Core Insights - The data released by the Hunan Automobile Association indicates a significant decline in new car insurance numbers in August compared to July, with a total of 49,324 vehicles insured, representing a decrease of 40.69% for passenger cars and 40.4% for new energy vehicles [1][4][5] - Despite the overall decline, Changsha remains the dominant market in Hunan, with 22,267 new cars insured, which is a decrease of 35.23% compared to July, and 12,605 new energy vehicles, down 31.93% [4][5] - Xiaomi Auto emerged as the biggest winner in the Hunan car market for August, with its model SU7 leading the new energy vehicle segment with 622 units sold, surpassing Tesla's Model Y [5][9] Summary by Category Overall Market Performance - In August, Hunan's total new car insurance volume was 49,324 units, with new energy vehicles accounting for 24,364 units [4] - The decline in insurance numbers is attributed to changes in the "old-for-new" national subsidy policy and the seasonal sales slump typical of August [4][5] Regional Insights - Changsha's new car insurance volume of 22,267 units and new energy vehicle insurance volume of 12,605 units highlight its resilience compared to other cities in Hunan [4][5] - Other cities like Zhuzhou and Hengyang also showed notable figures, with 2,976 and 2,926 new cars insured, respectively [3][4] Brand and Model Performance - The top-selling model in the overall category was the Wuling Hongguang MINI with 1,105 units, while Xiaomi's SU7 led the new energy segment [5][6] - The performance of Xiaomi's SU7 and YU7 indicates a strong market presence, with the latter ranking third in new energy vehicle insurance [5][9] - The competitive landscape is shifting, with traditional leaders like Nissan and Tesla facing challenges from emerging brands like Xiaomi [5][6] Future Outlook - As the "Golden September and Silver October" sales season begins, it is anticipated that car manufacturers will launch significant new models, potentially altering the insurance volume rankings in September [10]

高频｜黑色系商品领跌，"金九"成色如何？ 证券研究报告 固收定期报告 / 2025.09.27 分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020003 suixp@ctsec.com 联系人 许帆 xufan@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《信用 | 反内卷后怎么看煤炭和钢铁 债？》 2025-09-25 2. 《期货｜如何参与曲线形态套利？》 2025-09-23 3. 《信用 | 加税后如何观察信用利差？》 2025-09-22 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ | 1 | 地产销售：一线城市形成支撑 4 | | --- | --- | | 2 | 投资：商品价格大多上行 7 | | 3 | 生产：开工率表现分化 9 | | 4 | 消费：出行动能偏强 10 | | 5 | 出口：SCFI 下行，BDI 上行 11 | | 6 | 物价：猪肉价格下行、菜价上行，油价上行 11 | | 7 | 风险提示 12 | | 图 1： 主要高频指标周度跟踪 4 | | --- | | 图 2： 全国及典 ...

自9月5日深圳楼市新政推出之后，市场上各类购房需求被激活，楼市热度持续回升，房企也积极推盘， 迎接即将到来的"国庆黄金周"。 就在8月，北京和上海也推出了楼市新政。以上海市场为例，中指研究院上海数据总经理张文静指出， 从成交数据来看，新政出台后首周上海新房市场立即作出反应，网签成交出现明显小高峰，单周成交量 环比增幅超过30%。随后三周市场逐步回归理性，成交量趋于平稳，但整体仍维持在较高水平。综合新 政实施首月的数据表现，新房成交总量环比上涨19%，这一数据充分说明政策在短期内对市场产生了显 著的拉动效应。不过，与去年同期相比，新房网签量仍下降2.5%，降幅较去年同期收窄33个百分点， 表明当前市场整体热度与去年同期相比仍存在一定差距，但政策带来的积极变化已经初步显现。 在中指研究院深圳分院高级分析师孙红梅看来，此次深圳楼市新政通过分区调控、成本降低、资格扩容 的组合拳，在短期内显著激活市场，非核心区域量价齐升、核心区域温和回暖。中指研究院指数研究部 总经理曹晶晶表示，市场已进入"金九"传统营销旺季，房企在核心城市有望加快推盘节奏，尤其是新规 项目入市将有效带动部分改善需求释放，市场活跃度或将迎来阶段性回升。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile upward trend, with the main contract 2511 of Shanghai lead futures being active but falling 0.41%. After digesting the Fed's interest - rate cut, Shanghai lead generally showed a volatile downward trend [7]. - On the supply side, some primary lead smelting enterprises in certain regions entered the centralized maintenance stage, causing the primary lead output to continue to decline. The raw material market is in a tight - balance state, with lead concentrate processing fees continuously decreasing and mostly sold on a pre - sale basis, increasing the cost for smelters to obtain raw materials and further restricting primary lead output. For recycled lead, affected by environmental inspections and the decline in waste battery recycling efficiency, the release of recycled lead production capacity has slowed down. There is not much inventory of waste batteries in the market, and the arrival of goods at smelters is not good. Enterprises mainly focus on fulfilling long - term orders, and the overall operating rate remains low, continuously restricting recycled lead output. However, with the repair of production profits and the increase in the quantity of imported raw materials, some enterprises have the expectation of resuming production, but it is expected to be in early October, having limited impact on next week's supply. Overall, lead supply shows a stable and rising trend [7]. - On the demand side, lead - acid batteries, as the main consumption area of lead, have relatively stable demand for automobile starting batteries. Although the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season is gradually warming up, in reality, when prices rise, spot transactions are average, and downstream enterprises are still mostly in a wait - and - see state. After large battery enterprises' procurement gradually ended this week before the National Day, small