但问题来了，急着开会，就能解决问题吗？说句实在话，难。非常难。不是说大家不想摆脱依赖，而是 这条路根本不是一年两年能走完的。矿在哪、谁来挖、谁来炼、谁来投钱、谁愿意担风险，每一步都绕 不开现实。嘴上喊得再响 事情本身不复杂。美国财政部长牵头，私下里点名，说现在形势紧张，时间不等人。因为现实摆在那， 中国在铜、锂、钴、石墨、稀土这些领域，提炼比例高得吓人，很多都在一半以上。有些甚至接近九 成。这些东西用在哪？军工、芯片、新能源、电池，哪一样不是命门。美国和盟友嘴上不说，心里都清 楚，这要是真被卡脖子，后果不好看。 突发消息一出，华盛顿那边就坐不住了。美国牵头，把一堆国家急匆匆叫到一起开会，核心就一句话： 别再这么依赖中国的关键矿产了，得赶紧想办法"脱钩"。这场会来的人不少，七国集团、欧盟，还有澳 大利亚、印度、韩国、墨西哥，加起来占了全球六成的关键矿产需求。阵仗不小，语气也急，说白了就 是怕了。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current AI+ high beta still has support, but a more balanced investment approach is recommended, focusing on performance improvements in AI hardware and opportunities in AI application sectors with lower institutional positions [1] - The first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan should emphasize new themes transitioning to main lines, such as commercial aerospace and brain-computer interfaces [1] - The current market trend is characterized by a dual focus on technology and cycles, with price increase clues and anti-involution support making cyclical styles promising [1] Group 2 - The hardware cycle discussion highlights the concept of "stronger becoming stronger" and the potential for valuation digestion if ΔG shows signs of weakness, although no significant turning point for ΔG has been observed yet [1] - The 2000 US tech bubble serves as a reminder that during the bubble formation phase, many tech companies experienced rapid valuation increases disconnected from actual profitability, driven by blind expectations and emotions [2] - The "6+6" model illustrates the process from bubble to disillusionment, emphasizing that true market survivors possess technological leadership, clear profit paths, and sound capital management [2] Group 3 - The end of the mobile internet era in A-shares from 2013 to 2015 reflects a similar disconnect between valuation and profitability, with weak macro cycles leading to concentrated trading in high-demand sectors [3] - The acceleration of leveraged funds contributed to a lack of safety margins in valuations, and the sustainability of industry competition and business models became critical considerations post-bubble [3]

Core Viewpoint - A new bull market has begun since September 24, 2024, driven by significant policy easing, abundant liquidity, and a new wave of technological revolution, termed the "Confidence Bull" [2][31][34]. Group 1: Characteristics of the Bull Market - This bull market is described as a once-in-a-decade event, comparable to previous major bull markets in 2004-2007 and 2014-2015, with the current market driven by policy easing and technological advancements [4][34]. - The bull market has already seen substantial gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 45.5% and the ChiNext Index by 109.8% from September 24, 2024, to January 12, 2026 [7][35]. - Trading volume has surged from a few hundred billion before September 2024 to over 3 trillion recently, indicating a significant increase in market activity [9][37]. Group 2: Drivers of the Bull Market - The bull market is supported by three main drivers: continuous policy easing, a new technological revolution, and abundant liquidity, creating a combination of policy, technology, and liquidity-driven confidence [11][37]. - Policy easing has included interest rate cuts, relaxed housing market restrictions, and substantial fiscal measures, which have significantly boosted market risk appetite [38]. - The technological revolution is characterized by advancements in artificial intelligence, semiconductors, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals, leading to a strong performance in high-risk growth sectors [12][38]. Group 3: Historical Missions of the Bull Market - The bull market is expected to support the development of new productive forces, assist in major power competition, and repair household balance sheets, highlighting its strategic importance [15][41]. - It aims to provide capital market support for new economy sectors, which often struggle to secure financing through traditional banking systems [41]. - The bull market is also seen as a means to counteract the negative wealth effects from the real estate market downturn, with the A-share market's value increasing from under 70 trillion to over 100 trillion, creating a wealth effect of over 30 trillion [16][42]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The sustainability of the bull market will depend on continued macroeconomic policy easing, including further interest rate cuts and fiscal measures to stimulate demand [44]. - There is a need for effective regulation of leverage in the market to ensure healthy development, given the characteristics of the A-share market, which is primarily retail investor-driven [45][46]. - The potential for a long-term bull market could significantly impact the recovery of consumer spending and the real estate market, particularly in major cities [42][44].