Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for methanol is "Oscillation" [6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the Xinjiang methanol market has ample supply due to new capacity, with an expected 1.3 million tons/year and a growth rate of about 28%. This may ease the previous supply tightness and benefit downstream enterprises, but there are still issues with goods circulation [1][13]. - The downstream consumption structure of methanol in Xinjiang is diverse, mainly including olefins, BDO, silicone, and formaldehyde. However, the overall profitability is weak, and the downstream demand is relatively weak compared to the previous year, resulting in a lackluster market price. External demand is needed to relieve the supply pressure [2][17]. - Transportation limitations restrict the circulation of methanol supply to some extent. The cancellation of hazardous chemical transportation qualifications at railway freight stations and high road - transport costs limit the connection between Xinjiang's methanol supply and the external market. However, it may promote the growth of local demand [3][18]. - From the cost perspective, the coal price in Xinjiang has dropped compared to the same period last year. Since the price is already at a relatively low level, the subsequent decline of Xinjiang methanol is expected to be limited, and the price has support [4][59] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Background and Purpose of the Xinjiang Methanol Industry Chain Research - From 2020 to the present, the Xinjiang methanol market has developed rapidly. With policy support, downstream industries have been continuously put into production, driving the demand for methanol in the region. Most of the methanol in Xinjiang is for self - use, with a small amount for export. The research aims to understand the production and sales of regional enterprises in 2024 and 2025, raw material costs, the impact of methanol prices on production, and growth opportunities in the BDO industry [12] 2. Core Conclusions of the Research - **Supply Situation**: The Xinjiang methanol market has a relatively loose supply due to new capacity. The release of methanol capacity may ease the previous supply tightness, but there are problems with goods circulation [13] - **Downstream Consumption and Profitability**: The downstream consumption structure is diverse, but the profitability is weak. The profitability of BDO, formaldehyde, and silicone has declined compared to 2024, leading to weaker downstream demand and a lackluster market price [17] - **Transportation Impact**: Transportation limitations restrict the circulation of methanol supply but may promote local demand. The cancellation of railway transportation qualifications and high road - transport costs limit the connection with the external market [18] 3. Detailed Research on the Xinjiang Methanol Industry Chain 3.1 Xinjiang Methanol and Downstream Enterprise A - **Enterprise Information**: It is a large - scale methanol and downstream deep - processing enterprise with about 1 million tons of ethylene glycol, about 200,000 tons of BDO, and about 900,000 tons of methanol production capacity [29] - **Business Model and Sales Strategy**: It mainly sells within Xinjiang and exports a small amount outside. It can adjust the sales ratio according to price differences. Most of the long - term contracts are in the "locked - quantity and open - price" mode, and spot trading is the main sales method. It currently relies on road transportation, and the traditional export destinations are Southwest China, Shandong, Ningxia, and Hebei [30] - **Profitability and Operating Rate of Downstream Products**: The profitability of the BDO product has weakened, and the operating rate is low. The price is in the range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan. The core reasons for the market downturn are over - capacity and weak demand [31] - **View on Methanol Price**: The company expects that the methanol price in Xinjiang will not return to the high level at the beginning of the year in the second half of this year due to increased supply and a more relaxed supply - demand pattern [33] - **Problems and Challenges**: The company lacks railway transportation qualifications and is limited by storage tank capacity, which restricts inventory adjustment and price - fluctuation response [34] - **Transportation and Cost Optimization Strategies**: It plans to obtain railway transportation qualifications and explore cooperation with national pipelines for transportation. It will also optimize procurement and inventory strategies to control costs [35] 3.2 Xinjiang Methanol and Downstream Enterprise B - **Enterprise Information**: It is a large - scale methanol and downstream enterprise. After technological transformation, its methanol production capacity has reached 900,000 tons/year, but it is restricted by storage tank capacity and has high export pressure [36] - **Profitability and Operating Rate of Downstream Products**: The BDO industry is in a slump, with over - capacity, weak demand, and price decline, leading to losses and production cuts. The company plans to commission an acetic acid plant and install an acetic anhydride plant, which is expected to make a small profit [37] - **Strategic Planning and Future Strategies**: It explores a pricing mechanism based on the mainland's long - term contract settlement model, extends the industrial chain through methanol - to - ethanol projects, and promotes cooperation with enterprises like Geely to increase demand [38][39][40] - **Outlook on the Xinjiang Methanol Market**: The company expects that the methanol price in Xinjiang will not return to the high level at the beginning of the year in the second half of this year. In the long term, the industry may gradually get out of trouble with the promotion of methanol fuel applications and industrial chain extension [41] 3.3 Xinjiang Methanol and Downstream Enterprise C - **Enterprise Information**: It is a large - scale methanol downstream enterprise with two 100,000 - ton formaldehyde production lines, consuming about 100,000 tons of methanol annually [42] - **Profitability and Operating Rate**: Only formaldehyde can make a small profit, and the other three products are slightly in the red. The overall production load is about 70% [43] - **Future Planning**: It plans to build methanol storage and trading businesses to better handle price fluctuations and provide potential opportunities for industry cooperation [44] 3.4 Xinjiang Methanol and Downstream Enterprise D - **Enterprise Information**: It is a large - scale chemical enterprise covering coal and coal - chemical industries, with 5 coal mines and production capacities of about 300,000 tons of synthetic ammonia, 500,000 tons of urea, 300,000 tons of methanol, and 60,000 tons of melamine [45] - **Profitability and Business Planning**: The profitability of traditional downstream products like formaldehyde has declined since May due to the weakening of the national methanol price. The formaldehyde production line's operating rate has dropped to about 70% [46] - **Discussion on Downstream Application Market Expansion**: Methanol vehicles are expected to create incremental demand for methanol. The company also plans to extend the urea industrial chain and explore emerging fields such as methanol - to - olefins and green methanol [47][48] 3.5 Xinjiang Methanol and Downstream Enterprise E - **Enterprise Information**: It currently has a methanol output of about 500,000 tons, with a 100,000 - ton MTG (methanol - to - gasoline) device and a 60,000 - ton polyoxymethylene device under construction. In the future, it will use all its methanol self - sufficiently [49] - **Operating Conditions**: Last year, its production and sales were good, but the export volume decreased due to self - use. The MTG gasoline can basically break even, and the POM product is mainly sold to East and South China, with the market demand yet to be further observed [50] - **Discussion on Energy Prices**: The coal purchase price is in the range of 80 - 170 yuan/ton (including tax at the mine mouth), and the cost increases after adding freight. New energy projects in the Northwest have replaced some coal demand [51] 3.6 Xinjiang Methanol and Downstream Enterprise F - **Enterprise Information**: After technological transformation, its designed methanol production capacity has reached 1 million tons/year [52] - **Operating Conditions**: It uses a "two - on - one - standby" configuration of three furnaces, currently operating only one with a daily output of about 3,000 tons and an operating rate of about 50%. The methanol quality is high [53] - **Inventory Status**: It currently has zero inventory, but inventory pressure may increase if downstream demand is insufficient after double - furnace operation [54] - **View on the Downstream Market**: The demand for traditional downstream products like formaldehyde and acetic acid has decreased by about 10% due to the real - estate slump [55] - **Transportation Radius and Storage Layout**: The transportation radius within Xinjiang is 300 - 500 kilometers, and the long - distance transportation cost is high. It plans to build a 70,000 - ton warehouse for export storage and trading [56] - **Cost Difference between Coal - to - Methanol and Natural - Gas - to - Methanol**: The cash cost of coal - to - methanol in the Northwest is about 1,300 - 1,500 yuan/ton, while the cost of natural - gas - to - methanol in the Southwest is about 2,300 - 2,500 yuan/ton [57] - **View on Methanol Price**: In the short term (June - August), the market may oscillate due to postponed maintenance and the off - season. In the medium - to - long - term, it depends on macro - economic recovery and methanol - fuel policy implementation [58] 4. Investment Recommendations - Considering the cost side, the coal price in Xinjiang has dropped compared to the same period last year. Since the price is already at a relatively low level, the subsequent decline of Xinjiang methanol is expected to be limited, and the price has support [4][59]

