Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced fluctuations due to a combination of strong U.S. economic data and geopolitical tensions, with support from market buying interest and the performance of other precious metals [2][3]. Fundamental Analysis - Recent U.S. economic data exceeded expectations, with Q2 GDP growth revised up to 3.8% and initial jobless claims falling to 218,000, below the anticipated 235,000 [2]. - The strong economic indicators have bolstered the U.S. dollar, which rose to a three-week high, increasing the holding costs of gold as it is priced in dollars [2]. - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in October decreased slightly from 90% to 85%, further pressuring gold prices [2]. - Geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, have heightened gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2]. - Active buying interest in the market has provided strong support for gold prices, with silver and platinum reaching multi-year highs, indicating sustained interest in precious metals [2]. Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold faced resistance at the 5-day moving average, with a critical support level at the 10-day moving average around 3705 [6]. - The recent price action shows a downward trend in daily highs, suggesting a continuation of a weak market sentiment unless gold can break above the resistance at 3762 [6]. - The four-hour chart indicates a stalemate between bulls and bears, with key levels at 3717 for support and 3762 for resistance, which will dictate the market direction [9]. Key Upcoming Events - The market is closely watching the upcoming U.S. PCE data and personal spending figures, as these will significantly influence gold's future trajectory [3][11]. - The core PCE price index is expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year, with potential implications for Federal Reserve policy and gold prices [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, which was anticipated but the extent of the cut was debated, particularly between President Trump and Fed Chair Powell [3][5][21]. Group 1: Economic Context - The U.S. economy's previous claims of prosperity are now being questioned, especially after disappointing employment data, with only 73,000 jobs added in July, significantly below the expected 104,000 [11][19]. - The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down previous employment figures by a total of 258,000 jobs, indicating a weaker job market than previously reported [13][17]. - The current inflation rate stands at 2.9%, which is above the Fed's long-term target of 2%, complicating the decision to lower rates [25][27]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - President Trump has been pressuring the Fed to lower rates more aggressively, advocating for a 50 basis point cut instead of the 25 basis points that were implemented [34][36]. - The relationship between the White House and the Fed has been tense, with Trump openly criticizing Powell and attempting to influence Fed decisions by appointing allies to the Fed [40][45]. - The urgency from the Trump administration stems from the need to stimulate the economy ahead of the upcoming midterm elections, prioritizing short-term economic performance over long-term inflation risks [55][57]. Group 3: Global Implications - The Fed's decision to lower rates is expected to lead to increased liquidity in the global market, potentially driving up asset prices linked to the dollar, such as gold and U.S. equities [60][63]. - A significant influx of dollars into the global market could benefit emerging economies, but it may also lead to challenges for U.S. exports if the dollar appreciates [67][69]. - Historical patterns suggest that the impact of rate cuts on various assets can vary significantly depending on the economic context, with current conditions indicating a complex scenario for future monetary policy [71][73].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices are currently experiencing a volatile upward trend, trading around $3646.18 per ounce, following a slight decline of 0.2% to $3632.49 per ounce [2] - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by 38%, driven by geopolitical risks, inflation pressures, and expectations surrounding U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve monetary policy [2] - The latest U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August rose by 2.9% year-on-year, marking a seven-month high, while initial jobless claims surged to 263,000, indicating a weakening labor market [2] - Despite a recent pullback from a record high of $3674.36, the overall bullish trend for gold remains intact, with support levels identified around $3620 [3][5] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil futures fell by 0.45% to $66.07 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped by 0.5% to $62.00 per barrel, reflecting ongoing market pressure [6] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that global supply growth will outpace expectations by 2025 due to OPEC+ production plans, while OPEC maintains a positive outlook for global demand growth [6] - The oil market is currently facing a dual challenge of increasing supply and demand uncertainties, with OPEC+ deciding to raise production quotas starting in October [6] - Technical analysis indicates that oil prices are in a weak downward trend, with short-term resistance levels at $65.0-$66.0 and support levels at $62.0-$61.0 [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing fluctuations but remain in a strong upward trend, with significant support from geopolitical risks and inflation pressures [2][3] - As of September 12, spot gold is trading around $3635.18 per ounce, having seen a slight decline of 0.2% from the previous day, but still close to the record high of $3674.36 set earlier in the week [2] - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by 38%, influenced by U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations [2] Group 2 - Recent U.S. economic data shows that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.9% year-on-year in August, marking a seven-month high, while initial jobless claims surged to 263,000, indicating a weakening labor market [2] - These mixed signals have led to increased volatility in the market but ultimately reinforced expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, providing further support for gold prices [2] - Technical analysis suggests that gold remains above the 5-day moving average, indicating no signs of a top and maintaining a strong bullish trend, with potential targets of $3660 and $3675 [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the impact of economic indicators and Federal Reserve monetary policy on gold prices, highlighting a strong consensus on an imminent interest rate cut [1][2] - Gold prices have shown significant volatility, with a recent peak at $3674.36 per ounce, reflecting a 38% increase year-to-date, driven by geopolitical risks and inflation pressures [1][2] - The latest U.S. economic data indicates a mixed picture, with a consumer price index (CPI) increase of 2.9% year-on-year, the highest in seven months, alongside a rise in initial jobless claims to 263,000, suggesting a weakening labor market [1][2] Group 2 - The market anticipates a 100% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting, with a 91% chance of a 25 basis point cut, reinforcing expectations for a looser monetary policy [2] - The low interest rate environment is expected to enhance the attractiveness of gold as a non-yielding asset, despite some signs of buyer fatigue in recent price movements [2] - Technical analysis indicates a bearish sentiment in the gold market, with a potential resistance level at $3650 and support around $3610, suggesting a cautious trading approach [3][5]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump has narrowed down the candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair to three or possibly four individuals, indicating strong support for Kevin Hassett, his chief economic advisor, to replace Jerome Powell [1] Group 1: Candidates for Federal Reserve Chair - The final candidates mentioned by Trump include Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, and Christopher Waller, with Hassett being the most prominently supported [1] - The candidate selection process initially considered up to 11 individuals, including various prominent figures from the financial sector [2] - Trump's previous statements indicated a fluctuating list of candidates, with Hassett and Warsh being consistently highlighted as top contenders [2] Group 2: Economic Context and Implications - Following a disappointing August jobs report, Hassett suggested that the market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September, although he speculated on the possibility of a larger cut [1] - Hassett downplayed the impact of the employment report, suggesting that revisions could lead to more favorable economic data in the future [1] - The ongoing tension between Trump and Powell regarding interest rate policies has raised questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve and its leadership under potential new appointments [1][2] Group 3: Hassett's Background and Position - Kevin Hassett has been a long-standing member of Trump's economic team, known for his alignment with Trump's policies on trade, taxes, and inflation [3] - His tenure as an economic advisor has been marked by a supportive stance towards Trump's administration, contrasting with previous advisors who attempted to moderate Trump's more extreme positions [3] - Hassett has expressed a strong desire to become the Federal Reserve Chair, although his public statements have been somewhat ambiguous [4]

