投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-12-2 逆工业品走势下跌，天胶维持区间震荡 油脂：昨日震荡分化，关注马棕产需情况 蛋白粕：现货挺价盘面震荡，豆粕基差小幅走高 玉米/淀粉：东北持续走强，华北压力初显 生猪：出栏压力依旧，价格低位震荡 天然橡胶：逆工业品走势下跌，天胶维持区间震荡 合成橡胶：驱动不强，维持跟随震荡 棉花：套保压力制约短期上方高度 白糖：糖价低位震荡 纸浆：期货表现依旧疲弱，但纸浆低位存在支撑 双胶纸：12月提货仍有支撑，双胶纸窄幅震荡 原木：基本面矛盾不大，原木进入低估值区间 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 【异动品种】 天然橡胶观点：逆工业品走势下跌，天胶维持区间震荡 逻辑：天胶受泰国洪水减弱、产出放量压力依旧、国内港口累库、以及日 胶走势偏弱影响，昨日价格逆工业品走势下跌。天胶近期维持窄幅震荡格 局，上周先是泰南产区洪水消息发酵，但盘面并没有给出相应的反应，反 倒是在累库、NR新增交割替代品以及EUDR确认再度延期等偏利空消息的影 响下震荡下行，但同时又受下游采购积极性，以及本身估值相对偏低的支 撑，幅度也是非常有限。而 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On December 1st, equity index futures and CGB futures rallied; most commodities advanced, with metals leading the gains while agricultural products remained weak [2][9][12]. - Gold re - entered the uptrend, and silver's short squeeze boosted upside, unlikely to ease soon. Poly - Silicon prices trended higher, but its fundamentals remained weak [16][17][24]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On December 1st, equity index futures and CGB futures rallied; most commodities advanced, with metals leading the gains while agricultural products remained weak. China's financial futures: IH rose by 0.76%, IM rose by 1.08%, TL fell by 0.08%. In commodity futures, silver, platinum, and polysilicon topped the gainers, while egg futures, glass futures, and alumina led the decliners [9][10][11]. 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Gold & Silver - On December 1st, Gold rose 1.3% to 963.28 yuan/g, Silver rose 5.9% to 13278 yuan/kg. Gold re - entered the uptrend as the market became desensitized to Fed's possible actions in December, and the reshuffle of the Fed chair may open long - term rate cut expectations. Silver's short squeeze boosted upside, and it's unlikely to ease soon due to tight overseas spot supply and year - end delivery peak [15][16][17]. 1.2.2 Poly - Silicon - On December 1st, Poly - Silicon rose 3.3% to 57705 yuan/ton. Recent policy expectations picked up, but its fundamentals remained weak. Southwest China entered the dry season, reducing supply. Demand was also weak, and inventory remained high. Overall, 11 - 12 saw a decline in both supply and demand, with supply dropping more sharply, expecting a slight surplus or tight balance by year - end [23][24][25]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - French President Emmanuel Macron will pay a state visit to China from December 3rd to 5th. Chinese citizens can enter Russia visa - free for tourism and business purposes until September 14, 2026, with a maximum stay of 30 days [27]. 2.2 Industry News - The People's Bank of China convened the Meeting of the Coordination Mechanism for Cracking Down on Virtual Currency Trading and Speculation on November 28, 2025. Starting January 1, 2026, Shanghai Futures Exchange decided that futures company members, overseas special brokerage participants and overseas intermediaries shall not be subject to position limits. As of the end of October, the total assets under management of public funds had approached 37 trillion yuan, an increase of over 4 trillion yuan year - to - date [28].