and medium - sized factories are mostly cautious and have low willingness to receive goods. However, the energy - storage demand in emerging fields shows a good trend, making up for the shortage of demand in traditional fields to a certain extent. But overall, the overall demand has not shown an obvious explosive growth and is still in a slow recovery stage [7]. - From the domestic and foreign inventory data, both foreign and domestic lead inventories are falling, and the number of warehouse receipts is also decreasing. The overall inventory decline indicates that demand has driven inventory depletion to a certain extent. The social inventory of domestic lead ingots has declined recently, providing some support for lead prices. However, as the pre - National Day inventory replenishment by downstream enterprises comes to an end, if demand cannot continue to follow up, the subsequent changes in inventory still need to be concerned [7]. - Next week, the Shanghai lead futures market is expected to maintain a high - level volatile pattern. On the supply side, the output of primary lead and recycled lead is difficult to rebound significantly in the short term, providing some support for prices. On the demand side, although the overall performance is average, it will not decline significantly under the background of "Golden September and Silver October" and the drive of emerging energy - storage field demand. The decline in inventory also provides some bottom - line support for prices. It is recommended to build long positions on dips for lead prices [7]. - In terms of operation, it is recommended that the main contract 2511 of Shanghai lead mainly fluctuates upward, with a fluctuation range of 16,800 - 17,300 and a stop - loss range of 16,600 - 17,400. Pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile upward trend, and the main contract 2511 of Shanghai lead futures fell 0.41%. After digesting the Fed's interest - rate cut, Shanghai lead generally showed a volatile downward trend [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply is showing a stable and rising trend, while demand is in a slow recovery stage. The overall inventory decline provides some support for lead prices. Next week, the Shanghai lead futures market is expected to maintain a high - level volatile pattern, and it is recommended to build long positions on dips [7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract 2511 of Shanghai lead mainly fluctuates upward, with a fluctuation range of 16,800 - 17,300 and a stop - loss range of 16,600 - 17,400. Pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Comparison**: This week, the domestic futures price of Shanghai lead decreased slightly compared with last week, the foreign futures price remained flat, and the ratio increased. As of September 25, 2025, the futures closing price (electronic disk) of LME 3 - month lead was reported at $1,938 per ton, and the futures closing price (active contract) of lead was reported at 17,060 yuan per ton. The Shanghai - London ratio of lead was reported at 8.71 [9][13]. - **Premium and Discount**: The domestic futures premium and discount strengthened, and the foreign premium and discount strengthened. As of September 25, 2025, the Chinese futures premium and discount was reported at - 110 yuan per ton, and the LME lead premium and discount (0 - 3) was reported at - 36.8 dollars per ton [15][17]. - **Inventory**: Both foreign and domestic lead inventories are falling, and the number of warehouse receipts is also decreasing. As of September 25, 2025, the total inventory of lead was reported at 4.22 tons, a decrease of 17,400 tons; the total inventory of LME lead was reported at 219,550 tons, a decrease of 750 tons. The number of warehouse receipts for Shanghai lead was reported at 35,584 tons, a decrease of 13,791 tons [32][36]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation Supply - side - **Primary Lead**: As of September 18, 2025, the average operating rate of primary lead in major production areas was 80.56%, a decrease of 0.96% compared with last week; the weekly output of primary lead was 35,900 tons, a decrease of 0 tons compared with last week [23]. - **Recycled Lead**: As of September 18, 2025, the domestic output of recycled lead in major production areas was reported at 16,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,200 tons; the average utilization rate of recycled lead production capacity was reported at 43.63%, a month - on - month increase of 8.78%. Near the Double Festival, the recycling of scrapped batteries increased, and the output increased slightly [27][30]. - **Trade**: In August 2025, the export volume of refined lead was 1,795 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 43.62% and a year - on - year increase of 408.31%. The import volume of refined lead was 3,417 tons. The import volume of lead alloy was 12,784 tons. The import volume of lead concentrate was about 122,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 28.3%. The total import volume of lead