Group 1: Employment Trends - In 2024, the average annual salary for urban non-private sector employees is 124,000 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 6.8 percentage points since 2021, now at a growth rate of 2.8%[3] - Employment is shifting from high-salary industries to sectors with shorter working hours and higher hourly wages, indicating a trend towards "anti-involution" since 2021[4] - The transportation and service industries have seen a reduction in weekly working hours by 4.2 and 3.6 hours respectively, while hourly wages increased by 3.9 and 3.6 yuan/hour, suggesting improved job attractiveness[4] Group 2: Regional Wage Convergence - From 2019 to 2023, the wage growth in the eastern region was 7.5%, compared to 7.1% in the central and western regions, with the gap narrowing from 0.8 percentage points in 2019 to 0.5 percentage points in 2023[5] - The wage growth in the central and western regions has shown resilience, with the central region's wage growth remaining stable at around 7.1%[5] - Employment in the service sector is increasingly migrating to the central and western regions, with the proportion of employees in accommodation and retail sectors decreasing from 20.8 and 10.1 percentage points below the eastern region to 18.2 and 9 percentage points respectively[6] Group 3: Private and Flexible Employment - The average salary growth for private sector employees is lower than that of non-private sector employees, but certain sectors like education and retail services have seen higher growth rates of 8.9% and 5.3% respectively[7] - The concentration of small and medium enterprises in the service sector has led to better salary growth in private units compared to non-private units[10] - New flexible employment roles, such as ride-hailing drivers and delivery personnel, have higher average monthly salaries of 10,506 yuan, significantly above traditional employees' 8,910 yuan, despite longer working hours[10]

Industrial Production - Industrial production remains stable, with blast furnace operating rates showing resilience, down 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to 2.1% [1][4] - Chemical production is marginally improving, with soda ash, PTA, and polyester filament operating rates increasing by 0.1, 0.7, and 0.8 percentage points year-on-year to -4.7%, 5.4%, and 4.1% respectively [1][17] - The operating rate of automotive semi-steel tires has slightly decreased, down 0.2 percentage points year-on-year to -2.6% [1][17] Construction Industry - Construction activity has weakened, with significant declines in grinding and cement shipment rates, down 1.1 percentage points to -4.6% and 1 percentage point to -8% year-on-year respectively [1][29] - The asphalt operating rate has notably decreased, down 8.8 percentage points year-on-year to -2% [1][41] Downstream Demand - New housing transactions have shown marginal improvement, with the average daily transaction area increasing by 14.2% year-on-year to 0.9%, particularly in first and second-tier cities [2][53] - Automotive sales continue to strengthen, with retail and wholesale volumes increasing by 15.4% to 28.5% and 21.4% to 22.1% year-on-year respectively [2][80] Price Trends - Prices of agricultural and industrial products have generally declined, with pork, vegetables, fruits, and eggs decreasing by 0.2%, 1.1%, 1.5%, and 1.3% respectively [2][99] - The South China industrial product price index has decreased by 1% week-on-week, with energy and chemical prices down 1.3% and metal prices down 0.6% [2][111] Transportation and Logistics - National freight volumes have rebounded, with rail freight volume and highway truck traffic increasing by 0.6% to 1% and 2.1% to 1% year-on-year respectively [2][63] - Port cargo throughput has also improved, up 2.1% year-on-year to 5.4%, while container throughput has slightly decreased by 0.5% to 6.1% [2][63] Consumer Behavior - Movie attendance and box office revenue have increased by 9.5% to -37.1% and 8% to -38.4% year-on-year respectively [2][80] - The overall consumer sentiment appears to be improving, as indicated by the increase in various consumption metrics [2][80]

