Core Viewpoint - The recent significant price drop of 3.8 million yuan for a property in the Greentown Gui Guan Dongfang has sparked discussions, highlighting the current state of the second-hand housing market in the Asian Games Village area [1][3]. Property Pricing and Market Dynamics - The Greentown Gui Guan Dongfang property was initially listed at 11.8 million yuan, equating to approximately 68,000 yuan per square meter, and was later reduced to 8 million yuan, resulting in a price of about 46,300 yuan per square meter [4]. - The property has seen a surge in viewing interest, with an average of over one group viewing per day in the past week, and more than 40 potential buyers showing interest [4][9]. - Despite the price drop, the property remains unsold due to additional costs such as parking spaces, which are priced at 800,000 yuan for two spaces, making the effective price less attractive [9]. Market Trends and Comparisons - The Asian Games Village area has a diverse range of properties, with prices varying significantly based on location, building type, and unit size, leading to a wide price range in the second-hand market [11]. - The average listing price for second-hand properties in the Asian Games Village is around 70,000 to 80,000 yuan per square meter, with some properties still priced close to their original purchase price [13]. - The overall second-hand housing market in Hangzhou has seen a decline in transaction volume in July, with 6,840 units sold, a decrease from June, but still showing resilience compared to the same period in previous years [16][17]. Future Market Outlook - Market analysts predict a potential upward trend in the housing market during the traditional peak selling months of September and October, with expectations that prices will stabilize and possibly increase [15][17]. - The current market is characterized by a strategy of "price for volume," indicating that sellers are adjusting prices to attract buyers amid a high inventory level of approximately 160,000 listings [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **沪镍**: The external market showed a pattern of rising and then falling, facing significant pressure at the 20 - day moving average. The industry chain presents a situation where ore prices and ferronickel prices are weakly stable, with some quotes rising, but the cost line remains at a low level. Stainless steel is in the traditional off - season in July and August, and the inventory of the 300 - series increased slightly this week. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, the loading volume of ternary batteries is decreasing, leading to a decline in nickel demand in the new energy sector. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The basis is positive, LME inventory increased, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts decreased. The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the main position is net short with a reduction in short positions. It is expected that Shanghai nickel 2509 will fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot stainless steel price remained flat. In the short term, nickel ore prices are weakly stable, sea freight rates are firm, and ferronickel prices are weakly stable with some slight increases, but the cost line is still at a low level. Stainless steel consumption has entered the off - season. The basis is positive, the futures warehouse receipts decreased. The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average. It is expected that stainless steel 2509 will fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - **Futures**: On August 6, the price of Shanghai nickel main contract was 121,070, up 160 from the previous day; the price of LME nickel was 15,130, up 75; the price of stainless steel main contract was 12,935, down 25. The nickel index of Wuxi trading center was 121,100, up 700, and the cold - rolled coil index was 12,520, up 20 [12]. - **Spot**: On August 6, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 122,100, up 200; the price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 123,200, up 200; the price of 1 imported nickel was 121,300, up 200; the price of nickel beans was 123,400, up 200. The prices of cold - rolled 304*2B in Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained unchanged [12]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of August 1, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 25,750 tons, with the futures inventory at 21,374 tons, an increase of 299 tons and a decrease of 573 tons respectively. On August 6, LME nickel inventory was 211,452, an increase of 198; Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 20,789, a decrease of 134; the total inventory was 232,241, an increase of 64 [14][15]. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On August 1, the inventory in Wuxi was 61,950 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 324,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1,111,200 tons, a decrease of 7,400 tons compared with the previous period. Among them, the inventory of the 300 - series was 676,700 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons. On August 6, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 102,803, a decrease of 62 [19][20]. Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices - On August 6, the price of red clay nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% was 57 US dollars per wet ton, and that with Ni0.9% was 29 US dollars per wet ton, both remaining unchanged. The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang was 11 US dollars per ton, and to Tianjin Port was 12 US dollars per ton, also unchanged. The price of high - nickel ferronickel was 918 yuan per nickel point, up 2; the price of low - nickel ferronickel was 3,400 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged [23]. Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost of stainless steel is 12,832, the production cost using scrap steel is 13,477, and the production cost using low - nickel and pure nickel is 16,404 [25]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price is 122,262 yuan per ton [28]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive factors**: The upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" period and the anti - involution policy [7]. - **Negative factors**: Domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there are no new growth points in demand, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged; nickel ore prices and ferronickel prices are weakly stable, and the cost line remains at a low level; the substitution ratio of ternary batteries is increasing [7].