ingots was 13,450 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,940 tons, an increase of 106.70%; a year - on - year decrease of 9,730 tons, a decrease of 41.98%. Among them, the import volume of refined lead was 3,420 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,600 tons, an increase of 317.07%; a year - on - year decrease of 10,600 tons, a decrease of 75.63%. The import volume of crude lead was 10,030 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,340 tons, an increase of 76.27%; a year - on - year increase of 1,090 tons, an increase of 12.27% [40]. Demand - side - **Processing Fees**: As of September 18, 2025, the national average processing price of lead concentrate was reported at 370 yuan per ton, and the average monthly value of the processing fee TC for imported lead concentrate (Pb60) was reported at - 90 dollars per thousand tons. The domestic lead concentrate processing fee declined, and the imported ore processing fee remained flat, which was generally negative for domestic production [43][45]. - **Automobile Market**: In August 2025, the overall automobile sales were 2.857 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 10.18% and a year - on - year increase of 16.4%. From January to August, the cumulative automobile sales reached 21.128 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 12.6%. The sales of passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and new - energy vehicles all showed growth trends. The new - energy vehicle sales in August were 1.395 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 10.54% and a year - on - year increase of 27%. The new - energy vehicle sales from January to August were 9.62 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 36.7%. The new - energy vehicle sales accounted for 48.8% of the total new automobile sales in August and 45.5% from January to August. The growth of automobile production and sales is accelerating, and the process of lithium replacing lead is accelerating, leading to a decline in lead demand [47][50]. - **Battery Market**: As of September 25, 2025, the average price of waste lead electric storage 48V/20AH in Zhejiang was reported at 394 yuan per group, and the price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2 - 4% antimony) in Shanghai was 19,920 yuan per ton. The battery price remained flat, and the price of lead - antimony alloy decreased [52][55].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously Bullish [1] - LPG: Cautiously Bearish [1] - L: Short - term Bearish with Rebound Opportunities [1] - PP: Short - term Bearish with Rebound Opportunities [1] - PVC: Low - level Volatility [1] - PX: Cautiously Bullish [1] - PTA: Cautiously Bullish [2] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Cautiously Bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously Bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Natural Gas: Cautiously Bullish [4] - Asphalt: Cautiously Bearish [4] - Glass: Short - term Bullish, Long - term Bearish [4] - Soda Ash: Short - term Bearish with Rebound Opportunities [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple energy and chemical products, considering factors such as geopolitical disturbances, supply - demand relationships, inventory levels, and cost changes. For some products, geopolitical events can cause short - term price fluctuations, while long - term trends are mainly determined by supply - demand fundamentals. For example, crude oil is affected by geopolitical events in the short term but faces long - term supply surplus pressure [1][6]. - Some products are influenced by the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season. However, the actual demand may not meet expectations, affecting their price trends. For instance, PTA and MEG have weaker demand during this period [2][34][39]. - Inventory levels play a crucial role in determining product prices. For example, high inventory levels can suppress prices, while low inventory levels can provide some support [1][11][34]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices continued to rise, with WTI down 0.02%, Brent up 0.18%, and SC up 1.37% [5]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical disturbances led to a short - term oil price rebound, and the unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories provided short - term support. However, there is a long - term supply surplus, and prices may drop to around $60 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply may increase as Iraq's Kurdish region resumes oil exports. Demand in India decreased in August. US commercial crude oil inventories decreased in the week ending September 19 [7]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [485 - 495] for SC [8]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On September 23, the PG main contract closed at 4254 yuan/ton, up 0.16% [10]. - **Basic Logic**: Weaker cost from crude oil, increased downstream chemical demand, and approaching holidays led to inventory reduction by refineries, suppressing