【黄金期货行情表现】 12月9日，沪金主力暂报951.54元/克，跌幅达0.92%，今日沪金主力开盘价958.04元/克，截至目前最高 958.50元/克，最低949.00元/克。 【宏观消息】 美联储将于周二、周三召开议息会议，并于周三（北京时间周四凌晨3点）公布议息决定。目前市场普 遍认为，近期美国就业市场数据疲软，美联储很可能再度降息25个基点。 【机构观点】 英国、法国、德国以及乌克兰领导人在英国伦敦举行会晤。乌克兰总统泽连斯基会后表示，乌克兰和欧 洲即将完成对旨在结束俄乌冲突的"和平计划"的修改，并将在完成后提交给美国。根据英国方面公布的 消息，此次会晤围绕俄乌冲突和平进程和美国提出的"和平计划"展开讨论。各方一致强调，现在是关键 时刻，任何和平方案必须保障乌克兰的领土完整，提供切实的安全保障，避免单方面让步。各方同意继 续加强欧洲、乌克兰与美国之间的战略合作。 昨日金价震荡走弱，纽约金下探4200美元关口，沪金下探950元关口。11月下旬以来金价上行的动力主 要来自于美联储降息预期持续升温，美元指数高位回落。短期市场对美联储降息预期计价较为充分，而 市场风险偏好回升使金价承压。临近美联储12月议息 ...

基 金 研 究 ETF 基金周报（20251201-20251205）： 中证 A500 类 ETF 基金获资金青睐 2025 年 12 月 9 日 投资要点 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 S0340521010001 基金从业资格证书编号： F4520000001431 电话：0769-26628039 邮箱：lirong@dgzq.com.cn 证 券 研 究 报 告 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，Wind 资讯 ETF 基金周报 1.各类 ETF 基金平均收益及资金流动概览 各类ETF基金周度平均收益及资金流动概览：本周全球权益市场整体偏 强，美国三大股指全线收涨，港股市场整体亦表现较好，而欧洲市场相 对疲弱。国内市场方面，权益市场整体震荡上行，多数宽基金指数录得 上涨。映射在ETF基金上，各类型EF基金中仅债券型ETF基金周度平均收 益为负。本周ETF基金资金净流入209.88亿元，各类型ETF基金均出现不 同程度净流入。12月是今年金融机构业绩考核、收益排名的最后一个月， 也是明年开门 ...

Group 1 - The main aluminum futures contract in Shanghai closed at 21,775.00 CNY/ton, experiencing a decline of 1.67% [1] - In the first week of December 2025, Brazil exported a total of 0.05 million tons of aluminum ore and aluminum concentrate, a significant decrease from 31.96 million tons in December of the previous year [2] - The daily shipping volume averaged 0.01 million tons per day, down 99.3% compared to 1.52 million tons per day in December of the previous year [2] Group 2 - The Chongqing Ecological Environment Bureau issued a yellow alert for heavy pollution, requiring industrial enterprises to reduce production loads, suspend operations, and enhance pollution control measures [2] - As a result of the pollution alert, some recycled aluminum companies have begun to suspend operations or reduce production loads [2] - The price range for remelted aluminum ingots (Al99.7) was 21,860-21,900 CNY/ton, with an average price of 21,880 CNY/ton, down 40 CNY/ton from the previous day [2] Group 3 - Dongwu Futures noted that macroeconomic factors are dominating, with expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December and a weakening dollar boosting non-ferrous metal prices, including aluminum [3] - The current market is characterized by subdued trading activity, with high prices and seasonal demand weakness leading to a focus on essential purchases by downstream enterprises [3] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity remains stable, and while demand is in a seasonal lull, the resilience of end-user consumption and low inventory levels provide strong support for aluminum prices [3] Group 4 - Zhongcai Futures highlighted that the consensus in the market is leaning towards a continued rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with significant declines in private employment data and ongoing contraction in manufacturing PMI reinforcing expectations for policy shifts [3] - The London aluminum market continues to see inventory reductions, with Shanghai aluminum showing a decrease of 0.2 million tons compared to the previous week, indicating relatively strong performance [3] - However, due to the current off-season, high prices may exert pressure on demand, and further price increases could face resistance, with attention on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting [3]

12月9日，沪指、深成指震荡回落，创业板指冲高回落尾盘拉升。截至收盘，沪指跌0.37%，深成指跌0.39%，创业板指涨0.61%。沪深两市成交额1.92万 亿，较上一个交易日缩量1339亿。全市场超4000只个股下跌。 | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 北证50 | | --- | --- | --- | | 3909.52 | 13277.36 | 1401.73 | | -14.56 -0.37% -52.63 -0.39% -24.51 -1.72% | | | | 科创50 | 创业板指 | 万得全A | | 1347.11 | 3209.60 | 6280.71 | | -3.69 -0.27% +19.33 +0.61% -34.77 -0.55% | | | | 沪深300 | 中证500 | 中证A500 | | 4598.22 | 7121.33 | 5530.03 | | -23.53 -0.51% -51.04 -0.71% -31.33 -0.56% | | | | 中证1000 | 深证100 | 中证红利 | | 7380.58 | 5854.07 | 5476.84 | | -42 ...

