野村全球外汇策略团队在一份研究报告中表示，市场对日本央行将利率上调至1.00%甚至更高水平的怀 疑态度，似乎正在限制日元的走强。报告指出："尽管日本央行近期暗示可能在12月加息，但日元的升 值压力并未显著增强，美元兑日元仍维持在155以上。"团队成员表示："除非投资者看到日本央行发表 更多鹰派表态、愿意将实际利率从当前的负值进一步拉高，否则他们很难真正建立大规模的日元多头仓 位。" ...

Gold Market - Gold prices are currently in a critical phase, influenced by the decline in U.S. inflation data, which aligns with the Federal Reserve's expectations for a one-time impact from tariffs, strengthening market pricing for a rate cut [1] - The U.S. job market shows resilience, as indicated by initial jobless claims, which raises expectations for a hawkish rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [1] - The Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates in December, which could lead to a liquidity crisis and put short-term pressure on gold prices [1] - Short-term risks for gold prices are noted, but long-term trends suggest that rising U.S. federal debt will weaken the dollar's credibility, likely pushing gold prices higher [1] - Technical indicators show that gold is currently above the 20-day moving average, with resistance at $4220 and support at $4140 [1] Oil Market - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the slow progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks and potential U.S. actions against Venezuela, have limited short-term support for oil prices [2] - OPEC+ is maintaining its current production policy without plans for an increase in the first quarter of next year, which helps mitigate the risk of oversupply [2] - U.S. economic data presents mixed signals, with refinery utilization at 94%, indicating limited room for seasonal demand improvement [2] - Technical analysis indicates a risk of oil prices falling below the 20-day moving average, with a potential test of the $57 support level if downward momentum continues [2] U.S. Dollar Index - Recent comments from New York Fed President John Williams suggest there is still room for rate cuts, increasing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [3] - Current market data indicates an 89.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, with only a 10.6% chance of maintaining current rates [3] - The recent U.S. government shutdown has created a data vacuum, but improvements in ADP data have eased recession concerns, providing some support for the dollar [3] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has been experiencing a period of adjustment, with potential for further upward movement if it stabilizes above the 62-day moving average [5] - Current support is noted at the 49706 level [5] Copper Market - Recent trading in copper has shown small declines, indicating potential short-term downward risks [6] - The market remains bullish as long as prices stay above the 62-day moving average, with support at $5.20 [6] Iraq Oil Production - Iraq has shut down the entire production capacity of the West Qurna 2 oil field due to pipeline leaks, affecting daily output of approximately 460,000 barrels [7] Russian Gold Export Restrictions - Russia plans to limit gold bar exports starting in 2026, which may impact global gold supply dynamics [8] Bank of Japan's Bond Purchases - The Bank of Japan's Governor has indicated a willingness to increase government bond purchases if long-term interest rates experience sharp fluctuations [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to raise interest rates in December, with potential implications for both domestic and global markets, particularly in the context of contrasting monetary policies with the U.S. Federal Reserve [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - The BOJ is anticipated to increase the interest rate to 0.75% in December, with a subsequent hike expected in January 2027 [2][3]. - The last rate hike occurred in January 2023, raising the rate from 0.25% to 0.5%, marking the highest borrowing cost in 17 years [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Performance - Japan's GDP contracted by 1.8% year-on-year in Q3 2023, indicating a return to negative growth since Q1 2024 [2][4]. - The economic downturn is attributed to a decline in housing investment and a drop in exports, alongside stagnant private consumption and business investment [4][5]. Group 3: Inflation Dynamics - Inflation in Japan is primarily driven by supply-side factors, with over half attributed to these influences rather than demand-side factors [2][6]. - There is an expectation that inflation will transition from cost-push to demand-driven by 2026, aided by government fiscal policies [2][5]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Risks - The market has already priced in the BOJ's anticipated rate hike, suggesting limited risk of significant market volatility following the adjustment [3][4]. - The potential for a "Japan-U.S. monetary policy divergence" could lead to market fluctuations, especially with the U.S. Federal Reserve expected to announce rate cuts around the same time [4][5]. Group 5: Manufacturing Sector Insights - The Japanese manufacturing sector has shown signs of contraction, with the PMI recorded at 48.7, indicating ongoing challenges due to weak demand [6]. - Despite the current contraction, there are signs of improvement in sub-indices, suggesting potential for future production increases [6]. Group 6: Fiscal Policy and Debt Management - The BOJ is reducing its bond purchases, indicating a shift towards normalizing interest rates and managing its balance sheet effectively [8]. - The rise in long-term bond