Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Insights - In September 2025, the Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[7] - The production index reached a six-month high at 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points, indicating active manufacturing activities[13] - New orders index was at 49.7%, showing a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points but still in the contraction zone[13] Group 2: Raw Materials and Pricing - The main raw materials purchasing price index decreased slightly to 53.2%, down 0.1 percentage points, while the factory price index fell to 48.2%, down 0.9 percentage points[19] - The procurement volume index rose to 51.6%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points, indicating accelerated raw material purchases[21] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The services business activity index fell to 50.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points, with notable sector differentiation[22] - The construction business activity index was at 49.3%, a marginal increase of 0.2 percentage points, but still below the critical point[26] Group 4: Economic Policy and Risks - The government announced a new policy financial tool worth 500 billion yuan to support project capital, aimed at boosting infrastructure activities[27] - Real estate demand remains weak, posing a risk to overall economic recovery[28]

Report Title - The outlook for the steel market in the fourth quarter of 2025 by Nanhua Futures: A glimmer of hope but lacking momentum [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to show a volatile trend with a ceiling and a floor. The upper pressure comes from the current supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals and unclear supply - demand adjustment policies, while the lower support is due to the continuous resilience of export demand and the expectation of supply contraction [3]. - The fourth - quarter demand performance is crucial. If demand recovers, the high - supply pattern may continue and drive up prices; if demand remains weak, the risk of oversupply will intensify [7]. - The market is highly concerned about the implementation and enforcement of supply - side policies, especially the "anti - involution" policy [8]. - Although the market has not triggered large - scale negative feedback, the squeezed profit margin has sent a warning signal [9]. Summary by Directory 2. Third - quarter Market Review - In July, driven by the expectation of the "anti - involution" policy and the supply contraction caused by coal mine over - production inspections, the steel market rose. The low inventory at all links in the industry chain led to a bottom - up replenishment and increased speculative demand, resulting in a cost - driven price increase [4]. - In August, after the Politburo meeting in late July did not immediately introduce clear "anti - involution" implementation details, market optimism declined. The trading logic returned to fundamentals. High supply and weak demand led to over - seasonal inventory accumulation and price decline, showing signs of negative feedback [5]. - In September, the price premium from the "anti - involution" expectation was basically digested. The market refocused on macro factors. The cost support limited the downward space, and the market entered a volatile consolidation stage [5]. 3. Core Concerns 3.1 Fourth - quarter Demand Acceptance Capacity - Steel apparent consumption has been stable this year, but recent weak demand has led to inverse - seasonal inventory accumulation. Fourth - quarter demand is crucial for the balance of supply and demand [7]. 3.2 Impact of Supply - side Policies - The market is highly concerned about the implementation and enforcement of supply - side policies, especially the "anti - involution" policy and its potential impact on the steel supply structure and market expectations [8]. 3.3 Whether Negative Feedback Production Cuts Will Be Triggered - The squeezed profit margin has sent a warning signal. The market is closely watching whether negative feedback will form and lead to active production cuts by steel mills [9]. 4. Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 4.1 Valuation Feedback - The recent strengthening of the basis reflects the market's pessimistic expectation of future supply and demand, but it is still in a neutral range in the long - term and seasonal perspective [10]. - The current core contradiction is the over - seasonal inventory accumulation caused by high supply and weak demand. The profit margin is in a neutral - high range, and there is still room for further compression [10]. - The current 01 contract coil - to - rebar spread is above the normal cost difference range. Although it is reasonable based on fundamentals, it is at a high level and showing a weakening trend, indicating a potential downward adjustment in steel valuation [11]. 4.2 Steel Demand Outlook 4.2.1 Real Estate: Yet to Stabilize - The real estate market showed a short - term recovery last year, but sales and prices have weakened again this year. The real estate end's steel consumption, mainly in new construction and construction, is still weak due to factors such as low developer investment willingness and high inventory [16][20]. 4.2.2 Infrastructure: Tight Capital in the Debt - Resolution Context - In 2025, the growth rate of infrastructure investment has slowed down. The power, water, transportation, and water conservancy sectors have all weakened. The current debt - resolution and "anti - involution" policies have restricted investment. The slow issuance of special bonds and the focus on debt - resolution and land acquisition have led to tight infrastructure funds, and the physical workload in the fourth quarter is expected to be low [23][28]. 4.2.3 Manufacturing: Domestic Demand Weakening, External Demand Resilient - Domestic manufacturing demand has shown a "strong - then - weak" trend this year. The "anti - involution" policy and the weakening effect of previous policies have led to a slowdown in domestic demand. However, external demand is expected to remain resilient due to China's product cost - effectiveness and the stable overseas demand environment [36][40]. 4.2.4 Direct Steel Exports: Demand Increment and Cost Substitution - From January to August, China's steel and billet exports increased significantly. The growth is mainly due to overseas demand expansion and cost substitution. However, there are risks such as export inspections and anti - dumping investigations in the future [43]. 