Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Financial Products**: A-share index has stable lower support and high upper breakthrough pressure; short - term treasury bonds may oscillate; precious metals show certain price patterns and trends; the rally of the container shipping index may slow down [2]. - **Industrial Products**: Industrial materials demand and inventory are deteriorating; iron ore, coke, and other black commodities have different price trends and market situations; various energy and chemical products have different supply - demand and price characteristics [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products such as soybeans, hogs, and sugar have their own market trends and influencing factors [2]. - **Special and New Energy Commodities**: Glass market sentiment is pessimistic; rubber prices are affected by news; new energy products like lithium carbonate are in a downward trend [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Index has stable lower support and high upper breakthrough pressure. A - shares open lower and oscillate with trading volume maintaining at the trillion - level. Suggest selling put options on the support level of IF2506 to earn premiums, or going long on September IM contracts on pullbacks and selling call options with an exercise price of 6400 on September contracts for covered strategies [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term treasury bonds may oscillate, waiting for fundamental guidance. The 10 - year treasury bond yield may fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.7%, and the 30 - year treasury bond yield may fluctuate between 1.85% - 1.95%. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on high - frequency economic data and liquidity dynamics [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold forms a "double - top" pattern and oscillates narrowly between 3200 - 3300 US dollars (750 - 770 yuan); silver fluctuates between 32 - 33.5 US dollars (8000 - 8350 yuan). The sold out - of - the - money gold call options can be held; Moody's downgrades the US credit rating, causing declines in the US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets and a slight increase in precious metals [2]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The emotional release is sufficient, and the upward momentum may slow down. Consider 8 - 10, 6 - 10 positive spreads, and wait and see for unilateral operations [2]. Industrial - **Steel**: Industrial materials demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. Iron ore oscillates between 700 - 745. Coke and coking coal prices are in a downward phase. Suggest long - hot - rolled steel and short - coke or short - coking coal strategies [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Different products have different trends. For example, PX continues to have limited upward momentum; PTA oscillates at a high level between 4600 - 5000; short - fiber prices follow raw materials; ethanol's supply - demand structure improves; styrene has short - term oscillation and medium - term bearishness [2]. Agricultural - Different agricultural products have various market situations. For example, US soybeans oscillate, hogs' futures and spot prices oscillate weakly in the short term, and sugar has positive data from Brazil in late April [2]. Special and New Energy - **Special Commodities**: Glass market sentiment is pessimistic, and attention is paid to whether it can break through the 1000 - point level; rubber prices rise slightly due to storage news and can be lightly shorted at the upper end of the 14500 - 15500 range [2]. - **New Energy Commodities**: Lithium carbonate maintains a downward trend, with the main contract referring to 60,000 - 63,000 yuan; polysilicon futures oscillate with near - term strength and long - term weakness [2].

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 研 究 所 晨 会 观 点 精 [Table_Report] 分析师 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 【宏观】海外方面，美国总统表示将在未来两到三周内对许多国家征收新的关税， 美国关税风险重燃；而 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall price index of Linyi Mall remains stable at 103.48 points this week, with 5 categories of goods increasing, 4 remaining stable, and 5 decreasing in price [1] Group 1: Price Increases - The steel category index increased to 101.20 points, up by 0.26 points, driven by rising prices of various steel products due to restored production demand and increased raw material costs [1] - The lighting category index rose to 104.31 points, up by 0.05 points, with outdoor lighting and accessories seeing slight price increases due to higher sales from increased outdoor activities [2] - The building decoration materials category index reached 105.74 points, up by 0.05 points, primarily due to rising prices of decorative materials and increased demand for certain products like dragon bones [3] Group 2: Price Decreases - The grain, oil, and food category index fell to 94.93 points, down by 0.25 points, with prices of various food items decreasing due to high inventory levels and competitive market conditions [4] - The board category index decreased to 98.13 points, down by 0.08 points, as the prices of materials like gypsum board and plywood fell due to lower production costs from declining raw material prices [5] - The automotive parts and accessories category index dropped to 94.33 points, down by 0.06 points, mainly due to decreased prices of automotive parts amid intense competition [6]

分[析Ta师ble_Report] 行 业 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-801 ...

