Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but offers specific trading suggestions for various futures products [1] Core Viewpoints - The report provides trading strategies for different futures products based on their market conditions and fundamental factors, including long - term and short - term outlooks, and also analyzes the influencing factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors [1][5][6] Summary by Category Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Long - term optimistic, buy on dips. Market risk appetite has recovered, and the volatility of the impact of the US - Iran conflict on the market may decline, leading to a potential rebound in the stock index [1][5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Range - bound. The trading around the Two Sessions and short - term reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts is over. With the easing of the external situation, the market may focus more on domestic inflation data [1][6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. After the Spring Festival, the coking coal market is weak and stable. Mines are resuming production, but the trading atmosphere is weak, and downstream demand is slow to recover [1][8][9] - **Rebar**: Range - bound trading. The rebar futures price is below the electric furnace valley electricity cost, with a low static valuation. The market is affected by overseas situations, and the steel is in the inventory accumulation period. It is expected to be range - bound and slightly stronger in the short term [1][10] - **Glass**: Sell on rallies. The fundamentals are poor, with increasing supply, rising inventory, and weak demand. Although the futures price has rebounded due to capital bottom - fishing, the upside is limited [1][11][12] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Short - term range - bound trading or wait - and - see, with an operating range of 98,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton. Macroeconomic factors have a negative impact on copper prices, and the supply is relatively sufficient. However, the consumption expectation provides some support [1][14][15] - **Aluminum**: Strengthen observation. The price of domestic bauxite is falling, and the production capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum is increasing. The Middle East situation has a two - sided impact on aluminum prices, and it is recommended to allocate more while controlling positions [1][16] - **Nickel**: Moderately hold long positions on dips. The reduction of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia supports the price, but the demand at the high price is weak, and the inventory is accumulating [1][17][18] - **Tin**: Range - bound trading. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream consumption is in a state of rigid demand. It is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations [1][19] - **Gold and Silver**: Range - bound. The US - Iran conflict has led to fluctuations in inflation and interest rate cut expectations. The medium - term price center of gold and silver has moved up, but it is recommended to wait and see [1][20][21][22] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound. The supply and demand are both increasing. There are concerns about supply disruptions, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate [1][23][24] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Range - bound. The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, and the export has some support. It is expected to be range - bound and slightly stronger in the short term [1][25][27] - **Caustic Soda**: Range - bound. There is an expectation of increased exports under the influence of geopolitics, and the price has rebounded strongly at a low valuation. Attention should be paid to supply - side maintenance and downstream replenishment [1][28] - **Styrene**: Bullish and range - bound. The cost is supported by rising oil prices, the inventory pressure is light, and it is recommended to buy on dips without chasing highs [1][29][30] - **Polyolefins**: Bullish and range - bound. The cost is supported by rising oil and gas prices, and the supply - demand situation has improved marginally [1][31] - **Rubber**: Bullish and range - bound. The cost is supported by high overseas raw material prices, but the inventory pressure is large. It is recommended to buy on dips without chasing highs [1][32] - **Urea**: Bullish and range - bound. The supply is increasing, the demand from agriculture and compound fertilizers is rising, and