贝莱德在第三季度固定收益展望报告中表示，“我们已经关注美国政府债务问题的危险处境有一段时间了。如果这种情况继续得不到控制，我们认为债务将成为美国在金融市场中所享有的‘特殊地位’面临的最大风险。”公共债务增加可能会降低美国长期国债收益率走势与美国货币政策之间的关联性，尽管美联储降息，收益率仍将上升。美国国债供应增加，可能会面临美联储以及外国央行需求下降的局面。这表明应当将投资多元化，减少对美国公债市场的依赖，同时增加对短期美债的配置，因为短期美债在降息时可能会受益。“尽管政府提议削减开支，但赤字仍在攀升，而且现在更多的支出都用于支付利息。”“随着外国投资者退出，政府每周发行超过5000亿美元的债务，民间市场无法吸收这些债务，从而推高政府借贷成本的风险是切实存在的。” ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global risk preference continues to rise due to the weakening US dollar index, with expectations of Fed rate - cuts and positive developments in trade agreements. In China, economic growth is accelerating, and consumption - stimulating policies are boosting domestic risk preference. Different asset classes have different short - term trends: stocks may have a short - term oscillatory rebound, treasury bonds may remain high and oscillatory, and various commodity sectors have their own specific trends [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas, Trump urges the Fed to ease monetary policy, and Fed official Bostic expects rate cuts. The US dollar index falls, and global risk preference rises. Domestically, China's June manufacturing PMI is 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, and consumption - stimulating policies are introduced. Stocks may have a short - term oscillatory rebound, treasury bonds may be high and oscillatory, and different commodity sectors have different trends [2]. Stock Index - Supported by sectors like military, gaming, and semiconductors, the domestic stock market rises. China's economic growth is accelerating, and consumption - stimulating policies boost domestic risk preference. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and trade negotiations. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold is supported by a weak US dollar but is under downward pressure due to a weakening of the market's risk - aversion sentiment. The US economic data is weak, and Powell's dovish stance supports the gold price. In the short - term, gold may be oscillatory and weak, but its safe - haven property remains strong [4]. Black Metals Steel - The steel spot market rebounds, but the futures price rises and then falls. Policy is favorable, but traders face poor sales, and the cost support weakens. Supply remains high, and steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range [5]. Iron Ore - The iron ore price is stable. Demand remains resilient as steel mills' profits are high and iron - water production is expected to stay high. Supply may fall after the peak shipping season. Iron ore prices may oscillate in the short - term and may decline in the medium - term [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are flat. Demand is okay as steel production rises. The prices of these ferroalloys are expected to oscillate in the short - term [6]. Chemicals Soda Ash - The soda ash price is weak. Supply is abundant, demand is low, and profits are decreasing. In the long - term, the high - supply, high - inventory, and low - demand situation persists, and short positions can be held [7]. Glass - The glass price is weak. Supply is stable, demand is weak due to the poor real - estate market. It is expected to be weak and oscillatory in the short - term [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Trump's tariff hints and high production, potential weakening demand, and inventory slowdown are factors. The price may fall when certain conditions are met. Attention should be paid to US trade negotiations and potential copper tariffs [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate falls. Downstream demand slows, but the supply side shows some changes. The market is in a loose situation, and opportunities may come after a rebound [9]. Aluminum - The LME inventory increases, and domestic aluminum products are accumulating inventory. The de - stocking inflection point has arrived, and the price may be affected [9]. Aluminum Alloy - It is in the off - season, but tight scrap - aluminum supply supports the price. It may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside is limited [9]. Tin - Supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season. The price may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside will be restricted in the medium - term [9]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Oil prices fall due to speculation of OPEC+ production increase and the easing of Middle - East supply concerns. It will continue to be weakly oscillatory [11]. Asphalt - The asphalt price is strongly oscillatory as oil prices are low. Inventory is being depleted, and it will follow the oil price in the short - term [11]. PX - PX has strong cost support but faces uncertainties from falling oil prices. It will follow the oil price and oscillate strongly [11]. PTA - The demand for PTA may remain low in the long - term. The price's upside is limited [12]. Ethylene Glycol - The price center falls with oil prices, and the downstream demand is weak. The price may oscillate [12]. Short - fiber - Short - fiber inventory is high, and the price will decline as the cost falls. It will follow the cost and oscillate weakly [12]. Methanol - The methanol price is supported by maintenance and low imports but is suppressed by factors like high inventory and poor downstream profits. It will oscillate strongly [12]. PP - The PP price is expected to oscillate weakly due to high production, low demand, and geopolitical support [12]. LLDPE - The LLDPE price will oscillate weakly as supply increases and demand is in the off - season [14]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The US 2025 soybean planting area estimate is lower than expected, with different trends for different contract months [15]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the market sentiment is weak. The weak basis situation is expected to continue, but stable US soybean prices provide some support [16]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - The supply of soybean oil is abundant, and inventory is recovering seasonally. The supply of rapeseed oil is improving. Both may be under pressure [17]. Palm Oil - The domestic palm oil inventory is increasing, and it is expected to continue to weaken due to factors like the end of policy benefits and a slowdown in exports [18]. Corn - The corn spot price is strong, but the futures price is weak. After the wheat substitution season, the corn price is likely to rise [18]. Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs rebounds as group - farms reduce出栏. The demand is weak, but the price has some resilience. Attention should be paid to the epidemic risk in North China [19].