4.2.5 Summary of the Fourth - quarter Demand Outlook in 2025 - From January to September, the overall demand showed some resilience, but there may be speculative demand in the third - quarter. In the fourth quarter, demand growth momentum is expected to weaken. Real estate demand will remain under pressure, infrastructure demand will be weak, domestic manufacturing demand will decline, and direct steel exports may slow down [57][59]. 4.3 Supply and Inventory 4.3.1 Supply Overview: Deviation between Third - Party and Statistical Data - As of September 18, the daily average pig iron output and scrap consumption increased compared to last year according to third - party data, but the statistical data shows a decrease in crude steel production. There is a deviation between the two [61]. 4.3.2 How to View the "Anti - Involution" in the Steel Industry? - The market has not achieved the rumored annual crude steel production reduction target. The "anti - involution" policy has not had a significant impact. Steel mills have high production enthusiasm due to good profits. The policy may be included in the "14th Five - Year Plan" for industry governance, but in the short term, steel supply will remain elastic [64][65]. 4.3.3 Whether Negative Feedback Production Cuts Are Needed? - Steel mills still have some profit margins and limited motivation for self - initiated production cuts. If demand remains weak and supply stays high, the market may enter a negative - feedback adjustment stage. The raw material cost support limits the downward space of steel prices [67][78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The ferroalloy price in the third quarter was mainly affected by the coking coal price showing a volatile trend after a rapid increase. In the fourth quarter, the ferroalloy futures are expected to be volatile, with the price at the stage when the "anti - involution" was proposed at the beginning of July regarded as the policy bottom and the high price at the end of July as the resistance level. The downstream products like rebar are the core variables affecting the ferroalloy price, and coking coal affects its cost. Ferroalloy mainly follows their prices but with lower elasticity. Policy expectations will dominate the rhythm, the fundamentals of coking coal and ferroalloy will determine the direction and space, and market sentiment may amplify short - term fluctuations. If the ferroalloy production remains at a medium - high level, the supply - demand pressure will rise and the effectiveness of cost support may be challenged when the downstream enters the off - season or the peak season fails to meet expectations [1][4]. - The price range of the Si - Fe 2601 contract is predicted to be between 5300 - 6400, and that of the Si - Mn 2601 contract between 5500 - 6500. The supply - demand of ferroalloy is relatively loose but easily affected by the anti - involution policy. Buying when the price reaches the level at the beginning of July has a high cost - performance ratio and safety margin, i.e., around 5300 for the Si - Fe 2601 contract and around 5500 for the Si - Mn 2601 contract [1]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Chapter 2: Market Review - In the third quarter, the ferroalloy price was mainly affected by the coking coal price. In July, driven by macro - sentiment and the "anti - involution" policy expectation, coking coal rose rapidly, leading the rise of the entire black sector, and ferroalloy followed the price increase of coking coal and rebar. In August, due to the exchange's policy of restricting positions and raising handling fees for coking coal futures and the increase in production stimulated by the profit recovery of ferroalloy in July while the downstream demand was less than expected, the increase of ferroalloy gradually declined with a larger decline than the finished products. In September, supported by the steel mills' restocking of coke, ferroalloy rebounded slightly due to cost support (the increase in the prices of semi - coke and manganese ore), but the downstream consumption remained weak, and ferroalloy showed a narrow - range volatile trend [2]. - In 2025, the price of Si - Fe futures had a strong negative correlation with its total position. In most cases, the increase in price was accompanied by a decrease in position, and vice versa, which may be related to the participation of hedging funds. The price of Si - Mn futures had a strong positive correlation and a characteristic of periodic divergence with its total position, i.e., in most cases, the increase in position was accompanied by a price rebound, and vice versa, which may be related to the participation of speculative funds [2]. 3.2 Chapter 3: Core Focus Points 3.2.1 Anti - Involution Policy Expectation - In the third quarter, the main factors affecting the ferroalloy price were the anti - involution policy expectation and market sentiment. The anti - involution started in July, but it mainly affected the photovoltaic sector at first. After July 18, relevant policies gradually began to affect the black sector, especially coking coal, which had multiple daily limit up. Ferroalloy also rose rapidly under the drive of coking coal but with a smaller increase. On July 25, after the news that large manganese - based ferroalloy producers reached a consensus on a 30% reduction in ferromanganese and a 40% reduction in Si - Mn production was spread, ferroalloy hit the daily limit and reached the peak of this round of market [15]. - In the fourth quarter, the price fluctuation of ferroalloy futures will be dominated by policy expectations in terms of rhythm, and the fundamentals of coking coal and ferroalloy will determine the direction and space. Policies mainly affect the market by changing industry expectations, and market sentiment may amplify short - term fluctuations [15]. 