1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The polysilicon market price is temporarily stable, but the supply and demand situation is complex. On the supply side, all polysilicon manufacturers are operating at reduced loads, and the expectation of new capacity launch is increasing. Most enterprises are in the stage of losing cash - cost, and production enthusiasm is frustrated. On the demand side, the downstream photovoltaic module production schedule is synchronously reduced to 50 - 55GW, and the demand side shows an obvious marginal weakening trend. The inventory of the polysilicon industry remains high, and it is difficult to reduce inventory, putting serious pressure on the spot price. The macro - economic environment and international trade frictions also suppress overseas demand [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon is 35,625 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,525 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. The main contract position is 70,536 lots, an increase of 41,848 lots. The price difference between the 06 - 07 contracts of polysilicon is 1,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 225 yuan/ton. The price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 27,715 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,305 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 38,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 750 yuan/ton. The average price of polysilicon (cauliflower material) is 30.5 yuan/kg, unchanged. The basis of polysilicon is 850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,050 yuan/ton. The average price of polysilicon (dense material) is 33.5 yuan/kg, unchanged. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.3 US dollars/kg, a decrease of 0.04 US dollars/kg. The average price of polysilicon (re - feeding material) is 34.5 yuan/kg, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon is 7,910 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220 yuan/ton. The export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons. The spot price of industrial silicon is 8,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton. The import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons. The output of industrial silicon is 335,750 tons, an increase of 46,400 tons. The total social inventory of industrial silicon is 599,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 97,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons. The monthly import volume of polysilicon is 2,906 tons, a decrease of 222 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 5.01 US dollars/kg, a decrease of 0.13 US dollars/kg. The monthly average import price of polysilicon in China is 2.19 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.14 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 78,444,000 kilowatts, an increase of 11,443,000 kilowatts. The comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 22.91, a decrease of 0.62. The average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, an increase of 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 95,373,120 pieces, an increase of 24,038,530 pieces. The monthly import volume of photovoltaic modules is 9,846,120 pieces, a decrease of 2,122,260 pieces. The monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.27 US dollars/piece, an increase of 0.01 US dollars/piece [2]. 3.6 Industry News - As of May 19, the mainstream market prices of P - type polysilicon cauliflower material, N - type dense material, N - type re - feeding material, and N - type granular silicon are stable at 32 yuan/kg, 35.5 yuan/kg, 39 yuan/kg, and 37 yuan/kg respectively. From January to April, the social financing increment was 163.4 billion yuan, and the new loans were 100.6 billion yuan. In April, M2 increased by 8% year - on - year [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Financial Products**: A-share index has stable lower support and high upper breakthrough pressure; short - term treasury bonds may oscillate; precious metals show certain price patterns and trends; the rally of the container shipping index may slow down [2]. - **Industrial Products**: Industrial materials demand and inventory are deteriorating; iron ore, coke, and other black commodities have different price trends and market situations; various energy and chemical products have different supply - demand and price characteristics [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products such as soybeans, hogs, and sugar have their own market trends and influencing factors [2]. - **Special and New Energy Commodities**: Glass market sentiment is pessimistic; rubber prices are affected by news; new energy products like lithium carbonate are in a downward trend [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Index has stable lower support and high upper breakthrough pressure. A - shares open lower and oscillate with trading volume maintaining at the trillion - level. Suggest selling put options on the support level of IF2506 to earn premiums, or going long on September IM contracts on pullbacks and selling call options with an exercise price of 6400 on September contracts for covered strategies [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term treasury bonds may oscillate, waiting for fundamental guidance. The 10 - year treasury bond yield may fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.7%, and the 30 - year treasury bond yield may fluctuate between 1.85% - 1.95%. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on high - frequency economic data and liquidity dynamics [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold forms a "double - top" pattern and oscillates narrowly between 3200 - 3300 US dollars (750 - 770 yuan); silver fluctuates between 32 - 33.5 US dollars (8000 - 8350 yuan). The sold out - of - the - money gold call options can be held; Moody's downgrades the US credit rating, causing declines in the US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets and a slight increase in precious metals [2]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The emotional release is sufficient, and the upward momentum may slow down. Consider 8 - 10, 6 - 10 positive spreads, and wait and see for unilateral operations [2]. Industrial - **Steel**: Industrial materials demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. Iron ore oscillates between 700 - 745. Coke and coking coal prices are in a downward phase. Suggest long - hot - rolled steel and short - coke or short - coking coal strategies [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Different products have different trends. For example, PX continues to have limited upward momentum; PTA oscillates at a high level between 4600 - 5000; short - fiber prices follow raw materials; ethanol's supply - demand structure improves; styrene has short - term oscillation and medium - term bearishness [2]. Agricultural - Different agricultural products have various market situations. For example, US soybeans oscillate, hogs' futures and spot prices oscillate weakly in the short term, and sugar has positive data from Brazil in late April [2]. Special and New Energy - **Special Commodities**: Glass market sentiment is pessimistic, and attention is paid to whether it can break through the 1000 - point level; rubber prices rise slightly due to storage news and can be lightly shorted at the upper end of the 14500 - 15500 range [2]. - **New Energy Commodities**: Lithium carbonate maintains a downward trend, with the main contract referring to 60,000 - 63,000 yuan; polysilicon futures oscillate with near - term strength and long - term weakness [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The cost support has weakened due to the decline in raw materials and electricity prices during the wet season in the southwest region. There are no bright spots on the consumer side, and high industry inventories are suppressing prices. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in the southwest and the impact of macro - sentiment [2]. - In the short term, actual spot transactions are extremely rare. Downstream enterprises are mainly consuming inventory. Near - month contracts are still trading based on delivery games, while far - month contracts are trading on weak reality and weak expectations [6]. 3. Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On May 19, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price continued to bottom out. The main contract 2507 opened at 8150 yuan/ton and closed at 8130 yuan/ton, a change of (-155) yuan/ton or (-1.87)% from the previous day's settlement. The position of the main contract 2507 was 155,038 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 66,384 lots, a change of - 49 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon declined. The price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon in East China was 8800 - 9100 (-150) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9600 - 10100 (-150) yuan/ton. The price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon in Xinjiang was 8100 - 8300 (-100) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8100 - 8300 (-100) yuan/ton. Some silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, Shanghai, and the northwest region also continued to decline. The price of 97 silicon also declined [1]. - According to SMM statistics, the quotation of organic silicon DMC was 11300 - 11600 (0) yuan/ton. It is reported that the market trading volume is expected to recover faster in mid - to late May, and the low - level inventory reduction of monomer enterprises has been effective recently. Although the operation of monomer enterprises in North and Southwest China has recovered, those in the Northwest are still in the maintenance period [1]. - **Strategy** - For single - side trading, focus on range operations, and upstream enterprises should sell hedging at high prices. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On May 19, 2025, the main contract 2506 of polysilicon futures fluctuated. It opened at 36,900 yuan/ton and closed at 37,150 yuan/ton, a change of 0.51% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 28,688 (32,702 the previous day) lots, and the trading volume was 72,986 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The quotation of polysilicon re - feedstock was 34.00 - 36.00 (0.00) yuan/kg; dense polysilicon was 33.00 - 35.00 (0.00) yuan/kg; cauliflower - shaped polysilicon was 30.00 - 32.00 (0.00) yuan/kg; granular silicon was 33.00 - 34.