Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the equity market is expected to start a new upward wave in Q1, with a long - position overweight strategy for the stock index. The bond market may continue its weak performance at the beginning of 2026 but could have a rebound after the Spring Festival, with a short - position hedge before the Spring Festival and a long - position underweight after. Commodities should be structurally allocated, with long - position overweight on precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and new energy commodities, long - position standard allocation (timing) on black building materials and agricultural products, and short - position standard allocation on crude oil [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Review of the Performance of Major Asset Classes - **Equity Market**: In December 2025, the A - share market oscillated upward, switching back to the growth - oriented style. Most primary industry indices rose, with national defense, communications, non - ferrous metals, non - bank finance, and machinery leading the monthly gains [8][10]. - **Bond Market**: The performance of short - and long - term bonds diverged. Short - term Treasury yields declined while long - term yields increased, and the Treasury term spread widened significantly. By December 31, 2025, the 2 - year and 5 - year Treasury yields dropped to 1.3605% and 1.3830% respectively, while the 10 - year and 30 - year yields rose to 1.8473% and 2.2674% [13]. - **Commodities**: The prices of domestic commodity futures were differentiated, with precious metals leading the gains. As of December 28, 2025, the precious metals index soared 14.38%, the metal index rose 6.18%, the industrial products index increased 1.44%, and the agricultural products index slightly declined 0.59% [17]. 2. Outlook and Analysis of Major Asset Classes - **Macroeconomic Aspect**: Abroad, the probability of further interest rate cuts by the Fed may decrease. Domestically, the probability of interest rate cuts in Q1 2026 is low, but a reserve requirement ratio cut is still expected [19][28]. - **Equity Assets**: In the short - to - medium term, the cross - year market has started, and the equity market is expected to start a new upward wave in Q1 2026. In the long - term, the policy and liquidity environment in 2026 are favorable to the market [31][32]. - **Bond Assets**: The bond market may continue its weak performance at the beginning of 2026, with the upper limit of the 10 - year Treasury yield before the Spring Festival likely between 1.90% - 1.95%. After the Spring Festival, there may be an oversold rebound opportunity [35][36]. - **Commodities**: The differentiation pattern of commodities will continue. Crude oil may remain weak after a short - term rebound. Industrial metals may face supply - demand imbalance, and agricultural product prices may fluctuate more due to various factors. Precious metals may experience significant short - term fluctuations but maintain an upward long - term trend [37][38]. 3. Allocation Strategies for Major Asset Classes - **Domestic Stock Index**: In 2026, the equity market should be strategically allocated, with a long - position overweight in January. Focus on industries such as the AI industry chain, leading companies going global, industries with improved supply - demand relationships, and the industrialization of cutting - edge technologies [40]. - **Commodities**: Increase the weight of commodities in the asset allocation. Overweight precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and new energy commodities; standard - allocate black building materials and agricultural products (timing); and short - allocate crude oil [41][42]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Hedge with short positions before the Spring Festival and underweight long positions after the Spring Festival. The bond market will remain volatile in 2026 and should be under - allocated [43].

