Report Industry Investment Rating - Goldman Sachs adjusted the stock rating for the next three months to tactical neutral and overweighted cash [1] Core Viewpoints - The global economy is facing multiple challenges including geopolitical conflicts, oil price fluctuations, and potential financial crises. The US's policy adjustments and the Fed's monetary policy changes have significant impacts on various asset classes [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Global Economy and Finance - Trump's statement caused the oil price to drop from nearly $120 to $85, reflecting the White House's anxiety about high - oil prices' impact on inflation and election prospects [1] - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that in case of an attack, it will not allow "enemies and their allies" to export oil from the region [1] - Deutsche Bank warned that the oil - price trend is "strikingly similar" to the 1970s oil crisis, but current inflation expectations are stable and the economy is more resilient [1] - Goldman Sachs pointed out that if the oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz remains low in March, oil prices may exceed the peaks in 2008 and 2022 [1] - The risk of an energy shock similar to that in the 1970s is increasing due to the Middle - East conflict, which may put pressure on risk - preference and related assets [1] - The US Congress passed the War Powers Act in 1973, which regulates the military action time limit [1] - When the oil price breaks through $100, fund managers are re - allocating their portfolios to anti - inflation sectors, and options hedging is becoming more popular [1] - The sharp decline in oil prices cannot be solved by the US president's words. Iran's stance on oil export restrictions may further affect the oil market [2][3] - The private - credit crisis triggered by BlackRock's redemption limit has put pressure on the insurance industry, and there are concerns about a 2008 - style systemic risk [2] - Hedge funds have been net - selling US stocks at the fastest pace since March last year [2] - JPMorgan Chase CEO warned of a potential default wave due to the reversal of the credit cycle [2] - Bridgewater Associates' founder warned of a "capital war" due to geopolitical tensions and market volatility [2] - The expected policy of Fed nominee Wash will have a negative impact on global equity and commodity assets [2] - Nomura expects the Fed's uncertainty to peak from July to November 2026, which may lead to a "flight from US assets" [2] - The Fed's Beige Book shows a K - shaped consumption pattern among US consumers [2] - The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine will have a profound impact on major asset classes [3] - Wash's combination of interest - rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction indicates a major shift in Fed's monetary policy, which will lead to a liquidity - contraction expectation for equity assets [3] - The NASDAQ futures have broken through support levels, and AI substitution and the Middle - East situation may trigger a new round of large - scale selling of US stocks [3] - The global economy has passed its peak in late 2025 and is on a downward trend due to the US's wrong policies [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are all showing a trend of fluctuating and strengthening, mainly affected by factors such as production, export policies, biodiesel policies, and geopolitical situations [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - **Palm oil**: It is running strongly. Malaysian palm oil is in a seasonal production reduction period, with production and exports decreasing in February, and inventory is expected to decline. Indonesian palm oil exports increased significantly in January, and Malaysia's palm oil exports may improve in March. Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the price of crude oil is strong, which drives up the price of palm oil. In China, inventory is high and demand is weak [4] - **Soybean oil**: It is fluctuating and strengthening. Brazil's soybean harvest is expected to be bumper, but the harvest is slowing down due to weather. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has submitted a new biofuel blending volume authorization proposal, which may be finalized by the end of March, and the biodiesel policy has optimistic expectations, supporting the demand outlook for U.S. soybean oil. Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the price of crude oil has risen significantly, driving up the price of U.S. soybean oil. The increase in the price of U.S. soybeans provides cost support. The operation rate of domestic oil mills is gradually recovering, and inventory has increased slightly [4] - **Rapeseed oil**: It is fluctuating and strengthening. China has imposed a 5.9% anti-dumping duty on Canadian rapeseed, and the comprehensive tax rate is 14.9%. The supply of Canadian rapeseed will resume. China has purchased 10 ships of Canadian rapeseed, a total of 650,000 tons, which are expected to arrive at ports from February to April, alleviating the tight supply situation of rapeseed. The supply of rapeseed oil will increase. Rapeseed oil inventory has increased month-on-month but is still at a low level. Affected by the price of crude oil in geopolitical conflicts, the price of rapeseed oil has risen [4] 2. Fundamental Observation Supply - **Palm oil**: As of February 27, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 786,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 80,300 tons, an increase of 11.37%. The import volume in December was 280,000 tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous month [7][21] - **Soybean oil**: As of February 27, the national key area's soybean oil commercial inventory was 913,300 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 31,600 tons, a decrease of 3.34%. The soybean port inventory increased to 6.3 million tons, and the oil mill's soybean crushing volume was 588,600 tons, with an operation rate of 16.19%. The operation rate of oil mills was still at a low level, and the soybean oil production was 111,800 tons, a month-on-month increase of 104,800 tons [7][9] - **Rapeseed oil**: As of February 27, the rapeseed oil production of coastal oil mills was 4,900 tons, and the rapeseed oil inventory was 270,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 23,500 tons, an increase of 9.51%, and it was still at a low level year-on-year [7][9] Cost and Profit - As of March 5, the CIF price of Malaysian palm oil was $1,112 per ton, and the import cost was 9,177 yuan per ton, a month-on-month increase of 164 yuan per ton [8] Demand - **Palm oil**: As of March 5, the total trading volume of 24-degree palm oil in national key oil mills this week was 3,700 tons, and the demand was weak [9] - **Soybean oil**: As of March 5, the weekly trading volume of domestic soybean oil was 62,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4,200 tons [9] - **Rapeseed oil**: As of February 27, the pick-up volume of rapeseed oil in coastal oil mills was 169 tons, a slight increase [9] 3. Malaysian Palm Oil Situation Production - In January, Malaysian palm oil was in a seasonal production reduction period. The MPOB report showed that the production in January decreased by 1.5775 million tons month-on-month, a decrease of 13.78%. Although the decrease was large, the production was still at a high level year-on-year. In February, due to fewer working days, the production is expected to continue to decline. The MPOA data showed that the estimated production in February decreased by 16.24% [15] Inventory - In January, the inventory dropped to 2.8155 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7.72%. The inventory reduction amplitude was higher than market expectations, but the inventory was still at a high level year-on-year and still faced pressure [15] Export - In January, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil was 1.4843 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 11.44%. In February, the export volume decreased. ITS data showed that the export volume in February decreased by 21.5% compared with January, and AmSpec data showed a decrease of 25.5% [18] Consumption - The domestic consumption volume in Malaysia was 361,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 14.52% [19] 4. Domestic Palm Oil Situation - **Inventory**: As of February 27, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 786,700 tons, and the inventory was high [21] - **Import Profit**: As of March 5, the import profit of 24-degree palm oil was -199 yuan per ton, a month-on-month increase of 84 yuan per ton [28] - **Trading Volume**: As of March 5, the trading volume of palm oil was 3,700 tons, and the trading volume was at a low level [24] 5. Domestic Soybean Oil Situation - **Inventory**: As of February 27, the soybean oil inventory of 90 sample enterprises was 913,300 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 31,600 tons [32] - **Production**: As of February 27, the soybean oil production was 111,800 tons, and it was at a low level [32] - **Operation Rate**: As of February 27, the operation rate of oil mills gradually recovered, and the operation rate was 16.19% [32] 6. Domestic Rapeseed Oil Situation - **Inventory**: As of February 27, the small-sample rapeseed oil inventory was 270,500 tons, and the inventory was accumulating [36] - **Production**: As of February 27, the rapeseed oil production of coastal oil mills was 4,900 tons, and it was at a low level [36] 7. Spot Price - As of March 5, the spot price of Zhangjiagang's fourth-grade soybean oil was 8,650 yuan per ton, a month-on-month increase of 20 yuan per ton; the spot price of Guangdong's 24-degree palm oil increased by 220 yuan per ton; the spot price of Nantong's fourth-grade rapeseed oil was 10,110 yuan per ton, a month-on-month increase of 290 yuan per ton [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April, with no further production increase plan determined yet and possible future adjustments. This is mainly to cope with the expected significant decline in Iran's crude oil exports after the attack [1]. - The EIA data shows that the increase in U.S. crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, the decline in refined oil inventories was small, and the overall oil inventories continued to increase [1][3]. - The continuous conflicts among the U.S., Israel, and Iran have led to a sharp decline in Iranian oil production and exports, and the closure of some oil - related facilities in the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz has almost stopped shipping for many days, causing production cuts in Middle Eastern oil - producing countries [1]. - Overseas crude oil prices once rose close