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, N - type silicon was 37.00 - 39.00 (-0.75) yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 34.00 - 36.00 (0.00) yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased, while the inventory of silicon wafers increased month - on - month. The latest statistics show that the polysilicon inventory was 25.00 tons, a month - on - month change of - 2.27%, the silicon wafer inventory was 19.44GW, a month - on - month change of 7.22%, the weekly polysilicon output was 21,400.00 tons, with a month - on - month change of 0.00%, and the silicon wafer output was 12.42GW, a month - on - month change of 0.50% [4]. - **Strategy** - For single - side trading, focus on range operations. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7]. Silicon Wafers, Battery Cells, and Components - **Silicon Wafers** - The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.94 (0.00) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.28 (-0.02) yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.08 (-0.02) yuan/piece [6]. - **Battery Cells** - The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon M10 battery cells were about 0.26 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon 210RN battery cells were 0.26 (0.00) yuan/W; and HJT210 half - cell batteries were 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [6]. - **Components** - The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.69 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.69 - 0.70 (0.00) yuan/W [6]. Factors to Watch - Resumption of production in the southwest and changes in the operation in the northwest [2][5]. - Changes in the operation of polysilicon enterprises [5]. - Policy disturbances [5]. - Macro and capital sentiment [2][5]. - Operation of organic silicon enterprises [5]. - Impact of industry self - discipline on upstream and downstream operations [7]. - Impact of futures listing on the spot market [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel: The contradiction in nickel ore provides a bottom - support, while the economics of conversion production may limit the upside valuation [2]. - Stainless steel: The cost bottom space is clear, but there is a lack of substantial driving force for upward movement [2][5]. - Lithium carbonate: The ore price has dropped significantly again, and the weak operation may continue [2][11]. - Industrial silicon: Upstream production is gradually resuming, leading to a supply - demand surplus [2][14]. - Polysilicon: The fundamentals are weak, and there is a downward driving force in the market [2][15]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,950, down 15 from T - 1. The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 123,850, down 210 from T - 1. Other data such as trading volume, import prices, and spreads also showed different changes [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia adjusted the resource tax rates for nickel products; Canada's Ontario province may stop exporting nickel to the US; new nickel - iron projects in Indonesia entered the trial - production stage; a nickel smelter in Indonesia resumed production; the Philippines is discussing a nickel - ore export ban [5][6][8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2507 contract was 61,180, down 620 from T - 1. The closing price of the 2509 contract was 62,580, also down 620 from T - 1. Other data including trading volume, open interest, and prices of related products in the industrial chain all showed declines [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased. A wildfire in Canada threatened the Tanco lithium mine [11][13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The Si2507 closing price was 8,130, down 190 from T. The PS2506 closing price was 37,150, down 1,300 from T - 1. Data on trading volume, open interest, spreads, and prices of related products in the industrial chain showed various trends [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US launched anti - dumping and anti - subsidy investigations on imported metal silicon from several countries [15][17]. Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; stainless - steel trend intensity: 0 [10]. - Lithium carbonate trend intensity: - 1 [13]. - Industrial silicon trend intensity: - 2; polysilicon trend intensity: - 1 [17].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The silicon market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventory pressure. The industrial silicon market is expected to maintain a weak trend in the short - term, and the polysilicon price volatility will intensify [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price Changes - On May 20, 2025, the average price of industrial silicon non - oxygenated 553 (East China) dropped 1.67% to 8,850 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) dropped 1.50% to 9,850 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closing price dropped 0.18% to 8,130 yuan/ton. N - type polysilicon material dropped 1.33% to 37 yuan/kg, while the futures main contract closing price rose 0.81% to 37,150 yuan/ton [1]. Industry News - Imported sand high - price decreased to 110,000 yuan/ton, down 5,000 yuan/ton from last week's high, and is expected to decline further. On May 8, the 350 - ton high - dispersion ultra - fine silver powder production line of Dongfang Jingcai was put into operation, which will fill the gap in domestic high - end silver powder production [1]. Fundamental Analysis of Industrial Silicon - In April, due to production cuts in Xinjiang, industrial silicon production decreased to about 300,000 tons. In May, production is expected to