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to show significant structural differentiation in 2025, reflecting profound changes in industry prosperity and China's economic structure. The trend of economic transformation and upgrading is anticipated to deepen in 2026, potentially driving improvements in corporate profitability and supporting market upward momentum [1][2]. Group 1: Market Structure and Performance - In 2025, sectors such as technology, high-end manufacturing, and non-ferrous metals are expected to perform strongly, while consumer sectors may lag. The market capitalization of technology manufacturing sectors like electronics, power equipment, machinery, and military industry has increased by nearly 5 percentage points since the beginning of the year, indicating a shift in market structure [1]. - The changes in market structure reflect varying industry prosperity and suggest that technology manufacturing may become a driving force in China's economy [1]. Group 2: Corporate Profitability and Market Drivers - Corporate profitability, as indicated by the return on equity (ROE), has stabilized for four consecutive quarters, with a slight improvement noted in Q3 2025. This improvement in profitability is expected to provide new momentum for the stock market [2]. - The primary factor driving the A-share market upward in 2025 is valuation enhancement, while in 2026, the market's upward momentum is likely to shift from valuation recovery to being driven by fundamentals [2]. Group 3: Industry Focus and Future Trends - In 2026, the A-share market is expected to continue its structural differentiation, with a focus on technology, advanced manufacturing, domestic consumption, and overseas industrial chains amid economic transformation [2]. - The technology and advanced manufacturing sectors, particularly those related to artificial intelligence, are currently in a phase of significant capital expenditure to enhance large model applications. China is deeply involved in various segments of the AI industry chain and holds a competitive advantage in key areas such as large models and computing power [2]. - The consumer sector, particularly food and beverage, is gradually showing long-term investment appeal after nearly five years of adjustment, with expectations for related policy implementations to support domestic demand [2]. - The overseas industrial chain is also seen as a sector with long-term potential, with exports performing well in 2025, showcasing China's strong competitive edge due to its comprehensive industrial system and engineering talent [3].

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 证券代码：688282 证券简称：理工导航 公告编号：2026-001 ● 经营业绩亏损的相关风险。2024年度公司归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润-877.50万 元。2025年1-9月归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润为-716.52万元。公司特别提醒投资 者注意经营业绩相关风险。 北京理工导航控制科技股份有限公司 股票交易异常波动暨风险提示公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性依法承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ● 北京理工导航控制科技股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"或"本公司"）股票于2026年1月9日、2026年1 月12日连续两个交易日收盘价格涨幅偏离值累计达到30%，根据《上海证券交易所交易规则》的有关规 定，属于股票交易异常波动情形。 ● 经公司自查并发函问询公司控股股东、实际控制人，截至本公告披露日，公司日常经营情况正常，未 发生重大变化。公司不存在应披露而未披露的重大信息。 ● 公司的主要产品及服务包括惯性导航系统、惯性导航系统核心部件、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market continues to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a 10-year high and a record trading volume of 3.64 trillion yuan, driven by the booming commercial aerospace and AI applications sectors, leading to significant gains in military-related stocks [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index recorded a 17-day winning streak, reaching a new 10-year high on January 12 [1]. - The total market turnover hit a historical high of 3.64 trillion yuan [1]. - The military ETF, Huabao (512810), saw a surge with multiple stocks rising over 10%, including four stocks hitting the daily limit of 20% [1][4]. Group 2: Military Sector Dynamics - The military ETF Huabao (512810) includes 24 commercial aerospace concept stocks, with a combined weight exceeding 32% [3]. - The ETF's performance has been strong, with a daily increase of 5.97%, marking its largest single-day gain in over a year [4]. - The recent surge in military stocks is attributed to significant developments in commercial aerospace and AI applications, including a large-scale application for satellite resources [2][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts express optimism about the military sector, citing a global space race and increased defense budgets as catalysts for growth [7][8]. - The military sector is expected to benefit from national policy support and advancements in new technologies, particularly in commercial aerospace and high-end unmanned systems [7]. - The global military trade market is anticipated to grow, with China's market share expected to increase significantly in the coming years [8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1][9] Core Insights - The military industry has expanded significantly, now encompassing civil aviation, low-altitude economy, information security, military trade, commercial aerospace, and civil shipping, leading to a substantial increase in market space and potential ceiling [5] - The military industry is experiencing a robust market performance, with the military index reaching a ten-year high of 11597.90, reflecting a 130.27% increase [6] - The report highlights the importance of the "Big Military" concept, which opens up higher ceilings for the industry beyond traditional military needs [5] Summary by Sections - **Market Performance**: The military index has shown strong growth, with a historical high in weekly trading volume, indicating a bullish market sentiment [6][8] - **Future Outlook**: The report suggests that the military industry will continue to adapt to changes in production relationships and competitive landscapes, leading to the emergence of more dynamic industry players [5] - **Investment Opportunities**: The report identifies several key areas for investment, including low-altitude economy, military trade, and commercial aerospace, which are expected to drive future growth [5][6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the A-share market is more sensitive to liquidity than to macro fundamentals, indicating a structural bull market driven by capital influx rather than corporate performance [3][4][5] - The overall revenue and net profit growth of non-financial