3.2.2 Downstream Steel Mill Demand Rhythm Realization - In the first three quarters of this year, the hot metal production has been maintained at a high level, with only a short - term decline in late September due to the military parade and then returning to normal. The high - level hot metal production is mainly due to the strong export demand in the first half of the year. From January to August 2025, the net export of steel products was 73.54 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.29%, and the net export of billets was 8.65 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 975%. Another reason is the high profit of steel mills, which is supported by strong exports and the price reduction of coking coal and iron ore in the first half of the year. However, since the third quarter, the cost has rebounded, and the profit of steel mills has gradually declined, which poses a challenge to maintaining high - level hot metal production [16]. - In the fourth quarter, the "Golden September and Silver October" is the peak demand season in China, but the demand for the five major steel products has been weak, with the apparent consumption remaining at the lowest level in the same period in the past five years and the production also at a low level. Since August, the production of the five major steel products has been significantly higher than that of last year, but the apparent consumption has not increased synchronously and is still lower than that of last year, resulting in inventory accumulation instead of the seasonal inventory reduction in the peak season [16]. - In the fourth quarter, it is necessary to pay attention to the realization of the downstream steel mill demand rhythm. If the construction rush in the fourth quarter fails to meet expectations, the inventory accumulation of steel mills will suppress the price rebound space, and the off - season may come earlier. If the winter storage is postponed, the situation of "no peak season in the peak season and no off - season in the off - season" may occur, leading to a price rhythm contrary to expectations [17]. 3.2.3 Effectiveness of Cost Support - Since July, the raw material prices of the ferroalloy cost side have changed. The electricity price has been relatively stable, but the price of semi - coke has risen, increasing the production cost of Si - Fe by about 300 yuan/ton from the bottom and providing some support for the Si - Fe price. For Si - Mn, supported by the high operating rate of downstream factories, the manganese ore price has risen slightly, and the chemical coke price has also increased under the drive of coking coal, moving the cost center of Si - Mn upward and providing some support for the Si - Mn price [24]. - In the long run, the production area of Si - Mn is concentrating in the northern regions with low electricity prices, new production capacity is constantly being released, and affected by factors such as the decline of the real estate market, the effectiveness of the cost support for Si - Mn may gradually weaken. The cost support of Si - Mn is affected not only by its own over - capacity but also by manganese ore, and its price elasticity basically depends on event - driven factors. In the short term, the supply pattern of manganese ore is relatively loose, the manganese ore price maintains a low - level volatile trend, and the market pricing may be anchored to the Inner Mongolia production area with the lowest cost [25]. - In the short term, before the National Day, the cost support of ferroalloy is relatively strong due to the release of raw material restocking demand. But in the medium - to - long term, if the ferroalloy production remains at a medium - high level, when the downstream enters the off - season or the peak season fails to meet expectations, the supply - demand pressure will rise, and the effectiveness of cost support may be challenged [25]. 3.2.4 Short - Term Disturbance at the Manganese Ore Shipping End - From January to August 2025, the cumulative import of manganese ore was 20.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.59%, and the cumulative shipping volume was 25.51 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.91%. The main reason is that the Australian manganese ore has gradually resumed production this year after the shutdown last year, and the supply of manganese ore is relatively sufficient with the price maintaining a low - level volatile trend. The spread between semi - coke and manganese ore has gradually widened, and the cost - performance ratio of going long on the spread between the two types of ferroalloys is relatively high [29]. - Although the supply of manganese ore is sufficient, it is necessary to pay attention to short - term disturbances. There are rumors that the shipping volume of Gabonese manganese ore will decrease in October, but it has not been confirmed. Currently, the inventory of manganese ore at ports is low, and the market is likely to hype if there are disturbances at the shipping end [29]. 3.3 Chapter 4: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 3.3.1 Ferroalloy Valuation - Currently, the valuation of ferroalloy is relatively neutral and on the low side. In the short term, it is supported by the downstream restocking demand, but in the medium - to - long term, attention should be paid to the inventory pressure after the demand declines. The profit of ferroalloy has been continuously declining. The production of Si - Fe remains at a high level, and there is not much motivation for Si - Fe enterprises to increase production. The production of Si - Mn enterprises has begun to decline as the southern production areas enter the dry season. If the downstream demand fails to meet expectations and the inventory pressure increases, it will put pressure on the ferroalloy price, and the enterprise inventory and warehouse receipt inventory are not low at present [45]. 3.3.2 Ferroalloy Supply - Side Outlook - From January to August 2025, the cumulative production of Si - Mn was 6.62 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%, and the cumulative production of Si - Fe was 3.58 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. Looking forward to the fourth quarter, according to the seasonal law, there is an expectation of an increase in production due to the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, but the continuous decline of the alloy production profit does not support the further increase of ferroalloy production. Instead, the possibility of producers reducing production is increasing. With the arrival of the normal water season, the production in the southern Si - Mn production areas may also decline. Especially, the production profit of Si - Fe has declined significantly, and there is a greater motivation to reduce production, with the production expected to decline slightly. The production profit of Si - Mn is relatively stable, and the production is expected to remain stable or decline following the Si - Fe production but with a smaller decline. It is expected that the ferroalloy production in the fourth quarter will decline slightly compared with the third quarter [50]. 