证券研究报告 商贸零售 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 08 月 24 日 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——新消费行业周报（2025.8.18-2025.8.22） 证券分析师 投资要点： 丁一 SAC：S1350524040003 dingyi@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 板块表现： 联系人 新疆首家"胖东来"指导调改门店正式营业。汇嘉时代超市北京路店为胖东来在新 疆首家指导调改门店，调改从商品结构的优化、动线布局的合理性、便民服务设施 的增设、整体服务能力的提升以及员工福利的改善等多个维度上，实现了全新的成 长与蜕变。1）商品结构调整：超 3000 平方米的经营空间内，汇聚了一线、二线品 牌及本地地标性商品，全力满足民生需求，为消费者提供安全、实用、实在、时尚 的商品选择。2）动线布局调整：调改之后的卖场，取消了强制动线，拓宽卖场内通 道，使得购物动线更加流畅，为顾客提供更方便宽阔的购物空间。3）便民设施升级： 新增顾客休息区，设置多项便民服务设施，寄存柜、洗手台、纸巾、直饮水、微波 炉、充电宝等一应俱全，针对特殊需求顾客，推出宠物寄存 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4][31] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the strong response to the opening of the Wushang WS Jiangtun membership store and the price increase announcement from Laopu Gold, indicating a potential surge in consumer interest [5][4] - The growth of emerging consumer goods reflects new consumption concepts among the younger generation, emphasizing the importance of understanding these narratives for capturing growth opportunities in new consumer companies [20] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Performance - The new consumption sector showed varied performance from August 11 to August 15, with the retail index rising by 0.98% [8] Key Industry Data - In July, retail sales for gold and silver jewelry increased by 8.2% year-on-year, while cosmetics saw a 4.5% increase, indicating a positive trend in consumer spending [15][12] Investment Analysis Opinions - Recommendations include focusing on high-quality domestic brands in beauty care, such as Maogeping and Shumei, and leading brands in the gold jewelry sector like Laopu Gold and Chaohongji, which are favored by younger consumers [20]

以下文章来源于信风TradeWind ，作者刘艺晨 郑敏芳 作者 刘艺晨 郑敏芳 编辑松壑 2025年入夏，福州的一名初中生小陈被激战正酣的奶茶"0元购"补贴所吸引，每日的奶茶点单量达到了3-4杯。 "好喝的奶茶太多，不喝感觉浪费。"小陈对此感慨。 6月中旬，原本体型偏胖的小陈开始出现口干、多饮等症状，空腹血糖达到了12.3mmol/L，达到正常值上限的2倍还多，最终被确诊为糖尿病。 在三家头部外卖平台砸下亿级补贴发起免费奶茶大战，更多消费者沉浸在这场低成本、甚至零成本的快乐水狂欢中。 一切过度甜蜜背后，总有隐形成本的代偿。 虽然奶茶"0元购"已在外卖大战的调停下熄火。 但不可忽视的是，数以万计的连锁茶饮、零食门店正在通过供应链集约化、点位争夺、下沉扩张的规模经济打法，将更多含糖的食饮以更廉价、流行且易 得的方式渗透进入普通消费者的日常生活。 可是超量含糖食饮摄入对于居民健康的威胁，早已成为世界卫生系统的共识—— 过量糖分会刺激血糖波动，容易诱发胰岛素抵抗，随之而来的肥胖、代谢综合征与内脏脂肪的堆积，正是人类许多慢性病的开端； 一旦出现群体性的血糖失控，不仅会给社会健康带来隐患，还会让原本并不宽裕的医保系统徒 ...

