Group 1 - Spot gold (XAU/USD) reached a historical high of $4240 before stabilizing above $4200, driven by geopolitical uncertainty, trade tensions, and the U.S. fiscal deadlock, leading investors to increase their positions in safe-haven assets [1] - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in both October and December, diminishing the dollar's yield advantage and providing ongoing support for gold [1] - The dollar index (DXY) fell to around 98.50, marking a one-week low, as market bets on further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve reached a probability of 94.6% for a total of 50 basis points this year [1] Group 2 - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its third week, with the Treasury estimating weekly economic losses of approximately $15 billion, impacting economic activity [2] - Market sentiment is fluctuating between "rate cut expectations" and "safe-haven demand," with funds flowing into precious metals and European currencies as the dollar remains under pressure [2] - The upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials and developments regarding the U.S. government shutdown will be critical in determining the timing of any potential dollar rebound [2]

【黄金期货最新行情】 | 10月16日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 966.42 | 1.84% | 459193 | 225159 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【基本面消息】 瑞达期货：美联储放鸽+关税扰动！金价警惕暴涨后回调压力 隔夜，国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX黄金期货涨1.48%报4224.90美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货涨 3.76%报52.53美元/盎司，伦敦白银实物库存紧缺态势延续，支撑银价大幅上行。受关税局势不确定性 及美联储降息预期提振，伦敦金价持续走高并持稳于4200美元关口上方，白银价格也在金价带动下维持 强劲上涨态势。中国对韩华海洋在美子公司实施限制，浇灭了市场对快速缓和的预期，特朗普称或停止 与中国的食用油贸易，作为北京拒购美豆的报复，令美中关系再趋紧张。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，未来 几个月可能适时停止缩表，并注意到货币市场已出现一些流动性收紧的迹象，自9月FOMC议息会议以 来，通胀和就业整体态势保持平稳，但劳动力市场疲软信号有所增加， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - situation changes bring significant short - term impacts on the non - ferrous sector. After the market quickly reflects the negative news, it may return to the original fluctuation logic. It is not advisable to chase short positions excessively in the short term, and one can consider bargain - hunting for strong varieties [14]. - The market's concern about the US imposing tariffs on copper imports may rise, which will intensify the siphon effect of the US market and highlight the structural contradiction of global copper inventory. The supply pressure of copper cannot be alleviated, while the domestic macro - level in the fourth quarter is expected to boost copper demand. For Shanghai copper, one can try to gradually buy on dips [4][15]. - The zinc market is affected by trade situations and profit - taking. It is expected to continue to fluctuate and rebound, and one can buy on dips [15][16]. - The aluminum industry chain shows different trends. Aluminum is in a state of shock consolidation, and it is recommended to reduce short positions; alumina is bearish, and one can hold a short - biased view; the regenerative aluminum alloy is supported by tight scrap supply, and short positions can be reduced [6][16]. - The tin market has a slight improvement in demand during the peak season, but high prices suppress spot trading. One can increase short positions moderately on rallies [7]. - The lead market is in a state of range - bound fluctuations, and one can continue to consider the option double - selling strategy in a wider range [9]. - The nickel and stainless - steel markets are affected by trade situations. Nickel is in a weak shock, and one can be slightly bullish on dips; stainless steel is in a shock pattern, and one can buy on dips [10][17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metal Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The change in Sino - US trade relations leads to an increase in risk - aversion demand, and risk assets fluctuate significantly. The non - ferrous metals show internal differentiation, with copper having relatively large fluctuations and other metals being more cautious in consolidation. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in October with a high probability [13]. - **Investment Suggestions for Each Metal** - **Copper**: Concerns about US tariffs may rise, supply pressure persists, and demand is expected to increase in the fourth quarter. Buy on dips, with support at 83000 - 84000 yuan/ton and resistance at 89000 - 90000 yuan/ton [4][15]. - **Zinc**: After a short - term rise, profit - taking and trade situations cause adjustments. It is expected to fluctuate and rebound, with support at 21500 - 21600 and resistance at 22400 - 22500. Buy on dips [15][16]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Aluminum**: Supply capacity changes slightly, and demand shows seasonal characteristics with internal differentiation. It is in shock consolidation, with support at 20200 - 20500 and resistance at 21000 - 21300. Reduce short positions [16]. - **Alumina**: Production changes little, and it is bearish, with support at 2600 - 2700 and resistance at 3000 - 3200. Hold a short - biased view [6][16]. - **Regenerative Aluminum Alloy**: Supported by tight scrap supply, it moves in tandem with Shanghai aluminum. Reduce short positions, with support at 20000 - 20200 and resistance at 20800 - 21000 [6]. - **Tin**: Supply is affected by smelter maintenance and raw material shortages, and demand improvement is limited. Increase short positions moderately on rallies, with support at 260000 - 270000 and resistance at 290000 - 300000 [7][16]. - **Lead**: Supply is affected by production cuts and maintenance, and demand recovers after the holiday. It is in range - bound fluctuations, with support at 16500 - 16600 and resistance at 17000 - 17200. Consider the option double - selling strategy [9][17]. - **Nickel**: Supply is