转自：新华财经 •银河证券：黄金中长期牛市的核心逻辑依然稳固 银河证券表示，不应将"美联储换帅"自动等同于市场趋势的大拐点，其政策如何影响美国经济的根本面 才是美元定价的基石。一个由沃什领导的美联储，或将开启央行角色的深刻转变：从金融危机后深度介 入、为市场提供支持的"后盾"，转向更为传统、注重规则与纪律约束的"制度锚"。美元预计短期走强， 长期呈"慢熊"格局；美债短期收益率上行，价格承压，中长期若政策可信，长期通胀预期锚定在2%附 近。全球股市短期承压，长期美股先破后立。黄金中长期牛市的核心逻辑依然稳固，央行购金将持续增 加，美元信用的任何瑕疵也会加速全球多极化储备体系的构建。 铜冠金源期货表示，隔夜公布的美国12月JOLTS职位空缺创五年多新低，远低于预期。美国挑战者企业 1月裁员10.8万人，创2009年以来同期新高，环比激增205%。美联储理事库克称，美联储必须在近期将 通胀率拉回目标水平，这对于维护其信誉至关重要。库克认为，目前风险偏向于通胀上行，同时经济前 景不确定性仍处高位。白银价格在短暂反弹之后再度大幅下挫。目前地缘局势暂时缓和，美联储官员发 布鹰派言论，且芝商所与上期所均再度宣布上调黄金白银 ...

后最观点2】影响因素分析：美国恢复原定于6日举行的美伊谈判、中美两国元首通电话等缓和市场避险需求，叠加美元上行风险增加、美股、比特币等大幅走弱、市场再度 网 #fom 担忧流动仪紧冲击，同时国内即将迎来春节，投机资金进一步撤退、打压市场情绪、贵会属市场遭遇二次抛售。但美国AIP数据不佳、周度申请失业金人数反弹, B（Ys、周五市场还将迎来非农就业报告，美元短期上行速变或有所放缓。同时自银现货隔紧格局不改，上期所延续去库，贵金属最为恐慌的地管阶段或已过去。综上，展 ₪Μ 《星后市，春节前，市场资金情绪或较为谨慎，贵金属价格料逐步进入区间震荡走势，但中长期逻辑尚未改变。中长期来看，贵金属牛市的底层逻辑仍旧坚固，在美 供参考) 联储年内仍有降息概率、全球地缘不痛定性持续和美国巨额债务将不断推进去美元化浪潮等背景下，全球央行/机构/居民的配置需求有望延续，贵金属价格重心仍 有上行空间,逐步企稳后将带来较好的中长期配置机会。 2 2017 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2026/2/6 ...

种类 利润估算 外购锂辉石精矿现金成本 138941 k 利 tt 王 外购锂辉石精矿利润 3100 140070 外购锂云母精矿现金成本 外购锂云母精矿利润 -1420 1、加拿大将允许最多49,000辆中国电动汽车进入加拿大市场,最优惠的关税率为 6.1% = T 2026年1月9日，财政部、税务总局联合发布关于调整光伏等产品出口退税政策的公告。公告指出，自2026年4月1日起至2026年12月31 他产品的增值税出口退税率由9%下调至6%;2027年1月1日起,取消电池产品增值税出口退税。 H 今日碳酸锂期价下跌主要系宏观情绪走弱引发的流动性连锁反应，叠加智利锂盐出口数据引发的恐慌情绪的蔓延。短期内下游节前备货需求基 完成主要影响节奏。但中长期的电池抢出口需求以及供给端末有大幅扩产的向上驱动未变。节前预计市场将趋于平淡、 员 免 告申的信息均源于公开可获得的资料，国贸期货力求准确可靠。但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构成个人投资建 对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要，投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况，据此投资、责任自负。本报告仅向 特定客户推送，未经国 ...

CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-02-06甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2605： 1、基本面：本周国内甲醇市场低位震荡概率较大。内地方面，春节前甲醇工厂仍以积极出货维持库存为主，供应相对 宽松。但随着春节临近，部分传统下游陆续停工放假。基本面仍显弱势，对行情有一定压制作用。与此同时，部分下游 仍有备货需求，且当前产销地区甲醇价格均处在底部空间，尤其是运费坚挺支撑销区到货价格。多空交织下预计后期内 地甲醇窄幅震荡。港口方面，压力边界上移至2400，预计在宏观未有炒作点的情况下，本周港口现货市场在压力位下方 区间震荡。关注地缘风险带来的市场不确定，巨大的政治冲突或快速改变定价逻辑，让市场波动不断加剧；中性 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2220 - 2280. It bottomed out and rebounded, influenced by soybean meal trends and technical consolidation. With the short - term negative impact of China's potential cancellation of Canadian agricultural product export restrictions out of the way, the market has returned to an oscillatory state. Although the spot demand for rapeseed meal is in the off - season, low inventory supports the market. Considering the good demand expectation after the Spring Festival, the market is expected to remain range - bound in the medium term despite short - term weakening due to the improvement in China - Canada trade relations [9]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Tips - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the long - holiday off - season. The spot market supply is expected to be tight in the short term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market expectation. Canada is in the rapeseed harvesting and exporting stage, but China - Canada trade issues have reduced short - term exports and domestic supply expectations [11]. - With the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China, China - Canada trade relations have improved in the short term. The mutual tariffs are expected to be gradually cancelled, and China's imports of Canadian rapeseed are about to resume. Future actions depend on the further development of China - Canada trade relations [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The reduction in Ukraine's rapeseed output and the increase in Russia's rapeseed output offset each other. There is still a possibility of an escalation in global geopolitical conflicts, which provides support for commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Good demand expectation for Chinese rapeseed meal after the Spring Festival and no pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal inventory [12]. - **Bearish Factors**: Short - term off - season for domestic rapeseed meal demand and the upcoming resumption of China's imports of Canadian rapeseed due to improved China - Canada trade relations [12]. - **Current Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of Canadian rapeseed imports arriving at ports [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Price and Spread**: From January 28 to February 5, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated. The spot price of rapeseed meal was relatively strong, and the spot premium remained at a relatively high level. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal narrowed, and the price difference of the 2605 contract between soybean meal and rapeseed meal declined from a high level [13][22][24]. - **Inventory**: The total domestic rapeseed meal inventory was 43.78 tons, down 2.6% week - on - week from 44.95 tons last week and 12.79% year - on - year compared to 50.2 tons in the same period last year. Oil mills' rapeseed inventory remained low, and rapeseed meal inventory was also at a low level [9]. - **Supply and Demand Balance**: The supply and demand balance tables of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2016 to 2025 are provided, showing changes in harvest area, output, consumption, inventory, etc. [19][21]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the given content 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **View**: Rapeseed meal bottomed out and rebounded due to Canada's Prime Minister's visit to China and the improvement in China - Canada trade relations. Considering the current off - season of domestic rapeseed meal supply and demand, the market will remain oscillatory after the overall negative factors are digested. Attention should be paid to the future development of China - Canada trade relations [9]. - **Strategy**: The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2220 - 2280 [9].