本文源自：智通财经网 奈雪的茶(02150)涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.05%，报1.54港元，成交额800.8万港元。 消息面上，据报道，奈雪的茶于8月7日立秋当天，推出"好运紫"。奈雪的茶相关负责人透露，"好运 紫"套餐上线后，火速登顶外卖平台榜单TOP1。立秋当日，奈雪外卖销量增幅达500%。光大证券此前 指出，2025年，奈雪的茶积极布局发展。产品上，顺应健康化趋势，继奈雪小绿瓶后，持续推出如不加 糖抹茶香水柠檬等果蔬饮品。门店方面，大力拓展"green"店型，深圳试点改造效果好，业绩增长且复 购率高；2025年公司计划在一线和新一线城市的写字楼商圈改造约200-300家店，满足消费者多时段用 餐需求，并提升门店盈利水平。该行认为，现制茶饮需求仍较为旺盛，奈雪作为行业头部品牌，仍有较 大发展空间。 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market has shown strong upward momentum, with the index successfully surpassing the 3600-point mark, and the margin financing balance returning to the 2 trillion yuan level for the first time since May 2015[3] - The current tea beverage industry is experiencing intensified competition, with a significant shift towards overseas markets, particularly the United States, indicating substantial growth potential[3] Industry Trends - In the energy and technology integration sector, AI data centers are paving new paths for centralized photovoltaic consumption, supported by continuous policy efforts to promote the synergy between computing power and electricity[3] - The semiconductor industry is entering a new cycle driven by strong AI demand, with high-end segments like silicon wafers and MLCCs seeing notable demand differentiation[3] Structural Changes - The analysis of the Fortune China 500 list from 2015 to 2025 reveals a shift in China's industrial structure, with high-tech industries like electronics and modern services like finance becoming new growth drivers, while traditional sectors like real estate face deep adjustments[6] - The number of companies in the real estate sector has decreased from 45 to 29 over the past decade, reflecting significant industry contraction due to regulatory changes and market dynamics[7] Consumer Insights - The domestic tea beverage market has seen a slowdown in expansion, with the total number of stores increasing by only 0.74% in the first half of 2025, indicating a shift towards quality competition[23] - Major tea brands are increasingly looking to expand internationally, particularly in the U.S. market, which is projected to grow at a CAGR of 9.1% from 2019 to 2024, with significant potential for new store openings[26] High-End Manufacturing - The "East Data West Calculation" project is expected to enhance the coupling effect between photovoltaic power consumption and computing power industry development, with an estimated average annual energy consumption increase of approximately 9.8 GW for data centers over the next three years[34] - Global semiconductor sales reached $59.9 billion in June 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 19.6%, driven primarily by business-to-business AI demand rather than consumer electronics[3]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it suggests a positive outlook for sectors such as education, dairy products, and maternal and infant products due to recent policy changes [4]. Core Insights - The consumer sector showed mixed performance in the week of August 4-8, with textile and apparel, home appliances, and beauty care sectors experiencing gains, while social services and retail sectors faced declines [4]. - Recent government policies aimed at promoting free preschool education and subsidies for childcare are expected to positively impact consumer spending and help mitigate the declining population trend [4]. - DJI's entry into the cleaning appliance market with its ROMO series is expected to intensify competition, although traditional players maintain advantages in technology, cost control, and distribution channels [4]. - The "first cup of milk tea in autumn" campaign has sparked significant consumer demand, with major tea brands reporting substantial sales increases during this promotional period [4]. Summary by Sections Market Weekly Review - The consumer sector's performance varied, with notable gains in textile and apparel (+4.23%), home appliances (+2.37%), and beauty care (+1.70%), while social services (-0.11%) and retail (-0.38%) saw declines [4][5]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - The State Council issued a policy to gradually implement free preschool education starting in the fall of 2025, which is expected to boost consumer spending in related sectors [4][15]. - Hema plans to open nearly 100 new stores within the fiscal year, expanding its reach in the Chinese consumer market [4][15]. - The launch of DJI's ROMO series cleaning robots is anticipated to enhance market competition, although established players retain their market positions due to their technological and operational advantages [4][16]. - The tea beverage market has seen a surge in demand, with brands reporting significant sales growth during promotional events [4][16].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the new consumption industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4][30] Core Viewpoints - The beauty industry saw a GMV growth of 31.7% year-on-year in July on Douyin, with the total GMV for beauty products ranging from 150 billion to 200 billion yuan [4] - The trend in the beauty market reflects a dual pattern of price segment downtrend and high-end consumption coexistence, with 68.1% of GMV coming from products priced below 200 yuan [4] - The潮玩 (trendy toy) industry is experiencing growth driven by successful events like the PTS Beijing International Trendy Toy Exhibition, highlighting the importance of IP operation for long-term growth [4] - International outdoor sports brands are increasingly entering the Chinese market, indicating a rising demand from Chinese consumers [4] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The new consumption industry tracked from August 4 to August 8 shows a weekly increase of 4.23% in the textile and apparel index and 1.70% in the beauty care index, while the retail index decreased by 0.38% [7] Key Industry Data - In June, retail sales for textile and apparel increased by 1.9% year-on-year, while cosmetics saw a decline of 2.3% [12] - Gold and silver jewelry retail sales increased by 6.1% year-on-year in June [13] Investment Analysis Opinions - The growth of emerging consumer goods reflects new consumption concepts among the younger generation, emphasizing the importance of understanding these narratives for investment opportunities [19] - Recommendations include focusing on high-quality domestic brands in beauty, such as 毛戈平, 巨子生物, and 上美股份; in gold jewelry, brands like 老铺黄金 and 潮宏基; in trendy toys, companies like 泡泡玛特; and in ready-to-drink tea, brands like 蜜雪集团 and 古茗 [19]