to $120 per barrel, but then fell sharply as G7 countries discussed releasing strategic oil reserves and Trump said he would temporarily lift some oil - related sanctions [1]. - The Middle East situation has caused huge fluctuations in crude oil prices. It is recommended to watch carefully and pay attention to the progress of the Middle East situation and the export of Middle Eastern crude oil [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情分析 - OPEC+ will increase production in April to deal with the decline in Iranian exports. The next meeting will be held on April 5 [1]. - The U.S., Israel, and Iran are in conflict. Iran's oil production and exports are large, and the Strait of Hormuz is a key shipping route. Many oil - related facilities in the Middle East have been attacked and shut down [1]. - Overseas crude oil prices first rose and then fell due to the discussion of releasing strategic oil reserves and the statement of lifting sanctions [1]. 3.2期现行情 - The main crude oil futures contract 2604 fell 10.76% to 666.3 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 625.0 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 818.0 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 4,679 to 31,422 lots [2]. 3.3基本面跟踪 - The EIA monthly report raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by $0.79 per barrel to $52.21 per barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand from 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production from 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day [3]. - The IEA raised the 2026 global oil demand growth rate by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day and raised the 2026 global oil production growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day [3]. - The U.S. EIA data on March 4 showed that the U.S. crude oil inventory increased by 3.475 million barrels in the week ending February 27, exceeding expectations, and the overall oil inventories continued to increase [1][3]. 3.4 Supply - side - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that OPEC+'s average crude oil production in January was 42.448 million barrels per day, a decrease of 439,000 barrels per day compared to December, mainly due to supply disruptions in Kazakhstan, Venezuela, and Iran [4]. - U.S. crude oil production decreased by 6,000 barrels per day to 13.696 million barrels per day in the week of February 27, and it is near the historical high [4]. - The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products decreased to 21.02 million barrels per day, an increase of 3.55% compared to the same period last year, and the increase amplitude decreased [4]. - The weekly production of gasoline and diesel decreased, driving the weekly supply of U.S. crude oil products to continue to decrease by 7.40% [4].

Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - As of March 4, 2026, the total inventory of methanol ports in China was 1.4435 million tons, a decrease of 3,200 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China increased by 24,200 tons, while that in South China decreased by 27,400 tons [1]. - This week, the methanol port inventory remained basically stable, with accumulation in East China and destocking in South China. During the period, 2.003 million tons of visible foreign vessels were included, and提货 gradually recovered compared to the Spring Festival period [1]. - In Jiangsu, there was concentrated unloading of foreign vessels, leading to an increase in supply and inventory accumulation. In Zhejiang, some foreign vessels being unloaded were not yet included, and the inventory slightly decreased under the background of rigid demand [1]. - This week, the inventory in South China ports showed destocking. In Guangdong, there was a small amount of imported and domestic trade cargo replenishment, and the downstream gradually recovered, driving the stable提货 volume in the mainstream storage areas, resulting in destocking. In Fujian, only a small amount of domestic trade cargo arrived at the port, and the downstream had rigid demand consumption, with little inventory fluctuation [1]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Analysis - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that all parties have the responsibility to ensure the stable and smooth supply of energy [2]. - Market news indicated that Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, and Kuwait would cut production by up to 6.7 million barrels per day in total [2]. - Satellite images showed that Iran was still loading crude oil at its oil terminals and transporting a large amount of oil through the Strait of Hormuz [2]. - Trump said that the soaring oil price was an "expected setback" and predicted that the short - term oil price would drop rapidly after the Iranian nuclear threat was eliminated [2]. - Russian President Putin said that the oil production related to the Strait of Hormuz might completely stagnate as early as next month, and the current high commodity prices were temporary. The oil terminal in Novorossiysk, Russia, resumed loading [2]. - Trump said that the increase in oil price was lower than his expectation, and he would temporarily lift some oil - related sanctions to reduce the oil price. If Iran blocked the oil flow in the Strait of Hormuz, it would be hit twenty times more severely than currently [2]. - The