巴西媒体综合报道，12月10日以来，圣保罗大区发生的大范围停电持续冲击当地经济，商贸和服务 行业损失不断扩大。圣保罗州商品、服务和旅游联合会预计，总损失可达15亿雷亚尔，其中服务业约损 失10亿雷亚尔、商贸约损失5.1亿雷亚尔，若计入库存和固定成本，实际影响可能更高。圣保罗商业协 会表示，商贸领域两天内销售额损失约5170万雷亚尔。州酒店、餐厅和酒吧联合会估计超5000家企业受 影响，相关损失已超1亿雷亚尔。 （原标题：圣保罗大范围停电或导致商贸和服务行业损失15亿雷亚尔） ...

Group 1 - The overall asset performance indicates that various asset classes have entered a period of fluctuation, with the equity market experiencing a high-level consolidation phase, primarily driven by the technology sector, while consumer and cyclical sectors remain weak [1][6]. - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut was weaker than expected, limiting its positive impact on the U.S. and global economies, which in turn affects the capital markets [1][6]. - The Central Economic Work Conference in China reiterated a stable growth approach, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and improving investment, although the implementation of these policies may take time to materialize [2][10]. Group 2 - The A-share market is currently in a high-level consolidation phase, with limited substantial positive news and a preference for stability as the new year approaches [2][10]. - The report suggests a "barbell strategy" for asset allocation, recommending maintaining positions in the technology sector while cautiously considering opportunities in the consumer sector due to recent positive macro data [2][11]. - The technology sector is expected to remain a core driver of market performance, with significant opportunities arising from national competition and domestic innovation [10][11]. Group 3 - The bond market is following the trends of the equity market, showing a clear negative correlation, and is expected to remain under pressure without significant positive catalysts [3][32]. - The bond market's configuration suggests limited upward potential in the short term, but it may serve as a stabilizing option against equity market volatility [32]. Group 4 - The commodity market is experiencing a return to a fluctuating trend, with precious metals like silver supporting the upward movement of the precious metals index, while energy and chemical commodities are underperforming [4][41]. - The report anticipates that gold may continue to rise in the long term, driven by a decoupling from the U.S. dollar, although the overall strength of the commodity market will depend on the performance of metals and agricultural products [41][45].

2025年临近尾声，2026年大类资产配置提上日程。2026年，A股市场将呈现怎样的走势？哪类资产性价比更高？该如何构建组合以把握机会、抵御潜在风 险？ 国泰基金曾辉：国内A股可能明年上半年继续震荡，下半年在经济复苏预期的推动下再上一个台阶。 诺德基金郑源：在香港上市的内地企业股价或将会同时受益于国内经济上行、全球流动性宽松，以及估值优势，值得关注。 平安基金吴心洋：展望2026年，对国内权益、海外权益、黄金等商品、美债均偏乐观，国内债市预计震荡为主。 嘉实基金赵迁：2026年最大的不确定性因素来自海外AI叙事的持续性和通胀背景下的美联储决策。 华商基金孙志远：2026年更倾向于配置中国的权益资产，尤其是与价格相关度高的板块。 为此，中国基金报记者采访了东方红资产管理董事总经理、多元投资部总经理、基金经理邓炯鹏，国泰基金多资产配置部负责人曾辉，诺德基金FOF投资 总监郑源，华商基金资产配置部总经理、华商安远稳进一年持有混合（FOF）基金经理孙志远，嘉实基金FOF基金经理赵迁，平安基金FOF投资部基金经 理吴心洋等六位公募FOF基金经理，共同研判2026年的投资脉络和市场机会。 东方红资产管理邓炯鹏：2026年 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around global asset allocation, focusing on the stock and gold markets, particularly in the context of China and the United States. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Global Market Trends**: The global stock and gold markets are benefiting from a technological revolution, with growth stocks outperforming value stocks. Chinese stocks are performing better than U.S. stocks. Recommendations include overweighting gold and Chinese tech stocks while underweighting commodities and U.S. dollar assets, a strategy that has been validated by market prices [1][2][28]. 