yields reflects fiscal policy adjustments rather than monetary policy changes, with the government focusing on selective spending and returning excess tax revenue to the public [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, domestic commodities fluctuated and declined, still in a range - bound oscillation with different sectors showing divergent trends. Industrial products and agricultural products indexes both fluctuated downwards, while gold and non - ferrous sectors performed strongly due to the rising expectation of the Fed's December interest - rate cut. The black - goods sector was weak, and the energy - chemical sector oscillated. Overseas, the weak ADP employment data supported the Fed's possible December interest - rate cut, but there was great uncertainty. If Hassett became the next Fed chair, he might support faster rate cuts. The Bank of Japan's governor hinted at a December rate hike. Domestically, in November, the macro - economic climate was stable but declined slightly, and although the full - year "guaranteeing 5%" target was achievable, future domestic demand remained weak. Commodity prices may maintain an oscillatory pattern, and attention should be paid to policy guidance and central banks' decisions [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Viewpoints - **Market Review**: This week, domestic commodities oscillated and declined, with different sectors showing different trends. Industrial products and agricultural products indexes declined, while gold and non - ferrous sectors were strong due to the rising Fed rate - cut expectation; the black - goods sector was weak because of domestic economic weakness and cooling policy expectations; the energy - chemical sector oscillated due to the intertwining of multiple factors [4]. - **Overseas Situation**: The ADP employment data in November showed a reduction of 32,000 private - sector jobs, the largest decline since March 2023. After the data release, traders expected a nearly 90% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut. The weak data supported a possible December rate cut, but there was great uncertainty. Trump seemed to have pre - selected Hassett as the Fed chair, with an over 80% probability according to Kalshi. If elected, Hassett might support faster rate cuts, but he needed to convince other FOMC members. The Bank of Japan's governor hinted at a December rate hike, which was earlier than market expectations [4]. - **Domestic Situation**: In November, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.2, non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5, and the composite PMI was 49.7%. The manufacturing PMI slightly rebounded, but the service industry PMI declined significantly, and the overall macro - economic climate was stable but declined. Future domestic demand remained weak, but the full - year "guaranteeing 5%" target was achievable. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting, the Central Economic Work Conference, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting in December [4]. - **Commodity Outlook**: Commodities may maintain an oscillatory pattern due to the intertwining of multiple macro - factors. Uncertainty about the Fed's December rate cut, the Bank of Japan's possible rate hike, weak domestic economic growth, and geopolitical changes may all cause market fluctuations. Attention should be paid to central banks' decisions [4]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - The ADP employment data in November was weak, which supported the Fed's possible December rate cut, but there was great uncertainty. Trump seemed to pre - select Hassett as the Fed chair, and if elected, he might support faster rate cuts but needed to convince other FOMC members. The Bank of Japan's governor hinted at a December rate hike, earlier than market expectations [4]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **PMI**: In November, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.2, non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5, and composite PMI was 49.7%. The manufacturing PMI slightly rebounded, but the service industry PMI declined significantly. The overall macro - economic climate was stable but declined, and future domestic demand remained weak. The full - year "guaranteeing 5%" target was achievable, and attention should be paid to relevant meetings in December [25]. - **REITs**: In December, the REITs market showed certain trends. In November 2025, there were some changes in the REITs market compared with the previous period [29]. - **Other Economic Indicators**: In 2025, there were comparisons of some economic indicators with 2024, such as GDP - related data, showing certain growth and changes in the economic structure [30]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Production**: The operating rates of the polyester industry chain and blast furnaces showed different trends at different times. For example, in December, the operating rates of PTA and POY were 74.1% and 89.00% respectively [41]. - **Automobile Sales**: In November and December, the wholesale and retail data of automobile manufacturers showed certain growth rates and changes, such as a 24.29%, 25.61%, and 30.47% increase in some data [48]. - **Agricultural Product Prices**: In December, the average wholesale prices of some agricultural products such as vegetables, pork, fruits, and the agricultural product wholesale price 200 - index showed different trends [50].