spokesperson of the European Commission said that the EU institutions related to oil and gas supply would hold a meeting on the Middle East situation on Thursday [2]. - The G7 finance ministers' meeting reached a consensus not to release the oil strategic reserve for the time being, but they were "ready at any time" to release it if necessary [2]. Group 3: Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The G7 did not release the oil reserve, but the US and Europe had corresponding measures for the oil price, including relaxing oil sanctions and forming an escort fleet. The US crude oil and Brent crude oil significantly declined, and domestic commodities also fell. The short - term volatility increased, and attention should be paid to controlling risks. The current situation between the US and Iran and the crude oil trend should be closely monitored [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a volatile rebound. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 0.80%, the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 7.11%, the main contract of platinum closed up 4.26%, and the main contract of palladium closed up 4.02% [1]. - In the short - term, in terms of risk - aversion, the risk of the trade war has eased, and the risk of geopolitical fluctuations in the Middle East may become normalized. The US employment is weakening while inflation pressure still exists, the expectation of interest rate cuts is at a low level, and the US dollar index is strong [1]. - In terms of the risk - aversion attribute, the air strikes by the US and Israel on Iran and Iran's retaliatory actions have triggered a global chain reaction. The world is facing rising energy costs and the threat of stagflation, and the market is worried that the Middle East conflict may be long - term [1]. - In terms of the monetary attribute, the US employment unexpectedly decreased in February and the unemployment rate rose. The co - existence of weak employment and high inflation has put the Fed in a dilemma. The Fed's January meeting minutes showed that there are huge differences among decision - makers on the future direction of interest rates. In addition to the interest - rate - cut supporters and the wait - and - see group, the minutes for the first time clearly mentioned the discussion of the possibility of interest rate hikes. Currently, the market expects that the Fed's interest rate cuts are approaching the end, and the next interest rate cut may be in July. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields have fallen under pressure [1]. - In terms of the commodity attribute, the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East has increased the global recession risk, suppressing the industrial demand prospects of other commodities. Silver is supported by tight supply; the demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong; the short - term demand for palladium still has resilience, but it faces long - term structural pressure from the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1]. - It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and strong in the short term, oscillate at a low level in the medium term, and maintain a long - term upward trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Strategy**: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see. For aggressive investors, it is recommended to sell high and buy low. It is advisable to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Price Data**: The closing price of the Comex gold active contract is $5181.30 per ounce, up 1.73% from the previous day and down 2.17% from the previous week; the London gold price is $5127.55 per ounce, up 0.46% from the previous day and down 1.81% from the previous week; the closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 1140 yuan per gram, down 0.07% from the previous day and down 4.78% from the previous week; the closing price of gold T + D is 1139.96 yuan per gram, up 0.13% from the previous day and down 4.96% from the previous week [2]. - **Other Data**: The net long position of the top 10 futures companies in the Shanghai Gold Exchange shows that the total net long position of the top 10 is 93,020, an increase of 5,115, with a daily ratio of 31.26%; the total net short position of the top 10 is 9,388, a decrease of 218, with a daily ratio of 3.15% [2][3]. Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors should sell high and buy low. Manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. - **Price Data**: The closing price of the Comex silver active contract is $87.35 per ounce, up 3.13% from the previous day and down 2.53% from the previous week; the London silver price is $83.45 per ounce, up 1.34% from the previous day and down 11.81% from the previous week; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 22,758 yuan per kilogram, up 5.62% from the previous day and up 5.14% from the previous week; the closing price of silver T + D is 22,290 yuan per kilogram, up 4.70% from the previous day and up 4.03% from the previous week [4]. - **Other Data**: The net long position of the top 10 futures companies in the Shanghai Silver Exchange shows that the total net long position of the top 10 is 91,191, a decrease of 483, with a daily ratio of 18.53%; the total net short position of the top 10 is 108,137, a decrease of 2,122, with a daily ratio of 21.98% [4][5]. Platinum - **Strategy**: Conservative investors wait and see, aggressive investors sell high and buy low. Manage positions and set stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - **Price Data**: The closing price of the NYMEX platinum active contract is $2178.60 per ounce, up 0.60% from the previous day and up 7.74% from the previous week; the London platinum price is $2138 per ounce, down 0.33% from the previous day and up 7.17% from the previous week; the closing price of the platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 551.85 yuan per gram, up 5.36% from the previous day and up 1.25% from the previous week; the closing price of platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 545.09 yuan per gram, up 3.82% from the previous day and up 0.20% from the previous week [6]. Palladium - **Strategy**: Conservative investors wait and see, aggressive investors sell high and buy low. Manage positions and set stop - loss and take - profit levels [7]. - **Price Data**: The closing price of the NYMEX palladium active contract is $1809.50 per ounce, up 2.15% from the previous day and up 5.85% from the previous week; the London palladium price is $1727 per ounce, up 3.71% from the previous day and up 3.91% from the previous week; the closing price of the palladium main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 438.45 yuan per gram, up 5.19% from the previous day and up 0.07% from the previous week [7]. Precious Metals Fundamental Key Data - **US Economic Indicators**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 3.75%, the discount rate is 3.75%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.65%, the Fed's total assets are $6679.427 billion, M2 year - on - year growth is 4.29%, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.44, the US dollar index is 98.71, etc. [8]. - **Inflation Indicators**: CPI year - on - year is 2.40%, CPI month - on - month is 0.40%, core CPI year - on - year is 2.50%, core CPI month - on - month is 0.40%, PCE price index year - on - year is 2.90%, core PCE price index year - on - year is 3.00%, etc. [8]. - **Other Indicators**: The geopolitical risk index is 597.47, the VIX index is 25.50, the CRB commodity index is 356.89, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 6.9243 [10]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The report provides the probability distribution of the Fed's interest rate range from March 2026 to December 2027 according to the CME FedWatch tool [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View - The Nanhua Composite Index fell by -2.1% today compared to the closing price of the previous trading day [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Plate Index - The Nanhua Precious Metals Index had the largest increase, rising by 2.75%, while the Nanhua Metal Index had the smallest increase, rising by 0.19% [1] - The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index had the largest decline, falling by -5.1%, and the Nanhua Black Index had the smallest decline, falling by -0.8% [1] 3.2 Theme Index - All theme indices declined, with the Energy Index having the largest decline of -7.91% and the Economic Crops Index having the smallest decline of -0.06% [1] 3.3 Single - Variety Index - Among commodity futures single - variety indices, the Silver index had the largest increase, rising by 5.62% [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, LPG had a decline of -6.67%, asphalt had a decline of -7.99%, etc [11] - In the agricultural products sector, soybean meal had a decline of -0.73%, rapeseed had a decline of -1.24%, etc [8] - In the coal sector, coking coal had a decline of -3.98% [6]

明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 | | | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | 2026/3/10 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | -298.9↓ EC次主力收盘价 | 1848.900 | | | 2170 | -265.10↓ | | 期货盘面 | EC2604-EC2606价差 -63.50↓ EC2604-EC2608价差 | -321.10 | | | -308.70 | -122.50↓ | | EC合约基差 | | -303.44 | +387.50↑ | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | -3397↓ | 27805 | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the 1-year inflation expectation of the New York Fed in February was 3%, lower than the previous value of 3.09%. President Trump said that the Iran war might be coming to an end, which reversed the recent market concerns about rising inflation and economic stagflation. Overnight, the US dollar index, US bond yields, and crude oil prices fell, while gold and US stocks rose. The overnight performance of the peripheral market can boost the risk appetite of the equity market [1]. - In the domestic market, the market showed a volatile decline on Monday. The sharp rise in crude oil prices suppressed the risk appetite of A-shares. The decline of A-shares narrowed in the afternoon as crude oil prices fell, and A-shares showed more resilience compared to the periphery. The A-share market still followed the logic of rising oil prices, with coal, agriculture, and new energy sectors performing actively. The coal, computer, power equipment, public utilities, and petroleum and petrochemical sectors led the gains, while the communication, transportation, beauty care, military, and electronics sectors led the losses. There were 1,422 rising stocks and 3,960 falling stocks in the whole market [1]. - Overall, the overnight decline in crude