2026年1月，银行间外汇市场交投活跃，全市场日均成交量同比、环比均明显增长。与此同时，境 内外汇差维持正值，即期发起方基本维持净卖汇方向，各类型机构交易方向延续不变。 中国外汇交易中心（以下简称"交易中心"）发布的最新数据显示，1月银行间外汇市场日均交易量 2175.37亿美元，同比增长16.50%，环比增长16.77%。各市场成交放量，人民币外汇市场日均交易量为 1637.43亿美元，同比增长15.63%，环比增长13.67%；外币对市场和外币利率市场交易活跃，日均环比 增速均在25%以上。 境内外汇差维持正值 人民币对美元汇率延续走升，1月末升至6.95关口。 1月，各期限掉期点整体下行。1年期期限掉期点月末收于-1222个基点，较上月末下行97个基点； 其余中短期限掉期点小幅下探。从驱动因素看，根据掉期点定价公式，1年期掉期点走低97个基点，可 依次分解为利率因素、汇率因素、市场供需因素分别导致掉期点下跌76个基点、上涨9个基点、下跌30 个基点，反映出1月推动掉期点下行主要受利差走阔影响。同时，本月1年期掉期点与利率平价理论值差 值维持低位，月均值下降4个基点至208个基点附近，也反映出掉期市场买入 ...

Core Views - The report highlights that the U.S. inflation exceeded expectations, and the nomination of the new Federal Reserve Chairman has caused short-term disturbances in the market. Specifically, the MSCI global index rose by 0.65%, while U.S. stocks experienced slight adjustments. The S&P 500 increased by 0.3%, while the Nasdaq, Dow Jones, and Russell 2000 indices fell by 0.2%, 0.4%, and 2.1% respectively [2][13][23] - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for December was reported at 3.0%, surpassing the market expectation of 2.8%. This data is crucial for monetary policy as several components of the PPI will be included in the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, potentially influencing future interest rate decisions [2][8] - The Federal Reserve's decision to pause interest rate cuts aligns with market expectations. On January 29, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75%. The meeting indicated a slightly improved view of the economic situation, changing the description of economic activity from "moderate" to "steady" expansion [2][8] - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman by Trump has led to market fluctuations. Warsh criticized the Fed's quantitative easing policies, leading to perceptions of a hawkish stance on interest rates. However, he supports rate cuts and believes the current pace of cuts is too slow [2][8] - The report suggests that the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is influenced by Trump's statements, leading to increased volatility in the U.S. stock market. The dollar may strengthen, while gold, despite benefiting from safe-haven demand, may experience increased volatility due to profit-taking and fluctuating rate cut expectations [2][8] Market Overview - In the bond market, the 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury yields changed by 2 basis points and 8 basis points to 4.26% and 3.52% respectively [16] - In commodities and foreign exchange, the U.S. dollar index fell by 0.40% to 97.12. COMEX gold and silver prices decreased by 1.52% and 17.44%, while ICE Brent crude oil rose by 6.71% [16][14] - The Hong Kong stock market saw overall gains, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Composite Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Stock Connect rising by 2.4%, 1.8%, 1.7%, and 1.9% respectively. However, the Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 1.4% [32][28] Sector Performance - In the U.S. stock market, the energy sector (3.9%), communication services (3.8%), and utilities (1.7%) showed relatively good performance, while healthcare (-1.7%), consumer discretionary (-1.4%), and materials (-1.2%) experienced declines [27] - The report indicates that online education (6.6%), Chinese education training (4.3%), U.S. infrastructure stocks (3.7%), and Tesla (3.4%) were among the leading concept indices [27][24] Hong Kong Market Insights - The report notes that the Hong Kong stock market is currently outperforming the U.S. market, driven by an increase in domestic risk appetite. The current valuation of the Hong Kong stock market remains attractive, with potential for upward movement [2][32] - The report recommends focusing on sectors with relative valuation advantages that are favored by foreign and southbound capital, including information technology, discretionary consumption, and healthcare [2][32]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision to pause interest rate cuts reflects a cautious approach due to persistent inflation and previous controversial rate cuts, indicating a preference for stability over hasty actions [1][3] - Market reactions show mixed responses, with major indices fluctuating, suggesting uncertainty among investors as they seek the next opportunity [3][5] - The tech sector continues to exhibit divergence during earnings season, with storage-related stocks benefiting from strong AI demand, while established companies like Microsoft face volatility despite solid performance [5][9] Group 2 - The recent surge in gold prices, reaching approximately $5,400 per ounce, indicates a collective flight to safety amid inflation and geopolitical concerns, highlighting market skepticism towards monetary policy sustainability [7][9] - Silver also experienced significant price increases, reflecting a rapid shift in market sentiment regarding inflation and monetary easing, as well as geopolitical risks [9][11] - The current financial climate reveals a dichotomy between optimism in the stock market and fear reflected in precious metal prices, suggesting a complex economic landscape [9][13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In January 2026, copper prices showed significant volatility and a generally strong performance. The price increase was driven by multiple factors including macro - liquidity expectations, supply constraints at the mine end, and positive future demand prospects. The market has entered a stage dominated by strong expectations. However, the risk of overheating in the market is accumulating, and sharp fluctuations due to a rapid reversal of sentiment should be highly vigilant. It is recommended to take a bullish approach on dips [7][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In January, copper prices were generally strong. At the beginning of the month, prices rose rapidly, reaching 105,320 yuan on January 6th, then entered a high - level consolidation phase. On January 23rd, the upward trend resumed, and on January 29th, the main contract of Shanghai copper (2603) once broke through the 110,000 yuan/ton mark [9][10]. 