1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Rebound [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillation [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Rebound [2] - Glass: Rebound [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] - CSI 50: Rebound [2] - CSI 300: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500: Uptrend [4] - CSI 1000: Uptrend [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Rebound [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Pulp: Oscillation [5] - Logs: Oscillation [5] - Soybean oil: High-level oscillation [5] - Palm oil: High-level oscillation [5] - Rapeseed oil: High-level oscillation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillation [7] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation [7] - No. 2 soybeans: Oscillation [7] - No. 1 soybeans: Oscillation with a downward bias [7] - Live pigs: Rebound [7] - Rubber: Rebound [9] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Try shorting on rallies [9] - MEG: Try shorting on rallies [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - The iron ore market shows short - term sentiment - driven fluctuations, but the medium - and long - term supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged [2]. - The coking coal and coke market is affected by supply - side reform news and production resumption, with the supply expected to increase and the demand to weaken [2]. - The rebar and hot - rolled coil market rebounds due to production reduction policy speculation and supply - side reform news, but the overall demand is weak [2]. - The glass market has no substantial positive factors, with inventory at a high level and demand expected to weaken [2]. - The stock index futures and options market shows different trends among different indices, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices considering economic resilience and reduced market risk aversion [2][4]. - The Treasury bond market has a narrow - range rebound, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4]. - The precious metals market, especially gold, is affected by multiple factors such as central bank gold purchases, interest rate policies, and trade policies, and is expected to remain in high - level oscillation [4]. - The pulp and log markets show different supply - demand situations, with pulp having a supply - demand double - weak pattern and logs having increasing supply pressure [5]. - The oil and fat market is affected by factors such as production, export policies, and supply - demand relationships, and is expected to be in high - level oscillation [5]. - The soybean meal and related products market is affected by factors such as planting area, weather, and trade relations, and is expected to be in an oscillatory state [7]. - The live pig market has a short - term upward trend due to supply - side factors and increased downstream demand [7]. - The rubber market is affected by supply - side weather conditions and demand - side capacity utilization, and is expected to have a wide - range oscillatory trend [9]. - The polyester - related product market has different trends, with some products following cost fluctuations and some facing supply - demand changes [9]. 3. Summaries According to Related Categories Black Industry - **Iron ore**: The recent price is affected by sentiment. The global shipment and arrival volume have declined but are still at a high level in recent years. There is an expectation of increased shipment later, and the port inventory is in the process of destocking. In the medium - and long - term, the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is recommended to exit short positions and wait and see [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Affected by supply - side reform news and production resumption, the supply is expected to increase. The coke price is under pressure from steel mills, and the inventory pressure of coking enterprises has increased [2]. - **Rebar and hot - rolled coil**: Due to production reduction policy speculation and supply - side reform news, the supply is expected to shrink, and the price rebounds. However, the overall demand is weak, and the total demand is difficult to show an inverse - seasonal performance [2]. - **Glass**: There is no substantial positive factor, with high inventory and expected weakening demand. The short - term valuation is relatively low, and the price is affected by sentiment [2]. Financial Sector - **Stock index futures/options**: Different indices show different trends. The inflow and outflow of funds in different sectors are different. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices considering economic resilience and reduced market risk aversion [2][4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The market has a narrow - range rebound, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4]. Precious Metals - **Gold and silver**: Affected by central bank gold purchases, interest rate policies, trade policies, and geopolitical risks, the gold market is expected to remain in high - level oscillation, and the price of silver is also in a high - level oscillatory state [4]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: The cost support weakens, the demand is in the off - season, and the supply - demand pattern is double - weak. The price is expected to oscillate [5]. - **Logs**: The arrival volume is expected to increase, the supply pressure rises, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the impact of the first log futures delivery [5]. Oil and Fats - **Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil**: Affected by production, export policies, and supply - demand relationships, the inventory continues to rise, and the market is expected to be in high - level oscillation [5]. Oilseeds and Meals - **Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, No. 2 soybeans, and No. 1 soybeans**: Affected by factors such as planting area, weather, and trade relations, the market is expected to be in an oscillatory state, and different products have different influencing factors [7]. Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The supply - side support is strong, the downstream demand increases, and the price is expected to continue rising [7]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Affected by supply - side weather conditions and demand - side capacity utilization, the inventory shows different trends, and the price is expected to have a wide - range oscillatory trend [9]. Polyester Products - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF**: Different products have different supply - demand situations. Some follow cost fluctuations, some face supply - demand weakening, and some are affected by downstream inventory and raw material prices, with corresponding trading suggestions [9].