Core Insights - The futures market is increasingly empowering the development of a modern industrial system and agricultural strength in Henan province, with various futures products being launched that align with the local industrial structure [1][2] Group 1: Agricultural Futures - In key peanut-producing areas like Junxian, farmers and buyers have adapted to using futures prices for transactions, enhancing market efficiency [1] - The "Huangludian Peanut" from Nanzhao County has gained recognition through futures delivery, showcasing the impact of futures on agricultural branding [1] - The futures market supports the entire peanut industry chain by providing price discovery and risk management, contributing to stable operations and quality improvements [1] Group 2: Industrial Futures - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) has listed 14 agricultural futures products, covering Henan's key agricultural products, while also offering industrial futures that align with the local industrial system [1] - The futures market plays a crucial role in the "low-cost + differentiation" strategy of companies like Henan Xinlianxin Chemical Industry Group, optimizing procurement, sales decisions, and inventory management [1] Group 3: Regional Development and Policy Support - The integration of transportation, logistics, and industrial development in Henan is enhanced by the role of futures delivery warehouses, which have evolved from basic storage to comprehensive supply chain services [2] - The region has implemented supportive policies to strengthen ZCE's pricing influence and outreach, aiming to enhance the futures market's contribution to Henan's high-quality economic development [2]

Core Insights - The futures market plays an increasingly important role in supporting the construction of a modern industrial system and a strong agricultural province in Henan, with various futures products being integrated into the local industry [1][3] Group 1: Agricultural Sector - The introduction of peanut futures has had a positive and profound impact on Henan's peanut industry, aiding in stable operations and promoting healthy development through price discovery and risk management [1] - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) has listed 14 agricultural futures products, covering Henan's advantageous agricultural products such as wheat, peanuts, apples, and jujubes [1] - The "insurance + futures" project has stabilized planting areas and incomes for farmers, contributing to the healthy development of the agricultural sector [1] Group 2: Industrial Sector - Futures tools are crucial in the "low-cost + differentiation" strategy of Henan Xinyan Chemical Industry Group, optimizing procurement, sales decisions, cost locking, and inventory management [2] - The futures market enhances the economic resilience and competitiveness of individual enterprises while also optimizing the industrial ecosystem [2] - The logistics hub in Anyang is rapidly developing, supported by designated futures delivery warehouses for various commodities, transforming from a traditional warehouse to a full-service supply chain financial hub [2] Group 3: Policy Support and Future Development - Henan has strengthened policy support for ZCE, implementing various special policies to enhance pricing influence and drive high-quality economic development [3] - ZCE plans to enhance communication with provincial and municipal departments to implement support policies and increase product and service offerings [3]

Core Insights - The training program on futures and derivatives business aims to enhance understanding and application of these financial tools in the context of Hainan's Free Trade Port development [1][2][3] Group 1: Importance of Futures and Derivatives - Futures and derivatives markets are essential for stabilizing production and operations by helping businesses manage price volatility [1][2] - These markets serve as a catalyst for resource allocation towards advantageous industries, promoting industrial upgrading and transformation [1][2] Group 2: Government and Industry Collaboration - Key enterprises are encouraged to integrate futures tools into the broader development strategy of the Free Trade Port, with government and key zones enhancing their capacity for financial innovation [2][4] - The collaboration between Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and Hainan's enterprises aims to support risk management and enhance market competitiveness [4] Group 3: Risk Management and Training - Emphasis is placed on the necessity of risk awareness and management as the Free Trade Port opens up, with a focus on identifying market and credit risks [3] - The training aims to build a professional cadre that understands policies, business operations, and risk management to effectively utilize futures tools [3][4]

金 信 期 货 P T A 乙 二 醇 日 刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 5 / 1 2 / 0 1 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD MEG 主力合约：12月01日乙二醇主力期货合约eg2601上涨0.28%，基差走弱4元/吨。 基本面：今日乙二醇华东地区市场价3897元/吨，较前一交易日上涨31元/吨。成本端原油价格上涨，煤制乙二醇的生产毛利亏损未见 好转，周度华东地区MEG港口库存合计70.8万吨，环比增加7.5万吨。 PTA 主力合约：12月01日PTA主力期货合约TA2601今天上涨1.93%，基差走弱至-31元/吨。 ibaotu.com 日度市场情况 基本面：今日PTA华东地区市场价4705元/吨，较前一交易日上涨70元/吨。成本端原油价格走高，OPEC+会议维持26年1季度暂停增 产决议；供给端PTA产能利用率73.81%；周度PTA工厂库存天数3.78天，环比减少0.03天。 