Report Title - Black Sector R & D Report: Iron Ore Monthly Report for August 2025 (dated July 31, 2025) [1][7] Core Viewpoint - The market game intensifies, and iron ore prices remain at a high level [1] Summary by Section 1. Iron Ore Market Data Review - Multiple charts show historical price trends of iron ore, including 62% Platts iron ore price, PB powder price, price spreads between different ore types, and basis and spreads of futures contracts [9][15][17] 2. Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis Supply Side - Import quantity charts show the historical import volumes of iron ore from different regions such as Australia, Brazil, and India, as well as the global shipping volume of iron ore [30][31][36] - A table presents the supply - side data of major iron ore producers from 2020 to 2026E, including RIO, BHP, FMG, etc., along with their year - on - year changes in 2025 and 2026 [57] - Charts display the global shipping volumes of iron ore from different sources like non - Australia and Brazil, non - top four mines, and domestic refined powder production and inventory [62][69][74] Demand Side - Charts show relevant data reflecting iron ore demand, such as real estate new construction area, infrastructure investment growth rate, domestic manufacturing inventory cycle, and iron ore consumption in the steel industry (including domestic and overseas) [85][95][100] - Inventory - related charts show the inventory status of imported iron ore at ports, in trade, and the total inventory of the entire iron - element industrial chain [110][112] 3. Iron Ore Market Outlook - No specific content in the provided text for this part, but the section is named "Iron Ore Market Outlook" [116]

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - Steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern, waiting for the strength of peak - season demand. Considering the limited spot inventory, it is advisable to operate on the low side during price corrections. Pay attention to 3230 yuan for rebar and 3380 yuan for hot - rolled coils [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices generally declined. For example, rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 40 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, and 60 yuan/ton respectively; hot - rolled coil spot prices in these regions all dropped by 60 yuan/ton. Futures prices also decreased significantly, with the rebar 05, 10, and 01 contracts falling by 107 yuan, 108 yuan, and 110 yuan respectively, and the hot - rolled coil 05, 10, and 01 contracts falling by 103 yuan, 110 yuan, and 109 yuan respectively [1] - **Cost and Profit**: The billet price decreased by 80 yuan to 3080 yuan, while the slab price remained unchanged at 3730 yuan. The profits of hot - rolled coils in East China, North China, and South China increased by 48 yuan, and the profit of rebar in South China increased by 38 yuan [1] - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output increased by 2.6 to 242.6, a rise of 1.1%. The output of five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.2 to 867.0, a decline of 0.1%. Rebar output increased by 2.9 to 212.0, a rise of 1.4%, with converter output increasing by 5.4 to 188.0 (a 2.9% increase) and electric - furnace output decreasing by 2.5 to 23.9 (a 9.3% decrease). Hot - rolled coil output decreased by 3.6 to 317.5, a decline of 1.1% [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.2 to 1336.5, a decline of 0.1%. Rebar inventory decreased by 4.6 to 538.6, a decline of 0.9%, while hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 2.3 to 345.2, a rise of 0.7% [1] - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreased by 1.6 to 10.1, a decline of 13.6%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 2.0 to 868.1, a decline of 0.2%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 10.4 to 216.6, a rise of 5.0%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 8.6 to 315.2, a decline of 2.6% [1] Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - In the future, pig iron output in July will remain high, with an average expected to stay around 2.4 million tons per day. Improving steel mill profits will support raw materials, but there is a seesaw effect between coking coal, coke, and iron ore. Unilateral trading is advised to be cautiously long, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on hot - rolled coils and short on iron ore [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of some iron ore varieties changed. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines increased by 4.4 to 793.4, a rise of 0.6%, while the warehouse receipt cost of PB fines decreased by 2.2 to 818.4, a decline of 0.3%. The 09 - contract basis of various iron ore varieties generally increased, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 5.5 to - 43.5, a rise of 11.2%, while the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 4.5 to 23.0, a decline of 16.4% [3] - **Supply**: The 45 - port weekly arrival volume decreased by 130.7 to 2240.5, a decline of 5.5%. The global weekly shipping volume increased by 91.8 to 3200.9, a rise of 3.0%. The national monthly import volume increased by 782.0 to 10594.8, a rise of 8.0% [3] - **Demand**: The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.2 to 242.2, a decline of 0.1%. The weekly average daily port clearance volume of 45 ports decreased by 7.6 to 315.2, a decline of 2.4%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 220.9 to 7190.5, a decline of 3.0%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 336.1 to 8318.4, a decline of 3.9% [3] - **Inventory Changes**: The 45 - port inventory decreased by 104.2 to 13686.23, a decline of 0.8%. