Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for unilateral investment is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - After a significant drop on Tuesday and a sharp rise on Wednesday, there was no obvious change in the EG fundamentals. The increase was mainly due to defensive short - covering in response to unplanned maintenance at low market prices, along with positive sentiment in the commodity and chemical sectors [1] - The production margins of ethylene - based and coal - based syngas - based EG both decreased [1] - The inventory data from different sources showed different trends. The overall arrival volume is moderately high, and the main port is expected to see a slight inventory build - up [2] - In terms of the overall fundamental supply - demand logic, the supply pressure is high in the next 1 - 2 months, and the demand from weaving is weakening. Attention should be paid to the implementation of filament production cuts [2] - For investment strategies, the unilateral rating is neutral, and there are no suggestions for inter - period or inter - commodity strategies [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3818 yuan/ton (a change of +195 yuan/ton or +5.38% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 3598 yuan/ton (a change of +76 yuan/ton or +2.16% from the previous trading day). The spot basis in East China was - 13 yuan/ton (a decrease of 8 yuan/ton compared to the previous day) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production margin of ethylene - based EG was - 110 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 12 US dollars/ton compared to the previous day), and that of coal - based syngas - based EG was - 1046 yuan/ton (a decrease of 72 yuan/ton compared to the previous day) [1] - The overall domestic ethylene glycol operating rate has risen above 70% [2] International Price Difference - No specific data or analysis on the international price difference was provided in the text, but a figure (Figure 9) about the international price difference (US FOB - China CFR) was mentioned [20] Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - Weaving orders are weakening marginally, and the operating rate is declining rapidly, while the polyester operating rate remains firm. Attention should be paid to the implementation of filament production cuts due to weakening profitability [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF's data on Mondays, the MEG inventory at major ports in East China was 84.4 tons (a week - on - week increase of 2.5 tons); according to Longzhong's data on Thursdays, it was 61.7 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 13.8 tons) [2] - The planned arrival volume at major ports in East China last week was 11.1 tons and 3 tons at secondary ports; this week, the planned arrival volume at major ports is 11.8 tons and 2.7 tons at secondary ports. The overall volume is moderately high, and the main port is expected to see a slight inventory build - up [2] - The expected inventory build - up in the next 1 - 2 months is around 50 tons [2]

农产品日报 | 2025-12-25 糖价强势反弹，郑棉震荡上行 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约14180元/吨，较前一日变动+40元/吨，幅度+0.28%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15081元/吨，较前一日变动+14元/吨，现货基差CF05+901，较前一日变动-26；3128B棉全国均价15271元/吨， 较前一日变动+58元/吨，现货基差CF05+1091，较前一日变动+18。 近期市场资讯，截至2025年12月11日，美国累计净签约出口2025/26年度棉花144.5万吨，达到年度预期出口量的 54.39%，累计装运棉花60.5万吨，装运率41.88%。其中陆地棉签约量为140.2万吨，装运57.7万吨，装运率41.16%。 皮马棉签约量为4.2万吨，装运2.8万吨，装运率65.85%。其中，中国累计签约进口2025/26年度美棉6.4万吨，占美 棉已签约量的4.42％；累计装运美棉2.3万吨，占美棉总装运量的3.77％，占中国已签约量的35.68％。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡上行。国际方面，本月USDA对于全球棉花供需数据调整不大，25/26年度全球棉花 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Overseas gasoline crack spreads are weak, reducing the support of overseas gasoline blending for pure benzene. Although the peak of domestic pure benzene arrivals has passed, there is still some arrival pressure. This week, port inventories have further accumulated at a high level, and downstream提货 remains weak. The styrene start - up has bottomed out and rebounded, but the non - styrene start - up is still poor, and the CPL start - up is at a low level this year. The start - up of phenol and aniline has further declined [3]. - During the week, styrene port inventories slightly rebounded. The styrene start - up has