1.中国光伏行业协会预计，2026年中国光伏新增装机规模将回落至180GW至240GW，"十五五"期间年均光伏新增装机量为 238GW至287GW。工信部电子信息司副司长王世江指出，治理光伏行业内卷将是今年工作的重中之重。 2.欧洲央行维持基准利率不变，为去年6月以来连续第五次暂停降息。不过，欧洲央行并未释放下一步政策走向的明确信号， 强化了市场对货币政策在一段时间内保持稳定的预期。官员们正密切关注欧元升值对出口竞争力和通胀前景的影响。 3.上期所发布通知，自2月9日收盘结算时起，黄金、白银期货已上市合约涨跌停板幅度分别调整为17%和20%，套保持仓交易保 证金比例调整为18%和21%，一般持仓交易保证金比例调整为19%和22%。 早盘速递 2026/2/6 热点资讯 第 1 页，共 3 页 板块持仓 (1,400,000) (1,200,000) (1,000,000) (800,000) (600,000) (400,000) (200,000) 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 Wind农副产品 Wind谷物 Wind化工 Wind能源 Wind煤焦钢矿 Wind有色 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall financial market shows a complex and volatile trend, with different sectors affected by various factors such as macro - economic data, geopolitical risks, and supply - demand relationships. For example, the stock index futures market is affected by risk preferences and commodity price fluctuations; the bond market has opportunities due to the change of risk preferences; the agricultural product market is influenced by factors such as weather, trade relations, and supply and demand; the black metal market is affected by factors such as production, inventory, and downstream demand; the non - ferrous metal market is influenced by factors such as the US economic data, geopolitical risks, and supply and demand; the energy and chemical market is affected by factors such as geopolitical risks, supply and demand, and cost [19][22][25] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Core view: Risk preferences continue to decline, and the market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with a slightly stronger direction due to the strength of heavy - weight stocks. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be long on dips; for arbitrage, conduct IM\IC long 2609 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; for options, use bull spreads [20][21] Bond Index Futures - Core view: Risk preferences are fluctuating. The bond market performs relatively strongly, but the sentiment is still cautious. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be long on dips for TF and T contracts; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines [22][23] Agricultural Products Protein Meal - Core view: The demand side of US soybeans has improved, and the domestic soybean meal cost is supported, but the supply is becoming looser. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be on the sidelines in the short term; for arbitrage, expand the MRM spread; for options, use the short straddle strategy [25][26] Sugar - Core view: International sugar prices are at the bottom and oscillating, while domestic sugar prices are relatively strong and are also expected to oscillate at the bottom. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to pay attention to whether the previous low of international sugar prices can be effectively broken, and the domestic Zhengzhou sugar May contract is expected to oscillate at the bottom; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [31][32][33] Oil and Fat Sector - Core view: Oils and fats maintain a wide - range oscillation. The market is affected by factors such as trade and policy expectations, and there is a callback demand. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to short on rallies lightly or go long on dips after the callback; for arbitrage, consider the y59 reverse spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [34][35] Corn/Corn Starch - Core view: The spot price in the production area is stable, and the futures price oscillates weakly. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be long on the US 03 corn contract after it stabilizes and short on the 03 corn contract lightly on rallies; for arbitrage, widen the spread between 05 corn and starch; for options, stay on the sidelines [37][38] Live Pigs - Core view: The supply pressure has improved, and the spot price has risen slightly, but there is still pressure in the follow - up. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading and arbitrage are recommended to be on the sidelines; for options, use the short straddle strategy [40][41] Peanuts - Core view: The peanut spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillates in a narrow range. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to short on rallies lightly for the 03 peanut contract; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, short the pk603 - C - 8200 option [42][43][44] Eggs - Core view: Pre - festival stocking is coming to an end, and egg prices have fallen. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to short on rallies for the June contract; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [45][46][47] Apples - Core view: Pre - festival sales are good, and apple prices are firm. The May contract price is expected to rise easily and fall hard. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to go long on dips for the May contract and short on rallies for the October contract; for arbitrage, long the May contract and short the October contract; for options, stay on the sidelines [48][49][50] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - Core view: The fundamentals change little, and cotton prices are supported. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to go long on dips for the Zhengzhou cotton contract in the short term; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [52][53] Black Metals Steel - Core view: The demand is weakening marginally, and steel prices continue to oscillate following raw materials. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to follow the raw materials and oscillate weakly; for arbitrage, short the coil - coal ratio on rallies and continue to hold the short position of the coil - screw spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [55][56] Coking Coal and Coke - Core view: The market is mainly driven by funds and emotions, with large fluctuations. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to trade in bands and wait for opportunities to go long on dips; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [57][58][59] Iron Ore - Core view: Market expectations are fluctuating, and iron ore prices are running weakly. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be weak; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [60][61] Ferroalloys - Core view: The cost support is strong, and the previous long positions can be held. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to hold the previous long positions; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, short the out - of - the - money put options [62][63] Non - ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - Core view: Pessimistic sentiment is spreading, and short - term fluctuations are intensifying. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options are recommended to stay on the sidelines [65][67][68] Platinum and Palladium - Core view: Under the strong US dollar, the metals are oscillating. Be cautious when participating in unilateral trading. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be long on dips cautiously; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [68][69] Copper - Core view: Pay attention to the change of sentiment before the Spring Festival. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to operate cautiously; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [70][73][74] Alumina - Core view: Short - term marginal changes in production capacity cause fluctuations. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate strongly in the short term; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [75][76][77] Electrolytic Aluminum - Core view: Wait for the volatility to decline before the Spring Festival, and the medium - term expectation remains unchanged. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be cautious; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [78][79] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Core view: Oscillate following the sector. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options are recommended to stay on the sidelines [80][81] Zinc - Core view: Pay attention to the change of market sentiment. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to hold the short positions and move the stop - loss line down; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [82][84][85] Lead - Core view: Oscillate within a range. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate weakly within a range; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [86][88] Nickel - Core view: Oscillate following the non - ferrous metal sector. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize and then go long; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [89][91] Stainless Steel - Core view: Supported by cost, follow the nickel price. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to stay on the sidelines before the Spring Festival and go long on dips after the price stabilizes; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines [93][96] Industrial Silicon - Core view: The expectation of organic silicon production reduction increases, revising the previous view. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to operate within the range; for arbitrage and options, there is no recommendation for now [97][99] Polysilicon - Core view: Industry self - discipline and price - support expectations rise again, and the market fluctuates more. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be strong in oscillation and operate cautiously; for arbitrage and options, there is no recommendation for now [100][101] Lithium Carbonate - Core view: Before the Spring Festival, it is dominated by sentiment, and wait for the volatility to decline. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to reduce the exposure; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, short the out - of - the - money put options after the price stabilizes [102][104] Tin - Core view: Pay attention to the market sentiment. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to operate cautiously; for options, stay on the sidelines [105][106] Shipping Container Shipping - Core view: Shipping companies announce price increases in March, and pay attention to the geopolitical situation in Iran. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to stay on the sidelines before the Spring Festival; for arbitrage, conduct the 6 - 10 calendar spread [107][108][109] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Core view: Wait for the outcome of events. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be weak in oscillation; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [110][111][113] Asphalt - Core view: There are still concerns about the increase in raw material costs and supply gaps in the medium term. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate at a high level and go long on dips for the BU2606 contract; for arbitrage, pay attention to the long BU and short LU spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [114][115][116] Fuel Oil - Core view: The high - sulfur spot market is always strong, and pay attention to the short - term geopolitical risks. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate strongly and pay attention to geopolitical fluctuations; for arbitrage, hold the FU59 calendar spread and pay attention to the LU near - month reverse spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [118][119][120] LPG - Core view: Oscillate and consolidate before the Spring Festival. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [121][123] Natural Gas - Core view: Geopolitical risks reach a critical point, and cold weather is about to affect Eurasia. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to continue to hold the short positions for the TTF and JKM third - quarter contracts and the HH second - quarter contract; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [123][124] PX&PTA - Core view: Polyester production cuts are gradually implemented, and textile sales are gradually stopping. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate and consolidate; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [126][127] BZ&EB - Core view: The supply - demand balance is expected to improve, and benzene ethylene is in a stage of destocking. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate at a high level; for arbitrage, conduct the calendar spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [128][130][131] Ethylene Glycol - Core view: The inventory accumulation pressure is obvious. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate weakly; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [132][133] Short - fiber - Core view: Short - fiber factories reduce production as planned. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate and consolidate; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [134][135] Bottle Chips - Core view: The processing margin is strengthening. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate and consolidate; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [136][137] Propylene - Core view: The supply - demand support is acceptable, and the spot price is running strongly. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate at a high level; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [139][140][141] Plastic PP - Core view: The PP production profit margin has improved slightly. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the L 2605 contract and the PP 2605 contract; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [142][143] Caustic Soda - Core view: The caustic soda price is weak. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate weakly; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [144][146][147] PVC - Core view: Oscillate in a wide range. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to go long on dips; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [150][151] Soda Ash - Core view: The price is weakening. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to go short on rallies before the Spring Festival; for arbitrage, short glass and long soda ash; for options, short the call options [152][155][156] Glass - Core view: The price is weakening. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to go short on rallies before the Spring Festival; for arbitrage, short glass and long soda ash; for options, short the call options [157][159] Methanol - Core view: Run weakly. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to stay on the sidelines; for arbitrage, pay attention to the 59 calendar spread; for options, short the put options on the callback [160][161][164] Urea - Core view: The market turns weak again. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [165][167] Pulp - Core view: The pulp price continues to oscillate in a wide range. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to operate within the range and long on dips for aggressive investors; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, short the SP2605 - C - 5350 option [168][169][171] Offset Printing Paper - Core view: High inventory suppresses the paper price. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to go short on rallies; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, short the OP2604 - C - 4200 option [171][172][178] Logs - Core view: The change of delivery rules is beneficial to the log valuation. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to hold the long positions; for arbitrage, pay attention to the 3 - 5 reverse spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [175][176][180] Natural Rubber and 20 -号 Rubber - Core view: As the Spring Festival approaches, the tire production starts to increase marginally. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the RU 05 contract and the NR 04 contract; for arbitrage, hold the NR2605 - RU2605 spread; for options, reduce the position of the RU2605 call 18250 contract and stay on the sidelines [180][181][183] Butadiene Rubber - Core view: The synthetic rubber inventory turns to year - on - year destocking. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the BR 04 contract; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [184][185][186]