主力动向：多头主力增仓 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report PVC social inventory is accumulating slightly at a high level. The cost of the calcium carbide process is rising, leading to deeper losses, while the cost of the ethylene process is decreasing, with a slight profit recovery. The PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to continue rising, and the high - operation state is likely to be maintained in December. With the temperature dropping, the downstream PVC开工率 is expected to decline seasonally. Although the overseas demand exists after the termination of India's BIS and anti - dumping tax policies on imported PVC, it has limited effect on alleviating the domestic supply - demand contradiction. The PVC market has rebounded recently due to cost - side benefits and short - covering, but the rebound space is limited under the background of high PVC operation and weak demand. Technically, the daily K - line of V2601 should pay attention to the pressure around 4600 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC is 4553 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 4 yuan/ton; the trading volume is 916,061 lots, with a daily increase of 192,901 lots; the open interest is 1,071,518 lots, with a daily decrease of 47,059 lots. - The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 1,065,765 lots, with a daily increase of 926 lots; the short position is 1,209,806 lots, with a daily increase of 246 lots; the net long position is - 144,041 lots, with a daily increase of 680 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4560 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 15 yuan/ton; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4516.92 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 38.46 yuan/ton. - In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4625 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4523.12 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 21.25 yuan/ton. - The CIF price of PVC in China is 640 US dollars/ton, with no change; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 620 US dollars/ton, with no change; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 660 US dollars/ton, with no change. The basis of PVC is - 63 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 4 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2750 yuan/ton, with no change; in North China, it is 2690 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 16.67 yuan/ton; in Northwest China, it is 2534 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 15 yuan/ton. - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 24.5 yuan/ton, with no change. - The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 438 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 38 US dollars/ton; in Southeast Asia, it is 498 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 40 US dollars/ton. - The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 173 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 6 US dollars/ton; in Southeast Asia, it is 178 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 6 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 80.22%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.39%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 83.61%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.3%; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 72.38%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.74%. - The total social inventory of PVC is 52.79 million tons, with a daily increase of 0.12 million tons. The total social inventory in the East China region is 48.13 million tons, with a daily increase of 0.08 million tons; in the South China region, it is 4.66 million tons, with a daily increase of 0.04 million tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 92.43, with a monthly decrease of 0.35. - The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 49,061.39 million square meters, with a monthly increase of 3662.39 million square meters. - The cumulative value of real estate construction area is 652,939.03 million square meters, with a monthly increase of 4359.03 million square meters. - The cumulative value of real estate development investment is 3898.297 billion yuan, with a monthly increase of 311.91 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 9.91%, with a daily decrease of 0.32%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 10.38%, with a daily increase of 0.17%. - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for PVC is 15.97%, with a daily increase of 1.66%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 15.97%, with a daily increase of 1.66% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From November 22nd to 28th, the PVC capacity utilization rate in China was 80.22%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.39%. - From November 22nd to 28th, the downstream PVC开工率 increased by 0.42% week - on - week to 49.61%. Among them, the pipe开工率 decreased by 1.4% week - on - week to 38.8%, and the profile开工率 increased by 0.21% week - on - week to 36.09%. - As of November 27th, the PVC social inventory increased by 0.99% week - on - week to 104.28 million tons. - From November 22nd to 28th, the average national cost of the calcium carbide process increased to 5131 yuan/ton, and the average national cost of the ethylene process decreased to 5187 yuan/ton; the profit of the calcium carbide process decreased to - 881 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ethylene process increased to - 465 yuan/ton [2].

糖期货目报 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 成文日期：20251201 报告周期: 日报 研究分析师：安致远（期货从业资格证号：F03143832；投资咨询证书号：Z0022799) 当日（20251128），期货品种玻璃 FG2601 合约全天维持震荡 反弹走势，较昨日小幅度上涨，收阳线。较昨日上涨约 1.15%、收 于 1053 点。全日成交量为 1859418 手，持仓量为 1413981 手，持 仓量较昨日减少 91847 手。 图 1：玻璃 FG2601 分时图 数据来源：国金期货行情软件 1.2 品种价格 玻璃期货 12 个合约价格呈现近低远高的态势，全天各合约（除 2610 合约无变化以外）均有一定幅度上涨。品种持仓量 2045617 手, 较上一交易日减少 88214 手，其中活跃合约玻璃 FG2601 持仓量减 少 91847 手。 图 2:玻璃期货日行情表 | ਉੱਚ ਸੀ। ਇਹ ਸਾਂ ਦੀ ਸੀ। ਉਹ ਇੱਕ ਸਿੰਘ ਦੇ ਸਾਂ ਵਿੱਚ ਇ | 昨结算 | 今开盘 | 最高价 | 島低价 | 令收當 | 今结算 | 涨跌 | 涨跌 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 増減量 | 成交 ...

