Group 1: Trade Agreements and Economic Policies - Trump announced a trade agreement between the US and EU, imposing a 15% tariff and a $600 billion investment from the EU into the US, while the EU will implement 0% tariffs on US goods [11] - The US Commerce Secretary stated that the deadline for tariff increases on August 1 will not be extended, and the US will determine its chip tariff policy within two weeks [11] - The US is expected to impose anti-dumping duties on Canadian softwood lumber, with rates to be announced on August 8 [11] Group 2: Market Performance - International oil prices fell due to negative economic news and expectations of increased supply, with WTI crude oil down 1.67% to $64.85 per barrel and Brent crude down 1.41% to $67.60 per barrel [4] - US stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.47%, S&P 500 up 0.4%, and Nasdaq up 0.24% [4] - European stock indices showed mixed results, with Germany's DAX30 down 0.32% and the UK FTSE 100 down 0.2% [5] Group 3: Sector-Specific Developments - In Hong Kong, semiconductor stocks performed well, with Hua Hong Semiconductor rising 9% and SMIC up nearly 5%, while education and entertainment stocks faced declines [5] - In the A-share market, the semiconductor sector saw gains, with Zhangjiang Hi-Tech hitting the daily limit and Cambrian Technology rising over 12% [6] - The pharmaceutical outsourcing sector also showed strong performance, with WuXi Biologics up over 5% [5]

Group 1 - China will hold a political bureau meeting at the end of July to determine the policy tone for the second half of the year [2] - The official manufacturing PMI for July will be released on July 31, with June's PMI at 49.7%, showing a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment [2] - A total of 54 companies will have their restricted shares unlocked next week, amounting to 3.385 billion shares, with a total market value of 102.679 billion yuan based on the latest closing price [2] Group 2 - Three new stocks will be issued in the A-share market next week, including Tianfu Long on the Shanghai main board, Youli Intelligent on the Beijing Stock Exchange, and Guangdong Jianke on the ChiNext [3] - Over 40% of S&P 500 companies will report earnings next week, with significant attention on tech stocks such as Apple, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, and Qualcomm, which may lead to market volatility [4]

Group 1 - The State Council is promoting free preschool education as an important initiative that affects many families and long-term development, with a focus on financial support and monitoring [2] - The meeting emphasized the need for a detailed work plan for local governments, ensuring timely and sufficient funding for preschool education [2] - There is a commitment to improve the quality of preschool education by enhancing infrastructure and teacher compensation, while also ensuring the well-being of children in care [2] Group 2 - The 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference highlighted the rapid advancements in AI, with a focus on its integration into various industries and its potential as a new engine for economic growth [3][4] - The conference addressed the need for balancing development and security in AI, advocating for AI to be a public good that benefits humanity [3] - Suggestions were made to enhance inclusive access to AI technologies and to foster international cooperation in AI research and development [4] Group 3 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) held a meeting to discuss the current market situation and emphasized the importance of stabilizing the capital market amid complex external conditions [5][6] - The CSRC plans to implement reforms to invigorate the multi-tiered market, including measures for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market [7] Group 4 - The 8th World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai announced the issuance of new operating licenses for intelligent connected vehicles, indicating a significant step in the automotive AI sector [8] - The conference also introduced the "Mosu Zhixing" action plan aimed at establishing a leading high-level autonomous driving area by 2027, fostering a competitive smart connected vehicle industry [8] Group 5 - A new policy initiative from ten departments aims to boost agricultural product consumption through various measures, including enhancing online sales and live-streaming e-commerce [11] - The initiative is expected to expand and improve the consumer market, particularly in service sectors like tourism and culture, driven by rising incomes and improved consumption environments [11] Group 6 - The CSRC approved an IPO registration for Beijing Haocreat Electric Equipment Co., indicating ongoing activity in the capital markets [14] - This week, two new stocks are set to be issued, reflecting continued interest in new market entrants [15] Group 7 - A significant amount of restricted shares, totaling 32.92 billion shares valued at approximately 960.26 billion yuan, will be unlocked this week, which may impact market dynamics [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the spot prices of coking coal continued to rise, with the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal quoted at 1050 - 1100 yuan/ton and the price of Anze low - sulfur prime coking coal at 1400 - 1450 yuan/ton. The third round of price increases for coke spot was implemented, and the fourth round was initiated on Sunday, expected to be officially implemented on Monday. The coking coal and coke futures experienced sharp fluctuations during the week, with significant changes in price and spreads [4]. - The coking coal market: Domestically, coal mines that had reduced or suspended production due to environmental protection and inventory issues are gradually resuming production, but at a slow pace. The daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at ports has returned to normal, and