Group 1 - The A-share market is showing positive changes, with overall profit growth turning positive and free cash flow yield steadily increasing, driven by policy effects and technological innovation trends [1] - The ongoing issuance of the Penghua Cash Flow ETF provides investors with a strong tool to seize market opportunities [1] - Free cash flow is a crucial indicator in financial analysis and value assessment, indicating a shift from scale expansion to high-quality operations among companies [1] Group 2 - The Penghua Cash Flow ETF tracks the CSI All Index Free Cash Flow Index, which selects 100 companies with high free cash flow rates, reflecting the performance of companies with strong cash flow generation capabilities [2] - The index has a large-cap value style, with over 40% of its constituent stocks having a market capitalization exceeding 500 billion [2] - The index has shown outstanding historical performance, with returns of 32.33% and 112.92% over the past three and five years, respectively, compared to the CSI 300's returns of -3.95% and 0.07% [2] Group 3 - Penghua Fund has been an innovator in the index investment field, expanding its ETF product layout while enhancing services in strategy development, portfolio optimization, and risk management [3] - The launch of the Penghua Cash Flow ETF is a continuation of its strategy in the Smart Beta space, reinforcing its position as a provider of index investment solutions [3] - The competition in the ETF market is intensifying, and leading institutions with comprehensive research and investment capabilities are expected to continue to excel [3]

Macro Analysis - In April 2025, fiscal revenue and expenditure improved, with notable highlights including accelerated fiscal spending, particularly in infrastructure-related areas [2] - Fiscal revenue showed marginal improvement compared to Q1, with tax revenue recovering while non-tax revenue growth slowed [2] - The land market showed signs of improvement, supported by the issuance of new special bonds, leading to significant enhancements in government fund income and expenditure [2] Coal Industry - In 2024, coal companies are expected to see a decline in operating revenue and a decrease in operating cash flow, with significant net outflows in investment cash flow [3] - Financing cash flow continues to show net outflows, with high leverage levels and increasing debt, yet overall debt repayment capacity remains strong [3] - Profitability for coal companies in 2025 is anticipated to be constrained, but there is still support for overall profitability, with relatively ample operating cash flow [3] Bond Market - In April 2025, the total bond custody volume saw a slight increase month-on-month, with all types of bonds showing net increases [4] - Policy banks significantly reduced their bond custody volume, while other major institutions in the bond market increased their holdings [4] - The balance of repurchase bonds decreased seasonally, leading to a decline in the bond market leverage ratio [4] Restaurant Industry - The restaurant industry is expected to recover, with a gradual increase in market activity observed in Q1 2025 compared to the entire year of 2024 [5] - The number of restaurant outlets has increased, particularly in first-tier cities, driven by policy stimuli that are likely to enhance demand [5] - There is a notable trend towards affordable dining options, with high opening rates for essential and low-cost categories, indicating a continued focus on supply chain-related stocks [5] Power AI Industry - Vertiv plans to launch an 800 VDC power product series in the second half of 2026, supporting NVIDIA's computing platform [6] - This announcement aligns with market trends regarding AI data center power solutions, further validating the HVDC industry trajectory [6] - Recommended stocks to watch include Zhongheng Electric, Hewei Electric, Shenghong Co., Sifang Co., Magmi Tech, Kehua Data, and Keda [6] Transportation Industry - Recent easing of trade tensions between the US and China is expected to sustain the recovery in container shipping demand [9] - The average freight rates for US West and East Coast routes have increased significantly, with rates reaching 3091 and 4069 USD/FEU, respectively, reflecting a rise of 31.7% and 22.0% [9] Real Estate Company - Huafa Co. maintains stable dividend payouts while being cautious in investment and construction, with a notable decline in settlement resources [10] - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is estimated at 820 million, 960 million, and 1.12 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 17, 15, and 12 times [10] - As a local leading state-owned enterprise, Huafa Co. has a solid financial position and focuses on quality land reserves in core cities, maintaining an "increase" rating [10]