Group 1 - The report highlights a "wide monetary + wide credit" environment, indicating stable credit expansion momentum and low risks of tightening financial conditions, which supports macroeconomic performance and asset markets [1][11] - In December, the major stock indices in China rose, reinforcing the consensus of a "slow bull" market, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks, driven by increased ETF inflows [2][27] - The report suggests a shift in market style from a "dumbbell" approach favoring micro-cap and dividend value stocks to a more balanced "olive" shape favoring mid-cap stocks [2][27] Group 2 - The bond market showed signs of pressure, with the 10-year government bond yield declining faster than fundamental indicators, indicating accumulated adjustment risks [3][27] - The report notes that the Chinese yuan has returned to the "6" range, supported by external factors such as the weakening US dollar and internal economic recovery momentum [3][27] - Commodity markets displayed strength overall, with significant performance in precious metals like gold, driven by factors such as geopolitical risks and central bank purchases [4][27] Group 3 - The report recommends asset allocation strategies, suggesting a higher allocation to equities under an aggressive scenario (30% stocks, 70% bonds) and a more conservative approach (15% stocks, 85% bonds) [4][22] - Global asset allocation models indicate a preference for equities in various countries, with specific allocation percentages for major markets like the US, Germany, and Japan [22][23] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring market sentiment indices, which can provide insights into investor behavior and market trends [50][57]

中信证券指出，展望2026年1月，大类资产配置层面，建议增配股票和能化；股票风格配置层面，看好 小市值风格和成长风格；股票行业配置层面，旅游、汽车、芯片等行业具有较好的配置价值。截至2025 年12月末，高频宏观因子配置组合、大盘/小盘风格配置组合、成长/价值风格配置组合、股票行业配置 组合2025年实现绝对收益分别为8.1%、34.3%、24.6%和20.4%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The fund issuance market in early 2026 is experiencing a surge, particularly in FOF (Fund of Funds) products, driven by customer demand, product transformation, and channel support [1]. Group 1: FOF Sales and Market Dynamics - On January 5, 2026, Wanji Fund's FOF product sold out in just one day, marking it as the first new fund of the year to achieve this feat [2]. - On January 6, 2026, Guangfa Fund's FOF also announced an early closure of its fundraising, completing in only two trading days [3]. - The FOF products are becoming the main focus for banks, with many institutions planning to launch multiple asset FOF products throughout the year [4]. Group 2: Customer Demand and Supply Factors - In 2026, a total of 20.7 trillion yuan, 9.6 trillion yuan, and 1.3 trillion yuan of 2-year, 3-year, and 5-year fixed-term deposits will mature, representing an increase of 4 trillion yuan compared to 2025 [5]. - The low interest rates on fixed deposits are failing to meet investors' needs for capital preservation and growth, prompting a shift towards FOF products that offer diversified asset exposure [5]. - FOF products are designed to include a variety of underlying assets, such as U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and commodities, which can effectively diversify risk and capture more alpha opportunities [5]. Group 3: Changes in FOF Product Positioning - The role of FOF fund managers is evolving from merely selecting funds to focusing on asset allocation and developing more refined strategies [6]. - Banks are actively promoting FOF products, with many large banks establishing dedicated marketing lines for FOF asset allocation [6]. - The selection criteria for fund managers in FOF products have become stricter, requiring experience in multi-asset management and volatility control [6]. Group 4: New Fund Issuance Trends - The FOF sales surge reflects a broader trend in the new fund issuance market, with 38 new funds launched between January 5 and January 7, 2026 [7]. - A total of 77 public funds are planned for issuance in January 2026, with the first trading week expected to account for 62.33% of the month's total issuance [7]. - Equity products continue to dominate the new fund landscape, with 26 index funds and 26 actively managed equity funds among the new offerings [8].

Core Insights - The fund issuance market in early 2026 is experiencing a significant surge, particularly in FOF (Fund of Funds) products, driven by customer demand, product transformation, and channel support [1][2][4] Group 1: FOF Product Performance - The first FOF product of 2026, Wanjiatai's "Stable Three-Month Holding FOF," sold out in just one day on January 5, marking a strong start for new fund issuance [1] - Following this, Guangfa's "Stable Three-Month Holding FOF" also announced an early closure of its fundraising after just two trading days [2] - FOF products are becoming the main drivers of sales for various banks, with many companies planning to launch multi-asset FOF products through different banking channels [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - A significant amount of residential fixed deposits, totaling 20.7 trillion yuan for 2-year, 9.6 trillion yuan for 3-year, and 1.3 trillion yuan for 5-year terms, will mature in 2026, creating a demand for new investment vehicles [4] - The low interest rates on fixed deposits are failing to meet investors' needs for capital preservation and growth, prompting a shift towards multi-asset and multi-strategy FOF products [4] - The design of FOF products offers advantages over traditional funds by diversifying underlying assets and capturing more alpha opportunities [4] Group 3: Channel and Marketing Strategies - Major banks are actively promoting FOF products, establishing dedicated marketing lines and sections for FOF on their wealth management platforms [5] - The selection criteria for fund managers in FOF products have become stricter, focusing on those with experience in multi-asset management and strong volatility control capabilities [6] Group 4: Fund Issuance Trends - From January 5 to 7, 38 new funds were launched, with a total of 77 public funds planned for issuance in January 2026, indicating a peak in fund issuance activity [7] - Equity products remain dominant, with 26 index funds and 26 actively managed equity funds among the new offerings, alongside a diversified product line including 12 bond funds, 11 FOFs, and 2 QDII funds [7]

