报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 11 月 21 日 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与后市展望 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 1.1 行情回顾： 11 月 20 日，万得全 A 再次缩量下跌，高开后一路震荡走低，收跌 0.66%，全 市超 7 成个股下跌；沪深 300、上证 50、中证 500、中证 1000 收盘分别下跌 0.51%、 0.40%、0.85%、0.63%，大盘蓝筹股表现更优。期货方面，IF、IH、IC、IM 主力 合约分别收跌 0.57%、0.28%、0.78%、0.47%，表现整体强于现货（按收盘价计算）。 | 表1:股指期货、现货 ...

金融市场稳定担忧，包括资产价格可能急剧下跌的风险，正成为美联储官员讨论降息时机甚至是否降息 时的新主题。 "一些与会者评论了金融市场资产估值过高的问题，其中几位与会者强调了股票价格无序下跌的可能 性，特别是在市场突然重新评估人工智能相关技术的可能性时"，会议纪要称。 政策制定者之间的辩论主要集中在：再次降息是否会让多年来一直高于美联储2%目标的通胀进一步向 错误方向发展，或者更紧迫的担忧是需要美联储进一步宽松的疲软劳动力市场。 周四，两位被视为持鹰派立场的美联储官员再度对通胀表现出不安。 在周四乔治城大学的演讲中，美联储理事丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）并未特别就近期利率政策发表看法。 但她列举了一系列金融体系风险，包括快速增长的私人信贷市场、对冲基金在国债市场的交易，以及生 成式人工智能在机器交易中的应用。 库克还暗示，她不会对处于历史高位的资产价格崩盘感到惊讶——这些高估值资产支撑了整体消费支出 和更广泛的美国经济——尽管这种下跌本身并不意味着金融市场不稳定。"目前，我的感觉是资产价格 大幅下跌的可能性增加了。" 在早些时候的另一场合，克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈玛克（Beth Hammack）重申了她对进 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The US September non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, leading to significant changes in market risk preferences and various asset price fluctuations. The market is in a high - volatility state, and different industries face different situations and investment opportunities [2][16]. - In the bond market, November is mainly in a volatile state, but the probability of a decline in December is relatively high. In the commodity market, different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends [3][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee hinted at not supporting a rate cut in December. Fed Governor Cook warned of private credit risks. The US September non - farm payrolls added 119,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%. The short - term market volatility is difficult to reduce, and there may still be a decline [14][15][16]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed's Goolsbee is worried about premature and significant rate cuts. The US September non - farm payrolls data made the market's expectation of a December rate cut slightly increase, but it is still less than 50%. Gold prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, and there is a risk of correction [18][19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Multiple Fed officials maintained a hawkish stance. The US September non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, with new employment exceeding 100,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. The dollar index is expected to oscillate at a high level [22][23]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Vice - Premier He Lifeng emphasized promoting foreign trade quality improvement. A - shares had a volume - shrinking adjustment. Market rumors of new real - estate stimulus policies may have a positive impact on the economy and prices if implemented. It is recommended not to add long positions in the short term [25][26][28]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The November LPR remained unchanged. The central bank conducted a 3000 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. The probability of a decline in December is relatively high. It is recommended to short at the upper edge of the oscillation range [30][31][32]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA weekly export sales report met expectations. US bio - fuel policy uncertainty increased, and CBOT soybeans declined. It is expected that soybean meal prices will oscillate, and attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases and South American weather [33][34]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The Trump administration is considering delaying the reduction of import bio - fuel incentives. Malaysian palm oil exports from November 1 - 20 decreased by 20.5% month - on - month. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [35][36]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - Wens Co., Ltd. shut down 7 pig farms for capacity adjustment. In the short - term, it is recommended to short LH2601 and LH2603, and in the long - term, pay attention to the opportunity to lay out LH2607 and far - month contracts at low prices [37][38]. 2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 442,500 tons week - on - week. Although the current destocking is good, the subsequent inventory pressure is still large, and steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate [39]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The starch production rate slightly decreased, and inventory decreased. The rice - flour price difference is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to conduct band trading [41][42][43]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory of northern ports increased, and the inventory of southern ports decreased. Corn prices are expected to remain high and oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. 2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The power plant's winter storage is coming to an end. Coal prices are expected to stabilize in the short term, and attention should be paid to actual temperature and daily consumption in December [46]. 