长城基金廖瀚博认为，目前资本市场进入了国家层面非常重视的阶段，政策在持续出台给予呵护，这是 对资本市场的极大利好。落到投资上，在新质生产力发展的过程中，可积极关注由需求增长驱动的投资 机会，比如AI、人形机器人等细分领域。 廖瀚博在投资领域耕耘多年，具备卖方和买方研究双重背景，研究覆盖了汽车、电器、新能源、交运等 多个行业，积累了扎实的投研能力，并通过自我进化、能力拓圈，形成了"泛制造+核心消费+核心科 技"能力圈。 "我不会刻意追逐市场热点，而是在市场关注度较低的领域中挖掘有变化、有成长性且被低估被忽略的 品种，在深入研究后买入持有，耐心等待成长的兑现和估值的回归。"廖瀚博介绍。 回顾2025年一季度，A股市场震荡上行，科技板块和制造板块涨幅领先，其中代表性板块是人形机器人 和国产算力。DeepSeek的出现使大模型平权成为可能，国内云厂商加大资本开支，带动国产算力，特 别是AIDC相关产业的景气提升。海外某车企宣布2025年开始量产人形机器人，国内机器人厂商开始崭 露头角，机器人产业真正进入发展的元年。 展望后市，廖瀚博表示，将重点关注两大方向：一是潜在需求增长的细分领域，关注行业卡位较好、竞 争壁垒较高 ...

Core Insights - The report suggests that the easing of the US-China tariff friction creates a favorable window for bullish investments, recommending a dual focus on "technology growth + consumer recovery" [1][16] - The report highlights that the market's response to tariff impacts has been relatively quick and fully priced in compared to previous trade tensions, indicating a more resilient market sentiment [13][12] Market Overview - Following the easing of tariff tensions, the equity market has shown signs of recovery, with major indices surpassing their levels from early April. The Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and the Wind All A Index have all exceeded their April 2 levels as of May 16 [4][9] - The report notes that the convertible bond market has rebounded quickly, with the median price recovering from 115 yuan on April 7 to 120.13 yuan, indicating improved valuation attractiveness compared to early April [14][15] Investment Strategy - The report recommends prioritizing convertible bonds with lower absolute prices, especially those with high export revenue exposure, to hedge against potential volatility in the market [16][18] - It emphasizes that the themes of self-sufficiency and domestic demand are strong investment lines, alongside the potential resurgence of investment opportunities in humanoid robots, AI, and low-altitude economy sectors as market risk appetite improves [1][18] Sector Performance - The report observes a divergence in performance between large-cap and small-cap indices, with large-cap indices performing better in the wake of tariff easing, while small-cap indices experienced some pullback [6][7] - The transportation sector has led gains in the wake of tariff easing, with financial sectors and domestic demand-related stocks also showing strong performance [6]

Market Overview - On May 19, 2025, the market experienced a slight decline with a trading volume of 1.12 trillion, down approximately 70 billion from the previous trading day[1] - The automotive, machinery, and pharmaceutical sectors saw the largest gains, while beauty care, finance, food and beverage, and oil sectors faced the most significant losses[1] - Despite more than half of the stocks rising, the gains were primarily in small-cap stocks, indicating a trend of short-term speculative trading[1] Sector Performance - The automotive sector's rise was mainly driven by the completion of the AEBS mandatory national standard, with gains concentrated in small-cap companies[2] - Similar short-term trading characteristics were observed in the chemical and transportation sectors, while the technology sector showed clearer long-term logic[2][3] Index Performance - On May 16, the three major indices experienced slight declines: the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.4%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.07%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.19%[4] Capital Flow - On May 16, net inflows were recorded at 5.914 billion in the Shanghai Stock Exchange and 4.449 billion in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange[5] - The top three sectors for capital inflow were automotive parts, chemical products, and general equipment, while the sectors with the largest outflows included securities, liquor, and state-owned large banks[5] Economic Policies - The Ministry of Commerce emphasized the importance of enhancing the coverage and attractiveness of the tax refund policy for inbound consumption, aiming to boost overall consumption and economic recovery[6][7] - The European Central Bank indicated that the current interest rate cut cycle is nearing its end, contingent on inflation returning to the 2% target[8] Industry Trends - In April, China's express delivery development index grew by 6.5% year-on-year, reflecting enhanced collaboration between express companies and modern agriculture[10] - Xinhua Fund announced a self-purchase of 10 million in its fund, joining 13 other fund managers with a total self-purchase amount exceeding 5.5 billion since April 8[14]