increase slightly due to the resumption of production in Southwest China and new capacity ramping up, but the increase will be limited. Demand from polysilicon, organic silicon, and silicon - aluminum alloy industries is weak, and the overall demand for industrial silicon is expected to decline [1]. Investment Strategy for Industrial Silicon - The silicon market has strong supply and weak demand with high inventory. It is expected to maintain a weak trend in the short - term, with an operating range of 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short on rebounds [1]. Fundamental Analysis of Polysilicon - Polysilicon enterprises maintain production cuts, and the resumption may be postponed. The photovoltaic market is weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers, silicon materials, and falling prices of silicon wafers, cells, and components [1]. Investment Strategy for Polysilicon - Recently, the polysilicon price rebounded due to delivery factors and supply - side reform news, but then fell again. In the short - term, the weak fundamentals conflict with delivery factors, causing intensified price fluctuations. It is necessary to continue to monitor the evolution of "high positions and low warehouse receipts" [1].

多晶硅日报 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 日期 2025 年 05 月 20 日 一、行情回顾与展望 市场表现：多晶硅 06 合约价格下跌动能有所衰减。PS2506 收盘价 37150 元/吨, 涨幅 0.51%，成交量 7.30 万手，持仓量 28688 手，净减 4041 手。 后市展望：终端抢装结束，政策真空期，现货价格弱势限制反弹空间。供应端，5 月第 3 周周度产量保持在 2.3 万吨，预期月度产量为 10 万吨左右，前期我们提到 供需平衡需要装置更大幅度减产，此外还需注意丰水季或有增产预期。弱现实主 要体现在下游光伏终端"抢装"逐渐进入尾声，需求环比降明显下降，此外多晶 硅（28 万吨）、硅片和电池片均连续 6 周累库。总体来看，交割逻辑驱动减弱， 弱现实限制反弹空间，集中减产等消息面较难提振远月预期，短线价格进入震荡 期，上方 3.8-4.0 仍然是多空关键的博弈区间。 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunch ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polysilicon market price is temporarily stable, but the supply side has all manufacturers operating at reduced loads, and the expectation of new capacity launch is increasing. Most enterprises are in the stage of losing cash - cost, and production enthusiasm is frustrated. If prices remain low, more enterprises may cut production; if market expectations improve, some enterprises may resume production. The demand side shows a significant marginal weakening trend, with downstream photovoltaic component production schedules being synchronously adjusted down. The terminal market has strong wait - and - see sentiment, and polysilicon inventory remains high, making it difficult to destock and putting severe pressure on spot prices. Overseas photovoltaic market demand also has uncertainties. The operation suggestion is to short - term layout long positions and go short on highs in the medium - to - long - term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for polysilicon is 37,150 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 300 yuan/ton; the main contract position is 28,688 lots, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 4,014 lots. The price difference between the 06 - 07 contracts is 875 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 155 yuan/ton; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 29,020 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 315 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 38,750 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 1,750 yuan/ton. The average price of polysilicon (cauliflower material) is 30.5 yuan/kg, with no change; the average price of polysilicon (compact material) is 33.5 yuan/kg, with no change; the average price of polysilicon (re - feeding material) is 34.5 yuan/kg, with no change. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.3 US dollars/kg, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 0.04 US dollars/kg. The basis of polysilicon is 1,900 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 680 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract for industrial silicon is 8,130 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,100 yuan/ton, with no change. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 335,750 tons, with a ring - to - ring increase of 46,400 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 599,000 tons, with a ring - to - ring increase of 3,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 97,000 tons, with a ring - to - ring increase of 7,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,906 tons, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 222 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 5.13 US dollars/kg, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 0.14 US dollars/kg; the monthly average import price of polysilicon is 2,190 US dollars/ton, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 140 US dollars/ton [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 78,444,000 kilowatts, with a ring - to - ring increase of 11,443,000 kilowatts. The average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, with a ring - to - ring increase of 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 95,373,120 units, with a ring - to - ring increase of 24,038,530 units; the monthly import volume is 9,846,120 units, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 2,122,260 units. The monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.27 US dollars/unit, with a ring - to - ring increase of 0.01 US dollars/unit. The weekly comprehensive price index (SPI) of the photovoltaic