Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the construction of a new development pattern in China, highlighting the growth of the futures market and the performance of key commodities such as stock indices, precious metals, and copper [1][2][3]. Futures Market Overview - As of October 9, 2025, the total funds in China's futures market reached approximately 2.02 trillion yuan, marking a 24% increase from the end of 2024 [1]. - Client equity in futures companies totaled about 1.91 trillion yuan, also reflecting a 24% growth from the end of 2024 [1]. Stock Indices - The U.S. stock indices rose, with the previous trading day seeing a slight recovery led by the communication sector, while the non-ferrous metals sector lagged [2]. - The market turnover was 1.75 trillion yuan, and as of October 17, the financing balance decreased by 27.3 billion yuan to 2.412835 trillion yuan [2]. - The article suggests that the stock indices are entering a phase of directional choice, with domestic liquidity expected to remain loose and external funds likely to flow into the domestic market due to anticipated Fed rate cuts and RMB appreciation [2]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have been strong, although recent upward momentum has slowed [3]. - The article notes that central banks are increasing gold reserves amid rising global tensions and distrust in the financial system, reinforcing gold's status as a safe-haven asset [3]. - Silver's supply-demand imbalance is highlighted, with potential for increased volatility following rapid price increases [3]. Copper Market - Copper prices rose in the night session, supported by tight concentrate supply and high smelting output [3][20]. - The article mentions that investment in the power grid continues to grow, while real estate remains weak, impacting overall demand for copper [20]. - The potential for a global copper supply gap due to mining issues in Indonesia is expected to support copper prices in the long term [20]. Key Commodities Performance - The article provides insights into various commodities, including palm oil, corn, and lithium carbonate, indicating mixed performance and market dynamics influenced by external factors such as trade tensions and supply chain issues [5][22][28]. International and Domestic News - The U.S. and Australia signed an agreement to enhance the production of rare earths and critical minerals, with over $3 billion planned for investment in key mineral projects [6]. - China's LPR remained unchanged for five consecutive months, reflecting stable policy rates and potential for further monetary easing in response to economic conditions [7]. Industry Developments - The Dalian Commodity Exchange announced the listing of new futures contracts for linear low-density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene, expanding the range of tradable products [8]. Market Trends - The article notes that the market is currently cautious, with a focus on upcoming trade talks and the potential impact of U.S. fiscal policies on global markets [3][19]. - The overall sentiment in the commodities market is influenced by macroeconomic factors, including inflation expectations and geopolitical developments [3][19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract is in a weak state. The market has returned to a situation dominated by a weak supply - demand structure, and under a weak macro - expectation, the contract remains weak. The contract showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, oscillating weakly, and slightly closing lower on Monday, with the price closing 0.07% lower at 14810 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 month - spread premium narrowing to 5 yuan/ton [6]. - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract is also in a weak state. The domestic methanol market is in a stage of oversupply and weak demand. The contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, oscillating weakly, and slightly closing lower on Monday, with the price closing 1.00% lower at 2266 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 month - spread discount widening to 26 yuan/ton [6]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, rebounding but being blocked, and slightly closing lower on Monday, with the price closing 0.86% lower at 435.8 yuan/barrel. Systemic risks have occurred due to the continuous shutdown of the US federal government and Trump's resumption of the trade tariff war. At the same time, OPEC+ oil - producing countries continue to increase production, and the geopolitical premium of crude oil is being reversed due to the possible end of the Palestine - Israel conflict in the Middle East [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of October 12, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 45.6 million tons, a decrease of 0.05 million tons (0.11%) from the previous period. The bonded area inventory increased by 2.02% to 7.08 million tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 0.49% to 38.52 million tons. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses increased by 3.74 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.40 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 4.11 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 4.91 percentage points [9]. - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07%, a week - on - week increase of 28.92 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.57 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, a week - on - week increase of 22.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.98 percentage points. Most enterprises' capacity utilization rates have returned to pre - holiday levels, but the overall shipment performance varies [9]. - In September 2025, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 51.2%, a 0.3 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. The new order index of logistics enterprises was 53.3%, a 1 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, remaining in a high - prosperity range above 52% for four consecutive months. In September, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 17.1% and 14.9% [10]. - In September 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was 105,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, achieving six consecutive months of growth. From January to September 2025, the cumulative sales volume of the heavy - truck market was about 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 20% [10]. Methanol - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 84.38%, a week - on - week increase of 4.00%, a month - on - month increase of 4.99%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.95%. The average weekly methanol production was 1.9837 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 49,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 64,400 tons, and a significant increase of 118,600 tons compared to the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 30.95%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.03%; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 6.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.52%; the acetic acid operating rate was 71.61%, a week - on - week decrease of 10.04%; the MTBE operating rate was 54.89%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.00%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 88.36%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.39 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 5.48% [11]. - As of October 17, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was - 252 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 53 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 106 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 1.2589 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 70,900 tons, and a significant increase of 324,600 tons compared to the same period last year. As of the week of October 16, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory was 359,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,400 tons, and a significant decrease of 109,700 tons compared to the same period last year [12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 418, a week - on - week decrease of 4 and a decrease of 83 compared to the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.636 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.7 million barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 1.36 million barrels per day [12]. - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 424 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 3.524 million barrels and a slight year - on - year increase of 3.235 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 22.001 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 703,000 barrels; the US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 407.7 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 760,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 85.