- The **Artificial Intelligence Global Asset Allocation Model** applies machine learning to asset allocation problems, utilizing factor investment principles to score and rank assets, ultimately constructing a monthly quantitative equal-weighted strategy for global asset allocation[38][39][41] - The model's suggested weights for January include: government bond index (68.27%), SHFE gold (28.55%), Nasdaq (1.02%), ICE Brent oil (1.24%), and CSI 500 (0.92%)[38][41] - Historical performance from January 2021 to December 2025 shows annualized return of 6.78%, Sharpe ratio of 1.04, maximum drawdown of 6.66%, and excess annualized return of -0.38% compared to the benchmark[39][42] - Year-to-date return for the strategy is 7.18%, while the benchmark return is 18.14%[40][42] - The **Dynamic Macro Event Factor-Based Stock-Bond Rotation Strategy** incorporates macro timing modules and risk budgeting frameworks to generate stock-bond allocation weights for three risk profiles: aggressive, balanced, and conservative[43][44][45] - January stock weights are: aggressive (55.00%), balanced (14.60%), and conservative (0.00%)[43][45] - December macro signals include 60% strength for both economic growth and monetary liquidity dimensions[43][45] - Historical performance from January 2005 to December 2025 shows annualized returns of 20.03% (aggressive), 10.84% (balanced), and 5.88% (conservative), outperforming the benchmark's 8.97%[44][49] - Year-to-date returns are 15.77% (aggressive), 4.23% (balanced), and 0.70% (conservative), compared to the benchmark's 15.95%[44][49] - The **Dividend Style Timing Strategy** leverages 10 indicators from economic growth and monetary liquidity dimensions to construct a timing strategy for dividend indices, showing enhanced stability compared to the CSI Dividend Total Return Index[50][51][53] - January recommended allocation for CSI Dividend is 0%, as most signals did not indicate a bullish outlook[50][54] - Historical performance includes annualized return of 16.18%, maximum drawdown of -21.22%, and Sharpe ratio of 0.93, outperforming the CSI Dividend Total Return Index's annualized return of 11.28% and Sharpe ratio of 0.57[50][53]

Core Insights - The fund issuance market in early 2026 is experiencing a surge, particularly in FOF (Fund of Funds) products, driven by customer demand and competition among banks and fund companies [1][6] Group 1: FOF Product Performance - On January 5, 2026, Wanji Fund's FOF product sold out in just one day, marking it as the first new fund of the year to achieve this feat [2] - On January 6, 2026, GF Fund's FOF also announced an early closure of its fundraising, completing its collection in only two trading days [2] - The rapid sales of FOF products are attributed to banks setting high fundraising targets, such as 2 billion or 3 billion yuan, which, once reached, lead to early closure of the fundraising period [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - In 2026, a total of 20.7 trillion yuan, 9.6 trillion yuan, and 1.3 trillion yuan of 2-year, 3-year, and 5-year fixed-term deposits will mature, representing an increase of 4 trillion yuan compared to 2025 [4] - The low interest rates on fixed deposits are failing to meet investors' needs for capital preservation and growth, prompting a shift towards FOF products that offer diversified asset allocation [4] - FOF products are designed to include a variety of underlying assets beyond traditional equity and bond funds, such as U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and commodities, which helps in risk diversification and capturing alpha opportunities [4] Group 3: Supply and Channel Strategies - The role of FOF fund managers is evolving from merely selecting funds to focusing on asset allocation and developing refined strategies [5] - Major banks are actively promoting FOF marketing plans, with many large banks establishing dedicated FOF sections on their wealth management platforms [5] - The demand for FOF products is supported by the requirement for fund managers to have experience in multi-asset management and strong volatility control capabilities [5] Group 4: New Fund Issuance Trends - The FOF sales surge reflects a broader trend in the new fund issuance market, with 38 new funds launched between January 5 and January 7, 2026 [6] - A total of 77 public funds are planned for issuance in January 2026, with the first trading week expected to account for 62.33% of the total monthly issuance [6] - Equity products dominate the new fund landscape, with 26 index funds and 26 actively managed equity funds among the new offerings [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a comprehensive analysis of macroeconomic and technical indicators for major asset classes, indicating a bullish outlook for equities, a bearish stance on bonds and gold, and a mixed view on industrial products [1][7][23]. Macroeconomic Analysis - Equities are favored in the current macroeconomic environment, with a positive outlook supported by favorable macro indicators [2][7]. - Bonds are viewed negatively, with macroeconomic conditions suggesting a bearish trend [2][7]. - Gold is also seen as unfavorable from a macro perspective, despite a positive technical trend [2][7]. - Industrial products are supported by macroeconomic factors, although the technical trend is currently downward [2][7]. Technical Analysis - The technical indicators show an upward trend for equities and gold, while bonds and industrial products are trending downward [12][13]. - The latest technical scores indicate that equities have a positive trend score, while bonds and industrial products have negative scores [13]. Asset Allocation Performance Tracking - Historical performance data shows that a fixed ratio combined with macro and technical indicators yielded a return of 12.10% for 2025, with an annualized return of 10.22% since April 2006 [3][28]. - The volatility-controlled and risk parity strategies also demonstrated returns of 14.94% and 7.90%, respectively, since April 2006 [3][31]. Asset Allocation Strategy - The asset allocation strategy involves a fixed ratio for equities, bonds, commodities, and cash, with adjustments based on macro and technical signals [24][25]. - The historical performance of the asset allocation strategies indicates that the combination of macro and technical indicators has been effective in enhancing returns while managing risk [28][31].