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 63.1 to 8885.2, a rise of 0.7%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 1.0 to 21.0, a rise of 5.0% [3] Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - **Coke**: Speculative trading is advised to be cautiously long, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on coke and short on iron ore, while avoiding exchange intervention risks. - **Coking Coal**: Speculative trading is advised to be cautiously long, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on coking coal and short on iron ore, also avoiding exchange intervention risks [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged at 1296 yuan/ton, while the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke increased by 30 yuan/ton to 1420 yuan/ton. The coke 09 and 01 contracts increased by 44 yuan and 50 yuan respectively. The coking profit calculated by the Steel Union decreased by 11 yuan/week [4] - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1260 yuan/ton, while the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1155 yuan/ton. The coking coal 09 contract decreased by 4 yuan, and the 01 contract increased by 18 yuan. The sample coal mine profit increased by 27 yuan/week, a rise of 8.3% [4] - **Supply**: The weekly average daily output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.4 to 64.6, a rise of 0.6%, and the weekly average daily output of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.1 to 47.2, a rise of 0.1%. The weekly output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased, with raw coal output decreasing by 4.3 to 862.3, a decline of 0.5%, and clean coal output decreasing by 1.5 to 441.0, a decline of 0.3% [4] - **Demand**: The weekly pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.2 to 242.2, a decline of 0.1%. The demand for coke is mainly reflected in the relatively high pig iron output, and the demand for coking coal is also supported by the slightly increased coking plant operation rate [4] - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory decreased by 7.4 to 918.2, a decline of 0.8%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 7.4 to 80.1, a decline of 8.5%, while the coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 1.0 to 640.0, a rise of 0.2%. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 25.5 to 132.6, a decline of 16.1%, and the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 56.3 to 985.4, a rise of 6.1% [4] - **Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes**: The coke supply - demand gap increased by 0.6 to - 5.5, a rise of 10.2% [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Domestic macro - policies are set to continue and increase efforts, with proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies to be implemented. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in July, and the market is speculating about a possible September rate cut [1]. - In the long - term, A - shares offer good investment value. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 may bring higher returns due to policy support, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 have defensive value [2][11]. - Gold and silver are likely to continue to fluctuate. Although there are long - term drivers, the high price makes upward movement hesitant [3][19]. - International oil prices have risen for three consecutive days. However, the economic data improvement may be overestimated, and attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [4][13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1当日主要新闻关注 - **International News**: The initial estimate of the annualized quarterly growth rate of the US real GDP in Q2 was 3%, significantly exceeding the expected 2.4%. The annualized quarterly growth rate of the core PCE price index was 2.5%, down from the previous 3.5% but higher than the expected 2.3% [6]. - **Domestic News**: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met with the board delegation of the US - China Business Council, emphasizing the need to establish communication channels and maintain stable Sino - US economic and trade relations [7]. - **Industry News**: The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association plans to strictly control new production capacity of copper smelting and alumina, and guide the rational layout of new capacity for silicon, lithium, and magnesium [8]. 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - The S&P 500 decreased by 0.12%, the European STOXX 50 increased by 0.06%, the FTSE China A50 futures increased by 0.13%, the US dollar index increased by 1.06%, ICE Brent crude oil increased by 0.98%, and gold and silver prices declined [9]. 3.3主要品种早盘评论 - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: The US three major indices showed mixed performance. The previous trading day saw index differentiation, with small - cap stocks weakening. The bank sector has performed well since 2025, and it is expected that the proportion of long - term funds in the capital market will gradually increase. A - shares have high long - term investment value [2][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rebounded significantly. The central bank increased open - market operations, and the short - term Shibor mostly declined. Overseas, the US GDP growth exceeded expectations, and the Fed kept interest rates unchanged. Domestically, industrial enterprise profits improved, and the IMF raised China's GDP growth forecast. Short - term Treasury bond futures prices may stabilize [12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices rose for three consecutive days. The US economic growth