stable in the short term, and demand slows down. It is in weak shock, with support at 118000 - 120000 and resistance at 125000 - 128000. Be slightly bullish on dips [10][17]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supply growth slows down, and demand recovers but remains weak. It is in a shock pattern, with support at 12500 - 12600 and resistance at 13000 - 13200. Buy on dips [10][17]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metal Market Review - **Futures Closing Prices and Changes** - Copper closed at 85800 yuan/ton, up 1.65%. - Zinc closed at 22015 yuan/ton, down 0.92%. - Aluminum closed at 20910 yuan/ton, up 0.24%. - Alumina closed at 2797 yuan/ton, down 0.29%. - Tin closed at 281710 yuan/ton, up 0.46%. - Lead closed at 17110 yuan/ton, up 0.35%. - Nickel closed at 121180 yuan/ton, up 0.29%. - Stainless steel closed at 12560 yuan/ton, down 0.04%. - Cast aluminum alloy closed at 20410 yuan/ton, up 0.15% [18][19]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metal Position Analysis - Different non - ferrous metal futures contracts show different net long - short positions and changes, which are affected by factors such as non - main - force funds, main - force long - position increases or decreases, and main - force short - position increases [21]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metal Spot Market - **Spot Prices and Changes** - Copper spot prices range from 85475 - 85600 yuan/ton, with a decline of about 0.53% - 0.54%. - Zinc spot prices range from 21850 - 22020 yuan/ton, with a decline of about 0.81% - 0.95%. - Aluminum spot prices range from 20820 - 20900 yuan/ton, with little change. - Alumina spot prices range from 2974 yuan/ton (domestic average) to 320 US dollars/ton (Australia FOB), with a decline of about 0.23% for the domestic average [24]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metal Industry Chain - The report provides a series of charts related to the industry chain of each non - ferrous metal, including inventory changes, processing fees, price trends, and their relationships, which helps to analyze the supply - demand situation and price trends of each metal [26][30][32]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metal Arbitrage - The report presents a series of charts related to the arbitrage of each non - ferrous metal, such as the ratio of domestic and foreign prices, basis, and price differences between different contracts, which helps to find arbitrage opportunities [64][65][67]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metal Options - The report provides a series of charts related to the options of each non - ferrous metal, including historical volatility, implied volatility, trading volume, and open - interest ratio, which helps to analyze the option market and formulate option strategies [80][82][84].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, but short - term fluctuations are increasing. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term fast - in - fast - out operations. Pullbacks are considered opportunities for medium - to long - term long positions, and existing long positions should be held with caution. The resistance levels for London gold are 4300 and 4500, and the support is in the 4150 area; for silver, the resistance is 55 and the support is 50 [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Wednesday, precious metal prices continued to be strong. The US dollar index declined, European and American stocks showed mixed performance, Bitcoin continued to fall, and crude oil fluctuated. The silver lease rate rose again, indicating a severe shortage of physical silver. The results of the US "232" investigation on silver and palladium are expected to be submitted on October 19, which involves the sensitive issue of whether the US will impose a 50% tariff on silver and palladium. The COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $4224.9 per ounce, up 1.48%; the US silver 2512 contract closed at $52.525 per ounce, up 3.76%. The SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 960.34 yuan per gram, up 2.09%; the SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 11966 yuan per kilogram, up 2.3% [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations are generally stable. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 2.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut is 97.3%. For December, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 0.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 5.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 94.2%. In January, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 2.7%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 47.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 50.1%. In terms of long - term funds, the SPDR Gold ETF's holdings increased by 1.15 tons to 1022.6 tons; the iShares Silver ETF's holdings decreased by 310.48 tons to 15422.61 tons. In terms of inventory, the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 32.7 tons to 1030.4 tons per day; as of the week ending October 10, the SGX silver inventory decreased by 64.3 tons to 1108.1 tons per week [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - In terms of data, pay attention to the US September retail sales and PPI data tonight. Due to the US government shutdown, the release of the US September CPI, originally scheduled for October 15, will be postponed to October 24. In terms of events, there will be intensive speeches by Fed officials this week, which will provide more guidance for the US FOMC meeting on October 31. At 21:00 on Thursday, Fed Governor Waller will give a speech; at 00:15 on Saturday, 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will give a speech. Also, at 02:00 on Thursday, the Fed will release the Beige Book on economic conditions [4].