2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - US Steel announced a $3 billion expansion project. Iron ore prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation, and attention should be paid to policy changes [47]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The "Chengdu Declaration" was released. Polysilicon prices are expected to return to an oscillation state, and attention should be paid to interval trading opportunities [48][49][51]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The "anti - involution" of silicone drove up the industrial silicon futures price, but it is actually a negative factor. It is recommended to stop profiting from short positions in a timely manner [52][53][54]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The social inventory of lead ingots first increased and then decreased. It is recommended to short at high prices in the short term and wait and see for arbitrage and internal - external trading [55][56]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The domestic social inventory of zinc decreased. LME zinc oscillated upward. It is recommended to manage positions well in the short term and pay attention to buying opportunities on dips in the medium term [57][59][60]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - China's refined nickel imports decreased significantly in October. Nickel prices are expected to remain weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to Indonesia's supply adjustment [61][62][63]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Liontown's lithium concentrate auction price was higher than the spot price. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading fees and limits of lithium carbonate futures. It is recommended to short at high prices in the short term [64][65][66]. 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price increased by 1.51% on November 20. The CEA price has a strong upward driving force [67][68]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Natural Gas) - US natural gas inventory decreased by 14 Bcf week - on - week. Nymex natural gas faces a downward risk [69][70]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (PX) - PX prices were relatively strong. It is recommended to adjust in the short term and try to go long at low prices in the long term [71][72]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The terminal operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained stable. PTA is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory at the end of the year. It is recommended not to chase the rise unilaterally and to lay out long positions in far - month contracts and 5 - 9 positive spreads at low prices [73][75][76]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market was weakly adjusted. It is expected that the subsequent market will oscillate [77]. 2.20 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - CMA CGM and AD Ports will expand the Khalifa Port terminal. The container freight rate market is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to pay attention to low - buying opportunities for the 02 contract at the lower edge of the oscillation range [78][79][80].

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve officials are increasingly concerned about financial market stability risks, warning of potential significant asset price corrections as discussions about future interest rate cuts intensify [1][2] Group 1: Financial Market Risks - Federal Reserve Governor Cook highlighted new potential risks in the financial system, including the rapid expansion of private credit markets and high leverage in hedge fund trading in U.S. Treasury markets [1] - Cook noted that U.S. asset prices are at historical highs and does not rule out the possibility of "abnormal scale price declines," indicating an increasing likelihood of significant corrections [1] - Cleveland Fed President Harmack opposed further rate cuts, citing persistently high inflation and the risks posed by overly accommodative financial conditions [1] Group 2: Economic Data and Decision-Making - The recent government shutdown has led to missing key economic data, complicating the Fed's assessment of the current economic situation [2] - The Labor Department reported that September job growth exceeded market expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, indicating mixed signals in the labor market [2] - Market traders expect the Fed to likely hold rates steady in December unless there is a significant deterioration in the labor market, with a potential 25 basis point cut postponed until January [2]

Group 1: Nvidia Performance - Nvidia reported Q3 FY2026 revenue of $57.006 billion, a 62% year-over-year increase, and net profit of $31.910 billion, up 65%, exceeding Wall Street expectations [2] - The company raised its revenue forecast for the current quarter, alleviating concerns about an AI bubble [2] - Nvidia's data center business achieved record revenue of $51.2 billion, with growth across all business segments [2] Group 2: Xiaomi Automotive Milestone - Xiaomi's 500,000th vehicle rolled off the production line, marking a significant milestone in its automotive journey [2] - Founder Lei Jun stated that this achievement validates Xiaomi's complete system capabilities and signifies entry into a new phase of scale [2] - The company aims to deliver over 400,000 vehicles in 2025, with over 100,000 delivered in Q3, a record high [2] Group 3: Japan's