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20250707："反内卷"情绪推动，硅系价格强势上行 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 近期趋势 2025/7/7 | 指标 | 单位 | 今值 | 变动 | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 8,500.00 | 1.19% | | 工业硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 7,980.00 | -0.37% | | 元/吨 | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | | 520.00 | 130.00 | | 元/千克 | N型多晶硅料 | | 34.50 | 0.00% | | 多晶硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 35,510.00 | 1.31% | | -1,010.00 | 基差 | 元/吨 | | -460.00 | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 8,500.00 | 1.19% | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | | 8,500.00 | 1.19% | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 | | 8,4 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the potential for an "anti-involution" trend in the industry, which is expected to improve the nominal economic growth rate that has been weak [1][2] - The report discusses the recent meeting of the Central Financial Committee, emphasizing the need to address chaotic low-price competition and promote product quality [2] - The "anti-involution" movement is anticipated to boost prices from the supply side, thereby alleviating the current weak nominal economic growth situation [2] Market Update - The report notes that weak pricing has been a significant drag on the fundamentals, particularly the nominal economic growth rate [2] - Since October 2022, the Producer Price Index (PPI) has been below zero for 32 consecutive months, similar to the period from 2012 to 2016 when supply-side reforms helped PPI recover [2] - The report suggests that the "anti-involution" actions taken by various industries, such as solar and automotive, could lead to short-term positive factors for related domestic demand sectors [2] Short-term Trading Opportunities - The report indicates that the current market environment is conducive to a short-term trading rally in cyclical stocks, given the low valuations and the recent actions taken by companies to limit production [2] - It is noted that the market has been performing well across several sectors, including technology and consumer goods, which may lead to a rotation into cyclical stocks [2] Observations on Style Switching - The report expresses caution regarding the sustainability of the style switch, drawing parallels to the economic environment of 2013-2015 [2] - It suggests that while PPI may stabilize in the second half of the year, a strong upward trend is unlikely, and the recovery of fundamentals will require further observation [2] - The report emphasizes that the current cycle is nearing a mid-cycle point, with potential inventory destocking by year-end, and the effectiveness of policy implementation remains to be seen [2]

锌周报 2025 年 7 月 7 日 累库缓慢兑现 锌价震荡偏弱 核心观点及策略 上周沪锌主力期价窄幅震荡。宏观面看，美越关税协议达 成，美欧关税谈判取得进展，同时美国大美丽法案通过， 国内官方 PMI 数据环比回升，且供应侧改革预期升温，宏 观情绪偏好。但周五公布的 6 月非农就业数据超预期，美 联储 7 月降息预期减弱，美元企稳，锌价上方压力略增。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kxj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/ 8 基本面看，此前因罢工停 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing supply-side reform aimed at the orderly exit of backward production capacity, marking a significant policy shift from self-regulation to higher-level government intervention [6][7] - The market is expected to experience a "pulse-like" behavior due to unclear demand-side conditions, contrasting with the more robust demand seen during the 2016 supply-side reforms [7][9] - There is a notable focus on the differentiation between "old industries" (e.g., steel, coal, cement) and "new industries" (e.g., new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, photovoltaic sectors), with a recommendation to prioritize sectors with external demand [7][8] Market Performance - The report provides a snapshot of market indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3472.32, reflecting a 0.32% increase, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.25% [4] - The banking sector showed a strong performance with a 1.84% increase, while the beauty care sector declined by 1.87% [5] Industry Analysis - The report indicates a marginal recovery in production and demand expectations for June, with the PMI showing slight improvement, suggesting a potential stabilization in industrial profits [9][10] - It highlights that the price pressures are expected to ease, and inventory levels are likely to remain resilient, indicating a positive outlook for the second half of the year [9][10] - The report suggests that the profitability factors are anticipated to improve, with a focus on high profitability, small-cap, and high-valuation stocks expected to outperform in the coming month [10]

Core Viewpoint - The MSCI China Index has seen a significant increase of 32% over the past year, with an 18% rise year-to-date, returning to its 20-year average P/E ratio of 11.5 times, close to the average of 11.9 times, prompting questions about the sustainability of this upward trend. JPMorgan identifies three main factors supporting a positive outlook for Chinese stocks, particularly in the internet and consumer sectors [1]. Group 1: Consumer Recovery - The recovery of Chinese consumption is a key theme for the second half of 2025, with retail sales growth averaging 5.4% since 2023, compared to 9-10% pre-COVID, but recent signs indicate a rebound [2]. - An increase in consumption will improve the current supply-demand balance, alleviate deflationary pressures, and enhance corporate pricing power and profitability [2]. - Stocks to watch include Alibaba, Tencent, Beike, MGM China, Sands China, Anta, and China Resources Beer, as their EPS and FCF trends are beginning to recover, while their stock prices remain lagging and valuations attractive [3]. Group 2: Addressing Overcapacity - The Chinese government is taking steps to address supply-demand imbalances, particularly in the real estate sector, which has negatively impacted GDP growth by 2-2.5% annually over the past four years [5]. - The focus on upstream self-sufficiency has led to overcapacity in various sectors, with ongoing discussions about meaningful supply-side reforms [7]. - The industrial capacity utilization rate remains low, with high fixed asset investment in manufacturing contributing to this issue [7]. Group 3: Capital Costs and Equity Risk Premium - Despite the MSCI China Index's mean reversion, the equity risk premium (ERP) indicates that the Chinese stock market remains undervalued due to a significant decline in government bond yields [11]. - The ERP currently exceeds 7%, a historically high level, suggesting potential for compression if consumption improves and supply-demand balance is restored [12]. - The low interest rates and expected continued decline in rates may lead to a rotation from high-dividend stocks to undervalued growth stocks as net asset returns improve [13].

#报告 花旗解读中国供给侧改革2.0，预测具体措施以及所涉及的行业。None (@None):None ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market misinterprets the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting as a new round of supply - side reform in the upstream of the industrial chain, but the actual target is anti - involution in the downstream manufacturing sector, so the price increase may not be sustainable [2]. - The real estate market is still in the process of bottom - building, and the economic data in May was slightly below expectations while the PMI data in June improved month - on - month. The current state of the steel market is weak supply and demand, and with the arrival of high - temperature weather, demand will further weaken and inventory is expected to rise slightly [2]. - Currently, the iron ore market is affected by factors such as the decline in steel mill iron - water production, high global shipments, and high proportion of trade ore inventory, but in the short term, it may maintain a slightly stronger oscillatory trend driven by the price increase of products like rebar and glass [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Situation**: The market misinterprets the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting. The real estate market is bottom - building, economic data in May was slightly below expectations, and PMI in June improved. The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and demand will weaken with high - temperature weather [2]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: This week, rebar production increased, factory inventory decreased, social inventory increased, and total inventory decreased slightly. Apparent demand rebounded slightly month - on - month. The 247 - steel - mill average daily iron - water volume decreased by 1.44 million tons (- 0.59%) compared to last week, and the national building materials steel mill rebar production increased by 3.24 million tons (1.49%) [2][3]. - **Price Data**: The rebar steel main contract closing price was 3072 yuan/ton, up 2.57% from last week; the hot - rolled coil main contract closing price was 3201 yuan/ton, up 2.56% from last week. The rebar spot price in Shanghai increased by 2.92% from last week, and the hot - rolled coil spot price increased by 1.88% [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, consider short - term long positions after a pullback, and be cautious when chasing up [2]. II. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Steel mill profitability is acceptable, but iron - water production is expected to decline further. Global shipments are at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. Port inventory decline has slowed down, and the high proportion of trade ore inventory exerts pressure on futures prices. In the short term, it may maintain a slightly stronger oscillatory trend [5]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: Last week, the 247 - steel - mill iron - water production exceeded 2.409 billion tons, a decrease of 150 million tons compared to the previous week. Australian iron ore shipments were 1.7306 billion tons, and Brazilian iron ore shipments were 776.7 million tons, a decrease of 9.52% [5][6]. - **Price Data**: The DCE iron ore main contract settlement price was 732.5 yuan/dry ton, up 2.23% from last week; the SGX iron ore continuous - one settlement price was 95.85 US dollars/dry ton, up 3.35% from last week [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, consider short - term long positions after a pullback, and be cautious when chasing up [5]. III. Industry News - In late June 2025, the national daily average crude steel production was 2.75 million tons, a decrease of 0.9% month - on - month; the daily average pig iron production was 2.38 million tons, an increase of 0.3% month - on - month; the daily average steel production was 4.21 million tons, an increase of 1.3% month - on - month. The steel inventory of key steel enterprises decreased by 4.7% [8]. - As of July 4, the total iron ore inventory in 35 ports reached 137.13 million tons, an increase of 210,000 tons from last week. The average daily import ore handling volume decreased by 45,000 tons from last week [8]. - The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate was 83.46%, a decrease of 0.36 percentage points from last week. The average daily iron - water production was 2.4085 million tons, a decrease of 1.44 million tons from last week. The total import iron ore inventory in 45 ports decreased by 518,300 tons [8]. - This week, the urban total inventory was 7.2366 million tons, an increase of 81,400 tons (+1.14%) from last week. The building steel inventory was 3.7507 million tons, an increase of 47,600 tons (+1.29%) from last week [8].

