve remains historically low, and the valuation of A-shares has significantly adjusted downwards. The market's turnover rate has decreased, indicating lower trading enthusiasm and a decline in the profit-making effect [28][31][32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the steel sector, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, indicating a positive outlook for their performance [3][4]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment is stabilizing, with demand entering a seasonal lull. The political bureau meeting emphasized "anti-involution" and the need for orderly competition in key industries, shifting focus from price increases to rational competition and profit improvement [3][4]. - Short-term steel demand is expected to decline seasonally, leading to potential price corrections. However, long-term capacity governance remains a key theme, with expectations for improved profitability in steel companies as supply dynamics optimize [3][4]. - The report highlights a mixed performance in steel production and inventory levels, with total steel production rising to 8.67 million tons, while social inventory increased by 153,400 tons to 9.41 million tons [2][3]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of August 1, steel prices have decreased, with rebar priced at 3,350 CNY/ton (down 100 CNY), hot-rolled steel at 3,430 CNY/ton (down 120 CNY), and cold-rolled steel at 3,860 CNY/ton (down 40 CNY) [1][10][11]. Production and Inventory - Total production of five major steel products reached 8.67 million tons, with rebar production decreasing by 9,000 tons to 2.11 million tons. Social inventory rose by 153,400 tons to 9.41 million tons, indicating a mixed inventory situation [2][3]. Profitability - Steel profitability showed fluctuations, with long-process rebar and hot-rolled steel margins changing by +20 CNY/ton and -14 CNY/ton respectively. Short-process electric arc furnace steel margins increased by +38 CNY/ton [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel in the flat steel sector, and Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel in the special steel sector, among others [3][4].

作者 | 独行侠 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 今年 7月，是中国资本市场史诗级的一个月。尤其是大宗商品市场，极致的过山车行情，实属历 史罕见。 前 19个交易日，文华商品指数累计大涨7.2%。其中多晶硅大涨64%，焦煤大涨50%，玻璃大涨 34%。而后短短6个交易日，大盘回吐了一半涨幅，焦煤、玻璃又纷纷重挫20%左右。要知道， 商品往往有10倍或以上的杠杆，赚钱、亏钱都是成比例大幅扩大。 一念天堂，一念地狱。为什么商品市场会如此极端？商品对应的 A股周期股行情又会如何演绎？ 01 从 7月1日开始，不管是大宗商品市场，还是A股市场，均迎来了一波酣畅淋漓的大涨行情。 导火索无它，即 第六次中央财经委员会召开。它的前身是中央财经领导小组， 2018年3月改名 而来，职责是 针对经济领域的顶层设计、总体布局、统筹协调、整体推进、督促落实。 因此，资本市场对此次重磅会议给予了高度关注，并积极定价。尤其是会议中有一句重磅定调： 依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出。 彼时，市场更在意 "低价"、"落后产能""退出"等关键词，开始与2015年底启动的 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the lithium battery and certain cyclical sectors, with prices recovering to levels seen in the same period of 2024 [1]. Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI for July 2025 shows a slight decline to 49.3%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity, while non-manufacturing sectors remain above the threshold but show marginal slowdown [2][9]. - The report highlights a recovery in prices for raw materials and finished goods, driven by anti-involution policies aimed at improving market conditions [5]. - Various industrial sectors are experiencing different levels of growth, with high-performing sectors including non-ferrous metals and machinery, while pharmaceuticals and textiles face challenges [4][5]. Summary by Sections Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing sector's PMI has decreased, reflecting a contraction in production and new orders, with the production index at 50.5 and new orders at 49.4 [9]. - The consumer confidence index has shown a positive year-on-year recovery, although retail sales growth is expected to slow down in the coming months [4]. High-Frequency Indicators - Revenue, industrial added value, and PPI growth rates are analyzed across various sectors, with non-ferrous metals and machinery showing high growth, while pharmaceuticals and textiles are underperforming [4][7]. - The supply side indicates low growth in finished goods inventory and a decrease in fixed asset investment growth, suggesting reduced long-term supply pressure in certain sectors [4][8]. Advanced Manufacturing - The report notes that anti-involution measures have led to price recovery in the photovoltaic and lithium battery supply chains, although demand-side constraints remain [5]. - The machinery sector is experiencing stable growth in excavator and heavy truck sales, while new shipbuilding prices and orders have turned negative [5]. Financial Sector - Insurance premium income has increased by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with a positive outlook for the second half as interest rates are expected to decline [5]. Real Estate and Construction - Real estate investment and sales continue to slow, with a notable decline in cement prices, while building materials and home retail sales are accelerating [5]. - The report highlights a decrease in new construction starts and ongoing projects, impacting construction investment [5]. Energy and Commodities - The report discusses the impact of high temperatures on coal and steel prices, with a recovery in oil prices driven by improved economic resilience [5]. - The prices of industrial metals are influenced by U.S. economic conditions and tariff expectations, with copper prices experiencing volatility [5].