Agricultural Products Market - The national market price of edible agricultural products decreased by 0.7% from the previous week [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables was 4.24 yuan per kilogram, down 3.0%, with significant declines in tomatoes, zucchini, and green beans by 9.7%, 7.2%, and 7.1% respectively [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices saw slight declines, with eggs and white-cut chicken decreasing by 1.7% and 0.3% respectively [1] - Meat wholesale prices slightly decreased, with pork at 20.77 yuan per kilogram, down 0.4%, while lamb and beef also fell by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively [1] - The wholesale prices of aquatic products remained stable overall, with some fish types experiencing minor declines and others seeing slight increases [1] - Grain and oil wholesale prices showed slight fluctuations, with soybean oil down 0.2%, while canola oil and peanut oil increased by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively [1] - The average wholesale price of six types of fruits increased slightly, with grapes, apples, and pears rising by 2.0%, 1.6%, and 1.2% respectively [1] Production Materials Market - The prices of basic chemical raw materials generally decreased, with methanol, sulfuric acid, soda ash, and polypropylene falling by 2.0%, 1.9%, 1.0%, and 0.2% respectively [2] - Wholesale prices of refined oil slightly decreased, with 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0 diesel down by 0.5%, 0.4%, and 0.3% respectively [2] - Prices of non-ferrous metals mainly declined, with aluminum and zinc decreasing by 1.2% and 0.1%, while copper saw a slight increase of 0.3% [2] - Coal prices experienced slight declines, with thermal coal, No. 2 smokeless lump coal, and coking coal priced at 770 yuan, 1177 yuan, and 980 yuan per ton, down by 0.3%, 0.1%, and 0.1% respectively [2] - Steel prices slightly retreated, with rebar, high-speed wire rod, and hot-rolled strip steel priced at 3462 yuan, 3670 yuan, and 3599 yuan per ton, down by 0.3%, 0.2%, and 0.1% respectively [2] - Fertilizer prices remained stable with slight increases, as the price of compound fertilizer remained unchanged while urea rose by 0.1% [2] - Rubber prices saw slight increases, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber rising by 1.2% and 0.2% respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - The narrative of "American exceptionalism" is converging, accelerated by fluctuating U.S. tariff policies and trade imbalances, leading to a shift in global investment focus towards Asia and Europe [3][4]. Group 1: U.S. Economic Context - The core of "American exceptionalism" is tied to the dollar's role as a global reserve currency, which has been challenged by trade deficits and the need to maintain dollar stability [3]. - The phenomenon of "American exceptionalism" is expected to peak in early 2025, with its convergence driven by fiscal and trade imbalances in the U.S. [3]. Group 2: Investment Trends in Asia - The convergence of "American exceptionalism" enhances the investment outlook for Asia, as global investors are expected to recalibrate their focus away from the U.S. towards more stable and undervalued Asian markets [4]. - Since early May, Asian currencies have experienced a collective surge, attributed to a weaker dollar, trade surpluses, and reduced dollar absorption effects [5]. Group 3: Global Asset Allocation Strategies - Investors are advised to enhance portfolio volatility resistance, with expectations that government bonds in the U.S. and Europe may outperform stocks amid economic slowdowns [6]. - Gold is recommended as a risk-hedging asset, with a buying opportunity identified in the range of $3,000 to $3,250 per ounce [7]. - A shift in investment from U.S. equities to European and Chinese stocks is suggested, driven by increased policy support in these regions [7]. Group 4: Investment Focus in China - The Chinese stock market is characterized by an "internal focus," with pricing logic primarily based on domestic economic growth [8]. - The total net profit of all listed companies in China is projected to increase by 3.58% year-on-year, with significant growth in agriculture, steel, and technology sectors [8][9]. - Key investment themes in China include sectors benefiting from domestic consumption policies, import substitution, fiscal stimulus, and infrastructure development [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The substantial progress of the China-US trade talks has boosted the overall global risk appetite, and the domestic risk appetite is also expected to be favorably affected in the short term. For assets, the stock index is expected to rebound with short - term cautious long positions; government bonds are expected to oscillate at a high level with cautious long positions. In the commodity sector, black metals are expected to be weakly oscillating, non - ferrous metals, energy - chemicals, and precious metals are expected to oscillate, and all are under cautious observation [3]. - The demand for steel is expected to be weak, and the prices of steel futures and spot have widened their decline. The prices of ferrous alloys are expected to oscillate within a range. The prices of energy - chemical products have rebounded slightly due to the China - US trade talks, but there are still long - term downward pressures. Non - ferrous metals are expected to oscillate, and the short - term trends are affected by the China - US talks and other factors [6][9][13]. Summary by Directory Macroeconomic and Financial - **Macro**: Overseas, the China - US trade talks ended positively, and details will be announced on Monday. Domestically, China's exports in April exceeded expectations, and the China - US high - level talks in Switzerland achieved substantial progress. The stock index is expected to rebound with short - term cautious long positions; government bonds are expected to oscillate at a high level with cautious long positions. In the commodity sector, black metals are weakly oscillating, non - ferrous metals, energy - chemicals, and precious metals are oscillating, all under cautious observation [3]. - **Stock Index**: Affected by sectors such as semiconductor chips, artificial intelligence, and software development, the domestic stock market declined slightly. The China - US talks and loose monetary policies are expected to boost domestic risk appetite, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market oscillated last week. Economic data shows resilience, and the market is re - pricing the Fed's policy path. Gold may be under short - term pressure but has long - term support. Silver is under short - term observation [4][5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel futures and spot markets were weak last Friday. In May, it enters the off - season for steel demand. The apparent consumption of 5 major steel products decreased, and inventory started to rise. The supply also decreased slightly. Short - term bearish sentiment is recommended [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures and spot prices of iron ore continued to be weak. Steel demand has weakened, and although the iron - water output is still high, it is not supported by demand. The supply is expected to increase in the later period, and short - term bearish sentiment is recommended [6]. - **Ferroalloys (Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron)**: The price of silicon manganese rebounded slightly, and that of silicon iron declined. The demand for ferroalloys is weakening. The short - term price of ferroalloys is expected to oscillate within a range [7][8]. Energy - Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The China - US talks and domestic policy stimuli have improved the macro - sentiment, and oil prices have rebounded. However, the long - term downward path has been established, and the oil price will be under pressure in the later period but will continue to have high volatility in the short term [9]. - **Asphalt**: The absolute price of asphalt has rebounded due to the progress of the trade agreement. The inventory removal has stagnated, the supply is low, and the demand has been slightly boosted. It will continue to fluctuate with crude oil in the short term [9]. - **PX**: PX has many self - maintenance periods and follows the polyester chain to rise. It will continue to be in short supply in the later period and will maintain a relatively strong oscillating pattern in the short term [9]. - **PTA**: The downstream demand for PTA exists in the short term, but there are limitations to its long - term upward space. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply of ethylene glycol is high, and the inventory removal is postponed. It will continue to oscillate [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: The downstream processing profit of short - fiber is decreasing, and there is a risk of a decline in the high - operating rate. It will maintain a high - level range oscillation [10]. - **Methanol**: The inventory of methanol has increased, and the supply pressure is prominent. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and has downward pressure in the long term [11]. - **PP**: The supply pressure of PP has been relieved, but the demand is weak, and the fundamentals are under pressure [11]. - **LLDPE**: The downstream of LLDPE is basically stable, and the supply has increased slightly. It is expected to oscillate weakly before the holiday and requires cautious observation [13]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The China - US talks may boost the market sentiment in the short term. The copper price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and opportunities for short positions can be sought in the medium term [13]. - **Aluminum**: The trade agreement between the US and the UK has a short - term positive impact on the market sentiment. The aluminum price rebound is approaching the end. Short - term long positions should be gradually liquidated, and short - position opportunities can be sought after the situation becomes clear [13]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin is expected to increase, and the demand is about to enter the off - season. The tin price is expected to oscillate in the short term, affected by the China - US talks, the resumption of production in Wa State, and the weakening demand [14].