the inventory is decreasing. It is recommended for range - bound trading [1][33] - **Methanol**: Bullish and range - bound. The conflict in Iran may cause a supply gap in China. The domestic supply and demand are in a certain state, and it is recommended for range - bound trading [1][34][35] - **Soda Ash**: Sell on rallies. The supply is expected to remain high, the inventory pressure is increasing, and the price is expected to be under pressure [1][36] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Bullish and range - bound. The global cotton supply and demand situation has changed, and the price is expected to be bullish and range - bound after the festival [1][37][38] - **Apples**: Bullish and range - bound. The trading is stable, the price of farmers' goods is stable, and the sales in the sales area are okay [1][39] - **Jujubes**: Range - bound. The acquisition price in the production area is based on quality [1][40] Agricultural and Livestock - **Hogs**: 05 contract: short on rallies; 07 and 09 contracts: cautiously bullish. The short - term supply exceeds demand, and the price is under pressure. In the long - term, the supply may tighten, but the price increase is limited [1][41][42] - **Eggs**: Wait for rallies to short near - month contracts. The egg price has rebounded, the supply is sufficient, and the inventory has decreased. It is recommended to short on rallies for near - month contracts [1][43] - **Corn**: Bullish and range - bound, be cautious about chasing highs at high levels. The short - term supply - demand game is intense, and the long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [1][44] - **Soybean Meal**: Short on rallies at high levels. The price of US soybeans has fluctuated, and the domestic supply - demand situation is affected by factors such as imports. It is recommended to short on rallies [1][45][46] - **Oils and Fats**: Bullish and range - bound, recommend a rolling long strategy for soybean and palm oils. The prices of various oils and fats are affected by factors such as international oil prices, production, and exports. Palm and soybean oils are relatively strong, while rapeseed oil is relatively weak [1][46][51]

Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily Review - Date: March 10, 2026 - Research Team: Macro Finance Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the medium to long - term, the unprecedented changes in a century and Sino - US competition will continue to drive the gold price up. In the short - term, the Iran war boosts safe - haven demand but also weakens the Fed's rate - cut expectations and pushes up the US dollar exchange rate. The precious metals sector has high volatility, and the gold price is expected to show a wide - range shock pattern. Investors are advised to take a bullish position while strictly controlling positions. This week, attention should be paid to the development of the Iran situation, Sino - US price data, and China's trade data [4] - After the sharp decline at the end of January due to the Fed's suspension of the rate - cut process and Trump's nomination of a hawkish Fed chairman candidate, the precious metals sector showed a strong sign of stabilizing and rebounding in February. Affected by factors such as the chaotic international trade situation, the gloomy global economic growth outlook, the Fed's loose monetary policy, and rising geopolitical risks, the precious metals sector is expected to continue to rise strongly along the upward trend line since September 2025. However, historical experience shows that the precious metals rally driven by geopolitical conflicts is often short - lived, and investors are advised to control positions, maintain a bullish view, long - hedgers can seize the opportunity to establish hedging positions, and short - hedgers should appropriately reduce hedging positions [6] Summary by Directory 1. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - The weak US job market boosts the Fed's rate - cut expectations. However, Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz hinders international crude oil trade, and Iran's selection of a hard - line successor as the supreme leader raises concerns about the long - termization of the Iran war. Rising oil prices and inflation may hinder the Fed from cutting rates. On Monday's Asian session, the London gold price once fell to $5014 per ounce [4] Medium - term Market - After the sharp decline in late January, the precious metals sector rebounded in February. On February 20, the US Federal Supreme Court's ruling that the Trump administration had no right to levy tariffs under the IEEPA re - destabilized international trade, pushing the international gold price up to around $5200 per ounce, and Middle - East geopolitical risks increased the safe - haven demand for precious metals [6] Domestic Precious Metals Market Conditions | Contract | Previous Closing Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change (%) | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold Index | 1,143.78 | 1,155.57 | 1,123.86 | 1,143.19 | - 0.05% | 289,469 | 4731 | | SHFE Silver Index | 21,571 | 21,857 | 20,433 | 21,576 | 0.03% | 492,049 | - 5469 | | GZFE Platinum Index | 559.04 | 558.89 | 521.83 | 548.31 | - 1.92% | 26,741 | - 639 | | GZFE Palladium Index | 420.61 | 416.08 | 399.48 | 412.47 | - 1.94% | 9,253 | 26 | [5] 2. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report includes charts such as Shanghai gold and silver futures indexes, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indexes against Shanghai Gold Exchange T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [8][10][16] 3. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Iran announced that Mojtaba Khamenei would succeed his father Ali Khamenei as the supreme leader, indicating that the hard - line faction still firmly controls the Tehran regime. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said the government would continue military operations [17] - US employment decreased by 92,000 in February unexpectedly, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, which may indicate a deterioration in the labor market. The decline in employment was partially due to strikes in the healthcare industry and winter storms affecting the construction and leisure and hospitality industries [17] - Due to the Iran war, Iraq's oil production in southern major oil fields has dropped by 70%. Qatar's energy minister said that if the Iran conflict continues and pushes the oil price to $150 per barrel, all Gulf energy - producing countries are expected to stop exports within weeks. Kuwait National Petroleum Company also started to cut crude oil production and declared force majeure [17]

文字早评 2026/03/10 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、养龙虾热度持续发酵，今天又有地方下场支持 openclaw，同时更多大厂推出 openclaw 一键部署； 2、伊朗警告警告美国和以色列停止"反人类行为"，油价或超 200 美元； 3、价值 1 亿美元的委内瑞拉黄金已运抵美国，据称"将用于工业和商业用途"； 4、宁德时代：2025 年营收 4237.02 亿元，同比增长 17.04%，净利 722.01 亿元，同比增长 42.28%；拟 分红超 300 亿。 基差年化比率： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：9.47%/6.60%/9.14%/6.94%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：4.05%/6.21%/12.84%/9.68%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：4.22%/7.76%/15.28%/11.36%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.53%/1.46%/2.03%/3.61%。 【策略观点】 近日在美伊冲突扰动全球风险偏好，油价持续上涨、美联储降息预期减弱，美债收益率快速攀升，国内 "两会"延续了适度宽松的货币、更积极的财政政策，建议关注战局转变，注意控制风险。 国债 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal (M2605)**: It is expected to oscillate in the range of 2950 - 3010. The market is currently in a moderately bullish oscillatory pattern, influenced by factors such as the US - China trade agreement and South American soybean harvest weather. The basis is bullish, but inventory and main - position data are bearish [9]. - **Soybeans (A2605)**: It is expected to oscillate in the range of 4720 - 4820. The market will maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term, affected by factors like the US - China trade negotiation and South American soybean production. The basis and inventory are bearish, while the price trend on the disk is bullish [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - **Soybean Meal**: It is in a moderately bullish oscillatory pattern, with the US - China trade agreement and South American soybean harvest weather being the main influencing factors. The basis is positive, inventory is increasing, the price on the disk is above the 20 - day moving average, and the main - position short orders are increasing [9]. - **Soybeans**: It will maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term, affected by the US - China trade negotiation and South American soybean production. The basis is negative, inventory is decreasing, the price on the disk is above the 20 - day moving average, and the main - position short orders are increasing [11]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement on US - China tariff negotiation is short - term bullish for US soybeans, but the quantity of Chinese purchases and US soybean weather are still uncertain. The short - term US soybean market is moderately bullish and oscillatory. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China will continue to decline in the first quarter, and the soybean inventory of oil mills will remain at a relatively high level in March. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profit leads to a low expectation of pig restocking, suppressing the price expectation of soybean meal in March. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. Due to the possible weather speculation in South American soybean - producing areas and the impact of the preliminary US - China trade agreement, the soybean meal market is short - term moderately bullish and oscillatory [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - **Soybean Meal** - **Bullish factors**: The preliminary US - China trade agreement is short - term bullish for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills has no pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of South American soybean - producing areas. - **Bearish factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China will remain at a relatively high level in March; the harvest of Brazilian soybeans is advancing, and South American soybeans are expected to have a good harvest under normal weather conditions. - **Soybeans** - **Bullish factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price. - **Bearish factors**: The good harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of soybeans [14][15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From February 27 to March 9, the transaction prices and volumes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also changed [16]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Price Summary**: From March 2 to March 9, the futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal showed an upward trend [18]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: From February 26 to March 9, the warehouse receipts of soybeans and soybean meal changed, with some fluctuations in the quantity of warehouse receipts [20]. 3.5 Position Data - The report does not provide specific content about position data. 3.6 Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2016 to 2025, the harvest area, output, total supply, total consumption, and ending inventory of global soybeans changed, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [32]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2016 to 2025, the harvest area, output, import volume, total supply, total consumption, and ending inventory of domestic soybeans changed, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [33]. 3.7 Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress - **2023/24 Argentina Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: The planting and harvest progress in 2023/24 is compared with the same period last year and the five - year average [34]. - **2024 US Soybean Planting, Growth, and Harvest Progress**: The planting, growth, and harvest progress in 2024 are compared with the same period last year and the five - year average [35][36][37][38]. - **2024/25 Brazil and Argentina Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: The planting and harvest progress in 2024/25 are compared with the same period last year and the five - year average [39][40][41]. - **2025/26 Brazil and Argentina Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: The planting and harvest progress in 2025/26 are compared with the same period last year and the five - year average [42][43]. 3.8 USDA Recent Monthly Supply - Demand Reports - From July 2025 to February 2026, the planting area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, new - bean export, and pressing volume of US soybeans changed, and the production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans is also reported [44]. 3.9 Other Market Conditions - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans increased from a low level and increased year - on - year. - The soybean inventory of oil mills increased, and the soybean meal inventory decreased from a high level. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills increased from a low level, and the soybean meal output in February decreased slightly year - on - year. - The unfulfilled contracts of oil mills decreased slightly, and the short - term stocking demand weakened. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased with the oscillation of US soybeans, and the disk profit fluctuated slightly. - The pig inventory increased slightly year - on - year, the sow inventory decreased year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month. - The pig price continued to decline recently, and the piglet price fluctuated slightly. - The proportion of large pigs in China decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs fluctuated slightly. - The loss of domestic pig - farming profit expanded. - The pig - to - grain ratio and feed - to - meat ratio decreased to a low level [45][47][50][51][53][55][57][59][61][63][65]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2026-3-10 通胀担忧升温叠加美元偏强，贵⾦属震 荡运⾏ 美伊冲突已进⼊第⼗天，敌对⾏动持续；伊朗领导层交接完成，哈梅内伊 之⼦当选新领袖、表明强硬派依然牢牢掌权，特朗普表态"结果不可接 受"，地缘⻛险持续升温。⽇内贵⾦属震荡运⾏，内外盘⾛势有所分化， 主因中东局势升级进⼀步推升⽇内油价、加剧通胀担忧，抵消上周五美国 ⾮农数据爆冷带来的利好。预计短线贵⾦属维持区间震荡，后续重点关注 霍尔⽊兹海峡局势、3⽉11⽇将公布的美国2⽉CPI数据、3⽉17-18⽇联储 议息会议决议等。（以上新闻来⾃中国新闻⽹和新京报，数据来⾃万得） 宏观研究团队 研究员： 黄金观点：短期或震荡运行，关注后续滞胀交易切换的潜在驱动 逻辑：万得数据显示，日内黄金震荡运行，COMEX金价跌幅超1%，SHF E金价变动不大，主因日内原油价格拉涨加剧通胀担忧，抑制美联储 降息预期并支撑美元偏强。中东地缘风险延续，据中国新闻网报道， 伊朗已宣布已故最高领袖赛义德·阿里·哈梅内伊之子穆杰塔巴·哈 梅内伊为新任最高领袖，表明伊朗强硬派掌权格局稳固。此外，交易 商从黄金 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2026-03-10 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 近期要闻： 1.国内水产养殖进入季节性淡季，现货市场供应短期维持偏紧预期，需 求端短期偏少压制盘面预期，加拿大油菜籽对中国出口恢复正常，中国进口 加拿大油菜籽数量逐渐回升。 2.随着加拿大总理访问中国，中加贸易关系短期改善，双方加征关税逐 步取消，中国对加拿大油菜籽进口已经恢复，未来等待中加贸易关系进一步 发展情况明朗再行决定。 3.全球油菜籽今年产量保持增产，主要加拿大油菜籽产量高于预期。 4.俄乌冲突尚在进行，乌克兰油菜籽减产和俄罗斯油菜籽产量增加相对 抵消影响。中东紧张局势进一步升级，全球地缘冲突未来仍有上升可能 ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 锰硅 供需面偏弱 （2026 年 3 月 10 日） 2 月下旬以来，锰硅期现价格迎来强势上涨，主力合约期价最高涨至(2n 元/吨，突破了自去年 8 月以来的震荡区间上沿，累计涨幅超 12%;现货价格同步走强，主流地区同期录得 200~300 元/吨涨 幅。 驱动价格上行的逻辑源于矿端扰动。市场传南非 2026 年度或将开始征收出口税。南非为国内锰 矿进口的主要来源圖，2025 年进口占比为 53%，其矿端政策调整易扰动锰矿市场。尽管南非财政都 发布的 2026 年度预算暂未提及出口矿产资源征收生态出口税，但因近期南非电力成本拾升，叠加大 宗商品中资源品价格走强以及中东冲突带来的运输影响，市场对锰矿供应的担忧未退，主流锰矿商 报价以及港口价格均上涨，锰矿强势支撑锰硅价格上行。 不过，锰硅库存居高不下，易抑制价格走势。锰硅生产企业厂内库存维持高位，且多数集中在 主产区，去化压力偏大。截至 3 月 6 日当周，钢联统计的锰硅生产企业厂内库存总量为 38.73 万吨, 较前期高位仅下降 1.1 万吨，依旧显著高于去年同期，同比增 25.12 万吨，增 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report indicates that the stock index futures may stabilize and rebound [3] Core Viewpoints - On March 9, all the current-month contracts of the four major stock index futures declined. IF dropped by 1.09%, IH by 0.97%, IC by 0.75%, and IM by 0.28% [1] - On this trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded, indicating an increase in investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF increased by 53,708 lots, IH by 21,193 lots, IC by 66,844 lots, and IM by 98,751 lots. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF increased by 18,910 lots, IH by 4,497 lots, IC by 17,558 lots, and IM by 31,272 lots [2] - The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1 [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures Data - **IF Contracts**: The closing price of IF2603 was 4,599.2, down 1.09% with a basis of -16.26, and the trading volume was 91,988 lots, an increase of 31,825 lots. The closing price of IF2604 was 4,580.2, down 1.20% with a basis of -35.26, and the trading volume was 7,350 lots, an increase of 1,890 lots. The closing price of IF2606 was 4,537, down 1.10% with a basis of -78.46, and the trading volume was 35,932 lots, an increase of 15,625 lots. The closing price of IF2609 was 4,464.6, down 1.13% with a basis of -150.86, and the trading volume was 12,496 lots, an increase of 4,368 lots [1] - **IH Contracts**: The closing price of IH2603 was 2,962.4, down 0.97% with a basis of -0.59, and the trading volume was 41,318 lots, an increase of 13,354 lots. The closing price of IH2604 was 2,958, down 1.04% with a basis of -4.99, and the trading volume was 3,430 lots, an increase of 878 lots. The closing price of IH2606 was 2,951.8, down 0.94% with a basis of -11.19, and the trading volume was 14,731 lots, an increase of 5,709 lots. The closing price of IH2609 was 2,912.6, down 0.94% with a basis of -50.39, and the trading volume was 5,209 lots, an increase of 1,252 lots [1] - **IC Contracts**: The closing price of IC2603 was 8,267, down 0.75% with a basis of -12.48, and the trading volume was 116,276 lots, an increase of 34,835 lots. The closing price of IC2604 was 8,220, down 0.79% with a basis of -59.48, and the trading volume was 10,054 lots, an increase of 2,530 lots. The closing price of IC2606 was 8,081.8, down 0.88% with a basis of -197.68, and the trading volume was 58,224 lots, an increase of 23,707 lots. The closing price of IC2609 was 7,901.8, down 0.96% with a basis of -377.68, and the trading volume was 18,813 lots, an increase of 5,772 lots [1] - **IM Contracts**: The closing price of IM2603 was 8,191, down 0.28% with a basis of -12.87, and the trading volume was 168,105 lots, an increase