bottomed out and rebounded, and it is the end of the previous destocking cycle. However, whether there is further inventory accumulation pressure still requires tracking the dynamics of styrene plants, especially the short - term shutdown of North China plants. Downstream start - up has declined again during the off - season, with EPS and PS start - up falling and ABS start - up consolidating at a low level. There is still inventory pressure on EPS and ABS finished products [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spreads - Pure benzene: The main basis is - 136 yuan/ton (- 36), the spot - M2 spread is - 130 yuan/ton (+ 5 yuan/ton), and the spread between the first - and third - contract is not mentioned in specific data [1]. - Styrene: The main basis is - 8 yuan/ton (- 79 yuan/ton), and the spread between the first - and third - contract is not mentioned in specific data [1]. 2. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic and Foreign Spreads - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee is 124 dollars/ton (- 2 dollars/ton), the FOB Korea processing fee is 117 dollars/ton (- 2 dollars/ton), and the US - Korea spread is 181.9 dollars/ton (+ 0.0 dollars/ton). The import profit and other data are not analyzed in detail [1]. - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit is - 177 yuan/ton (+ 13 yuan/ton), and the import profit and other data are not analyzed in detail [1]. 3. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventories, Start - up Rates - Pure benzene: The port inventory is 27.30 tons (+ 1.30 tons), and the start - up rate is not specifically mentioned. The downstream start - up shows that styrene start - up has bottomed out and rebounded, non - styrene start - up is poor, CPL start - up is at a low level this year, and phenol and aniline start - up has further declined [1][3]. - Styrene: The East China port inventory is 139,300 tons (+ 4,600 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 84,550 tons (+ 2,250 tons), and the start - up rate is 69.1% (+ 0.8%) [1]. 4. Styrene Downstream Start - up and Production Profits - EPS: The production profit is 176 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton), and the start - up rate is 51.81% (- 1.96%) [2]. - PS: The production profit is 26 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton), and the start - up rate is 54.50% (- 3.80%) [2]. - ABS: The production profit is - 911 yuan/ton (- 19 yuan/ton), and the start - up rate is 70.10% (- 0.43%) [2]. 5. Pure Benzene Downstream Start - up and Production Profits - Caprolactam: The production profit is - 350 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the start - up rate is 69.20% (- 5.37%) [1]. - Phenol - ketone: The production profit is - 902 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the start - up rate is 76.00% (- 3.50%) [1]. - Aniline: The production profit is 789 yuan/ton (+ 178), and the start - up rate is 61.35% (- 14.59%) [1]. - Adipic acid: The production profit is - 993 yuan/ton (+ 25), and the start - up rate is 59.60% (+ 0.40%) [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: None [4]. - Basis and inter - period: Do reverse spreads for BZ2603 - BZ2605 when the price is high [4]. - Cross - variety: Short BZ2603 and long PX2605 [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the given reports regarding the industry investment rating. Core Views 粕类产业 - The US soybean market has support at the bottom due to ongoing exports, but the strong expectation of a bumper harvest in South America restricts the upside potential. The domestic soybean meal market remains in a loose supply - demand situation, with limited downside and no clear upward drivers [1]. 生猪产业 - Spot prices are slightly stronger. The demand for curing around the Winter Solstice has increased, and the slaughter cycle is extended. The market shows a short - term trend of being slightly stronger in a volatile manner [2]. 油脂 industry - Palm oil may enter the production - reduction season, with exports improving, providing support to the market. Soybean oil has potential support from increased bio - diesel production due to tax credits, and the domestic demand may increase. Rapeseed oil's focus is on whether the 05 contract can break through the 9000 - yuan resistance [4]. 