LPG prices. High warehouse receipts also pressured the market [11]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4200 - 4300] for PG [12]. L - **Market Performance**: The L01 closing price (main contract) was 7142 yuan/ton, up 0.5% [15]. - **Basic Logic**: Short - term rebound following cost, with increased supply expected as previous maintenance devices return. Import volume is expected to rise. Demand is strengthening as the shed film season begins [17]. - **Strategy**: Try to go long on pullbacks. Focus on the range of [7100 - 7250] for L [17]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP01 closing price (main contract) was 6877 yuan/ton, up 0.5% [20]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improved, and the market rebounded. Supply pressure may ease as the upstream parking ratio is 18%. Downstream demand is entering the peak season [22]. - **Strategy**: Industries can hedge at high prices. Try to go long on pullbacks. Focus on the range of [6850 - 6950] for PP [22]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V01 closing price (main contract) was 4935 yuan/ton, up 0.3% [25]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply exceeds demand, and social inventory has increased for 14 consecutive weeks. Low prices and positive macro sentiment support the market. Pay attention to downstream replenishment before the National Day [27]. - **Strategy**: Try to go long on pullbacks. Focus on the range of [4800 - 5000] for V [27]. PX - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the PX spot price was 6773 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/ton [30]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side devices have little change, while demand from PTA is expected to weaken. The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and inventory is still relatively high [30]. - **Strategy**: Close short positions at a profit. Look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and buy call options. Focus on the range of [6585 - 6680] for PX511 [31] PTA - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the PTA spot price in East China was 4555 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/ton [33]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure may ease as device maintenance is expected to increase. The "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season is under - performing, and demand is weakening. Inventory is decreasing [34]. - **Strategy**: Close short positions at a profit. Look for short - selling opportunities at high prices and buy call options [34] MEG - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4352 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [38]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices are slightly increasing production, and overseas devices have little change. Demand is weak during the consumption season, but low inventory supports the price [39]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully. Look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. Focus on the range of [4210 - 4255] for EG01 [40] Methanol - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the methanol spot price in East China was 2299 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton [41]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic device maintenance has increased, and overseas device load has slightly declined. Demand has improved, and social inventory accumulation has slowed down. Cost support is stabilizing [42][43] - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices. Focus on the range of [2331 - 2361] for MA01 [44] Urea - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1640 yuan/ton [46]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply is relatively abundant, and demand is weak both domestically and overseas. Inventory is continuously increasing, and cost support is expected to weaken [47][48] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully. Look for long - term long - buying opportunities at low prices [2] Natural Gas - **Core View**: Cautiously Bullish. Geopolitical factors boost energy prices in the short term, and the approaching consumption season supports demand. As of September 19, US natural gas inventory increased, and cooling weather will increase demand [4] Asphalt - **Core View**: Cautiously Bearish. Weaker cost from crude oil, increased supply pressure, and demand affected by typhoons in the south. Valuation is relatively high [4] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions [4] Glass - **Core View**: Short - term Bullish, Long - term Bearish. The market is rising due to anti - competition factors. Supply is under pressure, and demand from the real estate industry is weak. Pay attention to downstream replenishment during the peak season [4] - **Strategy**: Short - term long, long - term short, or short the spread between soda ash and glass [4] Soda Ash - **Core View**: Short - term Bearish with Rebound Opportunities. Demand has improved, but the expected glass production cut may suppress demand. Supply is expected to be abundant as summer maintenance ends [4] - **Strategy**: In the medium - to long - term, short on rebounds [4]