of 58,898 lots. The closing price of IM2604 was 8,130.2, down 0.37% with a basis of -73.67, and the trading volume was 12,516 lots, an increase of 4,293 lots. The closing price of IM2606 was 7,970.8, down 0.40% with a basis of -233.07, and the trading volume was 69,412 lots, an increase of 27,351 lots. The closing price of IM2609 was 7,765, down 0.48% with a basis of -438.87, and the trading volume was 24,377 lots, an increase of 8,209 lots [1] Position Changes of the Top 20 Members in Stock Index Futures - For IF contracts, the long positions of IF2603 increased by 9,079 lots, and the short positions increased by 8,528 lots. The long positions of IF2604 increased by 1,749 lots, and the short positions increased by 1,961 lots. The long positions of IF2606 increased by 4,578 lots, and the short positions increased by 5,414 lots. The long positions of IF2609 increased by 1,626 lots, and the short positions increased by 2,167 lots [5] - For IH contracts, the long positions of IH2603 and IH2604 increased by 2,295 lots, and the short positions increased by 1,549 lots. The long positions of IH2606 increased by 1,049 lots, and the short positions increased by 1,002 lots. The long positions of IH2609 increased by 312 lots, and the short positions increased by 186 lots [5] - For IC contracts, the long positions of IC2603 increased by 7,753 lots, and the short positions increased by 5,452 lots. The long positions of IC2604 increased by 872 lots, and the short positions increased by 802 lots. The long positions of IC2606 increased by 7,914 lots, and the short positions increased by 7,034 lots. The long positions of IC2609 increased by 2,228 lots, and the short positions increased by 2,322 lots [5] - For IM contracts, the long positions of IM2603 increased by 13,227 lots, and the short positions increased by 9,080 lots. The long positions of IM2604 increased by 2,032 lots, and the short positions increased by 2,059 lots. The long positions of IM2606 increased by 9,733 lots, and the short positions increased by 8,606 lots [5] Market Conditions in Other Areas and Their Influences - The statement of US President Trump that the war against Iran may end soon led to a rapid decline in US oil prices, which once dropped by more than 10%. The G7 finance ministers held a phone conference to discuss how to deal with the soaring oil prices caused by the war between the US, Israel and Iran. They basically reached a consensus not to release strategic oil reserves for the time being [7] - Affected by the blocked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the production cuts of major oil-producing countries, international oil prices soared again. WTI crude oil futures once rose by more than 31%, and Brent crude oil once soared by nearly 29%, both approaching $120 per barrel. The A-share market was affected by the tense situation in the Middle East and the soaring oil prices. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.67%, and the total trading volume was 2.67 trillion yuan [8] - The Hong Kong stock market fluctuated and declined. The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.35%, and the trading volume was 392.33 billion Hong Kong dollars. The net purchase amount of southbound funds reached 37.213 billion Hong Kong dollars, setting a record high [9] - The three major US stock indexes closed higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.5%, the S&P 500 Index rose by 0.83%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 1.38% [9] - The three major European stock indexes closed lower. The German DAX Index fell by 0.77%, the French CAC40 Index fell by 0.98%, and the UK FTSE 100 Index fell by 0.34% [10] - Affected by the tense situation in the Middle East, the Asia-Pacific stock markets experienced a "Black Monday". The South Korean Composite Index fell by 5.96%, and the Nikkei 225 Index fell by 5.2% [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of Shanghai Zinc ZN2604 is expected to be in a consolidation phase. The previous trading day saw Shanghai Zinc moving in a volatile manner, closing with a small positive line. There was an increase in trading volume, and both long and short positions reduced, with long positions decreasing more. Technically, the price is above the long - term moving average with strong support. The short - term KDJ indicator is rising and operating in the weak zone, while the trend indicator is declining, indicating a stalemate between long and short forces [2][19]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - In November 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.197 million tons, consumption was 1.168 million tons, with a supply surplus of 29,000 tons. From January to November, global zinc plate production was 12.7561 million tons, consumption was 13.1065 million tons, with a supply shortage of 350,400 tons. In November, global zinc ore production was 1.069 million tons, and from January to November, it was 12.1419 million tons. The overall situation is considered bullish [2]. 