沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铝: 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货20720，基差-20，贴水期货，中性。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周增991吨至 125596吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，美再扩大钢铝关税，多空交织，铝价震荡运行. 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 每日汇总 | 现货 昨 ...

Core Viewpoint - A-shares lead global markets, with the rapid appreciation of the RMB and a decline in the US dollar index driven by interest rate cut expectations, while gold surpasses $3,400 [1] Global Major Asset Performance - Last week (August 25-29, 2025), major economic stock markets showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.8%, while the emerging market stock index fell by 0.6% [6] - Most commodities saw price increases, with IPE Brent crude oil futures up by 0.5% and London gold rising by 2.2% [6] - The US dollar index remained stable, closing up by 0.1% for the week [6] - The 10-year US Treasury yield slightly decreased from 4.26% to 4.23% [6] US Economic Overview - The US second-quarter GDP growth rate was revised to 3.3% year-on-year [6] - The core PCE price index year-on-year growth rate increased, with July's PCE index rising by 2.60% and core PCE by 2.88% [6] - Initial jobless claims decreased to 229,000 [6] - Personal disposable income grew by 4.6% year-on-year, while personal consumption expenditure increased by 4.7% [6] - The consumer confidence index fell to 58.2 in August from 61.7 [6] - Inflation expectations rose, with the one-year inflation expectation increasing to 4.8% from 4.5% [6] European Economic Overview - The Eurozone consumer confidence index dropped to -15.5 in August from -14.7 [6] - The Eurozone economic sentiment index fell to 95.2 from 95.7 [6] Monetary Policy Insights - Multiple Federal Reserve officials hinted at a potential interest rate cut in September [6] - The US appeals court ruled that most of Trump's global tariffs were illegal but allowed the government to retain tariff measures [6] - Hopes for a trade agreement between the US and India appear dim, with the US imposing a 50% tariff on India [6] - The Bank of Japan indicated that the current economic environment is more favorable for interest rate hikes compared to April [6]

外围市场最近也不消停。美股科技股集体拉稀，纳斯达克100指数这周跌了1.2%，苹果、英伟达这些巨头都在走下坡路。这对A股的半导体、AI板块可不是 好事，尤其是那些估值过高的小票。不过有个好消息，美联储最爱的PCE数据下周公布，要是通胀继续降温，9月降息板上钉钉，这可能会给全球市场打一 针强心剂。 再看技术面，沪指这周收出一颗十字星，这可不是什么好兆头。抖音上有个叫云帆的分析师说得挺准，下周大概率先冲高后回落，高点可能就在周一或周 二。3800-3900点这个区间压力山大，毕竟2015年股灾的套牢盘还趴在那儿呢。但也别太悲观，3800点附近有强支撑，要是跌破这个位置，反而可能杀出黄 金坑。创业板这边要特别注意，2933点可能是短期顶部，小心高位股补跌。 资金面最近有点诡异。北向资金二季度狂买548亿，重点加仓金融、工业和医疗保健，宁德时代、恒瑞医药这些龙头都被买爆了。可到了8月底，机构突然反 手做空，中芯国际、剑桥科技这些科技股被砸出深坑。这说明大资金正在调仓换股，从高估值的科技股转向低估值的金融和消费。大家可以留意北向资金的 实时动向，要是他们继续加仓银行、保险，那就是明确的防御信号。 家人们，周末复盘的时候 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent rise in inflation pressures in the U.S. as of July, alongside a significant increase in consumer spending, indicating a complex economic landscape ahead of the Federal Reserve's September meeting [3]. Inflation Pressure - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.2% month-on-month in July, a slowdown of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, remaining stable compared to June [4]. - The core PCE price index, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year growth accelerating to 2.9%, the highest level since February [4]. Consumer Spending - Consumer spending, which accounts for over two-thirds of economic activity, was revised up to 0.4% in June and accelerated to 0.5% in July, marking the highest growth since March [5]. - The increase in spending was largely driven by durable goods purchases, which rose by 0.8%, particularly in automobiles, household furniture, and sporting goods [5]. Labor Market and Employment - Despite a low unemployment rate supporting consumption and wage growth, employers are hesitant to increase headcount due to rising operational costs from tariffs [5]. - Average monthly job growth over the past three months was reported at 35,000, significantly lower than the 123,000 in the same period last year [5]. Policy Outlook - The July PCE data is one of three key reports ahead of the Federal Reserve's September meeting, alongside the August non-farm payroll report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [7]. - Many economists on Wall Street expect inflation to rise further due to increasing business costs and reduced inventory, with retailers and automakers warning that tariffs are raising their costs, which may be passed on to consumers [7]. Federal Reserve Consensus - There is a growing consensus within the Federal Reserve towards a potential rate cut in September, although significant divisions remain regarding inflation concerns and labor market weaknesses [8]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September stands at 84%, consistent with the PCE data release [7]. Consumer Sentiment - The proportion of consumers finding it "hard to get a job" rose to the highest level in four and a half years as of August, indicating growing concerns about the labor market [9]. - Despite concerns about inflation spiraling, the current data suggests a potential for a rate cut in September, although uncertainties remain due to strong consumer and core inflation rates exceeding the Federal Reserve's target [9].