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Post Securities indicates a positive outlook for consumer investment opportunities, highlighting both cyclical recovery and new consumption trends as key areas of focus for investors [1] Group 1: Travel and Tourism Data - During the May Day holiday, 314 million domestic trips were made, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, with total spending reaching 180.27 billion yuan, up 8.0% year-on-year [1] - The average spending per person was 574 yuan, reflecting a 1.5% increase year-on-year, indicating a simultaneous rise in both consumption volume and price [1][4] Group 2: Retail and Dining Performance - Key retail and dining enterprises saw sales increase by 6.3% year-on-year during the holiday, with significant growth in home appliances (15.5%), automobiles (13.7%), and communication equipment (10.5%) [5] - E-commerce platforms reported over 20% growth in smart home product sales, while dining enterprises experienced an 8.7% increase in sales [5] Group 3: Cross-Border Travel Trends - Inbound travel orders surged over 170% during the holiday, with predictions of 2.15 million daily cross-border movements, a 27% increase compared to the previous year [3] Group 4: Consumer Recovery Insights - The report suggests that the current consumer data indicates a gradual recovery, with the need for further confirmation from upcoming holiday data [6][8] - The combination of various consumer policies, such as trade-in programs and dining vouchers, has significantly stimulated consumption [5][8] Group 5: Overall Consumer Sentiment - The overall sentiment indicates that consumption is gradually warming, with expectations for a transition from short-term stabilization to a more comprehensive recovery [7][8] - The report emphasizes that while the recovery is on the right track, it will require time to fully materialize [8]

Group 1 - The low volatility ETF (512890) increased by 0.81% on May 7, with a trading volume of 276 million yuan, marking three consecutive days of net inflows and reaching a new high in shares at 14.351 billion, with a total scale of 15.914 billion yuan [1] - The head of the Financial Regulatory Bureau stated that the banking and insurance sectors are operating in an orderly manner, with key regulatory indicators remaining healthy, indicating a solid foundation for large financial institutions and significant progress in the reform of small and medium-sized financial institutions [1] - Key indicators such as the capital adequacy ratio of banks and the solvency ratio of insurance companies have shown a stable upward trend, with the non-performing loan ratio decreasing by approximately 0.1 percentage points year-on-year and the provision coverage ratio increasing by about 10 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 2 - Xiangcai Securities highlighted the implementation of the "timely reserve requirement and interest rate cuts" policy, which aims to support technology innovation, expand consumption, and promote inclusive finance, providing a clear path for stabilizing the real estate and stock markets [2] - The A-share market is expected to continue operating in a "slow bull" manner in 2025, driven by the overlap of the new "National Nine Articles" policy and a similar "4 trillion" investment trend [2] - Investment focus areas include technology, green initiatives, consumption, and infrastructure, with short-term attention on dividend-related sectors and consumption fields benefiting from expanded domestic demand [2] Group 3 - Huachuang Securities emphasized the importance of absolute yield and cost-effectiveness of dividend assets, recommending stocks with improved dividend attributes post-annual reports [3] - Stable dividend assets include banking and transportation, while quality dividend assets comprise food and beverage, and home appliances [3] - The current market environment favors dividend cash flow assets, particularly in consumer resource sectors that are less affected by tariffs, indicating a strong absolute yield potential [3] Group 4 - Investors can consider the low volatility ETF (512890) and its associated funds (Class A 007466, Class C 007467, Y share 022951) for investment opportunities [4]

证券研究报告：社会服务|点评报告 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 7997.15 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 9343.57 | | 52 周最低 | | 5985.5 | 行业相对指数表现（相对值） -22% -18% -14% -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 22% 2024-05 2024-07 2024-09 2024-12 2025-02 2025-04 社会服务 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:李鑫鑫 SAC 登记编号:S1340525010006 Email:lixinxin@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《三问三答再看政策，全面看好消费 机会》 - 2025.03.18 五一消费数据如何？ ⚫ 事件 经文化和旅游部数据中心测算，五一假期 5 天，全国国内出游 3.14 亿人次，同比增长 6.4%；国内出游总花费 1802.69 亿元，同比 增长 8.0%。我们折算人均花费为 574 元，同比增长 1.5%，五一消费 量价齐升。 ⚫ 投资要点 零售餐饮：以旧 ...