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint The 01 contract range is expected to be between 15,000 - 16,500. Follow-up attention should be paid to the raw material output in the peak production season of the main producing areas. If the raw material output is smooth, the upper edge of the range should adopt a short - selling strategy; if the raw material output is not smooth, the rubber price is expected to continue to run within the range [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On September 25th, the price of Yunnan Guofu full - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 14,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the full - milk basis was - 820 yuan/ton, up 12.20%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber remained unchanged at 14,850 yuan/ton. The price of cup rubber in the international market increased by 0.10 Thai baht/kg, and the price of glue decreased by 0.50 Thai baht/kg [1]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread was - 15 yuan/ton, up 50.00% from the previous day; the 1 - 5 spread was 55 yuan/ton, down 26.67%; the 5 - 9 spread was - 40 yuan/ton, up 11.11% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, Thailand's production was 421,600 tons, up 1.61%; Indonesia's production was 197,500 tons, up 12.09%; India's production was 45,000 tons, down 2.17%; China's production was 101,300 tons, down 1.30%. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.58%, down 0.08%; the weekly operating rate of full - steel tires was 65.72%, up 0.06%. In August, domestic tire production was 10,295,400 tons, up 9.10%, and tire export volume was 63,010,000 pieces, down 5.46%. In July, the total import volume of natural rubber was 474,800 tons, up 2.47%. In August, the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) was 660,000 tons, up 4.76% [1]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.95%, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 3.07%. The inbound rate of dry rubber in the bonded warehouse in Qingdao increased, and the outbound rate decreased [1]. Group 2: Log Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint Currently, logs are in a volatile pattern, with a position volume of only about 12,000 lots, and the market maintains a narrow - range oscillation around 800. As the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" approach, follow - up attention should be paid to whether the shipment volume improves significantly after entering the seasonal peak season. In the current "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern, the strategy suggests seizing opportunities to go long at low prices [2]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 26th, the 2511 log contract closed at 807.5 yuan/cubic meter, up 4.5 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day. The spot price of the benchmark delivery product remained unchanged, with the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine in Shandong being 750 yuan/cubic meter and that in Jiangsu being 770 yuan/cubic meter [2]. - **Cost: Import Cost Calculation**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.119, and the import theoretical cost was 799.14 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.11 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day [2]. - **Supply**: In August, the port shipment volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 3.87%, and the number of ships decreased by 6.38%. The main port inventory in China decreased by 3.31% week - on - week [2]. - **Demand**: The average daily outbound volume decreased by 5% week - on - week, with the average daily outbound volume in Shandong decreasing by 11% and that in Jiangsu increasing by 4% [2]. Group 3: Polysilicon Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint Fundamentally, the supply - side regulation effect is less than expected, and the industry's over - capacity pattern remains unchanged. At the same time, the inventory in the downstream component segment is high, and the price has loosened. It is expected that before the National Day holiday, the polysilicon price will mainly remain range - bound, with a possible fluctuation range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to whether the national - level policies on capacity clearance and industry stockpiling will have specific schedules and implementation details, as well as the actual operating rate and production reduction implementation of polysilicon enterprises, and track the inventory digestion progress and new order demand of downstream photovoltaic component factories [3]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On September 25th, the average price of N - type re -投料 was 52,550 yuan/ton, up 0.10%; the average price of N - type granular silicon was 50,500 yuan/ton, up 2.02%; the N - type material basis (average price) was 1,185 yuan/ton, up 5.80% [3]. - **Futures Price and Inter - month Spread**: The main contract price was 21,365 yuan/ton, down 0.03%. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract decreased by 91.80%, and the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract increased by 3.34% [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly, the silicon wafer production was 13.78 GW, down 1.01%; the polysilicon production was 31,100 tons, up 0.32%. Monthly, the polysilicon production was 131,700 tons, up 23.31%; the polysilicon import volume was 100 tons, down 9.63%; the polysilicon export volume was 300 tons, up 40.12% [3]. - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory was 226,000 tons, up 10.78%; the silicon wafer inventory was 16.23 GW, down 3.79%; the polysilicon warehouse receipt was 7,880 lots, up 0.38% [3]. Group 4: Industrial Silicon Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint From a fundamental perspective, from September to October, as the supply of industrial silicon increases, the balance gradually turns to a loose state. The expectation of batch production cuts by silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan during the flat - dry water period is at the end of October, so the expected loose balance at the supply peak in October is more obvious and narrows again in November. At the same time, the cost increase during the flat - dry water period in the southwest raises the industry's average cost, bringing positive sentiment to the market. In the short term, the upward driving force of industrial silicon is insufficient, and the silicon price may turn to oscillation again, with the main price fluctuation range likely to be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm of silicon material enterprises and industrial silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan in the fourth quarter [4]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: On September 25th, the price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 52,550 yuan/ton; the price of N - type granular silicon was 50,500 yuan/ton, up 1000 yuan/ton from the previous day; the N - type material basis (average price) was 1,185 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spread between 2510 - 2511 was - 15 yuan/ton, up 50.00% from the previous day; the spread between 2511 - 2512 was - 390 yuan/ton, up 1.27%; the spread between 2512 - 2601 was 25 yuan/ton, down 28.57% [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: Monthly, the national industrial silicon production was 385,700 tons, up 14.01%; the production in Xinjiang was 169,700 tons, up 12.91%; the production in Yunnan was 58,100 tons, up 41.19%; the production in Sichuan was 53,700 tons, up 10.72%. The national operating rate was 52.61%, up 3.26% [4]. - **Inventory Change**: The inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 11.63%, the inventory in Yunnan increased by 2.91%, and the inventory in Sichuan increased by 3.06%. The social inventory remained unchanged, the contract inventory increased by 0.28%, and the non - warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.24% [4]. Group 5: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash market has continued to trade in a narrow range, influenced by news and sentiment. The fundamental oversupply problem persists. Although the manufacturer's inventory has decreased recently, the inventory has actually shifted to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory has continued to rise. The weekly production remains high, and there is still an oversupply compared to the current rigid demand. In the medium term, there is no expectation of a significant increase in downstream production capacity, so the overall demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid demand pattern. If there is no actual capacity exit or load reduction in the future, the inventory will be further pressured. The implementation of policies and the load regulation of soda ash plants can be tracked. The overall supply - demand pattern is still bearish, and short - selling positions established on rallies can be held [5]. - **Glass**: Rumors about a glass enterprise meeting have driven the market sentiment to rise significantly. The news and speculation about "calling for industry price increases" and "anti - involution" should be viewed rationally as they cannot be confirmed for now. The glass market has seen a significant increase in positions and prices in the past two days due to news - driven factors. The sharp rebound in the glass market has led to an increase in spot prices, with some regional enterprises raising their prices by up to 100 yuan/ton, and the spot market trading has become active again, with the production - sales ratio exceeding 100%. However, the intermediate inventory in some regions remains high and shows no obvious signs of reduction. In the long - term, the real estate market is at the bottom of the cycle, and the industry needs to clear excess capacity to solve the oversupply problem. In the short - term, the