oil prices and the signs of easing in the US-Iran conflict, along with the rise of US stocks, are favorable for the risk appetite of A-shares. Given the previous heavy volume decline near the 4,200-point level, there is significant pressure on the market index around this level. Considering the uncertainty of the US-Iran situation, it is believed that the index will show a volatile trend in the short term, and investors are advised to buy low and sell high [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Important Information - President Trump stated that the war was basically over, was considering controlling the Strait of Hormuz, was far from sending US ground troops to Iran, and it was too early to talk about seizing Iranian oil [4]. - US media reported that if Mujtaba did not meet US requirements, Trump supported killing him [5]. - Israeli media reported that Trump would make the final decision to end the military operation against Iran with Netanyahu at an "appropriate time." Additionally, Trump's son-in-law Kushner and US Middle East envoy Witkoff canceled their planned trip to Israel on Tuesday [5]. - Russian President Putin proposed several suggestions to quickly end the Iran conflict during a call with Trump. Sources said that the Trump administration was considering further relaxing sanctions on Russian oil [5]. - Iran threatened to strike neighboring oil facilities, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it would continue if the market could bear an oil price of $200 [5]. - Sources said that Trump was considering suppressing oil prices, with options including restricting oil exports and intervening in the oil futures market. The US Energy Secretary said that discussions were underway to coordinate the release of strategic oil reserves, and banning oil exports was not under consideration [5]. - The work report of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress stated that this year, laws on state-owned assets and finance would be formulated, and legislative research in areas such as artificial intelligence would be strengthened [5]. - The Supreme People's Court report mentioned rectifying "involutionary" competition and hearing the "choose one of two" cases of two major e-commerce platforms [6]. - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the consumer price index in February increased by 1.3% year-on-year, while the producer price index for industrial products decreased by 0.9% year-on-year [6]. - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange adjusted the trading fees for relevant contracts of fuel oil, crude oil, and low-sulfur fuel oil futures [7]. 2. Futures Market Tracking - **Performance**: The report provides detailed data on the closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, price change rates, basis, and other indicators of various futures contracts, including the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index [9]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: It presents the trading volume, trading volume changes, trading turnover, trading turnover changes, open interest, open interest changes, and other data of different futures contracts, as well as the net positions of the top 20 member institutions [10]. 3. Spot Market Tracking - **Market Performance**: The report shows the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading turnover, price-to-earnings ratios, and other information of various major indices, such as the Wind All A Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index [32]. - **Sector Performance**: It details the performance of different sectors, including upstream (petroleum and petrochemical, coal, non-ferrous metals, etc.), midstream (construction materials, power equipment, etc.), consumer (food and beverage, medicine, etc.), TMT (electronics, computer, etc.), large finance (bank, non-bank finance, etc.), and public utilities (power, transportation, etc.) [32]. - **Market Style Impact**: The report analyzes the impact of different market styles (cyclical, consumer, growth, financial, and stable) on the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices, including the daily, weekly, monthly, and annual contributions [33][34]. - **Valuation**: It provides the current valuations and historical percentile rankings of important indices and Shenwan sectors [36][39]. - **Other Indicators**: The report also includes charts and data on market weekly average trading volume, weekly average turnover rate, the number of rising and falling stocks in the two markets, index trading turnover changes, stock-bond relative returns, Hong Kong Stock Connect, margin trading balance, and margin trading net purchase amount and its proportion in A-share trading turnover [41][42][43][44]. 4. Liquidity Tracking - The report provides charts and data on central bank open market operations (including currency injection, currency withdrawal, and net currency injection) and Shibor interest rate levels [46].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 3 月 10 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 现实格局弱稳，钢矿延续震荡 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价偏弱震荡，录得 0.42%日跌幅，量仓收缩。现阶段， 螺纹钢供需两端迎来季节性回升，产业矛盾并未缓解，基本面延续相对 弱势，钢价继续承压，相对利好的是成本支撑，预计钢价延续震荡企 稳态势，关注需求表现情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.18%日跌幅，量仓收缩。目前来 看，热卷产量下降，但库存居高不下，供应压力未退，而需求韧性趋弱 产业矛盾持续累积，价格继续承压，相 ...