2. Macro - economic Analysis 2.1 United States - The US economic data is mixed. In December 2025, the seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, lower than the expected 60,000 and the previous value of 64,000. The unemployment rate in December was 4.4%, slightly lower than the market expectation of 4.5%. The third - quarter GDP in 2025 had an annualized quarter - on - quarter growth of 4.4%, higher than the initial value. The core PCE price index in November increased by 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, both in line with expectations. The number of initial jobless claims last week was 200,000, lower than the expected 210,000 [13]. - The Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75%. After three consecutive 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts, it paused its actions, which was in line with market expectations. Fed Chair Powell's term ends on May 15th, and the new chair is expected to be either Reed or Walsh. It is anticipated that they will follow Trump's idea of significant monetary easing and continuous interest rate cuts, and another interest rate cut cycle may come in the second half of 2026, which may drive a new round of increases in non - ferrous metals [13]. - Since the New Year's Day, frequent geopolitical events led by the US, such as military actions against Venezuela, tense situation in Iran, and the Greenland issue, have reduced market risk appetite and exerted downward pressure on copper prices. These events have entered a more complex stage, and the future US national security strategy may lead to more geopolitical contradictions and risks [15][16]. 2.2 China - China's central bank maintained the one - year and five - year loan prime rates (LPR) at 3% and 3.5% respectively for eight consecutive months. In 2025, China's GDP increased by 5% year - on - year, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan. The central bank governor stated that in 2026, China would continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, with room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. The first batch of 936 billion yuan in ultra - long - term special treasury bonds has been issued to support equipment renewal projects, which are expected to drive total investment of over 4600 billion yuan [20]. 3. Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Supply - At the beginning of 2026, the global copper mine supply remained fragile. Labor disputes at the Mantoverde copper - gold mine in northern Chile have not been fully resolved, and Southern Copper has lowered its 2026 production target due to declining ore grades in Peruvian mines. In addition, the supply chain in some African regions has been affected by geopolitical situations, and the output of large mines such as Grasberg in Indonesia is still restricted by previous accidents. These factors have strengthened the market's long - term expectation of tight raw material supply [22]. - As of January 28th, the spot processing fee for copper concentrates was - 50.2 US dollars/ton, remaining in a deep negative range. The China Smelters Purchase Team (CSPT) has effectively abandoned the quarterly guidance price setting, reflecting the extreme shortage of copper concentrate supply. The extremely low processing fees are driving substantial adjustments in the industry, with major smelting enterprises' joint production cuts moving from proposals to implementation. The supply of scrap copper is also temporarily tight due to import policy and tax adjustments, which has further exacerbated the structural pressure on raw material sources at the smelting end [25]. 3.2 Inventory - Domestic copper inventories have been continuously increasing, and COMEX copper inventories have also been piling up. As of January 23rd, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 225,900 tons, with a cumulative increase of over 50% since the beginning of the year. As of January 28th, the COMEX copper inventory was 572,300 tons, still at a historical high. The domestic social inventory is at a high level, indicating that downstream acceptance of high copper prices is limited [28]. 3.3 Production - In December 2025, China's refined copper (electrolytic copper) production was 1.326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.1%. The cumulative production from January to December was 14.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%. In January 2026, 5 smelters had maintenance plans, involving a rough - smelting capacity of 1.05 million tons, with an expected impact of about 19,000 tons. Only one of the two smelters originally planned to start production in January was able to do so on time, and the other was postponed to the end of March or early April [31]. 3.4 Import - In December 2025, China's scrap copper imports were 239,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.81% and a year - on - year increase of 9.90%, reaching a new monthly high for the year. Asian countries remained the main suppliers, with Japan still at the top, Thailand's supply increasing month - on - month, and South Korea's supply decreasing significantly. Smelters have strengthened their procurement of scrap copper due to the tight supply of copper mines [34]. 3.5 Downstream Consumption - In December 2025, the production of domestic refined copper rods was 687,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.61%. The production capacity utilization rate was 51.10%, a month - on - month decrease of 12.22% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.06%. In January 2026, the production of refined copper rods was expected to be 755,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.97%. The production capacity utilization rate was 53.97%, a month - on - month increase of 2.88% and a year - on - year increase of 5.46%. However, due to the extreme copper price movement in January, the overall increase in production was limited [39]. - In 2025, China's automobile production and sales both exceeded 34 million units, reaching a new historical high. New energy vehicle production and sales both exceeded 16 million units, accounting for over 50% of domestic new car sales. In December 2025, the newly - installed photovoltaic capacity decreased significantly, with a year - on - year decrease of 43.3% [46].

1. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks are the core factors affecting the crude oil market. The escalation of US - Iran tensions may lead to supply disruptions and drive up oil prices. If the situation eases, the risk premium in oil prices may quickly disappear. The upside of oil prices may be limited if the situation does not further escalate, but short - term pulse - type price increases may occur due to unexpected events. It is recommended to track geopolitical developments [54] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In January, the crude oil market was strong under geopolitical influence. At the beginning of the month, the US raid on Venezuela and the detention of President Maduro raised concerns about supply disruptions, supporting short - term price increases. Then, the US hinted at relaxing sanctions on Venezuela, causing a drop in oil prices. Subsequently, rising Middle - East geopolitical risks, such as Trump's military threat to Iran and the deployment of US warships, pushed up oil prices again [7] 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1 Geopolitical Tensions - The US detained Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife. A large number of US military planes flew to Europe, and Iran strengthened its combat readiness. Trump is considering new major strikes against Iran. As the US completes military deployment in the Middle East, the risk of intensified geopolitical tensions is rising. The way of US military intervention will determine the impact on oil prices [10] - The US, Russia, and Ukraine held their first tripartite talks, but there were still significant differences on the issue of Ukrainian territory. The situation is expected to continue with a combination of fighting and negotiation, and the direct impact on oil prices is currently limited [11] 3.2.2 OPEC+ Production Policy - OPEC+ continued to suspend production increases in January and reaffirmed the plan to pause production increases in the first quarter. The total OPEC+ crude oil production in December decreased compared to November. The suspension of production increases and over - quota cuts support oil prices. Attention should be paid to the potential impact of rising oil prices and Middle - East tensions on OPEC+ production policies [14] 3.2.3 Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts, but there were internal disagreements. The Fed upgraded its assessment of the US economy. Powell said that interest rate cuts depend on the labor market. Although the market has priced in the pause of rate cuts, expectations of future rate cuts may rise due to Trump's potential appointment of a new Fed chairman [17] 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Supply - OPEC's crude oil production increased in December, but the growth rate slowed down. After the end of the first - quarter production - increase suspension, attention should be paid to changes in OPEC+ production policies [18] - US crude oil production decreased from the previous month as of January 23, and is expected to remain stable at a high level [21] - The number of US oil rigs decreased slightly, and it is expected to remain at a low level [24] 3.3.2 Demand - In December, the US manufacturing PMI decreased and was below the boom - bust line, which suppressed crude oil demand to some extent. The US refinery utilization rate decreased seasonally, but is expected to rise in the second quarter [26][31] - In December, China's manufacturing PMI increased and was above the boom - bust line. The production side was relatively stable, but the demand side was weak. The operating rates of Chinese refineries showed a differentiation trend, and overall domestic crude oil consumption is expected to slightly improve [39][43] 3.3.3 Inventory - The US EIA crude oil inventory faced the pressure of seasonal accumulation. The Cushing crude oil inventory decreased slightly, and the gasoline inventory reached an inflection point [48][52]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The current asphalt market shows a typical pattern of "strong expectations, weak reality." The upward movement of the futures market is mainly driven by the expected increase in raw material costs due to geopolitical factors, while the spot market is constrained by weak fundamentals, leading to a significant weakening of the basis. The deeply discounted structure may attract arbitrage funds, potentially bringing selling pressure to far - month contracts. The main upward driver for prices remains the cost