Group 1 - Bitcoin has dropped below $110,000, currently around $108,000, raising concerns about a potential fall below $100,000 [2][4] - The recent PCE data release did not alleviate market pessimism, with a significant number of liquidations occurring, totaling $462 million, including $344 million in long positions [1] - The Fear and Greed Index has fallen to 40, indicating a state of fear in the market, despite Bitcoin holding above $100,000 and Ethereum above $4,000 [1] Group 2 - Ethereum's recent performance has weakened, with current resistance around $4,300, and the focus is on whether it can regain and stabilize above this level [4][6] - The macroeconomic outlook suggests a likely interest rate cut in September, supported by slowing economic indicators such as employment and consumer spending [6] - The Federal Reserve's approach indicates a willingness to cut rates even if inflation does not drop below 2%, as long as inflation growth stabilizes [6] Group 3 - The recent positive news for Bonk has led to a rise in several lesser-known cryptocurrencies, indicating competitive dynamics within the market [7] - The Pump project has seen a significant buyback of transaction fees, suggesting potential for future price increases, although current market conditions are challenging [7] - The ongoing discussions about which blockchain to watch, including Binance Chain, Solana, X Chain, and Ethereum, reflect the competitive landscape in the cryptocurrency sector [8]

Group 1 - The July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year growth of 2.6%, remaining stable compared to June [2] - The core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3% month-on-month and accelerated to a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, the highest level since February [2] - Consumer spending accelerated to a growth rate of 0.5% in July, marking the highest increase since March, largely driven by durable goods purchases [2][3] Group 2 - The low unemployment rate supports steady growth in consumption and wages, with July wages increasing by 0.6% month-on-month [3] - Despite rising operational costs due to tariffs, employers are hesitant to increase hiring, with average monthly job growth at 35,000 over the past three months, significantly lower than the 123,000 in the same period last year [3] - The PCE data is one of three key reports ahead of the Federal Reserve's September meeting, alongside the August non-farm payroll report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [4] Group 3 - Many Wall Street economists expect inflation to rise further due to increasing business costs and reduced inventory, with retailers and automakers warning that tariffs are raising their costs [4] - The manufacturing PMI in August expanded at the fastest rate in over three years, contributing to ongoing inflationary pressures, with the sales price index reaching a three-year high [4] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is at 84%, with a growing consensus within the Federal Reserve, although concerns about inflation remain [5]

Core Insights - The core PCE price index in the U.S. rose to a year-on-year increase of 2.9% in July, indicating a slight uptick in inflationary pressures [1][2] - Consumer spending saw its largest increase in four months, accelerating to 0.5% in July, primarily driven by durable goods purchases [2][3] - The labor market remains weak, with average monthly job growth significantly lower than previous years, which may influence future monetary policy decisions [3][5] Inflation Trends - The PCE price index increased by 0.2% month-on-month in July, with a year-on-year growth of 2.6%, remaining stable compared to June [2] - Core PCE, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, the highest since February [2] - Service costs rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, indicating persistent inflation in the service sector, which is less affected by tariffs [2][4] Economic Outlook - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in September will consider the July PCE data alongside the non-farm payroll and CPI reports [4] - Rising tariffs are expected to increase business costs, potentially leading to higher consumer prices, as indicated by recent warnings from retailers and automakers [4] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is currently at 84%, reflecting a growing consensus within the Federal Reserve, despite concerns about inflation [5][6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that despite persistent inflation, consumer demand in the U.S. remains resilient, as evidenced by a significant increase in consumer spending in July [4][6] - The PCE price index for July showed a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, aligning with expectations and previous values, while the month-on-month change remained flat at 0.2% [4] - The core PCE price index rose by 2.9% year-on-year in July, marking the highest level since February, and matched expectations [6] Group 2 - The recent performance of gold prices has been strong, with a notable increase to $3437 per ounce, prompting plans for profit-taking in the North American trading session [6] - The upcoming week is anticipated to present a volatility window, with expectations of a range-bound market, indicating potential resistance levels at $3450 and $3500 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][5]. Core Views - The company's performance in H1 2025 was slightly below expectations, with total revenue of 5.663 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.36%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.504 billion yuan, down 7.56% year-on-year [5]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to road diversion and differentiated toll policies, which have put pressure on the investment and operation segment [5]. - The company benefits from a decrease in financial expenses due to interest rate cuts and proactive adjustments to its debt structure, resulting in a 15.79% year-on-year decrease in financial expenses to 745 million yuan in H1 2025 [5]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2025E-2027E at 6.645 billion, 6.758 billion, and 7.255 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11, 11, and 10 [5]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 14.841 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.8% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected to be 6.645 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 24.8% [4]. - The company’s gross profit margin is expected to be 35.9% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 9.3% [4]. - The company’s total operating revenue for 2024 is estimated at 12.711 billion yuan, with a net profit of 5.322 billion yuan [7].

Core Insights - The July PCE inflation rate rose slightly, indicating the impact of President Trump's tariff policies on the U.S. economy [1] - The core PCE inflation rate reached 2.9%, the highest level since February, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures [1][3] - Consumer spending increased by 0.3% in July, despite rising prices, showing strong momentum in the economy [3] Inflation Data - The PCE price index increased by 2.6% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, aligning with market expectations [1] - The core PCE inflation, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3% month-on-month, consistent with forecasts [1][3] - Service prices have increased, raising concerns about further inflation [3] Trade Deficit - The U.S. trade deficit surged by 22.1% in July, reaching $103.6 billion, indicating potential economic headwinds for Q3 [5] - Imports increased by $18.6 billion to $281.5 billion, while exports fell by $1 billion to $178 billion [5] - The previous quarter's trade deficit had significantly contributed to GDP growth, but the current trend suggests a reversal [5] Economic Growth Projections - The Atlanta Fed projects a 2.2% annualized growth rate for the U.S. GDP in Q3 [6]