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The outer market of nickel has a slight correction, facing significant pressure at the 20 - day moving average. The prices of nickel ore and ferronickel are weakly stable, with some quotes rising, but the cost line remains low. The stainless - steel market is in the traditional off - season from July to August, and the inventory of 300 - series stainless steel has a slight increase this week. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, but the installed capacity of ternary batteries is decreasing, leading to a decline in nickel demand in the new energy sector. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The Shanghai nickel 2509 contract will fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot price of stainless steel has increased. In the short term, the price of nickel ore is weakly stable, the ocean freight is firm, and the price of ferronickel is weakly stable with some slight increases. The cost line is still low, and the stainless - steel consumption has entered the off - season. The stainless steel 2509 contract will also fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Price Changes** - **Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview**: On August 5th, the price of Shanghai nickel's main contract was 120910 yuan, up 280 yuan from the previous day; the price of London nickel was 15055 dollars, down 50 dollars; the price of stainless - steel's main contract was 12960 yuan, up 35 yuan. Among the spot prices, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121900 yuan, up 650 yuan [12]. - **Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices**: On August 5th, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 57 dollars/wet ton, down 1 dollar; the high - nickel ferronickel was 916 yuan/nickel point, up 2 yuan [24]. **Inventory Changes** - **Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory**: As of August 5th, LME nickel inventory was 211254 tons, an increase of 2172 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts were 20923 tons, a decrease of 247 tons [15]. - **Stainless - Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory**: As of August 5th, stainless - steel warehouse receipts were 102865 tons, a decrease of 60 tons. On August 1st, the national stainless - steel inventory was 111.12 million tons, a decrease of 0.74 million tons compared with the previous period, but the inventory of 300 - series stainless steel increased by 0.67 million tons [19][20]. **Cost Information** - **Stainless - Steel Production Cost**: The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 12807 yuan, the waste - steel production cost was 13477 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16399 yuan [26]. - **Nickel Import Cost**: The calculated import price of nickel was 121536 yuan/ton [29].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The raw - material cost support has weakened as the price of ferronickel has dropped significantly. The production profit of steel mills has improved, and it is expected that the steel production in August will increase. The end of the traditional off - season in the downstream, optimistic expectations for the peak season, and favorable domestic fiscal investment policies are likely to improve the supply - demand pattern. The inventory of domestic stainless steel has been well reduced, and the market inventory pressure has eased. Technically, with a slight increase in positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment is strong. It is recommended to go long with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,960 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the spread between the 08 - 09 contracts is 0 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 26,760 lots, down 1,983 lots; the position volume of the main contract is 85,949 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity is 102,865 tons, down 60 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed) in Wuxi is 13,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the SS main contract is 245 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel production is 22,600 metal tons, down 1,300 metal tons; the monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, down 472.3 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0414 million tons, up 193,200 tons; the SMM1 nickel spot price is 121,900 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 915 yuan/nickel point, up 5 yuan; the monthly Chinese ferrochrome production is 757,800 tons, down 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.744 million tons, down 40,700 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 608,000 tons, up 2,300 tons; the monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, down 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 30,3643,200 square meters, up 71,807,100 square meters; the monthly output of excavators is 26,800 units, up 1,000 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,700 units, down 2,900 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, down 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - Former New York Fed President Dudley wrote that Fed Chair Powell plans to serve until May 2026 and may remain as a governor. The EU will suspend two counter - measures against US tariffs for six months, which will take effect this week. On the raw - material side, the PNBP policy in Indonesia restricts the supply and increases the cost, but the ferronickel production in Indonesia has rebounded significantly [2].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - In July 2025, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a sales turnover of 211.16 billion yuan, a month-on-month decrease of 37.