2. **Current Market Conditions**: U.S., A-share, and Hong Kong stocks are in a bull market, with A-share and Hong Kong stocks nearing historical medians. The U.S. stock market and gold have had prolonged bull markets but still have room for growth. The key to determining the peak of Chinese stocks lies in economic policies, liquidity, and earnings valuations [1][6][18]. 3. **Investment Concerns for 2026**: Two main concerns for 2026 are whether the bull markets in stocks and gold can continue and what measures to take if market conditions change. Recent pullbacks in Chinese, U.S. stocks, and gold indicate that the market is contemplating potential changes in future trends [3][4]. 4. **Valuation Analysis**: Current valuations show that gold, U.S. stocks, and Chinese bonds are relatively high, while U.S. bonds and commodities are undervalued. A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are at moderate valuations. The geopolitical events can impact markets, typically negatively affecting stocks while boosting gold and commodities [4][22][23]. 5. **Asset Class Switching Patterns**: Historical data indicates that U.S. stocks have a longer bull market duration (84% of the time) compared to the more volatile Chinese stocks. The switching patterns of different asset classes require careful monitoring of market peaks [5][6]. 6. **Top Prediction Challenges**: Predicting market tops is complicated by various bullish narratives and the difficulty of timely decision-making even when correct signals are received. The need for a multi-dimensional approach to analyze market signals is emphasized [10][11][12]. 7. **Impact of U.S. Federal Reserve Policies**: The Fed's monetary policy is crucial for asset prices. Current loose policies support asset prices, but potential tightening could pressure both stocks and gold. The Fed's personnel changes may lead to a more dovish stance in the long term [20][21]. 8. **China's Economic Policy Influence**: China's incremental policies must meet expectations to avoid negative impacts on macro liquidity. The government is committed to stabilizing growth, which is expected to support the economy and maintain stable M1 and M2 growth rates [21][24]. 9. **Geopolitical Events**: Recent geopolitical events, such as trade wars, have significantly influenced market trends, generally negatively impacting stocks while benefiting gold and commodities [23]. 10. **Valuation Concerns**: High valuations in gold and U.S. stocks increase the risk of market corrections. However, there is no clear evidence that these factors will reverse the current bull market trends, suggesting a continued overweight in Chinese stocks and gold [25][28]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Commodity Allocation Strategy**: Increasing commodity allocations is recommended to hedge against potential changes in stock and gold bull markets. Commodities are currently undervalued and could benefit from various scenarios, including better-than-expected economic performance or geopolitical shocks [26][29]. 2. **Specific Asset Class Recommendations**: - **Chinese Stocks**: Maintain an overweight position with a more balanced style, anticipating value and cyclical sectors to catch up. - **Chinese Bonds**: Downgrade from standard to underweight due to better opportunities in other assets. - **U.S. Stocks**: Maintain a standard allocation, given the high valuations and better performance of non-dollar assets. - **Gold**: Continue to overweight but be cautious of volatility, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips rather than chasing prices [27][29].