原油产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月10日 宙 扬 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料,但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证,本报告反映研究 人员的不同观点、见解及分析方法，并不代表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不拘成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士，版权归广发期货所 有,未经广发期货书面授权,任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制,如引用、刊发,需注明出处为'广发期货'。 专心,专业,专为您 关注微信公众号 聚酯产业链日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 张晓珍 Z0003135 Z0020680 | 原油价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品中 | 6月10日 | 6月9日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | Brent | 67.04 | 66.47 | 0.57 | 0.86% | 美元/ ...

能源化工期权 2025-06-10 能源化工期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | 能源化工期权策略早报概要：能源类：原油、LPG；聚烯烃类期权：聚丙烯、聚氯乙烯、塑料、苯乙烯；聚酯类期 权：对二甲苯、PTA、短纤、瓶片；碱化工类：烧碱、纯碱；其他能源化工类：橡胶等。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 数据来源：WIND、五矿期货期权服务部 能源化工期权研究 表2：期权因子—量仓PCR | 期权品种 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | 成交量 | 量PCR | 持仓量 | 仓PCR | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | P ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一油价重心继续上移，其中 WTI 7 月合约收盘上涨 0.71 美元至 | | | | 65.29 美元/桶，涨幅 1.10%。布伦特 8 月合约收盘上涨 0.57 美元 | | | | 至 67.04 美元/桶，涨幅 0.86%。SC2507 以 479.3 元/桶收盘，上涨 | | | | 5.5 元/桶，涨幅为 1.16%。调查显示，上月欧佩克石油产量为每日 | | | | 2675 万桶，较 4 月总产量增加 15 万桶/日。根据 OPEC+八个成 | | | | 员国关于 5 月产量的协议，其中五个 OPEC 成员国阿尔及利亚、 | | | | 伊拉克、科威特、沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋应将产量提高 31 万桶/日。 | | | 原油 | 这五个国家的实际增产为 18 万桶/日。5 月份我国进口原油 4660 | 震荡 | | | 万吨，环比下降 3.0%，同比下降 0.8%。1-5 月份，中国累计进口 | | | | 原油 2296 ...

能源化工日报 2025-06-10 原油 能源化工组 李 晶 首席分析师 从业资格号：F0283948 交易咨询号：Z0015498 0755-23375131 lijing@wkqh.cn 2025/06/10 原油早评： 行情方面：WTI 主力原油期货收涨 0.61 美元，涨幅 0.94%，报 65.38 美元；布伦特主力原油期 货收涨 0.48 美元，涨幅 0.72%，报 67.13 美元；INE 主力原油期货收涨 8.20 元，涨幅 1.76%， 报 474.3 元。 数据方面：中国原油周度数据出炉，原油到港库存去库 2.27 百万桶至 204.55 百万桶，环 比去库 1.10%；汽油商业库存去库 0.66 百万桶至 84.21 百万桶，环比去库 0.78%；柴油商 业库存累库 0.81 百万桶至 96.16 百万桶，环比累库 0.85%；总成品油商业库存累库 0.15 百 万桶至 180.37 百万桶，环比累库 0.09%。 我们认为当前美伊谈判未见明确结果，虽 OPEC 已体现出明确的增产数据，但叠加页岩油的托 底效应，与美伊的谈判不确定性，当前的风险收益比并不适合追空，短期观望为主。 2025 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 2025 年 6 月 9 日 橡胶甲醇原油 专业研究·创造价值 偏多因素占优 能化震荡企稳 核心观点 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 宝城期货研究所 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 橡胶：本周一国内沪胶期货 2509 合约呈现缩量减仓，震荡企稳， 略微收涨的走势，盘中期价重心略微上移至 13725 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价略微收涨 0.22%至 13725 元/吨。9-1 月差贴水幅度收敛至 870 元/吨。临近 6 月，东南亚和国内天胶产区迎来全面开割，此前泰国推 迟割胶也将进入产胶期，叠加中泰磋商天胶进口零关税。随着中美两 国首脑互通电话，宏观预期暂时好转。在偏多氛围背景下，预计后市 国内沪胶期货 2509 合约或维持震荡企稳的走势。 甲醇：本周一国内甲醇期货 2509 合约呈现放量增仓，震荡企稳， 略微收涨的走势，期价最高上涨至 2283 元/吨一线，最低下探至 2254 元 ...