3.3.3 Ferroalloy Demand - Side Outlook - From January to August 2025, the cumulative crude steel production in China was 671.81 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%, the cumulative production of the five major steel products was 295.31 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6%, and the cumulative production of rebar was 73.52 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%. Looking forward to the fourth quarter, according to the seasonal law, there is an expectation of an increase in demand due to the peak season, but currently, the profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils are declining, mainly because the inventory of the five major steel products is accumulating, while in previous years, the inventory should have decreased in the peak season. The inventory - to - sales ratio of the five major steel products has also increased seasonally, and the current warehouse receipt inventory of rebar is at the highest level in the same period in the past five years, which restricts the increase in demand for upstream ferroalloy [55]. - The hot metal production remains at a high - level volatile state, but the profitability of steel enterprises shows a downward trend, and it is difficult to maintain a high - level hot metal production for a long time, so the steel - making demand for ferroalloy may decline. In terms of non - steel - making demand, the decline of the Si - Fe export profit is expected to affect the Si - Fe export volume. In general, it is difficult for the ferroalloy demand to increase in the fourth quarter, and the demand is expected to remain weak [55]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloy Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheets of Si - Fe and Si - Mn from January 2024 to December 2025 are provided, including production, import, export, apparent consumption, inventory, and supply - demand difference, showing the changes in the supply - demand situation of ferroalloy over time [70].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q3 2025, the A-share market broke through the shock pattern and continued to rise. The external environment remains complex in Q4. The US tariff pressure on China persists, and the "rush to export" trend is unsustainable, putting pressure on the current account. However, the weakening of the US dollar eases the pressure on the RMB's passive depreciation, and the capital account is expected to continue to recover. Domestically, the conversion of expectations into reality is evident, but the continuous effect of the "anti-involution" policy on deflation still requires demand-side support, and the recovery of corporate profits is not yet stable. Policy and monetary effects will take time to be transmitted to the PPI, which is expected to turn positive in mid-2026, bringing about a resonance of profit and valuation in the stock index market. The index's range-bound pattern may continue, and the previous long IF and short IM hedging portfolio is recommended to be held. Allocation investors need to control their stock index positions, and long-term investors should focus on the progress of profit repair and policy effects [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Indexes Break Through the Shock Pattern - **Market Review**: In Q1, the A-share market continued the shock pattern since Q4 2024. After being affected by Trump's "reciprocal tariff" remarks in April, the market recovered with the implementation of domestic policies and the easing of Sino-US trade frictions. In Q3, multiple positive factors supported the market, including the "anti-involution" policy, the continuation of the "rush to export" trend, the appreciation of the RMB, and the narrowing of the Sino-US interest rate spread, providing sufficient liquidity for the stock index market [9]. - **Industry Performance**: In the first three quarters of 2025, industries showed significant differentiation. Precious metals and related non-ferrous metals led the gains due to Trump's tariff policy, the Middle East situation, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. As of September 26, communication, non-ferrous metals, and electronics had the highest increases, while coal, food and beverage, and petroleum and petrochemicals had the largest declines [11]. - **Stock Index Basis**: The expansion of neutral strategies and the increase in the index dividend rate led to a larger discount in stock index futures. The injection of rescue funds and the active trading sentiment increased the trading volume of the A-share market, and the small and medium-cap style was dominant. The expansion of neutral strategies increased the hedging demand for stock index futures, and the high dividend rate of listed companies also contributed to the larger discount [13][17]. 2. Market Valuation: Focus on Earnings-Driven Valuation Digestion - **CSI 500 and CSI 1000 Indexes**: The valuation levels of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes have been significantly repaired. As of September 26, their price-to-book ratios were at historically low levels in the past 10 years [22]. - **SSE 50 and CSI 300 Indexes**: There is a divergence in the valuations of the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indexes. Their price-to-earnings ratios are generally in the high historical range, while the price-to-book ratios are relatively low. This difference is due to the significant valuation recovery since September last year, but the improvement in market profitability still takes time [22]. - **Index Crowding**: There is a potential for short-term style rebalancing. The crowding degree of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes has narrowed, and the market's enthusiasm for the CSI 500 index remains high. The relative valuation of the CSI 1000 index has further recovered. The crowding degree difference between the CSI 1000 and CSI 300 indexes has reached a high level in the past two years, increasing the potential for mean reversion [26][29][32]. - **Stock-Bond Cost-Effectiveness**: The stock market does not have an obvious relative advantage. After the continuous rise since September last year, the stock market is at a low level in terms of the stock-bond cost-effectiveness indicator. Although the domestic interest rate cut window is opening, the relative valuation of the stock market compared to the bond market is still at a relatively high level [35]. - **Valuation Summary**: After the continuous repair of the A-share market valuation this year, the relative valuation advantage of the stock index market over bonds has weakened, and the current stock-bond cost-effectiveness is still at a low level. There is a differentiation pattern within the market, and the valuation repair is faster than the profit recovery. Attention should be paid to the subsequent profit repair to drive the convergence of indicators. The CSI 1000 index may experience a style rebalancing [37]. 