in Q2 exceeded expectations, but the improvement may be overestimated. US crude oil inventories increased, and attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [4][13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell 0.9% at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants increased slightly, while the overall operating load of methanol plants decreased. Coastal methanol inventories continued to rise, and the short - term trend is mainly bullish [14][15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures fluctuated during the day. Spot prices were stable. In the short - term, they will fluctuate widely, and the market is divided. The focus is on the process of fundamental repair [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures rebounded and then declined. The summer maintenance led to supply contraction, and inventories decreased. The short - term focus is on policy implementation and fundamental digestion speed [17]. - **Rubber**: The recent rainfall in the producing areas affected rubber tapping, supporting raw material prices. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the short - term trend is expected to continue to correct [18]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices continued to decline. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in July, and there were uncertainties about a September rate cut. The US economic data showed resilience, and the long - term drivers of gold still provided support, but the high price made upward movement difficult [3][19]. - **Copper**: Copper prices closed lower at night. The US only imposed a 50% tariff on copper products, exempting refined copper. The processing fee for concentrates is low, and downstream demand is generally stable. Copper prices may fluctuate in a range [20][21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices closed lower at night. The processing fee for concentrates has been rising. Domestic demand shows mixed performance, and zinc prices may fluctuate widely in the short - term [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate prices rose due to mining qualification issues. The demand in July continued to be strong, but the inventory increased. The short - term focus is on warehouse receipts, and the medium - term does not have the basis for a reversal [23]. - **Black Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported by strong production momentum of steel mills, but the global iron ore shipment has decreased recently. The inventory at ports is decreasing rapidly, and the medium - term supply - demand imbalance pressure is large. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish [24]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is gradually emerging, but the inventory is decreasing. Steel exports are facing challenges, but billet exports are strong. The short - term market is expected to be volatile and bullish [25]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The daily average pig iron production decreased slightly, and the coke production improved. The inventory of coking coal in steel mills and coking plants increased, while that in coal mines decreased. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish after adjustment [26][27]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The US soybean growth is good, and the futures price is under pressure. The domestic protein meal price is supported by concerns about soybean supply and the rise of rapeseed meal price [28]. - **Oils and Fats**: Soybean and palm oil futures were weak at night, while rapeseed oil fluctuated and closed up. The production of Malaysian palm oil increased, and the export decreased. The market is concerned about trade trends, which support the oil and fat sector [29]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index fluctuated, and the 10 - contract closed down 0.45%. The spot freight rate has begun to loosen, and the 10 - contract is at a deep discount, which provides some support. The market will gradually shift to the off - season freight rate game [30].

Report's Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint - For the steel sector, after the Politburo meeting, the relevant positive factors have been fully anticipated by the market, leading to a decline in futures prices. In the short - term, the steel market is in a consumption off - season, with demand expected to weaken further and inventory likely to rise. For the iron ore sector, the current high iron - water production has limited room for further increase, and the high supply and relatively high port trade - mine inventory create downward pressure on futures prices [2][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Situation**: After the Politburo meeting, the futures prices of threaded steel and hot - rolled coil rose and then fell. In terms of supply and demand, last week, the production and apparent demand of threaded steel increased, the factory inventory decreased for the second consecutive week, and the social inventory increased for the second consecutive week. The total inventory of the five major varieties increased, and the apparent demand declined. In the summer high - temperature season, demand is expected to weaken further, and inventory is likely to rise. The market's focus will shift to the peak - season consumption from August to September [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures prices decreased with a reduction in positions, driven by the departure of long - position holders [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term short selling can be considered during the rebound of futures prices, with timely stop - profit and stop - loss. Avoid chasing short positions rashly [2]. - **Data Highlights**: The closing price of the threaded - steel main contract was 3315 yuan/ton, down 0.96% from the previous day; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3483 yuan/ton, down 0.57% from the previous day. The 247 - steel - mill blast - furnace operating rate was 83.46%, and the average daily iron - water output was 242.23 million tons, down 0.09% from the previous week [2]. 2. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Currently, the profitability of steel mills is fair, but the iron - water production is under great pressure to decline. The global iron - ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally, and the future arrival volume is expected to remain high. Although the port inventory is slowly decreasing, the high port trade - mine inventory exists. After the conclusion of the Sino - US trade negotiations and the Politburo meeting, the positive factors have been released, and there is significant downward pressure on futures prices [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures prices have stabilized in the short - term, the oscillation range has narrowed, and the direction is to be determined, expected to follow the trend of threaded steel [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term short selling can be considered during the rebound of futures prices, with timely stop - profit and stop - loss. Conservative investors can stay on the sidelines [4]. - **Data Highlights**: The settlement price of the DCE iron - ore main contract was 789 yuan/dry ton, down 1.13% from the previous day. The Australian iron - ore shipment was 1638.7 million tons, up 16.64% from the previous week, and the Brazilian iron - ore shipment was 731.6 million tons, down 12.19% from the previous week [4][5]. 3. Industry News - The China Coking Industry Association Market Committee decided to raise the coke price starting from July 31. The China Metal Materials Circulation Association issued an initiative to resist "involution - style competition" in the steel circulation industry. The Xingtai market plans to raise the coke price. Gansu Energy Chemical's Wangjiashan Coal Mine No. 1 Well will resume production. The Ulanqab Industrial Alliance and the Ulanqab Ferroalloy Industry Association called on the industry to balance interests and resist involution. Affected by Typhoon "Zhujiecao", shipping and some wood processing in the Yangtze River's Jiangsu section have been suspended [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents the market trends and outlooks for various commodities on July 31, 2025, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity's trend is affected by factors such as macro - economic policies, geopolitical events, and supply - demand relationships [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: FOMC's decline releases hawkish expectations, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][5][10] - **Silver**: Experiences a high - level decline, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][5][10] Base Metals - **Copper**: The implementation of US copper import tariffs puts pressure on prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][12][14] - **Zinc**: Shows a narrow - range oscillation, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][15][17] - **Lead**: An increase in inventory puts pressure on prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][18][19] - **Tin**: Ranges within an interval, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][21][25] - **Aluminum**: Experiences a slight oscillation; Alumina's price weakens; Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. Aluminum's trend strength is 0, alumina's is - 1, and casting aluminum alloy's is 0 [2][27][29] - **Nickel**: Macroeconomic expectations determine the direction, and fundamentals limit the elasticity, with a trend strength of 0 [2][30][34] - **Stainless Steel**: Macroeconomic sentiment dominates the margin, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired, with a trend strength of 0 [2][30][34] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Has a wide - range oscillation, and the mine - end disturbance has not materialized, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][35][37] - **Industrial Silicon**: Sentiment weakens, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][38][40] - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][38][40] Energy - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, shows a relatively strong oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][41] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The sentiment is realized, with a wide - range oscillation. Both have a trend strength of 0 [2][52][55] - **Power Coal**: Daily consumption recovers, and the price stabilizes with an oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][57][60] - **Fuel Oil**: The upward trend continues, and it remains strong in the short - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil's futures price shows a relatively strong oscillation, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to rise [2][4][52] Chemicals - **PTA**: Supported by cost, with a positive spread in monthly contracts [2] - **MEG**: The unilateral trend remains weak, with a reverse spread in monthly contracts [2] - **Rubber**: Oscillates [2][32] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Weak in the short - term, but the downside space narrows [2][34] - **Asphalt**: Follows the strong upward trend of crude oil with small - step increases [2][36] - **LLDPE**: The trend still faces pressure [2][38] - **PP**: The spot price oscillates with light trading