Report Information - Report Title: Coking Coal Daily Report [1] - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center [1] - Report Date: February 6, 2026 [1] Price and Inventory Data Coal Prices - **柳林主焦**: The latest price is 1,483.00, with no daily change. It increased by 80.00 monthly and 13.47% annually [2]. - **原煤口岸库提价**: The latest price is 1,060.00, with no daily change. It increased by 40.00 weekly, 26.00 monthly, and 15.85% annually [2]. - **沙河驿蒙5**: The latest price is 1,400.00, with no daily change. It increased by 60.00 monthly and 3.70% annually [2]. - **安泽主焦**: The latest price is 1,570.00, decreased by 30.00 daily, 70.00 weekly. It increased by 70.00 monthly and 12.14% annually [2]. - **Peak Downs**: The latest price is 224.00, increased by 2.00 daily, decreased by 16.00 weekly, 4.50 monthly, and increased by 25.00 annually [2]. - **Goonyella**: The latest price is 224.00, increased by 2.00 daily, decreased by 16.00 weekly, 5.50 monthly, and increased by 22.90 annually [2]. - **盘面05**: The latest price is 1,182.00, decreased by 17.00 daily, increased by 6.50 weekly, decreased by 22.00 monthly, and increased by 5.49% annually [2]. - **盘面09**: The latest price is 1,256.00, decreased by 20.50 daily, increased by 2.50 weekly, decreased by 19.50 monthly, and increased by 3.89% annually [2]. - **盘面01**: The latest price is 1,422.00, decreased by 16.50 daily, decreased by 8.00 weekly, increased by 258.00 monthly, and increased by 13.53% annually [2]. Inventory Data - **总库存**: The latest inventory is 4,197.93, increased by 67.69 weekly and 145.36 monthly [2]. - **煤矿库存**: The latest inventory is 264.65, decreased by 2.53 weekly, 30.36 monthly, and 30.64% annually [2]. - **港口库存**: The latest inventory is 286.38, decreased by 3.00 weekly, 14.92 monthly, and 36.82% annually [2]. - **钢厂焦煤库存**: The latest inventory is 814.36, increased by 11.12 weekly, 12.09 monthly, and decreased by 2.11% annually [2]. - **焦化焦煤库存**: The latest inventory is 1,234.79, increased by 57.08 weekly, 182.29 monthly, and 17.83% annually [2]. - **焦化产能利用率**: The latest utilization rate is 72.20, increased by 0.34 weekly, decreased by 0.49 monthly, and 1.14% annually [2]. - **焦化焦炭库存**: The latest inventory is 86.33, increased by 0.42 weekly, 0.66 monthly, and decreased by 0.58% annually [2]. Basis and Spread Data - **05基差**: The latest basis is -52.34, increased by 17.00 daily, 50.97 weekly, 56.48 monthly, and 24.71 annually [2]. - **09基差**: The latest basis is -126.34, increased by 20.50 daily, 54.97 weekly, 53.98 monthly, and decreased by 0.24 annually [2]. - **01基差**: The latest basis is -292.34, increased by 16.50 daily, 65.47 weekly, decreased by 223.52 monthly, and increased by 0.40 annually [2]. - **5 - 9价差**: The latest spread is -74.00, increased by 3.50 daily, 4.00 weekly, decreased by 2.50 monthly, and decreased by 0.16 annually [2]. - **9 - 1价差**: The latest spread is -166.00, decreased by 4.00 daily, increased by 10.50 weekly, decreased by 277.50 monthly, and increased by 2.82 annually [2]. - **1 - 5价差**: The latest spread is 240.00, increased by 0.50 daily, decreased by 14.50 weekly, increased by 280.00 monthly, and increased by 0.82 annually [2].

隔夜夜盘市场走势 1.国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX 黄金期货跌 3.08%报 4798.10 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货跌 16.64%报 70.35 美元/盎司。芝商所与上期所上调黄金白银保 证金及涨跌停板限制，抑制市场流动性；同时美联储官员强调维持紧缩政策，削 弱避险需求，共同导致贵金属价格下跌。 2. 美油主力合约收跌 3.1%，报 63.12 美元/桶；布油主力合约跌 2.98%，报 67.39 美元/桶。伊朗确认将与美国谈判，缓解了市场对军事冲突导致供应受阻的担忧， 同时美国私营部门就业数据引发对经济放缓及石油需求减弱的担忧，叠加原油供 应过剩预期，共同导致油价下跌。 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Date: February 6, 2026 - Author: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Report's Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are neutral, and their futures prices are expected to fluctuate today [4][7] - The suspension of OPEC's production increase in Q1 and geopolitical factors affecting oil prices provide strong cost support for polyolefins [4][7] - The downstream demand for both LLDPE and PP is weak, and the supply-demand relationship is sensitive to marginal changes [6][8] Summary by Section LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range. OPEC+ suspended its production increase plan in Q1 2026 due to weak seasonal demand. Affected by geopolitical factors, the crude oil price is strong and volatile, driving the polyolefins with poor device profits and strong cost support to follow the fluctuations. Near the Spring Festival, the demand from the agricultural film and packaging film industries is weak. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6,750 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is -27, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.4%, which is neutral [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 403,000 tons (+54,000 tons), which is neutral [4] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, showing a bullish trend [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, showing a bearish trend [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today [4] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro environment and crude oil situation affect PP. PDH device maintenance is relatively high. Near the Spring Festival, the demand for plastic weaving and pipes is weak. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6,650 (-40), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is -26, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.4%, which is neutral [7] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 416,000 tons (+15,000 tons), showing a relatively high level [7] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, showing a bullish trend [7] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish trend [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today [7] Supply-Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, with the capacity growth rate reaching 20.5% in 2025E [14] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally increased, with the capacity growth rate expected to be 11.0% in 2025E [16] Other Information - The report also includes data on spot prices, futures prices, inventory changes, production cash flows, and internal and external price differences of LLDPE and PP, as well as corresponding trend charts [9][10][12][17][19][21][23][25][27]