7 月行业信息思考： "反内卷"对消费量、价、利润基本面的影响 一、 历史镜鉴：16-17 年供给侧改革下的消费利润受到挤压 上一轮供给侧改革时期，尽管需求侧政策推动量增显著，但消费行业对上游资源、原材料带来的成本压力的传导能力明显不足。温和的 价格涨幅无法充分覆盖成本上升，最终导致利润空间受到挤压（利润增速普遍回落），成为改革过程中相对受损的环节。具体来看，1） 量的角度：地产政策放宽力度较大叠加货币政策的宽松在激活房地产需求的同时拉动内需，16-17 年消费者信心指数持续上行，大部分消 费行业 17 年工业增加值的两年复合增速高于 15 年。2）价的角度：消费行业价格普遍小幅上涨，但幅度弱于上游资源、原材料板块，成 本压力难解。3）利润角度：消费行业 17 年的利润总额两年复合增速普遍低于 15 年，而营收增速仍在提速，营收与利润增速之前的劈叉 意味着在供给侧改革深化期消费行业的利润受到挤压。 二、 本轮"反内卷"的启示与推演： 回顾 16-17 年供给侧改革时期，消费行业即使有强劲的棚改货币化需求支撑和"消费升级"带来的品牌溢价空间，多数仍难有效传导上游 成本压力，利润率的下降使得利润增速放缓。对于当下 ...

消费不是简单的交易行为，当消费潜力可以顺畅转化为市场导向、供给能够敏锐捕捉到需求并及时响 应，中国经济必将展现出更强劲的韧性和活力。这场供需之间的双向奔赴，终将汇聚成推动中国经济高 质量发展的澎湃动力。 消费是最终需求，事关经济发展和民生改善。今年以来，我国消费市场保持平稳增长态势，上半年社会 消费品零售总额超24.55万亿元，为做强国内大循环、推动经济持续向好提供了有力支撑。 当前，受外部需求不确定性增加、全球经济增长动能不足等因素影响，我国消费市场正经历深刻的结构 性变化。为此，今年《政府工作报告》将"大力提振消费、提高投资效益，全方位扩大国内需求"列为首 要任务，尤其是在促进消费和投资更好结合，加快补齐内需特别是消费短板，成为今年经济工作的重中 之重。 从上半年消费情况看，有两组数据值得关注：一是全社会消费品零售总额累计增长5%，增速较一季度 提高0.4个百分点，较去年同期提高1.3个百分点；二是最终消费对经济增长的贡献率达52%，其中二季 度贡献率为52.3%，较一季度又提高0.6个百分点，较去年同期提高4.4个百分点，消费对经济发展的基 础性作用进一步显现。 我们乐见消费增速的加快，尤其是不断涌现出 ...

在屡创今年以来新高后，上周A股市场三大股指出现回调。对于市场波动，业内机构认为，支撑市场上 涨的核心逻辑未出现变化，短期扰动带来震荡休整，建议坚定多头思维。 对于后市配置，机构建议聚焦产业趋势确定以及受外部扰动较少的板块，风格上继续偏好科技成长；8 月为中报集中披露期，市场或处于局部热点轮动行情之中，因此建议把握业绩确定性较强的机会。 影响后市投资大事件 央行：推动科技型中小企业贷款较快增长 8月1日，中国人民银行召开2025年下半年工作会议暨常态长效推动中央巡视整改工作推进会，提出综合 运用多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕；引导金融机构保持信贷合理增长，使社会融资规模、货币供 应量增长同经济增长和价格总水平预期目标相匹配；用好科技创新和技术改造再贷款政策，推动科技型 中小企业贷款较快增长。 国家发展改革委：在可持续基础上研究稳妥接续"两新"政策 8月1日，国家发展改革委多位有关部门负责人在新闻发布会上表示，今年"两重"建设项目清单8000亿元 已全部下达完毕；今年第三批690亿元支持消费品以旧换新的超长期特别国债资金已下达完毕，将于10 月份按计划下达第四批690亿元资金；在全方位扩大内需、增强国内大循环韧 ...

