1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [2]. - For methanol, the futures market is in a weak downward trend. High port inventories persistently suppress prices and the monthly structure. Supply remains high while demand shows little change. The market is trading on weak - reality logic, and prices may further decline [4]. - For urea, prices are oscillating at the bottom and showing relative resilience. With improved demand and cost support, the downside is limited, and it's expected to build a bottom through oscillation. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [7]. - For PVC, the supply - demand situation is poor with strong supply and weak demand in China. Although the valuation has dropped to a low level, it still can't support the current supply - demand imbalance. A strategy of short - selling on rallies is suggested in the medium term [12]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly, and with the seasonal peak in demand, styrene prices may stop falling temporarily [18]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The cost - driven downward trend has shifted to the issue of South Korean ethylene clearance [21]. - For polypropylene, in a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, there is no prominent short - term contradiction. The price may be supported when the supply - surplus situation in the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [23]. - For PX, it is expected to experience a slight inventory build - up in November. With a neutral valuation and weakening aromatics blending data, there is a risk of valuation correction [27]. - For PTA, the supply of unexpected outages is expected to decrease, and demand may remain high in the short term. However, PTA processing fees have limited upside, and there is a risk of PXN valuation correction [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand outlook is weak. Although the inventory build - up may slow down, a strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended in the medium term [32]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 7.60 yuan/barrel, a 1.67% decline, at 447.40 yuan/barrel. Singapore's ESG oil product weekly data showed gasoline and diesel inventories increasing, fuel oil inventory decreasing, and total refined oil inventory increasing [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, and wait and see for now [2]. 3.2 Methanol - **Market Information**: Taicang's price remained stable, Lunan's price decreased by 5, Inner Mongolia's price increased by 5, the 01 contract of the futures market decreased by 12 yuan to 2004 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 4. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 3 to - 134 [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures market is in a weak downward trend. High port inventories suppress prices, and there is a risk of further price decline [4]. 3.3 Urea - **Market Information**: Shandong's spot price increased by 10, Henan's increased by 20, Hubei's increased by 10. The 01 contract of the futures market decreased by 11 yuan to 1654 yuan, and the basis was - 24. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 4 to - 74 [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Prices are oscillating at the bottom and showing relative resilience. With improved demand and cost support, the downside is limited. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [7]. 3.4 PVC - **Market Information**: The 01 contract remained unchanged at 4456 yuan. Changzhou's SG - 5 spot price was 4420 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 36. The 1 - 5 spread was - 300. The cost side remained stable, and the overall开工 rate was 78.8%, with an increase of 0.3%. The demand - side downstream开工 rate was 49.2%, with a decrease of 0.3% [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand situation is poor with strong supply and weak demand in China. A strategy of short - selling on rallies is suggested in the medium term [12]. 3.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene's spot and futures prices remained unchanged, and the basis widened. Styrene's spot and futures prices increased, and the basis strengthened. The upstream开工 rate decreased by 0.30%, and the port inventory decreased by 2.65 million tons. The demand - side three - S weighted开工率 increased by 0.21% [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With the significant decrease in styrene's port inventory and the seasonal peak in demand, styrene prices may stop falling temporarily [18]. 3.6 Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price was 6781 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54 yuan/ton. The spot price remained unchanged at 6855 yuan/ton, and the basis strengthened by 54 yuan to 74. The upstream开工 rate increased by 0.89%. The production enterprise's inventory decreased by 2.59 million tons, and the trader's inventory increased by 0.05 million tons. The downstream average开工率 decreased by 0.29% [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The cost - driven downward trend has shifted to the issue of South Korean ethylene clearance [21]. 3.7 Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price was 6400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan/ton. The spot price decreased by 15 yuan to 6505 yuan/ton, and the basis strengthened by 19 yuan to 105. The upstream开工率 decreased by 0.68%. The production enterprise's, trader's, and port inventories all decreased. The downstream average开工率 increased by 0.14% [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, there is no prominent short - term contradiction. The price may be supported when the supply - surplus situation in the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [23]. 3.8 PX - **Market Information**: The 01 contract decreased by 80 yuan to 6750 yuan, and PX CFR decreased by 9 dollars to 824 dollars. The basis was - 19 yuan, and the 1 - 3 spread was - 14 yuan. China's PX负荷 was 89.5%, an increase of 2.7%, and Asia's was 79.7%, an increase of 1.2%. PTA's负荷 was 71%, a decrease of 4.7%. The inventory at the end of September was 402.6 million tons, an increase of 10.8 million tons compared to the previous month [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to experience a slight inventory build - up in November. With a neutral valuation and weakening aromatics blending data, there is a risk of valuation correction [27]. 3.9 PTA - **Market Information**: The 01 contract decreased by 30 yuan to 4666 yuan, and the East China spot price decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 4615 yuan. The basis was - 63 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 44 yuan. PTA's负荷 was 71%, a decrease of 4.7%. The downstream负荷 was 91.3%, an increase of 0.8%. The social inventory on November 7 was 222.7 million tons, an increase of 2 million tons compared to the previous period. The spot processing fee increased by 35 yuan to 199 yuan, and the futures processing fee increased by 22 yuan to 238 yuan [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of unexpected outages is expected to decrease, and demand may remain high in the short term. However, PTA processing fees have limited upside, and there is a risk of PXN valuation correction [29]. 3.10 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract decreased by 14 yuan to 3808 yuan, and the East China spot price decreased by 33 yuan to 3852 yuan. The basis was 32 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 93 yuan. The supply - side负荷 was 70.8%, a decrease of 0.7%. The downstream负荷 was 91.3%, an increase of 0.8%. The port inventory increased by 7.1 million tons to 73.2 million tons [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand outlook is weak. Although the inventory build - up may slow down, a strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended in the medium term [32].