the import profit of overseas coal is continuously improving, which is expected to be reflected in the arrival volume in 1 - 2 months. The rebound in the futures market has driven the speculative demand for spot coking coal, leading to a rapid price increase and stimulating downstream coking plants to replenish raw material inventories. The short - term demand for coking coal has been boosted, and the inventory structure has improved significantly [4]. - The coke market: Due to the sharp increase in the price of coking coal, the losses of coking plants have widened, and their production enthusiasm is average. With the implementation of the third - round price increase and the ongoing pursuit of the fourth round, and considering the high profits of steel products, coke has a basis for further price increases. The demand for coke is strong, with high iron - making water production, rigid procurement demand from steel mills, and active participation of futures - cash traders in the market [5]. - After the Dalian Commodity Exchange restricted the daily opening volume of coking coal futures on Friday night, the coking coal futures market experienced a sharp decline, and related industrial futures also tumbled. If the speculative demand that entered the market earlier is unwound, the outflow of off - balance - sheet inventory will impact the spot market. Coking plants are currently in a wait - and - see mode, with insufficient motivation to continue replenishing inventories. Further price increases require the introduction of more than expected macro - policies. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and focus on the reverse spread of coking coal 9 - 1 for arbitrage [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Balance Sheet - **Coking Coal**: The total supply of coking coal has shown certain fluctuations. In Week 27 (2025/7/25), the coking coal production was 977.08 million tons, and the net import was 190 million tons, with a total supply of 1167.08 million tons. The theoretical iron - making water supply and the actual iron - making water production also had differences, and the explicit inventory decreased by 69.57 million tons compared to the previous week [8]. - **Coke**: The total supply of coke also fluctuated. In Week 27 (2025/7/25), the coke production was 782.32 million tons, and the net export was 10.88 million tons, with a total domestic supply of 771.44 million tons. The theoretical iron - making water supply and the actual iron - making water production had differences, and the explicit inventory decreased by 7.42 million tons compared to the previous week [8]. 3.2 Key News This Week - **Macro News**: China's Politburo member and Vice - Premier He Lifeng will hold economic and trade talks with the US in Sweden from July 27 - 30. The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation are soliciting opinions on the revised draft of the Price Law [11]. - **Industry News**: Shagang raised the price of scrap steel by 50 yuan/ton. The third - round price increase of coke was fully implemented. Steel enterprises at the Shaanxi - Shanxi - Sichuan - Gansu Steel Enterprises Summit Forum agreed to strengthen industry self - discipline. The Dalian Commodity Exchange restricted the daily opening volume of coking coal futures [13][14]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Coking Coal and Coke Weekly Data**: The operating rate of 523 coking coal mines increased by 0.83 percentage points to 86.9%, and the daily average raw coal production increased by 1.86 million tons to 194.74 million tons. The operating rate of 110 coal - washing plants decreased by 0.54 percentage points to 62.31%, and the daily average cleaned coal production decreased by 1.23 million tons to 52.145 million tons. The total inventory of coking coal decreased by 69.57 million tons to 2982.88 million tons. The total inventory of coke decreased by 7.42 million tons to 918.23 million tons [16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke Futures Prices**: The basis and spreads of coking coal and coke futures showed significant changes. For example, the basis of coking coal (Tangshan Mongolian 5) decreased by 203 yuan/ton compared to the previous week, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton [18]. - **Coking Coal and Coke Spot Prices**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke generally increased. For example, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur prime coking coal increased by 150 yuan/ton to 1450 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Luliang quasi - first - grade wet coke increased by 100 yuan/ton to 1130 yuan/ton [19]. - **Price, Profit, and Spread**: The coking profit was negative, and the import profit of some coking coals improved. The ratio of coking coal to thermal coal increased from 2.0732 to 2.4123 [20]. 3.4 Coking Coal Supply and Inventory - Mines: The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 86.9%, with an increase of 0.8 percentage points. The daily average raw coal production was 194.7 million tons, an increase of 1.9 million tons, and the raw coal inventory decreased by 79.3 million tons to 536.0 million tons. The daily average cleaned coal production was 77.7 million tons, an increase of 0.7 million tons, and the cleaned coal inventory decreased by 60.6 million tons to 278.4 million tons [63]. - Coal - washing Plants: The operating rate of 110 coal - washing plants was 62.31%, a decrease of 0.55 percentage points. The daily average production was 52.15 million tons, a decrease of 1.23 million tons. The raw coal inventory decreased by 6.16 million tons to 292.53 million tons, and the cleaned coal inventory decreased by 15.93 million tons to 175.61 million tons [65]. - Ports: The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports decreased by 41.46 million tons to 512.04 million tons [65]. 