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities forecasts a moderate recovery of China's macro economy in 2026, with an expected GDP growth rate of 4.9%, characterized by structural differentiation [1] Economic Outlook - The report anticipates resilient exports and a gradual recovery in investments, while consumer goods consumption may face short-term pressure [1] - The macroeconomic environment in 2026 is expected to feature marginal liquidity easing alongside moderate economic recovery [1] Asset Class Recommendations - Recommended asset classes in order of preference: commodities > stocks > bonds [1] Equity Market Projections - The report predicts a 5%-10% increase in the annual performance of the Wind All A-share index in 2026 [1] - Hong Kong stocks are expected to experience a performance rebound and a second round of valuation recovery, termed a "Davis Double" [1] - US stocks are likely to maintain growth momentum under a backdrop of fiscal and monetary easing during the midterm election year [1] Bond Market Expectations - The 10-year Chinese government bond yield is projected to fluctuate between 1.5% and 1.8%, with a pattern of decline followed by an increase [1] - The 10-year US Treasury yield is expected to remain within a range of 3.9% to 4.3% [1] Commodity Market Insights - The oil supply-demand balance is shifting from surplus to equilibrium, with Brent crude oil projected to oscillate between $58 and $70 per barrel [1] - Gold is expected to remain strong due to liquidity easing and geopolitical risks, with potential to reach $5,000 per ounce, although the growth rate may slow [1] - Copper is anticipated to have strong support driven by supply constraints and electricity demand, with an average price forecasted to rise to $12,000 per ton [1] Currency Outlook - The Chinese yuan is expected to enter a period of mild appreciation, with the USD/CNY exchange rate gradually approaching 6.8 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report suggests that the asset environment in 2026 may exhibit characteristics of marginal liquidity easing and moderate economic recovery, recommending commodities over stocks and bonds [1] Group 2 - In terms of equities, the report anticipates a 5%-10% increase in the full-year performance of the Wind All A index for 2026, with Hong Kong stocks expected to experience a rebound in earnings and a second round of valuation recovery [1] - The US stock market is projected to maintain fundamental growth momentum under a backdrop of "fiscal + monetary" easing during the mid-term election year [1] Group 3 - For bonds, the 10-year China government bond yield is expected to fluctuate within a range of 1.5%-1.8% throughout the year, with a pattern of initially declining and then rising [1] - The 10-year US Treasury yield is anticipated to remain within a range of 3.9%-4.3% [1] Group 4 - In the commodities sector, the oil supply-demand balance is shifting from surplus to equilibrium, with Brent crude oil projected to fluctuate between $58-$70 per barrel for the year [1] - Gold is expected to maintain strength supported by liquidity easing and geopolitical risks, with a potential to reach $5,000 per ounce, although the rate of increase may slow [1] - Copper is forecasted to have strong support due to supply constraints and electricity demand, with an average price expected to rise to $12,000 per ton [1] Group 5 - Regarding exchange rates, the Chinese yuan is likely entering a period of mild appreciation, with the USD/CNY exchange rate expected to gradually approach 6.8 [1]