sentiment - driven market has led to a temporary improvement in the spot market, and its sustainability needs to be tracked. As the National Day approaches, the pre - holiday macro sentiment is positive, and the glass industry does not have the driving force for continuous negative feedback for now, so excessive short - selling is not recommended. After the holiday, the actual implementation of policies in various regions and the inventory replenishment performance of the middle and lower reaches during the "Golden September and Silver October" period need to be tracked [5]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices in North China, East China, Central China, and South China increased by 4.31%, 4.88%, 4.35%, and 4.80% respectively. The prices of glass 2505 and glass 2509 increased by 1.99% and 1.54% respectively [5]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The prices of soda ash 2505 and soda ash 2509 increased by 0.72% and 0.79% respectively [5]. - **Supply**: The operating rate of soda ash decreased by 2.02%, the weekly production of soda ash decreased by 2.02%, the daily melting volume of float glass decreased by 0.47%, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [5]. - **Inventory**: The glass inventory decreased by 1.10%, the soda ash factory inventory decreased by 2.33%, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 10.69% [5]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rates of new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area were - 0.09%, 0.05%, - 0.22%, and - 6.55% respectively [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core Views - The view on finished products is that they will run in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center moving down and running weakly [1][3] - The view on aluminum ingots is that they are expected to maintain a high - level operation in the short term, with prices supported by pre - holiday stocking [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, with an estimated impact of 741,000 tons on building steel production. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills will stop production, with a daily impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% week - on - week decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [3] - Finished product prices hit a new low recently, with a pessimistic market sentiment in the context of weak supply and demand. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support [3] Aluminum - The supply of the aluminum market has a small increase due to the climbing of replacement capacity, and the supply - demand pattern is improving marginally. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 63.0% [3] - The aluminum cable sector is the main driving force, with the operating rate rising by 1.8 percentage points to 67%. The operating rates of primary aluminum alloy and aluminum plate and strip sectors increased by 1% and 0.8% respectively. The aluminum profile operating rate remained flat at 54.60%, and the aluminum foil industry has limited upward momentum [3] - On September 25, the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 617,000 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons compared with Monday and last Thursday. Short - term downstream purchasing increased, and the spot premium was firm [3] - In the medium - term, aluminum consumption is generally warming up, with stable growth in the automotive industry, growth expectations in the power industry, and marginal improvement in the construction industry [3]

智通财经APP获悉，9月26日，中指研究院发文称，2025年8月25日，上海出台新一轮房地产市场调控政策，这一 被业内称为"8.25新政"的举措引发市场广泛关注。上海"8.25"楼市新政实施满月以来，政策效果已经初步显现。 新房市场短期成交量明显回升，外环外区域受政策影响数据体现明显;二手房市场在预期博弈中有所修复，外环 外交易活跃度提升明显。这些变化表明，政策在一定程度上提振了市场信心，促进了合理住房需求的释放， 为"金九银十"的购房消费注入了强心剂，奠定了市场回暖的坚实基础。 新房市场：政策短期利好效果凸显，外环外区域销售受益明显 从成交数据来看，新政出台后首周，上海新房市场立即作出反应，网签成交出现明显小高峰，单周成交量环比增 幅超过30%。随后三周市场逐步回归理性，成交量趋于平稳，但整体仍维持在较高水平。综合新政实施首月的数 据表现，新房成交总量环比上涨19%，这一数据充分说明政策在短期内对市场产生了显著的拉动效应。不过，与 去年同期相比，新房网签量仍下降2.5%，降幅较去年同期收窄33个百分点，表明当前市场整体热度与去年同期 相比仍存在一定差距，但政策带来的积极变化已经初步显现。 注：新房统计不含保 ...

进入 9 月份后，钢铁行业的表观消费量有所回升，主要是由于建筑需求的回暖。 7 月和 8 月是传统淡季，高温多雨天气抑制了施工强度，而 9 月份天气转凉， 开工率有所提升，带动了建材需求的好转。然而，从同比角度来看，今年建筑 需求与去年基本持平。制造业方面，板材在 6 月至 8 月间同比增速约为 5%， 主要受抢出口因素影响，包括机械制品、汽车和家电等下游产品表现超乎寻常。 部分钢铁企业可能因亏损超过现金流成本而自发减产，这将导致产业链 形成负反馈，进而对铁矿石和焦煤价格产生压力。钢铁行业的盈利情况 值得关注。 钢厂通常在春节前后进行冬储备煤。目前 247 家钢厂焦煤库存约 800 万吨，高于 2023 年和 2024 年水平。预计今年年底前不会有特别大的 补库动作，但明年春节前可能会有补库需求。 假设铁矿石价格不变，钢企每吨钢材盈利减少 200 元，对应每吨消耗 0.55-0.6 吨焦煤，其成本涨幅约为 350-400 元（不含税），这意味着 焦煤仍有 350-400 元的涨价空间。 目前国企、央企已开始执行减产，但民营企业未严格执行，因此总体效 果不明显。预计限产政策将在 11 月或之后落实并进行督查，这 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年9月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘大幅回落，价格回到20均线以下运行。产业链上，镍矿价格坚挺，海运费受煤炭价格 上升也稳中有升。镍铁价格继续小幅上涨，成本线进一步上移，但总体镍铁企业仍然亏损。不锈钢库存 继续回落，金九银十去库存良好。新能源汽车产销数据良好，三元电池装车仍然呈现下降，对镍需求提 升有限。中长线过剩格局不变。偏空 2、基差：现货124050，基差1060，偏多 3、库存：LME库存230586，0，上交所仓单25105，+134，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以上，20均线向上，偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2511：20均线上下震荡运行。 不锈钢 每日观点 1、基本面：现 ...