玉米 industry - The supply of corn is affected by weather in the Northeast and the selling rhythm in the North China. The demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises is weak. The market shows a short - term weak and volatile pattern with limited downside [5]. 红枣 industry - The raw material acquisition in Xinjiang is almost finished, and the market arrival is less than in previous years. The hedging profit is negative, and the future trend depends on the consumption situation [8]. 白糖 industry - The ICE raw sugar futures are in a short - term rebound, but the overall supply outlook is loose, keeping the trend bearish. The domestic sugar market has stopped falling and is rebounding, but the rebound is limited by supply pressure [10]. 棉花 industry - ICE cotton futures are rising slightly due to weak dollar and strong export demand. The domestic cotton supply pressure is gradually released, and the demand from downstream spinning mills is weakening. The market is expected to fluctuate in a relatively strong range [12]. 鸡蛋 industry - The supply of laying hens is gradually decreasing, and the demand is expected to improve during the New Year and Spring Festival. However, the overall supply - demand contradiction is only marginally alleviated, and the near - term contracts are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [14]. 苹果 industry - The market consumption has slightly improved during the festival, but the apple market is squeezed by citrus fruits. Attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction rhythm, and long positions are advised to exit at an appropriate time [16]. Summary by Related Catalogs 粕类产业 - **Prices**: Jiangsu soybean meal spot price is 3100 yuan/ton, M2605 futures price is 2728 yuan/ton; Jiangsu rapeseed meal spot price is 2420 yuan/ton, RM2605 futures price is 2344 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean meal 05 - 09 spread is - 122, the rapeseed meal 05 - 09 spread is - 56, and the oil - meal ratio shows an increase [1]. 生猪产业 - **Futures**: The main contract basis is - 15 yuan/ton, the price of Niu Zhu 2605 is 11985 yuan/ton, and the price of Sheng Zhu 2603 is 11480 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spot**: The average spot price in various regions shows a slight increase, and the sample - point slaughter volume has increased by 0.16% [2]. 油脂 industry - **Prices**: The spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil is 8350 yuan/ton, Y2605 futures price is 7992 yuan/ton; the spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil is 8470 yuan/ton, P2605 futures price is 8486 yuan/ton; the spot price of Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil is 9560 yuan/ton, OI605 futures price is 9302 yuan/ton [4]. - **Spreads**: The soybean oil 05 - 09 spread is 64, the palm oil 05 - 09 spread is 124, and the rapeseed oil 05 - 09 spread is 42 [4]. 玉米 industry - **Prices**: The price of Yu Mi 2603 is 2196 yuan/ton, the Jinzhou Port FOB price is 2280 yuan/ton; the price of Yu Mi Dian Fen 2603 is 2494 yuan/ton [5]. - **Spreads**: The corn 3 - 5 spread is - 35, the corn starch 3 - 5 spread is - 44 [5]. 红枣 industry - **Prices**: The price of Hong Zao 2601 is 8800 yuan/ton, the price of Hong Zao 2605 (main contract) is 8890 yuan/ton [8]. - **Spreads**: The 1 - 5 spread of red dates is - 90, and the 5 - 9 spread is - 245 [8]. 白糖 industry - **Futures**: The price of Bai Tang 2601 is 5392 yuan/ton, the price of Bai Tang 2605 is 5262 yuan/ton, and the ICE raw sugar main contract price is 15.30 cents/pound [10]. - **Spot**: The Nanning spot price is 5340 yuan/ton, and the Kunming spot price is 5240 yuan/ton [10]. 棉花 industry - **Futures**: The price of Mian Hua 2605 is 14180 yuan/ton, the price of Mian Hua 2601 is 14210 yuan/ton, and the ICE cotton main contract price is 64.20 cents/pound [12]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B is 15081 yuan/ton, and the CC Index: 3128B is 15271 yuan/ton [12]. 鸡蛋 industry - **Prices**: The price of Ji Dan 01 contract is 3027 yuan/500KG, the price of Ji Dan 02 contract is 2947 yuan/500KG, and the egg - producing area price is 2.89 yuan/jin [14]. - **Spreads**: The 1 - 2 spread of eggs is 125 [14]. 苹果 industry - **Prices**: The price of Ping Guo 2605 (main contract) is 9191 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 991 yuan/ton [16]. - **Spreads**: The 1 - 5 spread of apples is 473, and the 5 - 10 spread is 1022 [16].