专题报告 2025-07-07 橡胶：多头争雄谁领先？ 报告要点： 张正华 橡胶研究员 从业资格号：F0270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-23982459 zhangzh@wkqh.cn 我们认为，2025 年反内卷政策是影响商品市场的重要事件。 回顾历史，供给侧改革导致 2016 年焦炭涨幅 141.73%；焦煤涨幅 109.08%；铁矿涨幅 68.79%；螺纹涨幅 60.38%；玻璃涨幅 46.58%；金属，化工，贵金属等板块均普涨。 2025 年 7 月 1 日，中央财经委员会第六次会议召开，明确要求依法治理企业低价无序 竞争，推动落后产能有序退出，释放国家层面"反内卷"政策新信号。 我们发现，涨幅领先品种需要天时地利人和，多因素共振。 2016 年逻辑上最通顺的煤炭钢铁涨幅最大，后续配套政策频繁发布，基本面，政策面， 资金面，技术面，全面共振，众望所归。选择直接受益品种是最佳策略。即使是不直接 受益供给侧改革品种，市场也会以其他各种因素补涨。但涨幅差异比较大。 时间上看，反应最灵敏最先涨的品种不一定涨幅大。 沪铜沪铝反应最快，对宏观反应灵敏，但总体涨幅相对比较小。 焦炭的涨幅最大， ...

Group 1: Price and Basis - The market sentiment has improved due to expectations of "capacity reduction and anti-involution," leading to a significant increase in futures prices and a weakening basis, with rebar futures trading at a premium to spot prices and hot-rolled coil futures at a discount [1] Group 2: Costs and Profits - On the cost side, the resumption of production in Shanxi's coking coal is expected to increase supply; iron ore shipments in June have surged, leading to a slight increase in iron ore inventory [1] - Current profit margins are shrinking, with the order of profitability from high to low being billet > hot-rolled coil > rebar > cold-rolled coil [1] Group 3: Supply - Overall production is showing a slight decline, with June iron element production decreasing by 65,000 tons compared to May, including a drop of 45,000 tons in pig iron and 20,000 tons in scrap steel [1] - The production of the five major materials increased by 40,000 tons to 8.85 million tons, with rebar production up by 33,000 tons to 2.21 million tons and hot-rolled coil production up by 9,000 tons to 3.28 million tons [1] Group 4: Demand - The apparent demand for the five major materials has stabilized at a high level, with a slight increase of 54,000 tons to 8.85 million tons; however, the production of these materials has decreased by 1.3% year-on-year [2] - Domestic demand remains weak despite export growth, and inventory levels are at seasonal lows, with June steel supply and demand being roughly balanced [2] Group 5: Inventory - Current inventory levels are at seasonal lows, with a year-on-year decrease; the five major materials inventory decreased slightly by 1,000 tons to 13.4 million tons [2] - Rebar inventory decreased by 40,000 tons to 5.45 million tons, while hot-rolled coil inventory increased by 40,000 tons to 3.45 million tons [2] Group 6: Market Outlook - The market sentiment has improved following the sixth Central Financial Committee's mention of "anti-involution," with expectations of supply-side reforms reminiscent of 2015-2018 [2] - Short-term steel supply and demand are balanced, with manageable inventory pressure; despite expectations of weaker demand in the second half of the year, supply contraction expectations are likely to dominate market sentiment [2] - Steel prices are expected to return to the previous fluctuation range, with hot-rolled coil futures projected to fluctuate between 3,150 and 3,300, and rebar between 3,050 and 3,150 [2]