新西兰银行现预计新西兰联储将在7月份暂停降息。 ...

大家好啊，7月开始了！希望这个月对咱们基民股民都好一点，一起关注一下海内外的市场消息。 美联储降息新消息 6月30日，亚特兰大联邦储备银行行长拉斐尔·博斯蒂克表示，关税可能会对价格产生渐进式影响，而不是一次性冲击，这可能导致对通胀 的上行压力更为持久。 博斯蒂克在一场活动上表示："这种风险会渗透到消费者和企业领导者的心理上。" 博斯蒂克表示，他在今年的预测中只写入了一次降息，2026年则预计有三次降息，但他也表示这些预测存在高度不确定性。 博斯蒂克重申，目前没有足够的信息可以支撑调整利率的决定。他补充说，美联储拥有等待更多信息的"奢侈"，因为美国劳动力市场仍然 表现稳健。 美联储官员之间已经出现了分歧，主要集中在如何看待关税对通胀的影响。 本月早些时候美联储政策会议发布的预测显示，有10位官员认为应当忽略关税带来的价格影响，预计今年至少会降息两次。但有7位官员预 计今年不会降息，显示他们更担心关税可能导致更持久的价格压力。 【导读】美联储博斯蒂克维持今年一次降息展望，美股震荡上涨 他补充说，越来越多的企业报告称，他们可能要到2026年才能敲定最终的关税应对策略，因此关税对增长和价格的影响"可能会比许多人预 期 ...

Domestic News - The Ministry of Commerce announced that starting from July 1, 2025, anti-dumping duties will continue to be imposed on imports of stainless steel billets and stainless steel hot-rolled sheets/strips originating from the EU, UK, South Korea, and Indonesia, with a duration of 5 years [1]. International News - China's dual aircraft carriers successfully completed long-range combat training [3]. - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued a new batch of QDII quotas totaling $3.08 billion [3]. - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs indicated a conditional resumption of seafood imports from certain regions of Japan [3]. - Policies aimed at further deepening financial services for new industrialization are expected to be researched and introduced [3]. - The Ministry of Commerce expressed strong dissatisfaction and firm opposition to the Canadian government's closure of Hikvision's operations in Canada [3]. - The Ministry of Finance stated that foreign investors can offset 10% of the corresponding tax amount based on their investment amount if they invest directly from distributed profits [3]. - Citigroup projected that the supply gap in the gold market is expected to peak in Q3 2025, followed by a gradual decline due to decreased investment demand [3]. - Federal Reserve's Bostic maintained the expectation of one rate cut this year and three rate cuts next year [3]. - Reports indicated that U.S. President Trump will sign an executive order on Monday to ease sanctions on Syria [3]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Basant mentioned a wave of trade agreements is expected to be signed in the final week before the July 9 deadline [3]. - President Trump anticipated that due to low oil prices, Ukraine may reach a ceasefire agreement with Russia [3].

Group 1 - The US stock market saw all three major indices rise, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 reaching new historical highs, as of June 30 [1] - In the Chinese concept stock sector, Beike fell over 3%, while Meituan, BOSS Zhipin, and Weibo dropped over 2%, and JD and Xpeng Motors declined over 1% [1] - Nvidia's stock reached a new high, but insiders sold over $1 billion worth of shares in the past 12 months, indicating potential concerns about the stock's future performance [6] Group 2 - The US Senate is set to vote on the "Big and Beautiful" bill on June 30, with results expected later that evening or the following morning [2] - There are indications that the deadline for tariff negotiations set by the Trump administration may be flexible, potentially extending into September [3] - Morgan Stanley economists caution investors against expecting interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in July and September, despite recent dovish comments from officials [5] Group 3 - Tesla's Model Y completed its first "fully autonomous delivery," marking a significant milestone in automotive history [7] - JD.com clarified that it has not issued any stablecoin and warned that any information regarding the issuance of JD stablecoin is fraudulent [8]