Group 1: Lithium Carbonate Market - Lithium carbonate has hit a trading limit down, indicating a significant market correction driven by policy intervention and fundamental market dynamics [3][4]. - Regulatory measures by the Guangxi Futures Exchange aim to prevent excessive speculation that could harm the real economy, suggesting that the market is being cooled rather than ending [3][4]. - The volatility in the lithium carbonate market reflects a disconnect between bullish price expectations and current market realities, highlighting the speculative nature of recent trading [4][5]. Group 2: Methanol Market Outlook - The 05 contract for methanol is highlighted as a potential opportunity due to expected improvements in the fundamental market conditions [7]. - Key factors influencing the methanol market include potential gas supply restrictions from Iran, domestic supply reductions, and a possible demand recovery from MTO (Methanol-to-Olefin) operations [8][9][10]. - The market sentiment is expected to shift towards a de-stocking phase starting mid-December, which could positively impact prices [12][20]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Market - A recent conference involving major players in the organic silicon industry has led to a coordinated reduction in production, effective from December 1, which is expected to alleviate supply pressures on upstream industrial silicon [21][23]. - The price of DMC (Dimethylcyclosiloxane) has increased significantly, reflecting the industry's efforts to stabilize prices amid long-term losses and supply-demand imbalances [23]. - The market's quick response to the news indicates a strong sentiment towards self-regulation within the industry, which could bolster confidence moving forward [23]. Group 4: Nickel Market Dynamics - Nickel prices have been on a downward trend, breaking through key support levels, driven by persistent supply-demand imbalances and high inventory levels [29][30]. - The anticipated tightening of nickel supply has not materialized, leading to a bearish outlook as demand growth remains insufficient to absorb the excess supply [32][33]. - The market is expected to remain under pressure due to high inventories and a lack of significant demand recovery in the near term [33]. Group 5: Futures Market Overview - The futures market shows a clear divergence between bullish opportunities in certain commodities like iron ore and bearish trends in others like coal and agricultural products [46][49][55]. - The core logic driving these trends revolves around supply-demand dynamics, macroeconomic policies, and seasonal factors affecting various commodities [48][54][57]. - Investors are advised to adopt a diversified approach while closely monitoring market conditions and adjusting strategies accordingly [58].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - On Friday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, decreasing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly declining. The closing price slightly dropped by 0.59% to 15,240 yuan/ton. After the weakening of macro - driving factors, the domestic rubber market returned to a market dominated by supply - demand fundamentals [6]. - On Friday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of decreasing volume and positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The closing price slightly decreased by 0.35% to 2,004 yuan/ton. The current domestic methanol futures are dominated by weak supply - demand fundamentals [6]. - On Friday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume and positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The closing price slightly decreased by 1.67% to 447.4 yuan/barrel. The bearish atmosphere has intensified. With the game between supply surplus and seasonal demand recovery, and the interference of geopolitical factors, the oil price rebound is blocked and may fluctuate widely [6]. Summary of Each Section 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of November 16, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 452,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,100 tons or 0.70%. The bonded area inventory decreased by 1.76% to 66,600 tons, and the general trade inventory increased by 1.13% to 386,000 tons. The inbound and outbound rates of both bonded and general trade warehouses decreased [9]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.63 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.40 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.56 percentage points. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will recover next week, but the overall demand improvement is limited [9]. - In October 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.359 million and 3.322 million respectively, a month - on - month increase of 2.5% and 3%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.1% and 8.8%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative production and sales were 27.692 million and 27.687 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.2% and 12.4%. In October 2025, the heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 40% [10]. Methanol - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 83.77%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.17%, a month - on - month slight increase of 1.06%, and a year - on - year slight increase of 4.08%. The average weekly methanol output was 2.0142 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 38,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 70,700 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 134,000 tons [11]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 31.28%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.05%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 5.31%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.96%. The acetic acid operating rate was 66.53%, a week - on - week increase of 2.89%. The MTBE operating rate was 58.91%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.67%, a week - on - week increase of 0.85 percentage points [11]. - As of November 21, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures profit was 316 yuan/ton, a week - on - week slight increase of 7 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant rebound of 537 yuan/ton. As of the week of November 21, 2025, the methanol inventory in East and South China ports was 1.2439 million tons, and the inland methanol inventory was 358,700 tons [11][12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of November 14, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 417, a week - on - week increase of 3, and a year - on - year decrease of 61. The average daily crude oil production was 13.834 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 28,000 barrels/day and a year - on - year significant increase of 633,000 barrels/day [12]. - As of the week of November 14, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 424.2 million barrels, a week - on - week significant decrease of 3.426 million barrels and a year - on - year significant decrease of 6.137 million barrels. The Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 698,000 barrels week - on - week, and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 533,000 barrels week - on - week [13]. - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions of WTI crude oil was 102,958 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 4,249 contracts and a significant decrease of 19,105 contracts from the August average, a decrease of 15.65%. As of November 11, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds was 164,578 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 11,817 contracts and a significant increase of 45,167 contracts from the October average, an increase of 37.82% [13]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,850 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,240 yuan/ton | - 10 yuan/ton | - 390 yuan/ton | +10 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,017 yuan/ton | +12 yuan/ton | 2,004 yuan/ton | - 12 yuan/ton | +13 yuan/ton | +12 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 425.7 yuan/barrel | - 0.2 yuan/barrel | 447.4 yuan/barrel | - 8.1 yuan/barrel | - 21.7 yuan/barrel | +7.9 yuan/barrel | [14] 3. Related Charts - Rubber: Charts include rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, SHFE rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][17][23] - Methanol: Charts include methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][37] - Crude Oil: Charts include crude oil basis, SHFE crude oil futures inventory, U.S. commercial crude oil inventory, U.S. refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [41][43][45]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefins - PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand increase, with reduced maintenance leading to increased supply and slight inventory accumulation under new capacity pressure. PE shows increased supply and decreased demand, with abundant imported goods and weak demand except for agricultural film. The cost side has fluctuating crude oil and strong coal, and PDH profits continue to weaken [2]. Crude Oil - The US proposed a new plan to restart the Russia - Ukraine peace negotiation, causing geopolitical premiums to decline