Group 1 - The article discusses the importance of identifying market tops for Chinese stocks and gold, emphasizing that economic and policy signals are crucial for making accurate predictions [1][10][40] - It highlights that the U.S. stock market has a long bull market duration, while Chinese stocks experience more frequent bull-bear switches, making timing more critical for Chinese stocks [5][10] - The analysis indicates that gold's bull and bear markets are lengthy with low switching frequency, suggesting that identifying tops is also significant for gold [1][5] Group 2 - Four key factors are identified that could potentially alter the bull market trends for stocks and gold in 2026: growth direction, tightening policies, high valuations, and geopolitical shocks [2][39] - The current economic conditions in China are characterized as a "weak recovery," while the U.S. is moving towards "stagflation," which could impact the performance of stocks and gold differently [2][41] - The article suggests that while there are no immediate signals indicating a top for the current bull markets, high valuations for gold may lead to increased volatility in the future [26][36][40] Group 3 - The asset allocation recommendation includes overweighting Chinese stocks and gold, while maintaining a neutral position in U.S. stocks and bonds, and adjusting commodity exposure to neutral [3][4] - The rationale for these recommendations is based on the ongoing AI technology wave and liquidity conditions benefiting Chinese stocks, while gold is supported by the current monetary policy environment [3][4] - The article notes that despite potential volatility, there are no clear signals indicating a market top for Chinese stocks or gold at this time [25][36]

- The report tracks various market factors, including stock market, commodity market, options market, and convertible bond market, focusing on their weekly performance and trends[1][3][12] - **Stock Market Factors**: The report highlights the following: - **Market Style**: Small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks, and value stocks outperformed growth stocks. Both small-cap and value-growth style volatilities decreased[12][14] - **Market Structure**: Industry excess return dispersion and industry rotation speed increased. The proportion of rising constituent stocks also increased, while the concentration of trading in the top 100 stocks and top 5 industries decreased[12][14] - **Market Activity**: Both market volatility and turnover rate declined[13][14] - **Commodity Market Factors**: Key observations include: - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of agricultural products decreased, while other sectors showed minimal changes[24][31] - **Basis Momentum**: Basis momentum increased across all sectors[24][31] - **Volatility**: Volatility decreased across all sectors except agricultural products[24][31] - **Liquidity**: Liquidity declined across all sectors[24][31] - **Options Market Factors**: The implied volatility levels of SSE 50 and CSI 1000 options decreased. However, the put-call open interest ratio increased. Additionally, the skewness of both put and call options for SSE 50 rose significantly[35] - **Convertible Bond Market Factors**: The convertible bond market performed well, with the following trends: - The premium rate of bonds priced around 100 yuan increased significantly, nearing the 90th percentile of the past year[37] - The premium rate of pure debt bonds also slightly increased, while the proportion of low premium rate bonds remained stable[37] - Weekly trading volume continued to recover[37]

Group 1 - The performance of major global stock indices declined due to multiple factors including the cooling of interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, the U.S. government shutdown leading to missing economic data, and a valuation correction in the tech sector [1] - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant drop, with the Nasdaq index falling 3.04%, marking its worst weekly performance since April, driven by concerns over AI tech stock bubbles and liquidity pressures from the government shutdown [1] - In the bond market, global government bond yields mostly rose, with U.S. Treasury yields fluctuating upward amid liquidity tightening and policy expectation dynamics [1] Group 2 - Domestic economic indicators showed positive signs with the resumption of U.S.-China trade talks, the central bank maintaining liquidity, and a rise in October CPI year-on-year, alleviating deflation concerns [2][4] - The A-share market experienced a slight increase despite reduced trading volume, with the Shanghai Composite Index touching 4000 points again during the week [2] - The issuance of $4 billion in sovereign bonds by China, with a subscription rate of 30 times, indicates a potential new channel for dollar liquidity [5] Group 3 - The outlook for assets suggests a stable economic environment with narrow fluctuations in stocks, bonds, and currencies, as the yuan remains relatively stable without strong support for a sustained dollar rise [6] - The stock market is expected to experience slight fluctuations and consolidation due to a lack of strong new policy expectations [7] - The bond market is anticipated to show stable fluctuations with a relaxed funding environment and a gradual pace of central bank bond purchases [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of asset allocation over attempting to achieve quick wealth through market timing, advocating for a disciplined investment approach that focuses on high-probability strategies rather than low-probability ones [4][6]. Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategy - The author implemented a three-part asset allocation strategy (6:3:1 for stocks, bonds, and commodities) starting with an initial investment of 50,000 yuan and a weekly investment of 1,000 yuan, achieving a cumulative return of over 16% and an annualized return exceeding 22% with a maximum drawdown of approximately 8% [4][15]. - The article argues that there is no bad time to start asset allocation, as it can yield positive results regardless of market conditions, highlighting that even during periods of high uncertainty, good returns can be achieved [6][15]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Timing - The author notes that at the time of investment, there was significant uncertainty in both domestic and international markets, with high levels of caution among investors due to macroeconomic factors and asset valuations [6][9][10]. - Despite the challenging environment, the author emphasizes that asset allocation does not require precise market timing, as there are always undervalued assets available for investment [14][15]. Group 3: Dollar-Cost Averaging - The article discusses the benefits of dollar-cost averaging, stating that consistent investments can accumulate more shares during market downturns, allowing for better positioning when the market rebounds [19]. - The author experienced significant market volatility over the past year, but through disciplined investing, was able to capture gains without needing to predict market movements [16][18]. Group 4: Adding to Positions - The author identifies specific instances where adding to positions during market downturns proved beneficial, citing three occasions where additional investments were made during significant market declines [20][23]. - The strategy of adding to positions during dips is framed as a way to smooth out costs and enhance overall returns [24][25].