side, and the key risk lies in the confirmation of the "weak reality" [54]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - In January, affected by tight raw materials and strong oil prices, asphalt prices rebounded from the bottom, with a cumulative increase of 14.5% since the beginning of the year. Tensions in the Middle East and restricted imports of diluted asphalt supported the market [6]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - **Geopolitical Tensions**: The risk of intensified geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has increased, with potential impacts on the oil market. The outcome of US military intervention will determine the direction of oil prices. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues in a pattern of "fighting while negotiating," with limited short - term direct impact on oil prices [9][10]. - **OPEC+ Policy**: OPEC+ continued to suspend production increases in January and reaffirmed the plan to suspend production increases in the first quarter. The group's crude oil production decreased month - on - month in December. The suspension of production increases provides support for oil prices [13]. - **Fed Policy**: The Fed paused interest rate cuts, but there were internal disagreements. The market expects no interest rate cuts in the next two meetings under Powell, but Trump's potential new Fed chair appointment may increase the market's expectation of rate cuts [16]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: In January, domestic asphalt production decreased month - on - month, and refinery operating rates also declined. If raw material imports are restricted, the cost of the industry may rise, and the operations of local refineries may be restricted [17][23]. - **Demand**: In January, domestic asphalt shipments decreased month - on - month, and the utilization rate of modified asphalt production capacity declined seasonally. The demand is expected to pick up after the Spring Festival [25][27]. - **Imports and Exports**: In December, asphalt imports decreased month - on - month with a slight decline in the average import price, while exports increased month - on - month with a slight decline in the average export price [32][37]. - **Inventory**: In January, factory inventories increased slightly, and social inventories entered a cumulative cycle. Factory inventories may face further accumulation pressure in the off - season [42][46]. - **Price Difference**: In January, the cracking spread of asphalt remained high, and the processing profit of diluted asphalt rebounded. The basis of asphalt weakened significantly under the "strong expectations, weak reality" background [50].

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ooo[Table_ReportInfo] 2026 年 01 月 30 日 证券研究报告•宏观定期报告 宏观周报（1.26-1.30） 工业企业利润稳健增长，美联储如期暂停降息 摘要 [Table_Summary] 一周大事记 国内：工业企业利润增速转正，税制改革聚焦科技和制造业。1 月 26 日，商 务部宣布将启动建设数字贸易示范区，同时完善跨境服务贸易负面清单管理， 数字贸易和服务贸易领域将成为外贸稳增长的重要支撑；27日，数据显示 2025 年全年工业企业利润同比增长 0.6%，高技术制造业等新兴领域增速提升明显， 2026 年全年工业企业利润有望稳中有升；28日，全国税务工作会议召开，2025 年全国税费总额达 33.1 万亿元、同比增 0.9%。2026 年税制改革的核心是平 衡央地财政关系、优化税制结构，相关政策效应释放后，地方税收基础将进一 步巩固；同日，国资委在国新办新闻发布会上介绍 2025年国资央企发展情况， 并明确了支持新兴产业和推进央企并购重组的目标，后续国资委与中央企业将 推动国有资本向新兴产业集聚，将央企打造成培养新质生产力的主力军。 海外：美日联合干预汇市，美联储如期暂停降息。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides trading suggestions for various futures products, including "long - term bullish, buy on dips" for stock indices, "sideways movement" for treasury bonds, etc. [1][5] Core Views - The report analyzes multiple futures markets, including macro - finance, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, cotton - textile industry chain, and agricultural livestock. It provides trading suggestions and market analysis for each product based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - economic conditions, and geopolitical events. [1][5][7] Summary by Category Macro - Finance - **Stock Indices**: Long - term bullish, buy on dips. Market is resilient, influenced by factors like Fed's policy, geopolitical events, and real - estate policy. [1][5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Sideways movement. There is no significant explicit negative factor, but there is limited downward space for bond yields without more capital inflow. [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. Coal market shows short - term fluctuations, but price increase sustainability is limited due to factors like weak downstream demand and stable supply. [7][8] - **Rebar**: Range trading. Futures price is slightly higher than off - peak electricity cost of electric arc furnace and lower than peak electricity cost. Supply - demand contradiction is not significant in the short term. [8] - **Glass**: Hold off. Supply is stable, demand is weak in the north and has local support in the south. There is a risk of production - sales decline before the Spring Festival. [9][10] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Hold off or hold long positions with light positions and roll. Macro - factors support prices, but fundamentals are weak. There is a risk of callback before the Spring Festival. [11] - **Aluminum**: Strengthen observation. Supply is relatively stable, demand is entering the off - season, and prices may continue high - level adjustment. [13] - **Nickel**: Hold off. Indonesian quota reduction boosts sentiment, but fundamentals are weak. Price increase may be fully priced. [14][15] - **Tin**: Range trading or take profit on previous long positions. Supply is tight, consumption is in a recovery trend, and prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. [15] - **Gold**: Range trading. Geopolitical tensions and Fed's policy affect prices. Mid - term price center moves up. [17] - **Silver**: Bullish. Similar to gold, geopolitical and economic factors drive prices up. Mid - term price center moves up. [16][17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound. Supply is affected by mine risks, demand is strong, and prices are expected to be bullish. [18][19] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Range trading. Cost is low, supply is high, domestic demand is weak, and export is a key factor. Low - level may have been reached, long - term long - position thinking. [19] - **Caustic Soda**: Hold off. Demand is weak, supply is high, and there is short - term delivery pressure. [21] - **Styrene**: Range trading. Price rebounds due to export and maintenance, but valuation is high. Long - term, pay attention to cost and supply - demand improvement. [21] - **Rubber**: Range trading. Supply is expected to shrink seasonally, cost supports prices, but there is a risk of callback. [23] - **Urea**: Range trading. Supply is increasing, demand from compound fertilizer and other industries supports prices, and prices are expected to move sideways. [25] - **Methanol**: Range trading. Supply decreases, demand from olefin production and traditional downstream is weak, and prices are affected by geopolitical and port factors. [26][27] - **Polyolefins**: Bearish sideways. Supply increases, demand from PE downstream declines, and PP has some support. Prices are expected to be weak. [27] - **Soda Ash**: Hold off. Supply is expected to contract, demand from downstream is mixed, and cost supports prices. [28] Cotton - Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Sideways adjustment. Global cotton supply decreases and demand increases, but internal - external price difference suppresses domestic prices. [28] - **Apples**: Sideways movement. Market is generally stable and weak, with different trading situations in different regions. [30] - **Jujubes**: Sideways movement. Raw material acquisition in the production area is based on quality, with a high - quality - high - price principle. [30] Agricultural Livestock - **Pigs**: Bottom - building. Short - term price fluctuations are limited, and long - term price increase is cautious. Short - term, short on rallies for off - season contracts; long - term, pay attention to capacity reduction. [31][33] - **Eggs**: Rebound from low levels. Current valuation is high, and it is recommended to hedge post - festival contracts on rallies. [34][35] - **Corn**: Upside limited. Short - term supply - demand is balanced, and long - term supply - demand is relatively loose. [36][37] - **Soybean Meal**: Sideways at low levels. Short - term, M2603 contract moves sideways; long - term, 05 contract is under pressure. [37] - **Oils**: Bullish sideways. Fundamental factors support price increases, but the upward momentum may weaken over time. [37][43]

隔夜，现货黄金收盘暴涨235.97美元，涨幅4.55%，报5417.07美元。今日亚市盘中，黄金突然暴涨，一度飙升至5594.77美元，目前在5505美元附 近徘徊。 国际金价的飙升迅速传导至国内市场，国内部分主流金饰品牌报价刷新1700元/克，创下历史新高，单日上涨百元左右。 白银方面，现货白银随黄金上行，最终收涨3.97%，报116.77美元。今日亚市盘中，白银延续涨势，目前在116美元附近徘徊。 美联储暂停降息！ 隔夜，美股三大指数收盘涨跌互现，截至收盘，道指涨0.02%，标普500指数跌0.01%，纳指涨0.17%。 消息面上，美联储"按兵不动"。 北京时间1月29日凌晨3点，美联储宣布，将联邦基金利率区间维持在3.50%—3.75%不变，符合市场普遍预期。这是美联储自2025年9月起连续三 次会议降息后首次暂停行动。 本次暂停降息的决策没能得到全体FOMC投票委员的一致支持。FOMC声明指出，在12名FOMC投票委员中，有两人投出了反对票，分别是美联 储理事斯蒂芬·米兰和克里斯托弗·沃勒，他们都倾向于降息25个基点。 美联储已连续五次FOMC会议都出现反对票，这凸显美联储内部分歧愈发严重。其中，米兰 ...