and oil prices to fall. OPEC+ is continuously increasing production, and US crude oil production is at a new high, resulting in a weak supply - demand pattern and significant pressure on oil prices. Short - term Brent crude is expected to find support at $60 per barrel [3]. Natural Rubber - Supply: Domestic production areas are entering the production - reducing and cutting - off season, and rainfall in overseas areas keeps raw material prices high. However, the arrival of overseas ships is increasing seasonally, and inventory accumulation suppresses spot prices. Demand: Overall demand is weak, and the market mainly focuses on digesting channel inventory. It is expected that the natural rubber market will enter a range - bound consolidation [5]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda Ash: The market is in an overall surplus situation. Supply is high, and downstream demand is mainly based on rigid needs. The supply - demand pattern is still bearish, and it is recommended to wait for rebounds to short [7]. - Glass: Recently, prices have been falling, and low prices have driven better sales. However, there are still production line restarts in the future, which will increase supply pressure. In the short term, there is some rigid demand support, but in the long term, demand will shrink, and prices will be under pressure [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand situation is under pressure. The main downstream, alumina, has reduced purchasing enthusiasm. Although there is some supply reduction in the East China region, the long - term supply - demand pressure remains large, and prices are expected to be weak [8]. - PVC: The spot market is in a weak and volatile state. Supply is still at a high level, and demand is in the off - season. The export situation is not optimistic, and the supply - demand surplus pattern continues, with prices expected to remain at the bottom [8]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Asian and domestic PX loads have decreased, but supply remains high. Demand is weak, and although there are some supporting factors, the rebound space is limited, and it is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term [9]. - PTA: After the maintenance of some devices, the basis has strengthened slightly. The supply - demand situation is expected to be relatively balanced in November and more relaxed from December to the first quarter. The rebound space is limited, and it is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term [9]. - Ethylene Glycol: Domestic supply remains high, and overseas shipments will be concentrated in November, leading to inventory accumulation and a weak basis. It is under pressure above, and corresponding option and spread strategies are recommended [9]. - Short - fiber: Supply remains high, and demand is seasonally weak. The absolute price drive is limited, and processing fees are expected to be compressed [9]. - Bottle - grade PET: Supply changes little, and demand support is insufficient. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the social inventory is likely to enter the seasonal accumulation period. The processing fee will follow the raw material cost [9]. Methanol - In the inland market, production will continue to increase, and marginal devices are in a loss state. In the port market, Iranian gas restrictions are postponed, and shipments are accelerating, resulting in high inventory and weak prices. The core contradiction is high port inventory, and the "weak reality" logic will continue [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure Benzene: Although there are maintenance expectations for some devices, imports are expected to be high, and overall supply may be relatively loose. Demand support is limited, and port inventory is accumulating. The supply pressure is large, and the short - term BZ2603 contract is recommended to be observed [13]. - Styrene: The supply - demand situation has improved, with export expectations and falling port inventory. However, profit recovery may lead to delayed maintenance and new device trials, and downstream EPS demand is expected to weaken, so the upside space is limited [13]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 have different price changes, and there are also changes in spreads such as L15, PP15, and LP01. Spot prices of PP and LLDPE in some regions have declined [2]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE and PP enterprise and social inventories have decreased to varying degrees. PE and PP device and downstream weighted开工率 also show different trends [2]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices have declined, and there are also changes in spreads such as Brent - WTI and SC - Brent. Product oil prices and spreads have also changed [3]. Natural Rubber - **Prices and Spreads**: Spot prices of various natural rubber products have changed, and there are also changes in monthly spreads such as 9 - 1, 1 - 5, and 5 - 9 [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Production in September in Thailand, Indonesia, India, and China has changed. Tire production, export, and import data in October have also changed, as well as开工率 data [5]. - **Inventory**: Bonded area inventory and factory - warehouse futures inventory have increased, while some出库 and入库 rates have changed [5]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash prices in different regions and futures prices have changed, and basis has also changed [7]. - **Supply**: Soda ash production rate and weekly output have decreased slightly, and glass melting volume has remained stable [7]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory - warehouse inventory and soda ash factory - warehouse inventory have increased, while soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory has decreased [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: PVC and caustic soda prices in different regions and futures prices have changed, and there are also changes in spreads [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: Chlor - alkali开工率 and industry profits have changed, and downstream开工率 of caustic soda and PVC has also changed. Inventory has decreased to some extent [8]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Prices of polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY have remained stable, and cash flows have changed [9]. - **PX - related**: PX prices and spreads have changed, and开工率 has decreased [9]. - **PTA - related**: PTA prices, basis, and processing fees have changed, and开工率 has decreased slightly [9]. - **MEG - related**: MEG prices, basis, and spreads have changed, and开工率 has changed slightly [9]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices have changed, and basis and regional spreads have also changed [10]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories have decreased [10]. - **开工率**: Upstream and downstream开工率 of methanol have changed [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Prices of pure benzene and related spreads have changed, and import profits have also changed [13]. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene prices, basis, and spreads have changed, and cash flows have also changed [13]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: Cash flows of pure benzene and styrene downstream products have changed [13]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Pure benzene and styrene port inventories have changed, and产业链开工率 has also changed [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support willingness when prices fall [2]. - For methanol, the futures market continues to decline weakly. High port inventory pressure persists, with limited destocking before the 01 contract. Supply remains high while demand shows little change. The market is trading on the weak - reality logic, and prices may further decline [3]. - For urea, prices are oscillating and rising from the bottom, showing relative resilience. Supply - side corporate profits are low, and production has slightly declined but is still high year - on - year. Demand has improved due to agricultural reserves and exports. With export policies and cost support, the downside is limited, and it's expected to oscillate and build a bottom, suggesting buying on dips [6][8]. - For rubber, the start - up load of tire enterprises has decreased, and semi - steel tire export orders have slowed. However, typhoons may increase supply, and the cancellation of warehouse receipts may benefit the January contract. Arbitrage strategies include going long on RU2601 and short on RU2609 or NR [10]. - For PVC, corporate profits are at a low level, supply is high with new installations coming online, and demand is weak both domestically and in exports. There is a risk of continuous inventory accumulation, and it's advisable to short on rallies in the medium term [12]. - For pure benzene and styrene, pure benzene prices are stable, while styrene prices are rising. Supply is under pressure, but the BZN spread has room to recover. Port inventory is decreasing, and prices may stop falling in the short term [15]. - For polyethylene, OPEC +'s plan to pause production growth may support oil prices. PE valuation has limited downside, but high warehouse receipts suppress the market. With inventory