投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2011]1771号 2025年5月9日 研究所晨会观点精萃 分析师 贾利军 从业资格证号： F0256916 投资咨询证号: Z0000671 电话: 021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号: F03092124 投资咨询证号: Z0018827 电话: 021-80128600-8631 刘慧峰 从业资格证号: F3033924 投资咨询证号: Z0013026 电话: 021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号: F03091165 投资咨询证号: Z0019876 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号: F03089928 投资咨询证号: Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱: wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号: Z0016121 电话：021-80128600-8616 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 宏观金融：美英达成有限贸易协 ...

集运指数 商品期货： 有色金属： 广发早知道-汇总版 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 5 月 9 日星期五 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z001 ...

Agricultural Products Market - The national edible agricultural product market price decreased by 0.7% compared to the previous week [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables was 4.37 yuan per kilogram, down 3.3%, with lettuce, green peppers, and tomatoes decreasing by 7.8%, 7.2%, and 6.0% respectively [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices saw slight declines, with eggs and white-cut chicken decreasing by 1.9% and 0.2% respectively [1] - Fish wholesale prices experienced minor fluctuations, with large hairtail fish decreasing by 1.7%, while carp, grass carp, silver carp, large yellow croaker, and crucian carp saw increases of 0.4%, 0.3%, 0.2%, 0.2%, and 0.1% respectively [1] - Grain and oil wholesale prices showed slight fluctuations, with soybean oil and flour decreasing by 0.3% and 0.2%, while rice and peanut oil remained stable, and rapeseed oil increased by 0.1% [1] - Meat wholesale prices were predominantly rising, with pork priced at 20.86 yuan per kilogram, up 0.2%, and beef increasing by 0.1%, while lamb decreased by 0.3% [1] - The average wholesale price of six types of fruits saw slight increases, with grapes, citrus, and bananas rising by 4.5%, 3.1%, and 1.3% respectively [1] Production Materials Market - The prices of basic chemical raw materials predominantly decreased, with sulfuric acid, methanol, and polypropylene dropping by 3.0%, 0.3%, and 0.3% respectively, while soda ash increased by 0.1% [2] - The wholesale prices of refined oil generally declined, with 0 diesel, 92 gasoline, and 95 gasoline decreasing by 0.5%, 0.5%, and 0.4% respectively [2] - Coal prices showed slight fluctuations, with thermal coal priced at 772 yuan per ton, down 0.5%, while two types of smokeless coal and coking coal increased by 0.3% each, priced at 1178 yuan and 981 yuan per ton respectively [2] - Non-ferrous metal prices remained relatively stable, with zinc and copper decreasing by 0.2% and 0.1%, while aluminum increased by 0.1% [2] - Fertilizer prices saw slight increases, with urea and compound fertilizers both rising by 0.1% [2] - Steel prices were predominantly rising, with high-speed wire, rebar, and ordinary medium plate priced at 3677 yuan, 3472 yuan, and 3790 yuan per ton, increasing by 0.3%, 0.2%, and 0.2% respectively [2] - Rubber prices experienced slight increases, with natural rubber and synthetic rubber rising by 1.6% and 0.6% respectively [2]