Report Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - A-share major indices closed higher, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains. The CSI 1000 was the strongest among the four broad-based indices. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets declined significantly. Over 4,500 stocks rose across the market. Industry sectors generally rose, with the communication and electronics sectors strengthening significantly, and the petroleum and petrochemical sector weakening significantly. Overseas, US President Trump said that the US war against Iran may end soon, causing US oil prices to plunge. The fall in oil prices provided a buffer for the market, but the risk of a subsequent oil price increase remains. Domestically, in February, China's CPI rose significantly year-on-year and month-on-month, and the decline in PPI narrowed. The PPI-CPI gap widened, suggesting a possible decline in CPI growth. In the first two months of 2026, China's import and export trade improved significantly, and external demand may support GDP. The government's work report lowered the economic growth target for 2026 compared to 2025, but the industrial policy indicates a shift towards high-quality development. The fiscal policy is more proactive than in 2025. Overall, as the impact of overseas geopolitical conflicts on reflation expectations is gradually digested, the Two Sessions have become the focus of the market. The support for the high-tech manufacturing industry in the government's work report has led to a significant increase in related sectors, and the positive fiscal policy has strengthened the market's expectation of policy support for the economy. As external conflicts fade, the market refocuses on the domestic market, and the stable and improving fundamentals provide support for the market. [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: The prices of all major and secondary futures contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased. The spreads between different contracts also changed, with some increasing and some decreasing. [2] - **Futures Positions**: The net positions of the top 20 holders of IF and IM decreased, while those of IH and IC increased. [2] - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all increased. The basis of the main contracts of IF and IH increased, while that of IC and IM decreased. [2] Market Sentiment - **Trading Volume and Margin Trading**: The A-share trading volume decreased, while the margin trading balance increased. [2] - **Northbound Trading and Repurchase**: The northbound trading volume increased, and the repurchase operation volume increased. [2] - **Main Funds and MLF**: The net outflow of main funds decreased, and no information on MLF was provided. [2] - **Stock Price Increase Ratio and Shibor**: The ratio of rising stocks increased, and the Shibor rate decreased. [2] - **Option Prices and Volatility**: The closing price of the IO at-the-money call option increased, and its implied volatility decreased. The closing price of the IO at-the-money put option decreased, and its implied volatility also decreased. The 20-day volatility of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index decreased, the trading volume PCR decreased, and the position PCR increased. [2] Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - The overall A-share market showed strength in terms of technology and capital. [2] Industry News - US President Trump said that the US war against Iran may end soon, and he is considering taking over the Strait of Hormuz. [2] - In February 2026, China's CPI rose 1.3% year-on-year and 1% month-on-month, and the PPI fell 0.9% year-on-year and rose 0.4% month-on-month. [2] - In the first two months of 2026, China's total import and export value of goods trade was 7.73 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%. Exports were 4.62 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%, and imports were 3.11 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.1%. [2] Key Events to Watch - March 4 - 11: The Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference [3] - March 5 - 12: The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress [3] - TBD: China's February financial data [3] - March 11, 20:30: US February CPI and core CPI [3] - March 12, 20:30: US January trade data [3] - March 13, 20:30: US February PCE and core PCE [3]