reduction and seasonal demand, prices may oscillate at a low level [18]. - For polypropylene, cost - side supply may increase, and supply pressure remains high. Although demand has rebounded seasonally, overall inventory pressure is high. Prices may be supported when the supply - surplus situation changes in Q1 next year [20]. - For PX, the load is high, but downstream PTA maintenance is frequent, leading to expected inventory accumulation in November. However, there is support from aromatics blending and long - term supply - demand structure, and there may be opportunities for valuation increase in the medium term [23]. - For PTA, supply - side maintenance has increased, but new installations will lead to inventory accumulation in November. Demand may remain high, but there is limited room for improvement. PTA processing fees are under pressure, but it may strengthen when PXN rises in the medium term [25]. - For ethylene glycol, domestic and overseas installations are operating at high loads, imports are increasing, and inventory is accumulating. Valuation is relatively low, and it's advisable to short on rallies [28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 7.70 yuan/barrel, a 1.66% decline, at 455.50 yuan/barrel. US EIA weekly data showed that commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.43 million barrels to 424.16 million barrels, a 0.80% decline; SPR increased by 0.53 million barrels to 410.93 million barrels, a 0.13% increase [6][7]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, but wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support willingness [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Taicang price increased by 3, Lunan by 5, and Inner Mongolia remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market increased by 3 yuan to 2016 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 16. The 1 - 5 spread was - 137 [2]. - **Strategy**: The market is trading on the weak - reality logic, and prices may further decline. Be vigilant about price drops [3]. Urea - **Market Information**: Shandong's spot price increased by 10, while Henan and Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market increased by 2 yuan to 1665 yuan, with a basis of - 45. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 2 to - 70 [5]. - **Strategy**: Prices are oscillating and rising from the bottom, with limited downside. It's expected to oscillate and build a bottom, suggesting buying on dips [6][8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: As of November 20, 2025, the start - up load of full - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 60.57%, down 4.13 percentage points from last week and 2.01 percentage points from the same period last year. The start - up load of semi - steel tires was 72.77%, down 1.60 percentage points from last week and 6.01 percentage points from the same period last year. Semi - steel tire export orders slowed. Typhoons may increase supply, and 110,000 tons of warehouse receipts will be cancelled on November 15 [10]. - **Strategy**: Arbitrage strategies include going long on RU2601 and short on RU2609 or NR [10]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 36 yuan to 4456 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4420 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 36. The 1 - 5 spread was - 311. The overall start - up rate was 78.5%, down 2.2%. Factory inventory was 322,000 tons, down 12,000 tons, and social inventory was 1.028 million tons, down 13,000 tons [11]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand situation is poor, and it's advisable to short on rallies in the medium term [12]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and the futures price was also stable, with a narrowing basis. The spot price of styrene increased, and the futures price also rose, with a strengthening basis. The upstream start - up rate was 69.25%, up 2.31%. Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 265,000 tons [14][15]. - **Strategy**: Port inventory is decreasing, and prices may stop falling in the short term [15]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price was 6835 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6855 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 20 yuan/ton, weakening by 2 yuan. The upstream start - up rate was 83.77%, up 0.89%. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 259,000 tons, and trader inventory increased by 50,000 tons [17]. - **Strategy**: Prices may oscillate at a low level [18]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price was 6400 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6520 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 120 yuan/ton, strengthening by 34 yuan. The upstream start - up rate was 77.71%, down 0.68%. Overall inventory decreased [19]. - **Strategy**: Prices may be supported when the supply - surplus situation changes in Q1 next year [20]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 40 yuan to 6830 yuan. PX CFR increased by 1 dollar to 833 dollars. The basis was - 22 yuan. The Chinese load was 86.8%, down 3%, and the Asian load was 78.5%, down 1.7%. Some installations were shut down or under maintenance [22]. - **Strategy**: There may be inventory accumulation in November, but there is support, and there may be opportunities for valuation increase in the medium term [23]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 16 yuan to 4696 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 4630 yuan. The basis was - 69 yuan. The load was 72.1%, down 3.6%. Some installations were under maintenance, and downstream load increased [24]. - **Strategy**: Supply - side inventory may accumulate in November, and PTA processing fees are under pressure, but it may strengthen when PXN rises in the medium term [25]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract decreased by 81 yuan to 3822 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased by 34 yuan to 3885 yuan. The basis was 32 yuan. The load was 70.7%, down 0.9%. Port inventory increased by 71,000 tons [27]. - **Strategy**: Inventory is accumulating, and it's advisable to short on rallies [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefins - PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand growth, with reduced maintenance leading to increased supply and a slight accumulation of inventory under the pressure of new production capacity. PE shows increased supply and decreased demand. Although unplanned maintenance eases some supply pressure, imported goods are abundant, and demand is generally weak except for agricultural films. The inventory of hedging merchants is gradually decreasing, the basis is strengthening, and inventory is being cleared. When the price is below 6800, the downstream's willingness to buy increases. The cost side is affected by the shock of crude oil and the strength of coal, and the PDH profit has continued to weaken this week. [2] Methanol - In the domestic market, Baofeng continues to purchase externally, and Jiutai has an unexpected maintenance. The domestic production will continue to increase. Currently, the marginal devices in the domestic market have suffered losses. In the port market, the gas restriction in Iran has been postponed, and the shipment has accelerated. As of November 19, Iran has shipped 885,000 tons, putting significant pressure on the port methanol market. With high inventory and the profit of imported methanol from Iran, the willingness to hold goods has weakened, and the price has declined while the basis remains stable. The demand side is based on rigid procurement. The market is currently trading on the logic of "weak reality", and the core contradiction lies in the high inventory in the port. The inventory contradiction of the 01 contract cannot be resolved, and the weak reality will continue to be traded before the gas restriction in Iran. [4] Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: The market has returned to a weak state, and the overall pattern of oversupply is still prominent. Fundamentally, the weekly production remains at a high level of around 750,000 tons, and the oversupply is obvious compared with the current rigid demand. The inventory of manufacturers has been transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory has continued to rise. In the medium term, there is no expectation of a significant increase in downstream production capacity, so the overall demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid demand pattern. If there is no actual production capacity exit or load reduction in the future, the supply - demand situation will be further pressured. - Glass: The spot sales have strengthened, and the high sales rate in some regions has continued to be above 100%. Consecutive price cuts have driven the middle and lower reaches to purchase. Although 4 production lines in the Shahe area were cold - repaired last week, there will be production lines restarting and igniting in the future, which will put pressure on the supply side. The latest deep - processing order days have improved slightly, and there is still some rigid demand support in the short term as November is the peak season for year - end rush work. However, in the medium and long term, at the end of the peak