3.5 Coke Supply and Inventory - Independent Coking Plants: The capacity utilization rate was 73.45%, an increase of 0.44 percentage points. The daily average coke production was 64.60 million tons, an increase of 0.39 million tons, and the coke inventory decreased by 7.43 million tons to 80.12 million tons. The total coking coal inventory increased by 56.27 million tons to 985.38 million tons [96]. - Steel Mills: The daily average coke production was 47.16 million tons, an increase of 0.07 million tons. The coke inventory increased by 0.99 million tons to 639.98 million tons. The coking coal inventory increased by 8.41 million tons to 799.51 million tons [96]. - Ports: The inventory of coke at 18 ports decreased by 2.38 million tons to 250.33 million tons [96]. 3.6 Steel Production and Inventory - 247 steel mills: The blast furnace operating rate was 83.46%, remaining unchanged from the previous week, and the iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.81%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points. The daily average iron - making water production was 242.23 million tons, a decrease of 0.21 million tons [130]. - Steel Supply and Demand: The production of five major steel products was 866.97 million tons, a decrease of 0.1%. The total steel inventory was 1336.5 million tons, a decrease of 0.1%. The steel consumption was 868.13 million tons, with an increase of 2.7% in building material consumption and a decrease of 1.7% in plate consumption [130]. 3.7 Coal and Coke Import and Export - Coking Coal Import: The import volume of coking coal showed certain fluctuations, and the import structure also changed. The import volume from Mongolia, Russia, and other countries had different trends [169]. - Coke Export: The export volume of coke and semi - coke also showed seasonal changes, and the export profit also fluctuated [180][194].

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 27 Jul 2025 香港策略 Hong Kong Strategy 银行退位、蓝筹暖场，短期过热静待调整窗口 Banks Step Back, Blue Chips Warm Up — Awaiting a Cooling-Off Window After Short-Term Overheating 周林泓 Amber Zhou 李加惠 Jiahui Li, CFA amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com jh.li@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 上周我们指出，更佳的建仓时点仍有赖于市场回调，但目前短期市场表现持续强于预期，即便我们此前判断短期需 规避的银行板块已进入持续回调阶段，也未对指数上涨造成影响。这显示市场正逐步进入牛市氛围，支撑行情的长 期逻辑持续兑现，资金加速入场，原本可能引发调整的因素在当前阶段难以形成压制。恒生指数本周突破前期 ...

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai nickel main contract 2509 closed at 124,360 yuan/ton on July 24, 2025, and the nickel price showed an overall fluctuating upward trend this month. The market is currently in the stage of trading expectations, and it is expected that subsequent "anti - involution" supporting policies will continue to increase. If so, the market may continue to rise. It is predicted that the Shanghai nickel and stainless steel will mainly show a fluctuating upward trend in the future [3][42]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In July 2025, nickel showed an overall fluctuating upward trend. The nickel futures price was gradually repairing the gap caused by the tariff storm in early April. Due to weak demand, the overall market fluctuated with a slightly lower center. This month, it rose due to the impact of the "anti - involution" policy [9]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Supply - side Analysis - **LME and SHFE inventory**: Since the second half of 2023, both LME and SHFE nickel inventories have shown a stable recovery trend. As of late July 2025, SHFE inventory was 25,277 tons, and LME inventory was 204,456 tons. As of July 18, 2025, the nickel port inventory was 6.2896 million tons [12][15]. - **Chinese nickel ore port inventory and imported Philippine nickel ore quantity**: The import of nickel ore sand and concentrates from the Philippines shows seasonal fluctuations [16]. - **Electrolytic nickel price**: The prices of domestic and imported electrolytic nickel have been in a weak and fluctuating trend since the beginning of this year, and closed at around 121,300 yuan/ton in mid - July [20]. - **Nickel sulfate price**: As of July 24, 2025, the nickel sulfate price dropped to 27,830 yuan/ton [22]. - **Nickel iron import volume and price**: On July 24, 2025, the Fubao price of nickel iron (8% - 12%) was 930 yuan/nickel [28]. 2.2 Demand - side Analysis - **Stainless steel price and position**: The stainless steel futures price is currently fluctuating at a low level, and the expected fluctuation range is 12,600 - 13,300 yuan/ton [31]. - **Stainless steel inventory**: According to data released by WIND, on July 18, 2025, the inventories of 300 - series stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan were 477,100 tons and 179,200 tons respectively [33]. - **Power and energy - storage battery production**: The production of power and energy - storage batteries shows certain trends, but specific data trends are not elaborated in detail in the text [37]. - **New - energy vehicle production**: The production of new - energy vehicles shows certain trends, but specific data trends are not elaborated in detail in the text [40]. 3. Future Outlook - The Shanghai nickel market rebounded in mid - and early April, then declined due to weak fundamentals, and continued to fluctuate this month. Recently, due to the hot trading sentiment of industrial products, the Shanghai nickel price has risen. At the industrial level, the spot trading of refined nickel is average, and the changes in the spot premiums and discounts of each refined nickel are small. The supply shortage of nickel ore has been alleviated, and the current supply is relatively loose. The nickel - iron price remains weak, and many factories are in the red. The nickel sulfate price maintains a weak downward trend, and the downstream demand has not improved significantly. The demand for stainless steel is weak, the inventory reduction progress is slow, and the inventory pressure still exists. Whether it will improve in the medium and long term remains to be verified by further data [42].