Group 1: Market Reaction - Gold prices experienced a sharp drop to around 3351 before quickly rebounding above 3386, followed by a period of fluctuation, maintaining a range between 3380 and 3367 during the European session, and ultimately closing above 3393 in the US session, forming a bullish candlestick with a lower shadow [1][2]. Group 2: Fundamental Analysis - President Trump dismissed Federal Reserve Board member Cook, citing "improper conduct" in mortgage applications, which is seen as a direct challenge to the Fed's independence. Cook plans to sue, asserting that the President lacks the authority to dismiss her [2]. - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September have surged to over 87%, driven by comments from Powell regarding rising risks in the labor market, with institutions like Morgan Stanley predicting a rate cut [2]. - Economic data showed a 2.8% decline in July durable goods orders, better than the expected 4% drop, while consumer confidence fell in August, indicating a deteriorating labor market assessment. Upcoming GDP and PCE inflation reports will be critical for the Fed's September decision [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold is currently trading within a converging triangle pattern, with a clear trend structure. The recent price action shows alternating bullish and bearish candles, indicating that the overall upward momentum remains intact [4]. - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at 3415 and 3426, while support is focused at 3323, which is the lower boundary of the triangle. The daily moving averages are in a bullish configuration, suggesting continued upward momentum [5]. - On a four-hour basis, gold's price action displayed a pattern of "bottoming out and recovering," with critical levels to watch being 3367 for support and 3409 for resistance. A break above 3409 could indicate a larger upward trend [5][6].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices continued to rise, reaching a near two-week high of $3,386, driven by concerns over U.S. Federal Reserve independence and expectations of a rate cut in September [2] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September have increased to approximately 84.3%, up from 61.9% a month ago, enhancing gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [2] - The technical outlook for gold remains bearish in the medium term, with expectations of a decline towards the $3,150 to $3,120 range, and a potential ultimate target of $3,000 to $2,950 [3] Group 2: Short-term Gold Trading Strategy - Current support levels for gold have been raised to the $3,350 area, with key resistance at $3,400 to $3,410 [6] - The trading strategy suggests a focus on buying on dips around $3,365 and $3,350, while considering short positions near the upper resistance levels [6] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices experienced a slight decline after a strong rebound, with Brent crude down 0.23% to $68.64 per barrel and WTI down 0.54% to $64.46 per barrel [7] - Despite the recent pullback, oil prices remain in an overall upward trend, supported by supply concerns and potential sanctions [7] - The technical analysis indicates a small arc bottom formation in oil prices, with a focus on the $65 resistance level and a potential bearish outlook if prices fall below $64 [8]

Report Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a predicted upward trend [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a predicted upward trend [1] Core Viewpoints - Last week, precious metals showed a strong sideways movement. Geopolitical negotiations between the US and Russia stalled, and the possibility of the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiation remains uncertain. Fed Chair Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting led to a drop in the US dollar and a short-term jump in precious metals. A rate cut in September is almost certain, and the degree and persistence of the rate cut will be debated later. If the US economic data weakens significantly, the upside potential for gold may open up; if the economy has a relatively soft landing, be cautious at high levels. Short-term international gold and silver are in a sideways range with key resistance above. Maintain the idea of buying on dips [1]. - This week, focus on the US PCE data [1]. Summaries by Related Topics Fed's Stance - Harker believes the Fed should be cautious about rate cuts; a significant weakening of the job market may prompt a rate cut, and the Fed is still far from its inflation target [2]. - Collins thinks the risks of the dual mandate are roughly balanced. Employment growth has slowed, and there is a reason to wait [2]. - Musalem says the risks in the job market are rising but not yet apparent. If the risks intensify, the policy rate may need adjustment [2]. - Trump believes Powell should have cut rates a year ago, and it's too late to signal a rate cut now. He also threatens to fire Fed Governor Cook [2]. Russia-Ukraine Situation - Trump sets a "two - week" timeline, which may increase the intensity of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [2]. - The US Vice President says new sanctions on Russia are "not impossible" [2]. - Zelensky is ready to take measures for peace and is cautious about Russia's signals [2].

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