3. The Effect of Transforming Domestic Expectations into Reality is Evident - **Improvement in Financial Transmission Efficiency and the Need for Further Policy Release**: In August 2025, the "gap" between M2 and M1 growth rates narrowed, indicating an improvement in the capital activity and efficiency of enterprises. However, the structure of social financing shows that the endogenous economic momentum is still insufficient, and policies need to be continuously strengthened in Q4. The growth rate of social financing stock slowed down for the first time this year, mainly due to the high base last year, the decrease in government bond financing, and the weak demand for entity financing [38]. - **The "Anti-Involution" Policy Improves Deflation Expectations, but Profit Recovery Still Depends on Demand-Side Support**: The "anti-involution" policy proposed in early July is an important driving force for the stock market, but the policy's effectiveness takes time. The net profit of the four major index component stocks and the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size are still at the bottoming stage. The price level is still weak, and the recovery of demand is insufficient. The scissors gap between the purchase price index and the ex-factory price index squeezes corporate profit margins. The PPI is expected to turn positive around Q2 2026 [41][46]. 4. Signs of Asset Allocation Transfer Appear, and the Pressure on the Capital Account May Continue to Ease - **Initial Signs of Asset Allocation Transfer**: After the loan prime rate (LPR) was lowered in May, commercial banks lowered deposit rates, and some banks' one-year fixed deposit rates fell below 1%. The increase in listed companies' dividends and the entry of rescue funds are changing the asset allocation behavior of residents. Funds are flowing from traditional bank deposits to non-bank financial institutions, and the A-share market is expected to receive sufficient allocation funds [50][53]. - **The Change in the Dominant Factor of the US Dollar and the Easing of Pressure on the Capital and Financial Account**: The US dollar's traditional safe-haven asset status is fading, and its price is now more influenced by interest rates. The continuous expansion of the US debt and geopolitical conflicts have eroded the US dollar's credit foundation, leading to a weakening trend. The weakening of the US dollar supports the RMB, and the capital and financial account is expected to recover [55][57]. - **The Unsustainable "Rush to Export" Trend and the Pressure on the Current Account**: During the Sino-US trade negotiations, the "rush to export" trend was obvious, supporting economic growth in the first three quarters. However, due to the high tariffs on Chinese exports and the passage of the "Big and Beautiful Act" in the US, the "rush to export" trend is difficult to sustain, and the current account will face significant pressure in Q4 [59][64]. 5. Summary - The US's tariff measures against China have limited room for adjustment, and the "rush to export" trend is difficult to sustain, putting more pressure on China's current account in Q4. However, the weakening of the US dollar eases the pressure on the RMB's passive depreciation, and cross-border capital flows are expected to continue to recover. Domestically, although the financial system's transmission efficiency has improved and the "anti-involution" policy may marginally improve deflation in Q4, the price increase still depends on demand-side support, and the deflation risk has not been completely eliminated. After the valuation repair of the A-share market, the relative attractiveness of equity assets has weakened. The profit recovery is the key to whether the market's overall center can rise. The PPI is expected to turn positive in mid-2026, bringing about a resonance of profit and valuation in the stock index market. The style may rebalance, and the previous hedging portfolio is recommended to be held, while investors should control their positions and focus on profit recovery [65][67].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, the economic fundamentals are relatively cold. To achieve the economic growth target, policies in the fourth quarter still need to be strengthened. The newly announced 500 billion in new policy - based financial instruments may have various sources of funds, and there is still a certain probability of releasing the debt space limit. The "anti - involution" policy has had an impact on PPI and industrial enterprise profits, but the subsequent recovery process remains tortuous [1][10][13]. - Abroad, the Fed's interest rate cut in September can be regarded as a preventive one. There is a significant divergence between the Fed and the market next year. The controversy over the Fed's independence will continue in October, and the US Supreme Court will start reviewing the legality of some tariffs in November. The US government faces a shutdown risk on October 1st, which may affect economic data release and market sentiment [2][22][27]. - In terms of major asset trends, stocks will mainly fluctuate, and it is advisable to go long on dips; bonds have weak sentiment; the exchange rate will fluctuate within a range; and for gold, it is advisable to take a long - biased approach [3][28][30]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic: A New Round of Support Policies is Coming (1) The expectation of stable - growth policies resurfaces - The economic data in August was generally cold, with consumption weakening, production sluggish, and investment under pressure. To achieve the economic growth target, new stable - growth policies are necessary. The new policies may focus on debt limits and policy - based banks. The 500 billion in new policy - based financial instruments will be used to supplement project capital and support private enterprises' participation in the "Artificial Intelligence +" action [10][13]. (2) Has the "anti - involution" policy taken effect? - The "anti - involution" policy did not boost the "troika" of the economy but had an impact on PPI and industrial enterprise profits. In August, the year - on - year growth rate of PPI increased from - 3.6% in July to - 2.9%, and the year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits soared from - 1.5% in July to 20.4%. However, the recovery of PPI and industrial enterprise profits is also due to the low base last year [17][18]. Abroad: There is a Significant Divergence between the Fed and the Market Next Year - The Fed's interest rate cut in September was a preventive one. There