Group 1 - Domestic gold prices remain stable, with most brands maintaining their prices, except for Chow Sang Sang, which decreased by 2 yuan per gram [1] - The price range for gold today is consistent with yesterday, remaining at 96 yuan per gram [1] - Platinum jewelry prices have seen a slight increase, with Chow Sang Sang's platinum price rising by 3 yuan per gram to 669 yuan per gram [1] Group 2 - The gold recycling price has dropped by 4.2 yuan per gram, with significant price differences among brands [2] - The current gold recycling price is 938.80 yuan per gram, with variations across different brands [2] Group 3 - International spot gold prices experienced fluctuations, peaking at 4218.70 USD per ounce before closing at 4189.06 USD per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.21% [4] - As of the latest update, spot gold is reported at 4175.36 USD per ounce, down by 0.33% [4] - The recent price movements are attributed to strengthened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and a strong dollar, leading some investors to take profits [4] - The fundamentals for gold remain strong, supported by ongoing purchases from central banks, which are expected to provide long-term price support [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Copper is likely to continue its strong performance in the future due to the siphoning effect of US stockpiling, a planned 10% joint production cut by domestic copper smelters in 2026 to address tight copper ore supply, stable demand, and the possibility of a Fed rate cut in December [11] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Markets - On Tuesday, the LME copper price adjusted at a high level. On Wednesday, December 3, 2025, the Shanghai copper price slightly adjusted. The closing price of the main 2601 contract was 89,210 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan/ton or 0.33% from the previous trading day. Micro-positive news needs to be realized, and the copper price is adjusting at a high level [1] - Today, the domestic spot copper was at a premium of 90 - 220 yuan/ton to the December futures contract. The procurement sentiment in the spot market was average, with downstream buyers purchasing on demand. The limited supply of holders, combined with the backwardation structure of the futures spread, supported the firm increase in the spot premium [1] - Today, the refined - scrap price difference of bright copper in major Chinese markets rebounded, with 3,465 yuan/ton in Guangdong and 3,354 yuan/ton in Tianjin [1] 2. Macro and Fundamentals - After the domestic market closed, LME copper inventory increased slightly by 750 tons to 162,150 tons, while the canceled warrants increased significantly by 50,575 tons to 56,875 tons, further confirming the siphoning effect of US copper demand [2] - The inventory data reveals the distortion of the global copper trade flow, which is the most direct pressure driving up copper prices in non - US regions. There is a "high in the US, low elsewhere" pattern, with US COMEX copper inventory as high as 418,700 short tons (about 380,000 metric tons), accounting for most of the world's exchange - visible inventory. In contrast, LME inventory is only 162,150 tons, and SHFE inventory has dropped to 97,900 tons, with China's social inventory at a relatively low level of 173,500 tons [2] - The core reason for this extreme differentiation is the market's expectation of US import tariffs on copper. Traders have transferred a large amount of inventory to the US in advance to avoid risks. As a result, a region accounting for only about 7% of global copper consumption has hoarded more than half of the world's visible inventory, leading to a sharp compression of deliverable inventory in non - US consumption regions, especially Asia, which has directly translated into "soft squeeze" pressure on the futures market and high spot premiums, driving up the prices of Shanghai and London copper [3] 3. Copper Futures Contract Quotes - The report provides detailed quotes of SHFE copper futures contracts from December 2025 to November 2026, including previous settlement prices, opening prices, high prices, low prices, closing prices, reference settlement prices, price changes, trading volumes, trading amounts, and positions/position changes [9]

