Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The passing of the "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill in the US marks a shift from the "tight fiscal expectation + neutral monetary" phase in the first half of the year to a policy phase of "easy to loosen, hard to tighten." In China, the Central Financial and Economic Commission's meeting has reignited market inflation trading [3]. - The inflation trading this round is not smooth. Overseas, the core is the inflation expectation dominated by currency, while in China, it is the supply - side. Further details of production reduction policies are needed to determine the main line of inflation trading [3]. - Attention should be paid to corresponding commodity sectors. Domestically, the black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the supply - side. Overseas, the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from inflation expectations [4]. - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products on dips [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In July, a Politburo meeting in China is awaited. In May, domestic investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the entire real - estate chain. Exports were also under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. China's June manufacturing PMI rebounded, and the CPI turned positive year - on - year, with the core CPI rising 0.7% year - on - year, driven by industrial consumer goods. The PPI decreased 3.6% year - on - year in June, with the decline widening by 0.3 percentage points [2]. - Since July, policies to address low - price and disorderly competition in industries such as photovoltaics, lithium batteries, automobiles, and steel are expected to heat up, and some commodity prices have recovered. The low base of PPI in the second half of 2024 may boost the year - on - year PPI reading in the second half of this year [2]. - The US will impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports from 14 countries including Japan and South Korea starting from August 1. The US and Japan will continue tariff negotiations, and the EU aims to reach a trade agreement with the US by August 1. The US Commerce Secretary plans to talk with China in early August [2]. Macro - inflation Trading - The "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill in the US may increase the US government's debt by $3.4 trillion in the next decade, leading to a shift in US policies. In China, the Central Financial and Economic Commission's meeting has re - heated market inflation trading [3]. - Overseas, the US one - year inflation expectation in June dropped from 3.2% to 3.0%, a five - month low. However, the Fed's path to restarting easing is not smooth, and although the "Big Beautiful" bill has passed, Treasury bond issuance will still absorb market liquidity [3]. - In China, the core of inflation trading is on the supply - side. The 2025 Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting is different from the 2015 one, and more details of production reduction policies are needed to determine the main line of inflation trading [3]. Commodity Sectors - Domestically, the black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the supply - side. Overseas, the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from inflation expectations [4]. - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations. The supply shortage in the non - ferrous sector remains unresolved. In the energy sector, the short - term geopolitical premium has ended, and the medium - term supply is expected to be relatively loose. OPEC+ will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, higher than expected [4]. - The EIA expects the Brent crude oil price to be $69 per barrel in 2025 (previously $66). The price of agricultural products has limited fluctuation in the short term due to the absence of weather disturbances [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products on dips [5]. Important News - The Chinese government supports enterprises in stabilizing employment positions, including expanding the scope of special loans for stabilizing and expanding employment, increasing the proportion of unemployment insurance refunds for enterprises, and allowing enterprises in difficulty to apply for deferred payment of social insurance premiums [7]. - In June, China's CPI turned positive year - on - year after four consecutive months of decline, mainly due to the recovery of industrial consumer goods prices. The year - on - year decline of PPI widened in June, but prices in some industries are showing signs of stabilization and recovery [7]. - Trump has determined that tariffs will be implemented on August 1, 2025. The US and Japan will continue tariff negotiations, and the EU aims to reach a trade agreement with the US by August 1. The US plans to talk with China in early August [2][7]. - COMEX copper futures maintained a 9.6% increase, and Trump intends to impose a 50% tariff on copper. The investigation of the pharmaceutical and semiconductor sectors will be completed by the end of the month [7]. - The US one - year inflation expectation in June dropped from 3.2% to 3.0%, a five - month low, and the three - year inflation expectation remained stable at 3% [7]. - US API crude oil inventories increased by more than 700,000 barrels last week. The EIA expects the Brent crude oil price to be $69 per barrel in 2025 and $58 per barrel in 2026 [7]. - Trump has approved the shipment of more defensive weapons to Ukraine and is considering further sanctions against Russia. He is also considering supporting a new bill for severe sanctions against Russia [7][8].