Group 1 - Luckin Coffee achieved a record sales volume of over 20 million cups on August 7, making it the top-performing brand in the ready-to-drink tea market [2] - The highest-selling store on that day was located in Shanghai, with a single-day sales volume of 2,691 cups [2] - Major cities contributing to the sales included Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Hangzhou [2] Group 2 - The surge in orders during promotional events puts significant pressure on the supply chain, with some brands unable to fulfill orders promptly [3] - Luckin Coffee's supply chain and digital management systems are designed for rapid scalability, allowing it to handle the increased demand effectively [3] - The company's dynamic collaborative system covers the entire process from demand forecasting to user service, converting order pressure into manageable operational efficiency [3] Group 3 - Luckin Coffee has established a jasmine flower base in Guangxi for high-quality jasmine tea used in its products, enhancing its product quality [4] - The company plans to procure approximately 1 million tons of coconut raw materials over the next five years from Indonesia to ensure supply for its popular products [4] - The newly built Xiamen super factory will have an annual roasting capacity of 55,000 tons, contributing to a total capacity of 155,000 tons across its facilities, strengthening its supply chain control [4] Group 4 - In Q2 2025, Luckin Coffee reported total net revenue of 12.359 billion yuan (1.723 billion USD), a year-on-year increase of 47.1% [4] - Operating profit surged by 61.8% to 1.7 billion yuan, with an operating profit margin of 13.8% [4] - The number of new transaction customers exceeded 28.7 million in Q2, with a monthly average customer count growing by 32% to nearly 91.7 million, setting a new historical high [4]

Core Viewpoint - Naixue's tea is facing significant challenges in achieving stable profitability, with a decline in revenue and increasing competition in the beverage market [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - Naixue's revenue from 2021 to 2024 was 42.97 billion, 42.92 billion, 51.64 billion, and 49.21 billion respectively, with net profits of -4.526 billion, -476 million, 11.166 million, and -926 million [2]. - The adjusted net profits for the same years were -145 million, -461 million, 20.912 million, and -919 million [2]. Business Model and Expansion - Naixue has a low proportion of franchise stores, with 90.8% of revenue coming from direct stores, which saw a decline in income [3][4]. - In 2023, Naixue launched a "partner plan" to open franchise stores, requiring an investment of approximately 1 million and management experience [3]. - By the end of 2024, the number of franchise stores increased to 345, while direct store revenue decreased by 6.3% [4]. Market Strategy and Product Development - Naixue is exploring new store formats to adapt to different consumer scenarios, including the introduction of "Naixue green stores" focusing on healthy food options [6][7]. - The company has simplified its brand name and launched a "no sugar natural nutrition+" initiative to promote healthier products [8]. Investor Sentiment and Market Position - Naixue's market capitalization has significantly decreased from approximately 290 billion HKD at its IPO to about 24.93 billion HKD [8][9]. - Major investors have been reducing their stakes, indicating a loss of confidence in the company's future prospects [9][10].

Group 1: Market Trends - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue its bull run in the second half of 2025, outperforming the A-share market, driven by sectors like innovative drugs, new consumption, and AI applications[4] - The overall increase in the Hong Kong stock market is attributed to the scarcity of certain assets, aligning with current industry development trends and better fundamentals, which may attract continued capital inflow from mainland investors[5] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The AI sector is leading the technological cycle upward, with significant growth potential for Hong Kong's tech assets, particularly in the AI industry chain, which includes model development and commercial applications[5] - The film industry has shown significant improvement, with a 49% increase in box office revenue week-on-week, and a year-on-year growth of 64.8% due to new releases during the summer season[11] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Real estate sales in 30 major cities have decreased by 20.8% year-on-year, with first-tier cities seeing a decline of 17.8%[10] - The average daily retail sales of passenger cars increased by 5.0% year-on-year, indicating a slight recovery in consumer demand despite rising inventory pressures among dealers[10] Group 4: Policy and Regulatory Environment - The U.S. and China have agreed to extend the tariff exemption period by 90 days, stabilizing trade relations temporarily[14] - Recent meetings have emphasized the need for macroeconomic policies to support economic recovery and stabilize the capital market, with a focus on promoting consumption and managing risks[16]