volume [2][39] - **Caustic Soda**: Attention should be paid to delivery pressure [2][40] - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillates weakly [2][41] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet remains stable [2][43] - **Methanol**: Oscillates under pressure [2][44] - **Urea**: The pressure gradually increases [2][46] - **Styrene**: Profits are compressed [2][48] - **Soda Ash**: There are few changes in the spot market [4][49] - **PVC**: Weakly oscillates in the short - term [4][50] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Supported in the short - term by the positive sentiment of crude oil and macro - economy [4][59] - **Soybean Oil**: Oscillates at a high level, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade progress [4][59] - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans close lower, limiting the rebound of domestic soybean meal [4][61] - **Soybean**: Oscillates weakly [4][61] - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market [4][63] - **Sugar**: Oscillates within an interval [4][65] - **Cotton**: The sentiment cools down, and Zhengzhou cotton futures decline [4][66] - **Eggs**: The spot price weakens [4][68] - **Hogs**: Attention should be paid to whether the early - month spot expectations can be realized [4][69] - **Peanuts**: The old crop has support at the bottom [4][70] Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Hold 10 short positions [4][53] - **Short - fiber and Bottle - chip**: Oscillate in the short - term [4][56] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillates at a low level with limited upward momentum [4][57] - **Pure Benzene**: Oscillates relatively strongly [4][58] - **Log**: Oscillates repeatedly [2][61]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern, waiting for the strength of peak - season demand. Consider buying on dips due to low spot inventory. Focus on 3230 yuan for rebar and 3380 yuan for hot - rolled coils [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Unilateral trading suggests cautious long positions, and arbitrage recommends going long on hot - rolled coils and short on iron ore. The iron - making water output in July will remain high, and steel mill profits will support raw materials, but there is a seesaw effect between coking coal, coke, and iron ore [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, speculative trading advises cautious long - chasing, and arbitrage suggests going long on coke and short on iron ore. For coking coal, speculative trading also advises cautious long - chasing, and arbitrage recommends going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices generally declined. For example, rebar spot prices in East China dropped from 3430 yuan/ton to 3390 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China fell from 3500 yuan/ton to 3440 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 3080 yuan/ton, while plate billet prices remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. Profits from hot - rolled coils in East China increased by 48 yuan/ton to 333 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - Daily average iron - making water output increased by 2.6 to 242.6, a 1.1% increase. Five major steel products' production decreased by 1.2 to 867.0, a 0.1% decrease. Five major steel products' inventory decreased by 1.2 to 1336.5, a 0.1% decrease [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building materials trading volume decreased by 1.6 to 10.1, a 13.6% decrease. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 2.0 to 868.1, a 0.2% decrease [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt cost of some iron ore varieties changed. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder decreased by 2.2 to 818.4 yuan/ton, a 0.3% decrease [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) decreased by 130.7 to 2240.5 tons, a 5.5% decrease, while the global shipping volume (weekly) increased by 91.8 to 3200.9 tons, a 3.0% increase [3]. Demand - The daily average iron - making water output of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 0.2 to 242.2 tons, a 0.1% decrease. The 45 - port daily average desilting volume (weekly) decreased by 7.6 to 315.2 tons, a 2.4% decrease [3]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 104.2 to 13686.23 tons, a 0.8% decrease, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) increased by 63.1 to 8885.2 tons, a 0.7% increase [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of quasi - first - class wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port increased by 30 yuan/ton to 1420 yuan/ton, a 2.2% increase. The 09 - contract price of coke increased by 44 yuan/ton to 1677 yuan/ton, a 2.7% increase [4]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt) decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1155 yuan/ton, a 1.7% decrease. The 09 - contract price of coking coal decreased by 4 yuan/ton to 1117 yuan/ton, a 0.3% decrease [4]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.4 to 64.6 tons, a 0.6% increase. The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 4.3 to 862.3 tons, a 0.5% decrease [4]. Demand - The iron - making water output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2 to 242.2 tons, a 0.1% decrease. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.4 to 64.6 tons, a 0.6% increase [4]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory decreased by 7.4 to 918.2 tons, a 0.8% decrease. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 56.3 to 985.4 tons, a 6.1% increase [4]. Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap increased by 0.6 to - 5.5 tons, a 10.2% increase [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 30, the main iron ore futures contract 2509 showed a weakening trend, closing at 789.0 yuan/ton, down 0.44%. The current price trend is mainly affected by macro - sentiment. After the Politburo's expectations are realized, the speculation sentiment may fade, and the Sino - US negotiation setbacks put pressure on the upper limit of ore prices. However, the high production of steel mills provides continuous support. Therefore, the ore price is expected to consolidate at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to the results of the third round of Sino - US negotiations [7][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Market Review - On July 30, the main iron ore futures 2509 contract opened higher and then oscillated downward, closing at 789.0 yuan/ton, down 0.44%. The prices, trading volumes, and positions of other black - series futures contracts such as RB2510, HC2510, and SS2509 also had corresponding changes [7][5]. - The spot market: On July 30, the main iron ore outer - market quotes decreased by 0.5 - 1 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port decreased by 5 - 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. Technically, the daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract continued to decline, and the daily MACD indicator formed a death cross [9]. 3.1.2 Future Outlook - News: The Politburo meeting on July 30 mentioned deepening reforms, promoting the construction of a unified national market, and optimizing market competition order. The Sino - US third - round negotiation encountered setbacks, raising market risk - aversion sentiment [10][11]. - Fundamentals: The Australian iron ore shipments rebounded last week, and Brazilian shipments were basically the same as the previous week. The overall shipments recovered after the seasonal decline. The current weekly shipments of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil are at a medium level of about 27 million tons. The arrivals last week dropped to a relatively low level of 22.405 million tons. Considering the shipping time, the arrivals may oscillate at this level until mid - August and then rise again. On the demand side, the downstream steel demand is in a seasonal decline, and the molten iron output has slightly decreased but remains above 2.4 million tons. The profitability rate of steel enterprises has increased again, and steel enterprises maintain high production, which is expected to slow down the production - cut process and support the ore price [11]. 3.2 Industry News - On July 23, the CPC Central Committee held a symposium for non - Communist Party personages, emphasizing the need to do a good job in the second - half economic work, including stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, and boosting consumption [13]. - On July 30, the China Coking Industry Association's Market Committee held a meeting. Due to factors such as the sharp rise in coal prices, high demand for coke from steel mills, and the lag in coke price increases, the participating enterprises decided to raise the coke price starting from July 31. The prices of tamping wet - quenched coke, tamping dry - quenched coke, and top - charged coke were increased by 50 yuan/ton, 55 yuan/ton, and 75 yuan/ton respectively [14]. - The Politburo meeting on July 30 decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October, mainly to discuss the work report and the suggestions for formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan. The meeting also analyzed the economic situation and deployed the second - half economic work, including deepening reforms, expanding opening - up, and preventing and resolving risks [14]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts related to the iron ore and steel industry, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade, low - grade ores and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot and the September contract, the shipments from Brazil and Australia, the arrivals at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization, the trading volume at main ports, the inventory available days of steel mills, and other data [20][23][27].

铁矿石：经贸会谈符合预期 矿价短期区间运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 晨报 铁矿石 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 价格：价格区间震荡偏强运行。i2509 合约价格区间 785 元/吨~810 元/吨。外盘 FE09 合约 价格区间 101~104 美金/吨。 逻辑：昨日成材增仓上行，焦煤触底回升，铁矿石价格相对平稳。中美第三轮经济贸易会 谈结果基本符合市场预期，美国对等关税（24%暂停）+基础关税（10%）以及我方反制关税措施 均展期 90 天，短期关税影响将进一步弱化。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, against the backdrop of improved macro - expectations and robust demand, iron ore prices showed a strong upward trend. The supply was relatively stable, with an increase in shipments mainly from Australia and a decrease in arrivals. The demand was firm, although the pig iron output decreased slightly this period. Considering the high profit per ton of steel, it may remain at a high level in the short term. There is a risk of a decline in pig iron output in the northern region in mid - to late August. In terms of valuation, after the narrowing of the basis of the main contract, the unilateral driving force has weakened, so it is not advisable to chase the rising price and participation should be cautious [8]. Summary According to the Directory Part 1: Fundamental Analysis and Conclusion Price - In July, iron ore spot prices fluctuated and rebounded, with increases ranging from 60 - 85 yuan. For example, the price of Karara fines increased by 72 yuan, PB fines by 67 yuan, etc. As of July 25, the Platts 62% index closed at $102.6, up $2.4 week - on - week, equivalent to about 856 yuan in RMB at the exchange rate of 