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 6.7 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 7.6 percentage points, and a slight year - on - year decrease of 2.0 percentage points [13]. - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 102,958 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 4,249 contracts and a significant decrease of 19,105 contracts (a 15.65% decrease) compared to the August average. As of October 17, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 110,311 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 31,345 contracts and a significant decrease of 106,044 contracts (a 49.01% decrease) compared to the September average [13]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,250 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | 14,810 yuan/ton | + 115 yuan/ton | - 560 yuan/ton | - 115 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,290 yuan/ton | + 0 yuan/ton | 2,266 yuan/ton | - 6 yuan/ton | + 24 yuan/ton | + 6 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 421.2 yuan/barrel | + 0.1 yuan/barrel | 435.8 yuan/barrel | + 0.8 yuan/barrel | - 14.6 yuan/barrel | + 0.7 yuan/barrel | [15] 3. Related Charts - Rubber: Related charts include rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [16][18][19]. - Methanol: Related charts include methanol basis, methanol 1 - 5 month - spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [31][33][35]. - Crude Oil: Related charts include crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [44][46][48].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macrofinance**: Index futures are expected to be bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; treasury bonds should be kept under observation [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range - bound trading; glass is advised to be observed [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs; aluminum is advised to lay out long positions on dips after pullbacks; nickel is suggested to be observed or shorted on highs; tin, gold, and silver are recommended for range - bound trading [1]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to oscillate; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range oscillations; the 01 contract of soda ash should be traded with a short - selling mindset [1]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, and PTA are expected to oscillate; apples and jujubes are expected to be slightly bullish [1]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Live pigs and eggs are recommended to be shorted on highs; corn is expected to have wide - range oscillations; soybean meal is expected to have range - bound oscillations; oils are expected to be slightly bullish [1]. Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market analyses for various futures products. It takes into account factors such as macroeconomic data, industry events, supply - demand relationships, and international policies. For example, in the macro - financial sector, important meetings and potential Fed rate cuts support the stock market, while in the bond market, the outcome of Sino - US negotiations is crucial. In the black building materials sector, supply and demand factors affect the prices of coking coal, rebar, etc. Each sector's analysis is based on a combination of multiple factors to guide investment decisions [5][7][8]. Summaries by Categories Macrofinance - **Index Futures**: Last week, A - share broad - based indices all had negative weekly returns, with the ChiNext and STAR Market indices having the largest declines. This week, the release of macro - economic data and important events will affect the market. With the approaching of important meetings and the potential Fed rate cuts, the market is expected to be supported. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium to long term [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Interest - rate bond yields declined across all tenors and varieties, and credit - bond yields also decreased. Overseas credit risks led to a decline in risk appetite, but the compound negative factors in the bond market have not been fundamentally resolved. It is advisable to take partial profits during risk - event shocks. The Sino - US negotiations at the end of the month will be the key to determining market risk appetite [5]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: During the National Day, supply was temporarily halted and is expected to gradually recover after the holiday. The supply recovery is relatively slow, and coking coal has long - position value. After the holiday, the first round of coke price increases started, supported by steel mills' demand [7][8]. - **Rebar**: Last Friday, rebar futures prices oscillated. The fundamental situation shows that the price is undervalued, and with the improvement of demand and the decline of production, the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long around 3000 for the RB2601 contract [8]. - **Glass**: After the National Day, environmental protection and macro - policy expectations cooled down, and the market returned to the fundamental logic. Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and the inventory is rising. It is recommended to observe and wait for a reversal to consider going long [9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price fluctuated greatly due to trade - related news. Although the price increase suppresses demand, the demand in the fourth quarter has room for improvement. The fundamentals are relatively stable, and it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs [11]. - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite in Guinea decreased, and the operating capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum changed. The demand in the peak season is weak, but the inventory of aluminum ingots is decreasing well. It is recommended to lay out long positions on dips [13]. - **Nickel**: The price of nickel ore is firm, but the supply may become looser. Refined nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the price of nickel iron has limited upside. It is recommended to observe or short on highs [18]. - **Tin**: The domestic refined tin production decreased in September, and the supply is expected to be more relaxed in the fourth quarter. The downstream consumption is weak, and it is recommended for range - bound trading [18]. - **Silver and Gold**: Due to the delay of the US PPI data and the risk of government shutdown, the safe - haven sentiment increased. With the expectation of rate cuts and concerns about the US economy, the prices of silver and gold are expected to be supported. It is recommended to trade cautiously and build positions after sufficient pullbacks [19][20]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, and the export sustainability is questionable. It is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract is temporarily observed in the range of 4600 - 4800 [21][22]. - **Caustic Soda**: There are new maintenance plans in the short - term supply, and the demand is increasing. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract is temporarily observed for the pressure at 2450 [23][24]. - **Styrene**: The cost is under pressure, the inventory is high, and the demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate, and the range of 6400 - 6700 is to be observed [24][25]. - **Rubber**: Overseas weather improvement pressures the raw material price, but the reduction of rubber arrivals supports the price. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the support at 14500 is to be observed [26][27]. - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, the agricultural demand is scattered, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to oscillate, and factors such as compound fertilizer production and export policies should be focused on [28]. - **Methanol**: The supply is recovering, the demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry is increasing, and the inventory is at a high level. It is expected to oscillate [30]. - **Polyolefins**: The cost is affected by macro factors, the supply has an increasing expectation, and the demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the L2601 contract should pay attention to the support at 6800, and the PP2601 contract should pay attention to the support at 6500 [30][31]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot trading is light, the downstream demand is weak, and the supply is in excess. The 01 contract should be traded with a short - selling mindset [33]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation has changed, and the recent increase in seed cotton prices has led to a situation of grabbing cotton. However, due to the uncertainty between China and the US, the outlook is bearish [35]. - **PTA**: The international oil price is affected by geopolitical factors, the PTA spot price is low, and the supply - demand situation leads to a slowdown in inventory accumulation. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the range of 4350 - 4600 [34][35]. - **Apples**: The price of late - maturing Fuji apples shows a polarization, and good - quality apples are in high demand. The expected output this year is stable, but the quality has declined, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish [36][37]. - **Jujubes**: The new - season jujubes in Xinjiang are about to be harvested, and the ordering progress in different regions varies. The market is in a state of waiting and seeing, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish [37]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: The supply in October is increasing, the weight of pigs is relatively high, and the entry of secondary fattening has weakened recently. In the medium to long term, the supply will remain high before the first half of next year. It is recommended to adjust short positions according to different contracts [39][40][41]. - **Eggs**: The current egg price is supported by improved storage conditions and increased procurement, but the post - holiday demand is weak. In the medium to long term, the supply growth rate is slowing down, but the capacity clearance still takes time. It is recommended to take partial profits on short positions and wait for spot guidance [42][43][44]. - **Corn**: Currently, it is the transition period between old and new crops. The short - term supply is sufficient, and the price is under seasonal pressure. In the medium to long term, the cost has support, and the demand is moderately weak. The 11 - contract should be traded with a short - selling mindset, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [44][45]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean is under pressure from harvest and slow exports, and the domestic soybean meal is affected by import expectations. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the support at 2900 for the M2601 contract [45][46]. - **Oils**: In the short term, the callback of oils is limited. The 01 contracts of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil should pay attention to the support levels of 8150 - 8200, 9200 - 9300, and 9800 - 9900 respectively. It is recommended to go long after the callback [47][53].

Report 1: Polyolefin Industry Spot and Futures Daily Report Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand structure of polyolefins is loose, and the upside space of the 01 contract is limited. The prices of PP and PE are under pressure due to the weak macro - atmosphere, cost, and supply - demand performance [2]. Summary by Catalog - **Prices and Price Differences** - On October 17, the closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 decreased compared to the previous day, with declines ranging from - 0.79% to - 1.04%. The differences between L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 also changed, with L2509 - 2601 down 24.00% and PP2509 - 2601 up 12.33% [2]. - Spot prices of East China PP fiber and North China LDPE film decreased, with declines of - 0.62% and - 0.73% respectively. The basis of North China LL and East China PP also changed [2]. - Non - standard prices of PE and PP mostly decreased, such as the East China LDPE price down - 0.54% [2]. - **Inventory and Production** - PE enterprise inventory and social inventory increased by 27.67% and 4.02% respectively. PP enterprise inventory and trader inventory increased by 30.96% and 39.48% respectively [2]. - PE device operating rate decreased by 2.61%, while the downstream weighted operating rate increased by 1.26%. PP device operating rate increased by 0.6%, and the powder operating rate increased by 5.4% [2]. Report 2: Methanol Industry Spot and Futures Daily Report Core Viewpoints - In the methanol market, under the game of supply and demand, prices may continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the stability of overseas device operation, the customs clearance efficiency of sanctioned vessels, and the actual arrival performance, as well as the port destocking rhythm and the implementation effect of overseas gas restriction expectations [4]. Summary by Catalog - **Prices and Price Differences** - On October 17, the closing prices of MA2601 and MA2605 decreased, with declines of - 2.03% and - 1.51% respectively. The MA15 spread increased by 200.00%, and the Taicang basis decreased by - 18.18% [4]. - Spot prices in Inner Mongolia's northern line, Henan Luoyang, and Taicang Port decreased, with declines ranging from - 0.35% to - 1.31% [4]. - **Inventory and Production** - Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 6.33%, while port inventory decreased by - 3.36%, and social inventory decreased by - 1.61% [4]. - The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by - 1.86%, and the overseas exchange and northwest enterprise sales - to - production ratio changed. Downstream, the operating rates of some devices such as acetic acid and MTBE decreased [4]. Report 3: Pure Benzene - Styrene Daily Report Core Viewpoints - The weekly supply - demand of pure benzene is weak, and the price drive is weak in October. The price of styrene is also under pressure in the short term due to the weak supply - demand and oil price expectations [6]. Summary by Catalog - **Upstream Prices and Price Differences** - On October 17, the prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, etc. changed. The price differences between pure benzene - naphtha and ethylene - naphtha also changed [6]. - The spot price of pure benzene in East China decreased by - 0.7%, and the BZ futures 2603 decreased by - 1.4% [6]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Price Differences** - The spot price of styrene in East China decreased by - 1.8%, and EB futures 2511 and 2512 also decreased [6]. - The EB basis (03) increased by 950.0%, and the styrene import profit increased by 114.6% [6]. - **Inventory and Production** - The port inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu decreased by - 1.1% and - 2.7% respectively. The operating rates of some devices in the pure benzene and styrene industry chains changed [6]. Report 4: Polyester Industry Chain Daily Report Core Viewpoints - For PX, the supply - demand is repaired to some extent in the fourth quarter but remains weak overall, with limited short - term drive and mainly low - level fluctuations. PTA also has limited short - term drive and low - level fluctuations. Ethylene glycol is expected to accumulate inventory, and its price is under pressure. Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices also face different supply - demand situations [7]. Summary by Catalog - **Upstream Prices** - On October 17, the prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, etc. changed. The exchange rate remained basically unchanged [7]. - **PX - Related Prices and Price Differences** - CFR China PX price decreased by - 0.4%. PX spot price in RMB decreased by - 1.6%, and PX futures 2511 and 2601 also decreased [7]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Price Differences** - PTA East China spot price decreased by - 0.3%, and TA futures 2601 and 2605 decreased [7]. - PTA basis (01) and TA01 - TA05 spread changed [7]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Price Differences** - MEG East China spot price decreased by - 0.1%, and EG futures 2601 and 2605 decreased [7]. - MEG basis (01) increased by 261.3%, and MEG import profit increased by - 48.5% [7]. - **Inventory and Production** - MEG port inventory increased by 6.7%, and the arrival expectation increased by 27.5%. The operating rates of various devices in the polyester industry chain changed, such as the PTA operating rate increasing by 2.3% [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices are not advisable to be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see for now to test OPEC's export price - support willingness [3]. - For methanol, the peak - season demand has disappointed, and the pattern of high domestic inventory and weak reality remains. However, the port pressure has eased due to the delay in unloading imported goods. Future upward price drivers may come from the expected improvement brought by winter gas restrictions. It's advisable to focus on supply - side disturbances and look for long 1 - short 5 spread opportunities at low prices [6]. - For urea, there is still a lack of effective positive factors in the domestic market, but the price is at a low level with low valuation. It's recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities at low prices [9][11]. - For rubber, the rubber price has stabilized in the short term. It's recommended to set a stop - loss for short - term long positions and enter and exit quickly. Partial positions can be established for the strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [14]. - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and the export expectation is weakening. It's recommended to look for short - position opportunities in the medium term [18]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly, and the price may stop falling temporarily [21]. - For polyethylene, the price may maintain a low - level oscillation in the long term [24]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high, and the cost - side supply surplus pattern suppresses the market [27]. - For PX, currently, there is a lack of driving factors, and it's recommended to wait and see [28]. - For PTA, the supply is increasing slightly, and the demand shows signs of weakness. It's recommended to wait and see [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, and the port is starting to accumulate inventory. It's recommended to look for short - position opportunities [31]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed down 10.60 yuan/barrel, a 2.39% decline, at 432.60 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also declined. The U.S. EIA weekly data showed changes in various oil inventories, such as a 3.52 - million - barrel increase in commercial crude oil inventory [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Despite the disappearance of geopolitical premiums and minimal OPEC production increase, short - term oil prices are not advisable to be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 25 yuan, in Inner Mongolia by 12.5 yuan, and in southern Shandong by 2.5 yuan. The 01 - contract on the futures market decreased by 47 yuan to 2272 yuan/ton, with the basis at par [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Import unloading is delayed, leading to a short - term decline in arrivals and a reduction in port inventory. Domestic supply has slightly decreased, and coal prices are rising, reducing coal - to - methanol profits. Demand remains weak. The peak - season demand has disappointed, but the port pressure has eased. Future upward drivers may come from winter gas restrictions. Focus on supply - side disturbances and long 1 - short 5 spread opportunities at low prices [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in Shandong and Henan remained stable. The 01 - contract on the futures market decreased by 2 yuan to 1602 yuan, with a basis of - 72 [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term malfunctioning devices have increased, and the operating rate has significantly declined. The demand is weak, but the price is at a low level. It's recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities at low prices [9]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price is oscillating and recovering, with RU stabilizing and NR being relatively strong. Typhoon Fengshen may affect rubber - producing areas. There are different views among bulls and bears. As of October 16, 2025, the operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires in domestic enterprises have changed, and some all - steel tire enterprises have issued price - increase notices [10][11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The rubber price has stabilized in the short term. It's recommended to set a stop - loss for short - term long positions and enter and exit quickly. Partial positions can be established for the strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [14]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 6 yuan to 4688 yuan. The spot price in Changzhou increased by 20 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate decreased, and both factory and social inventories decreased [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The comprehensive profit of enterprises has continued to decline, and the supply is strong while demand is weak. The export expectation is weakening. It's recommended to look for short - position opportunities in the medium term [18]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of pure benzene in East China remained unchanged, while the styrene spot price increased and the futures price decreased. The basis strengthened. Supply - side operating rates decreased, and port inventory decreased. Demand - side operating rates increased [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly, and the price may stop falling temporarily [21]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The futures price decreased, and the spot price also decreased. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and production enterprise inventory increased while trader inventory decreased. The downstream operating rate increased slightly [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost - side support for crude oil has weakened. The PE valuation has limited downward space, but the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market. The overall inventory is decreasing from a high level, and demand is gradually picking up. The price may maintain a low - level oscillation in the long term [24]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The futures price decreased, and the spot price also decreased. The upstream operating rate decreased, and inventories at production enterprises, traders, and ports all decreased. The downstream operating rate increased slightly [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost - side supply surplus is expected to expand. The supply pressure is high, and demand is weak. The overall inventory pressure is high, and the cost - side situation suppresses the market [27]. PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 84 yuan. The load of PX decreased, and multiple devices were under maintenance. The load of PTA increased, and imports from South Korea to China increased in early October. Inventory increased in August [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Currently, the PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many short - term maintenance operations. There is a lack of driving factors, and it's recommended to wait and see [28]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 54 yuan. The load of PTA increased, and some devices adjusted their loads. The downstream load decreased slightly, and inventory increased [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand shows signs of weakness. It's recommended to wait and see [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract decreased by 86 yuan. The supply - side load increased, and multiple devices had changes in operation. The downstream load decreased slightly, and port inventory increased [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is high, and the port is starting to accumulate inventory. It's recommended to look for short - position opportunities [31].