Economic Stimulus Plan - Japan's Prime Minister plans to introduce a ¥21.3 trillion economic stimulus package, the largest since the pandemic [3] - Concerns about the potential deterioration of fiscal health led to a decline in Japanese government bond prices and the yen [3] - The stimulus plan aims to reduce household living costs and promote investment, pending parliamentary approval [3] Group 4: US Non-Farm Payroll Data - The US September non-farm payroll report showed an addition of 119,000 jobs, exceeding expectations, with the unemployment rate slightly rising to 4.4% [3] - Following the data release, the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December appeared low, though traders increased bets on a potential cut [3] - There is significant division among Federal Reserve officials regarding the appropriateness of maintaining or cutting rates in December [3] Group 5: A-share Market Trends - On November 20, the A-share market opened high but closed lower, with over 3,800 stocks declining [3] - The market's cautious sentiment is attributed to unresolved divergences around the 4,000-point level and profit-taking by some investors [3] - The trading volume dropped to ¥1.72 trillion, indicating a potential continuation of cautious sentiment into December [3] Group 6: Real Estate Sector Activity - The real estate sector experienced a sudden surge, with stocks like Sunac China and I Love My Home rising [3] - This movement is linked to industry rumors of favorable policies, although not officially confirmed [3] - The market is stabilizing with a focus on second-hand home transactions, supported by ongoing adjustments in real estate policies [3] Group 7: CATL Share Unlocking and Shareholder Actions - CATL's H-shares saw a portion of shares unlocked, with co-founder Huang Shilin planning to reduce holdings worth approximately ¥17 billion [4] - Despite the reduction being conducted through an inquiry transfer to minimize market impact, the stock price was still affected [4] - CATL's market share in power batteries is declining, while its energy storage business is expected to grow, with battery swapping becoming a strategic focus [4] Group 8: ETF Market Trends - On November 20, over 200 out of 1,300 ETFs saw gains, with cross-border ETFs leading the performance [5] - The previous trading day saw a net inflow of approximately ¥8 billion into ETFs, with a cumulative net inflow exceeding ¥50 billion from November 14 to 19 [5] - There was a notable shift in fund flows, with a preference for mid and small-cap ETFs over large-cap broad-based ETFs [5]

美国芝加哥联储主席Goolsbee（2025年FOMC票委）：过去三个月的通胀充其量是保持稳定，从某些衡 量标准来看更糟。在确定通胀回升是否是暂时的之前，对提前大幅降息感到不安。认为美联储主席鲍威 尔努力建立共识的做法很有价值。如果我最终意见强烈，且与其他美联储政策制定者意见不同，提出异 议也没有错。在美联储9月降息后，认为2025年只需要再降息一次。当我投票支持美联储10月降息时， 假定就业市场正在逐渐降温。9月就业数据显示稳定、温和降温；失业救济申请没有显示快速恶化。官 方政府数据是"一团糟"；缺乏通胀可见性带来的风险大于缺乏劳动力市场可见性带来的风险，因为劳动 力市场有更多替代数据。就中期利率而言，他不是鹰派。相信利率将远低于目前的水平。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Hamark emphasizes the importance of monitoring stablecoins and private credit, indicating that the current financial environment is "quite loose" and that interest rate cuts could distort market pricing levels, potentially prolonging high inflation scenarios [1] Group 1 - The current financial environment is described as "quite loose," suggesting ample liquidity in the market [1] - Interest rate cuts may pose risks by distorting market pricing levels and could lead to prolonged high inflation [1] - Lowering interest rates for risk management purposes could increase financial stability risks [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve official Hamak stated that interest rate cuts may prolong high inflation and could encourage risk-taking behavior in financial markets [1] Group 1 - Interest rate cuts could potentially lead to sustained high inflation levels [1] - Lower interest rates may incentivize financial markets to engage in riskier investments [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Federal Reserve officials, particularly Harker, have indicated that lowering interest rates could prolong high inflation [1] Group 2 - The statement highlights the potential risks associated with interest rate cuts in the context of ongoing inflationary pressures [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent financial performance of a specific company, highlighting significant revenue growth and strategic initiatives that have contributed to its success [1] Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue increase of 25% year-over-year, reaching $2.5 billion in the last quarter [1] - Net income rose to $300 million, reflecting a 15% increase compared to the previous year [1] Strategic Initiatives - The company has launched a new product line that is expected to capture a larger market share, with projections indicating a potential revenue boost of $500 million over the next year [1] - Investments in technology and innovation have been prioritized, with a budget allocation of $200 million aimed at enhancing operational efficiency [1] Market Position - The company has strengthened its market position, now holding a 30% share in its primary sector, up from 25% last year [1] - Competitive analysis indicates that the company is well-positioned against its main rivals, with a unique value proposition that appeals to a broader customer base [1]