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 24.3% [1][9] - The cumulative sales turnover for the first seven months of 2025 was 1,863.84 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.5% [1][9] - The sales performance shows a divergence trend, with the top 10 companies experiencing a year-on-year change of -14.4%, while companies ranked 31-50 saw a decline of -47.1% [10][11] - The report indicates that the weak sales growth in July is attributed to seasonal factors, the pace of inventory release by developers, and a cautious demand awaiting policy changes [11] Summary by Sections Sales Performance Overview - In July 2025, the top 100 real estate companies' sales decreased by 40.3% month-on-month and 24.6% year-on-year [1][9] - The sales performance of state-owned enterprises, local state-owned enterprises, and private enterprises showed year-on-year changes of -24.2%, -34.7%, and -32.0% respectively [10] - The sales figures for companies in default and those not in default were -45.5% and -27.8% year-on-year [10] Market Dynamics - The new housing market saw a transaction volume of 2.31 million square meters in the week of July 26 to August 1, with a year-on-year decline of 19.93% [2][17] - The second-hand housing market recorded a transaction volume of 1.63 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 5.37% [2][24] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on non-state-owned enterprises benefiting from debt relief and policy support, as well as leading companies with product advantages [13][14] - Specific companies to watch include Longfor Group, Gemdale Corporation, and New Town Holdings among non-state-owned enterprises, and China Overseas Development and China Resources Land among state-owned enterprises [14]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is positive, indicating a favorable outlook for the sector [1][22]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes optimism for the steel industry during the peak seasons of September and October, suggesting that the current price declines should not deter investment [1]. - The report highlights that the overall inventory levels for major steel products have shown a slight increase, which may impact future pricing dynamics [4]. - The report notes that the average daily production of molten iron is projected to remain stable, indicating a balanced supply-demand scenario [8]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - The SW Steel Index has decreased by 2.2% week-on-week but has increased by 16.4% year-to-date [3]. - The price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is currently at 3,350 CNY per ton, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 2.9% and a year-to-date decrease of 1.8% [3]. Inventory Levels - The total social inventory of the five major steel products stands at 941,000 tons, with a year-to-date increase of 2% [4]. - The total inventory at steel mills is reported at 410,000 tons, which has increased by 16.9% year-to-date [4]. Supply and Demand - The report indicates that the average daily production of major steel products is expected to remain consistent, supporting stable market conditions [8]. - The report also mentions that the iron ore price index is currently at 99 USD per ton, down by 3.5% week-on-week [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the polyolefin industry. 2. Core View In August, with the improvement of both the macro - economic and fundamental aspects, polyolefins are expected to perform strongly [4]. 3. Summary by Section Macro - economic Analysis - **China**: In late June 2025, the broad money (M2) balance was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. In June, the CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year and fell 0.1% month - on - month, while the PPI fell 3.6% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month. From January to June, real estate investment, sales area, and sales volume all declined. With the implementation of relevant policies, the domestic macro - economic outlook is positive [6][8][11]. - **International**: In June 2025, the US CPI rose 0.3 percentage points to 2.7%, and the Eurozone's CPI in April rose 0.1 percentage points to 2%. The US economy remains resilient, and its major trading partners have reached trade agreements with it. After the stabilization of US tariffs, the inflation expectation will improve, and the Fed is likely to cut interest rates, bringing substantial benefits to the international macro - economy [13][17][20]. Fundamental Analysis - **PE**: In July, domestic PE production increased, with the output reaching 272.64 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.48%. The downstream demand decreased, with the average starting rate of downstream industries at 38.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4%. The social sample warehouse inventory rose to 56.17 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.77% [22][25][26]. - **PP**: In July, the supply of PP increased, with a total output of 342.50 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.53%. The downstream was in the off - season, with the average starting rate of plastic - weaving sample enterprises at 41.58%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.39 percentage points. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.45% month - on - month, while the trader inventory increased by 28.28% month - on - month [30][32][35]. Market Outlook - **PE**: In August, the domestic PE output is expected to be 272.71 million tons, basically the same as in July. The downstream demand is expected to improve, with the overall average starting rate of downstream industries increasing by 2% to 40.3%. The agricultural film industry is expected to enter the reserve stage, and the starting rate is expected to increase by about 5.5%. The average starting rate of PE packaging film is expected to increase by 2.5% [41]. - **PP**: In August, the planned maintenance loss is expected to be 54.996 million tons, and the output is expected to increase by 4.58% to 358.20 million tons. The downstream consumption is at the critical stage of transition from the off - season to the peak season, and there is a chance of improvement in overseas orders [42].