3.2 Basis - The spot price is 24,390, and the basis is - 30, which is considered neutral [2]. 3.3 Inventory - On March 9, LME zinc inventory decreased by 175 tons to 94,800 tons compared to the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrant decreased by 101 tons to 76,349 tons, which is considered bullish [2]. 3.4 Market Trends - On March 9, in the SHFE zinc futures market, different delivery months showed different price fluctuations, trading volumes, and open interests. For example, the 2604 contract had an opening price of 24,350, a closing price of 24,420, a trading volume of 161,057 lots, and an open interest of 80,681 lots with a decrease of 4,635 lots [3]. 3.5 Spot Market - On March 9, in the domestic spot market, the price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was in the range of 24,340 - 24,440, with an average price of 24,390, up 220 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 24,260 - 24,360, with an average price of 24,310, up 210 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, it was 24,350 - 24,450, with an average price of 24,400, up 210 yuan/ton; in Zhejiang, it was 24,370 - 24,470, with an average price of 24,420, up 210 yuan/ton [4]. 3.6 Social Inventory - From February 26, 2026, to March 9, 2026, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets increased from 180,400 tons to 218,300 tons. Compared with March 2, it increased by 63,000 tons, and compared with March 5, it increased by 47,000 tons [5]. 3.7 Futures Warehouse Receipts - On March 9, the total SHFE zinc warehouse receipts were 76,349 tons, a decrease of 101 tons compared to the previous day. The warehouse receipts in Tianjin decreased by 101 tons, while those in other regions remained unchanged [7]. 3.8 LME Inventory Distribution - On March 9, the total LME zinc inventory was 94,800 tons, a decrease of 175 tons compared to the previous day. The inventory in Singapore decreased by 175 tons, while the inventories in other regions remained unchanged [8]. 3.9 Zinc Concentrate Price - On March 9, the prices of 50% - grade zinc concentrates in major domestic cities were mostly 20,950 yuan/ton, with some at 20,850 yuan/ton, and the price increases ranged from 70 to 170 yuan/ton [10]. 3.10 Zinc Ingot Smelter Price - On March 9, the prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters all increased by 210 yuan/ton. For example, the price of 0 zinc ingot from Torch was 24,640 yuan/ton, and that from Huzinc was 25,070 yuan/ton [13]. 3.11 Domestic Refined Zinc Production - In February 2026, the actual production of domestic refined zinc was 470,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.72% and a year - on - year increase of 10.01%. The planned production in March is 490,200 tons [15]. 3.12 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee - On March 9, the processing fees of 50% - grade zinc concentrates in most domestic regions were in the range of 1,400 - 1,600 yuan/metal ton, with some regions having price increases. The import processing fee for 48% - grade zinc concentrate was 30 US dollars/thousand tons [17]. 3.13 Futures Trading Ranking - On March 9, in the SHFE zinc futures trading, in terms of trading volume, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) had the highest trading volume of 49,071 lots with an increase of 12,563 lots. In terms of long positions, Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) had the highest long position of 8,610 lots with an increase of 282 lots. In terms of short positions, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) had the highest short position of 11,063 lots with a decrease of 672 lots [18].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2026-3-10 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，2月官方制造业PMI为50.2%，较上月上升1.1个百分点，重回扩张区间。 中东伊朗局势再度生变，目前霍尔木兹海峡航运基本中断，但特朗普表示战争基本结束，同时G7 明确将使用战略储备，外盘原油出现显著回落。供需端，农膜方面，下游企业开工显著提升，春 耕需求启动，包装膜以刚需为主，由于原料上涨观望情绪较浓，管材方面开工率小幅回升，工地 陆续开工。当前LL交割品现货价7420（+0），基本面整体偏多； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2605合约基差-524，升贴水比例-6.6%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存59.4万吨（-3.3），中性； • 4. 盘面： LL ...