7.17. The optimal deliverable was NM fines, with a latest quote of about 775 yuan/ton and a converted warehouse receipt (factory warehouse) of about 800 yuan/ton. The 09 iron ore contract was at par with the spot. The sub - optimal deliverable was brbf fines [5]. Inventory - The iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China increased compared to the previous period but was lower than the same period last year. As of now, the total inventory at 47 ports is 14,395.68 tons, an increase of 14 tons compared to the previous period, a decrease of 1,215 tons compared to the beginning of the year, and 1,295 tons lower than the same period last year. It is predicted that the port inventory at 47 ports may decrease slightly in the next period [5]. Supply - **Shipments**: The total global iron ore shipments in this period were 3,200.9 tons, an increase of 91.8 tons compared to the previous period. The total shipments of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2,677.8 tons, an increase of 198.8 tons. Australian shipments were 1,793.5 tons, an increase of 222.3 tons, and the volume shipped to China was 1,489.4 tons, an increase of 104.0 tons. Brazilian shipments were 884.3 tons, a decrease of 23.5 tons [6]. - **Arrivals**: From July 21 - 27, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 2,319.7 tons, a decrease of 192.1 tons compared to the previous period; the total arrivals at 45 ports were 2,240.5 tons, a decrease of 130.7 tons; and the total arrivals at six northern ports were 1,157.3 tons, a decrease of 231.9 tons [6]. Demand - The average daily pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills decreased slightly this period, with an average daily output of 242.23 tons/day, a decrease of 0.21 tons/day compared to last week. According to the blast furnace start - up and shutdown plan, the pig iron output may decline slightly in the next period. As of July 25, the long - process cash - inclusive cost of rebar in East China was 3,071 yuan, with a profit of about 328.82 yuan, and the profit of hot - rolled coil was about 329 yuan. In the electric furnace segment, the flat - rate electricity cost of the electric furnace in East China was about 3,359 yuan, and the valley - rate electricity cost was about 3,228 yuan. The flat - rate electricity profit of rebar was about - 59 yuan, and the valley - rate electricity profit was 72 yuan [7]. Part 2: Data Sorting Iron Ore Warehouse Receipt Price - As of July 25, the optimal deliverable was Newman fines, with a converted warehouse receipt price of 800 yuan/ton, and the sub - optimal deliverable was BRBF with a price of 810 yuan/ton [13]. Iron Ore Inter - period Spread - As of July 25, the 9 - 1 spread of iron ore closed at 29 (- 3) [16]. Iron Ore Import Profit No specific data analysis provided. High - and Low - grade Price Difference No specific data analysis provided. Premium Index - As of July 24, the premium index of 62.5% lump ore was 0.1765 (+ 0.0055), and the premium index of 65% pellet was 15 (+ 0.85) [26]. Brand Premium (Discount) and Inventory - Various data on the inventory and premium (discount) of different brands of iron ore such as Mac fines, PB fines, etc. are presented in the form of charts, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [28]. Steel Mill Sintered Fine Ore Inventory - As of July 25, the inventory of imported sintered fine ore of 64 sample steel mills was 1,293, a decrease of 62.0 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.03%. The inventory of domestic sintered fine ore was 8, a decrease of 0.7 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.85%. The average inventory days of imported ore decreased by 1.0 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.00% [31]. Steel Mill Imported Ore Inventory, Consumption, and Inventory - to - Sales Ratio - As of July 25, the inventory of imported ore of steel mills was 8,885.2, an increase of 63.06 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month increase of 0.71%. The daily consumption of imported ore was 301.1, a decrease of 0.15 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of - 0.05%. The inventory - to - sales ratio of imported ore was 29.5, an increase of 0.22 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month increase of 0.75% [33]. Port Inventory and Berthing Vessels - Various data on port inventory (including total inventory, Australian ore inventory, Brazilian ore inventory, etc.) and the number of berthing vessels at 45 ports are presented in the form of charts, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [36]. Port Inventory by Ore Type - As of July 25, the inventory of imported port lump ore was 1,683, an increase of 87 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month increase of 5.47%. The inventory of imported port pellet ore was 390, a decrease of 29 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of - 6.93%. The inventory of imported port iron concentrate was 1,082, an increase of 1 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month increase of 0.09%. The inventory of imported port coarse powder was 10,636, a decrease of 54 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of - 0.50% [39]. Port Ore Removal - The port ore removal data from 2020 - 2025 are presented in a table, showing the ore removal volume of each month in different years [42]. Iron Ore in Transit at Sea - The data on iron ore in transit at sea from 2022 - 2025 are presented in the form of charts, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [45]. Iron Ore Import Quantity - The import volume data of iron ore from different countries (Australia, Brazil, South Africa, India, etc.) from 2020 - 2025 are