格隆汇10月16日丨澳大利亚股市周四收盘创历史新高，金融、房地产和黄金股的强劲上涨成为主要推动 力，此前失业率意外上升，增强了市场对下月降息的预期。S&P/ASX 200 指数收涨0.9%至9,068.4点。 当天早盘曾创下9,109.70点的历史新高，是首次突破9,100点关口。澳大利亚劳动力市场数据显示，9月 失业率跃升至近四年来最高水平，使11月降息的概率从数据公布前的40%升至约72%。金融股上涨逾 1%，收盘创历史新高。澳大利亚第四大市值银行澳新银行早盘触及历史高点，收盘创十多年新高。 Moomoo市场策略师Jessica Amir表示，利率下降将直接促进抵押贷款需求和放贷活动的大幅改善，这也 解释了投资者对银行股的热情。房地产股对利率敏感，板块上涨2.8%，创自今年4月以来表现最佳的单 日涨幅。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

就市场预期而言，各方普遍认可2025年将再度进行两次降息的观点，然而针对2026年的降息前景，经济 学家们的意见却出现了分化。在乐观情境下，更为宽松的金融环境——涵盖更低的联邦基金利率、下行 的国债收益率以及相对疲软的美元汇率——加之贸易形势的明朗化，有望稳定市场信心，激发企业重新 开启投资与招聘活动。在此情形下，美联储或许会依照现行预测，仅再执行一次降息操作。 反之，若陷入悲观情境，关税政策的负面效应不断加剧，势必会压缩消费者的支出空间并侵蚀企业利 润。这将引发就业市场动能的持续衰减乃至绝对水平的下降，同时住房市场的增速放缓与价格调整也将 显著放大经济的下行风险。在此背景下，美联储可能在2026年初持续下调利率，直至政策步入刺激经济 增长的区间。目前，基准预测处于上述两种极端情形之间——据荷兰国际集团预估，2026年还将有两次 降息动作，届时联邦基金利率的目标区间将下调至3%-3.25%。 【最新国际黄金行情解析】 今日周四（10月16日）亚盘时段，国际黄金目前交投于4230美元附近，截至发稿，国际黄金最新报 4224.56美元/盎司，涨幅0.42%，最高上探4241.77美元/盎司，最低触及4198.59 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rise in gold prices is primarily driven by increasing expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical uncertainties, and escalating international trade tensions [3][4][6]. Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices have shown strong performance, trading around $4,229 per ounce after a significant increase of 1.59% on the previous day, marking four consecutive days of gains [1]. - The U.S. dollar index has declined by 0.32% to 98.72, reflecting a bearish trend over two consecutive days [1]. - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates little change in U.S. economic activity, with signs of increased layoffs and reduced spending among middle- and low-income households [4]. - Market expectations suggest a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on October 28-29, with further cuts anticipated in December and three more in the following year [1][3]. - The labor market is under pressure, with layoffs increasing and spending declining, particularly among lower-income families [4][5]. - The ongoing government shutdown has resulted in an estimated economic output loss of approximately $15 billion per day, affecting key economic data releases [5]. - Trade tensions have reignited, particularly regarding U.S.-China relations, contributing to market uncertainty and further supporting gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [6]. Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates a strong bullish trend for gold, with potential upward movement towards the $4,300 level [8]. - Short-term trading strategies suggest entering long positions around $4,145 or $4,120, with a stop loss of $10 and targets set at $4,190 and $4,230 [7][8]. - Caution is advised for traders, as there may be a risk of price pullbacks, particularly around the $4,250 level [8].