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the polyester sector, short - term supply and demand drivers are insufficient, the cost center moves down, and the sector continues its weak pattern. In the long - term, it is under pressure due to cost decline, expected supply increase, and weak demand [29]. - For methanol, in the short - term, it shows range - bound fluctuations with price volatility risks. In the long - term, it may rebound if the signals are positive [47][48]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Sector Macro and Crude Oil Information - India may stop buying Russian oil, which could reconfigure global trade flows and tighten supply. The US and Russia will hold a meeting, and the IEA predicts an increase in global oil supply in 2025 and 2026 with weak demand. US economic data release is postponed, and economic activity shows some weakness [5]. - US refined product demand has mixed changes compared to last year. As of October 10, the average daily demand for total refined products is 2066.9 million barrels, down 0.5% from last year [6]. - US crude oil production hits a new high. As of October 10, daily production is 1363.6 million barrels, up 7000 barrels from the previous week and 13.6 million barrels from last year. Commercial crude inventory increases, while gasoline and distillate inventories change differently [7]. Polyester Product Prices and Basis - Prices of polyester products such as polyester bottle chips, short - fibers, and polyester filaments decline week - on - week. Basis values also show various changes [9]. PX Supply - Urumqi Petrochemical's 100 - million - ton device is under maintenance, and domestic PX production and capacity utilization decline slightly. Asian PX load rebounds slightly. Next week, PX supply is expected to decline slightly [12]. PTA Supply - Hengli Petrochemical reduces production, and Yisheng New Materials increases load. This week, PTA supply decreases slightly, and social inventory is reduced. Next week, supply is expected to increase slightly [15]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - This week, domestic ethylene glycol supply decreases slightly. Port inventory accumulates, but next week, the accumulation pace may slow down due to reduced arrivals and increased demand [16]. Polyester End - The average weekly polyester start - up rate is 87.78%, down 0.02 percentage points week - on - week [17]. Polyester Inventory - Short - fiber inventory decreases, while long - filament inventory accumulates significantly [21]. Terminal Demand - Orders increase slightly, the Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom start - up rate is stable, and the peak season is not prominent [25]. Methanol Sector Methanol Price and Basis - Futures and spot prices of methanol change. The basis of MA2601 increases, and downstream product prices also show different trends [31]. Methanol Cost and Profit - This week, coal - based and coke - oven gas - based profits narrow slightly, and natural gas - based losses improve slightly. Olefin profits decline significantly, and traditional downstream profits are squeezed [37]. Methanol Supply - As of October 16, methanol start - up rate is 87.42%, down 2.11 percentage points, and production is 198.36 million tons, down 2.36% from the previous period. This week, more devices are under maintenance than those returning [40]. Methanol Demand - MTO start - up rate remains stable at 94%, and traditional downstream products show mixed performance with most at low levels [43]. Methanol Inventory - As of October 15, port inventory is 149.14 million tons, down 3.36%, and inland inventory is 35.99 million tons, up 6.04%. Port inventory decreases due to unloading issues and MTO support, while inland inventory accumulates [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each specific energy and chemical product, the short - term outlook is mainly "oscillating" [1][3][5][6][8]. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overall, the current energy and chemical market is affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, international policies, and crude oil price trends. Most product prices are expected to show oscillating trends, with some facing downward pressure due to factors like increased supply or geopolitical influences [1][3][5][6][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices declined. WTI November contract closed down $0.81 to $57.46 per barrel, a 1.39% drop; Brent December contract closed down $0.85 to $61.06 per barrel, a 1.37% drop; SC2511 closed at 435.1 yuan per barrel, down 8.1 yuan per barrel, a 1.83% decline. U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 3.5 million barrels to 423.8 million barrels last week, and EIA crude oil production reached a record high of 13.64 million barrels per day. India may reduce Russian oil imports. Overall, oil prices will continue to decline under supply - demand pressure [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.94% to 2,694 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2512 rose 0.03% to 3,159 yuan per ton. Singapore and Fujeirah fuel oil inventories increased. Short - term high - sulfur fundamentals may be slightly stronger than low - sulfur, but under the pressure of Trump's new tariffs on oil prices, the absolute prices of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils will oscillate weakly [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2511 rose 0.55% to 3,250 yuan per ton. This week, domestic asphalt shipments increased, but the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises decreased. There is still some construction rush expectation after the holiday, but previous significant production increases may suppress prices. Under the pressure of Trump's new tariffs on oil prices, asphalt will oscillate weakly in the short term, with a smaller decline than crude oil and fuel oil [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601, EG2601, and PX futures contracts all rose on Thursday. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were differentiated, with an average of about 60%. PTA and EG production capacity increased, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. Polyester chain prices will fluctuate with crude oil prices in the short term, and cost reduction may stimulate polyester factories' restocking demand [3][5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contracts RU2601, NR, and BR all rose. The main rubber - producing areas are in normal tapping season. The basis of the 20 - type rubber strengthened, and the inventory of downstream tire products is high. The price of natural rubber will oscillate [5]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, methanol spot prices showed different trends. The domestic supply has recovered, and overseas Iranian devices have resumed production, but future production increases are limited due to winter gas restrictions. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of going long on methanol and short on polyolefins and the positive spread strategy between months [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Thursday, polyolefin prices showed different trends. The short - term supply will remain high, and the marginal increase in demand in October will gradually decline. With the weakening of crude oil prices, polyolefin prices will be weak [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Thursday, PVC prices in different regions showed oscillating trends. The supply remains high, domestic demand has slowed down, and exports are expected to be weak. The total inventory pressure is large, and PVC prices are expected to oscillate weakly [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on October 16 and 15, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [9]. 