season, the market is worried about the sustainability of future demand. As the temperature in the north drops, outdoor construction will gradually stop, and the demand side will shrink after December, putting pressure on the glass price. The real estate is still in the bottom cycle, and the completion volume has decreased significantly. Therefore, in the oversupply pattern, the glass industry still needs to clear production capacity to solve the oversupply dilemma. [7] PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda: The supply - demand situation of the caustic soda industry still faces certain pressure. The purchasing enthusiasm of the main downstream alumina has decreased, so the support from the main demand side of caustic soda is weak, which suppresses the caustic soda price upwards. During the northern environmental protection control period, some alumina plants may have production reduction expectations. There is an overhaul expectation in the East China region, and the supply will decrease slightly. The price in this region may be relatively stable due to certain rigid demand support, but in the long term, the supply - demand still has pressure. The non - aluminum market is still sluggish, and overall, the supply - demand pressure is still relatively large. It is expected that the caustic soda price will fluctuate weakly. - PVC: The PVC spot market continues to fluctuate weakly. This week, maintenance and partial device load reduction have led to a decrease in production on a month - on - month basis, but it is still at a high level. Affected by local logistics, the market arrivals have decreased, and the social inventory has decreased on a month - on - month basis. Next week, the supply - side operating rate will increase. The demand side is in the traditional off - season from November to January of the next year. As the outdoor construction in the north gradually decreases in winter, the overall real estate demand reduction still has a negative impact. In terms of exports, India has officially cancelled the BIS certification for imported PVC issued in 2024, which is beneficial for domestic PVC to enter the Indian market. However, there is an expectation of anti - dumping duties, and the Asian contract price for December is still to be observed next week. It is expected that the external demand will be difficult to increase. The overall demand side has limited support for PVC. The supply - demand is still in an oversupply pattern, and it is difficult for the price to form an upward drive. It is expected to continue the weak pattern at the bottom. [8] Natural Rubber - The supply side: Yunnan has encountered cold weather, which has accelerated the end of the tapping season in Yunnan. The rainy season in southern Thailand continues, and the price of overseas raw materials is high, which strongly supports the rubber price. The demand side: Currently, the overall demand is weak. Channels are cautious in purchasing and mainly focus on digesting inventory. Next week, the purchasing enthusiasm of some agents on an as - needed basis may increase slightly, which will drive the overall sales volume. However, the overall demand is weakening, and the actual increase in purchasing volume is limited. The market still mainly focuses on digesting inventory. In conclusion, the natural rubber inventory has entered the seasonal inventory accumulation period, and the terminal demand support is insufficient. There is an expectation that the operating rate of downstream enterprises will further decline. It is expected that the natural rubber market will enter a range - bound consolidation. In the future, attention should be paid to the raw material output in the peak production season of the main producing areas and macro - level changes. If the raw material supply is smooth, the rubber price is expected to decline. If the raw material supply is not smooth, the rubber price is expected to operate in the range of 15,000 - 15,500. [9] Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: Recently, many sets of pure benzene devices have overhaul expectations, but the import expectation remains high, and the overall supply may still be relatively loose. On the demand side, the load of downstream styrene has increased due to the restart of some devices, but some loss - making varieties have reduced production to maintain prices, and the domestic demand side has limited support. The port inventory has increased, and there are still many arrivals in the future, so the supply pressure of pure benzene is relatively large. After the overhaul of the disproportionation device in the US Gulf ends, the support from blending oil may weaken, but South Korea's aromatics have an export expectation to the US, and the US dollar price of pure benzene has increased. Overall, the supply - demand expectation of pure benzene is still relatively loose, and the limited support from the cost side may limit the upward space. It may fluctuate and consolidate. However, since the current valuation of pure benzene is low, future attention should be paid to device changes. In the short term, it is advisable to wait and see for BZ2603. - Styrene: After the overhaul of the disproportionation device in the US Gulf ends, the blending oil demand may weaken. However, in November, the supply - demand situation of styrene has further improved. With the South Korean mixed aromatics trading, styrene has an export transaction expectation, and the port inventory has decreased. There are positive factors supporting styrene, and it will mainly fluctuate and repair in the short term. However, as the profit of styrene is repaired, the overhaul of some factories may be delayed. Coupled with the trial operation of new devices and the expected weakening of downstream EPS demand, it is expected that the upward space of styrene will be limited. In the short term, the price of EB01 may mainly fluctuate and consolidate. [10] Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Recently, the operating loads of Asian and domestic PX have decreased. However, the supply of Asian MX is abundant, and some factories rely on MX to supplement PX production, so the PX supply still remains at a relatively high level. On the demand side, the PTA price still has certain support this week. However, the spot floating price and monthly spread of PX are still weak, and the overall support from oil prices is limited. It is expected that the rebound space of PX is limited. Strategically, PX should be regarded as a short - term high - level shock. - PTA: As two PTA devices in East China are gradually under maintenance, the basis has slightly strengthened. According to the balance sheet, the supply - demand of PTA is in a tight balance in November, but the supply - demand of PTA is expected to be relatively loose from December to the first quarter of next year, and the upward drive of the basis is limited. In terms of absolute price, recently, the absolute price of PTA is relatively strong due to the support of blending oil demand and India's cancellation of BIS certification. However, the overall support from oil prices is limited, and the rebound space of PTA is still limited. Strategically, TA should be regarded as a short - term high - level shock, and TA1 - 5 should be treated as a rolling reverse spread. - Ethylene glycol: The operating load of ethylene glycol is at a high level. The arrival of overseas ethylene glycol shipments is relatively concentrated in November, and the port inventory will continue to increase recently, and the basis will weaken. In addition, the inventory accumulation amplitude of ethylene glycol from November to December is expected to be relatively high, and the upward pressure on ethylene glycol is significant. Strategically, the seller of the out - of - the - money call option with an exercise price of no less than 4100 for EG2601 should hold, and EG1 - 5 should be reversely spread at high levels. - Short - fiber: Although the spot processing margin of short - fiber has been significantly compressed recently, there is still profit at present, and the inventory pressure of short - fiber factories is not large, so the short - fiber supply remains at a high level. On the demand side, the terminal demand has seasonally weakened in November. In addition, the cancellation of India's BIS certification has certain benefits for PTA and filament, but has relatively little impact on short - fiber. Therefore, under the short - term weak supply - demand expectation and cost - side support, it is expected that the absolute price of short - fiber will be under pressure, and the processing margin still has room for compression. Strategically, the unilateral strategy is the same as that of PTA; the processing margin on the disk should be shorted at high levels. - Bottle - grade polyester: In mid - November, the Huarun device has both maintenance and restart. In addition, according to Longzhong Information, the commissioning of the new device of Dongying Fuhai has been postponed, and the domestic supply has not changed much. Considering that November is in the off - season of demand and the window period between the Spring Festival stocking, the demand side has insufficient support for bottle - grade polyester. The supply - demand of bottle - grade polyester