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) has fallen below the 0.6500 mark against the US dollar, currently at 0.6489, reflecting a decline of 0.30% [1] - Australia's unemployment rate rose to 4.5% in September, igniting expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) [1] - Employment data showed an increase of 14,900 jobs in September, which was below the market expectation of 20,000, while the previous month's job loss was revised to a decrease of 11,800 from 54,000 [1] Group 2 - RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter's cautious remarks provided some support for the AUD, noting that recent data was slightly better than expected and that third-quarter inflation might exceed forecasts [1] - The RBA's September monetary policy meeting minutes indicated that board members believe the current policy is still somewhat restrictive, but the extent is difficult to determine [1] - Economic risks remain, with weak employment and wage growth contributing to subdued consumer spending [1] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that the AUD/USD remains in a downward channel, with bearish sentiment persisting [2] - The potential downside target for the AUD/USD is around 0.6440, and a break below this support could lead to testing the four-month low of 0.6414 and the five-month low of 0.6372 [2] - On the upside, initial resistance is at the 9-day exponential moving average of 0.6527, followed by the 50-day moving average at 0.6551, with a breakthrough potentially improving short- and medium-term price momentum [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US has shown signs of easing tensions, with the US dollar index falling and US stocks rising. The Fed is considering accelerating interest - rate cuts. Domestically, the economy shows weak recovery, with A - shares rebounding on low volume. In the short term, the stock market is expected to be volatile and weak, while in the long term, there is value in bargain - hunting. The bond market is slightly adjusted [2][3]. - Precious metals are supported by safe - haven sentiment, and their prices are expected to continue rising due to factors such as the US government shutdown, Fed's dovish remarks, and Sino - US trade tensions [4][5]. - Copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level due to increased macro - disturbances and a tight supply at the mine end [6][7]. - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain an oscillating and favorable pattern as inventory is likely to be reduced again [8]. - Alumina prices are under pressure in the short term due to high domestic production capacity and expected arrival of imported alumina [9]. - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to tense trade situations, weak downstream consumption, and a cooling export expectation [10]. - Lead prices face increasing pressure as LME inventories rise, domestic supply eases, and consumption shows limited improvement [11]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate at a high level and show strong resilience due to limited improvement in the raw - material end and low LME inventories [12][13]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate at a low level due to a loose supply pattern and insufficient downstream demand [14][15]. - Lithium prices are expected to oscillate as there is a game between bulls and bears, with inventory pressure and uncertain technical signals [16][17]. - Steel and iron ore prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to weak market sentiment, high supply pressure, and uncertain demand [18][19]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to the repeated Sino - US game sentiment and other factors [20][21]. - Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate widely due to trade uncertainties, changes in import and export volumes, and Indonesia's plan to increase export taxes [23][24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: US officials responded to China's expanded rare - earth export control, and the Fed's Milan called for accelerating interest - rate cuts. US stocks rose, the dollar index fell to 98.6, the 10Y US Treasury yield dropped to 4.0%, gold prices exceeded $4200 per ounce, copper prices rose, and oil prices fell [2]. - Domestic: In September, CPI's year - on - year decline narrowed to 0.3%, core CPI returned to 1% for the first time in 19 months, and PPI's year - on - year decline narrowed to 2.3%. New social financing in September was 3.53 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed to the lowest point of the year. A - shares rebounded on low volume, and the bond market was slightly adjusted [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - On Wednesday, international precious - metal futures prices rose. COMEX gold futures rose 1.48% to $4224.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 3.76% to $52.53 per ounce. Factors such as the extended US government shutdown, dovish remarks from the Fed, and Sino - US trade tensions supported the price increase. The market expects interest - rate cuts in October and December. It is expected that precious - metal prices will continue to rise [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai copper stopped falling and stabilized, and LME copper oscillated at night. The domestic near - month contract turned to a B structure, and the spot market trading improved. After the holiday, it entered a new restocking cycle. The LME inventory dropped to 138,000 tons. Due to macro - disturbances and a tight supply at the mine end, copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,910 yuan per ton, down 0.1%. After the holiday, the arrival of aluminum ingots was less, and restocking was active. It is expected that the inventory will be reduced again this week, and aluminum prices will maintain an oscillating and favorable pattern [8]. 