is a difference between the Fed's and the market's expectations for the federal funds target rate next year. If the Fed remains data - dependent, the market's pricing may be incorrect, but the upcoming change of the Fed chairman adds uncertainty. The controversy over the Fed's independence will continue in October, and the US Supreme Court will review the legality of some tariffs in November. The US government faces a shutdown risk on October 1st, which may affect economic data release and market sentiment [21][23][27]. Major Asset Trends Outlook (1) Stocks: Mainly fluctuate, and it is advisable to go long on dips - Since September, the strong upward trend of the equity market has been curbed, and the Shanghai Composite Index has generally fluctuated. The growth style leads, and the market risk appetite will be maintained due to new policy tools and the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee. The general direction of the stock market is still upward, but the market may fluctuate in the short term [28]. (2) Bonds: Weak sentiment - The bond market continued to adjust in September. Factors such as the draft for soliciting opinions on fund fees, possible over - expected fiscal policies, and potential redemption pressure on the liability side of funds have suppressed the bond market. Although the overall view is bullish, short - term caution is needed [30]. (3) The RMB exchange rate will remain volatile - Since September, the domestic supporting factors for the RMB exchange rate have weakened, but the support from the current account and the capital account still exists. The US dollar index is the core variable. After the Fed's interest rate cut in September, the US dollar index rebounded slightly, but in the long run, it is in a downward channel, and the RMB is still in an appreciation trend [34]. (4) Gold: It is advisable to take a long - biased approach - Gold showed strong performance in September. The Fed's interest rate cut, along with geopolitical issues, the controversy over the Fed's independence, and fiscal issues in various countries, supported the gold price. It is recommended to allocate 15 - 20% of the position to go long on gold [38].

Group 1: PMI Overview - In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up from 49.4% in the previous month[2] - The non-manufacturing PMI stood at 50.0%, slightly down from 50.3%[2] - The manufacturing PMI's increase aligns with seasonal trends, with a month-on-month rise of 0.4 percentage points (pct) compared to the previous value[2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The production index rose to 51.9% (+1.1pct), indicating stronger supply than demand[2] - The new orders index increased to 49.7% (+0.2pct), while the new export orders index was at 47.8% (+0.6pct), showing resilience in external demand[2] - Overall, the supply-demand balance remains skewed towards supply exceeding demand[2] Group 3: Price Index Trends - The price index declined after three consecutive increases, with the main raw material purchase price index at 53.2% (-0.1pct) and the factory price index at 48.2% (-0.9pct)[2] - This reflects a weakening impact of "anti-involution" policies on upstream raw material prices, shifting focus to the actual implementation of policies[2] Group 4: Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing PMI rose to 51.9% (+1.4pct), marking the highest point since March[2] - The consumer goods sector PMI increased to 50.6% (+1.4pct), driven by seasonal demand ahead of the upcoming holidays[2] - The high-energy-consuming industries PMI fell to 47.5% (-0.7pct), consistent with previous price index trends[2] Group 5: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.3pct to 50.0%, slightly below the five-year average[2] - In the service sector, travel-related consumption saw a seasonal decline, while financial services maintained high activity levels[2] - The construction PMI was at 49.3% (+0.2pct), with weather conditions impacting project initiation[2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Coke**: As of the week ending September 26, the combined daily coke output of independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1127,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 5900 tons. The profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 34 yuan/ton, with losses widening by 17 yuan/ton, suppressing coking enterprises' production enthusiasm. The daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills nationwide was 2,423,600 tons, a weekly increase of 13,400 tons. This week, coke inventory shifted downstream. The inventory of independent coking plants and ports decreased, while the inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 166,400 tons to 6,613,100 tons, and the total industrial chain coke inventory increased by 52,300 tons to 9,204,100 tons. Overall, the coke fundamentals have limited drivers, policy uncertainty decreases, market waiting - and - seeing sentiment rises, and pre - holiday capital outflows lead to the weak operation of coke futures [5][32]. - **Coking Coal**: Pre - holiday risk - aversion sentiment was released. Since the night session last Friday, JM2601 has continuously reduced positions with a downward - trending price, indicating that the market is mainly characterized by long - position holders taking the initiative to exit. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of coking coal is not obvious, supply is slowly recovering, and demand is stable. The fundamentals lack support, and the recent "anti - involution" policy disturbances have eased, resulting in strong market waiting - and - seeing sentiment. As of the week ending September 26, the daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 772,000 tons, a weekly increase of 11,000 tons but 25,000 tons lower than the same period last year. At the import end, the number of Mongolian coal trucks passing through the 288 port continued to rise, approaching 8000 trucks per week. The combined daily output of sample coking plants and steel mills was 1127,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 5900 tons. Overall, the impact of previous production capacity verifications was basically realized in September, the positive "anti - involution" expectations slowed down, the actual supply of coking coal recovered marginally, and pre - holiday long - position holders' risk - aversion demand led to the oscillatory correction of the main contract. During the holiday, focus on changes in economic policy expectations and whether an increase in coal mine accidents will lead to stricter safety supervision [6][33]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - **Manufacturing PMI**: China's manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment. Large - scale enterprises' PMI was 51.0%, up 0.2 percentage points; medium - scale enterprises' PMI was 48.8%, down 0.1 percentage points; small - scale enterprises' PMI was 48.2%, up 1.6 percentage points. Among the five sub - indices of the manufacturing PMI, the production index and the supplier delivery time index were above the critical point, while the new order index, raw material inventory index, and employment index were below the critical point [7]. - **Coking Coal Price in Xingtai**: On September 30, the coking coal prices in the Xingtai market remained stable. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal was 1490 yuan/ton, and the price of 1/3 coking coal was 1170 yuan/ton, both being ex - factory cash - inclusive prices effective from the 1st [9]. Spot Market - **Coke and Coking Coal Prices**: Provided the price quotes and changes of coke and coking coal in different markets such as Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, Ganqimao Port, and Jingtang Port, including week - on - week, month - on - month, year - on - year, and compared with the same period changes [11]. Relevant Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Included charts of coke inventory in 230 independent coking plants, port coke inventory, 247 steel - mill coking plant coke inventory, and total coke inventory [14][15][17]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Included charts of coking coal inventory at mine mouths, in ports, in all - sample independent coking plants, and in 247 sample steel mills [19][22][24]. - **Other Charts**: Included charts of domestic steel - mill production, Shanghai terminal wire rod and screw - thread steel procurement, washing - plant production, and coking - plant operation [25][28][30]. Future Outlook - **Coke**: The analysis of coke's supply, demand, and inventory was the same as the core view, concluding that the weak operation of coke futures was due to limited fundamentals, decreased policy uncertainty, increased market waiting - and - seeing sentiment, and pre - holiday capital outflows [32]. - **Coking Coal**: The analysis of coking coal's supply, demand, and market sentiment was the same as the core view, suggesting that the oscillatory correction of the main contract was due to pre - holiday risk - aversion, limited fundamentals, and marginal supply recovery. Attention should be paid to economic policy expectations and safety supervision during the holiday [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For glass, the supply - side production remains unchanged and hovers at the bottom, with obvious signs of production for just - in - time needs and profit recovery due to rising spot prices. The real - estate situation is not optimistic, and if there is no central bank interest - rate cut, glass demand may be dragged down. The downstream deep - processing orders have a slight increase, and purchases are mainly for just - in - time needs. It is recommended to short - term buy glass futures at low prices [2]. - For soda ash, the domestic soda ash operating rate and production are rising. In the long run, some backward production capacity may be phased out, while the more environmentally friendly natural soda ash production capacity is increasing steadily. The demand from glass remains unchanged at the bottom, and the demand from photovoltaic glass is expected to weaken. The inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises has decreased significantly. It is expected that the supply will be loose, demand will increase, and the price may rise. It is recommended to short - term buy soda ash futures at low prices [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price is 1255 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan; glass main contract closing price is 1210 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan [2]. - Soda ash and glass price difference is 45 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; soda ash main contract open interest is 1250366 lots, down 57443 lots; glass main contract open interest is 990735 lots, down 166760 lots [2]. - Soda ash top 20 net position is - 240287, up 5400; glass top 20 net position is - 84622, up 18719; soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 6352 tons, up 600 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged [2]. - Soda ash basis is - 68 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; glass basis is - 54 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan; the price difference between January and May glass contracts is - 116 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the price difference between January and May soda ash contracts is - 94 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash is 1210 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash is 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged; East China light soda ash is 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash is 1215 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shahe glass sheets are 1148 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass sheets are 1220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate is 89.12%, up 3.59 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate is 76.01%, unchanged [2]. - Glass in - production capacity is 16.07 million tons/year, up 0.05 million tons/year; the number of in - production glass production lines is 225, unchanged [2]. - Soda ash enterprise inventory is 159.99 million tons, down 5.16 million tons; glass enterprise inventory is 5935.5 million heavy - cases, down 155.3 million heavy - cases [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Cumulative real - estate new construction area is 39801.01 million square meters, up 4595.01 million square meters; cumulative real - estate completion area is 27693.54 million square meters, up 2659.54 million square meters [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Hubei Shuanghuan's soda ash plant increased production, with a light soda ash quotation of 1160 yuan/ton [2]. - Henan Haohua Junhua's soda ash plant reduced production due to synthetic ammonia problems, and the price remained stable [2]. - Zhongyan Anhui Hongsifang's soda ash plant increased its operating load [2]. - Chongqing Heyou Industry's 400000 - ton/year soda ash plant reduced its operating load [2]. - Tangshan Sanyou's 2.3 - million - ton/year soda ash plant reduced production, operating at about 70% capacity [2]. - Shandong Haitian