remains in a loose pattern. Therefore, the social inventory of bottle - grade polyester will probably enter the seasonal inventory accumulation channel, and PR will mainly fluctuate with the cost side. The processing margin of PR is limitedly boosted by supply - demand and will change dynamically with the raw material cost. Strategically, the unilateral strategy of PR is the same as that of PTA; the processing margin of the main contract of PR is expected to fluctuate in the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton. [12] Crude Oil - Overnight, affected by the news that Russia and Ukraine may restart peace talks, the geopolitical premium has declined, and the oil price has declined under pressure. However, EIA data shows that the US crude oil inventory has decreased more than expected, and the decline of the oil price has been slightly narrowed. Recently, attacks or sanctions caused by the Russia - Ukraine issue have had a short - term impact on the oil price. However, under the pressure of continuous production increase by OPEC+ and the record - high US crude oil production, the supply - demand pattern of crude oil is still weak, and the upward pressure on the oil price is significant. In the short term, attention should be paid to the support of Brent crude oil at $60 per barrel and the geopolitical dynamics between Russia and Ukraine. [14] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: The closing prices of L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 have all increased, and the L15 and PP15 spreads have also increased. The spot prices of East China PP raffia and North China LLDPE have increased, while the North China LL basis has decreased significantly, and the East China pp basis has remained unchanged. The prices of some PE and PP non - standard products have remained unchanged, while the prices of some have decreased. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory and social inventory have decreased, while PP enterprise inventory has increased, and PP trader inventory has decreased. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of PE devices has increased slightly, while the weighted operating rate of PE downstream has decreased slightly. The operating rate of PP devices and powder devices has increased, and the weighted operating rate of PP downstream has increased slightly. [2] Methanol - **Price and Spread**: The closing prices of MA2601 and MA2605 have decreased, and the MA15 spread has increased. The basis of Taicang has remained unchanged. The spot prices of Inner Mongolia North Line and Henan Luoyang have increased, while the spot price of Taicang Port has decreased. The regional spreads have changed significantly. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory, port inventory, and social inventory have all decreased. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of domestic and overseas upstream enterprises have increased, the production - sales rate of Northwest enterprises has increased, the operating rate of downstream external - procurement MTO devices has decreased, the operating rate of downstream formaldehyde has increased slightly, the operating rate of downstream acetic acid has decreased significantly, and the operating rate of downstream MTBE has increased. [4] Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Spread**: The prices of glass in North China have remained unchanged, while the prices in East China, Central China, and South China have decreased. The closing prices of glass 2601 have decreased, and the closing price of glass 2605 has remained unchanged. The 01 basis has increased. The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest have remained unchanged. The closing prices of soda ash 2601 and 2605 have decreased, and the 01 basis has increased significantly. - **Supply**: The operating rate and weekly output of soda ash have decreased slightly, the daily melting volume of float glass has remained unchanged, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has decreased, and the price of 3.2mm coated glass has decreased. - **Inventory**: The inventory of glass factories has increased, the inventory of soda ash factories has increased, the inventory of soda ash delivery warehouses has decreased, and the inventory days of soda ash in glass factories have remained unchanged. - **Real Estate Data**: The new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area have all decreased compared with the previous period. [7] PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: The prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda and 50% liquid caustic soda have remained unchanged. The market prices of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC and East China ethylene - based PVC have decreased. The prices of SHSEOS, SH2601, V2605, and V2601 have decreased, and the V basis has increased significantly. - **Export and Profit**: The overseas quotes and export profits of caustic soda and PVC have some data unavailable, and some data have changed. - **Supply and Profit**: The operating rate of the caustic soda industry and the sample operating rate in Shandong have decreased slightly, the operating rate of PVC has decreased, the profit of externally - purchased calcium - carbide - based PVC has remained unchanged, and the profit of Northwest integrated PVC has decreased. - **Demand**: The operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC have increased or decreased. The pre - sales volume of PVC has decreased. - **Inventory**: The factory - warehouse inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China and Shandong has decreased, the upstream factory - warehouse inventory of PVC has decreased, and the total social inventory of PVC has decreased. [8] Natural Rubber - **Price and Spread**: The price of Yunnan state - owned full - latex has increased, the full - latex basis has decreased, the price of Thai standard mixed rubber has decreased, the non - standard price difference has decreased significantly, and the prices of some raw materials have remained unchanged. The 9 - 1 spread has remained unchanged, the 1 - 5 spread has increased, and the 5 - 9 spread has decreased. - **Production and Consumption**: The production of Thailand, Indonesia, and China in September has changed, the production of India has increased. The operating rates of semi - steel and full - steel tires have changed slightly, the domestic tire production in October has decreased, the tire export volume in October has decreased, the import volume of natural rubber in September has increased, and the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber in October has decreased. - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber in the SHFE have increased, the出库 rate of dry rubber in the bonded warehouse in Qingdao has decreased, and the入库 and出库 rates of dry rubber in general trade in Qingdao have increased. [9] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and CFR Japan naphtha have decreased, the price of CFR Northeast Asia ethylene has remained unchanged, the price of CFR China pure benzene has increased, the pure benzene - naphtha spread and ethylene - naphtha spread have decreased,

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [2]. - For methanol, high port inventories suppress prices. Overseas production remains high, and with coal prices strong and enterprise profits falling, supply pressure persists. Demand is weak, so prices may decline further, and it's recommended to wait and see [3]. - For urea, the market is sensitive to news. Domestic demand lacks support, and supply is high. New export policies have improved the market atmosphere, and inventories are decreasing. Urea prices are expected to bottom out with limited downside [6]. - For rubber, the current view is bullish. Short - term bullish trading with quick in - and - out is recommended, and partial position - building for the hedge of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is advised [9]. - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and export expectations are weakening. It's recommended to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [10]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the BZN spread has room to recover. Port inventories are decreasing, and styrene prices may stop falling temporarily [14]. - For polyethylene, the price may remain in a low - level oscillation. The cost - driven decline may shift to the impact of South Korea's ethylene clearance policy [17]. - For polypropylene, in a weak supply - demand situation with high inventory pressure, the price may be supported when the supply - surplus situation of the cost side changes in Q1 next year [19]. - For PX, it is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory in November, but there is support from aromatics blending for gasoline and the long - term supply - demand structure. Mid - term valuation increase opportunities are worth attention [22]. - For PTA, it is expected to accumulate inventory in November. Although polyester load may remain high, PTA processing fees are under pressure. Pay attention to the opportunity of PTA strengthening driven by the increase of PXN in the medium term [24]. - For ethylene glycol, inventories are expected to accumulate in Q4. With a weak pattern, the valuation may be further compressed, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 2.20 yuan/barrel, a 0.48% increase, to 464.50 yuan/barrel. Fujeirah port's gasoline inventory decreased by 1.11 million barrels to 6.31 million barrels, a 14.96% decline; diesel inventory increased by 0.02 million barrels to 2.85 million barrels, a 0.56% increase; fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.25 million barrels to 10.65 million barrels, a 2.33% decline; total refined oil inventory decreased by 1.35 million barrels to 19.81 million barrels, a 6.37% decline [1]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, and wait and see in the short term [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: Taicang's price decreased by 5, Lunan remained stable, Inner Mongolia increased by 5, the 01 contract on the futures market decreased by 17 yuan to 2013 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 16. The 1 - 5 spread was - 14, reported at - 137 [2]. - **Strategy**: High port inventories, strong coal prices, and weak demand. It's recommended to wait and see as prices may decline [3]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: Shandong's spot price increased by 10, Henan's by 20, Hubei's by 10. The 01 contract on the futures market increased by 1 yuan to 1663 yuan, and the basis was - 53. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 2 to - 72 [5]. - **Strategy**: The market is sensitive to news. With high supply and weak demand, new export policies have improved the situation, and prices are expected to bottom out [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Rubber prices rebounded. Typhoons affected rainfall in Thailand. Shanghai Exchange's November natural rubber warehouse receipts are about to be delivered. The long - short views are divided. Tire factory operating rates are neutral, and inventories are mixed [8]. - **Strategy**: Bullish view, short - term bullish trading with quick in - and - out, and partial position - building for the hedge of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [9]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 28 yuan to 4492 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4450 (- 30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 42 (- 2) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 306 (+ 13) yuan/ton. Costs decreased, production and demand decreased, and inventories decreased [9]. - **Strategy**: Weak fundamentals, supply is strong, demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. Consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The price of East China pure benzene remained unchanged, the spot price of styrene decreased, and the futures price increased. Supply increased, demand increased slightly, and port inventories decreased [13]. - **Strategy**: The BZN spread has room to recover, and styrene prices may stop falling temporarily [14]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price increased, the spot price decreased, the basis weakened. Upstream production decreased, inventories were mixed, and downstream demand was weak [16]. - **Strategy**: The price may remain in a low - level oscillation due to cost and supply - demand factors [17]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price increased, the spot price decreased, the basis weakened. Upstream production increased, inventories were mixed, and downstream demand increased slightly [18]. - **Strategy**: In a weak supply - demand situation with high inventory pressure, the price may be supported when the cost - side situation changes in Q1 next year [19]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX01 contract increased by 102 yuan to 6870 yuan, and the PX CFR increased by 5 dollars to 832 dollars. Loads decreased in China and Asia, and some plants had maintenance or production cuts. Imports increased, and inventories increased [21]. - **Strategy**: Expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory in November, but there is support from the supply - demand structure. Mid - term valuation increase opportunities are worth attention [22]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract increased by 42 yuan to 4712 yuan, and the spot price in East China increased by 30 yuan/ton to 4640 yuan. Loads decreased, some plants had maintenance or production increases, downstream loads decreased, and inventories increased [23]. - **Strategy**: Expected to accumulate inventory in November, processing fees are under pressure. Pay attention to the opportunity of PTA strengthening driven by the increase of PXN in the medium term [24]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract decreased by 4 yuan to 3903 yuan, and the spot price in East China decreased by 33 yuan to 3919 yuan. Supply loads were mixed, downstream loads decreased, imports were expected, and port inventories increased [26]. - **Strategy**: Inventories are expected to accumulate in Q4, and the valuation may be further compressed. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [27].

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 11 月 19 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二油价重心上移，其中 WTI 12 月合约收盘上涨 0.83 美元至 | | | | 60.74 美元/桶，涨幅 1.39%。布伦特 1 月合约收盘上涨 0.69 美元 | | | | 至 64.89 美元/桶，涨幅 1.07%。SC2512 以 466 元/桶收盘，上涨 | | | | 5.4 元/桶，涨幅 1.17%。新换主力合约 SC2601 合约收盘在 465.7 | | | | 元/桶，上涨 3.4 元/桶，涨幅为 0.74%。API 数据显示，上周，美 | | | | 国 API 原油库存+444.8 万桶，之前一周+130 万桶。上周 API 库 | | | | 欣原油库存-79 万桶。上周 API 成品油汽油库存+154.6 万桶、馏 | | | | 分油库存+57.7 万桶。国家统计局公布数据显示，中国 2025 年 10 | | | 原油 | 月汽油产量为 1345.7 万吨，同比增加 1.7%，1-10 月累计产 ...

Group 1: Polyolefin Industry Core View PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand growth, with reduced maintenance driving supply recovery and inventory slightly accumulating under new - capacity pressure; PE shows increased supply and decreased demand. The market is in an oversupply situation, and it is recommended to gradually stop losses and reduce positions on previous short positions near the previous low, with limited expected rebound space [2]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On November 18, compared with November 17, L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 closing prices all declined, with L15 and PP15 spreads also decreasing. Spot prices of some products like East China PP filament and North China LDPE decreased, while North China LL basis and East China pp basis increased [2]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE downstream weighted开工率 decreased by 0.80%, PE enterprise inventory increased by 7.96%, and social inventory decreased by 1.86%. PP装置开工率 increased by 2.28%, and downstream weighted开工率 increased by 0.3% [2]. Group 2: Methanol Industry Core View The inland market has increasing output, and marginal devices are in loss. The port methanol market is under pressure due to high inventory and increased Iranian shipments. The market is trading on the "weak reality" logic, and the inventory contradiction of the 01 contract cannot be resolved before Iranian gas restrictions [4]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On November 18, compared with November 17, MA2601 and MA2605 closing prices increased slightly, while MA15 spread decreased. Some regional spot prices changed slightly, and regional spreads also changed [4]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 4.44%, port inventory increased by 3.80%, and social inventory increased by 2.10%. Upstream domestic and overseas enterprise开工率 increased slightly, while downstream - outer - purchased MTO装置开工率 decreased by 2.38% [4]. Group 3: Ester Industry Chain Core View PX supply remains at a relatively high level, and demand support is weak. PTA supply - demand is expected to be loose in the future, and its rebound space is limited. Ethylene glycol will see inventory accumulation, and its price is under pressure. Short - fiber supply is high, and demand is weak. Bottle - chip supply - demand is in a loose pattern [7]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On November 18, compared with November 17, prices of some upstream products like Brent crude oil increased, while prices of some downstream polyester products decreased. PX - related spreads and PTA - related spreads also changed [7]. - **Inventory and开工率**: MEG port inventory increased by 10.7%. Asian and Chinese PX开工率 decreased, PTA开工率 decreased slightly, and polyester综合开工率 decreased by 0.9% [7]. Group 4: Crude Oil Industry Core View The continuous attacks on Russian refineries and sanctions have increased concerns about crude oil supply, which has boosted oil prices in the short term. However, under the pressure of OPEC + continuous production increase and high US crude oil production, the crude oil supply - demand pattern is still weak, and the rebound space of oil prices is limited. Short - term Brent crude oil may fluctuate in the range of $60 - 66 per barrel [9]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On November 18, compared with November 17, Brent, WTI, and SC prices increased. Spreads such as Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, and SC M1 - M3 also changed [9]. - **Product Price and Spread**: Prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil increased, and their M1 - M3 spreads also increased [9]. - **Crack Spread**: Some crack