3.5 Alumina - On Wednesday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2797 yuan per ton, down 0.36%. Due to high domestic production capacity and expected arrival of imported alumina, alumina prices are under pressure in the short term [9]. 3.6 Zinc - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated narrowly during the day and moved horizontally at night. Due to tense trade situations, weak downstream consumption, and a cooling export expectation, zinc prices are expected to oscillate weakly [10]. 3.7 Lead - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated strongly during the day and horizontally at night. With the continuous increase in LME inventories, the easing of domestic supply, and limited improvement in consumption, lead prices face increasing pressure [11]. 3.8 Tin - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai tin oscillated narrowly during the day and its center of gravity moved down at night. Due to limited improvement in the raw - material end and low LME inventories, tin prices are expected to oscillate at a high level and show strong resilience [12][13]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - On Wednesday, industrial silicon oscillated strongly. Due to a loose supply pattern and insufficient downstream demand, industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [14][15]. 3.10 Carbonate Lithium - On Wednesday, carbonate - lithium prices oscillated weakly. There is a game between bulls and bears in the market, with inventory pressure and uncertain technical signals. Lithium prices are expected to oscillate [16][17]. 3.11 Steel and Iron Ore - On Wednesday, steel futures were weak. Spot trading was at a low level, and terminal demand was weak. Supply pressure increased, and steel prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Iron - ore futures oscillated. The supply increased, and the demand had limited upward space. Iron - ore prices are expected to oscillate and adjust [18][19]. 3.12 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Wednesday, the bean - meal 01 contract rose 0.17% to 2917 yuan per ton, and the rapeseed - meal 01 contract fell 0.51% to 2357 yuan per ton. Due to the repeated Sino - US game sentiment, bean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate weakly [20][21]. 3.13 Palm Oil - On Wednesday, the palm - oil 01 contract fell 0.47% to 9322 yuan per ton. India's palm - oil imports in September dropped to the lowest level since May, while Malaysia's palm - oil exports in the first half of October increased. Indonesia plans to increase the export tax on crude palm oil from 10% to 15%. Palm - oil prices are expected to oscillate widely [23][24].

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing increased volatility and differentiation, with a cautious short-term outlook but positive long-term fundamentals for the stock market [1] Domestic Macroeconomics - The macroeconomic environment is under pressure, with ongoing profitability recovery and continued liquidity easing [2] - Industrial profits saw a significant year-on-year increase of 20.4% in August, the highest growth rate since December 2023, driven by low base effects and policy changes [2] - Micro liquidity remains ample, supporting the market, while macro liquidity continues to be loose, with no immediate expectations for interest rate cuts unless external conditions change [2] Market Outlook - The current market rally is supported by long-term narratives, but the sources of incremental capital appear insufficient [3] - Key upcoming events include the Fourth Plenary Session and the China-US summit, which may boost market sentiment and create investment opportunities [3] Equity Investment - The stock market's underlying fundamentals are improving in the long term, but the short-term outlook is cautious due to declining valuation attractiveness [4] - Focus on low-value and cyclical sectors such as real estate, new energy, and high ROE large-cap companies, while being cautious of risks in strong sectors [4] - Key sectors to watch include technology, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with a focus on structural opportunities [4] Fixed Income Investment - The bond market is not expected to enter a sustained bear market, with credit bonds still offering spread value [5][6] - The 10-year government bond yield rose from 1.65% to 1.86%, with a potential for further fluctuations due to market conditions [5] - Credit bonds are expected to follow market trends without independent bullish movements, but there may be some recovery potential after short-term adjustments [6] Global Asset Allocation - Uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies remains high, leading to a preference for global diversification [7] - Short-term opportunities are seen in US stocks and bonds, but macroeconomic volatility may increase [7] - Continued focus on structural opportunities in the US AI sector and real estate recovery during the interest rate cut cycle [7] Hong Kong and Other Markets - The Hong Kong market is viewed positively due to liquidity catalysts and structural opportunities, though domestic and overseas influences must be monitored [8] - There is optimism for Japan's market to emerge from deflation and enter a phase of sticky service inflation [8] - Gold is favored as a hedge against fiscal and equity market risks, with strong potential for growth [8]