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a bullish trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the 3500-point mark, supported by strong trading volume and financial sector performance [1] - Analysts suggest that investors should consider taking profits on overvalued stocks in sectors like new consumption and banking, while rotating into other sectors, particularly focusing on true industry leaders in artificial intelligence [1][2] - The current market is in the July earnings report period, and while new consumption and AI sectors have seen significant gains, many second and third-tier stocks are merely undergoing valuation corrections, which may lead to temporary pullbacks [1] Group 2 - The banking sector is attracting capital due to its low valuation and high dividend characteristics, but there are concerns about performance divergence among large and small banks, as well as the risk of overvaluation in certain stocks [2] - The recent announcement of tariffs by the U.S. on imports from 14 countries may boost A-share market sentiment in the short term, as it could support domestic manufacturing investment and export growth [2] - There is an expectation of a sustained bull market in technology stocks for over three years, with a focus on investments in AI infrastructure, humanoid robots, AI applications, solid-state batteries, and smart driving [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industries [5] Core Viewpoints - The focus is on investment opportunities in the stable and high-dividend electro-aluminum sector [2][9] - Short-term demand concerns are alleviated, with a greater emphasis on supply-side logic for mid-term investments [8][13] - Long-term stable and low-cost electricity supply is a critical constraint for the electro-aluminum industry [14] - The supply-demand balance is expected to ensure stable profitability and dividends, making the electro-aluminum sector a true dividend asset [14] Summary by Sections Electro-Aluminum Sector - Concerns about downstream demand affecting short-term profitability are noted, but the report argues that short-term demand is not a worry [8][13] - Inventory levels in the electro-aluminum sector are decreasing, indicating a healthy supply-demand balance [8][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of stable, low-cost electricity supply as a hard constraint for the electro-aluminum industry [14] - Future profitability is expected to be stable, with major companies potentially achieving a dividend yield close to 6% [14] Steel Sector - The steel industry is entering a demand lull, with a focus on monitoring production reduction policies [15] - Rebar production has increased significantly, with a slight rise in consumption [15][16] - Total steel inventory has seen a slight increase week-on-week but a significant decrease year-on-year [22] - Steel prices have shown a slight decline, with the overall price index down by 0.49% [35][36] New Energy Metals - Lithium production in May 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 31.37% [39] - The production of new energy vehicles in China has also risen sharply, with a 33.02% increase in production [43] - Prices for lithium and nickel have shown an upward trend, indicating a robust market [48][49]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual products, the outlook for industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate is "oscillating" [5][8][9] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Central Financial Conference re - emphasized the orderly elimination of backward production capacity, strengthening the expectation of supply contraction of silicon, leading to a significant rise in new energy metal prices. In the short - to - medium term, the price increase of industrial silicon and polysilicon has a positive impact on lithium carbonate. In the long term, low prices may accelerate the capacity clearance of domestic self - priced products, but the long - term over - supply problem of lithium carbonate may limit the price increase [2] Group 3: Summary by Product Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: Supply - side policy expectations are positive, and silicon prices are oscillating upwards [5] - **Information Analysis**: As of July 2, the spot price of industrial silicon has slightly rebounded. Domestic inventory decreased by 0.2% month - on - month. In May, the domestic monthly output was 308,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.6%. Exports in May were 55,652 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.5%. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in May was 92.9GW, a year - on - year increase of 388.0% [5] - **Main Logic**: Sudden production cuts by large northwest factories support prices. If the production cut scope expands, the supply - demand situation in July may improve. The southwest is in the wet season, and the resumption of production is slower than usual. The demand side is weak, and the inventory has slightly decreased this week. As the silicon price rebounds, supply may recover, and inventory may accumulate again [5] - **Outlook**: The fundamental over - supply situation of industrial silicon remains unchanged. The current price increase is driven by policy expectations, and the price is expected to oscillate [5][6] Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: The anti - involution policy has taken effect, and the polysilicon price has rebounded significantly [6] - **Information Analysis**: The average transaction price of N - type re - feedstock is 34,700 yuan/ton, a slight increase. In May, the export volume increased by 66.2% month - on - month, and the import volume decreased by 16.9% month - on - month. The cumulative new photovoltaic installed capacity from January to May increased by 150% year - on - year [6] - **Main Logic**: The polysilicon futures price hit the daily limit. Short - term production is low, and it is expected to rise to over 100,000 tons in June - July. The demand may weaken in the second half of the year after the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation [8] - **Outlook**: The demand for polysilicon may weaken in the second half of the year, but the anti - involution policy may cause large fluctuations in supply. The price is expected to have a wide - range oscillation [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: Driven by demand expectations and sentiment, the lithium price remains oscillating [9] - **Information Analysis**: On July 2, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 1.88%. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price increased by 350 yuan/ton. Zhongkuang Resources plans to upgrade its 25,000 - ton lithium salt production line [9] - **Main Logic**: Market sentiment is good, and demand production scheduling expectations are positive. Supply is increasing, and demand is expected to be good in July. Social inventory is accumulating, and warehouse receipt inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to wait and see or short at high prices after a rebound [9] - **Outlook**: Supply and demand remain in surplus, but the short - term reduction of warehouse receipts supports the price. The price is expected to oscillate [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - The supply side of new energy metals has seen rumors of disruptions, leading to a weak rebound in prices. In the short - to - medium term, the price trend is weak, but a weak rebound has occurred as prices fall to important cost areas. For long - term, low prices may accelerate the capacity clearance of domestically self - priced varieties. [1] Group 3: Summary by Variety Industrial Silicon - **Information Analysis**: As of June 26, the price decline of industrial silicon slowed. Domestic inventory increased by 1.7% month - on - month to 438,500 tons. May production was 308,000 tons, a 2.3% month - on - month increase but a 24.6% year - on - year decrease. May exports were 55,652 tons, an 8% month - on - month and 22.5% year - on - year decrease. May new photovoltaic installations were 92.9GW, a 105.5% month - on - month and 388% year - on - year increase. [4] - **Main Logic**: Supply - side news is disturbing, with northwest production rising and southwest entering the wet season. Demand from downstream industries is still weak, and social inventory continues to accumulate. However, the faster decline in futures prices has made the futures more cost - effective, leading to faster clearance of warehouse receipts, which supports the near - month contract. [4] - **Outlook**: Industrial silicon prices will rebound in the short term, but the overall surplus pattern remains unchanged. The subsequent price will show an oscillatory trend. [4] Polysilicon - **Information Analysis**: The N - type re - feedstock transaction price is between 32,000 - 35,000 yuan/ton, with an average of 34,400 yuan/ton. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 2,600 lots. May exports were 2,097.6 tons, a 66.2% month - on - month increase but a 30% year - on - year decrease. May imports were 793 tons, a 16.9% month - on - month decrease. 1 - 5 months of new photovoltaic installations were 197.85GW, a 150% year - on - year increase. [5] - **Main Logic**: Supply - side disturbances have boosted prices. Production is currently low, and there is a risk of weakening demand in the second half of the year due to the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation period. [6] - **Outlook**: Polysilicon prices will show wide - range oscillations. [7] Lithium Carbonate - **Information Analysis**: On June 26, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 1.02% to 61,500 yuan, and the total position decreased by 10,604 lots to 619,950 lots. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 400 yuan to 60,600 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade increased by 400 yuan to 59,000 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate was 620 US dollars/ton. On June 24, the first batch of lithium concentrate from the Ganfeng Goulamina project in Mali was shipped. [7] - **Main Logic**: The current market supply and demand lack drivers, and prices fluctuate with sentiment. Supply is increasing, and demand is relatively flat. Social inventory is accumulating, and warehouse receipt inventory clearance has slowed down. [8] - **Outlook**: Prices will oscillate in the short term. [8]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - All three key new energy metals (industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate) are rated as "oscillating" [4][5][7] 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply side of new energy metals has seen rumors of disruptions, leading to a weak rebound in prices. In the short - to - medium term, prices are trending weakly, but as they fall to important cost areas, a weak rebound occurs. For the long - term, low prices may accelerate the production capacity clearance of domestically self - priced varieties [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs I. Market Views - **Industrial Silicon** - **Current Situation**: As of June 24, the price decline of industrial silicon has slowed. The domestic inventory has increased, with production in May up 2.3% month - on - month but down 24.6% year - on - year. Exports in May decreased by 8.0% month - on - month and 22.5% year - on - year. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in May increased significantly [4] - **Logic**: On the supply side, northern large - scale plants are resuming production, and southwestern regions are entering the wet season with new capacity. On the demand side, downstream demand is still weak, especially from polysilicon enterprises [4] - **Outlook**: Supply continues to rise while demand remains weak, so the silicon price will be under pressure and show an oscillating trend [4] - **Polysilicon** - **Current Situation**: The average transaction price of N - type re - feedstock has decreased by 6.27% month - on - month. The number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. Exports in May increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, and imports decreased [4][5] - **Logic**: After the end of the photovoltaic installation rush, silicon wafer production scheduling has weakened in the short term, and the spot price has declined, causing the futures price to fall. Supply is currently at a low level, and demand may weaken in the future [5] - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand situation is improving, but there is a risk of weakening demand in the second half of the year, so the price will show a wide - range oscillation [5] - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Current Situation**: On June 24, the closing price of the main contract increased by 2.67%, and the total position decreased. The spot price and the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate decreased, and the warehouse receipts decreased [6] - **Logic**: The market supply - demand lacks a driving force. Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and social inventory is accumulating while warehouse receipts are decreasing. The ore price is testing the cost support [7] - **Outlook**: Demand is flat, supply is high but inventory is decreasing, so the price will oscillate in the short term [7] II. Market Monitoring - The report mentions market monitoring for industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate, but no specific content is provided [8][14][25]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report emphasizes the strategic and tactical value of investing in the rare earth sector, viewing it as a critical asset in the long-term geopolitical competition between China and the US [2][15]. - It argues that the current market fluctuations in the rare earth and magnetic materials sectors are largely driven by short-term speculative trading rather than long-term fundamentals [8][14]. - The report highlights the unique competitive advantages of China's rare earth refining and separation capabilities, which are difficult for foreign entities to replicate [15][16]. Group 2: Supply Side Analysis - The domestic supply of rare earths is expected to remain stable, with a concentration of production among two major rare earth groups, while illegal mining activities are being strictly controlled [16]. - China's ability to manage both domestic and international rare earth resources is strengthening, which may further enhance the strategic importance of these resources [16] . Group 3: Demand Side Analysis - The demand for high-performance rare earth permanent magnets is anticipated to grow significantly due to emerging industries such as humanoid robots and low-altitude economies [17]. - Recent approvals for export applications have alleviated previous concerns regarding demand for magnetic materials, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment [17]. Group 4: Steel Industry Insights - The steel industry is entering a seasonal downturn, with a notable increase in rebar production and a slight decrease in consumption [18][23]. - Total steel inventory has decreased significantly, both on a week-over-week and year-over-year basis, indicating a tightening supply [25]. - The profitability of long and short process rebar production is diverging, with long process margins showing slight improvement [29][34]. Group 5: New Energy Metals - Lithium production in China saw a substantial year-over-year increase, while hydroxide production experienced a decline [41]. - The production and sales of new energy vehicles in China have surged, reflecting strong demand in the market [45]. - Prices for lithium, nickel, and cobalt have generally declined, indicating a potential softening in the market [51]. Group 6: Industrial Metals - The report notes a continuous decline in electrolytic aluminum inventory, suggesting potential upward pressure on prices [62]. - Global refined copper production has increased, with slight improvements in smelting fees [62].