Economic Stability and Growth - The city aims to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations through various measures to expand effective demand and enhance economic recovery [2][4] - A special action plan for boosting consumption has been implemented, focusing on increasing income, improving service consumption quality, and enhancing the consumer environment [2][3] Service Consumption Promotion - The city plans to enhance service consumption by improving supply quality, developing cultural and tourism resources, and promoting sports events [2] - The goal is to create a cultural consumption hub and improve the quality of life services [2] Inbound Consumption Expansion - Shanghai received nearly 6.71 million inbound travelers last year, a year-on-year increase of 84%, highlighting the importance of inbound tourism for local consumption [3] - The city aims to optimize the tax refund environment for outbound travelers, with a target of over 3,000 tax refund stores by 2027 [3] New Consumption Cultivation - The city will focus on developing digital consumption, self-care consumption, and the "first launch economy," with over 3,500 brands launching in Shanghai last year [3] - The "Silver Economy" targeting elderly consumers will be promoted, with support for products and services tailored to their needs [3] Investment Expansion - The city has been allocated a new bond quota of 138.6 billion yuan, with a focus on infrastructure, emerging industries, and urban renewal projects [4] - The aim is to expedite project initiation and construction to generate tangible work output [4] Business Environment Reform - The city has launched the 8.0 version of the business environment reform action plan, focusing on optimizing policy services and reducing administrative checks [4][5] - A total of 378 policy items have been made available for enterprises without application, benefiting over 4 million services [4] Technology Innovation and Industry Integration - The city emphasizes the importance of technology and industry innovation as a pathway to develop new productive forces [6] - Plans include increasing high-quality technology supply and supporting basic research funding to rise from 11% to 15% of total R&D expenditure by 2027 [6] Enterprise Innovation Support - The city aims to strengthen the role of enterprises in technology innovation, promoting collaboration between industry, academia, and research [7] - A target of around 20,000 specialized and innovative small and medium-sized enterprises is set for 2030 [7] Open Platform Enhancement - The city is working on enhancing major open platforms to align with international trade rules and improve competitiveness [8] - Specific actions include reforming customs special supervision areas and providing integrated services for enterprises going global [9][10] Public Service Improvement - The city is committed to improving public services, focusing on employment stability and community health services [11][12][13] - Initiatives include enhancing community health service capabilities and ensuring better access to quality medical resources [13]

Core Views - The meeting of the Political Bureau on July 30 emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight, aligning with investor expectations [2][3] - Key areas of focus include expanding domestic demand, prioritizing service consumption, and fostering international competitiveness in technology innovation [2][4][5] Focus Area 1: Expanding Domestic Demand - The meeting highlighted the importance of expanding service consumption as a new growth point while ensuring the improvement of people's livelihoods [4] - Policies may increasingly focus on stimulating service consumption, with potential measures including issuing consumption vouchers and upgrading cultural tourism [4] Focus Area 2: Technology Innovation - Technology innovation remains a focal point, with a shift from specific sectors to nurturing emerging industries with international competitiveness, particularly in the domestic computing power chain [5] - The "anti-involution" narrative has been refined to emphasize lawful governance of chaotic competition and capacity management in key industries [5] Focus Area 3: Capital Market Policies - The meeting stressed enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, aiming to support enterprises at different development stages [6] - There was no separate discussion on real estate policies, indicating that future policy directions need further observation [6]

Funding Sources - Incremental funds since late April have been driven by margin financing and insurance contributions, with significant structural inflows observed since late June[1] - Northbound funds have fluctuated around a market value of CNY 2.3 trillion, with trading activity declining to approximately 6% recently, close to levels seen in early April[1] - Margin financing balance has accelerated since late June, reaching CNY 1.94 trillion by July 24, nearing the historical high of CNY 1.95 trillion from March 2025[1] Market Trends - Market style has shifted from a "barbell" structure to a broader sector expansion, with small-cap stocks showing a steeper upward trend compared to mid and large-cap stocks since mid-July[2] - The average repeat rate of leading concepts from April 7 to July 25 has remained around 16%, indicating a lack of sustained momentum in market hotspots, with rapid rotation of themes occurring every 2 to 3 trading days[2] - Overall market sentiment has improved, with increased trading volume and a more optimistic outlook for the third quarter, despite potential limitations in economic growth compared to the second quarter[2] Sector Selection Strategy - Recommended sectors for investment include those likely to benefit from upcoming policies, such as photovoltaic, coal, and chemical industries, as well as technology sectors like robotics that have shown weaker prior performance[2] - Sectors that have not yet experienced significant upward movement, such as alcoholic beverages, service consumption, and real estate development, are also suggested for balanced investment strategies[2] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include delays in policy implementation, crowded funding risks as margin financing approaches previous highs, and discrepancies between estimated and actual fund positions[2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant growth and transformation of China's consumption market during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing the expansion, quality improvement, innovation, and openness of the market [1][2][4] Group 2 - The consumption market in China is expected to grow from 39.1 trillion yuan in 2020 to 48.3 trillion yuan in 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5%. By the end of this year, the total retail sales are projected to exceed 50 trillion yuan [1] - The retail sales of home appliances have maintained double-digit growth since September last year, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 50.2% in the first half of this year, with a 5.4-fold increase in ownership compared to 2020 [2] - The service consumption expenditure is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 9.6% from 2020 to 2024, outpacing goods consumption, indicating a shift towards higher quality service offerings [2] - New consumption trends are emerging, with innovative retail experiences being developed, such as integrating museums and entertainment into shopping environments, and the rise of digital consumption and AI-driven retail [3] - The import of consumer goods from 2021 to 2024 is projected to reach 7.4 trillion yuan, showcasing China's role as a significant player in the global market [3][4] - The tourism and shopping experience for international visitors is expected to generate a total expenditure of 94.2 billion USD in 2024, reflecting a 77.8% increase, thus converting tourism traffic into shopping growth [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that service consumption is becoming a key driver for economic growth in China, with various regions implementing targeted action plans to boost service consumption [1][2][3] - The action plans from cities like Beijing, Shanxi, and Guangxi focus on enhancing service consumption across six major areas, including culture, tourism, sports, education, health, and domestic services, indicating a strategic shift towards service-oriented economic policies [1][2] - Service consumption is characterized by its stickiness, extensibility, and locality, which not only stimulates employment and innovation but also addresses public concerns and improves quality of life [1][2] Group 2 - The aging population and declining birth rates are increasing the caregiving burden on families, prompting the government to expand services in elderly care, childcare, and domestic services as a means to stimulate consumption and promote social equity [2] - The key to boosting service consumption lies in the coordinated efforts on both supply and demand sides, requiring measures to enhance consumer willingness and improve service quality [2] - Current initiatives reflect a systemic transformation from focusing on total consumption to structural improvements, emphasizing experience upgrades and innovative consumption scenarios [2][3] Group 3 - Service consumption is positioned as a bridge between macroeconomic policies and micro-level living standards, moving from the periphery to the center of economic strategies [3] - The recent local consumption plans are not merely aimed at short-term rebounds but are exploring long-term pathways through supply optimization, experience enhancement, and confidence stimulation [3] - In the context of global consumption slowdown and weak external demand, leveraging service consumption is seen as essential for sustainable economic growth and high-quality development [3]