2025年12月25日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：短期节奏反弹，高度有限 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆驱动不大，区间操作为主 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆收涨，连粕或反弹震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：国储收储价上调，影响偏多 | 4 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 6 | | 白糖：弱基差预期 | 7 | | 棉花：期价震荡偏强，注意整体市场情绪20251225 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：震荡调整 | 10 | | 生猪：投机需求兑现 | 11 | | 花生：关注油厂收购 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 25 日 品 研 究 棕榈油：短期节奏反弹，高度有限 豆油：美豆驱动不大，区间操作为主 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价(日 盘） | 涨跌幅 0.02% | 收盘价 （夜 盘） | 涨跌幅 0.78% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - The steel market sentiment is weak, and steel prices are oscillating within a range. The fundamentals of building materials are improving, but there are still expectations of seasonal decline in demand. The high inventory of plates continues to suppress price performance [1]. - The iron ore market is mainly in a wait - and - see state, with prices fluctuating narrowly. The supply of iron ore is relatively sufficient, but due to reduced liquidity of some port supplies, the price remains high. The demand for iron ore is marginally weakening, and there will be downward pressure on prices if port supply liquidity recovers [3]. - The supply - demand of coking coal and coke is in a weak balance, and prices are maintaining an oscillating trend. After the third round of price cuts for coke, the supply - demand is in a weak balance, and the price is still under pressure. The supply of coking coal is tightening, but demand is insufficient, and the fundamentals are weak [5][6]. - The price of thermal coal in the production area has stopped falling and stabilized, while the port price is continuously declining. Near the end of the month, the supply is shrinking, demand is stable, and the price is oscillating. In the long - term, the supply is still loose [8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel Market Analysis - Futures and spot: Steel futures oscillated, and according to Steel Valley data, steel inventory decreased yesterday, with hot - rolled coil inventory decreasing faster and demand rising. Building material inventory decline converged, and demand slightly decreased [1]. - Supply - demand and logic: The fundamentals of building materials are improving, with off - season consumption maintaining resilience, a slight increase in production, and continuous decline in inventory. With cooling, there are expectations of seasonal decline in demand. Plate production declined, consumption and exports slightly decreased but remained resilient. High inventory continued to suppress plate prices, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar weakened [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation; Cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options: None [2] Iron Ore Market Analysis - Futures and spot: Iron ore futures prices oscillated. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port fluctuated slightly. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills' procurement was mainly for rigid demand. The cumulative transaction volume of iron ore at major ports was 1.288 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.51%. The cumulative transaction volume of forward spot was 835,000 tons (10 transactions), a month - on - month decrease of 14.80% [3]. - Supply - demand and logic: The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is accumulating, the price remains relatively high, and the supply is relatively sufficient. However, due to reduced liquidity of some port supplies, the price remains high. Some steel mills are reducing production to relieve restocking pressure, and short - term restocking willingness is insufficient. If port supply liquidity recovers, the price will face downward pressure [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation; Cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, and options: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The main futures contracts of coking coal and coke oscillated. Some steel mills controlled coke purchases, providing weak support for coke. Some coking coal varieties with inventory pressure saw prices drop by 20 - 30 yuan/ton, and overall transactions were average. The customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port for imported Mongolian coal remained high, and the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was weakly stable at around 960 - 980 yuan/ton [5]. - Supply - demand and logic: After the third - round price cut for coke, production increased slightly, and pig iron production remained low. The short - term supply - demand of coke was in a weak balance, and the price was still under pressure. The supply of coking coal tightened as some coal mines completed their annual tasks and stopped or reduced production, but downstream demand was insufficient, and the fundamentals were weak [5][6]. Strategy - Coking coal and coke: Oscillation; Cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, and options: None [7] Thermal Coal Market Analysis - Futures and spot: In the production area, coal prices oscillated. Some coal mines stopped or reduced production after completing annual tasks, and the supply tightened. The market maintained rigid procurement, and the sales of some cost - effective coal mines improved slightly, with a few coal types slightly increasing in price. At the port, the market was still weak. Some rigid demand and short - covering inquiries near the end of the month increased slightly, and the pessimistic sentiment eased slightly. The actual procurement by downstream power plants and end - users was still weak, and short - term prices were weak. The imported coal market was stable, with the demand for medium - and high - calorie coal average and prices weakly stable. The demand for low - calorie coal increased, and quotes rose slightly [8]. - Supply - demand and logic: Near the end of the month, the supply contracted, demand was stable, and the price oscillated. In the long - term, the supply was still in a loose pattern [8]. Strategy - Not provided in the content