presented in the form of charts, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [48][49][50]. Australian Iron Ore Shipment Volume - As of July 25, the volume of Australian iron ore shipped to China was 1,489, an increase of 104 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month increase of 7.51%. The total Australian shipments were 1,794, an increase of 222.3 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month increase of 14.15%. The proportion of shipments to China was 83.04%, a decrease of 5.1% compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of - 5.82% [58]. Global Iron Ore Shipment No specific data analysis provided. Brazilian Iron Ore Shipment Volume - As of July 25, the volume of Brazilian iron ore shipped globally was 884, a decrease of 24 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of - 2.59% [65]. Shipments of the Four Major Mines - As of July 25, the shipment volume of Rio Tinto was 490, an increase of 33 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month increase of 7.15%. The shipment volume of BHP was 496, an increase of 36 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month increase of 7.89%. The shipment volume of Vale was 639, a decrease of 47 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of - 6.83%. The shipment volume of FMG was 364, an increase of 85 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month increase of 30.43%. The total shipment volume of the four major mines was 1,989, an increase of 107 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month increase of 5.69% [66]. Iron Ore Arrivals - As of July 25, the arrivals at 45 ports were 2,241, a decrease of 131 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of - 5.5%. The arrivals at northern ports were 1,157, a decrease of 232 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of - 16.7% [73]. Freight Rates - The freight rate data of iron ore from Brazil's Tubarao to Qingdao (BCI - C3) and from Western Australia to Qingdao (BCI - C5) from 2020 - 2025 are presented in the form of charts, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [75]. Domestic Iron Ore Production (Estimated) - The estimated domestic iron ore production data from 2017 - 2025 are presented in a table, showing the production volume of each month in different years [77]. Steel Mill Fine Ore Daily Consumption and Capacity Utilization - As of July 25, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.8, a decrease of 0.08 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of - 0.09%. The average daily pig iron output was 242.2, a decrease of 0.21 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month decrease of - 0.09%. The daily consumption of imported sintered fine ore was 59.1, an increase of 0.88 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month increase of 1.51%. The daily consumption of domestic sintered fine ore was 8.4, an increase of 0.04 compared to July 18, with a month - on - month increase of 0.48% [79]. Pig Iron Production - The daily pig iron production data from 2016 - 2025 are presented in the form of charts and tables, including the data from the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Iron and Steel Association. The year - on - year growth rate of 2024 compared to 2023 and 2025 compared to 2024 are also provided [86]. Global Pig Iron Production - The pig iron production data of different regions (EU 28 countries, Japan, South Korea, India, etc.) and the global total from 2020 - 2025 are presented in the form of charts, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [89]. Global (Excluding China) Pig Iron Production - As of July 25, the pig iron production data of regions outside China from 2017 - 2025 are presented in a table, including the month - on - month and year - on - year growth rates [94].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market's supply - demand pattern has changed. Steel mills' production is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of ore has started to decline. However, steel mills' profitability is good, and there is still resilience in ore demand, which supports the ore price. The arrival of ore at domestic ports has decreased month - on - month, but it is expected to bottom out and rebound. The supply of ore is expected to increase due to the continuous increase in overseas miners' shipments and the recovery of domestic ore production. The ore price has stopped falling and rebounded again, but the market fundamentals are expected to weaken, and the upward driving force is limited. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a high - level oscillating trend, and the performance of finished products should be monitored [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating with a slight upward bias. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of the MA10 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is stable, and the ore price is oscillating at a high level [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed. Steel mills' production is weakly stable, and ore terminal consumption is falling. But steel mills' good profitability provides support for ore demand. The arrival of ore at domestic ports has decreased, but it will rebound according to shipping schedules. Overseas miners' shipments are increasing, and domestic ore production is recovering, so the ore supply is expected to rise. The ore price has rebounded due to demand resilience and improved market sentiment, but the fundamentals are expected to weaken, and the upward drive is limited. The ore price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the performance of finished products should be noted [3]