两大基准原油合约周五收盘时均创下自11月18日以来的最高水平，本周一最终均收跌约2%。纽约商品 交易所1月交割的近月WTI原油期货收于每桶58.88美元，而2月交割的近月布伦特原油期货收于每桶 62.49美元，均创下自11月19日以来最大的美元和百分比跌幅。 原油期货价格周一创下近三周来最大跌幅，主要是由于伊拉克一处占全球石油供应0.5%的油田恢复生 产，而旨在结束乌克兰战争的和平协议目前看来仍遥不可及。市场观察人士称，对俄罗斯能源基础设施 的持续袭击正在推高风险溢价。 伊拉克能源官员称，该国日产量46万桶的西古尔纳2号油田在一条出口管道发生泄漏导致减产后，现已 恢复生产。 乌克兰和平谈判进展依然缓慢，尽管美国总统特朗普施压要求达成协议，但关于乌克兰安全保障以及俄 罗斯所占领土地位的争议仍未解决。"看跌的全球石油供需平衡仍在缓慢地转化为更明显的迹象，尤其 是在美国国内，"Ritterbusch分析师在一份报告中表示。"本周的交易不仅会受到关于乌克兰-俄罗斯和委 内瑞拉的、导致地缘风险波动的头条新闻影响，还将受到美联储利率决议的扰动，该决议将对石油产品 需求产生影响。" 市场预计美联储有86%的可能性降息25个 ...

截至12月8日，黄金ETF华夏近2年净值上涨99.23%。从收益能力看，截至2025年12月8日，黄金ETF华 夏自成立以来，最高单月回报为11.49%，最长连涨月数为6个月，最长连涨涨幅为16.34%，涨跌月数比 为43/24，上涨月份平均收益率为3.36%，年盈利百分比为75.00%，月盈利概率为63.45%，历史持有3年 盈利概率为99.54%。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 2025年12月9日，受美联储降息预期提前兑现且美联储热门候选人表态转鹰，金价延续回调，截至 10:45，黄金ETF华夏(518850)下跌0.53%，最新报价9.13元。有色金属ETF基金(516650)跌2.82%，黄金 股ETF(159562)跌2.87%。 统计显示，黄金ETF华夏(518850)近4天获得连续资金净流入，合计"吸金"4.05亿元。截止12月8日，产 品最新份额达11.23亿份，最新规模103.12亿，均创成立以来新高。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals and non-ferrous metals are showing strong performance in both international and domestic markets, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a weakening dollar [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Internationally, the price of spot silver in London has significantly surged, while prices for non-ferrous metals such as copper and aluminum on the LME are also on the rise [1] - The domestic market reflects a similar trend, with a predominance of price increases in precious and non-ferrous metals [1] Group 2: Investment Outlook - In the medium to long term, the price of gold is expected to trend upwards, suggesting that investors may consider participating during subsequent pullbacks and gradually accumulating positions [1] - Direct investment in physical gold and tax-exempt gold ETFs (518800) are recommended, along with gold stock ETFs (517400) that cover the entire gold industry chain [1]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal industry is experiencing volatility, with the CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Theme Index declining by 3.00% as of December 9, 2025, while the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF has seen fluctuations in trading volume and net inflows, indicating active market participation and potential investment opportunities [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Theme Index (000811) fell by 3.00%, with major stocks like Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) down 5.72% and China Aluminum (601600) down 5.41% [1]. - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) decreased by 3.24%, with a latest price of 1.52 yuan, but has shown a 2.74% increase over the past week, ranking in the top half among comparable funds [1]. - The trading volume for the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF was 3.27%, with a total transaction value of 113 million yuan, and an average daily transaction of 178 million yuan over the past week [1]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Liquidity - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF has seen a net subscription of 12 million units, with an estimated net subscription amount exceeding 18.3 million yuan based on the average transaction price [1]. - The latest fund inflow for the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF is 87.29 million yuan, with a total of 373 million yuan net inflow over the past five trading days, averaging 7.46 million yuan per day [3]. - The leverage funds are actively participating, with a net purchase of 4.66 million yuan in the previous trading day and a latest financing balance of 24.97 million yuan [3]. Group 3: Commodity Price Trends - Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have led to fluctuations in precious and base metal prices, with silver prices rising due to tight supply and increased liquidity expectations [4]. - Copper prices are anticipated to perform strongly due to low non-US inventories and a significant reduction in copper production guidance by Glencore for 2026 [4]. - Aluminum prices have reached new highs for the year, driven by positive macro sentiment, although seasonal demand may weaken in the near term [4]. Group 4: Sector Outlook - The non-ferrous metal sector is positioned for growth due to favorable monetary policies, rigid supply conditions, and new demand drivers, making the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF a compelling investment option [6]. - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF focuses on key strategic metals like copper, gold, aluminum, lithium, and rare earths, with a high concentration of leading companies, achieving a top five concentration of 38% [9]. - The index has shown superior performance since 2022, with a cumulative return leading its peers and a PE ratio of 23.74, indicating a reasonable valuation compared to historical levels [11].