证券研究报告 | 2026年02月02日 金融工程月报 券商金股 2026 年 2 月投资月报 核心观点 金融工程月报 券商金股股票池上月回顾 2026 年 1 月，卓易信息、宏景科技、圣晖集成等券商金股股票的月度上涨 幅度靠前。 2026 年 1 月，中邮证券、申万宏源证券、华龙证券收益排名前三，月度收 益分别为 18.34%、17.37%、16.64%，同期偏股混合型基金指数收益 7.32%， 沪深 300 指数收益 1.65%。 2026 年以来，中邮证券、申万宏源证券、华龙证券收益排名前三，年度收 益分别为 18.34%、17.37%、16.64%，同期偏股混合型基金指数收益 7.32%， 沪深 300 指数收益 1.65%。 券商金股股票池中选股因子表现 最近一个月，总市值、单季度净利润增速、分析师净上调比例表现较好，盈 余公告后跳空超额、单季度 ROE、日内收益率表现较差； 今年以来，总市值、单季度净利润增速、分析师净上调比例表现较好，盈余 公告后跳空超额、单季度 ROE、日内收益率表现较差。 券商金股股票池本月特征 截至 2026 年 2 月 2 日，共有 41 家券商发布本月金股。在对券商金股 ...

美银证券发表研报指，卡特彼勒2025年业绩表现强劲，管理层对2026年给予较保守指引，投资者普遍认 为其2026年指引审慎，主要由于关税政策对利润率的潜在打击。该行表示对卡特彼勒今年前景变得更为 正面，认为7%的收入增长指引保守，加上积压订单额达到创新高的510亿美元且仍在增加，重申对 其"买入"评级，基于盈利能见度提升，将目标价从708美元上调至735美元。该行指，公司下一阶段增长 建基于机械业务周期的复苏步伐，而目前机械行业已见利好迹象，包括经销商库存过低、矿业订单向好 及建筑设备业务市场份额提升。 ...

中泰证券研报称，2月交易日较少，整体上谨慎乐观，关注板块轮动和结构分化。主要布局思路如下： 一，政策加码、旺季催化、且调整充分的大消费领域有望迎来阶段性估值修复，核心关注线下消费的酒 旅、免税、具备出口逻辑的轻工、纺服，以及作为CPI重点拉动项的 农业。二，"反内卷"主线由政策倡 导逐渐进入供需改善、价格验证阶段， 化工、机械等行业格局优化值得关注。三，科技赛道作为"十五 五" 新质生产力的核心， 人工智能应用、 机器人、 半导体等方向产业催化密集，在市场波动中关注具 备强产业趋势和实质业绩支撑的优质标的。 ...

一、券商金股股票池上月回顾 2026年1月，卓易信息、宏景科技、圣晖集成等券商金股股票的月度上涨幅度靠 前。 2026年1月，中邮证券、申万宏源证券、华龙证券收益排名前三，月度收益分别为 18.34%、17.37%、16.64%，同期偏股混合型基金指数收益7.32%，沪深300指数收 益1.65%。 2026年以来，中邮证券、申万宏源证券、华龙证券收益排名前三，年度收益分别 为18.34%、17.37%、16.64%，同期偏股混合型基金指数收益7.32%，沪深300指数 收益1.65%。 二、券商金股股票池中选股因子表现 最近一个月，总市值、单季度净利润增速、分析师净上调比例表现较好，盈余公 告后跳空超额、单季度ROE、日内收益率表现较差； 今年以来，总市值、单季度净利润增速、分析师净上调比例表现较好，盈余公告 后跳空超额、单季度ROE、日内收益率表现较差。 三、券商金股股票池本月特征 截至2026年2月2日，共有41家券商发布本月金股。在对券商金股股票池进行去重 后，总共有273只A股。 从 绝 对 占 比 来 看 ， 本 期 券 商 金 股 在 电 子 (12.83%) 、 机 械 (9.44%) 、 基 ...

[Table_Title] 专题研究报告 证券研究报告 2026 年 2 月 2 日 国元证券 2026 年 2 月金股组合及投资逻辑 ——2026 年第 2 期 报告要点： 国元月度金股（2026 年 2 月） |  国元月度金股（2026 | 年 月） 2 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行 业 | 公司名称 | 股票代码 | EPS | 收盘价 | PE(TTM) | 推荐人 | | | | 24A | 25E | 26E | | | | 计算机 | 道通科技 | 688208.SH 1.45 1.36 1.74 | | 34.98 | 28.14 | 耿军军 | | 传媒商社 | 恺英网络 | 002517.SZ 0.77 1.02 1.21 | | 24.92 | 27.56 | 李典 | | 电新机械 | 会通股份 | 688219.SH 0.43 0.44 0.56 | | 12.59 | 33.31 | 张帅峰 | | 汽车 | 银轮股份 | 002126.SZ 0.96 1.16 1.49 | | 36.8 ...