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "stronger than the market" rating [7] Core Views - Precious Metals: The repeated changes in US tariff policies do not alter the long-term allocation value of gold. Recent economic data from the US shows a weakening trend, increasing market concerns about the economic outlook. This weak economic data will provide a basis for the Federal Reserve's future interest rate cuts. According to a survey by the World Gold Council, 76% of 73 global central banks expect to continue increasing their gold holdings over the next five years to diversify away from dollar assets, highlighting the central banks' willingness to purchase gold amid geopolitical factors and declining dollar credit. In the short term, potential risks and uncertainties from "reciprocal tariffs" support market risk aversion, leading to a price increase for gold, which is expected to show an overall pattern of easy rise and difficult fall. In the medium to long term, the core of gold trading remains risk aversion and stagflation trading under the uncertainty of global tariff policies and geopolitical factors, maintaining its long-term allocation value [3][12][13] - Industrial Metals: The supply-demand tightness remains unchanged, making it generally easy to rise and difficult to fall. For copper, the short-term expectation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts continues, and the tight supply-demand pattern supports copper prices. In the medium to long term, as the Federal Reserve deepens interest rate cuts, it will boost investment and consumption, while opening up domestic monetary policy space. Additionally, the potential inflation rebound from the subsequent wide fiscal policies of the Trump administration will support the upward movement of copper price levels. Strong demand from the new energy sector will further widen the supply-demand gap, continuing to favor copper prices [4][14][15] - New Energy Metals: The extension of the cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo may boost cobalt prices. The lithium market faces a dual weakness in supply and demand, with limited support from lithium salt plant repairs and production cuts. In the medium to long term, lithium mines are considered the most quality and elastic targets in the electric vehicle supply chain, suggesting strategic stock layout opportunities. Recommended stocks include Salt Lake Co., Cangge Mining, Yongxing Materials, and Zhongkuang Resources, with elastic attention to Jiangte Electric, Tianqi Lithium, and Ganfeng Lithium [4][19] - Other Minor Metals: The prices of rare earths remain stable. The tightening of spot supply and the slight reduction in the operating rate of separation plants due to cost and raw material supply issues have led to a relatively firm pricing environment. Demand is steadily increasing, with major magnetic material manufacturers continuing to procure, indicating that the demand remains, although the cautious purchasing attitude affects the overall order stability [5][20][23] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The long-term allocation value of gold remains unchanged despite US tariff policy fluctuations [3][12][13] - Recommended stocks include Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Gold, with attention to Hunan Gold and Zhaojin Mining [3][12][13] Industrial Metals - The supply-demand tightness continues, supporting copper prices in the short term and medium to long term [4][14][15] - Recommended stocks include Luoyang Molybdenum, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, and West Mining [4][14][15] New Energy Metals - The cobalt export ban extension may lead to price increases [4][19] - Recommended stocks include Salt Lake Co., Cangge Mining, and Yongxing Materials [4][19] Other Minor Metals - Rare earth prices are stable, with demand increasing [5][20][23] - Recommended stocks include Hunan Gold, Huaxi Youshi, and Zhongjin Gold [5][20][23]

证券研究报告：有色金属|行业周报 发布时间：2025-06-09 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 4842.88 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 5020.22 | | 52 | 周最低 | 3700.9 | 行业相对指数表现 2024-06 2024-08 2024-10 2025-01 2025-03 2025-06 -18% -14% -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:李帅华 SAC 登记编号:S1340522060001 Email:lishuaihua@cnpsec.com 分析师:魏欣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070001 Email:weixin@cnpsec.com 研究助理:杨丰源 SAC 登记编号:S1340124050015 Email:yangfengyuan@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《关税预期扰动不改黄金上行趋势》 - 2025.06.03 有色金属行业报告 （2025.06.02-2022. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cost provides weak support, leading to a rebound in new energy metal prices. New energy metal prices have been falling, with a slight and temporary contraction in supply. The stabilization of domestic energy prices offers weak cost support, but the supply - demand situation has not significantly improved, and the oversupply pattern continues. To reverse the current decline, a significant contraction in supply is needed. In the short and medium term, the price trend of new energy metals is weak, and cautious participation is advisable. Long - term low prices may accelerate the elimination of production capacity of domestically self - priced varieties [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1.行情观点 Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: During the wet season, supply increases while demand is weak, causing silicon prices to fluctuate under pressure. As of June 4, the price of oxygen - passing 553 in East China was 8150 yuan/ton, and 421 was 8850 yuan/ton. Domestic inventory was 420,900 tons, a 0.4% month - on - month increase. In May 2025, domestic industrial silicon monthly output was 308,000 tons, a 2.3% month - on - month increase and a 24.6% year - on - year decrease. In April, industrial silicon exports were 60,509 tons, a 1.6% month - on - month increase and a 9.2% year - on - year decrease [5]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, large northern factories are gradually resuming production, and supply in the northwest is increasing. In June, the southwest enters the wet season, with the operating rate in Sichuan having already rebounded, and Yunnan's operating rate expected to follow. On the demand side, downstream demand remains weak. Polysilicon factories continue to cut production, and the demand for industrial silicon is still low. The organic silicon industry's operating rate has slightly recovered, and subsequent demand is expected to remain stable. Aluminum alloy has limited impact on industrial silicon demand. Inventory continues to accumulate, but futures prices have fallen rapidly, leading to a reduction in warehouse receipt inventory [5]. - **Outlook**: The current pace of silicon factory复产 in the northwest has slowed, but there is still potential for further复产. In June, production in Sichuan and Yunnan will increase. Under high supply pressure, inventory will continue to accumulate, and silicon prices will remain under pressure, but short - term small rebounds are possible. Silicon prices are expected to fluctuate [5]. Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: The number of warehouse receipt registrations has increased, causing polysilicon prices to fluctuate widely. The成交 price range of N - type re -投料 was 36,000 - 38,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 37,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. In April, China's polysilicon exports were about 1,262.3 tons, a 37% month - on - month decrease, and imports were about 954.3 tons, a 67.2% month - on - month decrease [5]. - **Main Logic**: Recently, the speed of polysilicon warehouse receipt registration has accelerated. There is significant uncertainty about polysilicon复产 during the wet season, and it is expected that large - scale factory production capacity will be replaced, greatly alleviating supply pressure. Most silicon material factories are still in a loss state, and polysilicon production is currently at a low level. After the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation period, downstream product prices such as components have begun to decline, and there is a risk of weakening demand in the second half of the year [5]. - **Outlook**: The short - term low production of polysilicon has improved the supply - demand situation, but there is a risk of weakening demand in the second half of the year. Polysilicon prices are expected to fluctuate widely [5]. Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment is strong, and lithium carbonate prices are rising following the trend. On June 4, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 1.9% to 61,080 yuan. The total position of lithium carbonate contracts decreased by 7,135 lots to 57,874 lots. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 50 yuan to 60,250 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade price decreased by 50 yuan to 58,650 yuan/ton [6]. - **Main Logic**: The current fundamentals are still loose, but inventory has marginally improved, and the price difference structure has strengthened. Weekly production increased by 487 tons to 16,600 tons. From January to May, domestic cathode materials maintained growth. In June, the off - season production schedule increased slightly more than expected. Social inventory has slightly decreased, and warehouse receipt inventory has also decreased recently. Ore prices are still falling, but have not reached the marginal cost of Australian mines, and no mine production cuts have been observed [7]. - **Outlook**: Demand is weak, and supply is high. Prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term [7].