spreads such as US gasoline and European gasoline changed, with US diesel and Singapore diesel crack spreads increasing significantly [9]. Group 5: Natural Rubber Industry Core View Supply - side factors support rubber prices, but overall demand is weak. The market is expected to enter range - bound consolidation, and attention should be paid to raw material output in the peak - production season of major producing areas and macro - level changes [10]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On November 18, compared with November 17, the price of Yunnan state - owned full - latex increased slightly, and the full - latex basis increased. Some raw material prices changed slightly [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: September production in Thailand, Indonesia, etc. changed. Tire开工率 of semi - steel and full - steel decreased slightly, and October domestic tire production decreased [10]. - **Inventory Change**: Bonded - area inventory and natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory increased, while the出库 rate of dry rubber in Qingdao changed [10]. Group 6: Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Core View Pure benzene supply pressure is large, and its fundamentals are weak. Short - term BZ2603 may fluctuate or be short - biased at high levels. Styrene supply - demand has improved, and it may oscillate and repair in the short term, but its upward space is limited [11]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On November 18, compared with November 17, prices of some upstream products like Brent crude oil changed, and prices of pure benzene and styrene - related products also changed. Spreads such as EB - BZ现货价差 increased [11]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory increased, and Asian and domestic pure benzene开工率 changed. Styrene开工率 increased, and downstream ABS开工率 increased slightly [11]. Group 7: LPG Industry Core View No clear overall view is mentioned in the text, mainly presenting price, inventory, and开工率 data [13]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On November 18, compared with November 17, PG2512, PG2601, etc. prices decreased, and spreads such as PG12 - 01 decreased [13]. - **Inventory and开工率**: LPG refinery storage - capacity ratio decreased slightly, port inventory decreased by 5.66%, and port storage - capacity ratio decreased. Upstream - main refinery开工率 decreased slightly, and downstream - PDH开工率 decreased by 4.92% [13]. Group 8: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Core View Soda ash is in an oversupply situation, and it is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities after a rebound. Glass has short - term rigid - demand support, but in the medium - and long - term, demand will shrink, and prices will be under pressure [15]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On November 18, compared with November 17, glass and soda ash futures prices decreased slightly, and their basis increased [15]. - **开工率 and Production**: Soda ash开工率 decreased by 1.72%, and weekly production decreased by 1.71%. Float - glass daily melting volume remained unchanged [15]. - **Inventory and Real - Estate Data**: Glass warehouse inventory increased, and some real - estate data such as new - construction area and sales area changed [15]. Group 9: PVC and Caustic Soda Industry Core View Caustic soda supply - demand has pressure, and its price is expected to oscillate weakly. PVC is in an oversupply situation, and its price is expected to continue the bottom - weakening pattern [16]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On November 18, compared with November 17, prices of PVC and caustic soda - related products decreased slightly, and their basis and spreads changed [16]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Caustic soda and PVC inventory decreased slightly. Caustic soda and PVC开工率 decreased, and downstream开工率 of caustic soda and PVC also changed [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The energy and chemical industry will continue to fluctuate and consolidate, with olefins being weak and aromatics showing a slightly stronger pattern [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: The expectation of oversupply is strengthening, and geopolitical disturbances still exist. The price will fluctuate in the short - term due to factors such as supply pressure, positive signals from cracking prices, and unconfirmed geopolitical concerns [4][8]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price is in a weak and fluctuating state. The current over - supply situation and continuous inventory accumulation are difficult to change, and the price is under pressure [4][9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures price is in a weak and fluctuating state. The price is affected by factors such as geopolitical situation, demand, and cracking spread, and attention should be paid to the development of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [4][9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil is supported by the strengthening of refined oil. It is expected to fluctuate with crude oil, although it faces some negative factors such as the decline of shipping demand and the substitution of green energy [4][11]. - **Methanol**: High inventory suppresses the price, and overseas disturbances are not significant. Methanol is in a low - level fluctuating state, and it is expected to have a short - term narrow - range fluctuation [4][25]. - **Urea**: The downstream follows up at low prices, and the futures price rises slightly. In the short term, it is expected to rise slightly and generally fluctuate and consolidate [4][25]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The circulation of goods in the market increases, and the basis remains weak. The price is expected to maintain a low - level range fluctuation, and the EG01 - 05 spread is still recommended to be shorted at high levels [4][20]. - **PX**: The market sentiment has cooled slightly, and the cost support is not strong. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, waiting for further feedback from the market [4][12]. - **PTA**: The emotional fermentation has ended, and the fundamental variables are limited. The price is expected to fluctuate with the cost, and the TA01 - 05 reverse spread position can be temporarily left for observation [4][13]. - **Short - Fiber**: The price difference between high and low prices in the market is gradually widening, and the factory's sales are difficult. There is still room for profit compression, and the price is expected to fluctuate with the upstream [4][21]. - **Bottle Chip**: The trading atmosphere has declined, and it follows the cost passively. The absolute value will fluctuate with the raw materials, and the processing fee has stronger support below [4][23]. - **Propylene**: The spot price has strengthened in the short term, and the PL fluctuates. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4][28]. - **PP**: The fundamental pressure has been priced in, and attention should be paid to the changes in maintenance. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [4][27]. - **Plastic**: The short - term maintenance support is limited, and the plastic fluctuates. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4][26]. - **Styrene**: Affected by the narrative of blending for oil, styrene fluctuates after a rebound. The price is affected by factors such as the blending for oil and the inventory of pure benzene, and the market is in a state of game between expectation and reality [4][17]. - **PVC**: The cancellation of anti - dumping duties boosts the market sentiment again. Although the fundamentals are under pressure, the short - term market sentiment is improved [4][30]. - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, caustic soda fluctuates. The supply - demand expectation is poor, but the falling price of liquid chlorine pushes up the cost, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [4][32]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy Chemical Daily Index Monitoring** - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, which reflect the market's expectations for different time periods of each variety [34]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipt data of each variety are provided, which can help analyze the relationship between the spot and futures prices and the supply situation in the market [35]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The spread data between different varieties are given, which can reflect the relative price relationship between different varieties and provide reference for arbitrage trading [36]. - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring** - Although specific data analysis is not carried out in the text, it is expected to provide more in - depth monitoring and analysis of the basis and spread of various chemical products [37][49][61]. 3.3 Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, special index, PPI commodity index, and sector index of the commodity are provided. The energy index shows a decline of 0.61% on November 18, 2025, a decline of 2.25% in the past 5 days, an increase of 3.31% in the past month, and a decline of 6.87% since the beginning of the year [275][276][277].