Group 1 - The core issue in the current market is whether the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates, as the end of U.S. exceptionalism and tariff negotiations have been fully priced in [5][8][14] - The economic growth in the U.S. is facing serious challenges, as government leverage has ended, leaving private sectors to determine their own leverage based on market interest rates and long-term asset return expectations [8][12] - Recent consumer spending data showed a significant decline, with May's consumer spending down 0.28% month-on-month, marking the worst performance in over a year [17][18][19] Group 2 - The upcoming tariff negotiations are critical, with deadlines approaching for agreements with various countries, including the U.S.-Europe talks by July 9 and U.S.-China discussions by August 11 [28][29] - The market has already priced in expectations for a rate cut in September, which may limit the potential for further market gains unless additional positive factors emerge [28][30] - The Federal Reserve is in a difficult position, as not lowering rates may hinder corporate and consumer leverage, while lowering rates could exacerbate inflation if not managed properly [26]

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注 明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 研究员： 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 | | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | 2025/6/30 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 数据指标 | 环比 | 最新 | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | 1761.400 | -34.5↓ EC次主力收盘价 | 1339 | +4.20↑ | | 期货盘面 | EC2508-EC2510价差 422.40 -56.70↓ EC2508-EC2512价差 | | 261.40 | -48.60↓ | | EC合约基差 | 361. ...

Group 1: Currency Market Overview - The Euro/USD continues to rise, supported by a weaker dollar, trading around 1.1720 [1] - The GBP/USD maintains its upward trend for the fourth consecutive trading day, trading above 1.3700 [1] - The AUD/USD rebounds after a previous decline, trading around 0.6540 following the release of economic data from Australia [1] - The NZD/USD is up near 0.6050 [1] - The USD/CAD is down, trading around 1.3670 [1] Group 2: Key Economic and Political Developments - Trump believes there is no need to extend the July 9 tariff deadline, while the Treasury Secretary admits that completing all negotiations may be difficult [2] - The U.S. Senate is set to vote on the "Big and Beautiful" bill on June 30 [2] - Trump suggests that the U.S. should keep interest rates at 1% or 2% [2] - A poll shows Trump's approval rating has dropped to a new low [2] - Fed's Kashkari expects two rate cuts starting in September, with tariff impacts potentially delaying cuts [2] - The International Bank for Settlements states that Trump's criticism of the Fed's rate decisions does not threaten its independence [2] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the Senate version of Trump's tax cut plan will increase U.S. debt by $3.3 trillion over the next decade [2] Group 3: Non-USD Currency Developments - Canada cancels the digital services tax to advance broader trade negotiations with the U.S. [3] - A poll in Japan shows support for the Shinto Abe cabinet has remained below 30% for four consecutive months [3] - A trade agreement reducing tariffs on U.S. auto and aircraft parts from the UK has come into effect [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis - For Euro/USD, if it breaks below 1.1700, the first support level will be the June 26 low of 1.1653, followed by 1.1600 and the 50-day SMA at 1.1515 [4] - The upward trend for GBP/USD remains intact, but momentum appears to be waning after reaching a multi-year high near 1.3770 [4] - For AUD/USD, a breakout above the descending channel's upper boundary may signal the start of a strong upward trend [4] Group 5: Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data to watch includes Germany's June CPI at 20:00, U.S. June Chicago PMI at 21:45, and a speech by Fed's Bostic at 22:00 [5] - The Dallas Fed's June business activity index will be released at 22:30, followed by speeches from Fed's Goolsbee and ECB's Lagarde [6]

Global Central Bank Dynamics - The core PCE price index rose by 2.7% year-on-year in May, slightly exceeding market expectations of 2.6%. Actual personal consumption expenditures fell by 0.3% month-on-month, marking the largest decline since the beginning of the year, while personal income decreased by 0.4%, the largest drop since 2021 [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated a cautious stance on interest rate cuts, emphasizing the strong U.S. economy and the uncertainties brought by high tariffs. He indicated that the Fed is not in a hurry to cut rates [2] - The Federal Reserve is considering a potential rate cut as early as July if inflation continues to decline or if the labor market weakens. The impact of tariffs on price pressures appears to be offset [2] - The Federal Reserve is planning to relax a key capital requirement that has been criticized by large banks, allowing them to hold more U.S. Treasury securities [3] European Central Bank and Other Central Banks - European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde called for the implementation of a digital euro, highlighting its importance for European financial sovereignty [4] - The Bank of England's Governor Bailey noted that uncertainties regarding global economic structural changes are affecting the foreign exchange market, leading investors to reconsider their positions [4] - The Bank of Japan's committee member expressed concerns about accelerating inflation, suggesting that the central bank may need to raise interest rates decisively despite uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies [4] Market Observations - The Japanese yen has depreciated against the U.S. dollar, primarily due to a more dovish reassessment of interest rate expectations by the Bank of Japan [7] - RBC Wealth Management forecasts that the Bank of England may cut rates by a total of 75 basis points by the end of 2025, contingent on further declines in inflation [7] - The Mexican central bank voted to lower the benchmark interest rate by 0.5 percentage points, indicating a potential slowdown in the pace of future rate cuts [6]