3.3 Market News - U.S. President Trump said that Indian Prime Minister Modi promised to stop purchasing Russian crude oil, but India did not comment. Some Indian refiners are preparing to reduce Russian oil imports. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed that last week, U.S. crude oil inventories increased more than expected, and EIA crude oil production reached a record high [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [15][16][17][19][20][22][24][28][29][30]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [31][35][36][39][42][43]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. [45][47][50][53][56][58]. - **4.4 Inter - product Spreads**: It presents the spread charts between different products, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, B - W spreads of crude oil, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [60][65][66][67]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the cash - flow chart of ethylene - based ethylene glycol production and the production profit charts of PP and LLDPE [69][71]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, research areas, and relevant qualifications [75][76][77][78]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is on the 6th floor, Unit 703, No. 729, Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [80].

1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Methanol - The price may continue to fluctuate under the game of supply and demand. Focus on the stability of overseas device operation, the customs - clearance efficiency of sanctioned vessels, and actual arrival performance. Pay attention to the port destocking rhythm and the implementation effect of overseas gas - limiting expectations [1]. Polyolefins (LLDPE & PP) - The inventory pressure after the holiday is still significant. The supply pressure is prominent in the medium - and long - term, and the demand lacks highlights. The upside space of the 01 contract is limited [5]. Caustic Soda - There is demand support in the medium - and long - term, but it is weak in the short term. It was previously recommended to be bearish, and now the short positions can be temporarily closed as the market stabilizes [8]. PVC - The short - term disk may continue to be under pressure. Although the supply pressure has slightly eased and exports have recovered, the demand in the peak season is weak. Pay attention to cost support and downstream demand performance [8]. PX - The supply and demand are expected to be weak in the fourth quarter. It will mainly fluctuate at a low level in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and mainly conduct reverse spreads on the monthly spread [9]. PTA - The short - term drive is limited, and it will mainly fluctuate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see TA, pay attention to the support around 4500, and conduct rolling reverse spreads on TA1 - 5 [9]. Ethylene Glycol - It is expected to accumulate inventory in October, and the supply - demand structure is weak in the far - month. It is recommended to short EG01 on rallies, hold the seller of the out - of - the - money call option EG2601 - C - 4350, and conduct reverse spreads on EG1 - 5 [9]. Short Fibers - The absolute price is still under pressure in the short term, but it is relatively strong compared to raw materials due to low inventory. It is recommended to have the same strategy as PTA for the unilateral position, and widen the processing margin at a low level [9]. Bottle Chips - It is likely to enter the seasonal inventory accumulation channel. PR follows the cost end, and the processing margin improves in the short term. It is recommended to have the same strategy as PTA for the unilateral position, and the main contract processing margin is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [9]. Pure Benzene - The overall supply and demand in October are expected to be loose, and the price drive is weak. BZ2603 follows the fluctuations of styrene and oil prices [10]. Styrene - The supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price is still under pressure in the short term. EB11 should be treated as a short - selling opportunity on rebounds [10]. 3. Summary by Catalog Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2605 prices rose slightly on October 16. The basis and regional spreads changed. The spot prices in some regions decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory increased by 6.33%, the port inventory decreased by 3.36%, and the social inventory decreased by 1.61% [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The domestic upstream operating rate decreased by 1.86%, the overseas upstream operating rate increased by 5.33%. Some downstream operating rates changed, with the MTO device operating rate increasing by 4.63% [1]. Polyolefins (LLDPE & PP) - **Price and Spread**: L2601, PP2601 and other futures prices rose slightly. The basis and price differences between contracts changed [5]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise inventories increased significantly, and the trade - related inventory of PP also increased [5]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate decreased by 2.61%, and the PP device operating rate increased by 0.6% [5]. Caustic Soda and PVC - **Price and Spread**: The prices of caustic soda and PVC futures and spot changed slightly. The export profit of PVC increased [8]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda and PVC operating rates increased, but the external - purchase calcium - carbide PVC profit decreased [8]. - **Demand**: The downstream operating rates of caustic soda and PVC changed, with some decreasing [8]. - **Inventory**: The PVC upstream factory inventory and social inventory increased [8]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices of polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY changed, and the cash flows also changed [9]. - **PX - related Prices and Spreads**: The PX price and related spreads changed, with the PX basis decreasing significantly [9]. - **PTA - related Prices and Spreads**: The PTA price and basis changed, and the processing margin decreased [9]. - **MEG - related Prices and Spreads**: The MEG price and basis changed, and the inventory increased [9]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream products such as crude oil and pure benzene changed, and the spreads also changed [10]. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: The styrene price and related spreads changed, and the cash flow improved [10]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene and styrene port inventories decreased [10]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: The operating rates of pure benzene, styrene, and their downstream industries changed, with some decreasing [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, oil prices are not easy to be overly bearish in the short - term. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. - For methanol, the weak - reality pattern of high domestic inventory and unmet peak - season demand remains. The short - term port pressure eases due to delayed import unloading. Future upward price drivers may come from winter gas restrictions. It's recommended to focus on supply - side disturbances and wait and see [4][6]. - For urea, there is a lack of effective positive factors in the domestic market, but the price is at a low level with low valuation. It's expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, and it's advisable to wait and see [8]. - For rubber, the price is short - term stable. It's recommended to set a stop - loss, buy on dips with a short - term approach, and partially build a hedging position by buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and the export outlook is poor. The fundamental situation is bad. It's advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly, and the price may stop falling temporarily during the seasonal peak season [17]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to South Korea's ethylene clearance policy [21]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the cost - side supply surplus pattern suppresses the market. It's advisable to wait and see [23]. - For PX, the current load is high, and the expected inventory accumulation period continues. The valuation is neutral to low, and it's recommended to wait and see [24]. - For PTA, the supply - side maintenance volume is still high, and the de - stocking pattern continues. The demand - side load is expected to remain high, but the terminal shows signs of weakness. It's recommended to wait and see [27]. - For ethylene glycol, the domestic supply is high, and the port inventory is increasing. It's expected to continue to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter. It's recommended to short - sell on rallies [28]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 0.60 yuan/barrel, or 0.14%, to 443.80 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 25.00 yuan/ton, or 0.94%, to 2694.