上海东证期货有限公司 目录 一、宏观脉络追踪 二、全球大类资产走势一览 三、大类资产周度展望 ——贵金属、外汇、美股、A股、国债 四、全球宏观经济数据跟踪 一、宏观脉络追踪 宏观脉络追踪 本周海外市场较为平淡，ADP就业数据进一步走弱，9月PCE数据符合预期，市场充分计价12月降息，风 险偏好温和回升。周中日本央行意外释放加息信号，市场流动性边际紧张，但特朗普强烈暗示哈塞特可能 成为下一任美联储主席，市场对于美联储远期持续释放流动性预期增强，全球流动性仍将维持充裕，日本 加息仅造成短期扰动。不过，美国服务业ISM维持韧性，消费者信心有所改善，美国经济仍未显著恶化， 美联储降息空间有限，未来降息路径仍有博弈空间，风险资产普遍高位震荡，短期缺乏进一步催化，关注 下周美联储利率会议后资金获利了结的风险。 国内市场无论是对即将召开的政治局会议的预期还是对岁末年初稳经济政策如何接力的预期，均比较低， 中日关系紧张态势未消也对市场形成一定的阻力。关注即将召开的政治局会议，未来政策刺激的力度和节 奏将为后续市场表现定调。 全球宏观及大类资产配置周报 东证衍生品研究院 宏观策略组 2025年12月8日 二、全球大类资产走势一 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the financial futures industry is "Bullish sentiment boosts, oscillating with an upward bias" [1] Core View of the Report - On December 7, all four major index futures contracts for the current month rose. The total trading volume of index futures increased, indicating a rise in investors' trading enthusiasm. The total positions also increased. The market was influenced by multiple factors such as industry policies and macro - economic data [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Index Futures Data - **IF Contracts**: The closing price of IF2512 was 4574.4, up 1.02%, with a basis of - 10.14, a trading volume of 84754 (up 21046), and an open interest of 143296 (up 6821). The total trading volume of IF increased by 32245 lots, and the total open interest increased by 15227 lots [1][2] - **IH Contracts**: The closing price of IH2512 was 2997.4, up 1.08%, with a basis of - 4.61, a trading volume of 38569 (up 10881), and an open interest of 59755 (up 6493). The total trading volume of IH increased by 17408 lots, and the total open interest increased by 11534 lots [1][2] - **IC Contracts**: The closing price of IC2512 was 7083.2, up 1.54%, with a basis of - 14.64, a trading volume of 83349 (up 18628), and an open interest of 130990 (up 7712). The total trading volume of IC increased by 32175 lots, and the total open interest increased by 16189 lots [1][2] - **IM Contracts**: The closing price of IM2512 was 7319.8, up 1.61%, with a basis of - 22.69, a trading volume of 146937 (up 30483), and an open interest of 189203 (up 8115). The total trading volume of IM increased by 48395 lots, and the total open interest increased by 19757 lots [1][2] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1; the trend intensity of IC and IM is 1. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval [6] 3. Important Drivers - On December 6, at the Eighth Member Congress of the China Securities Association, the CSRC Chairman Wu Qing delivered a speech, emphasizing the development of the A - share market, the role of securities companies, and the need to serve the real economy and new - quality productivity [6] - The draft of the "Guidelines for the Performance Appraisal and Management of Fund Management Companies" was issued, strengthening performance appraisal and increasing the follow - investment ratio requirements for executives and fund managers [7] - The US White House released a new version of the "National Security Strategy", readjusting its military presence in the Western Hemisphere [7] - The latest inflation data in the US gave the green light for a December interest rate cut by the Fed. The US core PCE price index in September increased by 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month [7] 4. Market Performance - The A - share market oscillated upwards, with over 4300 stocks rising. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.7% to 3902.81 points, and the total trading volume was 1.74 trillion yuan [8] - The three major US stock indexes rose slightly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.22% to 47954.99 points, the S&P 500 Index rose 0.19% to 6870.4 points, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.31% to 23578.13 points [9] 5. Top 20 Member Position Changes - For IF contracts, the long - position changes of different contracts varied, and the short - position changes also showed differences. For example, in IF2512, the long - position increased by 6419, and the short - position increased by 7703 [5] - Similar situations existed for IH, IC, and IM contracts, with some data not disclosed [5]

Core Viewpoint - The market is increasingly speculating that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates this month, yet participants continue to bet on a weaker yen against the dollar [1][2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Positioning - Traders from Bank of America, Nomura Holdings, and Royal Bank of Canada indicate that investor positioning reflects a bearish sentiment towards the yen, as evidenced by Citigroup's yen "pain index" remaining well below zero [1]. - Despite the Bank of Japan Governor Ueda's hints at a potential rate hike, investors maintain bearish bets, reasoning that even if action is taken, Japanese yields are expected to remain significantly lower than those in the U.S., supporting the dollar [1]. - The positioning still leans towards a gradual increase in the dollar-yen exchange rate by year-end, unless there is a significant surprise from the Bank of Japan [1]. Group 2: Currency Trends and Predictions - Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama's efforts to curb the yen's weakness have had limited success, with the yen's decline partly fueled by speculation regarding the delay in rate hikes [2]. - Following Ueda's comments, hedge funds have gradually reduced their bets on the dollar-yen rise, but most still hold this position [2]. - The options market shows a similar trend, with a 40% higher trading volume in call options compared to put options after Ueda's speech [2]. - UBS has revised its year-end yen exchange rate forecast from 152 yen to 158 yen per dollar, while Bank of America predicts the yen will fall below 160 yen by early 2026 [3].

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东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，受12月美联储降息预期升温、日本央行短期内加息概率上升等因素 带动，11月美元指数小幅下跌。这会带动中国外汇储备中非美元资产升值，小幅推高外汇储备规模。与 此同时，"美联储降息预期升温还带动当月美债收益率下行，美债价格走高，也会增加中国外汇储备月 末估值。"王青说。 中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬分析指出，中国稳步推进资本市场自主开放，对配置型外资准入实行绿 色通道等举措，有利于提升对境外投资者的吸引力，"中国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大，是 外汇储备规模保持基本稳定的根本支撑"。(完) 中新社北京12月7日电 (陶思阅)中国国家外汇管理局(下称"国家外汇局")7日发布统计数据显示，截至 2025年11月末，中国外汇储备规模为33464亿美元，较10月末上升30亿美元，升幅为0.09%。 国家外汇局表示，11月，受主要经济体宏观经济数据、货币政策预期等因素影响，美元指数下跌，全球 金融资产价格涨跌互现。汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素综合作用，当月外汇储备规模上升。中国经济 保持总体平稳、稳中有进发展态势，为外汇储备规模保持基本稳定提供支撑。 ...

油价夜盘收涨。市场预期美联储降息，俄乌和平计划进展停滞，削弱了市场对达成协议后恢复俄沟 出口预期。 周四调查显示，尽管OPEC+同意提高11月份产量，但由于一些成员国的停产， OPEC11月 石油产量仍有所下降，故该组织的供应量进一步低于其目标且略低于10月产量。综上，短期内利多 因素占据主导下油价震荡偏强。 【贵金属】 隔夜美国公布周度初请失业金人数降至19.1万人远低于预期，创2022年9月以来新低,缓解劳动力 市场急剧恶化担忧。12月降息已基本定价，贵金属震荡为主，黄金突破前高阻力前贵金属整体不宜 追高。 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年12月05日 (原油) 【铜】 隔夜铜价纪录位置震荡，LME现货升水缩至50美元，美伦溢价400美元以上。昨日国内现铜强跟涨到 91245元，上海升水扩至170元，精废价差扩至5000元以上，而周内SMM社库微减100吨。国内现货 信号及仓量跟踪,短线支持铜价。多单依托MA5均线持有,关注接近记录水平的量价表现。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝上涨。近期资金推涨有色,铝市远期存在偏紧预期，短期供需矛盾有限,铝锭社库维持窄 幅波动，季节性库 ...