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillatory [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillatory and Weakening [2] - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Oscillatory [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillatory [4] Core Views - Market sentiment is low, and steel prices are oscillating within a range. Glass prices are oscillating upward with increased production line maintenance, while soda ash prices are oscillating narrowly. The sentiment of waiting and seeing is growing for ferrosilicon and ferrosilicon manganese, and their alloy prices are consolidating [1][3]. - For glass, the supply is contracting due to cold - repairs in some production lines in late December, but the supply contraction is insufficient, the rigid demand lacks improvement, and there is still an expectation of further decline in rigid demand as the Spring Festival approaches. High inventory also suppresses prices. For soda ash, although production has declined, it is still at a relatively high level, and with new production lines coming into operation, supply may increase further. High inventory and potential cold - repairs of float glass production lines pose challenges to heavy soda demand [1]. - For ferrosilicon manganese, enterprises are in continuous losses, with production and operating rates at relatively low levels, but the reduction in production is insufficient, leading to record - high enterprise inventories. The cost support has weakened. For ferrosilicon, production decreased significantly last week, inventory pressure has been relieved, and the fundamental contradictions have eased [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: Futures oscillated upward yesterday, while the market transaction center of spot goods moved downward, and downstream buyers mainly purchased on demand. Some production lines are expected to undergo cold - repairs in late December, leading to a contraction in glass supply [1]. - Soda Ash: Futures oscillated narrowly yesterday, and downstream buyers showed strong waiting - and - seeing sentiment, mainly purchasing for rigid demand [1]. Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: Production is oscillating at a high level, the supply contraction is insufficient, rigid demand lacks improvement, and there is an expectation of further decline in rigid demand as the Spring Festival approaches. High inventory suppresses prices. Attention should be paid to glass cold - repair situations and the impact of macro - policies on speculative demand [1]. - Soda Ash: Production has declined but is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period. With new production lines coming into operation, supply may increase further. High inventory and potential cold - repairs of float glass production lines pose challenges to heavy soda demand. Attention should be paid to downstream demand situations [1]. Strategy - Glass: Oscillatory [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillatory and Weakening [2] Ferrosilicon Manganese and Ferrosilicon Market Analysis - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Futures oscillated narrowly yesterday, and spot prices were consolidating at a high level. Steel tenders are ongoing, with prices in the northern market ranging from 5,520 - 5,570 yuan/ton and in the southern market from 5,620 - 5,670 yuan/ton [3]. - Ferrosilicon: Futures maintained narrow - range oscillations yesterday. Steel tenders are imminent, and spot prices are stable. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production areas is 5,200 - 5,250 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon is 5,600 - 5,650 yuan/ton [3]. Supply - Demand and Logic - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Enterprises are in continuous losses, with production and operating rates at relatively low levels, but the reduction in production is insufficient, leading to record - high enterprise inventories. Port manganese ore inventories continue to rise, and the total manganese element inventory has slightly increased, weakening the cost support. Attention should be paid to cost support and production changes [3]. - Ferrosilicon: Production decreased significantly last week as enterprises actively adjusted their production rhythms to cope with declining demand. Inventory pressure has been relieved, and the fundamental contradictions have eased. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction, cost - end changes, and regional policies [3]. Strategy - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Oscillatory [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillatory [4]

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore 2605 contract is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, and the intraday trend being slightly weaker. The current situation is weakly stable, and the ore price will move in an oscillatory manner [1]. - The iron ore supply - demand pattern has not improved. Demand continues to weaken and steel mills' profitability has not improved, keeping the weak pattern. The supply remains high, but there are positive factors like the unresolved structural contradiction in the spot market and the pre - holiday restocking expectation. The ore price will continue to face pressure but also has resistance to decline, and will continue to oscillate at a high level [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term (within one week) trend is oscillatory, the medium - term (two weeks to one month) trend is oscillatory, and the intraday trend is slightly weaker. The overall view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is that the current pattern is weakly stable, leading to oscillatory movement of the ore price [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The iron ore supply - demand situation is unfavorable, with demand weakening continuously and steel mills' profit not improving, which keeps the pressure on the ore price. The positive factors are the pre - holiday restocking expectation and the unresolved structural contradiction in the spot market. Although the domestic port arrival and miners' shipments have decreased month - on - month, they are still at a high level within the year, and the overseas ore supply is active. The overall supply remains high, and under the game of long and short factors, the ore price will continue to oscillate at a high level, and the restocking situation of steel mills should be monitored [3].