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 1.00 yuan/ton, or 0.03%, to 3159.00 yuan/ton. In the Fujaiera port, gasoline inventory decreased by 0.01 million barrels to 7.48 million barrels, diesel inventory increased by 0.56 million barrels to 3.01 million barrels, fuel oil inventory increased by 0.78 million barrels to 7.03 million barrels, and total refined oil inventory increased by 1.33 million barrels to 17.52 million barrels [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, and wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 20 yuan, in Inner Mongolia by 12.5 yuan, and remained stable in southern Shandong. The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 21 yuan to 2319 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 22 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 7 to - 6 [3][6]. - **Strategy**: The short - term port pressure eases due to delayed import unloading. The overall supply is slightly decreasing, and the demand is still weak. Focus on supply - side disturbances and wait and see [4][6]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong remained stable, and in Henan it increased by 10 yuan. The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 4 yuan to 1604 yuan, with a basis of - 74 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 2 to - 71 [8]. - **Strategy**: The number of short - term faulty devices increased, and the operating rate decreased significantly. The demand is weak, and the price is at a low level. It's expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, and it's advisable to wait and see [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The bulls believe in factors such as limited rubber production in Southeast Asia, seasonal price increase, and improved demand in China. The bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, seasonal low demand, and possible under - performance of supply benefits [8][9]. - **Strategy**: The price is short - term stable. Set a stop - loss, buy on dips with a short - term approach, and partially build a hedging position by buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 17 yuan to 4694 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4580 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 114 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread was - 312 yuan. The overall operating rate was 82.6%, with the calcium - carbide method at 82.9% and the ethylene method at 81.9%. The downstream operating rate was 47.8%. Factory inventory was 38.4 million tons, and social inventory was 103.6 million tons [13]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and the export outlook is poor. The fundamental situation is bad. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of pure benzene in East China was 5590 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6600 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the active contract was 6600 yuan/ton. The basis was 0 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 139 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 73.61%, and the inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 0.54 million tons to 19.65 million tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 38.81% [16]. - **Strategy**: The port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly, and the price may stop falling temporarily during the seasonal peak season [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6929 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6990 yuan/ton. The basis was 61 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 82.45%. The production enterprise inventory increased by 4.09 million tons to 52.95 million tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.37 million tons to 5.03 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 45% [19]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate at a low level. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to South Korea's ethylene clearance policy [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6618 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6625 yuan/ton. The basis was 7 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 77.27%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 0.27 million tons to 67.87 million tons, the trader inventory decreased by 2.25 million tons to 23.86 million tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.08 million tons to 6.79 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 51.8% [22]. - **Strategy**: Under the background of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the cost - side supply surplus pattern suppresses the market. It's advisable to wait and see [23]. PX - **Market Information**: The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 64 yuan to 6376 yuan. The PX CFR price decreased by 1 US dollar to 786 US dollars. The basis was 53 yuan. The PX load in China was 87.4%, and in Asia was 79.9%. The PTA load was 76.7%. The inventory at the end of August was 391.8 million tons [23]. - **Strategy**: The current load is high, and the expected inventory accumulation period continues. The valuation is neutral to low, and it's recommended to wait and see [24]. PTA - **Market Information**: The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 34 yuan to 4456 yuan. The East China spot price rose 30 yuan to 4355 yuan. The basis was - 85 yuan. The PTA load was 76.7%, and the downstream load was 91.4%. The terminal draw - texturing load decreased to 80%, and the loom load decreased to 68%. The social inventory on October 10 was 216 million tons [24][26]. - **Strategy**: The supply - side maintenance volume is still high, and the de - stocking pattern continues. The demand - side load is expected to remain high, but the terminal shows signs of weakness. It's recommended to wait and see [27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 32 yuan to 4089 yuan. The East China spot price rose 6 yuan to 4120 yuan. The basis was 68 yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 77.2%, with the syngas - based method at 81.9% and the ethylene - based method at 74.5%. The port inventory increased by 3.4 million tons to 54.1 million tons [27]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply is high, and the port inventory is increasing. It's expected to continue to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter. It's recommended to short - sell on rallies [28].