廖市无双：风格切换成长轮休，该如何应对？20260201 摘要 市场攻势转弱，需控制风险，关注 20 日均线及外部因素对资源品影响。 配置上，均衡配置警惕度高且位置不高的行业，适当控制科技成长股弹 性，应对短期震荡。 全球资源品价格大幅波动冲击相关资产，中证 500 等面临压力。技术面 显示，中小盘指数或下探，短期内各类资产将继续震荡，需关注技术指 标并及时调整仓位。 有色金属短期面临调整压力，或经历月线级别调整，持续时间较长。建 议对有色金属持谨慎态度，手中持仓者做好止盈，中线持有者可选择回 打大均线时买入。 科技成长板块趋弱，上证指数上行斜率放缓，若跌破 20 日均线将进入 横盘整理。春节前大概率进入偏强震荡阶段，资金充裕且抄底资金力度 较强。 春节前后市场风格切换，权重指数优于中小盘成长指数。全球资源品下 跌冲击中小盘指数，有色板块出问题会降低市场风险偏好，引发共振调 整。 Q&A 近期市场的边际变化较大，尤其是全球市场出现了几十年以来难得一见的情况。 请问当前市场状况如何，投资者应如何应对？ 近期市场确实发生了显著变化。1 月前三周，中小盘指数表现较好，如中证 500、中证 1,000、国证 2000 ...

精测电子：扭亏为盈，半导体量测进入收获期。 2025年预计归母净利8，000~9，000万元，同比扭亏；扣非净利2，166~3，166万元，较24年大幅改善。 机械行业业绩预告要点 公司业绩反转主要系：1）半导体量测业绩兑现：膜厚、OCD等核心产品国内领先，主力产品已完成7nm先进制程 交付验收，先进制程订单成为核心驱动力。 2）显示业务稳步复苏：受益于G8.6代线及OL 机械行业业绩预告要点 精测电子：扭亏为盈，半导体量测进入收获期。 2025年预计归母净利8，000~9，000万元，同比扭亏；扣非净利2，166~3，166万元，较24年大幅改善。 公司业绩反转主要系：1）半导体量测业绩兑现：膜厚、OCD等核心产品国内领先，主力产品已完成7nm先进制程 交付验收，先进制程订单成为核心驱动力。 2）显示业务稳步复苏：受益于G8.6代线及OLED投入增加，订单快速增长，新型显示业务毛利率提升明显。 3）结构优化与提效：前期研发投入转化规模效应，同时新能源业务持续减亏，经营质量发生质变。 公司作为前道量测领军，已步入盈利上升通道。 奥比中光：扭亏为盈，3D视觉迎来爆发拐点。 2025年预计实现营收9.40亿元（+ ...