industry for polysilicon is 22.91, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 0.62 [2] 3.6 Industry News - As of May 16th, the mainstream market price of P - type polysilicon cauliflower material is 32 yuan/kg, N - type compact material is 35.5 yuan/kg, N - type re - feeding material is 39 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon is 37 yuan/kg, all with stable market prices. From January to April, the social financing increment was 16.34 trillion yuan, and the new loans were 10.06 trillion yuan. In April, M2 increased by 8% year - on - year [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views of the Report - The short - term view of stock index futures is range - bound with the CSI 300 Index showing relative resilience, and the medium - term view is bullish. For bond futures, the short - term view is a volatile rebound, and the medium - term view is bullish. For copper, the short - term view is a 77000 - 78700 range fluctuation, and the medium - term view is a 66000 - 90000 range fluctuation. Industrial silicon is expected to run weakly in the short - term and be under pressure in the medium - term. Polysilicon is expected to run weakly in the short - term and at a low level in the medium - term. Lithium carbonate is expected to continue to decline in the short - term and experience a steady price drop with weakening cost support in the medium - term [1][2][4][6][10][12] Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM - **Intraday View**: Range - bound, with the CSI 300 Index showing relative resilience - **Medium - term View**: Bullish - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in IF2506 and a hedging portfolio of long IF206 and short IM2506 - **Core Logic**: Sino - US tariff relaxation boosts short - term risk appetite, but trade negotiation uncertainties remain. Policy support for the capital market encourages medium - and low - risk - preference funds to increase allocations in weighted sectors such as the CSI 300 or dividend assets [1] Bond Futures - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL - **Intraday View**: Volatile rebound - **Medium - term View**: Bullish - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in T2509 or TL2509 - **Core Logic**: Weak domestic demand in April's inflation and financial data may lead to further monetary policy easing. After the reserve requirement ratio cut, short - term liquidity tightened [2][3] Commodity Futures and Options Metal and New Energy Materials Sector - Copper - **Intraday View**: Fluctuate within the 77000 - 78700 range - **Medium - term View**: Fluctuate within the 66000 - 90000 range - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a range - trading approach - **Core Logic**: US restrictions on chip exports may drag down the US stock market. Kazakhstan's refined copper production declined in 2025. China's copper exports increased, but domestic copper demand in some sectors is expected to decline. Copper inventories show a mixed trend. Tariff trade wars and domestic supply - demand changes will affect copper prices [4][5] Industrial Silicon - **Intraday View**: Run weakly within the 8100 - 8300 range - **Medium - term View**: Be under pressure within the 7900 - 9000 range - **Reference Strategy**: Sell SI2506 - C - 11000 until expiration and short the futures - **Core Logic**: In April 2025, production declined, but demand declined more, and the inventory is at a high level, leading to a continued supply - surplus situation [6][8][9] Polysilicon - **Intraday View**: Run weakly within the 36500 - 37000 range - **Medium - term View**: Run at a low level within the 35000 - 40000 range - **Reference Strategy**: Sell PS2506 - C - 47000 - **Core Logic**: In April 2025, production and demand both declined, and the inventory is at a high level, indicating a significant supply surplus [10][11] Lithium Carbonate - **Intraday View**: Continue to decline within the 60000 - 63000 range - **Medium - term View**: Experience a steady price drop with weakening cost support within the 59000 - 65000 range - **Reference Strategy**: Sell LC2507 - C - 83000 - **Core Logic**: The spot price is continuously falling. In April 2025, production increased, and the total inventory is at a high level, which is negative for the price [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide overall industry - wide investment ratings. However, it gives individual commodity trend intensities, which can be used as a reference for investment judgment. For example, the trend intensity of gold and silver is - 1, indicating a bearish view; copper has a trend intensity of 0, suggesting a neutral stance [2][9][13]. 2. Core Views of the Report - Each commodity has its own market situation and price trend. Generally, factors such as supply - demand relationship, macro - news, and cost changes affect commodity prices. For example, the cost curve of lithium carbonate is moving down, and its trend may remain weak; copper lacks driving forces and its price is in a volatile state [2][11][33]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: It broke below the support level, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot showed different degrees of change. For example, the daily increase of Shanghai Gold 2506 was 1.65%, and the overnight decline was - 0.38% [2][6][9]. - **Silver**: It oscillated and declined, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of silver futures and spot also fluctuated. For instance, the daily increase of Shanghai Silver 2506 was 1.13%, and the overnight decline was - 0.15% [2][6][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: It lacked driving forces and the price was in a volatile state, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of domestic and international copper futures and spot changed, and there were also news about copper mines' production and cooperation [11][13]. - **Aluminum**: It was in a range - bound oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of aluminum futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, showed certain changes. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased by 55 compared with the previous day [14][16]. - **Alumina**: It rebounded significantly, with a trend intensity of 0. The trading volume and price of alumina futures increased, and there were changes in export data [14][16]. - **Zinc**: There was a surplus in the long - term, and the price was under pressure, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of zinc futures and spot, as well as inventory and other data, changed [17][18]. - **Lead**: There was a weak supply - demand situation, and it was in an oscillating state, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of lead futures and spot, as well as inventory and other data, changed [20][21]. - **Tin**: It was in a narrow - range oscillation, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of tin futures and spot, as well as inventory and other data, changed [23][25]. - **Nickel**: The contradiction in nickel ore provided a bottom - support, and the conversion economy might limit the upside valuation, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of nickel futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [27][32]. - **Stainless Steel**: The cost bottom space was clear, but there was a lack of substantial driving forces for upward movement, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of stainless - steel futures and spot changed [27][32]. Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: The cost curve continued to move down, and the trend might remain weak, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of lithium - carbonate futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [33][35]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It was in a weak pattern, and attention should be paid to upstream supply changes, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of industrial - silicon futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [36][38]. - **Polysilicon**: The demand declined, and the market also maintained a downward trend, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of polysilicon futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [36][38]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The raw materials continued to decline, and they were in a weak - oscillating state, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [39][41]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: They were in a wide - range oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [42][44]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: With the decline of hot metal, they were in a wide - range oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of coke and coking - coal futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [46][47][50]. - **Steam Coal**: The coal - mine inventory increased, and it was in a weak - oscillating state, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of steam - coal futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [51][53]. - **Para - Xylene**: It was in a single - sided oscillating market, with a trend intensity of 1. The prices of para - xylene futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [55][56][59]. - **PTA**: The strategy was to go long on PX and short on PTA, with a trend intensity of 1. The prices of PTA futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [56][59][60]. - **MEG**: It was still strong on a single - sided basis, with a trend intensity of 1. The prices of MEG futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [55][59][61]. - **Rubber**: It was in a weak - oscillating state, with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of rubber futures and spot, as well as related costs and inventories, changed [2][63][65]. Agricultural Products - The report also briefly mentions some agricultural products such as palm oil, soybean oil, etc., but does not provide detailed analysis. For example, palm oil is under pressure and looking for support at the bottom, and soybean oil has increased short - term risks due to the fluctuation of US biodiesel policy [4].

现货价格及基差 品种 5月16日 5月15日 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 14950 15000 -50 -0.33% 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) 45 -90 135 150.00% 元/吨 泰标混合胶报价 14600 14800 -200 -1.35% 非标价差 -305 -290 -15 -5.17% 品种 5月16日 5月15日 涨跌幅 单位 涨跌 杯胶：国际市场：FOB中间价 54.20 54.15 0.05 0.09% 泰铢/公斤 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 62.25 61.75 0.50 0.81% 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 13500 13300 200 1.50% 天然橡胶：胶水：西双版纳州 13700 0.73% 13800 100 元/吨 原料：市场主流价：海南 13500 13500 0 0.00% 外胶原料：市场主流价：海南 9000 9000 0.00 0.00% 月间价差 合约 5月16日 5月15日 涨跌幅 单位 涨跌 9-1价差 -835 -820 -15 -1.83% 1-5价差 -170 1050 -1220 -116.19% 元/吨 ...