11月29日凌晨，COMEX黄金期货涨1.44%，报4256.4美元/盎司。 中国经济网北京12月1日讯今日，上海期货交易所日间盘黄金期货主力合约震荡收高，成交放大，持仓 增加。主力2602合约收报963.28元，涨1.33%或12.66元;成交量为342979手;持仓为205323手，持仓增加 3194手。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - In December, the domestic urea market will maintain a state of high supply and low demand, but there are still supporting factors such as rigid demand and reserve demand. The downstream replenishment intensity will be the core factor determining the price trend. It is expected that the urea futures price will remain firm and oscillate, with limited upward space but strong support at the previous low [8]. - In December, the soda ash market may face pressures such as the expected output of new production capacity, the resumption of production of maintenance enterprises, and the continued decline of downstream production capacity. The supply - demand situation will remain loose, and the futures market is expected to maintain a wide - range bottom - oscillating trend [13]. - In November, the decline in glass supply drove the market to rebound, but the terminal demand is still weak, and the high - volume sales of spot need to be further observed. The futures market has limited upward momentum and is expected to oscillate widely at the bottom [17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market and Industrial Chain Raw Material Situation - **Futures Prices**: As of November 28, the closing price of the main urea futures contract increased by 3.2%; the main soda ash futures contract decreased by 3.92%; the main glass futures contract decreased by 2.77% [23]. - **Futures - related Varieties**: In November, the futures prices of related varieties showed a differentiated trend, with urea being the most robust and soda ash having the largest decline [25]. - **Coal Prices**: The prices of various types of coal in November increased compared with those in October, strengthening the cost support for the industry [27]. - **LNG Prices**: The LNG prices in most regions decreased in November [31]. - **Two - alkali Raw Material Salt**: In November, the prices of raw salt in most regions remained stable, with a slight increase in some areas, strengthening the cost support for soda ash [32]. 3.2 Urea: Market Focus Returns to Domestic in December, Pay Attention to Supply - demand Game - **Prices**: In November, both urea futures and spot prices increased. As of November 28, the closing price of the main futures contract was 1677 yuan/ton, a 3.2% increase from the end of October; the spot prices in Shandong and Henan increased by 80 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply**: In November, the urea supply level steadily recovered, with the daily output remaining above 200,000 tons for a long time. In December, the supply reduction may be limited due to the offset of new production capacity [6]. - **Demand**: In November, the downstream demand increased, and the apparent consumption is expected to reach 6.1849 million tons, a 11.48% increase from October. In December, it is the off - season for agricultural demand, but there is still support from reserve demand [7]. - **Inventory**: In November, the urea enterprise inventory decreased by 12.25% compared with that at the end of October, but it is still at the second - highest level in the past five years [56]. - **Export**: In October, the urea export volume decreased by 12.32% compared with that in September. The export volume in November may decrease to the range of 500,000 - 700,000 tons, showing a downward trend in November - December [7]. - **International Market**: India's new round of tender procurement volume is lower than planned, and the international market disturbances may weaken [8]. 3.3 Soda Ash: Loose Situation Continues, Futures Market to Remain at the Bottom in December - **Prices**: In November, the soda ash futures price showed a weak bottom - oscillating trend, with a 3.92% decrease in the main contract closing price compared with the end of October. The spot price showed a differentiated trend, with light soda ash prices mostly increasing and heavy soda ash prices remaining stable [11]. - **Supply**: In November, the soda ash production level and supply decreased to a phased low. In December, the supply may recover to a high level due to the expected output of new production capacity and the resumption of production of maintenance enterprises [11]. - **Demand**: In November, the demand for soda ash was differentiated, with rigid demand decreasing and replenishment demand increasing. In December, the rigid demand may continue to be under pressure [12]. - **Inventory**: In November, the soda ash enterprise inventory decreased by 6.2% compared with that at the end of October, but it is still at the second - highest level in the past five years. In December, the de - stocking pressure is still large [12]. - **Macro Policy**: There is news that China may introduce more incentive real - estate policies, which may have a positive impact on the soda ash - glass industry chain [13]. 3.4 Glass: Supply Decline Drives Sentiment Improvement, but Limited Trend Momentum in the Market - **Prices**: In November, the glass futures price fluctuated widely, with a 2.77% decrease in the main contract closing price compared with the end of October. The spot price continued to decline, with a 6.26% decrease in the average market price [15]. - **Supply**: In November, the glass supply level decreased slightly. The market's expectation of supply decline will continue into December [15]. - **Demand**: The core limiting factor for the glass market is the weak terminal demand. In December, the decline in demand may narrow [16]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of November, the glass enterprise inventory decreased by 5.21% compared with that at the end of October [15]. - **Macro Policy**: There is news that China may introduce more incentive real - estate policies, which may have a positive impact on the soda ash - glass industry chain [17].