- The report tracks various market environment factors, including stock market factors, commodity market factors, options market factors, and convertible bond market factors [1][7][11] - **Stock Market Factors**: - **Market Style**: The style of large-cap and small-cap stocks was balanced, while the value-growth style leaned towards growth [11][13] - **Market Style Volatility**: Both large-cap/small-cap and value-growth style volatilities increased [11][13] - **Market Structure**: Industry excess return dispersion increased, industry rotation speed decreased, and the proportion of rising constituent stocks increased [11][13] - **Trading Concentration**: The transaction amount of the top 100 stocks slightly decreased, while the transaction amount of the top 5 industries remained unchanged compared to the previous period [11][13] - **Market Activity**: Market volatility increased, and market turnover rate decreased [12][13] - **Commodity Market Factors**: - **Trend Strength**: Precious metals and agricultural products showed a decline in trend strength, while other sectors experienced an increase [26][32] - **Basis Momentum**: Basis momentum increased across all sectors [26][32] - **Volatility**: Volatility rose in all sectors except for the black sector [26][32] - **Liquidity**: Liquidity decreased in precious metals, non-ferrous metals, and agricultural products [26][32] - **Options Market Factors**: - **Implied Volatility**: Implied volatility for the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 indices decreased, reflecting a moderation in market expectations regarding Trump's tariff policies [35] - **Implied Discount Rate**: The implied discount rate for CSI 1000 narrowed, but the market did not turn fully optimistic [35] - **Option Holdings**: Both put and call option holdings increased, indicating persistent market uncertainty [35] - **Convertible Bond Market Factors**: - **Market Recovery**: The convertible bond market showed slight recovery last week [37] - **Valuation**: Pure bond premium rates remained stable, while the premium rate for 100-yuan convertible bonds steadily increased [37] - **Low Premium Convertible Bonds**: The proportion of low premium convertible bonds decreased significantly [37] - **Market Turnover**: Market transaction volume stabilized without further contraction [37]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that after a period of adjustment, the equity market has resumed its upward trend, with the Shenzhen Composite Index and the ChiNext Index reaching new highs for the year [2][10][11] - The market's overall performance has not shown signs of decline despite recent fluctuations, with trading volume remaining above 2 trillion yuan, reflecting strong short-term market sentiment [2][10][11] - Positive macroeconomic indicators, such as recovering PPI data and strong core CPI, along with stable industrial output and retail sales, have provided a solid foundation for market growth [2][10][11] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of core sectors, particularly in the context of a structural market rally driven by performance expectations in the technology innovation sectors [3][11][13] - It suggests a "barbell strategy" for asset allocation, recommending continued investment in strong concepts within the innovation sectors like chips and robotics while also considering defensive positions in metals and gold [5][14] - The report highlights that the current market environment remains favorable for strong sectors, with liquidity at high levels and a lack of negative factors in the medium to long term [3][11][14] Group 3 - The bond market is experiencing a decline as funds flow into equities, making it less attractive for investors, with a recommendation to consider flexible short-term bonds to hedge risks [6][36] - In the commodity market, gold stands out as a strong performer amidst a generally volatile environment, with ongoing central bank purchases reinforcing its investment appeal [7][37] - The report advises maintaining gold positions in the short term while adopting a wait-and-see approach for the medium to long term [8][38]