Group 1 - The focus of the upcoming week includes the China-US trade negotiations and the tariff deadline on August 1, which will significantly impact global trade dynamics [5][7] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is highly anticipated, with a strong likelihood of maintaining current rates [15][17] - Key economic data releases include US non-farm payrolls, GDP, and PCE data, as well as China's official manufacturing PMI [5][18][22] Group 2 - Major companies reporting earnings include Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon, Qualcomm, Boeing, and Starbucks, indicating a peak earnings season for US stocks [6][25] - Microsoft is expected to show strong performance driven by its AI investments and operational efficiency, with a target price of $530 [26] - Meta's Q2 revenue is projected at $44.71 billion, reflecting a 14% year-over-year increase, with a strong history of exceeding market expectations [27] - Apple is anticipated to report revenues of $90.7 billion, a 5.8% increase from the previous year, primarily due to strong iPhone sales [28] - Amazon's revenue is expected to reach $162 billion, driven by growth in AWS and retail operations [29][30] - Qualcomm is in the process of acquiring Alphawave for approximately $2.4 billion, pending regulatory approval [31] - Boeing forecasts a significant increase in earnings and revenue, with a long-term demand outlook for commercial aircraft remaining positive [32] - Starbucks is introducing free study rooms in select locations in China to boost customer traffic amid increasing competition [32] - WuXi AppTec's stock has reached a 60-day high, with strong institutional support and a focus on innovative healthcare solutions [33]

【冠通研究】 关注宏观情绪变化 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 25 日 【策略分析】 今日盘面低开低走承压运行，何立峰将于 7 月 27 日至 30 日赴瑞典与美方举行经贸 会谈，中美谈判预期目前偏乐观，但不排除谈判推迟可能性。下周将迎来 50%关税的落 地期限，落地情况可能干扰市场波动幅度 供给方面，截至 2025 年 7 月 18 日，现货粗炼 费为-43.16 美元/干吨，现货精炼费为-4.31 美分/磅。冶炼厂粗炼费、精炼费本周均企 稳回升，7 月一家冶炼企业有检修计划，涉及精炼产能 15 万吨，对精炼铜产量影响有 限。SMM 预计 7 月国内电解铜产量环比增加 1.55 万吨，升幅为 1.37%。需求方面，截至 2025 年 5 月，电解铜表观消费 136.35 万吨，相比上月涨跌+8.08 万吨，涨跌幅+6.30%。 下游处于相对淡季，虽价格下跌后报价升水走强，但交投情绪依然偏弱，终端工业产品 如空调等均环比产量减少，下游按需跟进，市场观望情绪浓厚，上期所库存去化，终端 需求依然有韧性。综合来看，下周市场将迎来中美贸易谈判及关税的落地期限，宏观干 扰下，行情不确定性高，基本面库存低位支撑价格行情 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The domestic futures market on July 24, 2025, showed more rising contracts than falling ones. Some commodities like coking coal, lithium carbonate, and glass had significant increases, while rapeseed meal, soybean meal, and live pigs declined. Different commodities have their own supply - demand situations and influencing factors, with varying market outlooks and recommended operations [7]. Summary by Commodity Coking Coal - The price opened high, then dropped and finally rose to the daily limit. The spot prices in Shanxi and for Mongolian coal increased. In June, coking coal imports rose, and the supply is expected to shrink due to safety inspections and production verifications. The inventory is being transferred downstream, and downstream demand is boosting the price. The start of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project and supply - reform expectations are driving up the market, but caution is needed [3]. Soybean Meal - The main 09 contract opened high but closed low, with a significant decline. The supply is abundant, but the demand is average. Concerns about reduced pig production and the promotion of soybean meal substitution limit the price from breaking through the 3100 - yuan resistance. The market is expected to be weak and volatile [5]. Copper - The market is optimistic about trade talks. The smelting fees are stabilizing and rising, and the domestic electrolytic copper output is expected to increase. The downstream is in a relatively off - peak season, and the trading sentiment is weak, but the terminal demand has resilience. The market has strong support below, but the upside is limited due to Fed rate - cut uncertainty and weak downstream sentiment [11]. Lithium Carbonate - The price opened low and then rose to the daily limit. The market expects supply to be tight due to production limitations in Jiangxi. The production has increased, and the inventory pressure has been digested but remains high. The cost is rising, but the downstream acceptance of high prices is low. The market is in a stage of strong expectations but weak reality, and caution is required [12][13]. Crude Oil - The cease - fire between Iran and Israel has eased supply - interruption concerns. The market needs to monitor the subsequent Middle East situation. The oil is in a seasonal consumption peak, and the US inventory has decreased. OPEC+ will increase production, and Saudi Arabia has raised the price. The market is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to buy at the lower end of the range [14][16]. Asphalt - The supply is increasing, but the downstream demand is restricted by factors such as funds, rainfall, and high temperature. The geopolitical risk has decreased, and the crude oil price is volatile. The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate in the near term [17]. PP - The downstream开工率 is low, and the export of downstream products is affected by tariffs. The supply is increasing, and the inventory is relatively high. With the increase in coal prices and positive policy expectations, the market sentiment is improving. It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to buy on dips or do 09 - 01 reverse spreads [18][19]. Plastic - The开工率 is at a medium level, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The supply is increasing, and the inventory is high. With coal price increases and policy expectations, the market sentiment is positive. It is recommended to buy on dips or do 09 - 01 reverse spreads [20]. PVC - The supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is weak. The export is restricted, and the inventory is high. The real estate market has not improved significantly. With policy expectations and coal price increases, the market sentiment is better. It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to buy on dips or do 09 - 01 reverse spreads [21]. Soybean Oil - The supply is abundant due to high soybean imports and high - level crushing. The demand is supported by soybean meal substitution and is expected to pick up in the third quarter, but the rising inventory restricts the price increase. It is expected to be slightly strong in the short term [22][23]. Rebar - The price showed a pattern of opening low, rising, and then falling. The short - term upward movement is under pressure, while the long - term trend is stable and rising. The supply is increasing due to good steel - mill profits, but the real estate market is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level and operate accordingly [24]. Hot - Rolled Coil - The price also opened low, rose, and then fell. The short - term pressure is significant, and the long - term trend is rising. The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but there are still de - stocking and weak - demand problems. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level and follow the project procurement and steel - mill restocking [25][26]. Urea - The price opened low, rose, and then declined. The supply is expected to change due to equipment maintenance, and the domestic demand is weak. The inventory de - stocking has slowed down. The market is expected to be volatile and bearish in the near term [27].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures on July 24, 2025, including whether they will be in a strong, weak, or wide - range oscillation state, and gives corresponding support and resistance levels [2]. - In the medium - term, the A - share market's pricing effectiveness is gradually emerging, and the optimistic market trend is expected to continue [16]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro News and Trading Tips - China and the US will hold economic and trade talks in Sweden from July 27 - 30. The "zero - tariff" commodity tax item ratio in Hainan Free Trade Port will increase from 21% to 74% after the full - island customs closure on December 18, 2025. China will issue elderly care service consumption subsidies to moderately and severely disabled elderly people, starting pilot programs in some regions in July [8]. - The US and Japan reached a tariff agreement, with the US reducing the "reciprocal tariff" on Japan from 25% to 15%, and Japan increasing US rice imports. Japan will invest $550 billion in the US and buy $80 billion worth of US goods. Trump plans to impose 15% - 50% tariffs on most other countries [9]. - The EU and the US are moving towards an agreement to set a 15% tariff rate on most products. The Trump administration released the "AI Action Plan", and Trump criticized the Fed for lacking "courage" and called for a 3 - percentage - point interest rate cut [10]. 2. Commodity Futures - Related Information - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the price limit range, trading margin standard, trading fee standard, and trading limit of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate futures contracts. Dalian Commodity Exchange issued a market risk warning for coking coal [11]. - International precious metal futures generally closed down, international oil prices fluctuated narrowly, and London base metals mostly rose at the close. Market participants are concerned about policy and supply - demand changes [12]. 3. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Stock Index Futures - On July 23, 2025, major stock index futures contracts showed different trends. The A - share market had a strong pattern, with multiple major market indexes hitting new highs during the session. The Hong Kong stock market also rose. In the future, stock index futures are expected to be in a strong oscillation state [12][16]. - On July 24, 2025, IF2509 has resistance at 4147 and 4168 points and support at 4090 and 4066 points; IH2509 has resistance at 2815 and 2830 points and support at 2797 and 2785 points; IC2509 has resistance at 6165 and 6219 points and support at 6100 and 6080 points; IM2509 has resistance at 6561 and 6600 points and support at 6500 and 6463 points [2]. Treasury Bond Futures - On July 23, 2025, the 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond futures contracts were in a weak oscillation state. The central bank conducted 150.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 369.6 billion yuan. The Ministry of Finance and the central bank carried out a 100 - billion - yuan central treasury cash management commercial bank time - deposit tender [34]. - On July 24, 2025, the 10 - year treasury bond futures contract T2509 is likely to be in a weak oscillation, with support at 108.32 and 108.18 yuan and resistance at 108.62 and 108.71 yuan; the 30 - year treasury bond futures contract TL2509 is also likely to be in a weak oscillation, with support at 118.6 and 118.2 yuan and resistance at 119.5 and 119.8 yuan [2][36]. Precious Metal Futures - On July 23, 2025, the gold and silver futures contracts showed upward trends. In July 2025, the gold futures continuous contract is expected to be in a strong wide - range oscillation, and the silver futures continuous contract is expected to be in a strong oscillation [40][48]. - On July 24, 2025, the gold futures contract AU2510 is likely to be in a weak oscillation, with support at 781.8 and 776.8 yuan/gram and resistance at 794.9 and 798.8 yuan/gram; the silver futures contract AG2510 is also likely to be in a weak oscillation, with support at 9393 and 9343 yuan/kg and resistance at 9526 and 9550 yuan/kg [2][3]. Base Metal Futures - On July 23, 2025, copper, aluminum oxide, tin, industrial silicon, and other base metal futures contracts had different trends. In July 2025, the copper futures continuous contract is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation, the aluminum oxide futures continuous contract is expected to be in a strong oscillation, and the tin futures continuous contract is expected to be in a strong wide - range oscillation [50][55][56]. - On July 24, 2025, the copper futures contract CU2509 is likely to be in a strong oscillation, the aluminum oxide futures contract AO2509 is likely to be in a wide - range oscillation, and the tin futures contract SN2508 is likely to be in a strong oscillation [2][3]. Energy and Chemical Futures - On July 23, 2025, coking coal, glass, soda ash, crude oil, PTA, PVC, methanol, and other energy and chemical futures contracts had different trends. In July 2025, the crude oil futures continuous contract is expected to be in a strong wide - range oscillation [85][91]. - On July 24, 2025, the coking coal futures contract JM2509 is likely to be in a strong wide - range oscillation, the glass futures contract FG509 is likely to be in a strong wide - range oscillation, the soda ash futures contract SA509 is likely to be in a weak oscillation, the crude oil futures contract SC2509 is likely to be in a strong oscillation, the PTA futures contract TA509 is likely to be in an oscillation adjustment, the PVC futures contract V2509 is likely to be in a strong oscillation, and the methanol futures contract MA509 is likely to be in a strong oscillation [2][3][6]. Agricultural Product Futures - On July 23, 2025, soybean meal and palm oil futures contracts showed upward trends. In July 2025, the iron ore futures continuous contract is expected to be in a strong oscillation, and the rebar futures continuous contract is expected to be in a strong oscillation [70][78][101]. - On July 24, 2025, the soybean meal futures contract M2509 is likely to be in a weak oscillation, the palm oil futures contract P2509 is likely to be in a wide - range oscillation, the rebar futures contract RB2510 is likely to be in a weak oscillation, the hot - rolled coil futures contract HC2510 is likely to be in a weak oscillation, and the iron ore futures contract I2509 is likely to be in a weak oscillation [2][3][6].