Group 1: Domestic Circulation and Consumption - Strengthening domestic circulation is a strategic move to ensure stable economic growth, focusing on key areas such as boosting consumption and removing unreasonable restrictions on consumer spending [2][4] - The government aims to implement special actions to stimulate consumption, optimize policies for replacing old consumer goods, and diversify supply to meet increasing consumer demand [4][5] - In 2023, there has been a significant increase in sales of consumer goods due to large-scale equipment updates and policies promoting the replacement of old consumer goods, although there are concerns about the effectiveness of these policies [5] Group 2: New Energy Vehicle Industry - The meeting emphasized the need to regulate the competitive order in the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry, addressing irrational competition and promoting high-quality development [3][8] - Measures will include strengthening cost investigations, price monitoring, and ensuring compliance with payment commitments by key automotive enterprises [8][9] - The industry is facing challenges such as extended payment terms for suppliers, which could hinder technological innovation and sustainable development [9] Group 3: Service Consumption - Service consumption is identified as a key area for boosting overall consumption and expanding domestic demand, with a focus on upgrading sectors like education, healthcare, and entertainment [6][5] - The People's Bank of China has allocated 500 billion yuan for service consumption and elderly care loans to support high-quality supply in these sectors [5] - Experts suggest that removing restrictions such as car purchase limits could significantly enhance consumer spending potential [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that domestic demand remains the primary engine for China's economic growth, with a projected GDP of approximately 140 trillion yuan by 2025, contributing around 30% to global economic growth [1][2] - Over the past four years, China's economic growth averaged 5.5%, with domestic demand contributing an average of 86.4% to this growth [1][2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the implementation of strategies to expand domestic demand, enhance consumption, and improve investment efficiency [1][2] Group 2 - Investment and consumption are mutually reinforcing, with domestic demand being the main driver of China's economic development [2][3] - In the past four years, final consumption contributed an average of 56.2% to economic growth, an increase of 8.6 percentage points compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" period [2] - Investment capital formation contributed an average of 30.2% to economic growth, focusing on addressing key issues in modernization and enhancing long-term development [3] Group 3 - Service consumption has emerged as a new highlight, with service retail sales growing by 6.2% year-on-year in 2024, outpacing goods retail sales by 3 percentage points [4] - Per capita spending on services increased by 7.4% year-on-year, contributing 63% to the growth of per capita consumption expenditure [4] - The share of per capita service consumption in total consumption reached 46.1%, indicating significant growth potential compared to developed countries [4][5] Group 4 - The development of service consumption is expected to create more job opportunities and improve income growth, with a focus on new consumption trends such as the "silver economy" and "ice and snow economy" [7][8] - Policies to promote service consumption have been implemented, including financial support for key service sectors [8] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" includes 102 major infrastructure projects aimed at enhancing economic circulation and improving living standards [9][10] Group 5 - The government aims to address structural issues in consumption, such as the low proportion of consumption in GDP and the high share of state-owned capital in national assets [13][14] - Recommendations include reforms to improve consumer spending, such as adjusting consumption tax structures and enhancing public services for rural populations [13][14] - The focus on "investing in people" through structural reforms is seen as essential for expanding domestic demand and improving income distribution [14]