原油产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月9日 宙 扬 Z0020680 | 原油价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品中 | 6月9日 | 6月6日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 単位 | | Brent | 66.48 | 66.47 | 0.01 | 0.02% | | | WTI | 64.60 | 64.58 | 0.02 | 0.03% | 美元/桶 | | ਟ | 475.90 | 467.90 | 8.00 | 1.71% | 元/桶 | | Brent M1-M3 | 1.30 | 1.32 | -0.02 | -1.52% | 美元/桶 | | WTI M1-M3 | 1.83 | 1.85 | -0.02 | -1.08% | | | SC MI-M3 | 6.90 | 7.00 | -0.10 | -1.43% | 元/桶 | | Brent-WTI | 1.88 | 1.89 | -0.01 | -0.53% | | | EFS | 1.70 | 1.72 | -0.0 ...

研究报告 甲醇周报 基本面未有实质性好转，甲醇或继续震荡 华龙期货投资咨询部 能化研究员：宋鹏 期货从业资格证号：F0295717 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011567 电话：15693075965 邮箱：2463494881@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 6 月 9 日星期一 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 上周由于部分 MTO 装置负荷提升及企业额外采购甲醇，提 振沿海市场及甲醇期货上涨，截至上周五下午收盘，甲醇加权 收于 2277 元/吨，较前一周上涨 2.48%。 【基本面】 上周，国内甲醇生产企业复产多于检修，国内甲醇供给小 幅增加。需求方面，上周甲醇下游产能利用率总体上升，需求 有所改善。库存方面，上周甲醇样本生产企业库存上升，反映 下游需求不强。企业待发订单增加，反映下游多逢低采购。由 于进口及内贸船只持续到货，港口甲醇库存同样上升。利润方 面，上周甲醇生产企业利润整体下滑。综合来看，上周甲醇基 本面未有实质性改善。 【后市展望】 本周甲醇生产企业延续复产多于检修，供给或继续增加 ...

商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分[析Ta师ble_Report] 观 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 能源化工：非农利好刺激， ...

2025/06/09 原油早评： 能源化工组 行情方面：截至周五，WTI 主力原油期货收涨 1.52 美元，涨幅 2.40%，报 64.77 美元；布伦特 主力原油期货收涨 1.36 美元，涨幅 2.08%，报 66.65 美元；INE 主力原油期货收涨 2.40 元， 涨幅 0.52%，报 466.1 元。 数据方面：欧洲 ARA 周度数据出炉，汽油库存环比去库 0.51 百万桶至 8.48 百万桶，环比 去库 5.66%；柴油库存环比累库 0.13 百万桶至 14.96 百万桶，环比累库 0.85%；燃料油库 存环比去库 0.47 百万桶至 6.83 百万桶，环比去库 6.44%；石脑油环比累库 0.28 百万桶 至 5.28 百万桶，环比累库 5.58%；航空煤油环比去库 0.05 百万桶至 6.63 百万桶，环比 去库 0.71%；总体成品油环比去库 0.62 百万桶至 42.19 百万桶，环比去库 1.45%。 张正华 高级分析师 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn 能源化工日报 2025-06-09 我们认为当前美 ...