Summary of Earnings Call Notes Industry Overview - The notes primarily focus on the mechanical industry and several companies within it, including 中科飞测 (Zhongke Feice), 科瑞技术 (Kerry Technology), 博杰股份 (Bojie Co.), 华兴源创 (Huaxing Yuanchuang), 正帆科技 (Zhengfan Technology), 曼恩斯特 (Mannste), and 信宇人 (Xinyuren) [1][2][5][7][10][12][13][14]. Key Points and Arguments 中科飞测 (Zhongke Feice) - **Performance Recovery**: Expected revenue for 2025 is projected to be between 1.95 billion to 2.15 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 41.3% to 55.8%. Net profit is expected to be between 48 million to 72 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [2][4]. - **Core Technology Breakthrough**: The company has achieved breakthroughs in core technologies, leading to rapid iterations of product lines and significant revenue contributions from new and upgraded products [4]. - **Scale Effect**: As revenue grows, the proportion of R&D investment has decreased year-on-year, enhancing overall profitability [4]. - **Strong Domestic Demand**: The acceleration of domestic substitution in semiconductor equipment has allowed core products to enter major clients' production lines, resulting in bulk shipments [4]. 科瑞技术 (Kerry Technology) - **Significant Growth**: Expected net profit for 2025 is projected to be between 235 million to 300 million yuan, a substantial increase of 68.61% to 115.25% year-on-year. Non-recurring net profit is expected to be between 130 million to 190 million yuan, with a growth of 4.69% to 53.01% [5]. - **Client Expansion**: The company has aggressively expanded its client base in the semiconductor and optical module sectors, leading to increased revenue [5]. - **Operational Efficiency**: Improved management practices have reduced credit and asset impairment losses, thereby safeguarding profit margins [5]. - **Non-recurring Gains**: The sale of a subsidiary contributed approximately 82 million yuan to net profit [5]. 博杰股份 (Bojie Co.) - **Explosive Growth**: Expected revenue for 2025 is projected to be between 1.7 billion to 1.95 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 38% to 58%. Net profit is expected to be between 130 million to 160 million yuan, reflecting a staggering increase of 484% to 619% [7]. - **AI Server Business Surge**: The expansion of computing infrastructure has led to significant deliveries of AI servers and related testing equipment [7]. - **New Energy Vehicle Growth**: The acquisition of Guanghao Jie has enhanced the scale of automotive electronics business [7]. - **MLCC Equipment Demand Recovery**: Strong downstream demand has led to a continuous increase in orders for related equipment [7]. 华兴源创 (Huaxing Yuanchuang) - **Turnaround**: Expected net profit for 2025 is approximately 85 million yuan, a recovery from a loss of 497 million yuan in the previous year [10]. - **Industry Recovery**: The company benefits from the recovery in consumer electronics and AI technology advancements, alongside government subsidy policies [10]. - **Asset Quality Improvement**: The reduction in goodwill impairment losses is expected to significantly improve asset quality [10]. - **Efficiency Enhancements**: Optimizing product structure and cost reduction measures have led to overall operational improvements [10]. 正帆科技 (Zhengfan Technology) - **Performance Pressure**: Expected revenue for 2025 is projected to be between 4.8 billion to 5.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 7% to 12%. Net profit is expected to decline to between 11 million to 15 million yuan, a drop of 72% to 79% [12]. - **Revenue and Margin Decline**: The decline is attributed to reduced capital expenditures in downstream industries and increased market competition [12]. - **Increased Depreciation Costs**: New capacity investments have led to higher depreciation expenses [12]. - **Financial Costs Rise**: Increased interest expenses due to investments and loans have pressured profitability [12]. 曼恩斯特 (Mannste) - **Short-term Losses**: Expected net profit for 2025 is projected to be between -110 million to -90 million yuan, indicating a shift from profit to loss [13]. - **Order Challenges**: A decrease in new orders and increased competition have negatively impacted revenue [13]. - **Strategic Transition**: The company is undergoing a strategic transformation, increasing R&D investments and market presence, which has raised operational costs [13]. - **Future Outlook**: Anticipated recovery in the lithium battery sector may improve order volumes in the future [13]. 信宇人 (Xinyuren) - **Increased Losses**: Expected net profit for 2025 is projected to be between -480 million to -400 million yuan, indicating a worsening loss situation [14]. - **Price Pressure**: Low demand and intense competition have led to declining product prices and gross margins [14]. - **Asset Impairment**: Increased inventory write-downs and longer accounts receivable aging have contributed to higher impairment losses [14]. - **Future Strategies**: The company plans to optimize client structure and enhance operational efficiency to gradually improve gross margins [15].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing high volatility at elevated levels, with external and internal factors limiting risk appetite ahead of the holiday season. The core drivers of the current spring market rally remain unchanged, suggesting potential opportunities for investment after adjustments [1][17]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The A-share market has shown a preference for value stocks, with a notable shift towards lower valuation sectors such as liquor and consumer goods, increasing the difficulty of capturing excess returns [1][17]. - Historical spring market adjustments are often driven by profit-taking pressures, policy and fundamental validations, and external environmental shocks. If adjustments are primarily due to fund behavior, they may provide space for subsequent increases [2][18][20]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - As of now, over 50% of annual performance forecasts have been disclosed across all A-shares, with a higher than average positive forecast rate in sectors such as non-bank financials, materials, and consumer goods. The sectors with the highest projected net profit growth include military, machinery, and consumer products [3][21]. - The overall industry prosperity index has risen for two consecutive months, indicating improvements in various sectors, including power equipment, semiconductors, and consumer goods [3][21]. Group 3: Valuation Observations - Current valuation and trading conditions indicate that sectors like computing power and materials are experiencing high levels of crowding, while consumer and export chains, as well as AI applications, are less crowded, presenting potential investment opportunities [4][22]. - The trading crowding in sectors such as semiconductors and aerospace equipment shows signs of decline, while consumer goods and financial sectors are beginning to recover from low trading crowding [4][22]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The market is expected to maintain volatility in the short term, with a potential continuation of the spring rally post-holiday. It is recommended to focus on high-quality, low-valuation sectors such as power equipment, semiconductors, and consumer goods [5][23]. - The investment strategy should include a shift towards sectors with high growth potential and favorable valuations, while also considering thematic investments in AI applications and consumer travel chains benefiting from the holiday season [5][23].

2026 年 02 月 01 日 2026 新旧共舞：一定要注意"再均衡" 基于 2025 年 Q4 机构持仓观察与季报观点，AI 科技+出海设备+全球定价 资源品是机构投资者最明确的共识。事实上，在春节前 A 股行情中也可以 看到这三个方向大幅领涨。在这个过程中，要深刻意识到： 1、对于科技+出海：随着 A 股科技+出海占 A 股盈利（剔除金融）占比在 2025 年接近 40%，根据此前我们的报告，基本面盈利占比"30%-60%"这一 趋势一般持续 6-8 年，我们认为科技+出海不仅是未来 3-5 年最重要的产 业基本面双主线，同时，越来越多行业营收和盈利结构在过去几年向高端 科技/制造或者出口出海积极靠拢，原地产链为代表传统行业已实现利润 增速由负转正，科技+出海两股强势力量正在深刻重塑 A 股盈利格局，并 有望推动 A 股盈利在 2026-2027 年进入新一轮向上周期。 2、"旧"的本质是"出口出海向中上游走"，传统行业摆脱旧模式拖累由海 外业务带来的利润企稳和增长愈发显著，从下游制造业向中上游制造业延 伸（工程机械、风电及电力设备、化工、建材、工业金属）；本质上相较于 下游出海出口经历一轮明显估值提 ...