Biological Chemical's 1.5 - million - ton/year soda ash plant resumed production [2]. - Shandong Haihua's 3 - million - ton/year soda ash plant reduced its operating load [2]. - Guangdong Southern Alkali's 600000 - ton/year soda ash plant resumed production [2]. - Anhui Huainan Alkali Plant's boiler was ignited [2]. - The soda ash market in Sichuan and Chongqing is stable, and supply is expected to increase as plants resume production, with strong market wait - and - see sentiment [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The polysilicon market is still under fundamental sentiment suppression but remains stable overall. The new energy - consumption national standard may affect the supply pattern in the short - term, and the uncertainty of the "anti - involution" policy is an important factor in market fluctuations. New capacity faces difficulties in being launched in the short - term. On the demand side, silicon wafer prices are flat, downstream inventory is high, new orders slow down, and domestic PV installation has declined for two consecutive months, resulting in weak terminal demand. However, the growth in N - type material demand may offset some of the P - type surplus and support prices. It is recommended to buy on dips and observe whether downstream PV enterprises can effectively transfer costs after the holiday [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 51,360 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the 11 - 12 spread is - 2,560 yuan, down 60 yuan; the main position is 87,359 lots, down 6,409 lots; the polysilicon - industrial silicon spread is 42,720 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 52,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis is 1,270 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan; the weekly average price of PV - grade polysilicon is 6.54 US dollars/kg, unchanged. The average prices of cauliflower, dense, and re - feed polysilicon are 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 8,640 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price is 9,450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 76,642.01 tons, up 2,635.83 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,337.59 tons, up 1,220.14 tons. The monthly output is 366,800 tons, up 33,600 tons; the total social inventory is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 125,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,006 tons, down 164 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 6.89 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly average import price is 2.62 US dollars/ton, down 0.25 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 6,985.7 million watts, up 347.5 million watts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of PV modules is 149,022,600 units, up 38,589,900 units; the monthly import volume is 21,440,200 units, up 6,914,600 units; the monthly average import price is 0.25 US dollars/unit, down 0.05 US dollars/unit. The weekly PV industry comprehensive price index (SPI) for polysilicon is 32.82, unchanged [2]. 3.6 Industry News - At the 2025 Brazil São Paulo Solar Exhibition, TrinaTracker announced supplying a 130MW Smart Tracking System for the Colinas project in Brazil, showing continuous breakthroughs of Chinese PV enterprises in the Latin American market. The draft of the new energy - consumption national standard for polysilicon has been released, and the "anti - involution" policy details are yet to be finalized [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply glut of industrial silicon has not improved yet. Although there is a production reduction expectation in the southwest region, the supply in the northwest region is stable. The downstream demand from organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy industries is generally flat, and the industry inventory remains high. Industrial silicon is expected to have no significant changes overall. It is recommended to buy at low prices and observe the production reduction intensity during the dry season after the holiday [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8,640 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the position of the main contract is 206,977 lots, down 34,235 lots; the net position of the top 20 is -51,575 lots, up 9,359 lots; the warehouse receipts of GEX are 50,983 lots, up 781 lots; the closing price of the December contract is -400 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the difference between the November and December contracts is -400 yuan, down 5 yuan [2] Spot Market - The average price of oxygenated 553 silicon is 9,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 810 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spot price of DMC is 11,050 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,860 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex-factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 366,800 tons, up 33,600 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 1,337.59 tons, up 1,220.14 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 76,642.01 tons, up 2,635.83 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic-grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market is 20,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic-grade polysilicon is 6.54 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unwrought aluminum alloy is 29,063.7 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 70.59%, down 0.53 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.635 million tons, up 99,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 29,063.7 tons, up 4,154.82 tons [2] Industry News - At the 2025 Brazil São Paulo Solar Exhibition, TrinaTracker, a Chinese photovoltaic enterprise, announced that it will supply a 130MW Blazer 1P intelligent tracking system for the Colinas project in Pernambuco, Brazil, marking a continuous breakthrough of Chinese photovoltaic enterprises in the Latin American market with the strategy of "global production + local service" [2] Viewpoint Summary - On the supply side, the spot price of industrial silicon has been fluctuating upward this week. There is a production reduction expectation in the southwest region, while the supply in the northwest region is stable. On the demand side, the downstream industries of industrial silicon, including organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy, have a flat overall demand for industrial silicon. The industry inventory remains high, and the digestion of inventory still faces certain pressure [2] Key Points of Attention - There is no news today [2]