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Overseas, the weakness of regional banks and the remarks of multiple Fed officials have led to a decline in the US dollar index and US bond yields, and an increase in risk aversion. Domestically, economic growth has accelerated, and multiple industry stabilization and growth plans have been introduced, increasing policy support and boosting domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies. In terms of assets, the stock index is short - term oscillating strongly, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; treasury bonds are short - term oscillating, and cautious waiting is recommended; among commodity sectors, black is short - term oscillating, and short - term cautious waiting is recommended; non - ferrous metals are short - term adjusted, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, and cautious waiting is recommended; precious metals are short - term strongly oscillating at high levels, and cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the weakness of regional banks and Fed officials' remarks have led to a decline in the US dollar index and US bond yields, and an increase in risk aversion. Domestically, economic growth has accelerated, and policies have increased support, boosting risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies. For assets, the stock index is short - term oscillating strongly, treasury bonds are short - term oscillating, black is short - term oscillating, non - ferrous metals are short - term adjusted, energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, and precious metals are short - term strongly oscillating at high levels [3]. - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors such as coal, banking, insurance, and port shipping, the domestic stock market rose slightly. With the acceleration of domestic economic growth and the increase in policy support, risk appetite has increased. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [4]. - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market continued to rise. With the increase in risk aversion and the expectation of Fed rate cuts, spot gold reached a record high. Short - term, precious metals are strongly running, and the medium - and long - term upward pattern remains unchanged. Short - term, long positions can be held or reduced on rallies; medium - and long - term, buy on dips [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot market was weak on Thursday, but the futures price rebounded slightly. Market expectations have improved due to the approaching Fourth Plenary Session and expectations for the APEC meeting. The real demand has improved marginally, and steel supply may decline stage - by - stage. The steel market is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term [6]. - **Iron Ore**: On Thursday, the spot price of iron ore rebounded slightly, while the futures price declined. Iron production is still high, and steel mills' restocking has ended. With the narrowing of profits, the willingness to cut production may increase. The global iron ore shipment volume has decreased, and the port inventory has increased. A bearish view is recommended for iron ore prices [8]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Thursday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat, and the futures prices rebounded from the bottom. The demand for ferroalloys has decreased due to the decline in steel production. The supply of silicon manganese has decreased, and the Lanzhou charcoal market is stable. The futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to continue to oscillate in a range [9]. - **Glass**: On Thursday, the glass futures contract oscillated weakly in a range. Supply has increased marginally, and there is an expectation of anti - involution, forming a bottom support. Demand has improved marginally during the traditional peak season but is currently slowing down. It is expected to run weakly in a short - term range [10]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: From January to September, Kazakhstan's refined copper production increased by 1.2% year - on - year. Copper social inventory is at a relatively high level. The global copper mine output growth rate is expected to be high in 2026. The US economy has uncertainties, which are potential risk points. In the short - and medium - term, domestic electrolytic copper production is high, demand is facing a test, and de - stocking is less than expected [11]. - **Aluminum**: On Thursday, aluminum prices were strong. Aluminum social inventory decreased significantly, and aluminum rod inventory decreased slightly. The smelting profit is high, supply is rigid, imports are high, and demand is weakening marginally. It is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term [12]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tightening globally. The demand has improved slightly but remains weak. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level, with support from low smelting start - up and peak - season expectations, but the upside is limited by high - price consumption suppression and macro risks [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump's statement about meeting with Putin and the upcoming high - level Sino - US and Russia - US talks have raised expectations of increased Russian oil supply. Western sanctions and Sino - US trade tensions have also affected demand. Crude oil prices are expected to decline [14]. - **Asphalt**: As crude oil prices test support, the probability of asphalt breaking through support has increased. Demand is nearing the end, inventory pressure is increasing, and it is difficult for asphalt to have a strong upward drive [14][15]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: On Thursday, the carbonate lithium futures contract rose. With the approach of the contract change - over, the short - term trend is oscillating strongly [14]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Thursday, the industrial silicon futures contract rose slightly. Production has reached a new high, and the 2511 contract faces the pressure of warehouse receipt digestion. It is expected to oscillate in a range [14]. - **Polysilicon**: On Thursday, the polysilicon futures contract rose. With the approach of the contract change - over, the short - term trend is oscillating strongly due to rumors of storage and capacity regulation [14]. - **PX**: PX is weakly oscillating. Although it gets some demand support from PTA's high - start, it is likely to continue to oscillate weakly following the polyester sector [15]. - **PTA**: After the decline of crude oil prices, polyester is in a low - level oscillation. Downstream demand is weak, supply is high, and inventory is increasing. PTA prices will continue to run weakly [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The sentiment of ethylene glycol is weak. Port inventory is rising, demand is weakening, and supply is increasing. It is expected to continue to be in an oversupply situation in late October [16]. - **PP**: The PP market shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing. New capacity and restarted devices bring supply pressure, and the price is expected to be weak [18]. - **LLDPE**: The supply of LLDPE is increasing, demand recovery is slow, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly [19]. - **Urea**: The urea market is rising slightly. It is currently in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The short - term price is under pressure, and its future trend depends on the implementation of export policies [19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Overnight, the CBOT November soybean contract rose. Strong domestic demand offset trade concerns, and the September soybean crushing volume reached a record high [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The trading volume of soybean meal increased, and the start - up rate returned to normal. However, the oil mill inventory is under pressure, and the fourth - quarter soybean supply may be loose. Without guidance from US soybeans, it may oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian trade dynamics for rapeseed meal [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: With the visit of the Canadian foreign minister, the short - term risk of rapeseed oil has decreased. Soybean oil prices may be relatively weak due to inventory pressure [21]. - **Palm Oil**: Southeast Asian palm oil has entered the production - reduction cycle. In October, Malaysian palm oil production increased, suppressing prices, but exports also increased, providing some support [21]. - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs has increased, leading to a continuous decline in pig prices to a record low. Although there are signs of second - fattening, the quantity is small. With the decrease in temperature and the recovery of consumption, pig prices may stabilize [21][22].