每经AI快讯，周三（12月24日）纽约尾盘，COMEX铜期货涨0.22%，报5.5730美元/磅。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias, yet limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, with poor operability on the current trading floor, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Apple: ★☆☆, showing a bearish bias, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Timber: Not clearly rated, with the symbol being unclear [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias, yet limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the market conditions, including supply, demand, and inventory, for various soft commodities such as cotton, sugar, and natural rubber. It also offers corresponding trading strategies based on these analyses [2][3][5] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Categories Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton continued to rise today, while cotton spot sales were generally poor but prices remained stable. Despite a large increase in new cotton production this year, commercial inventory was basically the same year - on - year, and the sales progress was fast, providing strong support for the market. Demand remained stable during the off - season. As of December 18, domestic cumulative processed lint cotton was 648600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 82000 tons. As of December 15, national cotton commercial inventory was 5.349 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16300 tons. There were expectations of a decrease in Xinjiang's new - year planting area. Spinning mills' raw material demand was resilient, and their finished - product inventory was not high. Recently, Zhengzhou cotton showed a strong and volatile trend, and the industry could focus on hedging opportunities, with operations mainly based on buying on dips [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Thailand, as of December 22, the 2025/26 sugar - making season had produced 815300 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 133600 tons, and the production progress was slow. In Brazil, after entering the rainy season, rainfall in the central - southern main producing areas was low, which was not conducive to sugarcane growth, and the sugarcane yield per unit area might continue to decline next year. However, rainfall increased in December. In China, Zhengzhou sugar rebounded sharply. In November, Guangxi's production progress was slow, and sugar production decreased year - on - year. In November, China imported 440000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 93400 tons. In the short term, the northern hemisphere had a strong expectation of increased production, and sugar prices at home and abroad were expected to remain low. However, there was a possibility of production reduction in major producing countries next year, and attention should be paid to later weather conditions [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price remained stable, and cold - storage transactions were few. Merchants mainly packed their own goods and sent them to the market, with little procurement of fruit farmers' goods. As of December 19, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 7.127 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.78%. The national cold - storage apple destocking volume was 70900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.86%. The market's trading logic shifted to demand. This year's apple quality was poor, but the purchase price was high. Traders and fruit farmers had a strong sentiment of reluctance to sell, which might affect the destocking speed. Currently, demand entered the off - season, total market demand decreased, and the reluctance - to - sell sentiment also affected the sales speed, resulting in slow recent sales and increased bearish sentiment in the market. Operations should maintain a bearish stance [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber RU, 20 - rubber NR, and butadiene rubber BR all rose. The domestic natural rubber spot price generally increased, the synthetic rubber spot price was stable, the overseas butadiene port price was stable, and the Thai raw material market price mostly declined. Globally, natural rubber supply would shift from the high - yield period to the low - yield period, with Yunnan's production area in China fully stopped, Hainan's production area gradually stopping, and Vietnam's production area to gradually stop later. Last week, the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate increased significantly, with Maoming Petrochemical's plant still under maintenance and Dushanzi Petrochemical's plant operating at a low load, and the upstream butadiene plant operating rate continued to decline. Last week, China's tire operating rate decreased slightly, and Shandong tire enterprises' finished - product inventory continued to rise. This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao area announced by Longzhong increased to 515200 tons, with both bonded and general trade inventories in Qingdao increasing. Last week, the social inventory of Chinese cis - butadiene rubber announced by Fuchuang decreased to 15000 tons, and the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory slightly increased to 36000 tons. Overall, demand weakened, natural rubber supply decreased, synthetic rubber supply increased, natural rubber inventory continued to rise, synthetic rubber inventory decreased, cost support strengthened, and market sentiment improved. The strategy was to expect a rebound [5] Pulp - Today, pulp showed a volatile trend. Although commodities were generally strong, pulp's short - term upward potential was limited due to weak downstream demand. The spot price of coniferous pulp Moon was 5500 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian coniferous pulp in the Yangtze River Delta was 5400 yuan/ton; the price of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4670 yuan/ton. As of December 18, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 1.993 million tons, a decrease of 43000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%. Although the inventory was higher year - on - year, it was at a relatively low level this year. In November, China imported 3.246 million tons of pulp, a year - on - year increase of 440000 tons. The new - year contracts, especially the 01 contract, might face less warehouse - receipt pressure; the narrowing price difference between coniferous and broad - leaf pulp also provided some support for coniferous pulp. Recently, the overseas prices of coniferous and broad - leaf pulp had both increased. Paper mills mainly purchased pulp based on rigid demand, and the increase in base paper prices was relatively weak. The pulp market had intense trading. Operations should either wait and see or conduct short - term trading [6] Logs - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price remained stable. Overseas prices were lowered, and domestic spot prices remained weak. The short - term arrival volume would decrease. As of December 19, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 national ports was 63200 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 1400 cubic meters, a decrease of 2.17%. Demand entered the off - season, but the average daily export volume remained above 60000 cubic meters, indicating acceptable off - season demand. As of December 19, the total national port log inventory was 2.6 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 120000 cubic meters, a decrease of 4.41%. The total national log inventory was low, with relatively little inventory pressure. Overall, low inventory provided some support for prices, and operations should wait and see [7]