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significance of September and October as a critical period for investors, referred to as the "golden period" for policy and capital resonance, where market activity peaks and investment opportunities arise [1]. Summary by Sections Event and Promotion - The "Financial Association Member Month" event runs from August 1 to August 31, 2025, featuring ten proprietary products including "Market Insights" and "Windfall Research," aimed at helping investors decode market trends at significant discounts [1]. Subscription Discounts - During the event, subscriptions for 1-month and 3-month Financial Association VIP information are available at a limited-time 15% discount, while 6-month and 12-month subscriptions are offered at a 20% discount, with potential savings of up to 2,778 yuan [3]. VIP Information Features - The VIP section of the Financial Association is designed to provide high-quality insights, supported by exclusive reports and data from various brokers and public-private investment institutions, making it a popular choice among investors [4]. Product Categories - The article outlines various product categories under the VIP section, including: - **Market Insights**: Real-time market updates and analysis [5]. - **Windfall Research**: In-depth reports on significant events and industry trends [5]. - **Event Analysis**: Quick assessments of market-moving news and policies [5]. - **Expert Meetings**: Regular discussions with industry experts to interpret policy and market changes [6]. Subscription Pricing - Detailed pricing for various VIP products is provided, with original and discounted prices for 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month subscriptions across different services, highlighting significant savings opportunities [7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19]. Customer Engagement - The article encourages potential subscribers to engage with customer service for inquiries about membership activities and specific benefits, indicating a focus on customer support and satisfaction [20][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX - PTA supply tightness supports the market, but the differentiated inventory structure restricts the increase [1] - The short - term industrial chain enters an oscillatory adjustment period, and the long - and short - term factors in the polyester market may restrict the upward space [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 PTA & PX - On July 29, the PX main contract closed at 6942.0 yuan/ton, up 0.75% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 97.0 yuan/ton; the PTA main contract closed at 4838.0 yuan/ton, up 0.54%, with a basis of 2.0 yuan/ton [2] - On July 30, WTI closed at 69.25 US dollars/barrel. The PX supply is under short - term tightening pressure, and PTA supply faces dual pressures of high operating rate and plant restart. Downstream polyester demand shows a marginal weakening risk, and PTA continues a slight destocking trend but the pressure remains [3] 3.1.2 Polyester - On July 29, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6500.0 yuan/ton, up 0.28%. The spot price in the East China market was 6605.0 yuan/ton, down 5.0 yuan/ton, with a basis of 105.0 yuan/ton [4] - The cost - side support of polyester is loosening, terminal procurement power is weakening, and the inventory is significantly differentiated. The short - term industrial chain is expected to enter an oscillatory adjustment period [4] 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On July 30, compared with July 29, the prices of PX, PTA, short - fiber futures and spot, and some other products changed to varying degrees, and the trading volume and open interest of futures contracts also had corresponding changes [5] - The processing spreads of various products in the industrial chain and the trading volume of the Light Textile City also showed specific data changes [6] 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Macroeconomic Dynamics - On July 30, a Fed governor was absent from the interest - rate meeting, and the number of voting members temporarily decreased to 11. The "Fed whisperer" said the Fed would eventually need to continue cutting interest rates but was not ready to do so this week [7] - On July 29, Trump thought the Fed must cut interest rates this week [7] 3.3.2 Supply - Demand (Demand) - On July 29, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 446.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 7.85%, including 357.0 million meters of long - fiber fabric trading volume and 87.0 million meters of short - fiber fabric trading volume [8] 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts related to the PX, PTA, and polyester industrial chains, including futures prices, basis, spot prices, capacity utilization rates, etc [9][11][13] 3.5 Appendix: Big - Model Inference Process - The analysis is carried out from the supply, demand, and inventory sides. The supply side considers the device start - up rate and device changes of PX and PTA; the demand side focuses on the polyester operating rate and the trading volume of the Light Textile City; the inventory side pays attention to the PTA factory inventory [34][35][36] - Overall, PX may be supported by crude oil, and PTA may be supported by cost and demand. If the inventory is low, the price may rise [39]

Core Viewpoint - The methanol futures market has shown relative weakness amidst overall industrial price increases, with a significant price drop observed following a cooling market sentiment [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - Methanol futures prices fell nearly 4% on July 28 and continued to decline by 0.33% recently, indicating a bearish trend [1] - Analysts suggest that the weak performance of methanol futures is due to a lack of strong upward drivers in its fundamentals, despite macroeconomic positive sentiments [1][2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Current methanol fundamentals exhibit three high characteristics: high supply elasticity, weak demand, and high inventory levels, with port inventories up 22% year-on-year [2] - Domestic production remains high, and increased imports are expected, particularly from Iran, which may see imports rise to 381,700 tons by the end of July [2] - The demand side is weak, with traditional downstream sectors facing losses and methanol procurement intentions being low due to reduced operating rates [1][2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Short-term expectations indicate continued supply pressure and weak demand, with port inventory accumulation likely to persist, leading to price correction risks [3] - Mid-term prospects may improve as the traditional demand season approaches in September, alongside potential maintenance increases and uncertainties in imports [3] - Analysts emphasize the need to monitor import schedules and the recovery progress of downstream ethylene production facilities [3]