listed companies in the first three quarters was only 0.7% and 1.92% respectively, contrasting with the over 20% growth expected for the entire year, highlighting a disconnect between market performance and corporate earnings [4] - The article identifies two types of capital influencing the market: one based on fundamental performance expectations and the other driven by momentum effects, leading to a "stronger gets stronger" dynamic in stock performance [5][6] Group 2 - True momentum sectors are characterized by sustainable growth logic and broad industry trends, supported by measurable performance variables, while pseudo-momentum sectors rely on speculative assumptions and are often driven by market sentiment [10][11] - The article discusses the distinction between true and pseudo momentum, noting that true momentum sectors have strong institutional participation and consistent earnings growth, while pseudo momentum sectors often lack fundamental backing and are more volatile [12][13] - The performance of momentum strategies in the A-share market has been inconsistent, with cross-sectional momentum strategies underperforming due to rapid sector rotations and frequent policy changes [17][18] Group 3 - The article suggests that the market dynamics in 2025 will be more challenging for investors compared to the 2019-2021 period, where both cross-sectional and time-series momentum strategies were effective due to strong macro fundamentals and diverse sector performance [20][21] - It highlights that the lack of counterbalancing sectors in the A-share market has led to extreme price movements, where strong sectors experience rapid increases followed by sharp declines [24] - The article provides four recommendations for investors to navigate the current momentum-driven market, emphasizing the importance of recognizing sector differentiation, maintaining confidence in fundamentally strong stocks, and being sensitive to trend reversal signals [27][30]

Group 1 - The sudden news of rare earth supply cuts led to a significant collapse in Japan's military sector, with a loss of over 1 trillion yen in just two minutes, highlighting the severe impact on Japan's high-end manufacturing industry [1] - Japan's reliance on China for critical industrial raw materials, such as neodymium and dysprosium, has been exposed, as the country lacks domestic production capabilities for these essential elements [1][3] - The Japanese government faces a daunting challenge in rebuilding its rare earth supply chain, with environmental regulations potentially delaying new projects until 2035, and the cost of reducing dependence on China estimated in trillions of yen [3] Group 2 - South Korea has successfully secured long-term contracts for battery-grade lithium hydroxide, demonstrating a more pragmatic approach to international relations and supply chain management compared to Japan [3][4] - Japan's stock market response indicates a significant capital outflow, with foreign investments in Seoul reaching record levels, while the yen continues to weaken against the dollar [4] - The U.S. has not provided the expected support for Japan's rare earth strategy, leading to concerns about the reliability of the U.S.-Japan alliance in times of crisis [4][6] Group 3 - The current situation serves as a lesson for middle powers about the importance of controlling upstream resources in global supply chains, as those who manage these resources hold significant leverage [6] - Japan's historical reliance on external sources for critical materials has led to a precarious position, with the country now facing a choice between silence on regional issues or enduring a military supply crisis [6]

Group 1 - The A-share market has started 2026 with a strong bullish trend, marked by a historic 17 consecutive days of gains in the Shanghai Composite Index [1][7] - The trading volume has significantly increased, surpassing 30 trillion yuan for two consecutive days, indicating a phase of rising prices and volumes, officially launching the spring offensive [1][7] - The current bull market is seen as a once-in-a-decade investment opportunity, with a substantial shift of household savings towards the capital market due to low bank deposit rates [1][7] Group 2 - The real estate market is still in an adjustment phase, with a fundamental change in expectations for housing price increases, particularly in second and third-tier cities [2][8] - The market has broken through the 4150-point mark, moving away from key integer levels and forming an upward trend, with a slow bull market expected to last 3 to 5 years or longer [2][8] - Investment opportunities are anticipated to expand beyond technology and banking sectors to include consumer staples, new energy leaders, non-ferrous metals, and military industries, enhancing the market's profitability [2][8] Group 3 - The current bull market is tasked with three historical missions: enhancing household wealth, stabilizing the real estate market through stock market wealth effects, and supporting the development of new productive forces, particularly in technology innovation [3][9] - Emerging industries such as commercial aerospace and brain-computer interfaces are showing active performance, with expectations for continued strength in technology sectors like robotics and semiconductors in 2026 [3][9] Group 4 - Investment in technology stocks, especially leading companies, should be viewed within the context of the AI revolution, representing a long-term trend opportunity [4][10] - The Hong Kong stock market has also seen a significant rebound, indicating a similar slow bull market trend as in the A-share market, with expanding investment opportunities [4][11]